Genesco Inc. (GCO)
NYSE:GCO
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Genesco
(NYSE:GCO)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$37.00
▲(2.78% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/12/26
The score is driven by strong technical momentum and improving fundamentals (re-accelerating growth and robust recent free cash flow), supported by raised FY2027 guidance and a sizable cost-reduction program. Offsetting this are still-very-thin margins, moderate leverage, and near-term operational headwinds (pressured Q2, Schuh weakness, and license-exit impacts), while valuation is only mid-range with no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained TTM operating cash flow and FCF near $144M–$148M provide a durable internal funding source. Strong cash generation supports capital allocation for store remodels, technology investment, debt reduction or opportunistic buybacks and cushions the business against retail cyclicality.
Negative Factors
Very Thin Profitability
Margins are extremely thin, leaving minimal buffer against cost inflation, promotional pressure or weaker demand. With net and EBIT margins around 1%, small top-line or margin shocks can quickly convert modest profits into losses, challenging sustainable earnings stability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained TTM operating cash flow and FCF near $144M–$148M provide a durable internal funding source. Strong cash generation supports capital allocation for store remodels, technology investment, debt reduction or opportunistic buybacks and cushions the business against retail cyclicality.
Read all positive factors
Genesco (GCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$396.19M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)94.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.9
Beta (1Y)1.98
Revenue Growth4.60%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.92
Shares Outstanding11,106,973
10 Day Avg. Volume134,898
30 Day Avg. Volume94,845
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.53
Price to Sales (P/S)0.12
P/FCF Ratio3.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.38
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.67Price Target Upside12.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.43B
Genesco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Genesco Inc. (GCO) operates as a multifaceted enterprise involved in both the direct sales (retail) and bulk distribution (wholesale) of footwear, clothing, and various accessories. The company's operations are divided into four distinct business ...
How the Company Makes Money
Genesco primarily makes money by purchasing branded and private-label footwear (and selected apparel/accessories) from suppliers and selling those products to consumers at a retail markup through its store and e-commerce networks. Its key revenue ...
Genesco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 29, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted clear operational progress: revenue growth, mid-single-digit comps at Journeys, a strong +7% quarter at Johnston & Murphy, gross margin expansion (up 30 bps), SG&A leverage and an upgraded full-year EPS and operating income outlook. Management also announced a sizable cost program and expects meaningful tariff refunds. Offsetting these positives are a continued adjusted operating loss, a pronounced Schuh banner decline (comp -9%) with a cautious U.K. outlook, multi-quarter license-exit headwinds (Levi’s), and a pressured Q2 with sales expected down 3%–4%. On balance, the operational momentum, raised guidance and structural cost initiatives outweigh the near-term headwinds, but the path to sustained profitability still depends on Schuh recovery, execution of cost savings, and macro stability.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Comparable Sales
Total revenue rose 3% year-over-year to $487 million in Q1, driven by overall comparable sales growth of 2% (store comps +3%, direct comps flat).
Negative Updates
Schuh Banner Underperformance
Schuh comps declined 9% in Q1 as management intentionally pulled back promotions to recover gross margin; this caused lower store and e-commerce traffic and a longer expected turnaround timeframe given a weak U.K. consumer market.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Comparable Sales
Total revenue rose 3% year-over-year to $487 million in Q1, driven by overall comparable sales growth of 2% (store comps +3%, direct comps flat).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Genesco raised its fiscal 2027 outlook, tightening full‑year EPS to $2.00–$2.40 (up from prior guidance), with comparable sales estimated at ~1%–2% and total sales expected to be down 1% to flat (reflecting ~$30M of store‑closure sales loss and ~$30M of lost license revenue), adjusted operating income now forecast at approximately $34M–$40M (middle of the range most likely), gross margin up ~50–60 basis points, SG&A roughly flat to ~20 bps of deleverage (versus prior 10–30 bps deleverage), an assumed annual incremental tariff rate of 15% (tariff refund of ~$23M–$25M has been filed but is excluded from outlook), no incremental share repurchases (fiscal '27 average share count ~10.9M), and a full‑year tax rate of ~30% (with lower quarter‑to‑quarter rates — ~7%–8% in Q1–Q3 and a Q4 true‑up). For Q2 specifically they expect comps flat to slightly down, total sales down ~3%–4%, gross margin up ~50–70 bps, SG&A deleverage of ~60–80 bps, an operating loss in line with to slightly worse than last year and EPS about $0.20–$0.30 lower (Q2 called the most pressured quarter), with improvement weighted to the back half of the year (especially Q4).Genesco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.45B | 2.44B | 2.33B | 2.32B | 2.38B | 2.42B |
| Gross Profit | 1.13B | 1.13B | 1.10B | 1.10B | 1.14B | 1.18B |
| EBITDA | 83.28M | 70.71M | 66.72M | 35.84M | 136.11M | 198.41M |
| Net Income | 19.68M | 13.27M | -18.89M | -16.83M | 71.92M | 114.85M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.38B | 1.39B | 1.34B | 1.33B | 1.46B | 1.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 27.12M | 105.41M | 34.01M | 35.16M | 47.99M | 320.52M |
| Total Debt | 575.72M | 521.38M | 485.09M | 522.94M | 580.43M | 632.64M |
| Total Liabilities | 831.59M | 825.93M | 788.57M | 758.69M | 849.46M | 959.63M |
| Stockholders Equity | 552.44M | 567.04M | 546.97M | 571.20M | 606.97M | 602.47M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 147.51M | 83.71M | 46.75M | 34.49M | -224.82M | 185.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 144.02M | 145.76M | 87.89M | 94.80M | -164.88M | 239.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -58.57M | -62.05M | -41.13M | -60.00M | -59.93M | -33.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -80.63M | -13.32M | -47.00M | -47.58M | -45.53M | -101.17M |
Genesco Technical Analysis
Neutral
36.00
Price Trends
35.68
Negative
31.67
Positive
30.84
Positive
Market Momentum
0.69
Positive
46.25
Neutral
5.61
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.20, above the 50-day MA of 35.68, and above the 200-day MA of 30.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.61 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GCO.
Genesco Risk Analysis
Genesco disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Genesco reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Genesco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $396.19M | 18.90 | 3.68% | ― | 4.60% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $221.58M | 10.56 | 16.83% | 2.25% | -2.59% | -39.23% | |
55 Neutral | $300.16M | 19.96 | 4.73% | ― | 4.68% | 3252.79% | |
48 Neutral | $192.07M | -15.27 | 6.03% | ― | -10.09% | -232.12% | |
45 Neutral | $76.50M | -0.71 | 245.71% | ― | -13.13% | -54.20% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GCO
Genesco
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59.81%
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Genesco Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Genesco Names Ashley Randolph Chief Accounting Officer
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Genesco Inc. announced that 20-year company veteran Ashley Randolph has been appointed vice president and chief accounting officer, effective the same day, succeeding CEO Mimi E. Vaughn in the principal accounting officer role as V...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Genesco Adopts New Performance-Based Short-Term Incentive Plan
Positive
Apr 8, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Genesco’s board of directors approved a new Short-Term Incentive Plan to replace its prior EVA-based incentive program, reshaping how annual bonuses are determined for eligible employees, including named executive officers....
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Genesco CEO Assumes Interim Principal Accounting Officer Role
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
Genesco said that, under a consulting agreement dated January 29, 2026, former Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Cassandra E. Harris continued to serve as a consultant and principal accounting officer from March 7, 2026, through th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.