Holmen AB (SE:HOLM.B)
:HOLM.B
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Holmen AB
(HOLM.B)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
kr395.00
▲(18.62% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/01/26
The score is supported most by financial resilience (low leverage and strong equity buffer) and a moderately supportive shareholder return profile (dividend increase, mid-level yield). It is held back by weakening profitability and cash-flow conversion in the most recent periods, and a clearly bearish technical setup (below major moving averages with negative MACD), alongside a cautious earnings-call outlook with near-term operational and cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong balance sheet
Holmen's very low leverage and large equity buffer provide durable financial flexibility in the cyclical forest industry. This capital strength supports dividend policy, funds required salvage/CapEx after storms, and lowers refinancing risk, preserving optionality over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Margin deterioration
A meaningful drop in gross margin signals structural cost-pressure or pricing deterioration rather than a one-off. Persistently high wood and energy costs combined with weak volumes can compress operating cash flow and ROIC, limiting reinvestment and dividend sustainability if not reversed.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong balance sheet
Holmen's very low leverage and large equity buffer provide durable financial flexibility in the cyclical forest industry. This capital strength supports dividend policy, funds required salvage/CapEx after storms, and lowers refinancing risk, preserving optionality over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Holmen AB (HOLM.B) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr53.02B
Dividend Yield2.59%
Average Volume (3M)162.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.6
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth-1.15%
EPS Growth2.30%
CountrySE
Employees3,500
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.80
Shares Outstanding117,265,854
10 Day Avg. Volume143,474
30 Day Avg. Volume162,484
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.35
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)2.48
P/FCF Ratio31.97
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
kr341.00Price Target Upside2.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)16.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr21.94B
Holmen AB Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Holmen AB (publ) produces and sells paperboards, papers, wood products, and renewable energy in Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Holmen AB generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from the sale of paper and paperboard products, which are supplied to various industries, including packaging, publishing, and commercial printing. Additio...
Holmen AB Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: the group shows solid financial strength (close to SEK 3.3bn full-year result), healthy ROCE (15%), a strong balance sheet and continued shareholder returns (dividend increase), and Energy delivered an important pickup supported by new wind capacity. However, material near-term headwinds persist: loss-making sawmill operations (Wood Products), a significant Q4 write-down of felling rights (~SEK 160m), elevated wood costs with limited downside so far, weak Board & Paper volumes with reliance on one-off energy and certificate gains (~SEK 250m in Q4), and storm-related timber volumes and costs. Given the balance of notable positives (financial position, ROCE, energy upside) and significant operational challenges and one-off pressures, the overall tone is balanced but cautious.Positive Updates
Full-year profit and ROCE
Delivered close to SEK 3.3 billion for FY2025 and achieved a return on capital employed of 15% for the industry (sawmills + Board & Paper).
