Holmen AB (HOLM.B) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr53.20B
• Dividend Yield: 2.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 162.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: -1.15%
• EPS Growth: 2.30%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 3,500
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): 3.80
• Shares Outstanding: 117,265,854
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 143,474
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 162,484
• PEG Ratio: 0.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr318.00
• Price Target Upside: -4.73% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: kr352.00 ▲(5.45% Upside)

The score is supported most by financial resilience (low leverage and strong equity buffer) and a moderately supportive shareholder return profile (dividend increase, mid-level yield). It is held back by weakening profitability and cash-flow conversion in the most recent periods, and a clearly bearish technical setup (below major moving averages with negative MACD), alongside a cautious earnings-call outlook with near-term operational and cost headwinds.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Very low leverage and a large equity buffer give Holmen durable financial resilience in a cyclical industry. This capitalization supports dividend policy, funding for steady CapEx, and shock absorption for storm or timber-price shocks without forcing distress asset sales.

Large owned forest asset base

Owning ~1.3m hectares provides long-term raw material security and vertical integration benefits: stable timber supply, margin capture across the value chain, and an inflation-linked asset base that historically appreciated, supporting earnings and collateral value over multi-year horizons.

Energy division and new wind capacity

New wind capacity and an unhedged, spot-exposed Energy business provide structural diversification and potential recurring upside from higher power prices. Renewable generation reduces reliance on one product cycle and can materially bolster group cash flow when power markets are favorable.

Negative Factors

Deteriorating profitability and margins

Top-line stagnation and a marked gross margin decline in 2025 indicate persistent cost or pricing pressure. Sustained margin compression erodes operating leverage, reduces ROIC, and limits the company's ability to restore returns without structural cost reductions or durable demand improvement.

Weakened free cash flow conversion

Falling and volatile FCF that runs materially below net income weakens internal funding for CapEx, dividends, and strategic investments. Over several quarters this reduces optionality and raises reliance on balance-sheet reserves, making returns and investment plans more vulnerable to downcycles.

Sawmill losses and high timber costs

An operating loss in Wood Products plus elevated sawlog and pulpwood prices that haven't eased create durable margin pressure. If demand recovery is slow, these structural input-cost and utilization headwinds can prolong losses and hinder group-wide profitability recovery.

Holmen AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Holmen AB (publ) produces and sells paperboards, papers, wood products, and renewable energy in Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and paperboard and paper mills; and manages forests, which cover approximately one million hectares. Its Paperboard segment provides paperboards for consumer packaging to brand owners, converters, and wholesalers. The company's Paper segment offers papers for books, magazines, printed advertising, and packaging to publishers, printing firms, and retailers. Its Wood Products segment provides construction and joinery timber, CLT and glulam products, and wood for pallets and packaging to construction, joinery, and packaging industries, as well as builders' merchants; and operates sawmills. The company's Renewable Energy segment operates 21 hydro power stations; and wind farms with a capacity of approximately 1.2 TWh of electricity. Holmen AB (publ) was founded in 1609 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Holmen AB generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from the sale of paper and paperboard products, which are supplied to various industries, including packaging, publishing, and commercial printing. Additionally, the company earns revenue from its wood products segment, which includes sawn timber, engineered wood, and other wood-based materials sold to construction and furniture manufacturers. Holmen also benefits from its forestry operations, where it manages its own forests and sells timber and other raw materials. Furthermore, the company has invested in renewable energy projects, generating additional revenue through the production and sale of energy. Strategic partnerships with other businesses in the supply chain enhance its market reach and efficiency, contributing significantly to Holmen's overall earnings.

Holmen AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong balance sheet is a major support (very low leverage and large equity buffer), but operating performance has cooled since 2022 and 2025 profitability deteriorated meaningfully (notably gross margin). Free cash flow remains positive but has weakened and become more volatile, with recent FCF running well below net income.

Income Statement

Revenue has been essentially flat to down in recent years (slight declines from 2023–2025 after strong growth in 2021–2022). Profitability also cooled meaningfully from the 2022 peak: operating and net margins stepped down in 2023–2024 and fell further in 2025. The main positive is that the company still delivers solid operating profitability and remains consistently profitable, but the sharp drop in gross margin in 2025 (vs. prior years) is a clear near-term earnings quality red flag and suggests higher cost pressure or pricing/mix headwinds.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservative, with low leverage across the period (debt-to-equity generally ~0.05–0.11). Equity is large and stable relative to assets, providing a strong buffer for a cyclical industry. Returns on equity are moderate (roughly mid-single digits recently, peaking in 2022), which is the key drawback—strong capitalization but not consistently high returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, but volatility is notable. Free cash flow fell sharply in 2024 and declined further in 2025 (down materially year-over-year), reducing financial flexibility. Cash flow conversion vs. earnings is also middling in recent years (free cash flow running well below net income), though 2023–2022 showed stronger conversion and higher free cash flow levels. Overall, the company can generate cash, but recent consistency and conversion weakened.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.06B	22.76B	22.80B	23.95B	19.48B
Gross Profit	366.00M	10.24B	12.12B	13.75B	9.83B
EBITDA	4.76B	5.15B	6.16B	8.85B	5.00B
Net Income	2.88B	2.86B	3.70B	5.87B	3.00B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	80.86B	81.55B	79.72B	81.44B	68.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	390.00M	234.00M	1.20B	1.94B	507.00M
Total Debt	5.74B	3.68B	3.17B	3.15B	4.34B
Total Liabilities	25.46B	24.18B	22.80B	24.49B	21.11B
Stockholders Equity	55.41B	57.37B	56.92B	56.95B	46.99B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.71B	1.20B	4.10B	4.09B	1.52B
Operating Cash Flow	3.85B	3.32B	5.80B	5.48B	3.23B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.12B	-2.07B	-1.65B	-1.35B	-1.31B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.58B	-2.22B	-4.89B	-2.71B	-1.76B

