Nelly Group AB (NELLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr1.63B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 120.69K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 12.45%
• EPS Growth: 118.98%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 145
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 1.94
• Shares Outstanding: 30,074,076
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 137,838
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 120,685
• PEG Ratio: 0.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.58
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.11
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr1.39B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: kr61.00 ▼(-46.11% Downside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/12/26

The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (profitability and positive cash generation), tempered by revenue volatility, a 2025 free-cash-flow decline, and mixed technical signals. Valuation appears reasonable with a mid-teens P/E, but lacks dividend data to strengthen the case.

Positive Factors

Profitability Recovery

The company moved from loss-making years into materially improved gross and net margins in 2024–2025. Sustained mid-50s gross margins and positive net margin demonstrate stronger unit economics and pricing/assortment leverage, improving long-term earnings durability if top-line holds.

Positive Cash Generation

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow across 2024–2025 indicates the business can convert profits into liquidity. Durable cash generation supports reinvestment in private-label sourcing, marketing and fulfillment, and reduces reliance on external financing over the medium term.

Improved Leverage

A notable reduction in debt-to-equity strengthens the balance sheet and decreases refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. Lower leverage provides more strategic flexibility for inventory investment, marketing spend, or organic expansion without immediate capital raises.

Negative Factors

Revenue Volatility

Historic swings in revenue weaken predictability of earnings and strain retail operating leverage. If top-line growth is uneven, margins and cash conversion can reverse quickly in weaker cycles, making current profitability less battle-tested across economic or demand downturns.

Free Cash Flow Decline

A meaningful decline in free cash flow in 2025 reduces internal funding capacity for inventory, marketing and product investment and increases dependence on financing if the trend persists. For a retailer, FCF swings can reflect working-capital stress and limit reinvestment optionality.

Historical Leverage Risk

Prior periods with debt above equity indicate limited historical cushion and heightened refinancing risk. Even with recent improvement, a still-nontrivial debt load leaves less room for error if margins or sales soften, making capital structure a structural vulnerability for a retailer.

Nelly Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nelly Group AB (publ) operates as a fashion company in Sweden, rest of Nordics, Germany, and the Netherlands. It offers fashion and beauty products, and accessories for young women under the Nelly brand. Nelly Group AB (publ) sells and markets its products online through Nelly.com and NLYman.com. The company was formerly known as Qliro Group AB (publ) and changed its name to Nelly Group AB (publ) in November 2020. Nelly Group AB (publ) was incorporated in 1936 and is headquartered in Borås, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Nelly Group AB makes money primarily by selling products through its e-commerce platform. Its main revenue stream is net sales from merchandise (e.g., apparel, shoes, accessories, and beauty products) purchased by customers online. The company earns gross profit on these sales through the difference between (a) the retail price charged to customers and (b) its cost of goods sold, which includes the purchase/manufacturing cost of inventory and is influenced by product mix (third-party brands vs. private label), pricing, promotions, and discounting. A meaningful contributor to profitability can be private-label products, where the company controls design/sourcing and typically retains more margin than on resold third-party brands. Revenue is also affected by shipping/handling fees charged to customers where applicable, while costs include logistics/fulfillment, payment processing, returns handling (which is significant in online fashion), customer service, and marketing spend used to drive traffic and conversion. Specific significant partnerships or other distinct revenue streams beyond product sales are null.

Nelly Group AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Turnaround is evident with materially improved profitability and positive operating/free cash flow in 2024–2025. Offsetting this, revenue has been volatile and free cash flow declined meaningfully in 2025; leverage improved in 2025 but remains a watch-out for a retailer.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved materially versus the loss-making 2020–2022 period. 2024 delivered solid margins (about 53% gross margin and ~7.6% net margin) and 2025 continued the upswing with higher revenue and materially higher EBIT/EBITDA and net income. The key weakness is top-line volatility: revenue declined sharply in 2023 and is only back to modest growth in 2024–2025, which makes the current earnings level somewhat less “battle-tested” across cycles.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has been a meaningful risk historically (debt higher than equity in 2021–2024), but the balance sheet improved notably in 2025 as equity expanded while debt rose only modestly—bringing debt-to-equity down from ~1.10 (2024) to roughly ~0.71 (2025, based on provided totals). Total assets have grown as well. The main watch-outs are the still-nontrivial debt load for a retailer and the fact that leverage was elevated in prior years, implying less room for error if profitability softens.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and supports earnings quality: operating cash flow and free cash flow were both positive in 2024–2025, with 2024 free cash flow fully matching net income (per provided data). However, free cash flow declined meaningfully in 2025 (negative growth rate provided) and cash flow performance has been inconsistent historically, including negative operating and free cash flow in 2020 and 2022. Overall, the business is generating cash now, but the durability of that cash conversion needs monitoring.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.26B	1.09B	1.06B	1.30B	1.43B
Gross Profit	686.00M	581.40M	504.20M	566.30M	638.80M
EBITDA	225.30M	145.60M	63.60M	-22.40M	-29.10M
Net Income	168.50M	83.40M	-1.50M	-71.70M	-47.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	989.70M	867.80M	799.80M	837.20M	899.90M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	253.80M	196.90M	151.10M	96.80M	197.50M
Total Debt	287.10M	260.40M	283.60M	294.60M	316.40M
Total Liabilities	583.30M	630.70M	621.20M	703.60M	695.50M
Stockholders Equity	406.40M	237.10M	178.60M	133.60M	204.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	91.00M	154.50M	36.40M	-75.90M	-4.30M
Operating Cash Flow	123.10M	154.50M	59.30M	-64.80M	18.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-32.10M	-22.40M	-22.90M	-11.10M	-22.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-34.10M	-56.40M	17.80M	-25.00M	-29.20M

