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Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB (SE:SCA.B)
:SCA.B

Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB (SCA.B) AI Stock Analysis

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SE:SCA.B

Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB

(SCA.B)

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Neutral 59 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
kr128.00
▲(8.98% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/01/26
The score is anchored by a strong, low-leverage balance sheet but held back by weaker recent operating performance and inconsistent cash-flow conversion. Technical indicators also point to pronounced negative momentum, while valuation looks somewhat expensive given the P/E, with only moderate support from the dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
SCA's very low, stable leverage and sizable equity provide durable financial flexibility through cyclical downturns. This balance-sheet resilience supports capital allocation, capital expenditure and partnership commitments without forcing distress asset sales or heavy refinancing in stressed markets.
Sustainable, Diversified Business Model
SCA's diversified wood-based portfolio and focus on sustainability create structural advantages: premium pricing for eco-friendly offerings and long-term industrial partnerships. These characteristics support steady demand, market access and pricing resilience against commodity-only competitors.
Consistent Operating Cash Flow
Consistently positive operating cash flow signals ongoing cash generation from core operations, enabling the company to fund working capital and operational needs internally. Over time this supports operational continuity and reduces reliance on external financing during normal cycles.
Negative Factors
Recent Margin Deterioration
A swing to negative gross and operating profits indicates material margin pressure from costs or adverse pricing. This is a durable risk: persistent input-cost mismatches or structural pricing weakness can erode earnings power, capital returns and the ability to sustain investments or dividends.
Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion
Historically weak and volatile FCF conversion limits the company's ability to reinvest, pay down debt or return capital reliably. Over a multi-quarter horizon, this reduces strategic optionality, raises vulnerability to prolonged margin squeezes, and constrains durable shareholder returns.
Revenue and ROE Volatility
Significant revenue swings and a halving of return on equity signal unstable demand and reduced capital productivity. Persistently volatile top-line and falling ROE can hamper long-term planning, lower reinvestment returns and weaken competitive positioning versus more stable peers.

Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB (SCA.B) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSvenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ), a forest products company, develops, produces, and sells forest, wood, pulp, and containerboard products. The company offers various wood products, industrial components, standard wood products, and raw materials, as well as logistic, warehouse, and IT solutions for the wood industry. It also provides pulp products under the Pure, Star, and Cirrus names; and Kraftliner products for consumer durables, electronics, hazardous goods, industrial products, fruit and vegetables, frozen foods, etc. In addition, the company offers forwarding services for various transport modes, such as truck, rail, and barge, as well as marine and road and rail transport; terminal services; and liquid and solid biofuels, pellets, stall pellets, and wind energy. Further, it engages in the processing and distribution of wood products; production of Kraft and chemical thermomechanical pulps, and containerboards; and generation of energy from wind power projects, biomass, and by-products. The company has operation in Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally. Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Sundsvall, Sweden.
How the Company Makes MoneySCA generates revenue through several key streams related to its diverse product offerings. The company's primary revenue source comes from the sale of timber and wood products, which are supplied to the construction and manufacturing industries. Additionally, SCA produces pulp and paper products that are sold to various sectors, including packaging and consumer goods. The company's focus on sustainability allows it to command premium pricing for its eco-friendly products. Furthermore, SCA benefits from long-term partnerships with major players in the paper and packaging industries, enhancing its market position and ensuring a steady demand for its products. The company's strategic investments in innovation and efficiency also contribute to its profitability, allowing it to reduce costs and improve margins.

Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial resilience is supported by a strong balance sheet (low, stable leverage and sizable equity), but operating performance has weakened. Recent years show margin compression and volatile revenue, with the latest period flagging negative gross and operating profit despite positive net income, and cash conversion/free cash flow generation has been inconsistent.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Profitability remains solid for the industry with consistently positive net income and healthy EBITDA margins across most years, but momentum has clearly cooled. Revenue growth has been volatile (down in 2023, modest rebound in 2024, and a sharp decline in 2025), and profitability has compressed materially versus the 2021–2022 peak (net margin falling from ~32% in 2021–2022 to ~16% in 2025). A major red flag in the latest annual period is the negative gross profit and negative operating profit, which suggests cost pressure and/or one-time items impacting reported results despite still-positive net income.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The balance sheet is a clear strength. Leverage is low and stable with debt-to-equity consistently around ~0.12–0.15, and equity is large relative to the asset base, providing resilience through a cyclical earnings backdrop. Returns on equity were strong in 2021–2022 (~7%) but have stepped down to ~3–3.5% in 2023–2025, indicating weaker profitability rather than financial stress.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash generation is positive but less convincing than earnings quality implies. Operating cash flow has been consistently positive, yet it covers only a modest portion of net income in recent years (roughly ~0.39–0.53 in 2023–2025), and free cash flow is relatively low versus net income (about ~0.06–0.38 over the period, ~0.30 in 2025). Free cash flow has also been volatile, including a steep decline in 2025, which raises questions about reinvestment needs and the durability of cash conversion during weaker pricing/cost cycles.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue20.43B20.23B18.08B20.79B18.82B
Gross Profit-365.00M17.10B12.51B17.96B15.59B
EBITDA6.57B7.19B6.83B10.22B9.08B
Net Income3.21B3.64B3.67B6.75B5.94B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets146.46B149.26B147.95B137.35B118.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments590.00M1.33B502.00M836.00M1.06B
Total Debt14.94B14.58B12.77B12.21B9.87B
Total Liabilities44.94B45.23B43.67B41.00B35.18B
Stockholders Equity101.52B104.03B104.28B96.36B83.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.20B1.31B759.00M364.00M863.00M
Operating Cash Flow4.02B3.49B3.89B6.33B5.97B
Investing Cash Flow-2.60B-1.70B-3.10B-6.52B-4.93B
Financing Cash Flow-2.14B-959.00M-1.12B-30.00M-1.27B

Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price117.45
Price Trends
50DMA
119.59
Negative
100DMA
121.28
Negative
200DMA
123.77
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.70
Positive
RSI
41.66
Neutral
STOCH
45.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:SCA.B, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 117.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 120.32, below the 50-day MA of 119.59, and below the 200-day MA of 123.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:SCA.B.

Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
kr55.34B18.975.02%2.60%-1.15%2.30%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
61
Neutral
kr55.34B19.282.59%-1.15%2.30%
59
Neutral
kr82.49B26.923.38%2.49%6.10%-3.62%
58
Neutral
kr94.06B12.662.50%3.43%78.62%
55
Neutral
kr94.06B12.553.46%3.43%78.62%
53
Neutral
kr19.78B28.884.43%3.81%2.55%98.53%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SE:SCA.B
Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB
117.45
-25.85
-18.04%
SE:BILL
BillerudKorsnas AB
79.55
-35.12
-30.63%
SE:HOLM.A
Holmen AB
346.00
-54.45
-13.60%
SE:STE.A
Stora Enso Oyj
123.50
14.81
13.63%
SE:STE.R
Stora Enso Oyj
119.20
10.18
9.33%
SE:HOLM.B
Holmen AB
348.20
-56.40
-13.94%

Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB Corporate Events

SCA Share Conversion Shifts Balance Between Class A and Class B Stock
Feb 27, 2026

Svenska Cellulosa SCA has reported a February share conversion in which 1,000,000 Class A shares were converted into Class B shares at the request of shareholders. The move, carried out under the company’s articles of association, lowers the overall voting power attached to Class A stock and slightly reshapes the balance of influence among investors.

Following the transaction, SCA’s total number of votes stands at 1,250,140,359, while the number of registered shares remains 702,342,489, now split between 60,866,430 Class A shares and 641,476,059 Class B shares. The adjustment underscores continuing shareholder use of the conversion mechanism, which can support liquidity in the more widely traded Class B shares while diluting the concentration of voting rights.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SCA.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK128.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB stock, see the SE:SCA.B Stock Forecast page.

SCA Sets March Date and Voting Procedures for 2026 Annual General Meeting
Feb 16, 2026

Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA has convened its 2026 Annual General Meeting for March 27 in Sundsvall, offering shareholders the choice of attending in person or exercising their voting rights by postal or electronic voting. To participate, shareholders must be recorded in the Euroclear Sweden share register as of March 19 and must register their attendance or submit valid postal votes, including any necessary powers of attorney and authorization documents, by March 23.

The company outlines detailed procedures for participation at the venue, including registration timelines and documentation requirements for proxies and legal entities. It also specifies that postal voting requires a dedicated form or BankID-verified electronic submission, with any conditional or specially instructed postal votes deemed invalid, underscoring the firm’s focus on orderly, compliant governance ahead of the meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SCA.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK141.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB stock, see the SE:SCA.B Stock Forecast page.

SCA Corrects European NBSK Pulp Hike to $1,710 per Tonne
Feb 13, 2026

SCA has corrected details of its planned price increase for Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft pulp in Europe, clarifying that the new list price will be 1,710 USD per tonne, up 100 USD, for March deliveries and invoicing. The revision replaces an earlier, incorrect figure of 1,700 USD and signals continued firmness in European pulp markets, with potential margin benefits for SCA and cost implications for its downstream paper and packaging customers.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SCA.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK116.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB stock, see the SE:SCA.B Stock Forecast page.