Holmen AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 333.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:HOLM.B, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 333.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 348.28, below the 50-day MA of 347.22, and below the 200-day MA of 366.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.99 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:HOLM.B.

Holmen AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BOL	67 Neutral	kr178.10B	21.59	11.99%	―	8.30%	-8.62%
SSAB.B	65 Neutral	kr73.50B	14.97	7.29%	3.80%	-8.04%	-37.18%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
HOLM.B	61 Neutral	kr53.20B	18.04	―	2.59%	-1.15%	2.30%
SCA.B	59 Neutral	kr78.34B	24.45	3.38%	2.49%	6.10%	-3.62%
BILL	53 Neutral	kr17.93B	25.22	4.43%	3.81%	2.55%	98.53%
STE.R	51 Neutral	kr81.51B	-463.10	―	3.46%	3.43%	78.62%

Holmen AB Corporate Events

Holmen Holds Firm in 2025 as Strong Paperboard Offsets Weak Wood Products

Holmen reported 2025 operating profit of SEK 3,270 million, down from SEK 3,721 million a year earlier, corresponding to an operating margin of 15% versus 16%, as weaker wood products performance and lower electricity prices in northern Sweden weighed on results. Fourth-quarter operating profit was SEK 739 million, roughly flat quarter-on-quarter but hit by a SEK 160 million inventory impairment tied to sawmill-related felling rights, while profit after tax for the year edged up to SEK 2,879 million, or SEK 18.5 per share, reflecting resilience in a weak macro environment. The company’s forest assets were valued at SEK 56.7 billion at year-end, about 2% lower than at the start of the year, and management expects storm damage in heavily affected Swedish regions to be financially manageable within normal operations. Board and Paper delivered strong fourth-quarter earnings of SEK 454 million thanks to healthy deliveries, low energy costs and a focus on fresh-fibre niches that supported a 22% return on capital employed, offsetting subdued demand and high wood costs, while Wood Products suffered a very weak quarter with a loss of SEK 111 million due to elevated log costs and muted construction activity. Holmen continued to optimise its balance sheet with SEK 1,649 million of share buybacks, representing 2.65% of its share capital, and the board has proposed raising the ordinary dividend from SEK 9 to SEK 9.5 per share, signalling confidence in the company’s long-term cash generation despite ongoing global uncertainty and cautious consumer behaviour.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:HOLM.B) stock is a Sell with a SEK306.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holmen AB stock, see the SE:HOLM.B Stock Forecast page.

Holmen Nomination Committee Backs Full Board Re-Election Ahead of 2026 AGM

Holmen’s nomination committee has proposed the re-election of all current Board members – Fredrik Lundberg, Alice Kempe, Louise Lindh, Ulf Lundahl, Fredrik Persson, Henrik Sjölund, Stefan Widing, Henriette Zeuchner and Carina Åkerström – ahead of the 2026 Annual General Meeting, with Fredrik Lundberg nominated to continue as Chairman. The move signals a preference for continuity in the company’s governance as it continues to develop its forest-based, renewable products business, with the full set of AGM proposals to be presented in the forthcoming meeting notice and the 2026 AGM scheduled for 30 March.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:HOLM.B) stock is a Sell with a SEK330.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holmen AB stock, see the SE:HOLM.B Stock Forecast page.

Holmen to Present 2025 Year-End Results in Online Press and Analyst Conference

Holmen AB has announced that it will publish its year-end report for January–December 2025 at lunchtime on Friday, 30 January, followed by an online press and analyst conference at 14:30 CET the same day. President and CEO Henrik Sjölund and CFO Stefan Loréhn will present and comment on the results in English via a webcast on the company’s website, with the option for investors and analysts to participate by telephone, underscoring Holmen’s efforts to maintain transparent communication with the capital markets around its financial performance and strategic development.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:HOLM.B) stock is a Sell with a SEK330.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holmen AB stock, see the SE:HOLM.B Stock Forecast page.

Holmen AB Surpasses Shareholding Threshold with Recent Buyback

Holmen AB has announced the repurchase of 150,000 of its own Class B shares, increasing its total holding to 5.06% of the total shares, surpassing the five percent threshold. This move is part of a broader strategy to buy back up to one million shares, aimed at adjusting the capital structure to enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:HOLM.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK395.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holmen AB stock, see the SE:HOLM.B Stock Forecast page.