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Shoe Carnival (SCVL)
NASDAQ:SCVL
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Shoe Carnival
(NASDAQ:SCVL)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
▲(8.76% Upside)
Shoe Carnival's overall stock score is influenced by its stable financial position and attractive valuation. However, declining sales and profit margins, along with bearish technical indicators, weigh on the score. The strategic shift towards Shoe Station and strong financial position provide a positive outlook for long-term growth.
Positive Factors
Strategic Shift to Shoe Station
The strategic focus on Shoe Station, with its higher-income customer base and premium brands, is expected to drive long-term growth and profitability.
Debt-Free Financial Position
A debt-free balance sheet provides financial flexibility to invest in growth initiatives and withstand economic downturns, supporting long-term stability.
CFO Appointment and Expansion Plans
The appointment of an experienced CFO and aggressive expansion plans are likely to strengthen market position and operational efficiency.
Negative Factors
Declining Shoe Carnival Sales
Declining sales at Shoe Carnival indicate challenges in appealing to lower-income customers, potentially affecting overall revenue and market share.
Overall Net Sales Decline
A decline in overall net sales suggests potential market share loss and challenges in maintaining revenue growth, impacting long-term financial health.
Margin Pressure and Investment Year
Anticipated margin pressure and investments in fiscal 2026 could strain profitability, affecting short-term earnings and cash flow.
Shoe Carnival (SCVL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$480.12M
Dividend Yield3.44%
Average Volume (3M)486.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth-6.22%
EPS Growth-22.81%
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.53
Shares Outstanding27,374,968
10 Day Avg. Volume481,676
30 Day Avg. Volume486,155
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio8.93
Price to Book (P/B)1.13
Price to Sales (P/S)0.61
P/FCF Ratio10.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.58
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.47
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.00Price Target Upside11.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionShoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company offers range of dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children; and various accessories. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 372 stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico under the Shoe Carnival banner; and 21 locations across the Southeast under the Shoe Station banner. The company also sells its products through online shopping at shoecarnival.com, as well as through mobile application. Shoe Carnival, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyShoe Carnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of footwear and related accessories in its retail stores and online. The company’s revenue model is built around offering a diverse selection of brands at competitive prices, appealing to budget-conscious consumers. Key revenue streams include in-store sales, e-commerce transactions, and promotional events that drive foot traffic. The company has established partnerships with various footwear brands, allowing it to offer exclusive products and promotions. Additionally, Shoe Carnival benefits from its customer loyalty program, which encourages repeat purchases. Seasonal promotions and sales events also play a significant role in boosting sales, contributing to overall revenue growth.
Shoe Carnival Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 20, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed outlook. While Shoe Station showed impressive growth and contributed positively to the company's financial strength, Shoe Carnival's performance remained weak, and overall net sales declined. The company is strategically investing in its rebanner program, which impacts short-term earnings but is expected to yield long-term benefits. Financially, the company remains strong and debt-free, positioning it well for future growth.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
EPS and Net Sales Surpass Expectations
EPS of $0.53 and net sales of $297.2 million exceeded consensus expectations. Gross profit margin expanded by 160 basis points to 37.6%.
Shoe Station's Strong Performance
Shoe Station net sales grew 5.3% with a 260 basis points margin expansion, outperforming Shoe Carnival by 10.5 percentage points.
Successful Store Rebanner Strategy
Completed 101 store rebanners during fiscal 2025, with plans for Shoe Station to represent 51% of the total store fleet by back-to-school 2026.
Strong Financial Position
The company is debt-free with over $100 million in cash and securities, funding the rebanner program from operating cash flow.
Positive Back-to-School Sales
Achieved positive comparable sales during the August back-to-school season with margin expansion.
Negative Updates
Shoe Carnival's Decline
Shoe Carnival net sales declined 5.2%, reflecting continued pressure on lower-income households earning under $40,000 annually.
Overall Net Sales Decline
Net sales totaled $297.2 million, down 3.2% versus $306.9 million last year. Comparable store sales declined 2.7%.
Rebanner Investments Impact Earnings
Third quarter EPS included a $0.22 impact from planned rebanner investments, with a year-to-date impact of $0.58 per share.
Boot Season Off to a Slow Start
Boot season started modestly, although it picked up later in the quarter.
