BioGaia AB (BIOG.B) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr11.59B
• Dividend Yield: 1.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 124.05K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: 7.88%
• EPS Growth: -6.35%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 224
• Sector: General
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 0.98
• Shares Outstanding: 98,497,170
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 90,103
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 124,054
• PEG Ratio: -6.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 8.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.98
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.46
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.05
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr1.64B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: kr113.00 ▲(7.01% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/18/26

The score is supported primarily by strong financial quality (consistent revenue growth and a very low-risk, near debt-free balance sheet). It is held back by weak technical momentum (negative MACD, below key moving averages) and a relatively high P/E that looks less compelling given recent margin compression and softer free cash flow.

Positive Factors

Consistent revenue growth

Multi-year revenue expansion demonstrates durable demand for BioGaia's probiotic products and successful commercial distribution. A steady top-line trend supports capacity to invest in R&D, partnerships and global expansion, reducing execution risk over the next several quarters.

High gross margins

Sustained gross margins near the mid-70% range indicate strong product economics and pricing power for its probiotic strains. High gross margins provide structural room to absorb SG&A or R&D increases and support long-term operating profitability even if unit costs rise.

Very conservative balance sheet

Negligible leverage and zero reported debt in 2025 materially lower financial risk and preserve strategic optionality. This balance sheet strength supports resilience in downturns, funds partnership investments or targeted M&A, and sustains dividend or buyback flexibility.

Negative Factors

Margin compression since 2022

A near 12-point drop in net margin over a three-year span signals rising cost pressures or increased spending intensity that erode earnings power. If structural, weaker margins limit retained earnings, constrain reinvestment and raise sensitivity to slower sales growth.

Weakened free cash flow / cash conversion pressure

Declining FCF and lower operating cash versus prior years reduce financial flexibility to fund growth or return capital. Persistent cash conversion deterioration can indicate working capital strain or higher capex and raises risk that reported earnings are less cash-backed.

Decline in shareholders' equity

A sizable reduction in equity over two years weakens the capital cushion and may reflect payouts, write-downs or accumulated deficits. Lower equity constrains balance-sheet capacity for larger investments or absorbing shocks, increasing dependence on operational cash flow.

BioGaia AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BioGaia AB (publ) develops, markets, and sells probiotic products with documented health benefits worldwide. It operates through three segments: Pediatrics, Adult Health, and Other. The Pediatrics segment offers drops, oral rehydration solutions, and gut health tablets, as well as cultures that are used as an ingredient in infant formula. The Adult Health segment provides gut health tablets and oral health lozenges products, as well as cultures, which are used as an ingredient in a licensee's dairy product. The Other segment provides packaging solutions. The company offers its products in the areas of infantile colic and digestive health in children; antibiotic-associated and acute diarrhoea; gingivitis; periodontal disease; general health; Helicobacter pylori–the gastric ulcer bacterium; and low bone density. It offers its products under the BioGaia brand name. BioGaia AB (publ) was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

BioGaia generates revenue through the sale of its probiotic products, which include dietary supplements and medical foods. The company has established a diverse revenue model that includes direct sales to consumers, partnerships with healthcare providers, and collaborations with major pharmaceutical and food companies for product development and distribution. Key revenue streams come from both prescription and over-the-counter probiotic products, with significant contributions from international markets. Additionally, BioGaia benefits from licensing agreements and royalties from its probiotic strains, which are utilized by partner companies in their own product lines, further enhancing its earnings potential.

