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NCC AB (SE:NCC.B)
:NCC.B

NCC AB (NCC.B) AI Stock Analysis

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SE:NCC.B

NCC AB

(NCC.B)

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Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
kr233.00
▲(4.77% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/07/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile 2025 profitability and a sharp step-down in cash flow versus 2024, despite improving leverage. Technically, the stock has a supportive uptrend with neutral momentum, but valuation is a notable risk due to the very high P/E, only partly balanced by the dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improving leverage and balance-sheet flexibility
Declining debt-to-equity to ~0.49 by 2025 provides persistent financial flexibility in a cyclical construction industry. A stronger balance sheet helps NCC absorb project timing swings, access financing on reasonable terms, and pursue selective development or bidding without immediate liquidity strain.
Diversified revenue streams across construction and services
NCC's mix of contract construction, residential/commercial development, leasing and facility management delivers both project-based and recurring revenues. This structural diversification reduces reliance on any single segment, supports steadier cash flows across cycles, and leverages long-term demand for sustainable building solutions.
Proven cash-generation capacity in stronger years
While volatile, NCC has demonstrated the ability to generate substantial operating and free cash flow in stronger years and typically cover net income. This recurring capacity in good cycles supports dividends, debt servicing and reinvestment, providing a durable source of internal funding when market conditions are favorable.
Negative Factors
2025 revenue decline and sharply reduced profitability
A 7.3% revenue decline and net margin near 0.25% in 2025 reflect material deterioration in top-line and bottom-line performance. Persistently weak revenue and near-zero margins curtail the company's ability to absorb cost overruns, reduce reinvestment capacity, and increase the structural risk of loss on fixed-price projects over the medium term.
Material free-cash-flow volatility and working-capital sensitivity
A ~63% drop in free cash flow from 2024 to 2025 and multi-year swings highlight sensitivity to project timing and working-capital movements. This unpredictability complicates capital allocation, may force reliance on external funding in weaker years, and raises the risk that short-term cash needs limit consistent investment or shareholder returns.
Structurally thin operating margins
Industry-typical gross margins of 7–10% and EBIT margins around 1.5–3.4% leave a narrow margin of safety for NCC. Small cost inflation, project delays or pricing pressure can quickly erode profitability, increasing earnings volatility and limiting the company's ability to build reserves or sustain returns across downturns.

NCC AB (NCC.B) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

NCC AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNCC AB (publ) operates as a construction and property development company in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland. It operates through five segments: NCC Infrastructure, NCC Building Sweden, NCC Building Nordic, NCC Industry, and NCC Property Development. The company builds residential buildings and offices, as well as constructs schools, hospitals, stores, and warehouses. It also designs and constructs infrastructure projects, such as tunnels, roads, and railways. In addition, the company produces stone materials and asphalt, as well as engages in the piling works and paving. Further, it develops and sells commercial properties in metropolitan regions in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland. The company was incorporated in 1935 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden.
How the Company Makes MoneyNCC AB generates revenue primarily through its construction and infrastructure projects, which include public and private sector contracts for building residential, commercial, and industrial properties, as well as civil engineering works like roads, bridges, and tunnels. The company's revenue model is based on project-based contracts, where it earns fees for services rendered, as well as profit margins on completed projects. Key revenue streams include construction contracts, property sales, and long-term maintenance agreements. Significant partnerships with governmental bodies and private developers enhance NCC's project pipeline, contributing to consistent earnings. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainable building practices and innovative construction techniques positions it favorably in a market increasingly prioritizing environmentally friendly solutions.

