Orexo AB (ORX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr1.03B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 101.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.19
• Revenue Growth: -8.79%
• EPS Growth: -91.09%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 110
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): -0.90
• Shares Outstanding: 34,710,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 22,969
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 101,192
• PEG Ratio: -0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): -4.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.02
• P/FCF Ratio: -16.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: kr31.00 ▼(-10.27% Downside)

Orexo AB's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, characterized by declining revenues and persistent losses. While technical indicators and earnings call insights provide some positive signals, the company's valuation and financial health pose significant risks.

Positive Factors

BARDA funding for OX390

Securing BARDA support provides non-dilutive, milestone-linked funding that materially de-risks OX390 development through H1 2027. This reduces near-term cash burden, strengthens program credibility for partners, and improves the company’s runway to advance a potential commercial rescue product.

High gross profit margin

An ~86.7% gross margin indicates product-level economics that are structurally favorable for scalability. If revenue stabilizes, high gross margins allow the firm to allocate more to R&D and commercialization while absorbing SG&A, improving the pathway to sustained profitability over months.

Pipeline progress — OX472 GLP-1

Positive in vivo data for OX472 diversifies Orexo’s pipeline beyond opioid dependence, potentially opening into large GLP‑1 markets. Sustained clinical progress would materially change long-term revenue mix and partnership interest, offering a structural growth avenue if development advances to clinics.

Negative Factors

Negative equity and high leverage

A negative equity position and a -30.5% equity ratio signal a precarious capital structure and high leverage. This materially restricts financing flexibility, elevates refinancing and solvency risk, and limits strategic options to fund R&D or commercial expansion without dilutive or costly funding.

Declining revenues and persistent losses

Ongoing revenue declines combined with persistent net losses undermine operating leverage and burn cash reserves. Without sustained revenue recovery or meaningful margin cuts, the company faces structural challenges to reach positive operating profitability and to self-fund clinical and commercial activities.

Ongoing U.S. DOJ legal process

An unresolved DOJ investigation creates durable regulatory and reputational risk that can affect U.S. commercialization, payer relationships, and partner willingness to engage. Legal exposure can lead to fines, restrictions, or prolonged distraction that materially impairs strategic execution over months to years.

Orexo AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Orexo AB (publ), a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes pharmaceuticals and digital therapies in the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom. Its products include Zubsolv tablets for the treatment of opioid dependence; Abstral for the treatment of breakthrough pain in cancer patients; and Edluar for the treatment of short-term insomnia. The company's development products comprise OX124, a medication for naloxone rescue; OX125, a medication for nalmefene rescue; OX640, a medication for allergic reactions; and OX338 sublingual tablet formulation of ketorolac for treatment of moderate to severe pain. It is also developing OX-MPI program for the treatment of microvascular diseases in chronic inflammatory conditions. The company's digital therapies comprise deprexis therapy for the treatment of mild to severe depression; vorvida for alcohol use disorder; and modia for opioid use disorder. Orexo AB (publ) was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Uppsala, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Orexo generates revenue through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, particularly Zubsolv, which is marketed in various countries, mainly in the United States. The company's revenue model includes direct sales to pharmacies and healthcare providers, as well as royalties and milestone payments from partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies. Orexo has established strategic collaborations with various organizations to enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach, which contributes significantly to its earnings. Additionally, Orexo's focus on innovation and development of new products allows it to tap into new markets and revenue streams, further solidifying its financial position.

Orexo AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Orexo AB faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, persistent losses, high leverage, and negative equity. Despite some improvement in cash flow, the company's financial health remains strained, indicating a need for strategic interventions.

Income Statement

Orexo AB's income statement shows a concerning trend with declining revenues and consistent net losses over recent years. The gross profit margin remains strong at 86.7% TTM, but the company struggles with significant negative EBIT and net profit margins, indicating operational inefficiencies. Despite a slight revenue growth in TTM, the overall trajectory suggests financial instability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Orexo AB reveals a negative stockholders' equity, indicative of financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, underscoring high leverage and potential solvency issues. An equity ratio of -30.5% TTM highlights a precarious capital structure with total liabilities outweighing total assets.

