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Shoe Carnival (SCVL)
NASDAQ:SCVL
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Shoe Carnival
(NASDAQ:SCVL)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
▲(5.49% Upside)
Shoe Carnival's overall stock score reflects a combination of moderate financial performance and technical indicators, offset by attractive valuation metrics and positive corporate events. The strategic shift towards Shoe Station and shareholder-friendly initiatives are positive, but challenges in Shoe Carnival's performance and market momentum weigh on the score.
Positive Factors
Strategic Rebranding
The strategic shift towards Shoe Station, focusing on premium brands, is expected to enhance market position and drive long-term growth.
Strong Financial Position
A strong financial position with no debt and significant cash reserves provides flexibility for strategic investments and resilience against market fluctuations.
Shareholder Returns
The new share repurchase program reflects a commitment to enhancing shareholder value and confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
A decline in net sales indicates challenges in maintaining market share and could pressure long-term revenue growth if not addressed.
Margin Pressure
Decreasing profit margins suggest operational inefficiencies and increased cost pressures, potentially impacting long-term profitability.
Investment Impact on Earnings
Significant investment in rebranding impacts short-term earnings, posing a risk if expected long-term benefits do not materialize.
Shoe Carnival (SCVL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$523.68M
Dividend Yield3.12%
Average Volume (3M)691.02K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.1
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth-6.22%
EPS Growth-22.81%
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.53
Shares Outstanding27,374,968
10 Day Avg. Volume981,031
30 Day Avg. Volume691,025
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio8.93
Price to Book (P/B)1.13
Price to Sales (P/S)0.61
P/FCF Ratio10.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.00Price Target Upside0.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionShoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company offers range of dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children; and various accessories. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 372 stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico under the Shoe Carnival banner; and 21 locations across the Southeast under the Shoe Station banner. The company also sells its products through online shopping at shoecarnival.com, as well as through mobile application. Shoe Carnival, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyShoe Carnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of footwear and related accessories in its retail stores and online. The company’s revenue model is built around offering a diverse selection of brands at competitive prices, appealing to budget-conscious consumers. Key revenue streams include in-store sales, e-commerce transactions, and promotional events that drive foot traffic. The company has established partnerships with various footwear brands, allowing it to offer exclusive products and promotions. Additionally, Shoe Carnival benefits from its customer loyalty program, which encourages repeat purchases. Seasonal promotions and sales events also play a significant role in boosting sales, contributing to overall revenue growth.
Shoe Carnival Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Shoe Carnival Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 20, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed outlook. While Shoe Station showed impressive growth and contributed positively to the company's financial strength, Shoe Carnival's performance remained weak, and overall net sales declined. The company is strategically investing in its rebanner program, which impacts short-term earnings but is expected to yield long-term benefits. Financially, the company remains strong and debt-free, positioning it well for future growth.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
EPS and Net Sales Surpass Expectations
EPS of $0.53 and net sales of $297.2 million exceeded consensus expectations. Gross profit margin expanded by 160 basis points to 37.6%.
Shoe Station's Strong Performance
Shoe Station net sales grew 5.3% with a 260 basis points margin expansion, outperforming Shoe Carnival by 10.5 percentage points.
Successful Store Rebanner Strategy
Completed 101 store rebanners during fiscal 2025, with plans for Shoe Station to represent 51% of the total store fleet by back-to-school 2026.
Strong Financial Position
The company is debt-free with over $100 million in cash and securities, funding the rebanner program from operating cash flow.
Positive Back-to-School Sales
Achieved positive comparable sales during the August back-to-school season with margin expansion.
Negative Updates
Shoe Carnival's Decline
Shoe Carnival net sales declined 5.2%, reflecting continued pressure on lower-income households earning under $40,000 annually.
Overall Net Sales Decline
Net sales totaled $297.2 million, down 3.2% versus $306.9 million last year. Comparable store sales declined 2.7%.
Rebanner Investments Impact Earnings
Third quarter EPS included a $0.22 impact from planned rebanner investments, with a year-to-date impact of $0.58 per share.
Boot Season Off to a Slow Start
Boot season started modestly, although it picked up later in the quarter.
