Orexo AB (ORX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr973.05M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 101.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.15
• Revenue Growth: -8.79%
• EPS Growth: -91.09%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 110
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): -1.28
• Shares Outstanding: 34,710,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 22,969
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 101,192
• PEG Ratio: 0.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.12
• Price to Sales (P/S): 40.09
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -6.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr22.00M

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: kr27.00 ▼(-21.85% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance (sharp 2025 revenue/margin deterioration and a loss-making profile with prior balance sheet strain), with only partial support from improved 2025 cash flow. Technical indicators are also soft (negative MACD and price below key moving averages). The earnings call adds some upside via reaffirmed outlook and BARDA-backed pipeline progress, but is tempered by negative EBITDA and continued commercial and legal uncertainties.

Positive Factors

BARDA funding for OX390

Securing BARDA support provides non-dilutive, milestone-linked funding that materially de-risks OX390 development through H1 2027. This reduces near-term cash burden, strengthens program credibility for partners, and improves the company’s runway to advance a potential commercial rescue product.

High gross profit margin

An ~86.7% gross margin indicates product-level economics that are structurally favorable for scalability. If revenue stabilizes, high gross margins allow the firm to allocate more to R&D and commercialization while absorbing SG&A, improving the pathway to sustained profitability over months.

Pipeline progress — OX472 GLP-1

Positive in vivo data for OX472 diversifies Orexo’s pipeline beyond opioid dependence, potentially opening into large GLP‑1 markets. Sustained clinical progress would materially change long-term revenue mix and partnership interest, offering a structural growth avenue if development advances to clinics.

Negative Factors

Negative equity and high leverage

A negative equity position and a -30.5% equity ratio signal a precarious capital structure and high leverage. This materially restricts financing flexibility, elevates refinancing and solvency risk, and limits strategic options to fund R&D or commercial expansion without dilutive or costly funding.

Declining revenues and persistent losses

Ongoing revenue declines combined with persistent net losses undermine operating leverage and burn cash reserves. Without sustained revenue recovery or meaningful margin cuts, the company faces structural challenges to reach positive operating profitability and to self-fund clinical and commercial activities.

Ongoing U.S. DOJ legal process

An unresolved DOJ investigation creates durable regulatory and reputational risk that can affect U.S. commercialization, payer relationships, and partner willingness to engage. Legal exposure can lead to fines, restrictions, or prolonged distraction that materially impairs strategic execution over months to years.

Orexo AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Orexo AB (publ), a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes pharmaceuticals and digital therapies in the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom. Its products include Zubsolv tablets for the treatment of opioid dependence; Abstral for the treatment of breakthrough pain in cancer patients; and Edluar for the treatment of short-term insomnia. The company's development products comprise OX124, a medication for naloxone rescue; OX125, a medication for nalmefene rescue; OX640, a medication for allergic reactions; and OX338 sublingual tablet formulation of ketorolac for treatment of moderate to severe pain. It is also developing OX-MPI program for the treatment of microvascular diseases in chronic inflammatory conditions. The company's digital therapies comprise deprexis therapy for the treatment of mild to severe depression; vorvida for alcohol use disorder; and modia for opioid use disorder. Orexo AB (publ) was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Uppsala, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Orexo generates revenue through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, particularly Zubsolv, which is marketed in various countries, mainly in the United States. The company's revenue model includes direct sales to pharmacies and healthcare providers, as well as royalties and milestone payments from partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies. Orexo has established strategic collaborations with various organizations to enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach, which contributes significantly to its earnings. Additionally, Orexo's focus on innovation and development of new products allows it to tap into new markets and revenue streams, further solidifying its financial position.

Orexo AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financial quality is weak: 2025 showed a sharp revenue collapse and deeply negative margins, alongside a history of losses. Balance sheet risk remains elevated due to prior negative equity and leverage volatility, partially offset by a meaningful 2025 turnaround to positive operating and free cash flow that improves near-term liquidity but is not yet proven durable.

Income Statement

Profitability is weak and deteriorated sharply in the latest annual period: revenue collapsed to 26.0m in 2025 (down 95.4% year-over-year) and gross profit turned deeply negative (gross margin -213.5%), driving very large operating losses (EBIT margin -1,357.3%) and a steep net loss (net margin -499.2%). While prior years showed strong gross margins (roughly mid-80% to 90%), the company has been consistently loss-making across the period, and the 2025 step-down indicates elevated execution/one-off cost risk and a fragile earnings base.

Balance Sheet

Leverage and equity quality are key concerns. Debt is roughly equal to equity in 2025 (debt-to-equity ~1.00), but the capital structure has been volatile: equity was negative in 2024, and leverage was very high in 2023 (debt-to-equity ~8.0). Returns on equity are also unstable and generally weak/negative in most years, reflecting persistent losses and balance sheet strain. The 2025 equity position appears repaired versus 2024, but the multi-year volatility raises risk around financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash flow shows a mixed picture with a notable near-term improvement. After multiple years of negative operating and free cash flow (2021–2024), 2025 turned positive with operating cash flow and free cash flow both at 173.0m, and free cash flow growth very strong year-over-year. However, cash generation is not yet consistently reliable across years, and operating cash flow covered only about 55% of EBIT in 2025, signaling that the business is still not producing cash in line with its operating loss profile and that sustainability of the rebound remains a key watch item.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	26.00M	590.00M	638.80M	624.30M	565.00M
Gross Profit	-55.50M	517.90M	549.90M	521.70M	486.10M
EBITDA	-285.90M	58.60M	-22.10M	-73.90M	-141.30M
Net Income	-129.80M	-203.00M	-128.30M	-177.60M	-223.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.30B	594.80M	786.60M	1.11B	1.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	912.40M	123.30M	171.00M	351.80M	504.10M
Total Debt	492.20M	476.00M	473.80M	539.60M	550.50M
Total Liabilities	812.20M	721.10M	727.70M	915.10M	924.10M
Stockholders Equity	490.60M	-126.30M	58.90M	193.90M	349.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	173.00M	-37.20M	-113.90M	-180.50M	-281.80M
Operating Cash Flow	173.00M	-32.60M	-95.00M	-156.60M	-229.00M
Investing Cash Flow	635.90M	-5.30M	200.80M	-234.70M	-52.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.30M	-15.50M	-70.10M	-21.40M	250.60M

