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Castellum AB (SE:CAST)
:CAST

Castellum AB (CAST) AI Stock Analysis

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SE:CAST

Castellum AB

(CAST)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
kr113.00
▼(-3.29% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:11/27/25
The overall stock score of 60 reflects Castellum AB's strong profitability and stable financial position, countered by declining revenue growth and moderate cash flow performance. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and valuation metrics suggest fair pricing but limited income potential. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data limits further insights.
Positive Factors
Consistent cash generation
Positive operating and free cash flow across recent years indicates the business converts rental and development proceeds into cash, supporting dividends, maintenance capex and debt servicing. Sustained cash generation reduces refinancing risk and smooths funding for development cycles.
Stable rental income from long-term leases
A business model centered on long-term commercial leases delivers predictable recurring revenue and reduces turnover-driven vacancy risk. This stability underpins valuation of assets, supports predictable cashflows for operations and debt, and is durable across 2-6 month horizons.
Strategic urban portfolio and sustainability focus
Concentration in major urban centers increases demand durability and tenant diversity, while sustainability credentials can attract premium tenants and lower vacancy. Combined development capability and urban footprint creates competitive advantage in securing long-term, higher-quality leases.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Debt roughly equal to equity and a year-over-year increase in leverage raise refinancing and valuation risk, especially for a developer. Higher leverage limits flexibility for new developments, amplifies earnings volatility from property revaluations, and stresses liquidity in downturns.
Sharp revenue contraction and earnings volatility
A dramatic revenue drop and swings from large loss to thinner profits signal earnings instability tied to development timing and disposals. This uneven operating performance undermines predictability of cashflows and makes planning capital allocation and dividend policy more challenging over the medium term.
Steep decline and lumpiness in free cash flow
Steep FCF declines and past negative cash events reflect lumpiness from development cycles and asset sales. Irregular FCF complicates reinvestment planning and heightens reliance on capital markets or asset disposals to fund growth and debt, increasing execution risk across cycles.

Castellum AB (CAST) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

Castellum AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCastellum is one of Sweden's largest listed real estate companies with a property value of SEK 98 billion. We are active in 17 Swedish growth regions as well as in Copenhagen and Helsinki. Every day, 250,000 people go to work in our premises. We develop flexible workplaces and logistics solutions in close proximity to city centers and with a lettable area of 4.3 million square meters. One of our sustainability goals is to be completely climate neutral by 2030. Castellum is the only Nordic real estate company selected by the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI). The Castellum share is listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm Large Cap.
How the Company Makes MoneyCastellum AB generates revenue primarily through the leasing of its commercial properties to a wide range of tenants, including businesses in various sectors. The company has a strong focus on long-term leases, which provide stable and predictable rental income. In addition to rental income, Castellum also earns money through property sales and development projects, where it creates value by enhancing or repurposing existing properties. Significant partnerships with local governments and businesses help to secure favorable development opportunities and can lead to financial incentives. Moreover, Castellum's commitment to sustainability often attracts tenants willing to pay a premium for green-certified buildings, further enhancing its revenue potential.

Castellum AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Castellum AB demonstrates strong profitability with healthy margins and a stable balance sheet. However, the company faces challenges with declining revenue growth and moderate cash flow performance. The low ROE and revenue contraction highlight areas for improvement.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Castellum AB's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 21.7%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains strong gross and EBIT margins at 67.95% and 58.05% respectively, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin is healthy at 27.44%, although it has decreased from the previous year. Overall, while profitability remains strong, the negative revenue growth trend poses a risk.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.76, which is reasonable for the industry. The return on equity is modest at 3.39%, suggesting limited profitability from shareholders' investments. The equity ratio stands at 43.55%, indicating a solid capital structure. While leverage is under control, the low ROE highlights potential inefficiencies in generating returns.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate of 5.66% in the TTM period, which is a positive sign. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.28, suggesting that cash generation from operations is lower relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.99, indicating effective cash conversion. Despite the positive free cash flow growth, the low operating cash flow coverage ratio could be a concern for liquidity.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue9.59B9.73B9.81B8.99B6.35B
Gross Profit6.52B6.67B6.57B5.76B4.32B
EBITDA3.52B6.49B-12.27B1.30B12.48B
Net Income938.00M2.36B-11.59B1.75B11.83B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets155.89B157.86B159.34B179.73B177.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments120.00M2.40B2.09B858.00M1.20B
Total Debt69.39B60.10B63.11B78.44B72.57B
Total Liabilities87.74B78.69B82.16B100.75B94.00B
Stockholders Equity68.15B79.17B77.18B78.98B82.94B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.98B4.20B4.72B5.13B-14.63B
Operating Cash Flow3.99B4.30B4.81B4.30B2.60B
Investing Cash Flow-5.23B46.00M800.00M-2.53B-13.97B
Financing Cash Flow-1.01B-4.07B-4.38B-2.16B12.40B

Castellum AB Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price116.85
Price Trends
50DMA
108.90
Positive
100DMA
107.93
Positive
200DMA
110.11
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.45
Negative
RSI
60.72
Neutral
STOCH
89.52
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:CAST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 116.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 111.42, above the 50-day MA of 108.90, and above the 200-day MA of 110.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:CAST.