Anticipated Continued Challenges in Fiscal 2026
Fiscal 2026 is expected to be a year of investment with lower sales, margin pressure from clearance, and flat to up SG&A.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of fiscal 2025, Shoe Carnival, soon to be renamed Shoe Station Group, Inc., reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.53 and net sales of $297.2 million, both surpassing consensus estimates. The gross profit margin increased by 160 basis points to 37.6%, driven by a strategic focus on higher-income customers at Shoe Station. Shoe Station's net sales rose by 5.3%, with product margins expanding 260 basis points, whereas Shoe Carnival's net sales fell by 5.2%. Athletics accounted for 51% of total sales, with Shoe Station witnessing double-digit growth in this category. The company completed 101 store conversions in fiscal 2025, with a total of 428 stores now operational, comprising 144 Shoe Station and 284 Shoe Carnival locations. Shoe Station is projected to constitute 51% of the store fleet by back-to-school 2026, marking a strategic shift toward premium brands and customers with a median household income between $60,000 and $100,000. This transition is expected to generate $20 million in annual cost savings and free up $100 million in working capital by the end of fiscal 2027.Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Shoe Carnival's financial performance shows signs of pressure with declining revenue and profit margins. The balance sheet remains stable with manageable leverage, but profitability metrics have weakened. Cash flow generation is positive but could be more efficient.Income Statement
Shoe Carnival's income statement shows a decline in revenue growth with a negative trend in the TTM period. The gross profit margin remains stable, but the net profit margin has decreased compared to previous periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also contracted, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity has decreased over time, suggesting reduced profitability. The equity ratio remains stable, showing a balanced capital structure.Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate in the TTM period, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, indicating potential challenges in converting income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, suggesting room for improvement in cash generation efficiency.| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.14B | 1.20B | 1.18B | 1.26B | 1.33B | 976.76M |
| Gross Profit | 418.09M | 428.79M | 421.77M | 468.16M | 526.79M | 279.98M |
| EBITDA | 101.93M | 128.87M | 125.22M | 218.38M | 269.44M | 80.08M |
| Net Income | 57.88M | 73.77M | 73.35M | 110.07M | 154.88M | 15.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.17B | 1.12B | 1.04B | 989.78M | 812.26M | 642.75M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 107.66M | 123.11M | 111.25M | 62.97M | 132.40M | 106.53M |
| Total Debt | 362.79M | 367.99M | 354.34M | 343.23M | 246.35M | 231.42M |
| Total Liabilities | 489.36M | 475.14M | 458.64M | 464.21M | 359.73M | 332.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 683.18M | 649.00M | 583.39M | 525.57M | 452.53M | 310.18M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 35.09M | 69.48M | 66.47M | -26.86M | 116.51M | 51.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 81.81M | 102.64M | 122.76M | 50.44M | 147.89M | 63.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -46.27M | -77.67M | -54.64M | -74.03M | -119.25M | -12.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.40M | -15.29M | -20.49M | -42.48M | -17.73M | -6.67M |
Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis
Positive
18.96
Price Trends
17.65
Positive
19.51
Negative
19.54
Negative
Market Momentum
0.14
Negative
59.04
Neutral
80.37
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.26, above the 50-day MA of 17.65, and below the 200-day MA of 19.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.37 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SCVL.
Shoe Carnival Risk Analysis
Shoe Carnival disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shoe Carnival reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $4.55B | 23.15 | 12.36% | 2.09% | -1.15% | -0.98% | |
72 Outperform | $2.84B | 13.64 | 41.26% | 6.82% | 4.67% | 3.46% | |
72 Outperform | $5.96B | 29.66 | 18.74% | ― | 17.82% | 34.88% | |
69 Neutral | $523.68M | 9.10 | 8.78% | 3.12% | -6.22% | -22.81% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | $323.67M | -176.06 | -0.13% | ― | 2.76% | 96.01% | |
53 Neutral | $405.53M | -13.50 | -8.61% | 2.68% | -5.16% | -3394.48% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SCVL
Shoe Carnival
18.70
-11.11
-37.26%
AEO
American Eagle
25.87
10.94
73.31%
BKE
Buckle
55.58
8.25
17.43%
DBI
Designer Brands
7.92
2.85
56.21%
GCO
Genesco
32.43
-7.99
-19.77%
BOOT
Boot Barn
200.51
45.54
29.39%
Shoe Carnival Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividends
Shoe Carnival Announces New Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Dec 12, 2025
On December 10, 2025, Shoe Carnival, Inc.’s Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program for up to $50 million of its common stock, effective January 1, 2026, replacing the existing program set to expire on December 31, 2025. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on January 26, 2026. These financial moves reflect Shoe Carnival’s commitment to shareholder returns and its strategic focus on expanding its Shoe Station banner, aiming to grow it to over half of its stores by the Back-to-School season in 2026.
The most recent analyst rating on (SCVL) stock is a Hold with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shoe Carnival stock, see the SCVL Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
Shoe Carnival Appoints New Senior Vice President
Neutral
Dec 9, 2025
On December 7, 2025, Shoe Carnival, Inc. announced the appointment of Patrick C. Edwards as the Senior Vice President, Controller and Treasurer. This transition included a change in his annual base salary to $325,000, reflecting his new responsibilities within the company.
The most recent analyst rating on (SCVL) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shoe Carnival stock, see the SCVL Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.