Orexo AB (ORX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr777.01M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 101.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.35
• Revenue Growth: -8.79%
• EPS Growth: -91.09%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 110
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): -1.28
• Shares Outstanding: 35,127,056
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 22,969
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 101,192
• PEG Ratio: 0.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 40.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -6.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr21.60M

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: kr22.00 ▼(-36.32% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/07/26

The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (sharp 2025 revenue and margin breakdown and a history of balance sheet volatility), partially offset by a one-year turnaround to positive operating and free cash flow. Technical indicators also lean bearish with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative MACD. Valuation is difficult to support given the negative P/E and lack of a dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Positive cash flow turnaround

A full-year shift to positive operating and free cash flow in 2025 provides a material improvement to near-term liquidity and reduces immediate refinancing needs. If sustained, this supports funding of R&D and commercialization, lowers short-term solvency risk and strengthens the firm's ability to execute strategic priorities.

Specialty pharma niche and commercial capability

Orexo's focus on specialty treatments—particularly for substance use disorder—and established U.S. commercial capabilities are durable advantages. Niche therapeutic focus plus drug delivery/formulation expertise creates barriers to entry, supports differentiated product pricing and fosters partner interest for licensing or co-promotion over the medium term.

Balance sheet repaired in 2025 versus 2024

Restoration of equity in 2025 and debt roughly equal to equity (debt-to-equity ~1.0) indicate an improved capital structure versus recent extreme stress. This enhancement improves financial flexibility to support operations or partnerships and reduces immediate insolvency risk, though multi-year volatility warrants continued monitoring.

Negative Factors

Severe revenue collapse in 2025

A near-total revenue collapse materially erodes scale economies and the commercial foundation needed to fund R&D and fixed costs. Such a dramatic drop implies structural or execution issues that can persist beyond a single year, making revenue recovery uncertain and weakening long-term prospects for consistent product sales and margin rebuilding.

Extreme margin deterioration and persistent losses

Deeply negative margins reflect a mismatch between costs and revenue and suggest either one-off charges or structural pricing/production issues. Persistently negative profitability depletes capital, limits reinvestment, and raises the risk that positive cash flow in one year may not be repeatable without meaningful operational or commercial fixes.

Historic leverage and equity volatility

Prior negative equity and episodes of extreme leverage indicate weak balance-sheet resilience. That history increases refinancing and covenant risk, constrains investment capacity, and can elevate borrowing costs or dilute shareholders if new capital is required, limiting the firm's ability to pursue strategic initiatives reliably.

Orexo AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Orexo AB (publ), a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes pharmaceuticals and digital therapies in the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom. Its products include Zubsolv tablets for the treatment of opioid dependence; Abstral for the treatment of breakthrough pain in cancer patients; and Edluar for the treatment of short-term insomnia. The company's development products comprise OX124, a medication for naloxone rescue; OX125, a medication for nalmefene rescue; OX640, a medication for allergic reactions; and OX338 sublingual tablet formulation of ketorolac for treatment of moderate to severe pain. It is also developing OX-MPI program for the treatment of microvascular diseases in chronic inflammatory conditions. The company's digital therapies comprise deprexis therapy for the treatment of mild to severe depression; vorvida for alcohol use disorder; and modia for opioid use disorder. Orexo AB (publ) was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Uppsala, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Orexo makes money primarily by commercializing prescription pharmaceuticals. Its core revenue stream is product sales from medicines it markets (historically including an opioid use disorder treatment in the U.S.), which generate revenue when prescriptions are filled through wholesalers and pharmacies and reimbursed by payers. Additional revenue can come from partnering arrangements typical in pharma—such as licensing its products or technology to other companies and receiving milestone payments or royalties—when such agreements are in place; if there are no active agreements or publicly disclosed figures for specific periods, null.

Orexo AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financial quality is weak. The income statement deteriorated sharply in 2025 with a 95.4% revenue decline and deeply negative margins, while the balance sheet shows prior strain (negative equity in 2024 and high leverage volatility). The main offset is a notable 2025 rebound to positive operating and free cash flow, improving near-term liquidity but not yet proving durability.

Income Statement

Profitability is weak and deteriorated sharply in the latest annual period: revenue collapsed to 26.0m in 2025 (down 95.4% year-over-year) and gross profit turned deeply negative (gross margin -213.5%), driving very large operating losses (EBIT margin -1,357.3%) and a steep net loss (net margin -499.2%). While prior years showed strong gross margins (roughly mid-80% to 90%), the company has been consistently loss-making across the period, and the 2025 step-down indicates elevated execution/one-off cost risk and a fragile earnings base.

