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Orexo AB (SE:ORX)
:ORX
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Orexo AB (ORX) AI Stock Analysis

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SE:ORX

Orexo AB

(OTC:ORX)

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Neutral 47 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
kr29.00
▼(-25.93% Downside)
Orexo AB's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, characterized by declining revenues and persistent losses. While technical indicators and earnings call insights provide some positive signals, the company's valuation and financial health pose significant risks.

Orexo AB (ORX) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

Orexo AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOrexo AB (ORX) is a pharmaceutical company based in Sweden, specializing in the development and commercialization of innovative treatments for opioid dependence and other mental health disorders. The company operates primarily in the pharmaceutical sector, focusing on providing effective solutions for patients with unmet medical needs. Orexo's core products include Zubsolv, a medication for the treatment of opioid dependence, and other proprietary products aimed at improving patient adherence and outcomes in mental health.
How the Company Makes MoneyOrexo AB generates revenue primarily through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, particularly Zubsolv, which is marketed in the United States. The company also engages in partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical firms, which can include licensing agreements and co-development initiatives that provide additional revenue streams. Furthermore, Orexo may receive milestone payments and royalties from these partnerships based on sales performance and product development achievements. The company's focus on innovative formulations and its ability to address specific patient needs contribute to its competitive advantage and financial performance.

Orexo AB Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 23, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant R&D progress and strategic developments, such as the BARDA partnership for OX390 and positive growth in the U.S. commercial segment. However, financial challenges remain, including negative EBITDA, revenue declines in the U.S. commercial business, and market uncertainties for OX640. Despite these challenges, strategic initiatives and partnerships indicate potential for future growth.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant R&D Progress
Great progress in Orexo's pipeline, particularly with the GLP-1 agonist project OX472 showing promising in vivo data. Also, received BARDA funding for the OX390 project, potentially worth up to $51 million.
Positive Movement in U.S. Commercial Segment
Buprenorphine and naloxone market growth in the U.S. increased by 4% year-over-year, with a slight increase of 1% over the last quarter. The commercial segment is now surpassing Medicaid as the largest segment.
BARDA Partnership for OX390
BARDA funding secured for OX390, initially worth $8 million and potentially up to $51 million, to develop a nasal rescue medication for fentanyl and xylazine overdoses.
Strong U.S. Commercial EBIT
U.S. business EBIT was SEK 38 million for the quarter, up from SEK 25 million year-over-year, with an EBIT margin improvement from 19% to 34%.
Negative Updates
Negative EBITDA
Reported negative EBITDA of minus SEK 9.8 million for Q3, partly due to SEK 13 million costs related to the long-term incentive programs.
Revenue Decline in U.S. Commercial Business
Zubsolv revenue in the U.S. declined by 4.8% year-over-year in local currency, mainly due to negative FX impact and lower demand from UnitedHealth Group and Humana.
Market Uncertainty for OX640
Increased uncertainty around the U.S. market for OX640, with some delay in partnering discussions due to slower-than-expected market development.
Legal Challenges
Ongoing legal process with the U.S. Department of Justice, with no material movement during the quarter.
Company Guidance
In the recent conference call, Orexo provided several key metrics and financial updates for the third quarter of 2025. The company reported total revenues of SEK 119 million, with SEK 114 million coming from Zubsolv in the U.S. commercial market, marking a year-over-year decline primarily due to a SEK 11 million FX impact. EBITDA was negative SEK 9.8 million, affected by SEK 13 million in costs related to long-term incentive programs. However, the company reaffirmed its 2025 outlook, expecting positive EBITDA for the full year supported by anticipated inventory build-up in Q4. Orexo also highlighted significant R&D progress, notably securing a BARDA fund for their OX390 project, initially worth $8 million with potential to reach $51 million. This funding will support OX390 development until the first half of 2027. Additionally, Orexo's GLP-1 agonist project, OX472, showed promising in vivo data, and the company continues to explore strategic opportunities for its pipeline products, including potential partnerships for OX640 and advances in their nasal powder delivery technology.