NCC AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials are mixed: the balance sheet is a relative strength (declining debt-to-equity to ~0.49 by 2025), but operating results are pressured. 2025 showed a revenue decline (-7.31%) and a sharp drop in profitability (net margin ~0.25%), while cash generation also fell materially versus 2024 (free cash flow down ~63%), highlighting execution and working-capital/project timing volatility.
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Revenue has been choppy, with growth in 2022–2024 but a notable decline in 2025 (-7.31%). Profitability is structurally thin (gross margin ~7–10% and EBIT margin mostly ~1.5–3.4%), which is typical for construction but leaves limited buffer for project issues. The key concern is earnings volatility: net profit fell sharply in 2025 (net margin ~0.25%) versus ~2.5–2.8% in 2023–2024, indicating weaker execution/pricing and/or higher costs despite similar revenue scale.
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Leverage appears manageable and improving: debt-to-equity declined from 1.15 (2020) to ~0.49 (2025), supporting financial flexibility in a cyclical industry. Equity has grown versus 2020 levels, helping absorb downturns. The main weakness is the sharp drop in return on equity in 2025 (~1.8%) after strong 2021–2024 levels, suggesting that recent profitability deterioration is the primary balance-sheet risk rather than excessive leverage.
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
Cash generation is uneven. 2024 was very strong (operating cash flow ~4.6B and free cash flow ~3.9B), but cash flow weakened materially in 2025 (operating cash flow ~1.9B; free cash flow ~1.5B; free cash flow down ~63%). Earlier years also show volatility, including negative free cash flow in 2022 and very low free cash flow in 2023. A positive is that free cash flow has generally covered net income well in most years, but the large year-to-year swings point to working-capital/project timing sensitivity.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue55.72B61.61B56.93B54.20B53.41B
Gross Profit5.47B5.28B4.69B4.00B4.52B
EBITDA2.11B3.36B3.08B2.60B3.11B
Net Income142.00M1.57B1.57B1.07B1.51B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets30.58B32.03B31.95B29.57B29.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.51B3.72B1.41B1.00B3.48B
Total Debt3.88B5.08B5.29B4.30B4.21B
Total Liabilities22.66B23.36B24.63B22.38B23.58B
Stockholders Equity7.92B8.66B7.32B7.18B5.84B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.54B3.94B99.00M-707.00M1.49B
Operating Cash Flow1.91B4.64B807.00M265.00M2.26B
Investing Cash Flow-761.00M-647.00M-446.00M-401.00M-363.00M
Financing Cash Flow-3.17B-1.79B-187.00M-1.90B-1.49B

NCC AB Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price222.40
Price Trends
50DMA
222.88
Negative
100DMA
217.27
Positive
200DMA
202.69
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.78
Positive
RSI
45.03
Neutral
STOCH
39.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:NCC.B, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 222.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 221.95, below the 50-day MA of 222.88, and above the 200-day MA of 202.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:NCC.B.

NCC AB Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
kr112.84B20.1210.45%3.18%6.02%26.26%
65
Neutral
kr51.33B23.4118.65%2.20%2.79%14.00%
61
Neutral
kr31.27B22.4110.55%3.26%-4.93%10.91%
59
Neutral
kr14.83B19.136.97%4.09%-3.73%-22.34%
57
Neutral
kr21.03B17.484.22%-4.21%10.63%
55
Neutral
$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
54
Neutral
kr19.35B151.8020.30%4.17%5.68%27.52%
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SE:NCC.B
NCC AB
211.40
29.40
16.16%
SE:PEAB.B
Peab AB
102.50
25.03
32.32%
SE:SKA.B
Skanska AB
266.10
30.71
13.05%
SE:SWEC.B
Sweco AB
142.40
-36.71
-20.50%
SE:AFRY
AFRY AB Class B
131.80
-42.80
-24.52%
SE:BRAV
Bravida Holding AB
102.80
15.42
17.64%

NCC AB Corporate Events

NCC Delivers Record Operating Earnings in Key Units but Books Property Impairment and Retains Industry Arm In-House
Feb 5, 2026

NCC reported strong underlying profitability for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, with operating profit before items affecting comparability at SEK 692 million in Q4 and SEK 1,938 million for the year, driven by record earnings in the Industry and Building Nordics business areas. Despite this, a substantial non-cash impairment from revised property value assessments pushed Q4 into a loss and sharply reduced full-year profit after tax, while orders and the order backlog declined slightly as the group remained selective on projects and exited certain contracts; the weaker commercial property market also weighed on property values. Following a strategic review, NCC decided to retain its highly profitable Industry business area and reorganize it as a standalone company under its existing leadership to enhance development and strategic flexibility, while the board proposed maintaining the ordinary dividend and an extra dividend at prior-year levels, signalling confidence in the balance sheet, cash generation and prospects for profitable growth in priority segments and potential property divestments.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:NCC.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK241.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCC AB stock, see the SE:NCC.B Stock Forecast page.

