Holmen AB (HOLM.A) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr54.02B
• Dividend Yield: 2.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.25K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: -1.15%
• EPS Growth: 2.30%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 3,500
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): 3.80
• Shares Outstanding: 45,246,468
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,398
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,253
• PEG Ratio: 5.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.99
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.48
• P/FCF Ratio: 31.97
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 16.85
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr21.92B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: kr399.00 ▲(13.68% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/01/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/01/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial resilience from a conservatively levered balance sheet, tempered by weaker profitability/cash conversion versus prior peaks. Technicals are a meaningful drag with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is mid-range with a moderate P/E and a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative Balance Sheet

Holmen's very low debt-to-equity (~0.05–0.11) and substantial equity cushion provide durable financial flexibility. Low leverage decreases refinancing and solvency risk in cyclical forestry markets, enabling continued capex, dividend capacity or opportunistic M&A through downturns.

Vertical Integration & Sustainable Raw Materials

Owning and managing large forest assets plus hydroelectric generation secures raw material supply and diversifies cash flow. This vertical integration reduces input-price exposure, supports long-term margins, and underpins sustainability credentials valued by customers and regulators.

Solid Operating Profitability

Even after cyclical pressure, Holmen's 2025 EBIT (~15%) and EBITDA (~22%) margins and ~13% net margin show structural cost control and pricing power in core wood and paperboard segments, supporting ongoing cash generation and operational resilience.

Negative Factors

Margin Compression Since 2022

Margins have contracted materially from 2022 highs (EBIT ~31% to ~15%). Such structural compression may reflect weaker end-market pricing or cost pressures; prolonged lower margins limit free cash for reinvestment, dividends and reduce return on invested capital.

Weaker Cash Conversion

A ~32% drop in FCF and FCF covering only ~45% of net income reduces Holmen's financial optionality. Lower cash conversion constrains capex funding, dividend sustainability and debt reduction plans, making the business more dependent on margin recovery for balance sheet improvement.

Stagnant to Declining Revenue

Top-line was roughly flat in 2024 and declined ~1.5% in 2025 (Fundamentals shows ~-3.09% growth metric). Persistent weak revenue growth signals demand headwinds or market-share pressure, limiting operating leverage and making margin recovery harder to convert into higher absolute profits.

Holmen AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Holmen AB (publ) produces and sells paperboards, papers, wood products, and renewable energy in Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and paperboard and paper mills; and manages forests, which cover approximately one million hectares. Its Paperboard segment provides paperboards for consumer packaging to brand owners, converters, and wholesalers. The company's Paper segment offers papers for books, magazines, printed advertising, and packaging to publishers, printing firms, and retailers. Its Wood Products segment provides construction and joinery timber, CLT and glulam products, and wood for pallets and packaging to construction, joinery, and packaging industries, as well as builders' merchants; and operates sawmills. The company's Renewable Energy segment operates 21 hydro power stations; and wind farms with a capacity of approximately 1.2 TWh of electricity. Holmen AB (publ) was founded in 1609 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Holmen AB generates revenue primarily through the sale of its products across its various business segments. Key revenue streams include the production and sale of paper and paperboard products, which cater to packaging and printing markets, and the sale of wood products, including sawn timber and engineered wood products. Additionally, Holmen benefits from its extensive forest holdings, which provide a sustainable source of raw materials and contribute to carbon sequestration. The company also generates income from renewable energy operations, particularly through hydroelectric power generation. Significant partnerships with businesses in packaging and construction sectors enhance its market reach and stability, contributing to overall earnings.

Holmen AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong balance sheet strength (low leverage, substantial equity cushion) supports resilience, but income statement trends show margin compression from 2022 peaks and cash flow quality has weakened with materially lower free cash flow and reduced earnings-to-cash conversion.

Income Statement

Revenue has been essentially flat to down recently (2024 roughly flat; 2025 down ~1.5%), and profitability has clearly cooled from the 2022 peak. Operating profitability remains solid (2025 EBIT margin ~15% and EBITDA margin ~22%) but is well below 2022 levels (EBIT margin ~31%, EBITDA margin ~37%), suggesting a weaker pricing/cycle backdrop. Net margin is still healthy (~13% in 2025), but the sharp drop in gross margin in 2025 is a notable red flag versus prior years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively levered, with low debt relative to equity across the period (debt-to-equity ~0.05–0.11; ~0.10 in 2025). Equity is substantial versus total assets, providing a strong cushion through industry cycles. Returns on equity are moderate (about 5% recently, versus ~10% in 2022), which is more a profitability/cycle issue than a leverage problem; the main watch item is debt rising in 2025 versus 2024 even though leverage remains low overall.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, but consistency has weakened versus the 2022–2023 period. Operating cash flow improved in 2025 versus 2024, yet free cash flow fell materially in 2025 (down ~32%) and free cash flow covers less than half of net income in 2025 (~45%), indicating earnings are converting to cash less efficiently than in 2022–2023 (~71–75%). Overall, the company still produces meaningful free cash flow, but the recent step-down raises questions about near-term cash conversion and spending needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.06B	22.76B	22.80B	23.95B	19.48B
Gross Profit	366.00M	10.24B	12.12B	13.75B	9.83B
EBITDA	4.76B	5.15B	6.16B	8.85B	5.00B
Net Income	2.88B	2.86B	3.70B	5.87B	3.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	80.86B	81.55B	79.72B	81.44B	68.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	390.00M	234.00M	1.20B	1.94B	507.00M
Total Debt	5.74B	3.68B	3.17B	3.15B	4.34B
Total Liabilities	25.46B	24.18B	22.80B	24.49B	21.11B
Stockholders Equity	55.41B	57.37B	56.92B	56.95B	46.99B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.71B	1.20B	4.10B	4.09B	1.52B
Operating Cash Flow	3.85B	3.32B	5.80B	5.48B	3.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.12B	-2.07B	-1.65B	-1.35B	-1.31B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.58B	-2.22B	-4.89B	-2.71B	-1.76B

Holmen AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 351.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:HOLM.A, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 351 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 349.20, above the 50-day MA of 349.76, and below the 200-day MA of 357.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:HOLM.A.

Holmen AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SSAB.B	65 Neutral	kr70.02B	14.16	7.23%	3.80%	-8.04%	-37.18%
HOLM.A	63 Neutral	kr54.02B	19.01	5.12%	2.60%	-1.15%	2.30%
SCA.B	59 Neutral	kr79.13B	26.87	3.09%	2.49%	6.10%	-3.62%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
STE.R	55 Neutral	kr86.77B	12.15	―	3.46%	3.43%	78.62%
BILL	53 Neutral	kr18.53B	32.85	2.55%	3.81%	2.55%	98.53%