Shoe Carnival (SCVL)
NASDAQ:SCVL
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Shoe Carnival
(NASDAQ:SCVL)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
▼(-12.65% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/21/26
SCVL scores in the mid-range primarily due to weakening operating performance (sharp TTM revenue decline and thinner margins) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partly offset by a solid financial foundation (stronger balance-sheet profile and positive cash flow), supportive valuation (P/E ~14.4 and ~3.9% dividend yield), and an earnings call that reaffirmed guidance while acknowledging near-term margin and demand pressures.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Shoe Carnival’s debt-free balance sheet and ~$129M of liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to fund inventory resets, cover one-time charges, and sustain dividends/repurchases. This conserves runway for the 2–6 month turnaround while limiting refinancing and leverage risks.
Negative Factors
Steep Revenue Decline
A near-term 46.8% TTM revenue decline reflects meaningful demand loss and merchandising missteps that materially erode the revenue base. Restoring unit volumes and customer mix will take multiple quarters, constraining margin expansion and ROE until assortment and traffic recover.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Shoe Carnival’s debt-free balance sheet and ~$129M of liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to fund inventory resets, cover one-time charges, and sustain dividends/repurchases. This conserves runway for the 2–6 month turnaround while limiting refinancing and leverage risks.
Read all positive factors
Shoe Carnival Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across different product categories or customer groups, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Breaks down sales across different product categories or customer groups, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability, and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyShoe Carnival (SCVL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$486.21M
Dividend Yield3.12%
Average Volume (3M)619.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.0
Beta (1Y)1.29
Revenue Growth-4.40%
EPS Growth-43.68%
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.24
Shares Outstanding27,469,570
10 Day Avg. Volume451,877
30 Day Avg. Volume619,563
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.33
Price to Book (P/B)0.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio19.59
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.49
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.00Price Target Upside16.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.13B
Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company offers range of dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children; and v...
How the Company Makes Money
Shoe Carnival primarily makes money by selling footwear and related accessories directly to consumers through its retail stores and online channels, recognizing revenue at the point of sale (in-store) or upon fulfillment/shipment (e-commerce). Its...
Shoe Carnival Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: Shoe Carnival demonstrated clear financial strength (no debt, ~$129 million in liquidity, strong operating cash flow, dividend growth and share repurchases), matched consensus on adjusted EPS, and laid out a concrete operational plan and timeline to correct merchandising and assortment issues. Offsetting these positives are comparable store sales declines, meaningful gross margin compression, material one-time charges and planned store closures, and persistent macro-driven consumer softness that will delay visible improvement until back-to-school and the fall season. Management reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance and emphasized a deliberate, cash-funded approach to fixing assortment and store performance.Positive Updates
Strong Liquidity and Debt-Free Balance Sheet
Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled $129.3 million at quarter end, an increase of approximately $36.4 million (about 39% year-over-year). The company operates with no debt, providing financial flexibility to fund strategic actions from operating cash flows.
