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Boliden AB (SE:BOL)
:BOL

Boliden AB (BOL) AI Stock Analysis

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SE:BOL

Boliden AB

(BOL)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
kr763.00
▲(10.48% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/05/26
The score is driven primarily by strong technical momentum and a clear uptrend. Financial performance is solid but held back by cyclical margin pressure and inconsistent cash conversion/free-cash-flow strength. Valuation (P/E ~19) is moderate and does not materially boost the score.
Positive Factors
Integrated mining & smelting model
Vertical integration across mining and smelting secures more of the metals value chain, lowering reliance on third-party refiners and capturing processing margins. Diversified metal output (copper, zinc, lead, gold) and long-term supply links support stable volumes and resilience to single-commodity shocks.
Healthy profitability margins
Sustained mid‑20s EBITDA margins indicate meaningful operating scale and value accretion from smelting operations. Solid net margins give the firm an earnings buffer through cycles, enabling reinvestment in mines and smelters and offering a structural ability to generate shareholder returns when cash conversion improves.
Reasonable leverage and returns
Moderate leverage provides financial flexibility for capex and strategic projects while keeping interest burden manageable. A mid‑teens ROE footprint demonstrates efficient capital use for a cyclical materials business, supporting investment capacity and credibility with counterparties over multiple cycles.
Negative Factors
Weak cash conversion
Persistent shortfall of operating cash vs. accounting earnings and thin FCF (about 25% of net income in 2025) constrain the company's ability to deleverage, pay sustained dividends, or self‑fund large project capex. This structural cash conversion weakness raises vulnerability in weaker commodity cycles.
Cyclical margin volatility
Boliden's earnings and margins move with commodity price swings; recent compression versus the 2022 peak shows earnings volatility persists. This cyclical profile complicates multi-year planning, raises forecasting risk for capital allocation, and increases the chance of earnings reversals during demand slowdowns.
Rising debt since 2023
An uptick in indebtedness has trimmed the company's financial cushion versus earlier years. Higher absolute debt raises interest and refinancing risk, limiting financial flexibility to pursue opportunistic investments or absorb weaker commodity cycles without pressuring liquidity or capital return policies.

Boliden AB (BOL) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

Boliden AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBoliden AB (publ) engages in the exploring, extracting, and processing of base metals and precious metals in Sweden, other Nordic region, Germany, the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe, North America, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Business Area Mines and Business Area Smelters. It explores for copper, zinc, nickel, lead, gold, silver, cobalt, tellurium, platinum, and palladium deposits. The company operates the Aitik, the Boliden Area, and Garpenberg mines in Sweden; the Tara mine in Ireland; and the Kevitsa mines in Finland. Its products include zinc and lead ingot, copper cathode, gold bar, and silver granule, and other products, such as sulphuric acid; copper, lead, nickel, and zinc concentrates; and by-products, including copper sulphate, zinc clinker, iron sand, copper telluride, selenium, nickel matte, and crude nickel sulphate, as well as palladium, platinum, rhodium, iridium, ruthenium, and osmium concentrates. The company sells its metals primarily to industrial customers, as well as construction, electronics, and automotive industries; and paper manufacturers. Boliden AB (publ) was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
How the Company Makes MoneyBoliden generates revenue primarily through the sale of metals produced from its mining operations and smelting processes. The company sells a variety of metal products, including copper, zinc, and gold, to various industries such as construction, automotive, and electronics. Key revenue streams include the sale of refined metals, as well as by-products such as silver and lead. Boliden also benefits from long-term supply contracts and strategic partnerships with other mining companies and industries, which provide a stable source of income. Additionally, fluctuations in global metal prices, driven by demand and supply dynamics, significantly impact its earnings, making market conditions a critical factor in its revenue generation.