Balance Sheet

Leverage and equity quality are key concerns. Debt is roughly equal to equity in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~1.00), but the capital structure has been volatile: equity was negative in 2024, and leverage was very high in 2023 (debt-to-equity ~8.0). Returns on equity are also unstable and generally weak/negative in most years, reflecting persistent losses and balance sheet strain. The 2025 equity position appears repaired versus 2024, but the multi-year volatility raises risk around financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash flow shows a mixed picture with a notable near-term improvement. After multiple years of negative operating and free cash flow (2021–2024), 2025 turned positive with operating cash flow and free cash flow both at 173.0m, and free cash flow growth very strong year-over-year. However, cash generation is not yet consistently reliable across years, and operating cash flow covered only about 55% of EBIT in 2025, signaling that the business is still not producing cash in line with its operating loss profile and that sustainability of the rebound remains a key watch item.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	26.00M	590.00M	638.80M	624.30M	565.00M
Gross Profit	-55.50M	517.90M	549.90M	521.70M	486.10M
EBITDA	-285.90M	58.60M	-22.10M	-73.90M	-141.30M
Net Income	-129.80M	-203.00M	-128.30M	-177.60M	-223.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.30B	594.80M	786.60M	1.11B	1.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	912.40M	123.30M	171.00M	351.80M	504.10M
Total Debt	492.20M	476.00M	473.80M	539.60M	550.50M
Total Liabilities	812.20M	721.10M	727.70M	915.10M	924.10M
Stockholders Equity	490.60M	-126.30M	58.90M	193.90M	349.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	173.00M	-37.20M	-113.90M	-180.50M	-281.80M
Operating Cash Flow	173.00M	-32.60M	-95.00M	-156.60M	-229.00M
Investing Cash Flow	635.90M	-5.30M	200.80M	-234.70M	-52.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.30M	-15.50M	-70.10M	-21.40M	250.60M

Orexo AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 34.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:ORX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 34.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.32, above the 50-day MA of 28.09, and above the 200-day MA of 26.00, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.60 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.87 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:ORX.

Orexo AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NANEXA	56 Neutral	kr641.88M	-60.92	-48.65%	―	-60.33%	58.04%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ENZY	45 Neutral	kr555.86M	-8.89	―	―	19.17%	24.53%
ORX	44 Neutral	kr777.01M	-8.03	―	―	-8.79%	-91.09%
ALZCUR	44 Neutral	kr194.78M	-4.22	-90.66%	―	―	15.74%
KLAR	42 Neutral	kr193.83M	-3.17	-530.21%	―	―	17.42%
ERMA	40 Underperform	kr27.30M	-1.77	―	―	―	―

Orexo AB Corporate Events

Orexo Restructures Leadership to Drive Pipeline and AmorphOX-Focused Growth

Orexo AB is reshaping its organization and management team following the divestment of Zubsolv in the U.S. market, sharpening its focus on advancing new development programs and its AmorphOX technology platform. The company aims to retain strong U.S. commercial insight while pivoting toward pipeline growth and strategic partnerships to support long‑term value creation.

As part of the changes, industry veteran Lisa Moore becomes Senior Vice President, Products and Portfolio Strategy, joining the management team to steer long‑term product vision and ensure development candidates align with customer needs and growth priorities. Long‑time Orexo US Inc. president Robert DeLuca will retire from his role after more than a decade leading the U.S. business and Zubsolv commercialization, but will stay on through May 2026 and then continue in an advisory capacity to support strategic projects and the transition of Zubsolv US to Dexcel Pharma USA.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo to Redeem SEK 500m Social Bonds After Zubsolv Rights Sale

Orexo AB will use proceeds from the completed divestment of U.S. rights to its opioid use disorder therapy Zubsolv to redeem in full its outstanding SEK 500 million senior secured social bonds maturing 2024/2028. The company has exercised its right to early redemption, setting March 30, 2026 as the settlement date, and bondholders will receive 103.25 percent of nominal value plus accrued interest, reinforcing Orexo’s balance sheet and simplifying its capital structure.

The early redemption will also lead to the delisting of the social bonds from Nasdaq Stockholm’s sustainable bonds list, marking an exit from this specific funding instrument as Orexo pivots its financial and operational focus post‑Zubsolv divestment. The move underscores a strategic shift away from dependence on the U.S. Zubsolv franchise and may improve financial flexibility for advancing the company’s broader pipeline and AmorphOX‑based platforms.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo Adjusts Share Structure After U.S. Zubsolv Divestment

Orexo AB’s board has approved the conversion of 416,417 Class C shares into ordinary shares and their transfer, free of charge, to former employees participating in the company’s long‑term incentive programs from 2023, 2024, and 2025. These participants, whose employment ended following the divestment of Orexo’s U.S. Zubsolv business to Dexcel Pharma USA, are being treated as “good leavers” under the incentive plan rules.