Negative Updates
Comparable Store Sales and Banner-Level Declines
Total company comparable store sales declined 2.1% in the quarter. Shoe Carnival net sales fell 2.2% ($177.3 million) with comps down ~1.7%. Shoe Station net sales fell 3.1% ($93.4 million) with comps down ~2.9% — the first banner-level decline for Shoe Station in some time.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Liquidity and Debt-Free Balance Sheet
Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled $129.3 million at quarter end, an increase of approximately $36.4 million (about 39% year-over-year). The company operates with no debt, providing financial flexibility to fund strategic actions from operating cash flows.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Shoe Carnival reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance calling for net sales of $1.125B–$1.147B (down 1% to up 1% vs. FY25), adjusted diluted EPS of $1.40–$1.60 (excludes CEO transition and strategic‑review charges), a gross profit margin of ~34% (≈260 bps compression vs. FY25), targeted reductions in adjusted SG&A of $12M–$14M vs. FY25, and an effective adjusted tax rate of ~26%. Management noted Q1 results that supported the outlook — Q1 net sales $270.7M, total comps -2.1% (Shoe Carnival $177.3M, 65% of sales, -2.2% with comps -1.7%; Shoe Station $93.4M, 35% of sales, -3.1% with comps -2.9%), GAAP loss per share $0.21 (including $13.6M pretax charges: $5.3M CEO transition, $8.3M strategic), non‑GAAP EPS $0.23, gross margin 33.3%, cash and marketable securities ~$129M with no debt, operating cash flow up $32.7M, Q1 inventories $417.2M (plan to reduce inventories $50M–$65M by year‑end), Q1 capex ~$10.4M, and shareholder returns in Q1 of ~$12M (dividend $0.17/share, 390k shares repurchased for ~$7M, ~$43M remaining authorization); the company also outlined operational actions (12–14 store closures in FY26 and 6–10 in FY27, few rebanners over the next two years, and selective new‑store growth of 3–5 in FY27 and 8–10 in FY28).Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.13B | 1.14B | 1.20B | 1.18B | 1.26B | 1.33B |
| Gross Profit | 409.47M | 415.15M | 428.79M | 421.77M | 468.16M | 526.79M |
| EBITDA | 77.08M | 101.08M | 128.87M | 125.22M | 218.38M | 269.44M |
| Net Income | 37.30M | 52.27M | 73.77M | 73.35M | 110.07M | 154.88M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.16B | 1.20B | 1.12B | 1.04B | 989.78M | 812.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 129.35M | 130.73M | 123.11M | 111.25M | 62.97M | 132.40M |
| Total Debt | 361.20M | 371.43M | 367.99M | 354.34M | 343.23M | 246.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 485.68M | 512.08M | 475.14M | 458.64M | 464.21M | 359.73M |
| Stockholders Equity | 673.40M | 689.67M | 649.00M | 583.39M | 525.57M | 452.53M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 62.21M | 26.58M | 69.48M | 66.47M | -26.86M | 116.51M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 104.02M | 71.30M | 102.64M | 122.76M | 50.44M | 147.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -39.84M | -44.02M | -77.67M | -54.64M | -74.03M | -119.25M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -26.55M | -18.87M | -15.29M | -20.49M | -42.48M | -17.73M |
Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis
Neutral
18.89
Price Trends
17.28
Positive
18.24
Negative
18.74
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.14
Negative
55.18
Neutral
88.40
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.91, above the 50-day MA of 17.28, and above the 200-day MA of 18.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SCVL.
Shoe Carnival Risk Analysis
Shoe Carnival disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Shoe Carnival reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $2.36B | 10.49 | 47.36% | 6.82% | 7.10% | 12.26% | |
65 Neutral | $5.16B | 22.87 | 18.15% | ― | 17.93% | 24.95% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $416.63M | 11.53 | 2.52% | ― | 4.60% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $486.21M | 12.98 | 5.49% | 3.12% | -4.40% | -43.68% | |
57 Neutral | $2.65B | 9.46 | 17.24% | 2.09% | 6.22% | 65.05% | |
51 Neutral | $391.79M | -45.76 | -2.97% | 2.68% | -3.87% | 39.59% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SCVL
Shoe Carnival
17.70
-1.01
-5.42%
AEO
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15.80
5.71
56.58%
BKE
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45.87
6.63
16.89%
DBI
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7.72
4.51
140.35%
GCO
Genesco
38.37
17.06
80.06%
BOOT
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169.87
12.36
7.85%
Shoe Carnival Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Shoe Carnival Revamps Executive Pay With Interim CEO Package
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 3, 2026, Shoe Carnival’s board compensation committee approved a new pay package for Clifton E. Sifford tied to his role as interim president and chief executive officer, effective February 24, 2026, while he continues as executive ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Shoe Carnival Names Interim CEO Amid Leadership Transition
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
On February 24, 2026, Shoe Carnival’s board appointed veteran executive and current vice chairman Clifton E. (Cliff) Sifford as interim president and chief executive officer, while he continues to serve as vice chairman. He replaces Mark J. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.