Boliden AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability is solid (2025 net margin ~10% and mid‑20s EBITDA margin) and leverage is reasonable (debt-to-equity ~0.31), but results are clearly cyclical with margin compression versus the 2022 peak. Cash flow quality is the main weakness: cash conversion has been below 1.0 in 2023–2025 and free cash flow has been thin/volatile (negative in 2023; relatively low vs net income in 2024–2025).
Income Statement
74
Positive
Boliden shows solid profitability for an Industrial Materials business, with 2025 net margin around 10% and EBITDA margin in the mid‑20s. Revenue rebounded strongly in 2025 after a down 2023, but growth has been uneven and margins have compressed versus the 2022 peak (notably lower gross and net margins in 2024–2025). Overall: good earnings power, but a clearly cyclical trajectory with some recent margin pressure.
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Leverage remains reasonable with debt-to-equity around 0.31 in 2025, supporting financial flexibility. Equity and total assets have grown over time, but debt has also increased meaningfully since 2023, reducing balance-sheet cushion versus earlier years. Returns on equity are healthy (~12% in 2025), though below the stronger 2021–2022 levels.
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
Cash generation is mixed. Operating cash flow is strong in absolute terms in 2024–2025, but it has not fully covered accounting earnings in recent years (operating cash flow to net income below 1.0 in 2023–2025). Free cash flow is positive in 2024–2025 but relatively thin versus net income (about 25% in 2025) and was negative in 2023, with a sharp decline in 2025 free cash flow growth. This points to higher reinvestment needs and more volatility in cash conversion.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue93.51B89.21B78.55B86.44B68.64B
Gross Profit15.79B12.90B10.74B18.15B12.93B
EBITDA22.15B20.58B14.99B22.07B16.70B
Net Income9.40B10.02B6.07B12.41B8.70B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets143.40B116.19B101.96B96.38B80.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments9.24B7.05B4.98B12.16B8.25B
Total Debt23.80B16.51B14.58B11.19B6.16B
Total Liabilities66.86B51.18B45.54B38.05B29.67B
Stockholders Equity76.51B64.99B56.40B58.31B50.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow5.24B2.67B-3.35B6.37B7.16B
Operating Cash Flow20.69B17.66B12.18B16.40B13.14B
Investing Cash Flow-29.94B-15.00B-15.54B-10.07B-6.00B
Financing Cash Flow11.44B-590.00M-3.83B-2.42B-3.96B

Boliden AB Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price690.60
Price Trends
50DMA
602.54
Positive
100DMA
516.45
Positive
200DMA
417.38
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
28.59
Negative
RSI
59.45
Neutral
STOCH
75.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:BOL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 690.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 661.69, above the 50-day MA of 602.54, and above the 200-day MA of 417.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 28.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:BOL.

Boliden AB Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
kr575.35M11.75
71
Outperform
kr196.29B20.6911.99%8.30%-8.62%
56
Neutral
kr373.87M-17.60-15.76%
55
Neutral
$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
50
Neutral
kr4.45B-23.52-5.53%-91.81%
43
Neutral
kr277.77M-14.26-8.06%-9.05%
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SE:BOL
Boliden AB
690.60
324.20
88.48%
SE:NIO
Nordic Iron Ore AB
4.09
-1.61
-28.25%
SE:VISC
Copperstone Resources AB Class B
18.50
2.60
16.37%
SE:ARCT
Arctic Minerals AB
7.95
4.45
127.14%
SE:BOTX
Botnia Exploration Holding AB
14.10
1.70
13.71%
SE:GRANGX
Grangex AB
67.40
57.42
575.35%

Boliden AB Corporate Events

Boliden to Host Virtual Capital Markets Update for Investors in March
Feb 23, 2026

Boliden AB has invited investors, analysts and financial media to a virtual Capital Markets Update to be held on March 18, 2026, from 09:30 to 11:30 CET. The event, led by President and CEO Mikael Staffas and members of Group Management, will be webcast live on the company’s website, followed by a Q&A session and an on‑demand recording, offering stakeholders broader access to the company’s strategic and financial communication.

By opting for a virtual format with open access and no pre‑registration, Boliden is signaling an effort to enhance transparency and engagement with the capital market. The session is likely to provide investors and analysts with deeper insight into Boliden’s operational performance and strategic direction in the metals sector, which could inform market expectations and support the company’s positioning as a leading sustainable metals producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BOL) stock is a Hold with a SEK595.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boliden AB stock, see the SE:BOL Stock Forecast page.

Boliden Boosts Liquidity With New EUR 1 Billion Revolving Credit Facilities
Feb 13, 2026

Boliden has secured a new syndicated revolving credit facilities agreement totalling EUR 1 billion with a group of 12 banks, split into a five-year EUR 500 million tranche and a three-year EUR 500 million tranche, each with two one-year extension options. The package replaces existing EUR 850 million facilities and is designed to provide stronger liquidity, better terms and greater financial flexibility, particularly in light of the company’s expanded scale following its 2025 acquisitions of Somincor and Zinkgruvan.

Management describes the agreement as a key element of Boliden’s robust financing structure tailored to the cyclical metals and mining sector, signalling reinforced balance-sheet support for ongoing operations and future investments. The participation of major Nordic and international banks as coordinating bookrunners and mandated lead arrangers underlines continued lender confidence in Boliden’s credit profile and its strategic trajectory as a leading European metals producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BOL) stock is a Hold with a SEK595.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boliden AB stock, see the SE:BOL Stock Forecast page.