Orexo AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Orexo AB faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, persistent losses, high leverage, and negative equity. Despite slight improvements in cash flow, the company's financial health remains strained, indicating a need for strategic interventions.
Income Statement
30
Negative
Orexo AB's income statement shows a concerning trend with declining revenues and consistent net losses over recent years. The gross profit margin remains strong at 86.7% TTM, but the company struggles with significant negative EBIT and net profit margins, indicating operational inefficiencies. Despite a slight revenue growth in TTM, the overall trajectory suggests financial instability.
Balance Sheet
25
Negative
The balance sheet of Orexo AB reveals a negative stockholders' equity, indicative of financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, underscoring high leverage and potential solvency issues. An equity ratio of -30.5% TTM highlights a precarious capital structure with total liabilities outweighing total assets.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Orexo AB has shown slight improvement in free cash flow recently, moving from negative to positive territory TTM. However, the operating cash flow remains weak relative to net income, reflecting difficulties in converting sales to cash. Despite the improvement in free cash flow, the overall cash flow position suggests liquidity challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue561.20M590.00M638.80M624.30M565.00M663.60M
Gross Profit489.70M517.90M549.90M521.70M486.10M598.00M
EBITDA28.00M58.60M-32.30M-73.90M-141.30M16.80M
Net Income-213.80M-203.00M-128.30M-177.60M-223.50M-84.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets533.40M594.80M786.60M1.11B1.27B1.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments121.30M123.30M171.00M351.80M504.10M505.30M
Total Debt495.60M476.00M473.80M539.60M550.50M291.00M
Total Liabilities730.40M721.10M727.70M915.10M924.10M674.40M
Stockholders Equity-197.00M-126.30M58.90M193.90M349.60M558.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow24.20M-37.20M-113.90M-180.50M-281.80M-172.90M
Operating Cash Flow25.00M-32.60M-95.00M-156.60M-229.00M16.80M
Investing Cash Flow-20.70M-5.30M200.80M-234.70M-52.90M-189.10M
Financing Cash Flow-13.30M-15.50M-70.10M-21.40M250.60M-111.30M

Orexo AB Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price39.15
Price Trends
50DMA
29.88
Negative
100DMA
25.02
Positive
200DMA
20.52
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.01
Positive
RSI
37.93
Neutral
STOCH
17.89
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:ORX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 39.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.40, above the 50-day MA of 29.88, and above the 200-day MA of 20.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SE:ORX.

Orexo AB Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
kr953.40M-8.79%-91.09%
kr252.81M-161.07%22.73%
kr119.79M-3899.10%1523.75%20.82%
€305.97M-34.87%-38.56%69.37%
kr468.48M19.17%24.53%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SE:ORX
Orexo AB
27.80
17.08
159.33%
SE:ALZCUR
AlzeCure Pharma AB
2.20
0.56
33.90%
SE:KLAR
Klaria Pharma Holding AB
0.49
-0.08
-13.50%
SE:NANEXA
Nanexa AB
1.87
0.58
44.96%
SE:ENZY
Enzymatica AB
1.93
0.13
7.22%
SE:ERMA
Enorama Pharma AB
2.80
-0.80
-22.22%

Orexo AB Corporate Events

Orexo AB Reports Q3 2025 Earnings and Strategic Developments
Oct 24, 2025

Orexo AB is a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company specializing in developing drugs using advanced drug delivery technologies, with a focus on addressing opioid dependence in the US. In its Q3 2025 earnings report, Orexo AB reported total net revenues of SEK 118.7 million, a decrease from the previous year, and a negative EBITDA of SEK -9.8 million, impacted by costs associated with long-term incentive programs. Despite these financial challenges, the company highlighted promising developments in its AmorphOX® technology, including positive in-vivo data for a powder-based intranasal GLP-1 agonist medication and a significant partnership with BARDA for the development of OX390, a rescue medication for adulterated opioid overdoses. The US Commercial segment, which includes the Zubsolv® product for opioid use disorder, faced revenue declines due to foreign exchange rate impacts and reduced inventory levels at wholesalers. Looking forward, Orexo remains optimistic about its financial outlook for 2025, maintaining its full-year guidance and expecting improvements in Zubsolv sales in the fourth quarter. The company continues to focus on leveraging its AmorphOX® platform for future growth and expanding its pipeline of innovative drug delivery solutions.

