Holmen AB (SE:HOLM.B)
:HOLM.B
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Holmen AB
(HOLM.B)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
kr335.00
▲(0.18% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is supported primarily by strong financial resilience (low leverage, positive cash generation) and a cautious-but-stable earnings outlook with continued shareholder returns. It is held back by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages, negative MACD) and operational/margin risks highlighted on the call, alongside a valuation that is only modestly supported by the dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
Holmen’s very low leverage and large equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk, supports steady dividends and selective capex, and gives management room to absorb cyclical downturns without forcing asset sales or emergency financing.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue and gross-profit deterioration
A drifting top line paired with a TTM gross-profit decline signals structural margin pressure from pricing, mix or rising input costs. If persistent, this undermines operating leverage, reduces ROCE and limits the company’s ability to sustain payouts and reinvestment without structural cost or pricing improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
Holmen’s very low leverage and large equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and interest-rate risk, supports steady dividends and selective capex, and gives management room to absorb cyclical downturns without forcing asset sales or emergency financing.
Read all positive factors
Holmen AB (HOLM.B) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr50.45B
Dividend Yield2.59%
Average Volume (3M)162.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.9
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth-6.33%
EPS Growth-1.97%
CountrySE
Employees3,500
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.00
Shares Outstanding117,265,854
10 Day Avg. Volume143,474
30 Day Avg. Volume162,484
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio5.35
Price to Book (P/B)0.99
Price to Sales (P/S)2.48
P/FCF Ratio31.97
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
kr373.00Price Target Upside11.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)16.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr21.86B
Holmen AB Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Holmen AB (publ) produces and sells paperboards, papers, wood products, and renewable energy in Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Holmen makes money through multiple business areas tied to its forest assets and industrial production. (1) Paperboard: The company manufactures paperboard and sells it to customers (typically converters and brand owners/packaging supply chains), ...
Holmen AB Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed picture: the group shows solid financial strength (close to SEK 3.3bn full-year result), healthy ROCE (15%), a strong balance sheet and continued shareholder returns (dividend increase), and Energy delivered an important pickup supported by new wind capacity. However, material near-term headwinds persist: loss-making sawmill operations (Wood Products), a significant Q4 write-down of felling rights (~SEK 160m), elevated wood costs with limited downside so far, weak Board & Paper volumes with reliance on one-off energy and certificate gains (~SEK 250m in Q4), and storm-related timber volumes and costs. Given the balance of notable positives (financial position, ROCE, energy upside) and significant operational challenges and one-off pressures, the overall tone is balanced but cautious.Positive Updates
Full-year profit and ROCE
Delivered close to SEK 3.3 billion for FY2025 and achieved a return on capital employed of 15% for the industry (sawmills + Board & Paper).
Negative Updates
Wood Products division loss
Wood Products (sawmills) reported an operating loss of SEK 111 million in Q4, reflecting weak market demand, lower prices quarter-over-quarter (a couple of percentage points), and sustained high wood costs.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-year profit and ROCE
Delivered close to SEK 3.3 billion for FY2025 and achieved a return on capital employed of 15% for the industry (sawmills + Board & Paper).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call was cautious but specific: Holmen reported FY2025 operating profit "close to SEK 3.3bn" and industry ROCE of 15%, and the Board will propose raising the ordinary dividend from SEK 9.00 to SEK 9.50 (after SEK 13bn returned via dividends/buybacks over the last five years); leverage sits around 1x net debt/EBITDA and a debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 10%. Near-term cash needs include CapEx of a little above SEK 1bn next year (lower than 2025), and a scheduled Iggesund maintenance shut in Q3 with an estimated P&L impact of SEK 150m; no extra share buyback was announced. The January storm affects ~10m m3 nationally and ~300,000 m3 in Holmen’s area (~1/3 of Holmen’s annual harvest), with salvage costs “a bit more than SEK 100/m3” (c. SEK 30–40m impact next year). Forest valuation was SEK 57bn (‑2% YoY) on 1.3m ha (c. 1.0–1.1m ha productive); Q4 Forest EBIT was SEK 403m including a SEK 160m write‑down of felling rights (underlying Q4 up ~SEK 25m vs Q3). Board & Paper benefitted in Q4 by c. SEK 250m from lower-than-normal energy costs and higher green‑certificate/emission income (split roughly evenly), although about 30% of emission allotments will be lost next year (≈SEK 50m p.a.), and Wood Products made an operating loss of SEK 111m in Q4; management flagged energy/commodity and demand uncertainty into 2026 with no firm upside guidance.Holmen AB Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 21.56B | 22.06B | 22.76B | 22.80B | 23.95B | 19.48B |
