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Holmen AB (SE:HOLM.B)
:HOLM.B
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Holmen AB (HOLM.B) AI Stock Analysis

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SE:HOLM.B

Holmen AB

(HOLM.B)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
kr389.00
▲(10.20% Upside)
Holmen AB's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and solid valuation, which are offset by technical indicators suggesting weak momentum and mixed results from the latest earnings call. The company's robust balance sheet and efficient cash flow generation provide a stable foundation, but challenges in revenue growth and market conditions present risks.

Holmen AB (HOLM.B) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

Holmen AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHolmen AB (publ) produces and sells paperboards, papers, wood products, and renewable energy in Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and paperboard and paper mills; and manages forests, which cover approximately one million hectares. Its Paperboard segment provides paperboards for consumer packaging to brand owners, converters, and wholesalers. The company's Paper segment offers papers for books, magazines, printed advertising, and packaging to publishers, printing firms, and retailers. Its Wood Products segment provides construction and joinery timber, CLT and glulam products, and wood for pallets and packaging to construction, joinery, and packaging industries, as well as builders' merchants; and operates sawmills. The company's Renewable Energy segment operates 21 hydro power stations; and wind farms with a capacity of approximately 1.2 TWh of electricity. Holmen AB (publ) was founded in 1609 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
How the Company Makes MoneyHolmen AB generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by selling its forest products including sawn timber and paperboard. The company benefits from its integrated value chain, which allows it to manage its own forests, ensuring a sustainable supply of raw materials. Key revenue streams include sales of wood products to construction and packaging industries, as well as the production of renewable energy from biomass used in its manufacturing processes. Additionally, Holmen has established partnerships with various stakeholders in the forestry and energy sectors, enhancing its market presence and contributing to its earnings through long-term contracts and collaborative projects.

Holmen AB Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 23, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlighted strong financial returns in certain segments, such as wood and paper, and an increase in profits in the Forest division. However, these positive aspects were outweighed by challenges, including weak demand for wood products, loss-making in the renewable energy segment, and significant price pressures in key markets, leading to a predominantly negative sentiment.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance in Wood and Paper
Despite low demand and expensive wood costs, the company achieved a result of over SEK 700 million in the wood and paper segment.
Return on Capital Employed
The company delivered a 15% return on capital employed during the first 9 months of the year.
Increased Profit in Forest Division
The Forest division reported a profit of SEK 538 million in Q3, an increase of SEK 20 million compared to Q2 and SEK 50 million compared to Q1.
Hydropower Station Rebuild
The hydropower station in Junsterforsen is back into production after a successful rebuild.
Negative Updates
Weak Demand for Wood Products
The demand for wood products remains weak, particularly in the U.S. and China, resulting in a SEK -91 million result for Q3.
Low Electricity Prices Impact Renewable Energy Segment
The renewable energy segment is loss-making due to very low electricity prices in the northern part of Sweden and high imbalancing costs.
Price Pressure in Wood Products
Prices for wood products have decreased by 5% to 10% in Q3, leading to a SEK 30 million write-down of finished goods stocks.
Challenging Market for Board and Paper
Demand for board is below pre-pandemic levels, with increased market capacity leading to price pressure and the need for market-related downtime.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, Holmen Group reported a solid performance despite challenging market conditions. The company achieved a result of over SEK 700 million in its wood and paper sectors, contributing to a 15% return on capital employed for the first nine months of the year. Financially, the group distributed SEK 3 billion in dividends and buybacks and maintained a stable debt-to-equity ratio over a five-year period while distributing SEK 13 billion in total. The Forest division saw an improved result of SEK 538 million, an increase from previous quarters, with harvesting levels reaching 660,000 cubic meters. However, the Wood Products segment faced difficulties, reporting a loss of SEK 91 million due to a 5-10% decrease in selling prices and a SEK 30 million stock value adjustment. In renewable energy, low electricity prices in northern Sweden led to curtailments in wind power production, affecting profitability. Meanwhile, the Board and Paper division managed stable prices despite overcapacity challenges, with a notable SEK 150 million impact from maintenance shutdowns. Overall, the company is navigating through a complex market environment by optimizing its forest resources and adjusting to volatile energy markets.

