BillerudKorsnas AB (BILL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr20.53B
• Dividend Yield: 3.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 535.78K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: 2.55%
• EPS Growth: 98.53%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 5,890
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): 1.22
• Shares Outstanding: 249,611,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 481,672
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 535,777
• PEG Ratio: -0.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.58
• P/FCF Ratio: 43.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr80.00
• Price Target Upside: -3.09% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.83
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr39.81B

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: kr84.00 ▲(1.76% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/02/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/02/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability and a sharp drop in free cash flow, alongside very weak technical momentum with the price far below key moving averages. Offsetting factors include a resilient balance sheet and a relatively high dividend yield, though the P/E remains demanding given current earnings quality.

Positive Factors

Manageable leverage and resilient balance sheet

A debt-to-equity of ~0.28 and a sizable equity base provide structural resilience for a cyclical paper business. This capital structure supports the company’s ability to fund operations, absorb demand shocks, maintain investment capacity and preserve access to financing over the next 2–6 months.

Diversified product mix across packaging and pulp

Serving cartonboard, kraft/sack papers and market pulp spreads demand and price exposure across end markets (consumer goods, industrial, food/pharma). The product diversification and mix of long‑term and spot contracts reduce single-market dependency and support steadier revenue under cyclical swings.

Stable gross margins and steady operating cash flow

High gross margins indicate underlying cost competitiveness or product mix that supports pricing. Operating cash flow remained around ~3.19B, showing the business can generate operational cash even amid weaker earnings, giving medium-term flexibility for capex, working capital and dividends.

Negative Factors

Earnings and margin compression

The sharp drop in net margin reflects increasing below‑the‑line pressure (costs, pricing or non‑operating items). Persistently compressed margins reduce return on equity, limit reinvestment capacity and make earnings more vulnerable to modest volume or price declines over the coming months.

Sharp free cash flow decline

A ~75% YoY fall in free cash flow materially reduces financial flexibility: it constrains deleveraging, share returns and discretionary investment. If driven by working‑capital or reinvestment needs, recovery may take multiple quarters, limiting operational freedom in a cyclical downturn.

Revenue decline and choppy demand environment

A multi‑percent revenue decline signals weaker end‑market demand or pricing pressure. Reduced volumes and a choppy pricing backdrop erode scale benefits and increase earnings volatility, making near‑term margin recovery and cash conversion less certain over the next 2–6 months.

BillerudKorsnas AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BillerudKorsnäs AB (publ) provides fiber based packaging materials and solutions in Sweden and internationally. It operates through three segments: Product area Board, Product area Paper, and Solutions & Other. The company offers kraft papers for medical equipment and food packaging sectors; and sack papers for making sacks. It also provides packaging solutions and systems for brand owners; and manufactures and sells liquid packaging and carton boards, as well as fluting and liners. The company serves packaging manufacturers, brand owners, and large retail and supermarket chains. BillerudKorsnäs AB (publ)was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

BillerudKorsnas AB generates revenue through the sale of various paper products, paperboards, and packaging solutions. The company primarily earns money by supplying high-quality packaging materials that cater to the needs of various industries, ensuring that their products meet sustainability standards. Key revenue streams include the sale of liquid packaging board, containerboard, and specialty papers, which are utilized in food packaging and consumer goods. Additionally, BillerudKorsnas benefits from long-term contracts with major clients and strategic partnerships that enhance its market presence and stability. The company's focus on sustainable practices also attracts environmentally conscious consumers and businesses, potentially leading to increased sales and profitability.

BillerudKorsnas AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: the balance sheet is relatively solid with manageable leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.28), but profitability weakened materially (net margin ~1.8% in 2025 vs. ~4.0% in 2024) and revenue declined (-5.1%). Cash conversion also deteriorated, with free cash flow down sharply to ~0.53B (~75% YoY).

Income Statement

Profitability has weakened materially from the 2022 peak: net margin fell to ~1.8% in 2025 (vs. ~4.0% in 2024 and ~10.8% in 2022), and operating profitability also compressed (EBITDA margin ~9.4% in 2025 vs. ~12.6% in 2024). Revenue declined in 2025 (-5.1%) after modest growth in 2024, indicating a choppy demand/pricing environment. A positive is the consistently solid gross margin level (~47–49% in 2024–2025), but the sharp drop in below-the-line profitability points to cost/price pressure and higher earnings volatility.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and fairly stable, with debt-to-equity around ~0.28 in 2025 (similar to 2023–2024) and a sizable equity base relative to assets. This balance sheet positioning provides resilience for a cyclical paper/forest products business. The main weakness is the decline in shareholder returns as profitability cooled—return on equity dropped to ~2.6% in 2025 from ~6.0% in 2024 (and ~15.7% in 2022), suggesting the balance sheet is sound but currently not being monetized into strong earnings.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed: operating cash flow remained steady in 2025 (~3.19B) versus 2024 (~3.03B), but free cash flow fell sharply to ~0.53B (down ~75% year over year). Free cash flow is also low relative to reported earnings in 2025 (about ~17% of net income), implying heavier reinvestment, working-capital pressure, or less efficient cash conversion. Positively, the company has demonstrated the ability to generate strong cash in better years (e.g., 2021–2022), but the latest year shows reduced flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	40.49B	43.45B	41.22B	42.59B	26.21B
Gross Profit	19.34B	21.17B	18.86B	23.08B	13.36B
EBITDA	3.79B	5.47B	3.33B	8.47B	3.88B
Net Income	711.00M	1.75B	484.00M	4.59B	1.49B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	47.39B	50.23B	47.93B	51.41B	37.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.28B	2.56B	2.30B	2.05B	3.56B
Total Debt	7.72B	7.97B	7.58B	5.43B	6.73B
Total Liabilities	19.65B	21.25B	20.98B	22.16B	17.94B
Stockholders Equity	27.74B	28.98B	26.95B	29.25B	20.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	534.00M	593.00M	113.00M	3.50B	2.37B
Operating Cash Flow	3.19B	3.03B	3.29B	6.83B	3.89B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.64B	-2.41B	-3.13B	-9.42B	-1.50B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.62B	-545.00M	154.00M	895.00M	-1.90B

BillerudKorsnas AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 82.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:BILL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 82.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 79.04, below the 50-day MA of 86.64, and below the 200-day MA of 90.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:BILL.

BillerudKorsnas AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HOLM.A	63 Neutral	kr56.53B	18.97	5.02%	2.60%	-1.15%	2.30%
HOLM.B	61 Neutral	kr56.53B	19.28	―	2.59%	-1.15%	2.30%
SCA.B	59 Neutral	kr86.28B	26.92	3.38%	2.49%	6.10%	-3.62%
STE.A	58 Neutral	kr96.98B	12.66	―	2.50%	3.43%	78.62%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
STE.R	55 Neutral	kr96.98B	12.55	―	3.46%	3.43%	78.62%
BILL	53 Neutral	kr20.53B	28.88	4.43%	3.81%	2.55%	98.53%