Orexo AB (SE:ORX)
:ORX
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Orexo AB
(ORX)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
kr19.00
▼(-45.01% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/01/26
The score is held back mainly by weak financial performance (sharp revenue decline and ongoing losses) and bearish technical trends (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting this, cash flow and balance-sheet resilience have improved, and the latest earnings call highlighted a strengthened cash position and clearer pipeline timeline, though legal and covenant-related uncertainties remain.
Positive Factors
Sustained positive cash generation
A multi-year shift to positive TTM operating and free cash flow (~117M) materially reduces near-term financing pressure, supports ongoing R&D and operating needs, and provides durable runway to execute clinical milestones without immediate reliance on dilutive capital.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue decline
A greater than 50% TTM revenue contraction signals structural weakness in commercial revenue generation; persistent negative margins suggest the core business no longer covers fixed costs, increasing reliance on one‑time transaction proceeds and external funding to sustain operations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained positive cash generation
A multi-year shift to positive TTM operating and free cash flow (~117M) materially reduces near-term financing pressure, supports ongoing R&D and operating needs, and provides durable runway to execute clinical milestones without immediate reliance on dilutive capital.
Read all positive factors
Orexo AB (ORX) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr695.64M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)101.19K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth-58.93%
EPS Growth-16.61%
CountrySE
Employees110
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-6.24
Shares Outstanding35,127,056
10 Day Avg. Volume22,969
30 Day Avg. Volume101,192
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.22
Price to Book (P/B)2.12
Price to Sales (P/S)40.09
P/FCF Ratio6.02
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-7.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr25.60M
Orexo AB Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Orexo AB (publ), a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes pharmaceuticals and digital therapies in the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom. Its products include Zubsolv tablets for the treatment of opioid dependenc...
How the Company Makes Money
Orexo makes money primarily by commercializing prescription pharmaceuticals. Its core revenue stream is product sales from medicines it markets (historically including an opioid use disorder treatment in the U.S.), which generate revenue when pres...
Orexo AB Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicates a materially improved financial position driven by the successful sale of ZUBSOLV U.S., resulting in strong cash proceeds (SEK 814 million net) and a net cash position (SEK 429.2 million), while allowing a strategic refocus on the AmorphOX platform and prioritized R&D milestones (OX640 pivotal trial planned Q4, OX390 in‑vivo starting Q1, IZIPRY filing target Q3/2026). However, near-term challenges remain including weak continued-operations revenue (SEK 3.3 million), negative continued-ops EBITDA (SEK -70 million for Q4), impairments (MODIA SEK 22 million), outstanding DOJ investigation risk, bond covenant remediation/possible redemption, restructuring costs in 2026, and reliance on partnerships and BARDA funding to sustain and accelerate development. Overall, the positives from the transaction, cash position, meeting 2025 metrics, and clear strategic direction outweigh the operational and legal headwinds, positioning Orexo to focus on technology-driven R&D growth but with execution and financing risks to monitor.Positive Updates
Successful Sale of ZUBSOLV U.S.
Closed sale of ZUBSOLV U.S. to Dexcel for USD 91 million (approx. SEK 847–855 million). Net proceeds at closing after transaction costs amounted to SEK 814 million. Transaction also includes USD 3.8 million for inventory, a USD 3 million escrow, and an earn-out of up to USD 16.8 million (risk-adjusted estimate booked at USD 8.2 million).
Negative Updates
Weak Continued Operations Revenue
Continued operations (post-divestment R&D and residual revenues) reported net revenues of only SEK 3.3 million in the quarter, reflecting declines in Abstral royalties, lower Edluar royalties (notably Canada), and reduced ZUBSOLV ex‑U.S. sales ahead of Accord manufacturing.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Sale of ZUBSOLV U.S.
