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Genesco Inc. (GCO)
NYSE:GCO
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Genesco (GCO) AI Stock Analysis

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GCO

Genesco

(NYSE:GCO)

Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$27.00
▲(7.91% Upside)
Genesco's overall stock score is primarily driven by a challenging financial performance with negative profitability, which is partially offset by positive technical trends and a cautiously optimistic earnings call. Valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio further dampen the score. Strategic efforts to address operational challenges and leverage growth opportunities are critical for future improvements.
Positive Factors
Earnings
GCO reported solid 1Q results and reiterated its FY EPS guidance, despite now embedding the impacts of current tariffs.
Market Trends
Recent data suggests that mall trends might be stabilizing, offering an opportunity for Journeys to benefit from new mall strategies aimed at attracting younger consumers.
Strategic Initiatives
Journeys is experiencing significant progress with assortment upgrades, traction with remodels, and the closure of underperforming locations.
Negative Factors
Consumer Sentiment
The second-half outlook remains cloudy due to potential tariff impacts on consumer sentiment.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
The company's mall-based exposure may make it more susceptible to discretionary downturns due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
Operating Margins
The company expects incremental pressure on 2Q operating margins and EPS as it pulls forward investment to drive second-half sales growth.

Genesco (GCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Genesco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGenesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Licensed Brands. The Journeys Group segment offers footwear and accessories through the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, and Little Burgundy retail chains, as well as through e-commerce and catalogs for young men, women, and children. The Schuh Group segment operates Schuh retail footwear stores that offer casual and athletic footwear, as well as sells footwear through e-commerce. The Johnston & Murphy Group segment is involved in the retail and e-commerce operations; and wholesale distribution of men's dress and casual footwear, apparel, and accessories, as well as women's footwear and accessories. The Licensed Brands segment markets footwear under the Levi's, Dockers, and G.H. Bass brands for men, women, and children, as well as designs and manufactures the STARTER and ETONIC brands footwear. As of January 29, 2022, the company operated approximately 1,425 retail stores in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland primarily under the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, Schuh, Little Burgundy, and Johnston & Murphy names. Its e-commerce websites include journeys.com, journeyskidz.com, journeys.ca, schuh.co.uk, schuh.ie, schuh.eu, johnstonmurphy.com, littleburgundyshoes.com, johnstonmurphy.ca, nashvilleshoewarehouse.com, and dockersshoes.com. Genesco Inc. was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.
How the Company Makes MoneyGenesco Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of footwear, apparel, and accessories via its branded retail stores, e-commerce websites, and wholesale operations. The company's key revenue streams include direct-to-consumer sales through its physical retail stores and online platforms, which are complemented by wholesale distribution to third-party retailers. Genesco's diverse brand portfolio allows it to target different customer segments, from teenagers to professional adults, thereby maximizing market reach. Significant partnerships with popular footwear and apparel brands, as well as exclusive product offerings, also contribute to its earnings. Additionally, the company benefits from economies of scale in procurement and distribution, enhancing profitability.

Genesco Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 04, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: 11.95%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook. While there are significant positives such as robust sales growth, especially in the Journeys segment, and effective cost management, challenges remain in the form of a choppy consumer environment, tariff uncertainties, and margin pressures. The company is implementing strategic initiatives to navigate these challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Sales Growth
First quarter sales growth outpaced the industry with an overall 5% comparable sales increase, led by strong Journeys results with an 8% increase in comps.
Positive Operating Income and EPS Improvement
Operating income and EPS improved year-over-year due to higher sales and better expense management. Operating expense leveraged 170 basis points.
Journeys Transformation Success
New leadership and strategic growth plans led to a significant improvement in Journeys' performance, with a focus on product assortment and premium athletic brands.
Effective Cost Management
SG&A expense was 52.5% of sales, 170 basis points better than the prior year, driven by reduced occupancy and bonus expenses, along with cost savings initiatives.
Store Optimization and Remodel Success
The new 4.0 store design delivered strong results with a sales lift of more than 25%, and 39 stores have been remodeled since the program started.
Negative Updates
Consumer Environment Challenges
The consumer environment remains choppy, with consumers showing a willingness to shop only during specific periods, leading to softer traffic overall.
Gross Margin Decline
Adjusted gross margin for the quarter declined 90 basis points compared to last year due to higher price point but lower-margin products in Journeys and Schuh.
Tariff Impact and Uncertainty
The company faces uncertainty with respect to tariffs and has implemented multiple strategies to mitigate the impact, estimating an unmitigated cost increase of $15 million for the fiscal year.
Johnston & Murphy Comps Decline
Johnston & Murphy comps declined 2% in Q1, with factory stores experiencing larger traffic declines as a more price-sensitive customer retreated.
Company Guidance
During the Genesco First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Conference Call, the company provided guidance that included several metrics. First quarter sales increased by 5%, surpassing expectations and outpacing the industry, with strong performance from Journeys, which saw an 8% comparable sales increase. All channels posted positive growth, with store sales up mid-single digits, online sales up high-single digits, and wholesale channel growth at 5%. Operating expenses leveraged by 170 basis points, and operating income and EPS improved year-over-year, with EPS potentially $0.05 higher without share buybacks. The full-year EPS guidance range was reiterated at $1.30 to $1.70, despite uncertainties like tariffs, which could result in unmitigated cost increases of roughly $15 million. The company plans a strategic approach with mitigation efforts, including accelerating inventory management and diversifying sourcing. Additionally, the company expects second-quarter operations to reflect some challenges, but anticipates leveraging key shopping periods in the second half of the year to drive growth.