Orexo AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 34.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:ORX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.68, above the 50-day MA of 29.03, and above the 200-day MA of 25.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:ORX.

Orexo AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NANEXA	56 Neutral	kr632.32M	-54.51	-48.65%	―	-60.33%	58.04%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
ENZY	45 Neutral	kr475.76M	-9.17	―	―	19.17%	24.53%
ORX	44 Neutral	kr973.05M	-7.53	―	―	-8.79%	-91.09%
ALZCUR	44 Neutral	kr216.61M	-4.11	-90.66%	―	―	15.74%
ERMA	44 Neutral	kr56.84M	-0.64	―	―	―	―
KLAR	42 Neutral	kr201.21M	-3.66	-530.21%	―	―	17.42%

Orexo AB Corporate Events

Orexo Boosts Cash and Earnings After USD 91 Million Zubsolv US Sale

Orexo has completed the sale of all US rights to its opioid dependence treatment Zubsolv to Dexcel Pharma USA for USD 91 million plus USD 3.8 million in inventory value, along with potential contingent payments of up to USD 16.8 million tied to future net sales. The transaction drove a sharp improvement in quarterly net earnings to SEK 724.8 million and boosted cash and cash equivalents to SEK 912 million, despite continued operations remaining loss-making with negative EBIT and operating cash flow. Total net revenues from continued operations declined year-on-year, while discontinued operations related to the Zubsolv US business remained the main earnings contributor, and the board has proposed no dividend for 2025 as Orexo reallocates its strengthened balance sheet toward development projects and prepares for an R&D Day in March 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo to Present New Strategy and AmorphOX Pipeline at March R&D Day

Orexo AB will host an R&D Day for investors, analysts and media at the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences in Stockholm on March 24, 2026, where CEO Nikolaj Sørensen and the management team will outline the company’s updated strategic direction and priorities following the divestment of Zubsolv in the U.S. market. The event will also spotlight the science and commercial potential of its AmorphOX drug‑delivery platform, provide updates on ongoing development programs and target markets, and feature a discussion on the growing use of alpha‑2 agonists such as xylazine and their implications for overdose reversal, underlining the strategic importance of Orexo’s OX390 program for addressing emerging unmet needs in addiction and overdose care.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo to Present 2025 Full-Year Results with Focus on Zubsolv US Divestment

Orexo AB will publish its Full Year Report 2025 on 5 February at 7:00 a.m. CET, with a particular emphasis on fourth‑quarter developments and the operational and financial implications of the divestment of its US Zubsolv business. Later that day at 2:00 p.m. CET, the company will host a teleconference and audiocast presentation led by CEO Nikolaj Sørensen and CFO Fredrik Järrsten, offering analysts, investors, and media an opportunity to receive detailed commentary on the results and ask questions, underscoring Orexo’s efforts to maintain transparency with stakeholders during a period of strategic portfolio transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo Completes Zubsolv US Rights Deal With Dexcel to Refocus on AmorphOX Pipeline

Orexo has completed its transaction with Dexcel Pharma USA, acquiring the full US rights to Zubsolv, its buprenorphine/naloxone sublingual tablet for opioid use disorder, for an upfront cash consideration of USD 91 million plus USD 3.8 million in inventory value and potential contingent payments of up to USD 16.8 million tied to net sales in 2026–2027. The company plans to use the proceeds to redeem its outstanding corporate bond and to sharpen strategic focus on its AmorphOX-based pipeline, including overdose and anaphylaxis rescue drugs such as Izipry, OX640 and OX390, while adopting a partnering-led development model that aims to reduce risk, support investment in biologics applications like GLP‑1 agonists and vaccines, and leverage its US legacy and BARDA collaboration for future commercialization.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo Sells US Rights to Zubsolv to Dexcel to Repay Debt and Fund AmorphOX Pipeline

Orexo AB has agreed to sell the full US rights to its opioid use disorder treatment Zubsolv to Dexcel Pharma USA for a fixed purchase price of USD 91 million plus USD 4–5 million for inventory at closing, and potential contingent payments of up to USD 16.8 million tied to 2026–2027 sales. The deal, expected to close by January 31, 2026, follows a strategic review and will allow Orexo to redeem its outstanding corporate bond and become debt-free, while many US employees will transition to Dexcel to ensure continuity of Zubsolv supply and support. Freed-up capital will be directed toward advancing Orexo’s key growth drivers, including its AmorphOX-based pipeline with rescue medications Izipry for opioid overdose, OX640 for anaphylaxis, and OX390 for adulterated overdoses, the latter co-funded by up to USD 51 million from BARDA, and to expanding AmorphOX into biomolecules such as GLP-1 agonists and vaccines under a partnering-focused business model.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.