Closed sale of ZUBSOLV U.S. to Dexcel for USD 91 million (approx. SEK 847–855 million). Net proceeds at closing after transaction costs amounted to SEK 814 million. Transaction also includes USD 3.8 million for inventory, a USD 3 million escrow, and an earn-out of up to USD 16.8 million (risk-adjusted estimate booked at USD 8.2 million).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call emphasized a clear near‑term development timetable and strengthened financial position: OX390 in‑vivo proof‑of‑concept is starting Q1 2026, OX640 pivotal nasal allergy challenge planned for Q4 2026, IZIPRY filing targeted Q3 2026 with approval expected early 2027, and an R&D Day set for March 24; operationally Orexo expects a stepped‑down U.S. presence (~5 people) and ~55 staff in Sweden as it reshapes post‑transaction. Key metrics disclosed include a ZUBSOLV U.S. sale price of USD 91m (≈SEK 847m) plus USD 3.8m inventory, USD 3m escrow, an earn‑out up to USD 16.8m (risk‑adjusted receivable USD 8.2m), year‑end cash SEK 912m (net cash SEK 429.2m), net proceeds at closing SEK 814m, profit on sale SEK 769m, provisions for returns/rebates USD 7.9m, Q4 ZUBSOLV sales USD 14.6m (vs USD 14.1m LY), 2025 buprenorphine‑naloxone market +3%, 2025 OpEx excl. depreciation SEK 468m (Q4 continued OpEx SEK 104m), Q4 continued EBITDA -SEK 70m and full‑year 2025 EBITDA +SEK 3.2m; management believes the cash runway is at least two years barring new investments.Orexo AB Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 126.50M | 26.00M | 590.00M | 638.80M | 624.30M | 565.00M |
| Gross Profit | -285.60M | -55.50M | 517.90M | 549.90M | 521.70M | 486.10M |
| EBITDA | -348.10M | -285.90M | 58.60M | -22.10M | -73.90M | -141.30M |
| Net Income | -218.00M | -129.80M | -203.00M | -128.30M | -177.60M | -223.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 610.40M | 1.30B | 594.80M | 786.60M | 1.11B | 1.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 386.20M | 912.40M | 123.30M | 171.00M | 351.80M | 504.10M |
| Total Debt | 7.00M | 492.20M | 476.00M | 473.80M | 539.60M | 550.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 245.70M | 812.20M | 721.10M | 727.70M | 915.10M | 924.10M |
| Stockholders Equity | 364.70M | 490.60M | -126.30M | 58.90M | 193.90M | 349.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 117.00M | 173.00M | -37.20M | -113.90M | -180.50M | -281.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 117.10M | 173.00M | -32.60M | -95.00M | -156.60M | -229.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 654.90M | 635.90M | -5.30M | 200.80M | -234.70M | -52.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -485.00M | -2.30M | -15.50M | -70.10M | -21.40M | 250.60M |
Orexo AB Technical Analysis
Neutral
34.55
Price Trends
20.76
Negative
25.01
Negative
26.08
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.46
Negative
52.79
Neutral
80.09
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:ORX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 34.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.01, above the 50-day MA of 20.76, and above the 200-day MA of 26.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.09 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SE:ORX.
Orexo AB Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
53 Neutral | kr695.64M | -1.43 | ― | ― | -58.93% | -16.61% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | kr589.85M | -14.34 | ― | ― | 9.56% | 19.12% | |
48 Neutral | kr689.64M | -11.63 | -48.65% | ― | 79.13% | 55.77% | |
43 Neutral | kr193.09M | -3.17 | -530.21% | ― | 742.87% | 40.47% | |
43 Neutral | kr33.34M | -0.51 | ― | ― | -86.56% | 8.75% | |
42 Neutral | kr160.31M | -2.22 | -90.66% | ― | ― | -32.29% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
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Orexo AB Corporate Events
Orexo Deepens R&D Push as Losses Widen and Bond Redeemed Early
Apr 28, 2026
Orexo reported weak first-quarter 2026 financials from its continued operations, with net revenues falling to SEK 5 million and posting a wider net loss, while operating expenses remained heavily weighted toward research and development. The compa...
Orexo updates share and voting structure after class C conversion
Mar 31, 2026
Orexo AB has reported its updated share and vote structure as of the last trading day of March, confirming a total of 37,156,639 shares outstanding. Of these, 35,127,056 are ordinary shares carrying one vote each, while 2,029,583 are class C share...
Orexo Calls 2026 AGM to Decide on Governance, Capital Measures and Incentive Plan
Mar 30, 2026
Orexo AB has called its shareholders to an annual general meeting in Uppsala on 7 May 2026, outlining procedures for in-person attendance, proxy representation and postal voting, including key registration and notification deadlines. The notice al...
Orexo Publishes 2025 Annual and Sustainability Reports Detailing Strategy and Market Position
Mar 27, 2026
Orexo AB has published its Annual Report 2025, outlining its strategic objectives, core capabilities, technology platforms, product pipeline, manufacturing strengths, and its position as a partner of choice in the pharmaceutical sector. The report...
Orexo Restructures Leadership to Drive Pipeline and AmorphOX-Focused Growth
Mar 6, 2026
Orexo AB is reshaping its organization and management team following the divestment of Zubsolv in the U.S. market, sharpening its focus on advancing new development programs and its AmorphOX technology platform. The company aims to retain strong U...
Orexo to Redeem SEK 500m Social Bonds After Zubsolv Rights Sale
Mar 4, 2026
Orexo AB will use proceeds from the completed divestment of U.S. rights to its opioid use disorder therapy Zubsolv to redeem in full its outstanding SEK 500 million senior secured social bonds maturing 2024/2028. The company has exercised its righ...
Orexo Adjusts Share Structure After U.S. Zubsolv Divestment
Feb 19, 2026
Orexo AB’s board has approved the conversion of 416,417 Class C shares into ordinary shares and their transfer, free of charge, to former employees participating in the company’s long‑term incentive programs from 2023, 2024, and ...
Orexo Boosts Cash and Earnings After USD 91 Million Zubsolv US Sale
Feb 5, 2026
Orexo has completed the sale of all US rights to its opioid dependence treatment Zubsolv to Dexcel Pharma USA for USD 91 million plus USD 3.8 million in inventory value, along with potential contingent payments of up to USD 16.8 million tied to fu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.