Nelly Group AB (NELLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr3.84B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 120.69K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.74
• Revenue Growth: 12.45%
• EPS Growth: 118.98%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 145
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 1.94
• Shares Outstanding: 30,074,076
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 137,838
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 120,685
• PEG Ratio: 0.19
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.58
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.11
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr1.39B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: kr141.00 ▲(24.56% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by the improving financial performance (profitability turnaround and positive cash generation) and strong technical uptrend (price above key moving averages with positive momentum). These positives are tempered by only moderate valuation (P/E ~22.8 with no dividend) and business risks from historical revenue volatility and a meaningful 2025 free-cash-flow decline.

Positive Factors

Profitability turnaround

Nelly moved from multi-year losses (2020–2022) to sustained profitability in 2024–2025, with materially improved gross and net margins. Durable margin expansion strengthens earnings quality, funds reinvestment in marketing/assortment, and reduces solvency risk versus loss-making peers.

Positive cash generation

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow across 2024–2025 supports cash-funded working capital and reduces reliance on external financing. Reliable cash generation improves the company's ability to invest in inventory, tech and marketing and provides a buffer through retail seasonality.

Stronger balance sheet in 2025

A lower debt-to-equity ratio and expanding equity in 2025 materially reduce financial strain versus prior years. Improved capitalization increases strategic flexibility for inventory and marketing spend, lowering default risk and giving management more room to pursue growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

Top-line volatility

Significant swings in revenue, including a sharp 2023 drop and only modest recovery, indicate that demand and assortment execution are not yet fully stable. Persistent top-line variability undermines margin durability and makes future cash flows and investment paybacks harder to predict.

Inconsistent free cash flow history

Although recent years show positive cash flow, the meaningful FCF drop in 2025 and past negative years reveal unstable cash conversion. This inconsistency limits confidence in ongoing self-funded growth and raises risk around funding inventory spikes, marketing cycles, or absorbing demand shocks.

Residual leverage risk

Even with a better 2025 ratio, historical periods of debt exceeding equity show limited headroom. For a fashion retailer with seasonal cash needs and return risk, remaining leverage can constrain strategic moves and heighten vulnerability if sales or margins deteriorate.

Nelly Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nelly Group AB (publ) operates as a fashion company in Sweden, rest of Nordics, Germany, and the Netherlands. It offers fashion and beauty products, and accessories for young women under the Nelly brand. Nelly Group AB (publ) sells and markets its products online through Nelly.com and NLYman.com. The company was formerly known as Qliro Group AB (publ) and changed its name to Nelly Group AB (publ) in November 2020. Nelly Group AB (publ) was incorporated in 1936 and is headquartered in Borås, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Nelly Group AB generates revenue through its online retail operations, primarily by selling women's fashion products directly to consumers via its e-commerce platform. The company employs a direct-to-consumer model, which allows it to capture higher margins by eliminating intermediaries. Key revenue streams include sales from its proprietary clothing lines, as well as partnerships with various well-known fashion brands that allow for a broader product offering. Seasonal promotions, loyalty programs, and targeted marketing strategies also contribute to driving sales. Additionally, Nelly may benefit from affiliate partnerships and collaborations that enhance brand visibility and customer acquisition, further bolstering its earnings.

