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Shoe Carnival (SCVL)
NASDAQ:SCVL
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Shoe Carnival
(NASDAQ:SCVL)
67Neutral
Positive Factors
Brand Strategy
SCVL's focus on national brands, rather than private label and exclusive brands, will continue to prove a competitive advantage.
Product Assortment
Shoe Station stores, which carry a more elevated product assortment than Shoe Carnival stores, continue to outperform.
Store Re-bannering
Re-bannering Shoe Carnival stores to Shoe Station stores resulted in over a 10% increase in sales and margins.
Negative Factors
Consumer Demographics
Cautious FY25 guidance is likely due to Shoe Carnival banner's reliance on Hispanic consumers, who are experiencing pressures from government policies and inflation.
Sales Trends
Post back-to-school sales trends appear to have hit the doldrums, affecting overall performance.
Weather Impact
Warm weather resulted in a slow start to boot sales, leading to lowered revenue guidance.
Shoe Carnival (SCVL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$584.80M
Dividend Yield2.51%
Average Volume (3M)550.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.0
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth2.30%
EPS Growth0.88%
CountryUS
Employees5,300
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength49
IndustryRetail - Discretionary
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.68
Shares Outstanding27,174,765
10 Day Avg. Volume729,358
30 Day Avg. Volume550,325
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio9.12
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.48
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A
P/FCF Ratio1396.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$30.00Price Target Upside39.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionShoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL) is a leading footwear retailer in the United States, known for offering a wide variety of shoes at competitive prices. Established in 1978 and headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, the company operates a chain of family footwear stores primarily located in the Midwest, South, and Southeast regions of the U.S. Shoe Carnival's stores offer a broad selection of moderately priced dress, casual, and athletic footwear for men, women, and children, as well as accessories such as socks, handbags, and shoe care products. The company is recognized for its unique in-store 'carnival' atmosphere, designed to engage customers through interactive shopping experiences and promotions.
How the Company Makes MoneyShoe Carnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of footwear and related accessories in its physical retail locations and through its e-commerce platform. The company operates on a high-volume, low-margin business model, emphasizing competitive pricing to drive sales across its wide selection of products. Revenue streams are primarily categorized by product type, including men's, women's, children's footwear, and accessories. Shoe Carnival's earnings are influenced by factors such as seasonal demand, inventory management, and consumer purchasing trends. The company may also benefit from strategic partnerships with popular footwear brands, allowing it to offer exclusive or limited-time products that attract more customers. Additionally, Shoe Carnival invests in marketing and promotional events to increase store traffic and sales, focusing on creating a fun shopping environment that differentiates it from competitors.
Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Shoe Carnival demonstrates a strong financial position with solid profitability, especially in cash flow performance. The income statement indicates robust gross and net profit margins, though operational efficiency could improve. The balance sheet shows manageable leverage and stability, supported by a solid equity base.Income Statement
Shoe Carnival's income statement demonstrates solid profitability with a strong gross profit margin of 35.8% and a net profit margin of 6.1% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Revenue growth is positive, showing a 3.8% increase compared to the previous period. However, the EBIT margin of 8.0% indicates room for improvement in operational efficiency.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.59, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is robust at 11.7%, reflecting efficient use of equity. The equity ratio stands at 56.5%, indicating a solid equity base and financial stability.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals strong performance with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 21.7% and a high operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.72, suggesting excellent cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.08 further underscores the company's strong cash generation capacity.80
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 1.22B | 1.18B | 1.26B | 1.33B | 976.76M | 1.04B | Gross Profit |
| 436.83M | 421.39M | 468.16M | 526.79M | 279.98M | 311.87M | EBIT |
| 97.08M | 95.58M | 146.44M | 207.65M | 21.86M | 54.21M | EBITDA |
| 129.88M | 125.22M | 169.64M | 269.44M | 80.08M | 114.21M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 74.62M | 73.35M | 110.07M | 154.88M | 15.99M | 42.91M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 91.10M | 111.25M | 62.97M | 132.40M | 106.53M | 61.90M | Total Assets |
| 1.12B | 1.04B | 989.78M | 812.26M | 642.75M | 628.37M | Total Debt |
| 376.11M | 354.34M | 343.23M | 246.35M | 231.42M | 237.25M | Net Debt |
| 298.88M | 255.34M | 291.86M | 128.91M | 124.88M | 175.35M | Total Liabilities |
| 488.77M | 458.64M | 464.21M | 359.73M | 332.57M | 331.01M | Stockholders Equity |
| 635.66M | 583.39M | 525.57M | 452.53M | 310.18M | 297.36M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 80.90M | 66.47M | -26.86M | 116.51M | 51.00M | 48.45M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 128.55M | 122.76M | 50.44M | 147.89M | 63.40M | 66.95M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -134.01M | -54.64M | -74.03M | -119.25M | -12.09M | -17.75M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -19.28M | -20.49M | -42.48M | -17.73M | -6.67M | -54.32M |
Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis
Negative
21.52
Price Trends
25.19
Negative
29.93
Negative
34.71
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.83
Negative
36.98
Neutral
46.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.15, below the 50-day MA of 25.19, and below the 200-day MA of 34.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SCVL.