Holmen AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Holmen AB demonstrates strong financial health with solid profitability and a robust balance sheet. The company maintains efficient operations and cash flow generation, with a low debt-to-equity ratio indicating minimal financial risk. However, challenges in revenue growth and modest return on equity suggest areas for improvement.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Holmen AB's income statement shows stable profitability with a gross profit margin of 48.17% and a net profit margin of 12.02% in the TTM period. However, there is a slight decline in revenue growth, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, reflecting efficient cost management.
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
The balance sheet is strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.004 in the TTM period, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The return on equity is modest at 4.82%, suggesting room for improvement in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is robust, highlighting a solid capital structure.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with a 32.62% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.47, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.66 suggests strong cash conversion, although there is potential for further improvement.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue22.69B22.76B22.80B23.95B19.48B16.33B
Gross Profit10.93B10.24B12.12B13.75B9.83B8.04B
EBITDA5.04B5.15B6.16B8.85B5.00B3.67B
Net Income2.73B2.86B3.70B5.87B3.00B1.98B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets82.49B81.55B79.72B81.44B68.10B62.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments324.00M234.00M1.20B1.94B507.00M346.00M
Total Debt234.00M2.73B3.17B3.15B4.34B4.69B
Total Liabilities26.30B24.18B22.80B24.49B21.11B20.03B
Stockholders Equity56.20B57.37B56.92B56.95B46.99B42.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.42B1.20B4.10B4.09B1.52B1.29B
Operating Cash Flow3.65B3.32B5.80B5.48B3.23B2.46B
Investing Cash Flow-2.24B-2.07B-1.65B-1.35B-1.31B-1.78B
Financing Cash Flow-1.46B-2.22B-4.89B-2.71B-1.76B-808.00M

Holmen AB Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price353.00
Price Trends
50DMA
359.30
Negative
100DMA
367.69
Negative
200DMA
383.31
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.92
Negative
RSI
48.48
Neutral
STOCH
75.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:HOLM.B, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 353 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 352.03, below the 50-day MA of 359.30, and below the 200-day MA of 383.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:HOLM.B.

Holmen AB Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
kr90.96B25.693.38%2.39%6.10%-3.62%
kr119.37B14.4711.99%8.30%-8.62%
kr59.55B11.957.29%4.36%-8.04%-37.18%
kr56.34B19.422.53%-1.15%2.30%
kr22.44B18.534.43%3.90%2.55%98.53%
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
kr85.24B3.65%3.43%78.62%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SE:HOLM.B
Holmen AB
353.00
-62.07
-14.95%
SE:BILL
BillerudKorsnas AB
89.85
-2.26
-2.45%
SE:BOL
Boliden AB
425.70
86.20
25.39%
SE:SSAB.B
SSAB Corporation
59.70
10.52
21.39%
SE:STE.R
Stora Enso Oyj
106.10
-10.88
-9.30%
SE:SCA.B
Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB
125.70
-15.50
-10.98%

Holmen AB Corporate Events

Holmen AB Earnings Call: Mixed Sentiments Amid Market Challenges
Oct 24, 2025

The recent earnings call for Holmen AB presented a mixed sentiment, with notable strengths in certain segments overshadowed by significant challenges. While the company reported strong financial returns in the wood and paper sectors and increased profits in the Forest division, these positives were tempered by weak demand, loss-making in the renewable energy segment, and considerable price pressures in key markets.

Holmen AB Reports Decrease in Operating Profit Amid Industry Challenges
Oct 23, 2025

Holmen AB reported a decrease in operating profit for January-September 2025, primarily due to maintenance shutdowns and lower electricity prices in northern Sweden. Despite challenges in the forest industry, including weak demand for construction products and high wood costs, Holmen’s integrated business model allowed it to maintain a solid operating profit. The company is adapting to market conditions by optimizing its forest management and launching new products, such as a packaging product from Braviken Paper Mill, to enhance its competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:HOLM.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK379.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holmen AB stock, see the SE:HOLM.B Stock Forecast page.

Holmen AB to Release Interim Report and Host Conference
Oct 2, 2025

Holmen AB has announced that it will release its interim report for January–September 2025 on October 23. The company will host an online press and analyst conference on the same day, where the President and CEO, Henrik Sjölund, and CFO, Stefan Loréhn, will present and discuss the report. This event is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:HOLM.B) stock is a Sell with a SEK340.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holmen AB stock, see the SE:HOLM.B Stock Forecast page.

Holmen AB Announces 2026 Nomination Committee Members
Sep 18, 2025

Holmen AB has announced the composition of its Nomination Committee for the period leading up to the 2026 Annual General Meeting. The committee will include the Chairman of the Board and representatives from the company’s three largest shareholders, with Bo Selling serving as the chairman. This move is expected to ensure strategic alignment and shareholder representation in the company’s governance.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:HOLM.B) stock is a Sell with a SEK340.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holmen AB stock, see the SE:HOLM.B Stock Forecast page.

Holmen AB Reports Stable Profit Amid Market Challenges in H1 2025
Aug 14, 2025

Holmen AB reported an operating profit of SEK 1,794 million for the first half of 2025, down from SEK 1,927 million in the same period last year, with an operating margin of 16%. The company faced challenges such as low electricity prices in northern Sweden, impacting its Renewable Energy segment, and high competition for wood raw materials. Despite these challenges, Holmen maintained profitability through its integrated business model and strategic focus on niche markets. The company is adjusting production in response to market conditions and plans to launch a new packaging product in the autumn.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:HOLM.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK450.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Holmen AB stock, see the SE:HOLM.B Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 28, 2025