BillerudKorsnas AB (BILL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr17.93B
• Dividend Yield: 3.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 535.78K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.72
• Revenue Growth: 2.55%
• EPS Growth: 98.53%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 5,890
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): 1.22
• Shares Outstanding: 249,611,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 481,672
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 535,777
• PEG Ratio: -0.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.84
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.58
• P/FCF Ratio: 43.73
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr97.00
• Price Target Upside: 34.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: kr73.00 ▲(1.25% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability and a sharp drop in free cash flow, alongside very weak technical momentum with the price far below key moving averages. Offsetting factors include a resilient balance sheet and a relatively high dividend yield, though the P/E remains demanding given current earnings quality.

Positive Factors

Manageable leverage and resilient balance sheet

A debt-to-equity near 0.28 and a sizable equity base provide structural resilience for this cyclical forest-products business. This balance-sheet strength supports continued capex, working-capital needs and credit access through downturns, sustaining long-term operational stability.

Strong gross margins

High gross margins indicate structural pricing power or advantaged input/production economics in paperboard and specialty papers. Those margins create a durable buffer to absorb cost inflation, support reinvestment in sustainable products, and underpin recovery of operating profits over time.

Steady operating cash flow generation

Stable operating cash flow even amid EBITDA pressure shows the core business can convert sales to cash. This underpins the company's ability to service debt, fund necessary capex and sustain operations through cycles, and indicates underlying cash-generation capacity when markets normalize.

Negative Factors

Material net margin deterioration

A multi-year collapse in net margin signals deeper profitability issues beyond cyclical swings. Persistently low net margins erode retained earnings and ROE, constrain reinvestment and dividend capacity, and raise the risk that structural pricing or cost pressures are limiting long-term profitability.

Severe free cash flow compression

A 75% decline in FCF significantly reduces discretionary capital. Even with steady operating cash, materially lower FCF implies heavier reinvestment or working-capital strain, limiting flexibility for capex, debt reduction or shareholder returns and raising funding risk during prolonged weakness.

Revenue decline and choppy demand

A contraction in top-line sales points to weakening end-market demand or pricing pressure in key packaging segments. Sustained revenue declines reduce operating leverage, make margin recovery harder, and suggest the company may face structural demand challenges that impede medium-term growth prospects.

BillerudKorsnas AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BillerudKorsnäs AB (publ) provides fiber based packaging materials and solutions in Sweden and internationally. It operates through three segments: Product area Board, Product area Paper, and Solutions & Other. The company offers kraft papers for medical equipment and food packaging sectors; and sack papers for making sacks. It also provides packaging solutions and systems for brand owners; and manufactures and sells liquid packaging and carton boards, as well as fluting and liners. The company serves packaging manufacturers, brand owners, and large retail and supermarket chains. BillerudKorsnäs AB (publ)was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

BillerudKorsnas AB generates revenue through the sale of various paper products, paperboards, and packaging solutions. The company primarily earns money by supplying high-quality packaging materials that cater to the needs of various industries, ensuring that their products meet sustainability standards. Key revenue streams include the sale of liquid packaging board, containerboard, and specialty papers, which are utilized in food packaging and consumer goods. Additionally, BillerudKorsnas benefits from long-term contracts with major clients and strategic partnerships that enhance its market presence and stability. The company's focus on sustainable practices also attracts environmentally conscious consumers and businesses, potentially leading to increased sales and profitability.

BillerudKorsnas AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: the balance sheet is relatively solid with manageable leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.28), but profitability weakened materially (net margin ~1.8% in 2025 vs. ~4.0% in 2024) and revenue declined (-5.1%). Cash conversion also deteriorated, with free cash flow down sharply to ~0.53B (~75% YoY).

Income Statement

Profitability has weakened materially from the 2022 peak: net margin fell to ~1.8% in 2025 (vs. ~4.0% in 2024 and ~10.8% in 2022), and operating profitability also compressed (EBITDA margin ~9.4% in 2025 vs. ~12.6% in 2024). Revenue declined in 2025 (-5.1%) after modest growth in 2024, indicating a choppy demand/pricing environment. A positive is the consistently solid gross margin level (~47–49% in 2024–2025), but the sharp drop in below-the-line profitability points to cost/price pressure and higher earnings volatility.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and fairly stable, with debt-to-equity around ~0.28 in 2025 (similar to 2023–2024) and a sizable equity base relative to assets. This balance sheet positioning provides resilience for a cyclical paper/forest products business. The main weakness is the decline in shareholder returns as profitability cooled—return on equity dropped to ~2.6% in 2025 from ~6.0% in 2024 (and ~15.7% in 2022), suggesting the balance sheet is sound but currently not being monetized into strong earnings.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is mixed: operating cash flow remained steady in 2025 (~3.19B) versus 2024 (~3.03B), but free cash flow fell sharply to ~0.53B (down ~75% year over year). Free cash flow is also low relative to reported earnings in 2025 (about ~17% of net income), implying heavier reinvestment, working-capital pressure, or less efficient cash conversion. Positively, the company has demonstrated the ability to generate strong cash in better years (e.g., 2021–2022), but the latest year shows reduced flexibility.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	40.49B	43.45B	41.22B	42.59B	26.21B
Gross Profit	19.34B	21.17B	18.86B	23.08B	13.36B
EBITDA	3.79B	5.47B	3.33B	8.47B	3.88B
Net Income	711.00M	1.75B	484.00M	4.59B	1.49B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	47.39B	50.23B	47.93B	51.41B	37.98B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.28B	2.56B	2.30B	2.05B	3.56B
Total Debt	7.72B	7.97B	7.58B	5.43B	6.73B
Total Liabilities	19.65B	21.25B	20.98B	22.16B	17.94B
Stockholders Equity	27.74B	28.98B	26.95B	29.25B	20.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	534.00M	593.00M	113.00M	3.50B	2.37B
Operating Cash Flow	3.19B	3.03B	3.29B	6.83B	3.89B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.64B	-2.41B	-3.13B	-9.42B	-1.50B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.62B	-545.00M	154.00M	895.00M	-1.90B

BillerudKorsnas AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 72.10
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:BILL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 72.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.81, below the 50-day MA of 91.37, and below the 200-day MA of 92.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 19.51 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:BILL.

BillerudKorsnas AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HOLM.A	63 Neutral	kr53.20B	18.11	5.02%	2.60%	-1.15%	2.30%
HOLM.B	61 Neutral	kr53.20B	18.04	―	2.59%	-1.15%	2.30%
SCA.B	59 Neutral	kr78.34B	24.45	3.38%	2.49%	6.10%	-3.62%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
BILL	53 Neutral	kr17.93B	25.22	4.43%	3.81%	2.55%	98.53%
STE.R	51 Neutral	kr81.51B	-463.10	―	3.46%	3.43%	78.62%
STE.A	47 Neutral	kr81.51B	-472.55	―	2.50%	3.43%	78.62%