Shoe Carnival (SCVL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $587.97M
• Dividend Yield: 2.65%
• Average Volume (3M): 472.89K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.15
• Revenue Growth: -6.42%
• EPS Growth: -19.27%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.70
• Shares Outstanding: 27,372,822
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 410,542
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 472,891
• PEG Ratio: 8.93
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.66
• 1Y Price Target: $22.00
• Price Target Upside: 2.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $23.50 ▲(9.40% Upside)

Shoe Carnival's overall score reflects strong earnings performance and valuation, offset by challenges in financial performance and technical indicators. The company's strategic focus on premium brands and disciplined pricing is promising, but operational efficiency and inventory management need improvement.

Positive Factors

Margin Expansion

The significant margin expansion indicates improved operational efficiency and pricing strategy, enhancing long-term profitability and competitiveness.

Rebanner Strategy

The successful rebanner strategy reflects a strategic shift towards higher-margin stores, potentially increasing market share and profitability over time.

Strong Financial Position

A strong financial position with substantial cash reserves and no debt provides flexibility for strategic investments and resilience against economic downturns.

Negative Factors

Decline in Shoe Carnival Sales

The decline in sales indicates challenges in maintaining customer engagement and market share, potentially impacting revenue and profitability if not addressed.

Excess Inventory Levels

High inventory levels can lead to increased holding costs and potential markdowns, affecting cash flow and profit margins if not effectively managed.

Impact of Rebanner Investments on EPS

While strategic, the rebanner investments are currently impacting earnings, which could pressure short-term financial performance until benefits materialize.

Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company offers range of dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children; and various accessories. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 372 stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico under the Shoe Carnival banner; and 21 locations across the Southeast under the Shoe Station banner. The company also sells its products through online shopping at shoecarnival.com, as well as through mobile application. Shoe Carnival, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Shoe Carnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of footwear and related accessories in its retail stores and online. The company employs a value-driven pricing strategy, regularly offering promotions and discounts to stimulate sales and attract customers. Key revenue streams include direct sales from physical locations, e-commerce transactions, and exclusive brand partnerships that may offer higher profit margins. Additionally, Shoe Carnival's loyalty program encourages repeat purchases, providing a consistent revenue flow. Seasonal promotions and back-to-school sales are particularly significant, as they contribute substantially to overall sales volume. The company's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and trends in the footwear market also plays a crucial role in sustaining its earnings.

Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Shoe Carnival's financial statements indicate challenges in revenue growth and operational efficiency, with declining margins and cash flow metrics. However, the balance sheet remains relatively strong with moderate leverage and a solid equity position.

Income Statement

Shoe Carnival's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 2.23%, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. Gross profit margin stands at 36.11%, which is healthy but has decreased from previous periods. Net profit margin is at 5.41%, showing profitability but also a decline from prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity is 9.58%, showing a reasonable return for shareholders, although it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns with a significant decline in free cash flow growth by 40.27% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.49, indicating that cash generation from operations is lower compared to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, suggesting limited cash available after capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.15B	1.20B	1.18B	1.26B	1.33B	976.76M
Gross Profit	416.64M	428.79M	421.39M	468.16M	526.79M	279.98M
EBITDA	107.10M	128.87M	125.22M	169.64M	269.44M	80.08M
Net Income	62.48M	73.77M	73.35M	110.07M	154.88M	15.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.17B	1.12B	1.04B	989.78M	812.26M	642.75M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	91.92M	123.11M	111.25M	62.97M	132.40M	106.53M
Total Debt	361.58M	367.99M	354.34M	343.23M	246.35M	231.42M
Total Liabilities	494.56M	475.14M	458.64M	464.21M	359.73M	332.57M
Stockholders Equity	670.69M	649.00M	583.39M	525.57M	452.53M	310.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	23.67M	69.48M	66.47M	-26.86M	116.51M	51.00M
Operating Cash Flow	65.52M	102.64M	122.76M	50.44M	147.89M	63.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-40.47M	-77.67M	-54.64M	-74.03M	-119.25M	-12.09M
Financing Cash Flow	-17.96M	-15.29M	-20.49M	-42.48M	-17.73M	-6.67M

Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.48
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.87, below the 50-day MA of 21.82, and below the 200-day MA of 22.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SCVL.

Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BKE	81 Outperform	3.06B	14.73	46.12%	6.52%	1.62%	-2.57%
BOOT	76 Outperform	5.17B	26.69	16.68%	―	16.70%	27.76%
SCVL	68 Neutral	$587.97M	9.54	9.69%	2.65%	-6.42%	-19.27%
AEO	66 Neutral	3.04B	17.14	12.76%	2.79%	-2.73%	-16.71%
DBI	58 Neutral	186.78M	-5.41	-11.31%	5.31%	-4.63%	-637.55%
GCO	57 Neutral	326.67M	-12.36	-4.37%	―	2.66%	-4772.54%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Shoe Carnival Corporate Events

Shoe Carnival Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting

On June 25, 2025, Shoe Carnival, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where key decisions were made. Directors were elected for three-year terms, executive compensation was approved in an advisory vote, and Deloitte & Touche LLP’s appointment as the independent accounting firm for fiscal 2025 was ratified, indicating continued stability and strategic direction for the company.

Shoe Carnival Chair’s Spouse Donates Significant Shares

On June 12, 2025, Delores B. Weaver, spouse of Shoe Carnival‘s Chairman, gifted 166,666 shares of the company’s common stock to a donor-advised charitable gift fund as part of her estate planning. This move, filed with the SEC on June 13, 2025, highlights Mrs. Weaver’s ongoing commitment to philanthropy, as she plans to continue donating shares over the coming years, potentially impacting the company’s shareholder structure.