Holmen AB (HOLM.B) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr55.82B
• Dividend Yield: 2.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 162.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.66
• Revenue Growth: -1.15%
• EPS Growth: 2.30%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 3,500
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): 6.10
• Shares Outstanding: 117,265,854
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 143,474
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 162,484
• PEG Ratio: -1.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.83
• P/FCF Ratio: 53.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr351.00
• Price Target Upside: 1.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: kr376.00 ▲(8.42% Upside)

Holmen AB's overall stock score reflects a strong financial foundation with robust profitability and low leverage. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics indicate the stock is fairly valued. The earnings call presented mixed results, with notable challenges in key segments impacting sentiment.

Positive Factors

Strong Financial Health

Holmen's robust balance sheet and low leverage indicate financial stability, allowing it to withstand market fluctuations and invest in growth opportunities.

Return on Capital Employed

A strong return on capital employed reflects efficient use of resources, enhancing long-term shareholder value and supporting sustainable business operations.

Cash Flow Generation

Improved cash flow generation enhances Holmen's ability to fund operations, invest in new projects, and return capital to shareholders, supporting long-term growth.

Negative Factors

Weak Demand for Wood Products

Weak demand for wood products in key markets like the U.S. and China could impact revenue and profitability, posing a challenge to growth in this segment.

Loss-Making Renewable Energy Segment

Losses in the renewable energy segment due to low electricity prices may hinder profitability and require strategic adjustments to improve financial performance.

Price Pressure in Wood Products

Decreasing prices for wood products can erode margins and profitability, necessitating cost management and strategic pricing to maintain competitiveness.

Holmen AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Holmen AB (publ) produces and sells paperboards, papers, wood products, and renewable energy in Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and paperboard and paper mills; and manages forests, which cover approximately one million hectares. Its Paperboard segment provides paperboards for consumer packaging to brand owners, converters, and wholesalers. The company's Paper segment offers papers for books, magazines, printed advertising, and packaging to publishers, printing firms, and retailers. Its Wood Products segment provides construction and joinery timber, CLT and glulam products, and wood for pallets and packaging to construction, joinery, and packaging industries, as well as builders' merchants; and operates sawmills. The company's Renewable Energy segment operates 21 hydro power stations; and wind farms with a capacity of approximately 1.2 TWh of electricity. Holmen AB (publ) was founded in 1609 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Holmen AB generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from the sale of paper and paperboard products, which are supplied to various industries, including packaging, publishing, and commercial printing. Additionally, the company earns revenue from its wood products segment, which includes sawn timber, engineered wood, and other wood-based materials sold to construction and furniture manufacturers. Holmen also benefits from its forestry operations, where it manages its own forests and sells timber and other raw materials. Furthermore, the company has invested in renewable energy projects, generating additional revenue through the production and sale of energy. Strategic partnerships with other businesses in the supply chain enhance its market reach and efficiency, contributing significantly to Holmen's overall earnings.

Holmen AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Holmen AB demonstrates strong financial health with robust profitability and a solid balance sheet. Despite a slight decline in revenue growth, the company maintains strong margins and low leverage, indicating financial stability. Cash flow generation is improving, although there are some challenges in operational cash coverage.

Income Statement

Holmen AB's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -1.34%. However, the company maintains healthy margins, with a gross profit margin of 48.17% and a net profit margin of 12.02%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also strong at 15.91% and 22.20%, respectively. Despite the recent revenue decline, the company has demonstrated resilience in maintaining profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Holmen AB is robust, with a very low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.004, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The return on equity (ROE) stands at 4.82%, which is moderate but stable. The equity ratio is strong, reflecting a solid capital structure and financial stability. Overall, the balance sheet suggests a well-capitalized company with low financial risk.

Cash Flow

Holmen AB's cash flow statement shows a positive trend in free cash flow growth at 3.60% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.47, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.66, suggesting efficient cash conversion. However, the operating cash flow coverage ratio has decreased compared to previous years, indicating potential challenges in covering operational expenses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.39B	22.76B	22.80B	23.95B	19.48B	16.33B
Gross Profit	8.15B	10.24B	12.12B	13.75B	9.83B	8.04B
EBITDA	4.72B	5.15B	6.16B	8.85B	5.00B	3.67B
Net Income	2.86B	2.86B	3.70B	5.87B	3.00B	1.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	82.95B	81.55B	79.72B	81.44B	68.10B	62.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	174.00M	234.00M	1.20B	1.94B	507.00M	346.00M
Total Debt	5.72B	2.73B	3.17B	3.15B	4.34B	4.69B
Total Liabilities	25.98B	24.18B	22.80B	24.49B	21.11B	20.03B
Stockholders Equity	56.96B	57.37B	56.92B	56.95B	46.99B	42.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.51B	1.20B	4.10B	4.09B	1.52B	1.29B
Operating Cash Flow	3.68B	3.32B	5.80B	5.48B	3.23B	2.46B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.21B	-2.07B	-1.65B	-1.35B	-1.31B	-1.78B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.40B	-2.22B	-4.89B	-2.71B	-1.76B	-808.00M

Holmen AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 346.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:HOLM.B, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 346.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 349.11, below the 50-day MA of 351.27, and below the 200-day MA of 375.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:HOLM.B.

Holmen AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BOL	72 Outperform	kr116.79B	14.16	11.99%	―	8.30%	-8.62%
BILL	70 Outperform	kr21.65B	17.88	4.43%	3.76%	2.55%	98.53%
HOLM.B	66 Neutral	kr55.82B	19.13	―	2.60%	-1.15%	2.30%
SSAB.B	65 Neutral	kr57.66B	11.58	7.29%	3.84%	-8.04%	-37.18%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
SCA.B	61 Neutral	kr86.85B	24.12	3.38%	2.44%	6.10%	-3.62%
STE.R	49 Neutral	kr87.08B	―	―	3.46%	3.43%	78.62%

Holmen AB Corporate Events

Holmen AB Surpasses Shareholding Threshold with Recent Buyback

Holmen AB has announced the repurchase of 150,000 of its own Class B shares, increasing its total holding to 5.06% of the total shares, surpassing the five percent threshold. This move is part of a broader strategy to buy back up to one million shares, aimed at adjusting the capital structure to enhance shareholder value.

Holmen AB Reports Decrease in Operating Profit Amid Industry Challenges

Holmen AB reported a decrease in operating profit for January-September 2025, primarily due to maintenance shutdowns and lower electricity prices in northern Sweden. Despite challenges in the forest industry, including weak demand for construction products and high wood costs, Holmen’s integrated business model allowed it to maintain a solid operating profit. The company is adapting to market conditions by optimizing its forest management and launching new products, such as a packaging product from Braviken Paper Mill, to enhance its competitiveness.

Holmen AB to Release Interim Report and Host Conference

Holmen AB has announced that it will release its interim report for January–September 2025 on October 23. The company will host an online press and analyst conference on the same day, where the President and CEO, Henrik Sjölund, and CFO, Stefan Loréhn, will present and discuss the report. This event is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction.

Holmen AB Announces 2026 Nomination Committee Members

Holmen AB has announced the composition of its Nomination Committee for the period leading up to the 2026 Annual General Meeting. The committee will include the Chairman of the Board and representatives from the company’s three largest shareholders, with Bo Selling serving as the chairman. This move is expected to ensure strategic alignment and shareholder representation in the company’s governance.