| Gross Profit | -2.29B | 366.00M | 10.24B | 12.12B | 13.75B | 9.83B |
| EBITDA | 4.39B | 4.76B | 5.15B | 6.16B | 8.85B | 5.00B |
| Net Income | 2.75B | 2.88B | 2.86B | 3.70B | 5.87B | 3.00B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 82.30B | 80.86B | 81.55B | 79.72B | 81.44B | 68.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.60B | 390.00M | 234.00M | 1.20B | 1.94B | 507.00M |
| Total Debt | 6.07B | 5.10B | 3.68B | 3.17B | 3.15B | 4.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.65B | 25.46B | 24.18B | 22.80B | 24.49B | 21.11B |
| Stockholders Equity | 54.65B | 55.41B | 57.37B | 56.92B | 56.95B | 46.99B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.63B | 1.71B | 1.20B | 4.10B | 4.09B | 1.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.31B | 3.85B | 3.32B | 5.80B | 5.48B | 3.23B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.66B | -2.12B | -2.07B | -1.65B | -1.35B | -1.31B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.61B | -1.58B | -2.22B | -4.89B | -2.71B | -1.76B |
Holmen AB Technical Analysis
Neutral
334.40
Price Trends
338.18
Negative
337.71
Negative
345.52
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
51.19
Neutral
23.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:HOLM.B, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 334.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 329.85, below the 50-day MA of 338.18, and below the 200-day MA of 345.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SE:HOLM.B.
Holmen AB Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | kr136.46B | 9.03 | 13.04% | ― | 9.10% | -4.02% | |
63 Neutral | kr50.45B | 20.92 | ― | 2.59% | -6.33% | -1.97% | |
59 Neutral | kr73.72B | 50.25 | 3.09% | 2.49% | -3.98% | -23.70% | |
58 Neutral | kr82.72B | 11.43 | 7.23% | 3.80% | -5.66% | 5.97% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
55 Neutral | kr81.05B | 12.15 | ― | 3.46% | -0.29% | ― | |
52 Neutral | kr15.67B | -20.67 | 2.55% | 3.81% | -12.11% | -95.84% |
* General Sector Average
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Holmen AB Corporate Events
Holmen Holds Firm in Tough Markets as Renewable Energy Offsets Weaker Forest Industry Profits
Apr 28, 2026
Holmen reported first-quarter 2026 operating profit of SEK 827 million, down from SEK 988 million a year earlier, as weaker results from its industrial units were partly offset by significantly stronger earnings from hydro and wind power. Profit a...
Holmen to Present Q1 2026 Results in Online Analyst Conference
Apr 7, 2026
Holmen AB has announced that it will publish its interim report for the January–March 2026 period on Tuesday, 28 April, at 07:30 CEST, underscoring the company’s regular financial reporting cadence to the market. Later that morning, at...
Holmen AGM Backs SEK 9.50 Dividend, Extends Share Buyback and Incentive Mandates
Mar 30, 2026
Holmen’s 2026 Annual General Meeting approved a dividend of SEK 9.50 per share, with a record date of 1 April 2026 and expected payment on 8 April, while also adopting the parent company and Group financial statements and discharging the Boa...
Holmen Names New Head of Wood Products as Johan Padel Steps Down
Mar 13, 2026
Holmen has announced a leadership change in its Wood Products business area, with long-serving head Johan Padel set to leave his role during the year and be succeeded by current Head of Business Development, Karolina Svensson, on 1 June. The trans...
Holmen AB Publishes 2025 Annual Report on Integrated Renewable Operations
Mar 9, 2026
Holmen AB has released its Annual Report for the 2025 financial year, covering its operations from forest management through wood products, board and paper, and renewable energy. The report emphasises Holmen’s integrated value chain, from se...
Holmen calls 2026 AGM with capital measures and incentive plan on agenda
Feb 24, 2026
Holmen AB has called shareholders to its Annual General Meeting on 30 March 2026 at the Grand Hôtel in Stockholm, setting out formal requirements for registration, voting rights, and proxy representation. The meeting will handle statutory ite...
Holmen Holds Firm in 2025 as Strong Paperboard Offsets Weak Wood Products
Jan 30, 2026
Holmen reported 2025 operating profit of SEK 3,270 million, down from SEK 3,721 million a year earlier, corresponding to an operating margin of 15% versus 16%, as weaker wood products performance and lower electricity prices in northern Sweden wei...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.