Shoe Carnival (SCVL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $503.43M
• Dividend Yield: 3.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 531.16K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: -6.22%
• EPS Growth: -22.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.53
• Shares Outstanding: 27,374,968
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 586,856
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 531,158
• PEG Ratio: 8.93
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.51
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.67
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.47
• 1Y Price Target: $19.00
• Price Target Upside: 1.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.00 ▲(6.72% Upside)

Shoe Carnival's overall stock score reflects a combination of moderate financial performance and technical indicators, offset by attractive valuation metrics and positive corporate events. The strategic shift towards Shoe Station and shareholder-friendly initiatives are positive, but challenges in Shoe Carnival's performance and market momentum weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Strategic Rebranding

The strategic shift towards Shoe Station, focusing on premium brands, is expected to enhance market position and drive long-term growth.

Strong Financial Position

A strong financial position with no debt and significant cash reserves provides flexibility for strategic investments and resilience against market fluctuations.

Shareholder Returns

The new share repurchase program reflects a commitment to enhancing shareholder value and confidence in the company's long-term prospects.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

A decline in net sales indicates challenges in maintaining market share and could pressure long-term revenue growth if not addressed.

Margin Pressure

Decreasing profit margins suggest operational inefficiencies and increased cost pressures, potentially impacting long-term profitability.

Investment Impact on Earnings

Significant investment in rebranding impacts short-term earnings, posing a risk if expected long-term benefits do not materialize.

Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company offers range of dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children; and various accessories. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 372 stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico under the Shoe Carnival banner; and 21 locations across the Southeast under the Shoe Station banner. The company also sells its products through online shopping at shoecarnival.com, as well as through mobile application. Shoe Carnival, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Shoe Carnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of footwear and related accessories in its retail stores and online. The company’s revenue model is built around offering a diverse selection of brands at competitive prices, appealing to budget-conscious consumers. Key revenue streams include in-store sales, e-commerce transactions, and promotional events that drive foot traffic. The company has established partnerships with various footwear brands, allowing it to offer exclusive products and promotions. Additionally, Shoe Carnival benefits from its customer loyalty program, which encourages repeat purchases. Seasonal promotions and sales events also play a significant role in boosting sales, contributing to overall revenue growth.

Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Shoe Carnival's financial performance shows signs of pressure with declining revenue and profit margins. The balance sheet remains stable with manageable leverage, but profitability metrics have weakened. Cash flow generation is positive but could be more efficient. The company should focus on improving operational efficiency and cash conversion to enhance financial performance.

Income Statement

Shoe Carnival's income statement shows a decline in revenue growth with a negative trend in the TTM period. The gross profit margin remains stable, but the net profit margin has decreased compared to previous periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also contracted, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity has decreased over time, suggesting reduced profitability. The equity ratio remains stable, showing a balanced capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate in the TTM period, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, indicating potential challenges in converting income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, suggesting room for improvement in cash generation efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.14B	1.20B	1.18B	1.26B	1.33B	976.76M
Gross Profit	418.09M	428.79M	421.77M	468.16M	526.79M	279.98M
EBITDA	101.93M	128.87M	125.22M	218.38M	269.44M	80.08M
Net Income	57.88M	73.77M	73.35M	110.07M	154.88M	15.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.17B	1.12B	1.04B	989.78M	812.26M	642.75M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	107.66M	123.11M	111.25M	62.97M	132.40M	106.53M
Total Debt	362.79M	367.99M	354.34M	343.23M	246.35M	231.42M
Total Liabilities	489.36M	475.14M	458.64M	464.21M	359.73M	332.57M
Stockholders Equity	683.18M	649.00M	583.39M	525.57M	452.53M	310.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	35.09M	69.48M	66.47M	-26.86M	116.51M	51.00M
Operating Cash Flow	81.81M	102.64M	122.76M	50.44M	147.89M	63.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-46.27M	-77.67M	-54.64M	-74.03M	-119.25M	-12.09M
Financing Cash Flow	-18.40M	-15.29M	-20.49M	-42.48M	-17.73M	-6.67M

Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.74
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.19, above the 50-day MA of 18.27, and below the 200-day MA of 19.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SCVL.

Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BOOT	80 Outperform	$6.06B	30.77	18.74%	―	17.82%	34.88%
AEO	77 Outperform	$4.25B	21.64	12.36%	2.09%	-1.15%	-0.98%
BKE	70 Outperform	$2.92B	14.04	41.26%	6.82%	4.67%	3.46%
SCVL	69 Neutral	$503.43M	8.75	8.78%	3.12%	-6.22%	-22.81%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DBI	53 Neutral	$356.71M	―	-8.61%	2.41%	-5.16%	-3394.48%
GCO	48 Neutral	$382.16M	―	-0.13%	―	2.76%	96.01%

Shoe Carnival Corporate Events

Shoe Carnival Announces New Share Repurchase Program

On December 10, 2025, Shoe Carnival, Inc.’s Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program for up to $50 million of its common stock, effective January 1, 2026, replacing the existing program set to expire on December 31, 2025. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on January 26, 2026. These financial moves reflect Shoe Carnival’s commitment to shareholder returns and its strategic focus on expanding its Shoe Station banner, aiming to grow it to over half of its stores by the Back-to-School season in 2026.

Shoe Carnival Appoints New Senior Vice President

On December 7, 2025, Shoe Carnival, Inc. announced the appointment of Patrick C. Edwards as the Senior Vice President, Controller and Treasurer. This transition included a change in his annual base salary to $325,000, reflecting his new responsibilities within the company.

Shoe Carnival Appoints New CFO Amid Expansion Plans

Shoe Carnival announced the appointment of W. Kerry Jackson as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective September 28, 2025. Jackson, who rejoined the company in June 2025 as Senior Vice President of New Business Development after retiring in May 2023, previously served as the company’s CFO for 27 years. This transition is part of Shoe Carnival’s strategic plan to expand its store count and strengthen its market position, as evidenced by the recent grand opening of its 100th Shoe Station store, with plans to exceed 215 stores by July 2026. Patrick C. Edwards, the current CFO, will transition to the role of Senior Vice President, Special Projects, and Treasurer.