Nelly Group AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials reflect a clear turnaround with improved profitability and positive operating/free cash flow in 2024–2025. Offsetting this, revenue has been volatile (sharp 2023 decline with only modest growth returning) and free cash flow dropped meaningfully in 2025, while leverage remains nontrivial despite improvement in 2025.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved materially versus the loss-making 2020–2022 period. 2024 delivered solid margins (about 53% gross margin and ~7.6% net margin) and 2025 continued the upswing with higher revenue and materially higher EBIT/EBITDA and net income. The key weakness is top-line volatility: revenue declined sharply in 2023 and is only back to modest growth in 2024–2025, which makes the current earnings level somewhat less “battle-tested” across cycles.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has been a meaningful risk historically (debt higher than equity in 2021–2024), but the balance sheet improved notably in 2025 as equity expanded while debt rose only modestly—bringing debt-to-equity down from ~1.10 (2024) to roughly ~0.71 (2025, based on provided totals). Total assets have grown as well. The main watch-outs are the still-nontrivial debt load for a retailer and the fact that leverage was elevated in prior years, implying less room for error if profitability softens.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive and supports earnings quality: operating cash flow and free cash flow were both positive in 2024–2025, with 2024 free cash flow fully matching net income (per provided data). However, free cash flow declined meaningfully in 2025 (negative growth rate provided) and cash flow performance has been inconsistent historically, including negative operating and free cash flow in 2020 and 2022. Overall, the business is generating cash now, but the durability of that cash conversion needs monitoring.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.26B	1.09B	1.06B	1.30B	1.43B
Gross Profit	686.00M	581.40M	504.20M	566.30M	638.80M
EBITDA	225.30M	145.60M	63.60M	-22.40M	-29.10M
Net Income	168.50M	83.40M	-1.50M	-71.70M	-47.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	989.70M	867.80M	799.80M	837.20M	899.90M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	253.80M	196.90M	151.10M	96.80M	197.50M
Total Debt	287.10M	260.40M	283.60M	294.60M	316.40M
Total Liabilities	583.30M	630.70M	621.20M	703.60M	695.50M
Stockholders Equity	406.40M	237.10M	178.60M	133.60M	204.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	91.00M	154.50M	36.40M	-75.90M	-4.30M
Operating Cash Flow	123.10M	154.50M	59.30M	-64.80M	18.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-32.10M	-22.40M	-22.90M	-11.10M	-22.90M
Financing Cash Flow	-34.10M	-56.40M	17.80M	-25.00M	-29.20M

Nelly Group AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 113.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:NELLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 113.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 127.92, below the 50-day MA of 121.55, and above the 200-day MA of 84.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.75 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:NELLY.

Nelly Group AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NELLY	71 Outperform	kr3.84B	13.97	51.02%	―	12.45%	118.98%
BOKUS	67 Neutral	kr1.11B	14.48	―	4.49%	9.46%	59.55%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CDON	56 Neutral	kr788.18M	-12.12	―	―	―	―
OBAB	49 Neutral	kr338.02M	-37.08	―	―	27.27%	-1165.24%
PIERCE	46 Neutral	kr719.81M	―	-1.41%	―	15.59%	16.67%
BBROOM	42 Neutral	kr70.58M	-3.47	―	―	―	―

Nelly Group AB Corporate Events

Nelly Group Delivers Strong 2025 Growth and Higher Profit Margins

Nelly Group AB, an online fashion retailer, reported strong growth in 2025 as it continued to expand its e-commerce offering in the competitive digital apparel market. The company’s business model relies on driving higher sales volumes while defending margins and maintaining a solid liquidity position.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Nelly Group increased net revenue by 16.4% to SEK 370.5 million, lifting the gross margin to 54.0% and operating margin to 12.9%. For the full year, revenue rose 15.5% to SEK 1,263.6 million and operating profit nearly doubled, while higher earnings and a cash balance of SEK 253.8 million with unused credit facilities underscore improved profitability and financial strength, with no material events affecting the period.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NELLY) stock is a Buy with a SEK146.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nelly Group AB stock, see the SE:NELLY Stock Forecast page.

Nelly Group Sets Date for Year-End 2025 Report and Investor Webcast

Nelly Group AB has announced it will publish its year-end and fourth-quarter 2025 report on 10 February, followed by an English-language webcast and conference call for analysts, investors and media. The presentation, hosted by CEO Helena Karlinder-Östlundh and CFO Niklas Lingblom, will allow only written questions submitted via an online link before or during the broadcast, underscoring the company’s structured approach to investor communication ahead of the key earnings release.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NELLY) stock is a Buy with a SEK124.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nelly Group AB stock, see the SE:NELLY Stock Forecast page.

Nelly Group Reshapes Nomination Committee Ahead of 2026 AGM

Nelly Group AB has announced a change to its Nomination Committee ahead of the 2026 Annual General Meeting, with Frank Larsson of Handelsbanken Fonder AB joining as a new member. He replaces Mandatum Life Insurance Company’s representative Alexander Antas, following Mandatum’s divestment of its shareholding in the company, leaving the three-member committee composed of Victor Mellgren of Rite Ventures (who remains chair), Stefan Palm of ettfemsju själ AB, and Larsson. The adjustment underscores the ongoing influence of major shareholders in shaping Nelly’s governance, as the refreshed Nomination Committee will be responsible for preparing proposals on the board and other key AGM decisions before the meeting scheduled in Stockholm on 18 May 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:NELLY) stock is a Buy with a SEK103.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nelly Group AB stock, see the SE:NELLY Stock Forecast page.