Orexo AB Reports Q3 2025 Financials and Secures BARDA Award
Oct 23, 2025

Orexo AB reported a decrease in net revenues and a negative EBITDA for Q3 2025, with significant costs associated with LTIP programs impacting financial results. However, the company showcased positive in-vivo data for a new intranasal GLP-1 agonist medication supported by its AmorphOX® technology and secured a substantial award from BARDA for developing an intranasal rescue medication, indicating potential future growth and innovation.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo AB Announces Nomination Committee for 2026 AGM
Oct 17, 2025

Orexo AB has announced the appointment of its Nomination Committee for the Annual General Meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026. The committee, representing approximately 34% of the company’s voting power, includes members from Novo Holdings, The Danish Labour Market Supplementary Pension, and private investors. This strategic move ensures diverse representation and stakeholder engagement in Orexo’s governance, potentially impacting its future strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo AB to Present Q3 2025 Interim Report and Project Updates
Oct 15, 2025

Orexo AB has announced that it will release its Q3 2025 Interim Report on October 23, followed by a presentation featuring updates on its partnership with BARDA and the OX390 project. This event will include insights from the CEO, CFO, and Chief Medical Officer, and will be accessible via live audiocast and teleconference, highlighting the company’s ongoing strategic developments and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo AB Enhances R&D with Strategic Move to Uppsala Science Park
Oct 1, 2025

Orexo AB is relocating to new premises in Uppsala Science Park as part of a strategic initiative to enhance its research and development capabilities. This move aims to foster greater collaboration, innovation, and sustainability while offering state-of-the-art laboratories and flexible office spaces. The new location is expected to reduce costs through efficient space utilization and lower energy consumption, thereby strengthening Orexo’s ability to attract and retain talent, which is crucial for developing future innovative medicines.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo Secures $8 Million for OX390 Development from BARDA
Sep 29, 2025

Orexo AB’s US subsidiary has received an $8 million award from BARDA to support the development of OX390, an intranasal rescue medication for opioid overdoses. This funding is part of a larger potential $50.9 million package contingent on meeting specific milestones. OX390 aims to address the growing issue of adulterated opioid overdoses in the US using Orexo’s AmorphOX technology, with the company retaining commercial rights upon FDA approval.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo AB to Participate in Pareto Securities’ 16th Annual Healthcare Conference
Sep 8, 2025

Orexo AB announced its participation in the 16th Annual Healthcare Conference organized by Pareto Securities, scheduled for September 16, 2025, in Stockholm, Sweden. During the event, Robert Rönn, SVP and Head of R&D, will present the company’s developments, and both he and Lena Wange, Investor Relations Director, will be available for one-on-one meetings. This participation highlights Orexo’s ongoing engagement with the healthcare investment community and its commitment to showcasing its advancements in pharmaceutical solutions, potentially enhancing its industry positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo’s AmorphOX Technology Shows Promise for Intranasal GLP-1 Medication
Sep 5, 2025

Orexo AB announced positive results from a preclinical study using its AmorphOX technology to develop a powder-based intranasal formulation of semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist. The study showed that the intranasal formulations achieved significantly higher plasma concentrations and bioavailability compared to oral tablets, suggesting potential for needle-free delivery and improved patient adherence. This advancement could enhance Orexo’s strategic positioning by enabling partnerships to expand the use of this novel delivery method for more efficient treatment options.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 24, 2025