NCC Wins SEK 700 Million Contract for Major District Heating Expansion in Denmark
Jan 29, 2026

NCC has secured a turnkey contract worth approximately SEK 700 million from waste-to-energy company Vestforbrænding to expand the district heating network in Herlev, near Copenhagen, as part of Denmark’s largest civil engineering initiative. The project involves extensive civil engineering works and installation of roughly 46 kilometers of distribution piping to bring district heating to 1,700 households, forming one of six major contracts within the broader “Värmeplan 2030” program that will ultimately serve 39,000 homes. Scheduled to start in autumn 2026 and conclude by the end of 2030, the order will be booked in the NCC Infrastructure business area in the first quarter of 2026, strengthening NCC’s position in large-scale sustainable energy infrastructure and underlining its role in supporting the transition to lower-emission heating solutions in the Danish market.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:NCC.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK241.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCC AB stock, see the SE:NCC.B Stock Forecast page.

NCC Wins SEK 250 Million Office Project for BAE Systems Hägglunds in Örnsköldsvik
Jan 29, 2026

NCC has been awarded a new SEK 250 million contract to build modern office and workspaces for defense contractor BAE Systems Hägglunds in Örnsköldsvik, Sweden, expanding on an existing collaboration that already includes construction of production facilities at the Gullänget factory site. The 7,500-square-meter office building, to be delivered through a partnering model and completed in 2028, will feature flexible office solutions and enhanced work environments to support BAE Systems Hägglunds’ ongoing expansion and development, while reinforcing NCC’s position in high-security and office-building projects and contributing additional volume to its NCC Building Sweden business area from the first quarter of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:NCC.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK241.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCC AB stock, see the SE:NCC.B Stock Forecast page.

NCC Names Tomas Brannemo to Lead Infrastructure Division
Jan 27, 2026

NCC has appointed Tomas Brannemo as the new Head of its Infrastructure business area, effective March 2, 2026, when he will also join the Senior Management Team, succeeding longtime leader Kenneth Nilsson, who is retiring but will continue to oversee select projects for a period. Brannemo brings extensive international leadership experience from major industrial companies such as Johnson Controls, Xylem, Volvo Construction Equipment and ABB, and his recruitment underscores NCC’s ambition to build on the strong, profitable and market‑leading position of its infrastructure operations amid favorable market trends, signaling continuity and potential acceleration in the division’s development for customers, employees and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:NCC.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK241.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCC AB stock, see the SE:NCC.B Stock Forecast page.

NCC to Present Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results on 5 February 2026
Jan 23, 2026

NCC has announced that it will publish its interim report for the fourth quarter and full-year 2025 on Thursday, 5 February 2026, with the report to be made available on the company’s investor relations website early that morning. On the same day, CEO Tomas Carlsson and CFO Susanne Lithander will host an English-language webcast at 09:00 CET to present and discuss the financial results, underscoring NCC’s efforts to maintain transparency and active communication with investors, analysts and other stakeholders ahead of what may be a closely watched update for the Nordic construction group.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:NCC.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK241.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCC AB stock, see the SE:NCC.B Stock Forecast page.

NCC Wins SEK 170 Million Contract to Expand Police Offices in Linköping
Jan 23, 2026

NCC has secured a turnkey contract worth about SEK 170 million to expand a police office building in Linköping, Sweden, for property owner Intea Garnisonen AB and the Swedish Police Authority. The project, which will add a five-storey plus basement extension of roughly 5,800 square meters for office and related police operations, underscores NCC’s specialist capabilities in security-classified and high-safety construction. The order will be booked in the NCC Building Sweden business area in the first quarter of 2026, with construction starting in the same quarter and completion targeted for the second quarter of 2028, reinforcing NCC’s role in critical public-sector infrastructure and long-term security-focused property development.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:NCC.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK241.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCC AB stock, see the SE:NCC.B Stock Forecast page.

