Shoe Carnival (SCVL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $479.02M
• Dividend Yield: 3.34%
• Average Volume (3M): 448.80K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.25
• Revenue Growth: -6.22%
• EPS Growth: -22.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.53
• Shares Outstanding: 27,372,822
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 562,232
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 448,798
• PEG Ratio: 8.93
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.59
• 1Y Price Target: $19.00
• Price Target Upside: 8.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.82
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.14B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $18.00 ▲(2.86% Upside)

Shoe Carnival's overall stock score reflects a balanced view of its current challenges and potential. The company's strong balance sheet and strategic investments in Shoe Station are positive, but declining sales and operational efficiency are significant concerns. The stock's attractive valuation and dividend yield offer some upside potential.

Positive Factors

Strategic Shift to Shoe Station

The strategic focus on Shoe Station, with its higher-income customer base and margin expansion, positions the company for sustainable growth and improved profitability.

Debt-Free Balance Sheet

A debt-free balance sheet provides financial flexibility to invest in growth initiatives and withstand economic downturns, supporting long-term stability.

Successful Store Rebanner Strategy

The successful rebanner strategy enhances brand consistency and operational efficiency, expected to yield $20 million in annual cost savings and free up $100 million in working capital.

Negative Factors

Declining Shoe Carnival Sales

Declining sales at Shoe Carnival indicate challenges in appealing to lower-income consumers, potentially affecting overall revenue and market position.

Overall Net Sales Decline

A decline in overall net sales reflects challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could impact future revenue growth and market competitiveness.

Rebanner Investments Impact Earnings

While rebanner investments are strategic, their short-term impact on earnings may pressure profitability, requiring careful management to balance growth and earnings.

Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Shoe Carnival, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a family footwear retailer in the United States. The company offers range of dress, casual, work, and athletic shoes, as well as sandals and boots for men, women, and children; and various accessories. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 372 stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico under the Shoe Carnival banner; and 21 locations across the Southeast under the Shoe Station banner. The company also sells its products through online shopping at shoecarnival.com, as well as through mobile application. Shoe Carnival, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Shoe Carnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of footwear and related accessories in its retail stores and online. The company’s revenue model is built around offering a diverse selection of brands at competitive prices, appealing to budget-conscious consumers. Key revenue streams include in-store sales, e-commerce transactions, and promotional events that drive foot traffic. The company has established partnerships with various footwear brands, allowing it to offer exclusive products and promotions. Additionally, Shoe Carnival benefits from its customer loyalty program, which encourages repeat purchases. Seasonal promotions and sales events also play a significant role in boosting sales, contributing to overall revenue growth.

Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Shoe Carnival's financial statements indicate challenges in revenue growth and operational efficiency, with declining margins and cash flow metrics. However, the balance sheet remains relatively strong with moderate leverage and a solid equity position.

Income Statement

Shoe Carnival's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 2.23%, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. Gross profit margin stands at 36.11%, which is healthy but has decreased from previous periods. Net profit margin is at 5.41%, showing profitability but also a decline from prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity is 9.58%, showing a reasonable return for shareholders, although it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns with a significant decline in free cash flow growth by 40.27% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.49, indicating that cash generation from operations is lower compared to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, suggesting limited cash available after capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.15B	1.20B	1.18B	1.26B	1.33B	976.76M
Gross Profit	416.64M	428.79M	421.39M	468.16M	526.79M	279.98M
EBITDA	115.53M	128.87M	125.22M	169.64M	269.44M	80.08M
Net Income	62.48M	73.77M	73.35M	110.07M	154.88M	15.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.17B	1.12B	1.04B	989.78M	812.26M	642.75M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	91.92M	123.11M	111.25M	62.97M	132.40M	106.53M
Total Debt	361.58M	367.99M	354.34M	343.23M	246.35M	231.42M
Total Liabilities	494.56M	475.14M	458.64M	464.21M	359.73M	332.57M
Stockholders Equity	670.69M	649.00M	583.39M	525.57M	452.53M	310.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	23.67M	69.48M	66.47M	-26.86M	116.51M	51.00M
Operating Cash Flow	65.52M	102.64M	122.76M	50.44M	147.89M	63.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-40.47M	-77.67M	-54.64M	-74.03M	-119.25M	-12.09M
Financing Cash Flow	-17.96M	-15.29M	-20.49M	-42.48M	-17.73M	-6.67M

Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 17.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 17.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.86, below the 50-day MA of 18.81, and below the 200-day MA of 20.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SCVL.

Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BOOT	77 Outperform	$5.92B	28.71	18.74%	―	17.82%	34.88%
BKE	76 Outperform	$2.88B	13.81	41.26%	6.93%	4.67%	3.46%
AEO	72 Outperform	$3.60B	20.46	12.36%	2.40%	-1.15%	-0.98%
SCVL	65 Neutral	$479.02M	8.33	8.78%	3.34%	-6.22%	-22.81%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
GCO	57 Neutral	$382.16M	―	-4.81%	―	2.66%	-4772.54%
DBI	51 Neutral	$209.57M	―	-9.98%	4.59%	-4.63%	-637.55%

Shoe Carnival Corporate Events

Shoe Carnival’s Strategic Shift Boosts Q3 Performance

Shoe Carnival, Inc. is a prominent retailer in the footwear industry, offering a wide range of shoes and accessories for families across the United States and Puerto Rico. The company operates under the Shoe Carnival and Shoe Station banners and is known for its emphasis on national name brands.

Shoe Carnival Appoints New CFO Amid Expansion Plans

Shoe Carnival announced the appointment of W. Kerry Jackson as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective September 28, 2025. Jackson, who rejoined the company in June 2025 as Senior Vice President of New Business Development after retiring in May 2023, previously served as the company’s CFO for 27 years. This transition is part of Shoe Carnival’s strategic plan to expand its store count and strengthen its market position, as evidenced by the recent grand opening of its 100th Shoe Station store, with plans to exceed 215 stores by July 2026. Patrick C. Edwards, the current CFO, will transition to the role of Senior Vice President, Special Projects, and Treasurer.

The most recent analyst rating on (SCVL) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shoe Carnival stock, see the SCVL Stock Forecast page.

Shoe Carnival Reports Strong Q2 Earnings and Growth Strategy

Shoe Carnival, Inc. is a prominent retailer in the footwear industry, offering a wide range of dress, casual, and athletic footwear for all family members, with a focus on national name brands. The company operates under the Shoe Carnival, Shoe Station, and Rogan’s store brands across 35 states and Puerto Rico.

Shoe Carnival’s Strategic Shift: Earnings Call Insights

Shoe Carnival’s recent earnings call painted a picture of a company navigating both triumphs and challenges. The sentiment was largely positive, reflecting a strong quarter bolstered by strategic initiatives like the rebanner strategy and margin growth, particularly during the back-to-school season. However, the company is not without its hurdles, facing declining sales in its Shoe Carnival segment and managing high inventory levels. Despite these challenges, Shoe Carnival’s financial standing remains robust, with strategic investments anticipated to yield long-term benefits.