Boliden Updates and Expands Mineral Resource Base Following 2025 Acquisitions
Feb 3, 2026

Boliden has reported updated mineral resources as of 31 December 2025 across its main mining areas, including Aitik, the Boliden area, Garpenberg, Kevitsa, Tara, Somincor, Zinkgruvan, Laver and Rockliden. The disclosure shows substantial copper, zinc, gold and polymetallic resources in both measured/indicated and inferred categories, and incorporates newly acquired operations Somincor and Zinkgruvan, whose figures for 2024 were previously reported by Lundin Mining. The company clarifies that it reports mineral reserves exclusive of mineral resources to avoid double counting, and notes specific commercial and technical conditions such as the silver streaming agreement at Somincor and the current non-payability of molybdenum at Aitik, underscoring how the enlarged resource base and reporting practices frame Boliden’s long‑term production potential and future project planning.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BOL) stock is a Hold with a SEK640.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boliden AB stock, see the SE:BOL Stock Forecast page.

Boliden Sets Record Mine Profit on Strong Metal Prices and Stable Output
Feb 3, 2026

Boliden reported a strong fourth quarter of 2025, driven by higher metal prices—particularly for precious metals—and stable production across its mining and smelting operations. Operating profit excluding inventory revaluation rose to SEK 4,061 million from SEK 3,814 million, revenues increased to SEK 28,131 million, and mines delivered a record quarterly operating profit of SEK 3,174 million despite generally lower grades, supported by strong output at the Aitik mine and record copper cathode production at the Harjavalta smelter. For the full year, earnings per share declined to SEK 33.39 from SEK 36.65 and free cash flow turned negative due to high investment levels, while net debt increased and returns on capital and equity moderated; nevertheless, management highlighted improved operational stability, successful near-mine exploration at Garpenberg under a newly revised environmental permit, and the growing importance of precious metals, which account for about a third of group gross profit. Reflecting confidence in its financial position and long-term outlook, the board proposed an ordinary dividend of SEK 11.00 per share, underscoring Boliden’s message that the company enters 2026 in its strongest shape to date, with tailwinds from both market conditions and years of internal efficiency and productivity efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BOL) stock is a Hold with a SEK640.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boliden AB stock, see the SE:BOL Stock Forecast page.

Boliden Seeks EU Strategic Status for Nautanen Copper Project to Bolster Green Transition
Jan 16, 2026

Boliden has applied to the European Commission to have its Nautanen copper deposit in central Norrbotten designated as a strategic project under the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act, aiming to strengthen the bloc’s secure supply of copper. The company envisions Nautanen as an underground satellite mine to its existing Aitik copper mine, leveraging existing milling and tailings infrastructure to limit environmental impact and targeting annual extraction of 2–3 million tonnes over an estimated 20‑year mine life, with production potentially starting in the early 2030s pending feasibility results and permitting, underscoring copper’s strategic importance for Europe’s green transition and Boliden’s positioning in sustainable metals supply.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BOL) stock is a Buy with a SEK661.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boliden AB stock, see the SE:BOL Stock Forecast page.

Boliden Sets Date for Q4 2025 Interim Report and Investor Presentation
Jan 13, 2026

Boliden AB has scheduled the release of its interim report for the fourth quarter of 2025 for 3 February at 07:45 CET, followed by a press and analyst conference at 09:30 CET in Stockholm, which will also be accessible via webcast and telephone. The report will be presented by President and CEO Mikael Staffas together with CFO Håkan Gabrielsson, and the associated presentation materials and a recorded webcast will be made available on the company’s website, underscoring Boliden’s efforts to maintain transparent communication with investors and analysts around its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BOL) stock is a Sell with a SEK348.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boliden AB stock, see the SE:BOL Stock Forecast page.

Boliden AB Announces 2026 Production Guidance with Optimistic Outlook
Dec 5, 2025

Boliden AB has announced its 2026 production guidance, highlighting increased confidence due to higher grades in open pit mines and the commissioning of key projects. The company plans to reduce capital expenditure to SEK 15 billion, with significant investments in waste rock mining and processing. Despite some cost increases and project delays, Boliden anticipates improved throughput and grades in several mining areas, which could positively impact long-term value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:BOL) stock is a Sell with a SEK480.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boliden AB stock, see the SE:BOL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 05, 2026