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Avanza Bank Holding AB (SE:AZA)
:AZA

Avanza Bank Holding AB (AZA) AI Stock Analysis

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SE:AZA

Avanza Bank Holding AB

(AZA)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
kr371.00
▲(10.09% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:01/23/26
The score is primarily driven by strong financial performance (solid growth and very high profitability/ROE), partially offset by volatile cash flow. Technicals are currently weak with price below key moving averages and a negative MACD, while valuation is moderate with a supportive but not high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Low-cost digital brokerage model
Avanza’s online, low-cost trading platform drives high customer acquisition and transaction volume. Over the medium term this scalable, digital model supports recurring brokerage, interest and management fee revenue, enabling strong unit economics and efficient customer scaling.
High ROE and sector-leading profitability
Sustained mid-30%+ ROE and very high net margins indicate efficient capital use and pricing power. This persistent profitability gives the firm flexibility to reinvest, pay dividends and absorb shocks, strengthening long-term shareholder value creation.
Consistent revenue growth since 2022
Steady top-line growth over multiple years shows solid market penetration and product adoption in retail investing. Continued organic revenue expansion underpins margin leverage and supports durable earnings growth, assuming retention of its low-cost competitive position.
Negative Factors
Volatile operating and free cash flow
Large year-to-year swings in operating and free cash flow reduce predictability of cash available for dividends, buybacks and reinvestment. Persistent volatility complicates planning and increases sensitivity to one-off items or market-driven funding shifts over the medium term.
Growing balance-sheet scale raises funding sensitivity
Rapid asset growth increases reliance on deposits and market funding and heightens exposure to liquidity and regulatory pressures. Even with low reported debt, larger scale makes the bank more vulnerable to funding cost swings and systemic stress over time.
Variability in reported operating margins
Noisy operating margins and year-to-year profitability swings suggest results can be affected by one-offs or business-mix shifts. This undermines margin predictability and complicates forecasting of sustainable earnings power and capital allocation decisions.

Avanza Bank Holding AB (AZA) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

Avanza Bank Holding AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAvanza Bank Holding AB (publ) provides online stock trading services in Sweden. The company offers share and fund, investment savings, endowment insurance, endowment child insurance, external deposit, and pension insurance savings accounts, as well as occupational pensions and individual pension plans. It also trades in equities, funds, and other securities; and provides external and green mortgages, private banking mortgages, and margin loans and lending products. In addition, the company offers decision support services; and publishes topical news and independent advice on the financial website, Placera, as well as on the weekly financial magazine, Börsveckan. It primarily serves individual investors; and professional investors and corporate customers, such as entrepreneurs and asset managers. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
How the Company Makes MoneyAvanza Bank generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from brokerage fees charged on trades executed by its customers. The company also earns money from interest income on customer deposits and margin loans, where clients borrow funds to invest. Additionally, Avanza receives management fees from mutual funds and other investment products offered through its platform. The firm's focus on a low-cost model attracts a high volume of transactions, enhancing its earnings potential. Partnerships with various financial institutions and investment firms further expand its product offerings, contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Avanza Bank Holding AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong revenue growth since 2022 and exceptionally high profitability with strong ROE support a high score. Offsetting factors are volatile operating/free cash flow and some historical margin noise, reducing predictability.
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Revenue has grown consistently since 2022 (up ~10% in 2025 after ~15% in 2024), indicating solid momentum. Profitability is very strong for the sector, with high net margins in recent years (about mid-40% in 2024 and above 50% in 2023), supporting high earnings conversion. The main watch-out is some variability in operating profitability metrics across years (including an unusual operating margin print in 2021), which suggests reported margins can be noisy or affected by one-offs.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company shows a conservative capital structure with very low debt relative to equity in recent years (roughly 1.6%–5.4% in 2020–2024), and equity has expanded meaningfully (from ~SEK 3.2B in 2020 to ~SEK 7.9B in 2025). Returns on equity are strong (mid-30%+ in 2022–2024), pointing to efficient use of capital. The key risk is balance-sheet scale: total assets are very large and rising quickly for a regional bank (to ~SEK 417B in 2025), which typically increases sensitivity to funding, liquidity, and market/regulatory conditions even if on-balance-sheet debt looks low.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Free cash flow has generally tracked net income closely in most years (near 1.0x in 2021–2024), suggesting earnings quality is solid. However, cash generation is volatile: operating and free cash flow swing sharply year-to-year (e.g., ~SEK 8.6B in 2023, ~SEK 4.0B in 2024, then ~SEK 31.7B in 2025), and free cash flow growth is inconsistent (down in 2021 and 2024, up strongly in 2025). This variability reduces predictability and warrants closer monitoring of what’s driving the large moves in operating cash flow.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.74B5.08B4.40B3.12B3.41B
Gross Profit4.30B3.90B3.44B2.97B3.30B
EBITDA3.17B2.71B2.38B2.02B2.51B
Net Income2.63B2.25B1.98B1.67B2.05B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets417.05B343.61B282.45B241.09B279.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments13.06B8.19B8.63B4.92B2.94B
Total Debt712.00M281.00M92.00M83.00M122.00M
Total Liabilities409.12B337.29B276.62B236.14B274.38B
Stockholders Equity7.93B6.32B5.83B4.95B4.70B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow31.65B3.95B8.62B7.61B4.47B
Operating Cash Flow31.72B3.99B8.64B7.65B4.53B
Investing Cash Flow-23.86B-1.20B-3.28B-4.37B-2.62B
Financing Cash Flow-1.08B-1.83B-1.09B-1.36B-554.00M