BioGaia AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and high gross margins support a solid operating profile, and the balance sheet is very conservative with essentially no leverage. Offsetting this, profitability has compressed since 2022 and both net income and free cash flow have softened recently despite higher sales, alongside a notable decline in equity by 2025.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown consistently over the last five years (from ~0.75B in 2020 to ~1.54B in 2025), supporting a solid long-term growth profile. Profitability is strong with high gross margins (~72–74%) and healthy operating profitability, though margins have compressed since 2022 (net margin down from ~34% in 2022 to ~22% in 2025) and net income has declined modestly from 2022–2025 despite higher sales—suggesting higher costs and/or increased spending intensity.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is very conservative with essentially no leverage (debt-to-equity near zero across the period, and zero debt in 2025), which reduces financial risk and adds flexibility. Equity remains sizable relative to assets, though total equity has trended down since 2023 (from ~2.03B to ~1.31B in 2025), which is a notable negative trajectory even with strong profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid: operating cash flow consistently exceeds reported earnings (about 1.5–2.2x across the years), and free cash flow tracks net income closely (roughly ~0.89–0.99x), indicating good earnings quality. However, free cash flow has weakened recently (down ~6% in 2025 and slightly down in 2024), and operating/free cash flow are both lower in 2025 versus 2023–2024 despite higher revenue, pointing to some cash conversion pressure.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.54B	1.42B	1.30B	1.10B	785.11M
Gross Profit	1.13B	1.03B	950.19M	801.93M	582.95M
EBITDA	454.33M	539.44M	494.92M	476.89M	276.86M
Net Income	332.76M	351.39M	365.35M	373.77M	196.27M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.60B	2.03B	2.33B	2.21B	2.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	801.31M	1.22B	1.54B	1.49B	1.48B
Total Debt	0.00	7.10M	8.80M	20.09M	10.40M
Total Liabilities	283.59M	310.07M	302.85M	241.55M	250.69M
Stockholders Equity	1.31B	1.72B	2.03B	1.97B	1.88B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	302.97M	359.06M	377.25M	301.03M	215.50M
Operating Cash Flow	306.57M	373.22M	425.96M	318.94M	221.88M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.34M	-14.07M	-50.94M	-18.14M	-126.97M
Financing Cash Flow	-709.87M	-689.72M	-308.42M	-313.59M	-81.85M

BioGaia AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 105.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:BIOG.B, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 105.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 108.19, below the 50-day MA of 108.99, and above the 200-day MA of 103.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:BIOG.B.

BioGaia AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BIOG.B	68 Neutral	kr11.59B	32.29	24.35%	1.95%	7.88%	-6.35%
NANEXA	56 Neutral	kr632.01M	-60.92	-48.65%	―	-60.33%	58.04%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
SECARE	54 Neutral	kr3.99B	93.57	0.88%	0.66%	6.65%	1.41%
ENZY	45 Neutral	kr500.03M	-8.89	―	―	19.17%	24.53%
ORX	44 Neutral	kr822.95M	-8.03	―	―	-8.79%	-91.09%
ALZCUR	44 Neutral	kr214.89M	-4.22	-90.66%	―	―	15.74%

BioGaia AB Corporate Events

BioGaia’s Q4 Surge Offsets Margin Pressure as 2025 Profit Dips and Dividend Is Cut

BioGaia reported a strong fourth quarter of 2025, with net sales rising 21% to SEK 440.6 million and organic growth of 32%, driven by robust gains in both Pediatrics and Adult Health. Operating profit increased 17% to SEK 121 million, profit after tax climbed 21%, and key R&D milestones included publication of results on its patented L. reuteri BG-R46 strain and a discovery, together with the University of Gothenburg, linking gut bacteria to serotonin production.

For full-year 2025, net sales grew 8% to SEK 1,538.2 million with 14% organic growth, but operating profit slipped 3% and the operating margin narrowed to 27% as higher operating expenses weighed on earnings. Despite lower full-year profit and a reduced total dividend proposal of SEK 4.00 per share, BioGaia’s strong Q4 performance exceeded market expectations and underscores continued demand for its probiotic portfolio, while the board also earmarked funds for charitable donations, including to a foundation aimed at preventing antibiotic resistance.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:BIOG.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BioGaia AB stock, see the SE:BIOG.B Stock Forecast page.

BioGaia Flags Strong Fourth-Quarter Sales and Profit Beat

BioGaia said its preliminary results for the fourth quarter of 2025 will exceed market expectations, with sales estimated at SEK 441 million, up 21% year-on-year (32% excluding currency effects), partly boosted by around SEK 35 million in quarterly order variations. Operating profit is expected to rise to SEK 121 million from SEK 103 million, corresponding to an operating margin of 27%, underlining solid profitability ahead of the full interim report due on 12 February 2026, and reinforcing the company’s position in the global probiotics market.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:BIOG.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BioGaia AB stock, see the SE:BIOG.B Stock Forecast page.

BioGaia Sets February 12 Date for Q4 2025 Results and Analyst Audiocast

BioGaia will publish its financial report for the fourth quarter of 2025 on 12 February 2026 at around 8:00 a.m. CET, followed by a live audiocast at 9:30 a.m. CET where CEO Theresa Agnew and CFO Alexander Kotsinas will present the results and take questions from media and analysts. The report, including detailed financial tables, will be made available on the company’s website after the press release is issued, underscoring BioGaia’s emphasis on transparent communication with investors and other stakeholders regarding its financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:BIOG.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BioGaia AB stock, see the SE:BIOG.B Stock Forecast page.