NCC takes SEK 1.4 billion property-related impairment but reports strong underlying Q4 performance
Jan 22, 2026

NCC is booking impairment charges of about SEK 1.4 billion, mainly tied to revised valuations of commercial property assets within its Property Development division and a review of tax assets in Norway, in response to a prolonged weak market for commercial real estate in Sweden and Finland. The non-cash charges, which do not affect ongoing contracting operations, cash flow or dividend capacity, will be recorded as items affecting comparability in the fourth quarter, where preliminary figures show net sales of SEK 15.9 billion and operating profit of SEK 692 million excluding these items, while strong order intake, a high level of early-phase collaboration agreements, and record earnings in the Industry division underscore management’s message that the group’s underlying performance, financial position and outlook for value creation remain solid despite the write-downs.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:NCC.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK241.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCC AB stock, see the SE:NCC.B Stock Forecast page.

NCC Wins SEK 175 Million Contract to Build Twin School in Surahammar
Jan 9, 2026

NCC has been commissioned by Surahammar Municipality in Sweden to build a new school using construction documents from a similar NCC-built school in Norrköping, enabling a turnkey project valued at approximately SEK 175 million. The twin-school concept, comprising two parallel buildings totaling 6,000 square meters and accommodating about 400 students from preschool to Year 6, aims to exploit modularity and repetition for cost-efficient, functional and sustainable design, while also including specialized classrooms, kitchen, canteen and an outdoor environment that encourages physical activity; production will start in the first quarter of 2026, with completion planned for the third quarter of 2027, strengthening NCC’s position in standardized yet customized educational facilities and showcasing its ability to reuse proven designs to reduce risk and improve quality for municipal clients.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:NCC.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK242.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCC AB stock, see the SE:NCC.B Stock Forecast page.

NCC Wins SEK 160 Million Asphalt Contracts for Southwestern Sweden Road Maintenance
Jan 7, 2026

NCC has secured three-year contracts worth approximately SEK 160 million from the Swedish Transport Administration to carry out road surface maintenance in southwestern Sweden, primarily in Halland county’s Halmstad district and parts of Västra Götaland, covering improvement works on about 200 kilometers of road. The asphalt will be produced at NCC’s Halmstad and Borås plants, with the projects emphasizing climate transparency through environmental product declarations (EPDs) for the asphalt used, and the agreements—booked in the NCC Industry business area in the first quarter of 2026—include an option for additional orders of up to 20 percent of the contract value, reinforcing NCC’s position in Nordic infrastructure maintenance and highlighting its focus on documented environmental performance.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:NCC.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK242.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCC AB stock, see the SE:NCC.B Stock Forecast page.

NCC Wins SEK 2.37 Billion Danish Office and Laboratory Contract
Dec 19, 2025

NCC has secured a major contract in Denmark to construct a combined office and laboratory facility covering approximately 42,000 square meters, in a project valued at about SEK 2.37 billion. The unnamed-customer project, due to start in early 2026 and complete in early 2029, will be booked in the fourth quarter of 2025 under the NCC Building Nordics business area, bolstering the company’s order book in its core Nordic market and underscoring its role in large-scale, technically complex non-residential construction, with potential long-term benefits for revenue visibility and capacity utilization in the region.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:NCC.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK242.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCC AB stock, see the SE:NCC.B Stock Forecast page.

NCC Appoints New CFO to Drive Future Growth
Dec 1, 2025

NCC has announced the appointment of Katarina Wilson as the new Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Susanne Lithander who will retire. Wilson, who brings extensive experience in financial control and business development from her previous roles at AcadeMedia, Husqvarna, Johnson & Johnson, and Electrolux, will join NCC’s Senior Management Team by June 1, 2026. This leadership change is expected to support NCC’s continued growth and strengthen its position as an industry leader.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:NCC.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK242.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCC AB stock, see the SE:NCC.B Stock Forecast page.

NCC to Build New Heleneholmsbadet Swim Center in Malmö
Nov 18, 2025

NCC AB has announced a partnership with Malmö Stadsfastigheter to construct the Heleneholmsbadet swim center in Malmö, with an order value of approximately SEK 475 million. The project, which is expected to accommodate 630,000 visitors annually, will feature a 50-meter pool, three smaller pools, and sustainable features like steel pools and rooftop solar panels. Construction is set to begin in early 2026 and finish by the end of 2028, further solidifying NCC’s position as a specialist in swim center construction in Sweden.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:NCC.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK244.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NCC AB stock, see the SE:NCC.B Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 07, 2026