Shoe Carnival (SCVL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $476.29M
• Dividend Yield: 3.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 390.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: -6.42%
• EPS Growth: -19.27%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,500
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.70
• Shares Outstanding: 27,372,822
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 425,989
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 390,003
• PEG Ratio: 8.93
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.13
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.72
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.10
• 1Y Price Target: $22.00
• Price Target Upside: 28.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.50 ▲(14.04% Upside)

Shoe Carnival's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with strong valuation metrics and positive earnings call highlights. The technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, but the stock's attractive valuation and strategic progress provide potential upside.

Positive Factors

Rebanner Strategy Success

The rebanner strategy's success in expanding Shoe Station stores supports long-term growth by diversifying the store portfolio and targeting higher-income customers, which could lead to sustained revenue and margin improvements.

Financial Position

A strong financial position with significant cash reserves and no debt enhances financial flexibility, allowing the company to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns, supporting long-term stability.

Back-to-School Sales Growth

Successful sales growth during the back-to-school season, a critical profit period, indicates effective market positioning and product appeal, contributing to sustained revenue generation and profitability.

Negative Factors

Decline in Shoe Carnival Sales

The decline in Shoe Carnival sales highlights challenges in maintaining market share and consumer demand, particularly among low-income customers, which could impact long-term revenue stability and growth.

Excess Inventory Levels

High inventory levels pose a risk of increased holding costs and potential markdowns, which can pressure margins and profitability if not managed effectively, impacting long-term financial health.

Impact of Rebanner Investments on EPS

While strategic, the rebanner investments are currently impacting EPS negatively, reflecting short-term financial strain that may affect investor perception and financial performance until benefits materialize.

Shoe Carnival Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Shoe Carnival, Inc. is a leading retailer of footwear and accessories in the United States, specializing in athletic and casual shoes for men, women, and children. Founded in 1978 and headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, the company operates a chain of over 400 stores across the country and offers an extensive selection of popular brands. In addition to its physical stores, Shoe Carnival also provides an online shopping platform, enhancing its reach and customer convenience. The company is known for its promotional events, including sales and discounts, which attract a diverse customer base.

How the Company Makes Money

Shoe Carnival generates revenue primarily through the sale of footwear and related accessories in its retail stores and online. The company employs a value-driven pricing strategy, regularly offering promotions and discounts to stimulate sales and attract customers. Key revenue streams include direct sales from physical locations, e-commerce transactions, and exclusive brand partnerships that may offer higher profit margins. Additionally, Shoe Carnival's loyalty program encourages repeat purchases, providing a consistent revenue flow. Seasonal promotions and back-to-school sales are particularly significant, as they contribute substantially to overall sales volume. The company's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and trends in the footwear market also plays a crucial role in sustaining its earnings.

Shoe Carnival Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Shoe Carnival's financial statements indicate challenges in revenue growth and operational efficiency, with declining margins and cash flow metrics. However, the balance sheet remains relatively strong with moderate leverage and a solid equity position.

Income Statement

Shoe Carnival's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate by 2.23%, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. Gross profit margin stands at 36.11%, which is healthy but has decreased from previous periods. Net profit margin is at 5.41%, showing profitability but also a decline from prior years. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, indicating pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity is 9.58%, showing a reasonable return for shareholders, although it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio is strong, suggesting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns with a significant decline in free cash flow growth by 40.27% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.49, indicating that cash generation from operations is lower compared to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, suggesting limited cash available after capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.15B	1.20B	1.18B	1.26B	1.33B	976.76M
Gross Profit	416.64M	428.79M	421.39M	468.16M	526.79M	279.98M
EBITDA	115.53M	128.87M	125.22M	169.64M	269.44M	80.08M
Net Income	62.48M	73.77M	73.35M	110.07M	154.88M	15.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.17B	1.12B	1.04B	989.78M	812.26M	642.75M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	91.92M	123.11M	111.25M	62.97M	132.40M	106.53M
Total Debt	361.58M	367.99M	354.34M	343.23M	246.35M	231.42M
Total Liabilities	494.56M	475.14M	458.64M	464.21M	359.73M	332.57M
Stockholders Equity	670.69M	649.00M	583.39M	525.57M	452.53M	310.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	23.67M	69.48M	66.47M	-26.86M	116.51M	51.00M
Operating Cash Flow	65.52M	102.64M	122.76M	50.44M	147.89M	63.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-40.47M	-77.67M	-54.64M	-74.03M	-119.25M	-12.09M
Financing Cash Flow	-17.96M	-15.29M	-20.49M	-42.48M	-17.73M	-6.67M

Shoe Carnival Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 17.10
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCVL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.64, below the 50-day MA of 20.64, and below the 200-day MA of 20.63, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.96 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.26 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SCVL.

Shoe Carnival Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BOOT	77 Outperform	$5.69B	27.62	18.74%	―	17.82%	34.88%
BKE	76 Outperform	$2.93B	14.36	43.13%	6.70%	1.62%	-2.57%
AEO	71 Outperform	$2.90B	16.46	12.17%	2.81%	-2.73%	-16.71%
SCVL	67 Neutral	$476.29M	7.66	9.69%	3.42%	-6.42%	-19.27%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DBI	56 Neutral	$202.14M	―	-9.98%	5.04%	-4.63%	-637.55%
GCO	50 Neutral	$338.44M	―	-4.81%	―	2.66%	-4772.54%

Shoe Carnival Corporate Events

Shoe Carnival Appoints New CFO Amid Expansion Plans

Shoe Carnival announced the appointment of W. Kerry Jackson as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective September 28, 2025. Jackson, who rejoined the company in June 2025 as Senior Vice President of New Business Development after retiring in May 2023, previously served as the company’s CFO for 27 years. This transition is part of Shoe Carnival’s strategic plan to expand its store count and strengthen its market position, as evidenced by the recent grand opening of its 100th Shoe Station store, with plans to exceed 215 stores by July 2026. Patrick C. Edwards, the current CFO, will transition to the role of Senior Vice President, Special Projects, and Treasurer.

The most recent analyst rating on (SCVL) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Shoe Carnival stock, see the SCVL Stock Forecast page.

Shoe Carnival Reports Strong Q2 Earnings and Growth Strategy

Shoe Carnival, Inc. is a prominent retailer in the footwear industry, offering a wide range of dress, casual, and athletic footwear for all family members, with a focus on national name brands. The company operates under the Shoe Carnival, Shoe Station, and Rogan’s store brands across 35 states and Puerto Rico.

Shoe Carnival’s Strategic Shift: Earnings Call Insights

Shoe Carnival’s recent earnings call painted a picture of a company navigating both triumphs and challenges. The sentiment was largely positive, reflecting a strong quarter bolstered by strategic initiatives like the rebanner strategy and margin growth, particularly during the back-to-school season. However, the company is not without its hurdles, facing declining sales in its Shoe Carnival segment and managing high inventory levels. Despite these challenges, Shoe Carnival’s financial standing remains robust, with strategic investments anticipated to yield long-term benefits.