Castellum AB Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
kr37.87B12.526.23%2.15%2.86%
67
Neutral
kr28.85B13.259.74%3.60%5.18%349.60%
63
Neutral
kr25.80B-73.910.76%2.39%-3.46%
62
Neutral
kr79.18B9.6710.31%7.72%
60
Neutral
kr55.54B63.054.49%1.77%-2.45%
55
Neutral
$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SE:CAST
Castellum AB
116.85
1.65
1.43%
SE:FABG
Fabege AB
82.00
-0.73
-0.88%
SE:BALD.B
Fastighets AB Balder
66.54
-8.46
-11.28%
SE:PNDX.B
Pandox AB
194.60
3.51
1.84%
SE:WIHL
Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB
93.85
-7.78
-7.65%

Castellum AB Corporate Events

Castellum Marks Tenth Straight Year in Global Sustainability Yearbook
Feb 24, 2026

Castellum has been included in The Sustainability Yearbook for the tenth consecutive year, ranking first in Europe and 14th globally in the Real Estate Management & Development category. The recognition underscores its position as one of only three Swedish companies honored this year and highlights its long-term integration of sustainability into its strategy and business model.

The Sustainability Yearbook, based on S&P Global’s Corporate Sustainability Assessment of 9,200 companies across 59 industries, selects only the top 15 percent in each sector as leaders in managing financially material ESG issues. Castellum’s repeated inclusion reinforces its status as a sustainability frontrunner in the real estate sector and may strengthen its appeal to investors seeking more sustainable and transparent property investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CAST) stock is a Sell with a SEK120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum AB stock, see the SE:CAST Stock Forecast page.

Castellum to Repurchase Up to SEK 3.4 Billion of Shares After Property Divestment
Feb 20, 2026

Castellum AB will launch a share buy-back programme of up to SEK 3.4 billion, following its recently announced divestment of properties worth SEK 5.6 billion. The board is using an existing mandate to repurchase up to 10 percent of shares, aiming to enhance long-term shareholder value while keeping the current loan-to-value ratio intact.

Management said the divestment supports the strategy to concentrate on assets that best drive the company’s long-term return on equity target and strengthens its financial position and flexibility. The buy-backs, to be executed on Nasdaq Stockholm in cash and in line with market rules until the 2026 AGM, are intended to adjust the capital structure, with ABG Sundal Collier appointed as advisor on the programme.

At the time of the announcement, Castellum had 492,601,452 issued shares and held 499,403 of its own shares. The initiative underscores a disciplined, return-focused capital allocation strategy amid current market conditions and the company’s valuation, signalling a prioritisation of shareholder returns over alternative uses of capital.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CAST) stock is a Sell with a SEK120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum AB stock, see the SE:CAST Stock Forecast page.

Castellum Sells SEK 5.6 Billion Public-Sector Property Portfolio to AP7
Feb 20, 2026

Castellum, a major Swedish commercial property owner and developer focused on growth cities, is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm Large Cap and holds a Green Equity Designation, underscoring its sustainability profile in the real estate sector. The company manages a portfolio worth approximately SEK 137 billion and is the only Swedish property company in the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices.

The company has agreed to sell nine fully let public-sector properties, primarily serving the judicial sector in several Swedish cities, to pension fund AP7 for an underlying property value of SEK 5.6 billion. The deal, which is expected to generate an estimated total earnings effect of about SEK 750 million and supports Castellum’s capital allocation target of a 10 percent return on equity, remains subject to regulatory and tenant approvals, with most assets scheduled to close on 29 April 2026 and the remainder later in the second or third quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CAST) stock is a Sell with a SEK120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum AB stock, see the SE:CAST Stock Forecast page.

Castellum Tightens Strategy as Property Values Weigh on 2025 Earnings
Feb 18, 2026

Castellum reported weaker full-year 2025 results, as income from property management fell and net profit dropped to SEK 938 million, driven by negative property value changes and slightly softer like-for-like net operating income. Despite signing more new leases by area, net leasing for the year was negative and the loan-to-value ratio edged up, while the company continued substantial net investments and improved energy performance across its portfolio.

