Shoe Carnival (SCVL)
NASDAQ:SCVL
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Shoe Carnival
(NASDAQ:SCVL)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▲(3.23% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is held back primarily by cooling fundamentals (lower margins/returns and weaker free-cash-flow conversion) and bearish price momentum (downtrend across key moving averages with negative MACD). Partially offsetting these are a supportive valuation with a solid dividend and an earnings outlook that includes cost savings and an inventory drawdown plan, though FY26 guidance still implies meaningful margin and EPS pressure and elevated execution risk.
Positive Factors
Strong balance sheet and liquidity
A debt-free balance sheet with sizable cash and available revolver provides durable financial flexibility. It supports dividends, buybacks, inventory normalization and targeted investments during a transitional year, reducing bankruptcy and refinancing risk and enabling tactical responses to retail cycles.
Negative Factors
Weakening revenue and compressed margins
A multi-year trend of declining sales and materially compressed net margins weakens intrinsic earnings power. Persistent top-line softness and lower profitability constrain reinvestment, depress returns on equity, and raise the bar for SG&A cuts to sustainably restore historical profitability levels.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong balance sheet and liquidity
A debt-free balance sheet with sizable cash and available revolver provides durable financial flexibility. It supports dividends, buybacks, inventory normalization and targeted investments during a transitional year, reducing bankruptcy and refinancing risk and enabling tactical responses to retail cycles.
Read all positive factors
Shoe Carnival (SCVL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$499.12M
Dividend Yield3.12%
Average Volume (3M)619.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth-6.22%
EPS Growth-22.81%
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.33
Shares Outstanding27,469,570
10 Day Avg. Volume451,877
30 Day Avg. Volume619,563
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.33
Price to Book (P/B)0.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio19.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.86
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.00Price Target Upside16.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.13B
Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company offers range of dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children; and v...
How the Company Makes Money
Shoe Carnival primarily makes money by selling footwear and related accessories directly to consumers through its retail stores and online channels, recognizing revenue at the point of sale (in-store) or upon fulfillment/shipment (e-commerce). Its...
Shoe Carnival Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across different product categories or customer groups, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Breaks down sales across different product categories or customer groups, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyShoe Carnival Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: the company has strong financial foundations (debt-free balance sheet, $130.7M cash, multi-year margin track record), clear corrective actions (slowed rebanners, targeted conversions, inventory reduction plan, and meaningful SG&A savings), and durable growth pockets (Shoe Station and e-commerce). However, near-term pressures are material — FY25 sales declines, variability and underperformance in many rebanner stores, elevated inventory requiring promotional clearance, and a FY26 EPS and margin step-down driven by tariff timing and markdowns. Management frames FY26 as a transition year with expectations of normalization in FY27. Given the mix of clear strengths and substantial near-term operational headwinds, the overall tone is cautiously neutral.Positive Updates
Strong Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Ended fiscal 2025 debt-free for the 21st consecutive year with $130.7 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities (≈6% increase vs prior year) and $100 million of available revolving credit.
Negative Updates
Top-Line Pressure and Comparable Store Sales Declines
Full year net sales were $1.135 billion, down 5.6% YoY; full-year comparable store sales declined 5.6%. Q4 net sales of $254.1 million were down 3.4% YoY and Q4 comparable store sales declined 3.5%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Ended fiscal 2025 debt-free for the 21st consecutive year with $130.7 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities (≈6% increase vs prior year) and $100 million of available revolving credit.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Shoe Carnival's fiscal 2026 guidance calls for net sales down 1% to up 1% versus fiscal 2025, comparable-store sales that decline in H1 and improve in H2 (with full‑year comps expected to be better than FY25’s -5.6%), gross profit margin of roughly 34% (about a 260‑basis‑point decline from FY25’s 36.6%), SG&A savings of approximately $12–14 million versus FY25, operating income of about $47–55 million and EPS of $1.40–1.60 (ex‑CEO transition costs) assuming a ~26% tax rate; planned rebanner activity is reduced to ~21 conversions before back‑to‑school with total rebanner P&L investment of $10–15 million and rebanner capex of $5–7 million, inventory begins FY26 near $440 million (up ~14% YoY) with a targeted reduction of $50–65 million (largely in H1) that will create near‑term margin pressure but is expected to materially increase operating cash flow, while the balance sheet remains strong with $130.7 million in cash, no debt, a $100 million revolver and $50 million of repurchase authorization remaining; quarterly dividend raised to $0.17 per share (payable 4/20/26), marking 12 consecutive years of increases (CAGR ~15.5%) and 56 consecutive quarters of dividends.Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.14B | 1.20B | 1.18B | 1.26B | 1.33B |
| Gross Profit | 415.15M | 428.79M | 421.77M | 468.16M | 526.79M |
| EBITDA | 101.08M | 128.87M | 125.22M | 218.38M | 269.44M |
| Net Income | 52.27M | 73.77M | 73.35M | 110.07M | 154.88M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.20B | 1.12B | 1.04B | 989.78M | 812.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 130.73M | 123.11M | 111.25M | 62.97M | 132.40M |
| Total Debt | 371.43M | 367.99M | 354.34M | 343.23M | 246.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 512.08M | 475.14M | 458.64M | 464.21M | 359.73M |
| Stockholders Equity | 689.67M | 649.00M | 583.39M | 525.57M | 452.53M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 26.58M | 69.48M | 66.47M | -26.86M | 116.51M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 71.30M | 102.64M | 122.76M | 50.44M | 147.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -44.02M | -77.67M | -54.64M | -74.03M | -119.25M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.87M | -15.29M | -20.49M | -42.48M | -17.73M |
Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis
Positive
18.89
Price Trends
18.42
Positive
18.22
Positive
19.17
Negative
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
62.28
Neutral
87.84
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.97, above the 50-day MA of 18.42, and below the 200-day MA of 19.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.84 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SCVL.
Shoe Carnival Risk Analysis
Shoe Carnival disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shoe Carnival reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $2.72B | 11.34 | 45.18% | 6.82% | 4.67% | 3.46% | |
66 Neutral | $4.80B | 16.51 | 18.28% | ― | 17.82% | 34.88% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $364.29M | 22.59 | 2.52% | ― | 2.76% | 96.01% | |
56 Neutral | $499.12M | 9.96 | 8.72% | 3.12% | -6.22% | -22.81% | |
54 Neutral | $3.24B | 11.22 | 12.12% | 2.09% | -1.15% | -0.98% | |
51 Neutral | $370.16M | -37.20 | -2.97% | 2.68% | -5.16% | -3394.48% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SCVL
Shoe Carnival
18.89
2.67
16.49%
AEO
American Eagle
19.42
9.03
86.87%
BKE
Buckle
54.62
23.32
74.52%
DBI
Designer Brands
7.69
5.19
207.97%
GCO
Genesco
36.00
16.82
87.70%
BOOT
Boot Barn
163.09
73.96
82.98%
Shoe Carnival Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Shoe Carnival Revamps Executive Pay With Interim CEO Package
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Shoe Carnival’s board compensation committee approved a new pay package for Clifton E. Sifford tied to his role as interim president and chief executive officer, effective February 24, 2026, while he continues as executive ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Shoe Carnival Names Interim CEO Amid Leadership Transition
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 24, 2026, Shoe Carnival’s board appointed veteran executive and current vice chairman Clifton E. (Cliff) Sifford as interim president and chief executive officer, while he continues to serve as vice chairman. He replaces Mark J. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.