Following the conversion and share transfers, Orexo’s total share count will remain 37,156,639, but the composition will shift to 35,127,056 ordinary shares and 2,029,583 Class C shares. The company will hold no ordinary shares in treasury and will retain 2,029,583 Class C shares for ongoing incentive programs, clarifying its post‑divestment capital structure and aligning equity-based compensation with the reshaped organization.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo Boosts Cash and Earnings After USD 91 Million Zubsolv US Sale

Orexo has completed the sale of all US rights to its opioid dependence treatment Zubsolv to Dexcel Pharma USA for USD 91 million plus USD 3.8 million in inventory value, along with potential contingent payments of up to USD 16.8 million tied to future net sales. The transaction drove a sharp improvement in quarterly net earnings to SEK 724.8 million and boosted cash and cash equivalents to SEK 912 million, despite continued operations remaining loss-making with negative EBIT and operating cash flow. Total net revenues from continued operations declined year-on-year, while discontinued operations related to the Zubsolv US business remained the main earnings contributor, and the board has proposed no dividend for 2025 as Orexo reallocates its strengthened balance sheet toward development projects and prepares for an R&D Day in March 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo to Present New Strategy and AmorphOX Pipeline at March R&D Day

Orexo AB will host an R&D Day for investors, analysts and media at the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences in Stockholm on March 24, 2026, where CEO Nikolaj Sørensen and the management team will outline the company’s updated strategic direction and priorities following the divestment of Zubsolv in the U.S. market. The event will also spotlight the science and commercial potential of its AmorphOX drug‑delivery platform, provide updates on ongoing development programs and target markets, and feature a discussion on the growing use of alpha‑2 agonists such as xylazine and their implications for overdose reversal, underlining the strategic importance of Orexo’s OX390 program for addressing emerging unmet needs in addiction and overdose care.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo to Present 2025 Full-Year Results with Focus on Zubsolv US Divestment

Orexo AB will publish its Full Year Report 2025 on 5 February at 7:00 a.m. CET, with a particular emphasis on fourth‑quarter developments and the operational and financial implications of the divestment of its US Zubsolv business. Later that day at 2:00 p.m. CET, the company will host a teleconference and audiocast presentation led by CEO Nikolaj Sørensen and CFO Fredrik Järrsten, offering analysts, investors, and media an opportunity to receive detailed commentary on the results and ask questions, underscoring Orexo’s efforts to maintain transparency with stakeholders during a period of strategic portfolio transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo Completes Zubsolv US Rights Deal With Dexcel to Refocus on AmorphOX Pipeline

Orexo has completed its transaction with Dexcel Pharma USA, acquiring the full US rights to Zubsolv, its buprenorphine/naloxone sublingual tablet for opioid use disorder, for an upfront cash consideration of USD 91 million plus USD 3.8 million in inventory value and potential contingent payments of up to USD 16.8 million tied to net sales in 2026–2027. The company plans to use the proceeds to redeem its outstanding corporate bond and to sharpen strategic focus on its AmorphOX-based pipeline, including overdose and anaphylaxis rescue drugs such as Izipry, OX640 and OX390, while adopting a partnering-led development model that aims to reduce risk, support investment in biologics applications like GLP‑1 agonists and vaccines, and leverage its US legacy and BARDA collaboration for future commercialization.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo Sells US Rights to Zubsolv to Dexcel to Repay Debt and Fund AmorphOX Pipeline

Orexo AB has agreed to sell the full US rights to its opioid use disorder treatment Zubsolv to Dexcel Pharma USA for a fixed purchase price of USD 91 million plus USD 4–5 million for inventory at closing, and potential contingent payments of up to USD 16.8 million tied to 2026–2027 sales. The deal, expected to close by January 31, 2026, follows a strategic review and will allow Orexo to redeem its outstanding corporate bond and become debt-free, while many US employees will transition to Dexcel to ensure continuity of Zubsolv supply and support. Freed-up capital will be directed toward advancing Orexo’s key growth drivers, including its AmorphOX-based pipeline with rescue medications Izipry for opioid overdose, OX640 for anaphylaxis, and OX390 for adulterated overdoses, the latter co-funded by up to USD 51 million from BARDA, and to expanding AmorphOX into biomolecules such as GLP-1 agonists and vaccines under a partnering-focused business model.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.