Shoe Carnival (SCVL)
NASDAQ:SCVL
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Shoe Carnival
(NASDAQ:SCVL)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$17.50
▲(6.51% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/27/26
Overall score reflects attractive valuation (low P/E and solid yield) and a generally solid financial position, partially offset by weaker recent operating/cash-flow momentum and bearish technical trends. The latest earnings call adds cautious optimism from the Shoe Station pivot and cost-savings roadmap, but near-term sales and margin pressures keep the score moderate.
Positive Factors
Shoe Station growth
Shoe Station's outsized same-banner growth and 260bps margin expansion signal a durable mix shift toward higher-margin, premium customers. As the company converts stores to this banner, sustained margin improvement and mix-driven revenue stability are likely over the next 2–3 years.
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin pressure
A multi-quarter revenue decline and contracting profitability metrics point to structural demand or mix challenges. If persistent, weaker top-line and margin compression constrain reinvestment capacity and reduce earnings power over the medium term absent a successful strategic pivot.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Shoe Station growth
Shoe Station's outsized same-banner growth and 260bps margin expansion signal a durable mix shift toward higher-margin, premium customers. As the company converts stores to this banner, sustained margin improvement and mix-driven revenue stability are likely over the next 2–3 years.
Read all positive factors
Shoe Carnival (SCVL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$449.77M
Dividend Yield3.12%
Average Volume (3M)619.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)1.19
Revenue Growth-6.22%
EPS Growth-22.81%
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.33
Shares Outstanding27,374,968
10 Day Avg. Volume451,877
30 Day Avg. Volume619,563
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.33
Price to Book (P/B)0.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio19.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.57
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.00Price Target Upside33.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.12B
Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company offers range of dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children; and v...
How the Company Makes Money
Shoe Carnival primarily makes money by selling footwear and related accessories directly to consumers through its retail stores and online channels, recognizing revenue at the point of sale (in-store) or upon fulfillment/shipment (e-commerce). Its...
Shoe Carnival Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Shoe Carnival Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 20, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mixed outlook. While Shoe Station showed impressive growth and contributed positively to the company's financial strength, Shoe Carnival's performance remained weak, and overall net sales declined. The company is strategically investing in its rebanner program, which impacts short-term earnings but is expected to yield long-term benefits. Financially, the company remains strong and debt-free, positioning it well for future growth.Positive Updates
EPS and Net Sales Surpass Expectations
EPS of $0.53 and net sales of $297.2 million exceeded consensus expectations. Gross profit margin expanded by 160 basis points to 37.6%.
Negative Updates
Shoe Carnival's Decline
Shoe Carnival net sales declined 5.2%, reflecting continued pressure on lower-income households earning under $40,000 annually.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
EPS and Net Sales Surpass Expectations
EPS of $0.53 and net sales of $297.2 million exceeded consensus expectations. Gross profit margin expanded by 160 basis points to 37.6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of fiscal 2025, Shoe Carnival, soon to be renamed Shoe Station Group, Inc., reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.53 and net sales of $297.2 million, both surpassing consensus estimates. The gross profit margin increased by 160 basis points to 37.6%, driven by a strategic focus on higher-income customers at Shoe Station. Shoe Station's net sales rose by 5.3%, with product margins expanding 260 basis points, whereas Shoe Carnival's net sales fell by 5.2%. Athletics accounted for 51% of total sales, with Shoe Station witnessing double-digit growth in this category. The company completed 101 store conversions in fiscal 2025, with a total of 428 stores now operational, comprising 144 Shoe Station and 284 Shoe Carnival locations. Shoe Station is projected to constitute 51% of the store fleet by back-to-school 2026, marking a strategic shift toward premium brands and customers with a median household income between $60,000 and $100,000. This transition is expected to generate $20 million in annual cost savings and free up $100 million in working capital by the end of fiscal 2027.Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.14B | 1.14B | 1.20B | 1.18B | 1.26B | 1.33B |
| Gross Profit | 418.09M | 415.15M | 428.79M | 421.77M | 468.16M | 526.79M |
| EBITDA | 101.93M | 66.76M | 128.87M | 125.22M | 218.38M | 269.44M |
| Net Income | 57.88M | 52.27M | 73.77M | 73.35M | 110.07M | 154.88M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.17B | 1.20B | 1.12B | 1.04B | 989.78M | 812.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 107.66M | 130.73M | 123.11M | 111.25M | 62.97M | 132.40M |
| Total Debt | 362.79M | 371.43M | 367.99M | 354.34M | 343.23M | 246.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 489.36M | 512.08M | 475.14M | 458.64M | 464.21M | 359.73M |
| Stockholders Equity | 683.18M | 689.67M | 649.00M | 583.39M | 525.57M | 452.53M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 35.09M | 26.58M | 69.48M | 66.47M | -26.86M | 116.51M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 81.81M | 71.30M | 102.64M | 122.76M | 50.44M | 147.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -46.27M | -44.02M | -77.67M | -54.64M | -74.03M | -119.25M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.40M | -18.87M | -15.29M | -20.49M | -42.48M | -17.73M |
Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis
Negative
16.43
Price Trends
19.34
Negative
18.43
Negative
19.55
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.57
Positive
41.00
Neutral
52.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.68, below the 50-day MA of 19.34, and below the 200-day MA of 19.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SCVL.
Shoe Carnival Risk Analysis
Shoe Carnival disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shoe Carnival reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $2.54B | 11.34 | 45.18% | 6.82% | 4.67% | 3.46% | |
73 Outperform | $4.65B | 16.51 | 18.28% | ― | 17.82% | 34.88% | |
62 Neutral | $449.77M | 9.96 | 8.72% | 3.12% | -6.22% | -22.81% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $312.72M | 22.59 | 2.46% | ― | 2.76% | 96.01% | |
54 Neutral | $2.72B | 20.90 | 12.12% | 2.09% | -1.15% | -0.98% | |
50 Neutral | $280.45M | -37.20 | -9.44% | 2.68% | -5.16% | -3394.48% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SCVL
Shoe Carnival
16.43
-5.08
-23.62%
AEO
American Eagle
16.07
4.59
40.02%
BKE
Buckle
49.64
13.62
37.82%
DBI
Designer Brands
5.65
1.92
51.60%
GCO
Genesco
28.80
6.59
29.67%
BOOT
Boot Barn
152.83
45.56
42.47%
Shoe Carnival Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Shoe Carnival Revamps Executive Pay With Interim CEO Package
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Shoe Carnival’s board compensation committee approved a new pay package for Clifton E. Sifford tied to his role as interim president and chief executive officer, effective February 24, 2026, while he continues as executive ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Shoe Carnival Names Interim CEO Amid Leadership Transition
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 24, 2026, Shoe Carnival’s board appointed veteran executive and current vice chairman Clifton E. (Cliff) Sifford as interim president and chief executive officer, while he continues to serve as vice chairman. He replaces Mark J. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.