Exsitec Holding AB (EXS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr1.61B
• Dividend Yield: 1.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.72K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: 10.92%
• EPS Growth: -2.56%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 580
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Information Technology Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.88
• Shares Outstanding: 13,429,856
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 9,160
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,716
• PEG Ratio: 0.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.04
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.30
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.94
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.14
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr965.33M

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: kr140.00 ▼(-8.79% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/05/26

The score is mainly supported by strong growth and cash generation, tempered by higher leverage and margin volatility. Technicals are a notable drag due to a sustained downtrend despite oversold readings. Valuation is moderate with a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue growth and improving net income

Consistent revenue expansion and a rebound in net income indicate durable demand for Exsitec's ERP/IT services among SMBs. A consulting-led delivery model and recurring support revenues make topline growth more predictable, supporting reinvestment and long-term client relationships.

Strong free cash flow generation

High and improving free cash flow that tracks net income enhances financial flexibility for capex, acquisitions, dividends, or deleveraging. Reliable FCF supports service-heavy business models where recurring contracts can fund growth without constant external financing.

Healthy shareholder returns and equity growth

A strong ROE and rising equity base signal efficient capital use and internal capital accumulation. This underpins sustainable investment in product and service capabilities and reduces reliance on external funding over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage

Materially higher debt-to-equity reduces financial flexibility and raises interest and refinancing risk. For a services firm with working-capital needs and margin swings, increased leverage heightens vulnerability to revenue slowdowns or higher funding costs over the medium term.

Gross-margin volatility

Sharp swings in gross margin suggest unstable pricing, cost mix, or project delivery efficiency. Persistent margin volatility undermines predictability of profits and cash flow, complicating budgeting, pricing strategy, and investor confidence in sustainable profitability.

Weak operating cash conversion

OCF covering less than net income signals that profits don't fully convert to cash due to receivables or timing. In conjunction with higher debt, this raises liquidity risk and could force reliance on credit lines or delay investments during tighter market conditions.

Exsitec Holding AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Exsitec Holding AB (publ) provides business support software and services in the Nordic region. It offers business system, invoice management, decision support, budget and forecast, CRM, e-commerce, warehouse optimization, storage system, purchasing process, project management, and service order and tailored business applications. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Linköping, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Exsitec generates revenue through a diversified model that includes software licensing, consulting services, and ongoing support and maintenance contracts. The company earns money by selling its proprietary software solutions such as ERP systems, which are tailored to meet the specific needs of various industries. Additionally, consulting services provided to businesses for implementation and optimization of these solutions represent a significant revenue stream. Exsitec also benefits from recurring revenue through maintenance and support contracts, providing ongoing updates and customer service. Strategic partnerships with technology providers and other businesses enhance its offerings and market reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

Exsitec Holding AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth and improving net income with high free cash flow in the latest year support the score. Offsetting this are sharp gross-margin volatility and meaningfully higher leverage (rising debt-to-equity), which increase risk if profitability normalizes. Operating cash flow coverage below 1.0 also points to uneven cash conversion.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly over time (2022–2025 annual growth rates remain positive, with a sharp step-up in 2025). Profitability is solid in the latest year with healthy operating and net margins, and net income improved versus 2024. The main weakness is margin volatility: gross margin fell sharply in 2025 versus prior years, even as earnings rose, which raises questions around cost mix and sustainability of recent profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company shows decent shareholder returns (latest return on equity is strong) and equity has grown over time. However, leverage has increased meaningfully: debt-to-equity rose from low-to-moderate levels in 2022–2023 to a higher level in 2024–2025, reducing balance-sheet flexibility and increasing sensitivity to business or funding shocks.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: free cash flow is high and improved materially in 2025 after a weaker 2024, and free cash flow is closely aligned with net income in the latest year. The key drawback is that operating cash flow coverage remains below 1.0 across the period (including 2025), suggesting working-capital or timing effects can weigh on cash conversion even when profits look strong.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	894.94M	811.35M	751.27M	656.58M	536.04M
Gross Profit	119.67M	231.94M	228.90M	179.64M	135.07M
EBITDA	190.65M	150.70M	148.36M	120.35M	82.79M
Net Income	85.88M	59.12M	70.82M	56.12M	-22.07M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.12B	1.14B	805.24M	748.79M	551.12M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	54.07M	26.49M	51.35M	46.26M	82.78M
Total Debt	404.22M	389.66M	150.63M	163.74M	143.79M
Total Liabilities	612.00M	679.29M	390.23M	384.98M	320.25M
Stockholders Equity	508.92M	456.04M	415.01M	363.82M	230.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	147.36M	56.50M	96.42M	84.26M	43.76M
Operating Cash Flow	152.73M	89.29M	106.37M	90.10M	47.05M
Investing Cash Flow	-25.06M	-285.14M	-17.63M	-84.53M	-314.48M
Financing Cash Flow	-91.63M	170.93M	-82.52M	-43.65M	215.51M

Exsitec Holding AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 153.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:EXS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 153.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 125.35, above the 50-day MA of 139.64, and above the 200-day MA of 139.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:EXS.

Exsitec Holding AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EXS	65 Neutral	kr1.61B	18.77	15.90%	1.13%	10.92%	-2.56%
PACT	62 Neutral	kr2.78B	22.41	14.35%	2.13%	-4.36%	-31.55%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
SOF.B	59 Neutral	kr1.13B	16.97	27.44%	6.29%	4.00%	-12.08%
KNOW	58 Neutral	kr3.09B	-10.79	2.38%	2.03%	-9.85%	-38.24%
DUST	50 Neutral	kr2.03B	-0.44	―	―	-5.00%	-1757.14%
B3	43 Neutral	kr320.73M	29.70	1.19%	―	13.21%	-97.19%