Genesco (GCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $221.72M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 301.44K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.03
• Revenue Growth: 1.85%
• EPS Growth: 22.34%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,400
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): -2.05
• Shares Outstanding: 10,778,805
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 373,591
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 301,435
• PEG Ratio: -0.55
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.08
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.28
• 1Y Price Target: $24.50
• Price Target Upside: 14.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 40 Underperform
• Price Target: $20.00 ▼(-6.37%Downside)

The overall stock score reflects significant financial and technical challenges. Financial performance is notably weak, with declining revenues and cash flow issues. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, and valuation metrics are unattractive due to negative earnings. Despite some positive elements from the earnings call, these factors heavily weigh down the overall score.

Positive Factors

Earnings

GCO reported solid 1Q results and reiterated its FY EPS guidance, despite now embedding the impacts of current tariffs.

Mall Trends

Recent data suggests that mall trends might be stabilizing, offering an opportunity for Journeys to benefit from new mall strategies aimed at attracting younger consumers.

Management Strategy

Management highlighted that they continue to see strength around key shopping events, which was a key driver in the decision to pull-forward marketing spend and gear up for important shopping seasons.

Negative Factors

Consumer Sentiment

The second-half outlook remains cloudy due to potential tariff impacts on consumer sentiment.

Mall-Based Exposure

The company's mall-based exposure may make it more susceptible to discretionary downturns due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

Operating Margins

The company expects incremental pressure on 2Q operating margins and EPS as it pulls forward investment to drive second-half sales growth.

Genesco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Genesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Licensed Brands. The Journeys Group segment offers footwear and accessories through the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, and Little Burgundy retail chains, as well as through e-commerce and catalogs for young men, women, and children. The Schuh Group segment operates Schuh retail footwear stores that offer casual and athletic footwear, as well as sells footwear through e-commerce. The Johnston & Murphy Group segment is involved in the retail and e-commerce operations; and wholesale distribution of men's dress and casual footwear, apparel, and accessories, as well as women's footwear and accessories. The Licensed Brands segment markets footwear under the Levi's, Dockers, and G.H. Bass brands for men, women, and children, as well as designs and manufactures the STARTER and ETONIC brands footwear. As of January 29, 2022, the company operated approximately 1,425 retail stores in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland primarily under the Journeys, Journeys Kidz, Schuh, Little Burgundy, and Johnston & Murphy names. Its e-commerce websites include journeys.com, journeyskidz.com, journeys.ca, schuh.co.uk, schuh.ie, schuh.eu, johnstonmurphy.com, littleburgundyshoes.com, johnstonmurphy.ca, nashvilleshoewarehouse.com, and dockersshoes.com. Genesco Inc. was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Genesco Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of footwear, apparel, and accessories via its branded retail stores, e-commerce websites, and wholesale operations. The company's key revenue streams include direct-to-consumer sales through its physical retail stores and online platforms, which are complemented by wholesale distribution to third-party retailers. Genesco's diverse brand portfolio allows it to target different customer segments, from teenagers to professional adults, thereby maximizing market reach. Significant partnerships with popular footwear and apparel brands, as well as exclusive product offerings, also contribute to its earnings. Additionally, the company benefits from economies of scale in procurement and distribution, enhancing profitability.

Genesco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Genesco's financial performance is challenged by declining revenues, negative net profit margins, and cash flow issues. The company is struggling with operational efficiency and cash management, as reflected by the negative operating cash flow and poor free cash flow to net income ratio.

Income Statement

Genesco's income statement reflects challenges in maintaining revenue and profitability. The gross profit margin remained stable at approximately 47% over the years, showing efficiency in managing cost of goods sold. However, the net profit margin turned negative in recent years, indicating operational struggles and costs outweighing revenues. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, reflecting declining operational efficiency. Moreover, the revenue growth rate is negative, indicating a downward trajectory in sales.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.89, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. However, stockholders' equity has decreased over time, reflecting potential erosion of value. The equity ratio is around 41%, suggesting a stable capital structure, but the reduction in total assets and equity is concerning.

Cash Flow

Genesco's cash flow statement highlights significant challenges. The operating cash flow has been volatile, turning negative recently, and free cash flow has seen substantial declines, indicating cash management issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio showcases inconsistency in converting income into cash, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is poor, reflecting inadequate cash generation relative to profits.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.33B	2.32B	2.38B	2.42B	1.79B
Gross Profit	1.10B	1.10B	1.14B	1.18B	804.47M
EBITDA	66.72M	35.84M	136.66M	190.36M	-59.66M
Net Income	-18.89M	-16.83M	71.92M	114.85M	-56.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.34B	1.33B	1.46B	1.56B	1.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	34.01M	35.16M	47.99M	320.52M	215.09M
Total Debt	485.09M	522.94M	580.43M	632.64M	734.04M
Total Liabilities	788.57M	758.69M	849.46M	959.63M	1.02B
Stockholders Equity	546.97M	571.20M	606.97M	602.47M	566.76M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	46.75M	34.49M	-224.82M	185.97M	133.61M
Operating Cash Flow	87.89M	94.80M	-164.88M	239.87M	157.74M
Investing Cash Flow	-41.13M	-60.00M	-59.93M	-33.90M	-24.02M
Financing Cash Flow	-47.00M	-47.58M	-45.53M	-101.17M	-3.16M

Genesco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.36
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.81, above the 50-day MA of 21.22, and below the 200-day MA of 29.39, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GCO.

Genesco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JILL	66 Neutral	$211.67M	6.17	41.77%	2.14%	-2.24%	-33.43%
CTRN	57 Neutral	$248.49M	―	-29.52%	―	1.85%	-337.77%
Sector *	56 Neutral	HK$24.19B	4.02	-1.57%	11.14%	0.06%	-64.76%
DBI	54 Neutral	$112.78M	―	-9.20%	8.66%	-4.22%	-386.70%
ZUMZ	48 Neutral	$226.40M	1,158.18	0.23%	―	3.01%	―
GCO	40 Underperform	$221.72M	―	-3.07%	―	1.85%	22.34%
PLCE	40 Underperform	$92.66M	―	-521.67%	―	-12.15%	75.86%

Genesco Corporate Events

Genesco Updates Employment Protection Agreements for Executives

On February 6, 2025, Genesco Inc.’s Compensation Committee approved amendments to its Employment Protection Agreement. The changes allow Termination Notices during active negotiations for transactions that could lead to a Change in Control and remove automatic termination upon reaching a certain retirement age, impacting executive employment stability during potential company transitions.