Shoe Carnival (SCVL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $552.70M
• Dividend Yield: 3.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 619.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: -6.22%
• EPS Growth: -22.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.53
• Shares Outstanding: 27,374,968
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 451,877
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 619,563
• PEG Ratio: 8.93
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.96
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.06
• 1Y Price Target: $22.00
• Price Target Upside: 8.96% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.53
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.12B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $23.00 ▲(13.92% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/26/26

The score is driven primarily by pressured fundamentals (declining revenue and margin contraction) balanced by a stable balance sheet and positive free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with price trading above key moving averages and positive MACD. Valuation is a key positive with a low P/E and solid dividend yield, while the earnings outlook is mixed due to near-term investment and expected fiscal 2026 pressures.

Positive Factors

Shoe Station growth

Shoe Station's outsized same-banner growth and 260bps margin expansion signal a durable mix shift toward higher-margin, premium customers. As the company converts stores to this banner, sustained margin improvement and mix-driven revenue stability are likely over the next 2–3 years.

Debt-free balance sheet

A debt-free balance sheet with substantial cash provides durable financial flexibility to fund store rebanners, inventory and working capital without raising leverage. This reduces solvency risk and supports strategic investments through economic cycles.

Shareholder returns & buyback

A sizable repurchase program plus an ongoing dividend shows disciplined capital allocation and confidence in cash generation. These actions preserve shareholder value and signal management commitment to returning free cash flow while maintaining operational reinvestment.

Negative Factors

Revenue and margin pressure

A multi-quarter revenue decline and contracting profitability metrics point to structural demand or mix challenges. If persistent, weaker top-line and margin compression constrain reinvestment capacity and reduce earnings power over the medium term absent a successful strategic pivot.

Underperforming Shoe Carnival banner

The legacy Shoe Carnival banner's ongoing sales weakness, concentrated among lower-income shoppers, risks sustained revenue attrition. Shifting consumer budgets could require deeper promotions or markdowns, pressuring margins and slowing recovery even as rebanners progress.

Investment-driven near-term earnings pressure

Planned rebanner and transformation investments will depress near-term profitability via clearance inventory and higher SG&A. If conversion benefits take longer to materialize, persistent margin headwinds could strain cash conversion and delay return on invested capital.

Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company offers range of dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children; and various accessories. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 372 stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico under the Shoe Carnival banner; and 21 locations across the Southeast under the Shoe Station banner. The company also sells its products through online shopping at shoecarnival.com, as well as through mobile application. Shoe Carnival, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Shoe Carnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of footwear and related accessories in its retail stores and online. The company’s revenue model is built around offering a diverse selection of brands at competitive prices, appealing to budget-conscious consumers. Key revenue streams include in-store sales, e-commerce transactions, and promotional events that drive foot traffic. The company has established partnerships with various footwear brands, allowing it to offer exclusive products and promotions. Additionally, Shoe Carnival benefits from its customer loyalty program, which encourages repeat purchases. Seasonal promotions and sales events also play a significant role in boosting sales, contributing to overall revenue growth.

Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials show pressure: declining revenue trend and weaker net/EBIT/EBITDA margins. Balance sheet leverage appears manageable with a stable capital structure, but ROE has decreased. Cash flow is positive with free cash flow growth, though cash conversion (operating cash flow vs. net income) has weakened.

Income Statement

Shoe Carnival's income statement shows a decline in revenue growth with a negative trend in the TTM period. The gross profit margin remains stable, but the net profit margin has decreased compared to previous periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also contracted, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity has decreased over time, suggesting reduced profitability. The equity ratio remains stable, showing a balanced capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate in the TTM period, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, indicating potential challenges in converting income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, suggesting room for improvement in cash generation efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022	Jan 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.14B	1.20B	1.18B	1.26B	1.33B	976.76M
Gross Profit	418.09M	428.79M	421.77M	468.16M	526.79M	279.98M
EBITDA	101.93M	128.87M	125.22M	218.38M	269.44M	80.08M
Net Income	57.88M	73.77M	73.35M	110.07M	154.88M	15.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.17B	1.12B	1.04B	989.78M	812.26M	642.75M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	107.66M	123.11M	111.25M	62.97M	132.40M	106.53M
Total Debt	362.79M	367.99M	354.34M	343.23M	246.35M	231.42M
Total Liabilities	489.36M	475.14M	458.64M	464.21M	359.73M	332.57M
Stockholders Equity	683.18M	649.00M	583.39M	525.57M	452.53M	310.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	35.09M	69.48M	66.47M	-26.86M	116.51M	51.00M
Operating Cash Flow	81.81M	102.64M	122.76M	50.44M	147.89M	63.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-46.27M	-77.67M	-54.64M	-74.03M	-119.25M	-12.09M
Financing Cash Flow	-18.40M	-15.29M	-20.49M	-42.48M	-17.73M	-6.67M

Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.19
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.26, above the 50-day MA of 19.19, and above the 200-day MA of 19.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SCVL.

Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BKE	79 Outperform	$2.74B	13.15	41.26%	6.82%	4.67%	3.46%
AEO	74 Outperform	$4.16B	21.21	12.36%	2.09%	-1.15%	-0.98%
BOOT	73 Outperform	$5.76B	26.57	18.45%	―	17.82%	34.88%
SCVL	71 Outperform	$552.70M	9.60	8.78%	3.12%	-6.22%	-22.81%
GCO	63 Neutral	$293.99M	-147.88	-0.13%	―	2.76%	96.01%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DBI	51 Neutral	$353.41M	-12.14	-8.61%	2.68%	-5.16%	-3394.48%

Shoe Carnival Corporate Events

Shoe Carnival Names Interim CEO Amid Leadership Transition

On February 24, 2026, Shoe Carnival’s board appointed veteran executive and current vice chairman Clifton E. (Cliff) Sifford as interim president and chief executive officer, while he continues to serve as vice chairman. He replaces Mark J. Worden, who on the same date departed the president and CEO roles and resigned from the board, with the company stating his exit did not stem from any disagreement over operations, policies or practices.

Sifford, who has held multiple senior leadership posts at Shoe Carnival since 1997, including prior stints as president and CEO, returns to the top job as the company launches a search for a permanent successor and continues its transformation strategy. Alongside the leadership change, Shoe Carnival reported preliminary fiscal 2025 net sales of $1.135 billion and expected diluted earnings per share of $1.90, slightly above consensus, and highlighted a debt-free balance sheet with more than $130 million in cash and marketable securities, underscoring operational resilience for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SCVL) stock is a Buy with a $23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shoe Carnival stock, see the SCVL Stock Forecast page.

Shoe Carnival Announces New Share Repurchase Program

On December 10, 2025, Shoe Carnival, Inc.’s Board of Directors authorized a new share repurchase program for up to $50 million of its common stock, effective January 1, 2026, replacing the existing program set to expire on December 31, 2025. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on January 26, 2026. These financial moves reflect Shoe Carnival’s commitment to shareholder returns and its strategic focus on expanding its Shoe Station banner, aiming to grow it to over half of its stores by the Back-to-School season in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SCVL) stock is a Hold with a $18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shoe Carnival stock, see the SCVL Stock Forecast page.

Shoe Carnival Appoints New Senior Vice President

On December 7, 2025, Shoe Carnival, Inc. announced the appointment of Patrick C. Edwards as the Senior Vice President, Controller and Treasurer. This transition included a change in his annual base salary to $325,000, reflecting his new responsibilities within the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (SCVL) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shoe Carnival stock, see the SCVL Stock Forecast page.