Nelly Group AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 113.20
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:NELLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 113.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.45, below the 50-day MA of 116.38, and above the 200-day MA of 87.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -18.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 5.61 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 0.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:NELLY.

Nelly Group AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BOKUS	67 Neutral	kr1.13B	14.48	―	4.49%	9.46%	59.55%
NELLY	64 Neutral	kr1.63B	13.97	51.02%	―	12.45%	118.98%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CDON	56 Neutral	kr756.65M	-12.12	―	―	―	―
OBAB	49 Neutral	kr320.03M	-37.08	―	―	27.27%	-1165.24%
PIERCE	46 Neutral	kr684.21M	39.14	-0.15%	―	15.59%	16.67%
BBROOM	42 Neutral	kr64.67M	-3.47	―	―	―	―

Nelly Group AB Corporate Events

Nelly Group Names Former NetOnNet CEO Josefin Dalum as New CFO

Nelly Group AB, the Nasdaq Stockholm-listed online fashion retailer targeting young women in the Nordic region, continues to build on its mix of proprietary NELLY products and external brands, leveraging both e-commerce and a growing physical footprint to reinforce its market position. The company, formerly Qliro Group, has expanded beyond its original online model with flagship stores in central Stockholm and on Copenhagen’s Strøget, reflecting its ambition to deepen engagement with its one million-strong customer base.

The group has appointed former NetOnNet chief executive and ex-CFO Josefin Dalum as its new chief financial officer, succeeding Niklas Lingblom, who is leaving to pursue opportunities outside the organisation but will stay on for several weeks to ensure a smooth transition. Dalum’s extensive background in profitability-focused strategic initiatives and senior finance roles is expected to strengthen Nelly’s financial leadership and support its ongoing development, while management credits Lingblom with stabilising key processes and building a strong finance team during his tenure.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NELLY) stock is a Buy with a SEK141.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nelly Group AB stock, see the SE:NELLY Stock Forecast page.

Nelly Group Delivers Strong 2025 Growth and Higher Profit Margins

Nelly Group AB, an online fashion retailer, reported strong growth in 2025 as it continued to expand its e-commerce offering in the competitive digital apparel market. The company’s business model relies on driving higher sales volumes while defending margins and maintaining a solid liquidity position.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Nelly Group increased net revenue by 16.4% to SEK 370.5 million, lifting the gross margin to 54.0% and operating margin to 12.9%. For the full year, revenue rose 15.5% to SEK 1,263.6 million and operating profit nearly doubled, while higher earnings and a cash balance of SEK 253.8 million with unused credit facilities underscore improved profitability and financial strength, with no material events affecting the period.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NELLY) stock is a Buy with a SEK146.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nelly Group AB stock, see the SE:NELLY Stock Forecast page.

Nelly Group Sets Date for Year-End 2025 Report and Investor Webcast

Nelly Group AB has announced it will publish its year-end and fourth-quarter 2025 report on 10 February, followed by an English-language webcast and conference call for analysts, investors and media. The presentation, hosted by CEO Helena Karlinder-Östlundh and CFO Niklas Lingblom, will allow only written questions submitted via an online link before or during the broadcast, underscoring the company’s structured approach to investor communication ahead of the key earnings release.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NELLY) stock is a Buy with a SEK124.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nelly Group AB stock, see the SE:NELLY Stock Forecast page.

Nelly Group Reshapes Nomination Committee Ahead of 2026 AGM

Nelly Group AB has announced a change to its Nomination Committee ahead of the 2026 Annual General Meeting, with Frank Larsson of Handelsbanken Fonder AB joining as a new member. He replaces Mandatum Life Insurance Company’s representative Alexander Antas, following Mandatum’s divestment of its shareholding in the company, leaving the three-member committee composed of Victor Mellgren of Rite Ventures (who remains chair), Stefan Palm of ettfemsju själ AB, and Larsson. The adjustment underscores the ongoing influence of major shareholders in shaping Nelly’s governance, as the refreshed Nomination Committee will be responsible for preparing proposals on the board and other key AGM decisions before the meeting scheduled in Stockholm on 18 May 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NELLY) stock is a Buy with a SEK103.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nelly Group AB stock, see the SE:NELLY Stock Forecast page.