Avanza Bank Holding AB Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price337.00
Price Trends
50DMA
339.50
Positive
100DMA
349.80
Negative
200DMA
347.78
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.13
Negative
RSI
55.70
Neutral
STOCH
81.53
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:AZA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 337 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 331.88, below the 50-day MA of 339.50, and below the 200-day MA of 347.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.53 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:AZA.

Avanza Bank Holding AB Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
kr10.26B15.8726.88%15.59%24.31%
76
Outperform
kr72.59B22.3939.30%3.01%2.54%4.51%
69
Neutral
kr53.18B21.1337.34%3.34%7.33%23.01%
62
Neutral
kr13.02B8.6617.97%1.78%19.81%5.77%
55
Neutral
$6.65B3.83-15.92%6.20%10.91%7.18%
54
Neutral
kr10.76B9.630.78%13.82%
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SE:AZA
Avanza Bank Holding AB
337.00
43.41
14.79%
SE:HOFI
Hoist Finance AB
148.90
79.34
114.05%
SE:SAVE
Nordnet AB
290.80
66.30
29.53%
SE:NORION
Collector AB
56.70
17.70
45.38%
SE:TFBANK
TF Bank AB
158.76
34.48
27.75%
SE:ARION
Arion Banki hf Shs Swedish DR
14.00
3.26
30.29%

Avanza Bank Holding AB Corporate Events

Avanza Delivers Record 2025 Earnings but Faces Rising Costs and Weaker Inflows
Jan 21, 2026

Avanza Bank Holding AB reported its strongest annual result ever in 2025, with full-year operating income up 15% to SEK 4.5 billion and operating profit up 17% to SEK 3.1 billion, driven by higher brokerage, currency-related income, fund commissions and net interest income, and supported by 13% growth in savings capital to SEK 1,079 billion and an 8% increase in customers to 2.24 million. However, fourth-quarter figures showed a more muted picture, with operating income up 7% year-on-year but operating profit almost flat and earnings per share down 2%, as operating expenses rose 20% amid higher personnel, marketing and other costs; net inflows also declined sharply versus the prior year. The board proposed raising the dividend to SEK 12.75 per share, corresponding to 76% of 2025 profit, underscoring confidence in the balance sheet and profitability despite cost pressures and softer inflows. During the quarter Avanza hit a key milestone in its cloud migration with its first cloud-based service going live, while also investing in Private Banking and occupational pensions and managing leadership changes, including the departure of its COO and the appointment of a new CFO. The group reiterated its long-term strategy to defend and deepen its leading position in the Swedish savings market, achieve market leadership in Private Banking and non-collectively agreed occupational pensions, improve scalability and cost efficiency, and pursue European expansion, with 2026 costs expected to rise by around 9% mainly tied to ongoing technology and growth investments.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AZA) stock is a Buy with a SEK376.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avanza Bank Holding AB stock, see the SE:AZA Stock Forecast page.

Avanza to Present Preliminary 2025 Financial Statement on 21 January
Jan 14, 2026

Avanza Bank Holding AB will publish its preliminary financial statement for 2025 on 21 January at 07:45 CET and has scheduled a results presentation at 10:00 CET the same day, led by CEO Gustaf Unger and CFO Jonas Svärling, with both a webcast and a pre-registered telephone conference enabling Q&A in English. The planned disclosure and investor-focused communication underscore Avanza’s efforts to maintain transparency with the market and its large retail customer base, providing stakeholders with early insight into the group’s 2025 performance and outlook in Sweden’s competitive savings and investment sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AZA) stock is a Buy with a SEK375.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avanza Bank Holding AB stock, see the SE:AZA Stock Forecast page.

Avanza Adds 171,000 Customers in 2025 Despite Tough Swedish Market
Jan 7, 2026

During 2025, Avanza expanded its customer base by 171,000 to a total of 2,242,700 clients by year-end, with 10,300 net new customers added in December. Despite a sluggish Swedish economy, a difficult stock market climate and a drag from the ongoing termination of external savings accounts, the platform recorded net inflows of SEK 54 billion for the year, including SEK 670 million in December, while savings capital rose 13% year-on-year to SEK 1,079.2 billion and internally financed lending, particularly mortgages, continued to grow, even as trading activity and brokerage-generating volumes declined compared with 2024.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AZA) stock is a Hold with a SEK383.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avanza Bank Holding AB stock, see the SE:AZA Stock Forecast page.

