Shoe Carnival (SCVL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $520.75M
• Dividend Yield: 3.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 460.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: -1.24%
• EPS Growth: -11.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 27,335,733
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 462,435
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 460,678
• PEG Ratio: 0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.68
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.36
• 1Y Price Target: $21.00
• Price Target Upside: 10.24% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $21.00 ▲(10.24%Upside)

Shoe Carnival's strong valuation and financial stability are key strengths, supported by robust cash flows and a solid balance sheet. The technical analysis indicates some caution with longer-term trends, and the earnings call presents a mixed picture with growth potential in Shoe Station but challenges in the core brand.

Positive Factors

Profit Increase

After year-2, a store re-bannered from Shoe Carnival to Shoe Station is expected to realize a 20% increase in store profits.

Sales Performance

Shoe Station stores comped positive, and Rogan sales and margins exceeded SCVL's internal plan in both 4Q24 and FY24.

Store Repositioning

The plan to re-banner 175 Shoe Carnival stores to Shoe Station stores over the next 2-years promises a strategic shift towards a more affluent consumer base.

Negative Factors

Boot Business Weakness

Boot business was weak, especially in Shoe Carnival stores, and was expected to continue weak for the 4Q24, negatively impacting SSS.

Consumer Base Pressure

Cautious FY25 guidance is likely due to the Shoe Carnival banner's reliance on Hispanic consumers, who are experiencing pressures from government policies and inflation.

Same Store Sales

1Q25 Same Store Sales decreased 8.1%, highlighting the need for expansion of Shoe Station.

Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL) is a leading family footwear retailer in the United States, offering a diverse range of shoes for men, women, and children. The company operates in the retail sector, focusing on providing a unique shopping experience through its open floor plans and friendly customer service. Shoe Carnival's core products include a wide variety of brand-name athletic, casual, and dress shoes, as well as accessories such as handbags, socks, and shoe care products.

How the Company Makes Money

Shoe Carnival makes money primarily through the sale of footwear and related accessories in its retail stores and through its online platform. The company's revenue model is based on direct sales to consumers, leveraging its extensive network of physical stores across the U.S. and its e-commerce site to reach a broad customer base. Key revenue streams include sales from athletic and casual footwear, which are particularly popular among its offerings. Additionally, Shoe Carnival benefits from its strategic partnerships with well-known footwear brands, allowing it to offer a wide range of high-demand products. Factors such as seasonal promotions, customer loyalty programs, and an engaging in-store experience also contribute to the company's earnings by driving foot traffic and encouraging repeat business.

Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Shoe Carnival shows a stable financial position with strong equity ratios and positive cash flows. Despite recent revenue and profitability declines, the company maintains a healthy balance sheet.

Income Statement

Shoe Carnival's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is healthy at 35.4%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 5.6% due to declining revenue and lower EBIT margins. Revenue growth has been negative recently, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively strong with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.56, reflecting moderate leverage. The equity ratio is solid at 57.3%, indicating a strong equity base. However, total debt has increased over the years, which could pose future risks if revenue does not stabilize.

Cash Flow

Cash flows are stable with a positive free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.60 in the TTM period. Operating cash flow remains positive, providing a cushion against earnings fluctuations. The free cash flow growth rate has declined recently, but overall cash generation remains robust.

Breakdown
TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.18B	1.20B	1.18B	1.26B	1.33B	976.76M
	Gross Profit
417.77M	428.79M	421.39M	468.16M	526.79M	279.98M
	EBIT
80.61M	91.15M	95.58M	146.44M	207.65M	21.86M
	EBITDA
118.90M	128.87M	125.22M	169.64M	269.44M	80.08M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
65.82M	73.77M	73.35M	110.07M	154.88M	15.99M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
92.95M	123.11M	111.25M	62.97M	132.40M	106.53M
	Total Assets
1.14B	1.12B	1.04B	989.78M	812.26M	642.75M
	Total Debt
365.34M	367.99M	354.34M	343.23M	246.35M	231.42M
	Net Debt
286.87M	259.31M	255.34M	291.86M	128.91M	124.88M
	Total Liabilities
486.58M	475.14M	458.64M	464.21M	359.73M	332.57M
	Stockholders Equity
653.58M	649.00M	583.39M	525.57M	452.53M	310.18M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
39.63M	69.48M	66.47M	-26.86M	116.51M	51.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
75.94M	102.64M	122.76M	50.44M	147.89M	63.40M
	Investing Cash Flow
-36.91M	-77.67M	-54.64M	-74.03M	-119.25M	-12.09M
	Financing Cash Flow
-17.48M	-15.29M	-20.49M	-42.48M	-17.73M	-6.67M

Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 19.05
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.51, above the 50-day MA of 18.81, and below the 200-day MA of 28.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SCVL.

Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SCVL	73 Outperform	$520.75M	7.97	10.52%	3.15%	-1.24%	-11.02%
BOOT	68 Neutral	$4.81B	26.82	17.44%	―	14.64%	21.68%
CRI	67 Neutral	$1.13B	6.89	18.91%	3.21%	-3.39%	-28.96%
AEO	64 Neutral	$1.61B	9.53	12.19%	5.37%	-0.95%	-10.51%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.82B	11.05	2.80%	4.32%	2.67%	-24.92%
FL	56 Neutral	$2.29B	194.63	-12.85%	―	-2.62%	0.93%
GCO	49 Neutral	$219.56M	―	-3.07%	―	1.85%	22.34%

Shoe Carnival Corporate Events

Shoe Carnival Chair’s Spouse Donates Significant Shares

On June 12, 2025, Delores B. Weaver, spouse of Shoe Carnival‘s Chairman, gifted 166,666 shares of the company’s common stock to a donor-advised charitable gift fund as part of her estate planning. This move, filed with the SEC on June 13, 2025, highlights Mrs. Weaver’s ongoing commitment to philanthropy, as she plans to continue donating shares over the coming years, potentially impacting the company’s shareholder structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (SCVL) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shoe Carnival stock, see the SCVL Stock Forecast page.

Shoe Carnival Sets 2025 Bonus Performance Criteria

On March 12, 2025, Shoe Carnival’s Compensation Committee set the performance criteria for the fiscal 2025 bonus, based on operating income, with payouts ranging from 25% to 175% of target bonuses. Additionally, the committee granted restricted stock units and performance stock units under the 2017 Equity Plan, with vesting conditions tied to the company’s net income per diluted share and continuous service through 2028.