Shoe Carnival (SCVL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $571.32M
• Dividend Yield: 2.73%
• Average Volume (3M): 357.08K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.15
• Revenue Growth: -1.24%
• EPS Growth: -11.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 79
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 27,335,733
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 384,360
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 357,085
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.35
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.49
• 1Y Price Target: $21.00
• Price Target Upside: 0.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $23.00 ▲(10.05% Upside)

Shoe Carnival's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with strong valuation metrics. The company's strategic initiatives and debt-free status provide a positive outlook, despite challenges with declining sales in certain segments. Technical indicators suggest limited momentum, but the attractive valuation and strategic growth plans offer potential upside.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Shoe Station stores comped positive, and Rogan sales and margins exceeded SCVL's internal plan in both 4Q24 and FY24.

Rebranding Strategy

The plan to convert 80% of the store fleet to Shoe Station stores is a wise one.

Store Expansion

The plan is to have over 340 Shoe Station stores by March 2027, as compared to the old plan for 218.

Negative Factors

Guidance and Consumer Trends

Cautious FY25 guidance is likely due to the Shoe Carnival banner's reliance on Hispanic consumers, who are experiencing pressures from government policies and inflation.

Product Performance

Boot business was weak, especially in Shoe Carnival stores, and was expected to continue weak for the 4Q24, negatively impacting SSS.

Sales Performance

Shoe Carnival's observed sales growth for the second quarter was negative and slightly worse than the first quarter.

Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Shoe Carnival, Inc. is a leading retailer of footwear and accessories in the United States, specializing in athletic and casual shoes for men, women, and children. Founded in 1978 and headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, the company operates a chain of over 400 stores across the country and offers an extensive selection of popular brands. In addition to its physical stores, Shoe Carnival also provides an online shopping platform, enhancing its reach and customer convenience. The company is known for its promotional events, including sales and discounts, which attract a diverse customer base.

How the Company Makes Money

Shoe Carnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of footwear and related accessories in its retail stores and online. The company employs a value-driven pricing strategy, regularly offering promotions and discounts to stimulate sales and attract customers. Key revenue streams include direct sales from physical locations, e-commerce transactions, and exclusive brand partnerships that may offer higher profit margins. Additionally, Shoe Carnival's loyalty program encourages repeat purchases, providing a consistent revenue flow. Seasonal promotions and back-to-school sales are particularly significant, as they contribute substantially to overall sales volume. The company's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and trends in the footwear market also plays a crucial role in sustaining its earnings.

Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Shoe Carnival shows a stable financial position with strong equity ratios and positive cash flows. Despite recent revenue and profitability declines, the company maintains a healthy balance sheet.

Income Statement

Shoe Carnival's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is healthy at 35.4%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 5.6% due to declining revenue and lower EBIT margins. Revenue growth has been negative recently, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively strong with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.56, reflecting moderate leverage. The equity ratio is solid at 57.3%, indicating a strong equity base. However, total debt has increased over the years, which could pose future risks if revenue does not stabilize.

Cash Flow

Cash flows are stable with a positive free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.60 in the TTM period. Operating cash flow remains positive, providing a cushion against earnings fluctuations. The free cash flow growth rate has declined recently, but overall cash generation remains robust.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.18B	1.20B	1.18B	1.26B	1.33B	976.76M
Gross Profit	417.77M	428.79M	421.39M	468.16M	526.79M	279.98M
EBITDA	118.90M	128.87M	125.22M	169.64M	269.44M	80.08M
Net Income	65.82M	73.77M	73.35M	110.07M	154.88M	15.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.14B	1.12B	1.04B	989.78M	812.26M	642.75M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	92.95M	123.11M	111.25M	62.97M	132.40M	106.53M
Total Debt	365.34M	367.99M	354.34M	343.23M	246.35M	231.42M
Total Liabilities	486.58M	475.14M	458.64M	464.21M	359.73M	332.57M
Stockholders Equity	653.58M	649.00M	583.39M	525.57M	452.53M	310.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	39.63M	69.48M	66.47M	-26.86M	116.51M	51.00M
Operating Cash Flow	75.94M	102.64M	122.76M	50.44M	147.89M	63.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-36.91M	-77.67M	-54.64M	-74.03M	-119.25M	-12.09M
Financing Cash Flow	-17.48M	-15.29M	-20.49M	-42.48M	-17.73M	-6.67M

Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 20.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.95, above the 50-day MA of 20.76, and below the 200-day MA of 23.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SCVL.

Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BOOT	76 Outperform	$5.43B	28.05	18.15%	―	16.70%	27.76%
AEO	74 Outperform	$2.24B	13.24	12.19%	3.86%	-0.95%	-10.51%
SCVL	73 Outperform	$571.32M	8.74	10.52%	2.73%	-1.24%	-11.02%
CRI	64 Neutral	$1.04B	7.59	15.95%	7.35%	-1.46%	-41.93%
GCO	62 Neutral	$344.71M	―	-4.81%	―	2.66%	-4772.54%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.64B	14.17	-5.23%	3.04%	1.43%	-15.11%
FL	46 Neutral	$2.36B	194.63	-14.06%	―	-3.58%	―

Shoe Carnival Corporate Events

Shoe Carnival Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting

On June 25, 2025, Shoe Carnival, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where key decisions were made. Directors were elected for three-year terms, executive compensation was approved in an advisory vote, and Deloitte & Touche LLP’s appointment as the independent accounting firm for fiscal 2025 was ratified, indicating continued stability and strategic direction for the company.

Shoe Carnival Chair’s Spouse Donates Significant Shares

On June 12, 2025, Delores B. Weaver, spouse of Shoe Carnival‘s Chairman, gifted 166,666 shares of the company’s common stock to a donor-advised charitable gift fund as part of her estate planning. This move, filed with the SEC on June 13, 2025, highlights Mrs. Weaver’s ongoing commitment to philanthropy, as she plans to continue donating shares over the coming years, potentially impacting the company’s shareholder structure.