Negative Updates
Wood Products division loss
Wood Products (sawmills) reported an operating loss of SEK 111 million in Q4, reflecting weak market demand, lower prices quarter-over-quarter (a couple of percentage points), and sustained high wood costs.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-year profit and ROCE
Delivered close to SEK 3.3 billion for FY2025 and achieved a return on capital employed of 15% for the industry (sawmills + Board & Paper).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call was cautious but specific: Holmen reported FY2025 operating profit "close to SEK 3.3bn" and industry ROCE of 15%, and the Board will propose raising the ordinary dividend from SEK 9.00 to SEK 9.50 (after SEK 13bn returned via dividends/buybacks over the last five years); leverage sits around 1x net debt/EBITDA and a debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 10%. Near-term cash needs include CapEx of a little above SEK 1bn next year (lower than 2025), and a scheduled Iggesund maintenance shut in Q3 with an estimated P&L impact of SEK 150m; no extra share buyback was announced. The January storm affects ~10m m3 nationally and ~300,000 m3 in Holmen’s area (~1/3 of Holmen’s annual harvest), with salvage costs “a bit more than SEK 100/m3” (c. SEK 30–40m impact next year). Forest valuation was SEK 57bn (‑2% YoY) on 1.3m ha (c. 1.0–1.1m ha productive); Q4 Forest EBIT was SEK 403m including a SEK 160m write‑down of felling rights (underlying Q4 up ~SEK 25m vs Q3). Board & Paper benefitted in Q4 by c. SEK 250m from lower-than-normal energy costs and higher green‑certificate/emission income (split roughly evenly), although about 30% of emission allotments will be lost next year (≈SEK 50m p.a.), and Wood Products made an operating loss of SEK 111m in Q4; management flagged energy/commodity and demand uncertainty into 2026 with no firm upside guidance.Holmen AB Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 22.06B | 22.76B | 22.80B | 23.95B | 19.48B |
| Gross Profit | 366.00M | 10.24B | 12.12B | 13.75B | 9.83B |
| EBITDA | 4.76B | 5.15B | 6.16B | 8.85B | 5.00B |
| Net Income | 2.88B | 2.86B | 3.70B | 5.87B | 3.00B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 80.86B | 81.55B | 79.72B | 81.44B | 68.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 390.00M | 234.00M | 1.20B | 1.94B | 507.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.10B | 3.68B | 3.17B | 3.15B | 4.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.46B | 24.18B | 22.80B | 24.49B | 21.11B |
| Stockholders Equity | 55.41B | 57.37B | 56.92B | 56.95B | 46.99B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.71B | 1.20B | 4.10B | 4.09B | 1.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.85B | 3.32B | 5.80B | 5.48B | 3.23B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.12B | -2.07B | -1.65B | -1.35B | -1.31B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.58B | -2.22B | -4.89B | -2.71B | -1.76B |
Holmen AB Technical Analysis
Negative
333.00
Price Trends
338.02
Negative
338.32
Negative
346.41
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.82
Negative
50.19
Neutral
45.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:HOLM.B, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 333 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 329.35, below the 50-day MA of 338.02, and below the 200-day MA of 346.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:HOLM.B.
Holmen AB Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | kr151.32B | 8.41 | 13.04% | ― | 8.30% | -8.62% | |
65 Neutral | kr78.27B | 39.99 | 7.23% | 3.80% | -8.04% | -37.18% | |
61 Neutral | kr53.02B | 23.55 | ― | 2.59% | -1.15% | 2.30% | |
59 Neutral | kr75.85B | 26.87 | 3.09% | 2.49% | 6.10% | -3.62% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
55 Neutral | kr86.62B | 12.15 | ― | 3.46% | 3.43% | 78.62% | |
53 Neutral | kr18.30B | 32.85 | 2.55% | 3.81% | 2.55% | 98.53% |
* General Sector Average
SE:HOLM.B
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Holmen AB Corporate Events
Holmen Holds Firm in 2025 as Strong Paperboard Offsets Weak Wood Products
Jan 30, 2026
Holmen reported 2025 operating profit of SEK 3,270 million, down from SEK 3,721 million a year earlier, corresponding to an operating margin of 15% versus 16%, as weaker wood products performance and lower electricity prices in northern Sweden wei...
Holmen Nomination Committee Backs Full Board Re-Election Ahead of 2026 AGM
Jan 29, 2026
Holmen’s nomination committee has proposed the re-election of all current Board members – Fredrik Lundberg, Alice Kempe, Louise Lindh, Ulf Lundahl, Fredrik Persson, Henrik Sjölund, Stefan Widing, Henriette Zeuchner and Carina ...
Holmen to Present 2025 Year-End Results in Online Press and Analyst Conference
Jan 9, 2026
Holmen AB has announced that it will publish its year-end report for January–December 2025 at lunchtime on Friday, 30 January, followed by an online press and analyst conference at 14:30 CET the same day. President and CEO Henrik Sjölun...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.