SCA Lifts European NBSK Pulp Price as Market Tightens
Feb 13, 2026

Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB, the Swedish forest products group built on Europe’s largest private forest holding, runs an integrated value chain centered on renewable raw materials, supplying packaging paper, pulp, sawn wood, renewable energy, services to forest owners and efficient transport solutions. The company employs about 3,500 people, posts roughly SEK 20 billion in revenue and is headquartered in Sundsvall.

SCA announced it will raise the price of its Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK) pulp sold in Europe to 1,700 dollars per tonne, an increase of 100 dollars effective for March deliveries and invoicing. The move signals firmer market conditions for softwood pulp in the region and could lift SCA’s margins while increasing input costs for downstream paper and packaging producers that rely on NBSK as a key raw material.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SCA.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK116.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB stock, see the SE:SCA.B Stock Forecast page.

SCA Holds Sales and Dividend as Currency and Price Pressures Squeeze 2025 Earnings
Jan 30, 2026

SCA reported essentially flat full-year 2025 net sales of SEK 20.4 billion as higher volumes and prices were offset by adverse currency moves, while EBITDA fell 8% and the margin narrowed to 32.1% due to negative exchange rates and higher raw material costs. Despite lower operating profit, earnings per share and cash flow, the board maintained the dividend at SEK 3.00 per share, underlining confidence in the company’s financial resilience. Fourth-quarter results weakened both year-on-year and sequentially, with net sales and EBITDA down sharply as lower selling prices and currency headwinds weighed on profitability, particularly in solid-wood, pulp and packaging materials, amid a weak macro environment, trade barriers and volatile FX. SCA’s integrated supply chain and strong wood self-sufficiency helped contain input cost pressures, and major investments in growth segments are being ramped up to bolster future cash flow and competitiveness, even as the valuation of its Swedish forest assets declined slightly on lower market price assumptions. Market conditions varied across segments, with soft demand in Europe and the US for pulp and solid-wood products but firmer demand in China and e-commerce-related packaging, while biofuels markets strengthened and wind-power lease revenues remained stable, reflecting the diversified income base built around SCA’s extensive forest land.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SCA.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK128.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB stock, see the SE:SCA.B Stock Forecast page.

SCA CEO Steps In as Interim Head of Containerboard and Pulp After Leadership Change
Jan 30, 2026

SCA has announced a leadership change in its Group Management, as Petteri Kalela will leave his position as Head of Business Areas Containerboard and Pulp by 30 January 2026, following a mutual agreement with the company. President and CEO Ulf Larsson will assume the role of interim head of these business areas while the company immediately launches a recruitment process for a permanent successor, with Kalela and SCA working together to secure a smooth transition, underscoring the company’s focus on continuity in two strategically important segments.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SCA.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK128.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB stock, see the SE:SCA.B Stock Forecast page.

SCA Announces Leadership Change in Sustainability and Communications
Jan 15, 2026

SCA announced a leadership change as Senior Vice President Sustainability and Communications, Anders Edholm, will leave the company in 2026 to take up a role elsewhere, remaining in his position until 31 July 2026. The company has launched an immediate recruitment process for his successor, a move that underscores the strategic importance of sustainability and communications in SCA’s governance and may be closely watched by stakeholders given the central role these functions play in the group’s long-term positioning in the forest products and renewable materials sector.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SCA.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB stock, see the SE:SCA.B Stock Forecast page.

SCA Announces Leadership Change in Sustainability and Communications
Jan 15, 2026

SCA announced a leadership change as Senior Vice President Sustainability and Communications, Anders Edholm, will leave the company in 2026 to take up a role elsewhere, remaining in his position until 31 July 2026. The company has launched an immediate recruitment process for his successor, a move that underscores the strategic importance of sustainability and communications in SCA’s governance and may be closely watched by stakeholders given the central role these functions play in the group’s long-term positioning in the forest products and renewable materials sector.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SCA.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB stock, see the SE:SCA.B Stock Forecast page.

SCA to Present Q4 2025 Results in Webcast Press Conference on January 30
Dec 30, 2025

SCA has announced that it will publish its fourth-quarter 2025 interim report on January 30, 2026, followed by a webcast press conference the same day at 10:00 CET. President and CEO Ulf Larsson and CFO Andreas Ewertz will present the results and take questions, with investors and media able to follow the event via live webcast or by telephone, underscoring the company’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency and engagement with the financial markets and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SCA.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK133.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB stock, see the SE:SCA.B Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 01, 2026