Shoe Carnival Risk Analysis
Shoe Carnival disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shoe Carnival reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $5.86B | 6.55 | 57.76% | ― | 3.53% | 24.55% | |
73 Outperform | $8.38B | 13.51 | 15.42% | ― | 12.11% | 19.16% | |
71 Outperform | $3.20B | 18.69 | 17.27% | ― | 8.31% | 3.96% | |
67 Neutral | $584.80M | 8.03 | 11.97% | 2.51% | 2.30% | 0.88% | |
67 Neutral | $554.88M | 5.35 | 17.83% | 1.70% | -1.28% | 2.83% | |
59 Neutral | $12.37B | 11.05 | 1.62% | 3.72% | 1.33% | -19.92% | |
55 Neutral | $1.53B | 131.35 | 0.62% | ― | -2.20% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
SCVL
Shoe Carnival
21.52
-13.46
-38.48%
CROX
Crocs
104.59
-36.66
-25.95%
FL
Foot Locker
16.13
-9.74
-37.65%
BOOT
Boot Barn
104.73
19.55
22.95%
SKX
Skechers USA
56.08
-3.91
-6.52%
CAL
Caleres
16.50
-22.84
-58.06%
Shoe Carnival Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Mar 20, 2025 | % Change Since: -4.99% | Next Earnings Date: May 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment with strong strategic growth initiatives and financial strength despite some challenges in specific segments and external uncertainties. The rebanner strategy is expected to drive significant future profitability, and the company has effectively managed acquisitions and marketing strategies.Highlights
Net Sales Growth
Shoe Carnival achieved net sales of $1.2 billion in fiscal 2024, a growth of 2.3%, outperforming the industry which contracted mid-singles.
Shoe Station Segment Success
Shoe Station grew by 5.7%, becoming the fastest-growing retailer in the industry and leading to successful market entries and customer acquisition.
Rogan's Shoes Acquisition Benefits
Rogan's exceeded profit expectations, with full synergies captured ahead of schedule, contributing $16.5 million in Q4 sales.
Digital-First Marketing Strategy
Continued to drive highly profitable growth, particularly during event periods, achieving sales growth during Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Strong Financial Position
The company ended fiscal 2024 with zero debt, strong cash flow, and increased year-end cash balances, positioning well for future investments.
Shoe Station Rebranding Strategy
A new plan to rebanner stores under Shoe Station, aiming to transform it into a national leader, which is expected to increase profitability by over 20% in 2027.
Dividend Increase
Increased dividend by 11% to $0.15 per share, marking a 238% increase compared to five years ago and 52 consecutive quarters of dividends.
Lowlights
Shoe Carnival Sales Decline
Comparable sales at Shoe Carnival declined 6.3% in Q4 and mid-singles for the year, primarily during non-event periods.
Boot Season Disappointment
Unseasonably warm weather led to a disappointing boot season, with sales declines in both men's and women's categories.
Pressure on Lower-Income Customers
Continued downtrend expected with lower-income customers, impacting non-event period sales at the Carnival banner.
Potential Tariff and Inflation Impact
Uncertainty regarding tariffs and inflation could affect pricing and consumer confidence, not fully accounted for in current guidance.
Company Guidance
During Shoe Carnival's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, the company emphasized strong fiscal 2024 performance, with net sales reaching $1.2 billion, a 2.3% increase, despite industry-wide challenges. They achieved a net income of $75 million, translating to an EPS of $2.72, aligning with the high end of their guidance. The Shoe Station banner experienced robust growth of 5.7%, contributing significantly to the overall sales increase. The company maintained a gross profit margin above 35% for the fourth consecutive year. Strategic investments are planned to transform Shoe Station into a national brand, with 50 to 75 stores to be rebranded in fiscal 2025, aiming for a 20% profitability increase by 2027. The company ended the year with zero debt and increased cash reserves, affirming a commitment to shareholder returns with their 52nd consecutive dividend.Shoe Carnival Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Shoe Carnival Sets 2025 Bonus Performance Criteria
Neutral
Mar 17, 2025
On March 12, 2025, Shoe Carnival’s Compensation Committee set the performance criteria for the fiscal 2025 bonus, based on operating income, with payouts ranging from 25% to 175% of target bonuses. Additionally, the committee granted restricted stock units and performance stock units under the 2017 Equity Plan, with vesting conditions tied to the company’s net income per diluted share and continuous service through 2028.
Executive/Board Changes
Shoe Carnival Announces Leadership Transition in Merchandising
Neutral
Feb 27, 2025
Shoe Carnival has announced the retirement of Carl N. Scibetta, its Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer, effective April 4, 2025, after over 50 years in the retail industry. Tanya E. Gordon, who has been with the company in various merchandising roles since 2014, will succeed him as Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer starting April 6, 2025. This leadership transition is expected to continue the company’s focus on its core merchandise categories, leveraging Ms. Gordon’s extensive experience in women’s, children’s, and accessory merchandise.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.