Avanza Increases Share Capital After Employee Incentive Share Issue
Dec 30, 2025

Avanza Bank Holding AB has increased its total number of shares and votes to 157,829,091 following the issuance of 38,329 new shares under its 2022/2025 employee incentive programme, raising its share capital to SEK 78,914,545.50. The change marginally dilutes existing shareholders but underscores Avanza’s continued use of equity-based remuneration to align employees’ interests with long-term shareholder value as it consolidates its position as a leading digital savings and investment platform in the Swedish market.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AZA) stock is a Hold with a SEK383.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avanza Bank Holding AB stock, see the SE:AZA Stock Forecast page.

Avanza Completes Warrant Repurchase with New Share Issuance
Dec 12, 2025

Avanza Bank Holding AB has successfully completed a repurchase of 1,131,720 warrants as part of its warrant program, offering newly issued shares in exchange. This move resulted in the issuance of 521,145 new shares, leading to a dilution of approximately 0.3%. The repurchase was conducted over three registration periods with varying prices per warrant, reflecting the market value at the time. This strategic action is likely to impact Avanza’s financial structure and shareholder value, as it consolidates its warrant program and potentially enhances investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AZA) stock is a Hold with a SEK383.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avanza Bank Holding AB stock, see the SE:AZA Stock Forecast page.

Avanza Bank Sees Growth in Customer Base and Market Share in November 2025
Dec 3, 2025

Avanza Bank Holding AB reported an increase in customers and market share in November 2025, with a net addition of 8,900 customers, bringing the total to 2,232,400. The bank’s share of the Swedish savings market rose to 8.0%, and it captured a significant portion of the net inflow and premium inflow to the Swedish life market. Despite a decrease in net inflow and brokerage-generating trades compared to the previous month, Avanza showed growth in savings capital and internally financed lending, indicating a strong position in the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AZA) stock is a Hold with a SEK383.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avanza Bank Holding AB stock, see the SE:AZA Stock Forecast page.

Avanza Bank: Leading Swedish Customer Satisfaction for 16 Years
Dec 1, 2025

Avanza Bank Holding AB has been recognized for having Sweden’s most satisfied savings customers for the 16th consecutive year, according to the Swedish Quality Index. This accolade underscores Avanza’s strong market position and commitment to customer satisfaction, as evidenced by their extensive offerings and innovations such as AI-driven financial insights and expanded stock trading options. The company’s continuous growth, marked by a substantial increase in new customers and savings capital, further solidifies its leadership in the investment platform sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AZA) stock is a Hold with a SEK383.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avanza Bank Holding AB stock, see the SE:AZA Stock Forecast page.

Avanza Bank Increases Shares and Votes Following Incentive Program
Nov 28, 2025

Avanza Bank Holding AB has increased its number of shares and votes following the issuance of new shares under the incentive program 2022/2025, raising the share capital to SEK 78,895,381. This change reflects Avanza’s commitment to rewarding its employees and may enhance its market position by aligning employee interests with company performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AZA) stock is a Hold with a SEK383.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avanza Bank Holding AB stock, see the SE:AZA Stock Forecast page.

Avanza Bank Reports Strong Customer Growth and Financial Performance in October
Nov 5, 2025

Avanza Bank Holding AB reported an increase of 151,800 customers in 2025, reaching a total of 2,223,500 by the end of October. The net inflow for October was SEK 5,070 million, contributing to a total of SEK 52,800 million for the year. The company also saw a rise in savings capital and brokerage-generating activities, indicating strong growth and engagement within its customer base. These statistics highlight Avanza’s continued expansion and robust positioning in the Swedish financial market, with significant implications for its stakeholders as it maintains its leadership in customer satisfaction and transaction volume.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AZA) stock is a Sell with a SEK330.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avanza Bank Holding AB stock, see the SE:AZA Stock Forecast page.

Avanza Bank Announces Nomination Committee for 2026 AGM
Oct 24, 2025

Avanza Bank Holding AB has announced the formation of its Nomination Committee for the upcoming Annual General Meeting in April 2026. The committee includes representatives from the four largest shareholders: Biovestor AB, Creades AB, AMF – Tjänstepensioner och Fonder, and the Dybeck family, with Erik Törnberg appointed as Chairman. This announcement is significant as it outlines the governance structure and shareholder involvement in decision-making, which could impact the company’s strategic direction and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:AZA) stock is a Hold with a SEK385.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avanza Bank Holding AB stock, see the SE:AZA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 23, 2026