Exsitec Holding AB (EXS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr1.95B
• Dividend Yield: 1.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.72K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: 10.92%
• EPS Growth: -2.56%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 580
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Information Technology Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.88
• Shares Outstanding: 13,429,856
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,160
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,716
• PEG Ratio: -1.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.33
• P/FCF Ratio: 33.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: kr136.00 ▼(-11.40% Downside)

The score is primarily supported by solid financial performance, especially strong free cash flow growth and healthy operating profitability. This is meaningfully offset by weak technicals (price below all major moving averages, negative MACD, and low RSI indicating bearish momentum), while valuation is neutral-to-slightly expensive with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Sustained, high free cash flow growth and strong cash conversion ratios provide durable funding for reinvestment, acquisitions, dividends or debt reduction. Reliable cash generation from services supports long-term financial flexibility and resilience through business cycles.

Operating profitability

Healthy operating and net margins in a services-led model indicate the company captures pricing and controls delivery costs. Margin sustainability enables continued investment in capabilities and cushions earnings against revenue volatility, supporting multi‑quarter stability.

Balanced leverage and ROE

Moderate leverage paired with solid ROE points to prudent capital structure and effective use of equity. This balance reduces refinancing risk, preserves financial optionality for strategic moves, and supports steady shareholder returns over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Modest revenue growth

Low single-digit revenue growth constrains the scale benefits of a consulting and software services model. Limited top-line momentum can cap operating leverage gains, restrict market share expansion, and make it harder to fund larger strategic initiatives without margin tradeoffs.

Gross margin pressure

A declining gross margin in a labor- and project-intensive business signals cost inflation or mix shifts. If persistent, this erodes the buffer that funds SG&A and R&D, forcing either price increases that risk competitiveness or margin compression that reduces free cash flow.

Mid‑market consulting competition

A consulting-led SMB focus exposes the firm to intense competition, pricing pressure, and client consolidation risks. Low switching costs and larger integrators targeting mid‑market clients can limit long-term margin expansion and require continual investment to differentiate services.

Exsitec Holding AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Exsitec Holding AB (publ) provides business support software and services in the Nordic region. It offers business system, invoice management, decision support, budget and forecast, CRM, e-commerce, warehouse optimization, storage system, purchasing process, project management, and service order and tailored business applications. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Linköping, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Exsitec generates revenue through a diversified model that includes software licensing, consulting services, and ongoing support and maintenance contracts. The company earns money by selling its proprietary software solutions such as ERP systems, which are tailored to meet the specific needs of various industries. Additionally, consulting services provided to businesses for implementation and optimization of these solutions represent a significant revenue stream. Exsitec also benefits from recurring revenue through maintenance and support contracts, providing ongoing updates and customer service. Strategic partnerships with technology providers and other businesses enhance its offerings and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

Exsitec Holding AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid overall fundamentals supported by strong cash flow (TTM free cash flow growth 22.81% and good cash conversion) and healthy profitability (TTM EBIT margin 11.42%, net margin 6.98%). Revenue growth is positive but modest (TTM 3.08%), and a slight decline in gross margin suggests some cost pressure.

Income Statement

Exsitec Holding AB shows a consistent revenue growth trajectory, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 3.08% and a strong historical growth pattern. The company maintains healthy profitability margins, with a TTM EBIT margin of 11.42% and a net profit margin of 6.98%. However, there is a slight decline in gross profit margin from previous years, indicating potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.75, indicating a balanced leverage position. The return on equity is stable at 12.95%, showcasing efficient use of equity capital. However, the equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, which limits a complete assessment of asset financing.

Cash Flow

Exsitec Holding AB demonstrates strong cash flow management with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 22.81% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 0.45, indicating good cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.72 further supports the company's ability to generate cash relative to its earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	882.47M	811.35M	751.27M	656.58M	536.04M	292.35M
Gross Profit	188.53M	231.94M	228.90M	179.64M	135.07M	80.27M
EBITDA	185.95M	150.70M	148.36M	120.35M	82.79M	53.95M
Net Income	73.51M	59.12M	70.82M	56.12M	-22.07M	2.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.09B	1.14B	805.24M	748.79M	551.12M	216.89M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	40.53M	26.49M	51.35M	46.26M	82.78M	59.18M
Total Debt	357.07M	389.66M	150.63M	163.74M	143.79M	2.43M
Total Liabilities	599.75M	679.29M	390.23M	384.98M	320.25M	69.21M
Stockholders Equity	488.56M	456.04M	415.01M	363.82M	230.86M	141.63M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	92.58M	56.50M	96.42M	84.26M	43.76M	47.84M
Operating Cash Flow	122.49M	89.29M	106.37M	90.10M	47.05M	49.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-166.85M	-285.14M	-17.63M	-84.53M	-314.48M	-1.16M
Financing Cash Flow	64.43M	170.93M	-82.52M	-43.65M	215.51M	6.36M

Exsitec Holding AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 153.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:EXS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 153.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 144.87, above the 50-day MA of 149.68, and above the 200-day MA of 138.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.95 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:EXS.

Exsitec Holding AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SOF.B	71 Outperform	kr1.12B	14.83	27.44%	6.29%	4.00%	-12.08%
PACT	67 Neutral	kr2.70B	17.15	14.35%	2.13%	-4.36%	-31.55%
EXS	64 Neutral	kr1.95B	22.75	15.90%	1.13%	10.92%	-2.56%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
KNOW	56 Neutral	kr3.16B	32.37	2.38%	2.03%	-9.85%	-38.24%
B3	55 Neutral	kr366.74M	133.14	1.19%	―	13.21%	-97.19%
DUST	50 Neutral	kr2.33B	-0.49	―	―	-5.00%	-1757.14%