Anticipated Continued Challenges in Fiscal 2026
Fiscal 2026 is expected to be a year of investment with lower sales, margin pressure from clearance, and flat to up SG&A.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of fiscal 2025, Shoe Carnival, soon to be renamed Shoe Station Group, Inc., reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.53 and net sales of $297.2 million, both surpassing consensus estimates. The gross profit margin increased by 160 basis points to 37.6%, driven by a strategic focus on higher-income customers at Shoe Station. Shoe Station's net sales rose by 5.3%, with product margins expanding 260 basis points, whereas Shoe Carnival's net sales fell by 5.2%. Athletics accounted for 51% of total sales, with Shoe Station witnessing double-digit growth in this category. The company completed 101 store conversions in fiscal 2025, with a total of 428 stores now operational, comprising 144 Shoe Station and 284 Shoe Carnival locations. Shoe Station is projected to constitute 51% of the store fleet by back-to-school 2026, marking a strategic shift toward premium brands and customers with a median household income between $60,000 and $100,000. This transition is expected to generate $20 million in annual cost savings and free up $100 million in working capital by the end of fiscal 2027.Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Shoe Carnival's financial performance shows signs of pressure with declining revenue and profit margins. The balance sheet remains stable with manageable leverage, but profitability metrics have weakened. Cash flow generation is positive but could be more efficient. The company should focus on improving operational efficiency and cash conversion to enhance financial performance.Income Statement
Shoe Carnival's income statement shows a decline in revenue growth with a negative trend in the TTM period. The gross profit margin remains stable, but the net profit margin has decreased compared to previous periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also contracted, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity has decreased over time, suggesting reduced profitability. The equity ratio remains stable, showing a balanced capital structure.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate in the TTM period, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, indicating potential challenges in converting income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, suggesting room for improvement in cash generation efficiency.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.14B | 1.20B | 1.18B | 1.26B | 1.33B | 976.76M |
| Gross Profit | 418.09M | 428.79M | 421.77M | 468.16M | 526.79M | 279.98M |
| EBITDA | 101.93M | 128.87M | 125.22M | 218.38M | 269.44M | 80.08M |
| Net Income | 57.88M | 73.77M | 73.35M | 110.07M | 154.88M | 15.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.17B | 1.12B | 1.04B | 989.78M | 812.26M | 642.75M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 107.66M | 123.11M | 111.25M | 62.97M | 132.40M | 106.53M |
| Total Debt | 362.79M | 367.99M | 354.34M | 343.23M | 246.35M | 231.42M |
| Total Liabilities | 489.36M | 475.14M | 458.64M | 464.21M | 359.73M | 332.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 683.18M | 649.00M | 583.39M | 525.57M | 452.53M | 310.18M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 30.54M | 69.48M | 66.47M | -26.86M | 116.51M | 51.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 82.58M | 102.64M | 122.76M | 50.44M | 147.89M | 63.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -95.25M | -77.67M | -54.64M | -74.03M | -119.25M | -12.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.40M | -15.29M | -20.49M | -42.48M | -17.73M | -6.67M |
Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis
Neutral
17.01
Price Trends
18.43
Negative
20.07
Negative
19.90
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.20
Negative
50.06
Neutral
52.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 17.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.00, below the 50-day MA of 18.43, and below the 200-day MA of 19.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SCVL.
Shoe Carnival Risk Analysis
Shoe Carnival disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shoe Carnival reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $6.16B | 29.24 | 18.74% | ― | 17.82% | 34.88% | |
72 Outperform | $3.91B | 19.90 | 12.36% | 2.09% | -1.15% | -0.98% | |
71 Outperform | $2.86B | 13.71 | 41.26% | 6.92% | 4.67% | 3.46% | |
68 Neutral | $480.12M | 8.34 | 8.78% | 3.44% | -6.22% | -22.81% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $241.77M | ― | -9.98% | 2.78% | -4.63% | -637.55% | |
51 Neutral | $382.16M | ― | -0.13% | ― | 2.76% | 96.01% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SCVL
Shoe Carnival
17.56
-17.17
-49.44%
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22.42
5.46
32.19%
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56.39
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15.72%
DBI
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4.85
-0.60
-11.01%
GCO
Genesco
23.41
-20.58
-46.78%
BOOT
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197.66
51.50
35.24%
Shoe Carnival Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Shoe Carnival Appoints New CFO Amid Expansion Plans
Positive
Sep 25, 2025
Shoe Carnival announced the appointment of W. Kerry Jackson as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective September 28, 2025. Jackson, who rejoined the company in June 2025 as Senior Vice President of New Business Development after retiring in May 2023, previously served as the company’s CFO for 27 years. This transition is part of Shoe Carnival’s strategic plan to expand its store count and strengthen its market position, as evidenced by the recent grand opening of its 100th Shoe Station store, with plans to exceed 215 stores by July 2026. Patrick C. Edwards, the current CFO, will transition to the role of Senior Vice President, Special Projects, and Treasurer.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.