Genesco Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Genesco's financial performance is challenged by declining revenues and profitability, increasing leverage, and volatile cash flows. The company struggles with operational cash generation and requires strategic focus on enhancing operational efficiency and managing financial leverage.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Genesco's Income Statement reveals a challenging landscape with a declining revenue trend over recent years and negative net income in the TTM. The gross profit margin remains relatively stable, indicating cost management efficiency, but declining EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest operational challenges. Revenue growth has been negative over the past periods, highlighting a concerning trajectory in sales performance.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The Balance Sheet shows a moderate level of financial stability. Although the equity ratio is reasonable, indicating a balanced capital structure, the rising debt-to-equity ratio is a concern, suggesting increased leverage. Return on Equity has been negative, reflecting profitability issues, but the company retains a fair amount of stockholders' equity relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash Flow analysis indicates significant volatility, with free cash flow turning negative in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests operational inefficiencies, and the drop in free cash flow growth rate signals potential liquidity issues. Capital expenditures have been sustained, yet the ability to generate positive free cash flow remains inconsistent.
BreakdownMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.33B2.32B2.38B2.42B1.79B
Gross Profit1.10B1.10B1.14B1.18B804.47M
EBITDA66.72M35.84M136.66M190.36M-59.66M
Net Income-18.89M-16.83M71.92M114.85M-56.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.34B1.33B1.46B1.56B1.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments34.01M35.16M47.99M320.52M215.09M
Total Debt485.09M522.94M580.43M632.64M734.04M
Total Liabilities788.57M758.69M849.46M959.63M1.02B
Stockholders Equity546.97M571.20M606.97M602.47M566.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow46.75M34.49M-224.82M185.97M133.61M
Operating Cash Flow87.89M94.80M-164.88M239.87M157.74M
Investing Cash Flow-41.13M-60.00M-59.93M-33.90M-24.02M
Financing Cash Flow-47.00M-47.58M-45.53M-101.17M-3.16M

Genesco Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price25.02
Price Trends
50DMA
22.71
Positive
100DMA
21.78
Positive
200DMA
28.84
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.67
Negative
RSI
57.49
Neutral
STOCH
74.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.08, above the 50-day MA of 22.71, and below the 200-day MA of 28.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GCO.

Genesco Risk Analysis

Genesco disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Genesco reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Genesco Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$240.56M7.0241.77%1.90%-2.24%-33.43%
63
Neutral
$276.91M-3.07%1.85%22.34%
61
Neutral
$16.55B10.17-9.03%3.33%1.46%-22.85%
56
Neutral
$248.97M1,333.640.23%3.01%
55
Neutral
$139.15M-9.20%6.83%-4.22%-386.70%
52
Neutral
$251.89M-29.52%1.85%-337.77%
44
Neutral
$104.19M-521.67%-12.15%75.86%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GCO
Genesco
25.02
-2.20
-8.08%
CTRN
Citi Trends
30.48
13.91
83.95%
DBI
Designer Brands
2.93
-4.05
-58.02%
PLCE
Children's Place
4.58
-2.82
-38.11%
ZUMZ
Zumiez
14.71
-9.33
-38.81%
JILL
JJill
15.81
-18.75
-54.25%

Genesco Corporate Events

Shareholder Meetings
Genesco Holds Virtual Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Jun 27, 2025

On June 26, 2025, Genesco held its annual shareholder meeting virtually from its headquarters in Nashville, Tennessee, where shareholders voted on several key matters. All nine director nominees were elected, and shareholders approved the executive compensation plan, the Third Amended and Restated 2020 Equity Incentive Plan, and the appointment of Deloitte & Touche as the independent accountants for the fiscal year.

The most recent analyst rating on (GCO) stock is a Hold with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesco stock, see the GCO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025