In the fourth quarter, Castellum posted a small loss after tax as property values were written down, even though income from property management grew and interest coverage improved to 3.2 times. Management sharpened its focus on profitability and capital allocation through a head-office reorganisation and the sale of co-working unit United Spaces, and the board now plans share buybacks equal to a quarter of 2025 property management income instead of paying a cash dividend, signalling a shift toward capital returns and balance-sheet discipline.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CAST) stock is a Buy with a SEK135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum AB stock, see the SE:CAST Stock Forecast page.

Castellum Nomination Committee Backs Full Board Re-Election for 2026 AGM
Feb 13, 2026

Castellum’s Nomination Committee has proposed the re-election of all current board members, including Chairman Ralf Spann, Anna-Karin Celsing, Henrik Käll, Marita Loft, Leif Norburg, Knut Rost and Stefan Wallander, ahead of the company’s 2026 Annual General Meeting. The committee emphasises that all nominees are independent of the company and its executive management, with all except Spann also independent of major shareholders, and it represents about 36.6 percent of Castellum’s shares and votes, underscoring strong shareholder backing for continuity in governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CAST) stock is a Buy with a SEK135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum AB stock, see the SE:CAST Stock Forecast page.

Castellum Sets February Date for 2025 Year-End Results Presentation
Feb 4, 2026

Castellum AB will publish its year-end report for 2025 on 18 February at 8:00 a.m. CET and follow up with an English-language live presentation at 9:00 a.m. CET, led by CEO Pål Ahlsén and Acting CFO Christoffer Strömbäck. The company is providing access via webcast and teleconference, with a recording available afterward, signalling continued emphasis on transparent communication with investors, analysts and journalists as it reports on performance in a challenging commercial property market.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CAST) stock is a Buy with a SEK135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum AB stock, see the SE:CAST Stock Forecast page.

Castellum Secures Major 15-Year Pre-Lease for Infinity Project in Stockholm
Jan 30, 2026

Castellum has secured a 15-year lease for the entire 24,000-square-metre Infinity office property in Hagastaden, Stockholm, which is currently under construction and scheduled for completion by the end of 2027. The unnamed tenant, which has opted to remain confidential, holds a unilateral right until 1 June 2026 to scale back its commitment to half the space on a shorter five-year term, meaning the final scope of the lease will not be fully confirmed until that option period expires; nonetheless, the agreement marks a significant pre-letting for Castellum’s Sorbonne 1 project and supports the company’s growth and occupancy prospects in a key Stockholm development area.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CAST) stock is a Buy with a SEK135.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum AB stock, see the SE:CAST Stock Forecast page.

Castellum Named Among World’s 100 Most Sustainable Companies
Jan 21, 2026

Castellum has been ranked 56th in the 2026 Global 100 list of the world’s most sustainable companies, making it one of only two Swedish firms to appear in the index unveiled at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The recognition highlights the company’s integrated sustainability programme—spanning investments, project development, administration and financing—and supports its ambition to achieve climate neutrality across its value chain by 2040, reinforcing Castellum’s positioning as a leading sustainability-focused player in the global real estate market.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CAST) stock is a Hold with a SEK120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum AB stock, see the SE:CAST Stock Forecast page.

Castellum Offloads Seven Lower-Yield Properties for SEK 500 Million
Dec 23, 2025

Castellum has divested seven non-core properties in Sweden and Denmark for a total underlying value of SEK 500 million after determining they did not deliver sufficient returns to support its target of at least a 10% annual return on equity. Six assets, with a combined value of SEK 330 million, were transferred in the fourth quarter of 2025, while a seventh property worth SEK 170 million will be vacated in the first quarter of 2026; together, the mainly office, warehouse/light industrial and retail properties comprised 32,800 square metres with a 76% occupancy rate and a rental value of SEK 52 million, signalling an ongoing portfolio optimisation as Castellum reallocates capital from lower-yield assets to strengthen overall profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CAST) stock is a Hold with a SEK120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum AB stock, see the SE:CAST Stock Forecast page.

Castellum Wins Partial Bondholder Backing for EMTN Covenant Changes
Dec 22, 2025

Castellum AB has secured bondholder approval to amend the terms of several series of its outstanding EMTN bonds, introducing changes to the “cessation of business” event of default and adding a divestment-linked interest rate step-up mechanism for the 2026 NOK, 2028 NOK, 2029 NOK and 2030 euro notes, effective 22 December 2025. However, similar amendments for the 2026 and 2029 euro notes issued by Castellum AB and Castellum Helsinki Finance Holding Abp did not receive sufficient support, meaning those series will continue under their existing terms, leaving Castellum with a mixed outcome in its effort to standardise and recalibrate covenants and pricing triggers across its bond portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CAST) stock is a Hold with a SEK120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Castellum AB stock, see the SE:CAST Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 27, 2025