4C Group AB (4C) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr318.45M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 108.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: 4.32%
• EPS Growth: 57.79%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 200
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Infrastructure
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 38,274,998
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 95,613
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 108,676
• PEG Ratio: -0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.37
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.28
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr356.62M

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: kr8.50 ▼(-30.04% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven primarily by weak financial performance—multi-year losses, a steep 2025 revenue decline, and persistently negative operating/free cash flow. Technicals further weigh on the rating as the stock trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum, while valuation offers limited support because the negative P/E reflects ongoing losses and there is no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Mission-critical risk & resilience services

4C’s focus on intelligence, risk management and resilience targets durable, mission-critical needs for corporations and governments. Structural demand for security and geopolitical risk expertise tends to persist across cycles, supporting recurring advisory and training engagements and long-term client relationships.

Moderately supported balance sheet

Equity growth and a still-moderate debt-to-equity (~0.56) provide some financial flexibility. This balance-sheet position can help fund near-term restructuring or investment in product and sales motions without immediate solvency pressure, giving management time to execute a recovery plan.

Positive EBITDA margin despite net losses

A positive EBITDA margin indicates the core business can generate operating profits before non‑cash and exceptional items. If revenue stabilizes and fixed costs are rebalanced, EBITDA-positive operations create a feasible pathway to restore net profitability and improve cash generation over months.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative operating & free cash flow

Three consecutive years of negative operating and free cash flow mean the business is not self-funding. That forces reliance on external financing or cash reserves, constrains capital allocation, and raises execution risk for strategic initiatives in the next 2–6 months if cash generation does not recover.

Sharp 2025 revenue decline and gross margin compression

A sudden ~37% revenue drop with compressed gross margins materially reduces scale benefits and increases unit economics pressure. Recovering fixed-cost absorption and restoring margins can take multiple quarters, making near-term profitability and cash conversion challenging without new revenue streams or cost restructuring.

Multi-year shift from profits to losses

Transitioning from prior profits to sustained losses erodes retained earnings and limits reinvestment capacity. Negative returns signal that core economics have weakened, increasing pressure on management to execute structural changes and raising the risk of strategic dilution or cost measures over the medium term.

4C Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

4C Group AB (publ) provides software solutions and expert services for organizational readiness, training, and crisis management worldwide. The company offers Exonaut, a software platform that enables effective, secure, and seamless management of incidents, crises, risks, and compliance assurance; supports the sustainment and continuity of operations affected by disruptions and crises; and provides a software solution for military and civilian customers in training management and capability development. It serves defense forces, public organizations, and companies in the corporate sector. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

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4C Group AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is pressured: income statement trends show a shift from profits to losses (2023–2025) alongside a sharp 2025 revenue decline (-37.1% YoY) and gross margin compression. Cash flow is a key weakness with negative operating and free cash flow for three consecutive years, indicating the business is not currently self-funding. The balance sheet is only moderately supportive—leverage has increased (debt-to-equity ~0.56 in 2025) and returns have turned negative—limiting the offset to operating deterioration.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully versus prior years. After healthy margins in 2020–2022 (including positive net income in 2021–2022), the company shifted to losses in 2023–2025 and reported a sharp 2025 revenue decline (-37.1% year-over-year). Gross margin also compressed dramatically in 2025, and while EBITDA margin remains positive, net margin is still negative—suggesting cost structure/underlying profitability challenges despite some operating add-backs.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks moderately supported by equity, with debt-to-equity rising to ~0.56 in 2025 from lower levels in 2022–2024, signaling increasing leverage. Total assets and equity have grown over time, but returns on equity have turned negative in 2023–2024 (and net losses continued in 2025), which weakens balance-sheet quality despite an overall manageable leverage profile for now.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has weakened substantially. Operating cash flow is negative in 2023–2025 and free cash flow is consistently negative over the same period (including 2025), indicating the business is not self-funding in the current phase. While 2025 free cash flow improved versus 2024 (positive growth rate), it remains materially negative, and cash flow performance is not yet aligned with sustainable profitability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	352.39M	343.65M	332.10M	331.28M	263.75M
Gross Profit	11.19M	124.47M	123.64M	143.20M	122.58M
EBITDA	54.01M	56.44M	14.38M	48.37M	65.80M
Net Income	-16.75M	-3.47M	-9.34M	26.29M	38.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	517.50M	437.58M	386.44M	391.65M	243.90M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.48M	24.17M	62.23M	146.81M	66.03M
Total Debt	150.56M	91.57M	61.59M	70.55M	49.45M
Total Liabilities	248.63M	200.27M	159.94M	159.89M	136.30M
Stockholders Equity	268.86M	237.31M	226.50M	231.76M	107.59M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-48.42M	-66.83M	-54.82M	-4.00M	55.29M
Operating Cash Flow	-46.98M	-25.70M	-17.75M	24.62M	75.49M
Investing Cash Flow	-42.85M	-41.17M	-37.45M	-28.54M	-20.55M
Financing Cash Flow	79.43M	26.77M	-29.08M	78.92M	-14.76M

4C Group AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.15
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:4C, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.92, above the 50-day MA of 10.71, and below the 200-day MA of 13.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.62 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:4C.

4C Group AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WPAY	62 Neutral	kr121.94M	18.58	―	―	12.09%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
ADVE	55 Neutral	kr607.01M	52.29	22.29%	0.48%	27.82%	305.33%
CLAV	50 Neutral	kr1.73B	174.76	―	―	20.43%	61.67%
FREJA	50 Neutral	kr428.41M	-26.07	―	―	19.18%	48.44%
4C	42 Neutral	kr318.45M	8.08	―	―	4.32%	57.79%
CYB1	40 Underperform	€969.90K	-3.26	277.20%	―	―	―