Cash Flow

Orexo AB has shown slight improvement in free cash flow recently, moving from negative to positive territory TTM. However, the operating cash flow remains weak relative to net income, reflecting difficulties in converting sales to cash. Despite the improvement in free cash flow, the overall cash flow position suggests liquidity challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	561.20M	590.00M	638.80M	624.30M	565.00M	663.60M
Gross Profit	489.70M	517.90M	549.90M	521.70M	486.10M	598.00M
EBITDA	28.00M	58.60M	-22.10M	-73.90M	-141.30M	16.80M
Net Income	-213.80M	-203.00M	-128.30M	-177.60M	-223.50M	-84.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	533.40M	594.80M	786.60M	1.11B	1.27B	1.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	121.30M	123.30M	171.00M	351.80M	504.10M	505.30M
Total Debt	495.60M	476.00M	473.80M	539.60M	550.50M	291.00M
Total Liabilities	730.40M	721.10M	727.70M	915.10M	924.10M	674.40M
Stockholders Equity	-197.00M	-126.30M	58.90M	193.90M	349.60M	558.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	24.20M	-37.20M	-113.90M	-180.50M	-281.80M	-172.90M
Operating Cash Flow	25.00M	-32.60M	-95.00M	-156.60M	-229.00M	16.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-20.70M	-5.30M	200.80M	-234.70M	-52.90M	-189.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-13.30M	-15.50M	-70.10M	-21.40M	250.60M	-111.30M

Orexo AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 34.55
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:ORX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 34.55 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.05, above the 50-day MA of 28.41, and above the 200-day MA of 24.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SE:ORX.

Orexo AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
KLAR	49 Neutral	kr287.79M	-3.97	-530.21%	―	―	17.42%
NANEXA	48 Neutral	kr579.96M	-14.08	-48.65%	―	-60.33%	58.04%
ORX	47 Neutral	kr1.03B	-5.13	―	―	-8.79%	-91.09%
ERMA	43 Neutral	kr114.87M	-1.29	―	―	―	―
ALZCUR	42 Neutral	kr221.21M	-4.76	-90.66%	―	―	15.74%
ENZY	38 Underperform	kr478.19M	-8.83	―	―	19.17%	24.53%

Orexo AB Corporate Events

Orexo to Present 2025 Full-Year Results with Focus on Zubsolv US Divestment

Orexo AB will publish its Full Year Report 2025 on 5 February at 7:00 a.m. CET, with a particular emphasis on fourth‑quarter developments and the operational and financial implications of the divestment of its US Zubsolv business. Later that day at 2:00 p.m. CET, the company will host a teleconference and audiocast presentation led by CEO Nikolaj Sørensen and CFO Fredrik Järrsten, offering analysts, investors, and media an opportunity to receive detailed commentary on the results and ask questions, underscoring Orexo’s efforts to maintain transparency with stakeholders during a period of strategic portfolio transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo Completes Zubsolv US Rights Deal With Dexcel to Refocus on AmorphOX Pipeline

Orexo has completed its transaction with Dexcel Pharma USA, acquiring the full US rights to Zubsolv, its buprenorphine/naloxone sublingual tablet for opioid use disorder, for an upfront cash consideration of USD 91 million plus USD 3.8 million in inventory value and potential contingent payments of up to USD 16.8 million tied to net sales in 2026–2027. The company plans to use the proceeds to redeem its outstanding corporate bond and to sharpen strategic focus on its AmorphOX-based pipeline, including overdose and anaphylaxis rescue drugs such as Izipry, OX640 and OX390, while adopting a partnering-led development model that aims to reduce risk, support investment in biologics applications like GLP‑1 agonists and vaccines, and leverage its US legacy and BARDA collaboration for future commercialization.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.

Orexo Sells US Rights to Zubsolv to Dexcel to Repay Debt and Fund AmorphOX Pipeline

Orexo AB has agreed to sell the full US rights to its opioid use disorder treatment Zubsolv to Dexcel Pharma USA for a fixed purchase price of USD 91 million plus USD 4–5 million for inventory at closing, and potential contingent payments of up to USD 16.8 million tied to 2026–2027 sales. The deal, expected to close by January 31, 2026, follows a strategic review and will allow Orexo to redeem its outstanding corporate bond and become debt-free, while many US employees will transition to Dexcel to ensure continuity of Zubsolv supply and support. Freed-up capital will be directed toward advancing Orexo’s key growth drivers, including its AmorphOX-based pipeline with rescue medications Izipry for opioid overdose, OX640 for anaphylaxis, and OX390 for adulterated overdoses, the latter co-funded by up to USD 51 million from BARDA, and to expanding AmorphOX into biomolecules such as GLP-1 agonists and vaccines under a partnering-focused business model.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:ORX) stock is a Hold with a SEK29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orexo AB stock, see the SE:ORX Stock Forecast page.