Nepa AB (NEPA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr147.04M
• Dividend Yield: 8.09%
• Average Volume (3M): 25.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.17
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: SE
• Employees: 219
• Sector: Services
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Specialty Business Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.28
• Shares Outstanding: 7,863,186
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 35,865
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 25,862
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.54
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.83
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.8
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr337.00M

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: kr20.00 ▲(26.18% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/21/26

The score is held back primarily by deteriorating financial performance (declining revenue, multi-year losses, and recent cash burn), despite the benefit of a debt-free balance sheet. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD, but momentum is overbought. Valuation is mixed: a high dividend yield is a positive, while the negative P/E reflects ongoing losses.

Positive Factors

Debt-free balance sheet

No reported debt materially lowers fixed financial obligations and preserves strategic flexibility. Over the next 2–6 months this reduces bankruptcy and interest-rate risks, allowing management to prioritize product development or operational fixes without immediate refinance pressure.

Core software analytics addressing sustainability

The company's core software and analytics target measurement and reporting of carbon footprints for brands and retailers. Structural demand for credible sustainability metrics supports durable revenue opportunities as enterprises integrate environmental reporting into digital commerce and marketing processes.

Proven prior profitability and margins

Historical strong margins in 2021–2022 show the business model can scale to profitability when revenue and cost mix align. That track record implies operational levers exist to restore margins if demand stabilizes and cost discipline returns over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Sustained revenue decline

Consecutive annual revenue declines indicate persistent demand loss or pricing pressure. Falling top line erodes operating leverage, reduces gross margin recovery prospects, and undermines the company’s ability to generate sustainable operating cash flow absent a structural turnaround.

Negative gross profit in 2025

A negative gross profit means direct costs exceeded revenues in 2025, signaling broken unit economics. This is a structural issue: without meaningful pricing, revenue mix, or cost-of-delivery improvements, margin recovery will be difficult and long-term viability is impaired.

Volatile cash generation and renewed cash burn

Repeated free cash flow deficits and a return to negative operating cash flow in 2025 constrain reinvestment and increase reliance on external funding or equity. This recurring cash burn reduces runway and limits the company’s ability to execute a durable recovery or scale product investments.

Nepa AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nepa AB (publ) operates as a consumer research and analytics company in Sweden. The company provides customer experience, marketing analytics, brand and ad tracking, path to purchase, marketing mix modeling, and innovation acceleration solutions. The company operates its proprietary Consumer Science Platform, which collects, integrates, and analyzes data for insights and provides solutions to clients. It serves customers in retail, CPG/FMCG, media, telecommunications, and hospitality industries in Sweden and internationally. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Nepa AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating fundamentals are weakening: revenue has declined each year from 2022–2025 and profitability shifted from strong results (2020–2022) to sustained losses (2023–2025), including a particularly weak 2025 with negative gross profit. Positives include a debt-free balance sheet (lower financial risk), but equity has been eroding and cash flow has been volatile with renewed cash burn in 2025.

Income Statement

Revenue has been shrinking for several years (down each year from 2022 through 2025), signaling weakening demand or pricing pressure. Profitability has deteriorated sharply: the company moved from solid profitability in 2020–2022 to losses in 2023–2025, culminating in a very weak 2025 with negative gross profit and a sizable net loss. The main strength is that the business previously demonstrated strong margins and earnings power (2021–2022), but the more recent trajectory is clearly negative and raises questions about cost structure and operating leverage.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively financed with no debt across all reported years, which materially lowers financial risk and provides flexibility. However, the equity base has been eroding since 2022, consistent with ongoing losses, and total assets have also declined, suggesting a smaller operating footprint and potentially reduced capacity to absorb further setbacks. Overall, low leverage is a key positive, but weakening equity is the primary concern.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has become less reliable. After strong cash flow in 2020 and positive free cash flow in 2021 and 2024, free cash flow was negative in 2022, 2023, and again in 2025, with 2025 showing negative operating cash flow as well. A positive offset is that 2024 produced positive operating and free cash flow despite a small net loss, but the swing back to cash burn in 2025 highlights volatility and execution risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	222.60M	268.47M	293.08M	312.14M	295.46M
Gross Profit	-26.42M	203.99M	241.36M	263.24M	242.17M
EBITDA	-12.30M	17.02M	-15.52M	22.05M	41.86M
Net Income	-34.04M	-2.08M	-14.39M	17.49M	38.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	98.46M	157.64M	179.19M	211.12M	196.71M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.51M	41.07M	38.38M	63.83M	85.07M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	64.85M	83.34M	92.71M	101.43M	93.92M
Stockholders Equity	33.61M	74.30M	86.48M	109.69M	102.80M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-13.71M	12.43M	-15.77M	-11.49M	14.67M
Operating Cash Flow	-13.71M	15.26M	6.09M	15.90M	26.14M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.18M	-2.89M	-21.87M	-27.47M	-10.59M
Financing Cash Flow	-9.67M	-9.67M	-9.67M	-9.67M	0.00

Nepa AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BYGGP	72 Outperform	kr1.97B	15.63	―	1.24%	4.25%	127.31%
SBOK	64 Neutral	kr263.85M	9.52	―	4.51%	12.32%	1.07%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$13.29B	17.42	10.03%	0.93%	7.13%	-12.93%
NEPA	53 Neutral	kr147.04M	-4.32	―	8.09%	―	―
DRIL	53 Neutral	kr173.94M	3,900.00	―	6.35%	-4.44%	-68.88%
RAKE	47 Neutral	kr73.90M	-0.13	―	―	-47.47%	-524.00%
SCOUT	43 Neutral	kr25.90M	-2.59	―	―	―	―