Genesco Inc. (GCO)
NYSE:GCO
Want to see GCO full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Genesco
(NYSE:GCO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
▼(-2.78% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/06/26
Overall score reflects a mixed setup: improving cash generation and a return to profitability, but still very thin and volatile margins that limit financial quality. Technicals are moderately supportive with neutral momentum, while valuation looks inexpensive on P/E. Earnings-call guidance points to modest comps and improved profitability, but with notable near-term pressure and tariff/promotion risks.
Positive Factors
Journeys Growth
Journeys' consistent double-digit comps and outsized productivity from the 4.0 store format indicate a durable growth engine and scalable retail model. Continued rollouts and market-share gains at a youth-focused banner support sustained revenue and operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Thin Profitability
Margins near break-even leave earnings highly sensitive to modest cost increases, tariffs or sales softness. Low margins constrain reinvestment, limit ability to build reserves, and produce weak ROE, making durable earnings growth and return generation more challenging across business cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Journeys Growth
Journeys' consistent double-digit comps and outsized productivity from the 4.0 store format indicate a durable growth engine and scalable retail model. Continued rollouts and market-share gains at a youth-focused banner support sustained revenue and operating leverage over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Genesco (GCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$376.13M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)94.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)1.6
Beta (1Y)1.97
Revenue Growth4.78%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.32
Shares Outstanding10,858,224
10 Day Avg. Volume134,898
30 Day Avg. Volume94,845
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.53
Price to Sales (P/S)0.12
P/FCF Ratio3.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.33
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.70
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.50Price Target Upside4.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.43B
Genesco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Genesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Licensed Brands. The Journeys Group segment offers foot...
How the Company Makes Money
Genesco makes money mainly by selling footwear and related products to consumers through its retail stores and direct-to-consumer e-commerce websites, generating revenue at the point of sale. The largest revenue stream is typically its Journeys se...
Genesco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 06, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of clear operational wins and near-term headwinds. Highlights include a strong Q4 showing (Q4 revenue +7%, comps +9%), significant outperformance at Journeys (12% comp, 4.0 stores comping 25%+), improved adjusted operating income (+17% Q4) and EPS (Q4 EPS $3.74), solid free cash flow generation and a positive net cash position. Offsetting these positives are pronounced margin pressure driven largely by Schuh’s heavy promotional environment and license exit impacts, ongoing tariff headwinds (estimated $5–10M net FY2027 impact), and expected flat-to-down full-year sales as closures and license wind-downs reduce top line. Management provided clear remediation plans (Schuh promotional reset, continued 4.0 rollouts, cost actions) and a FY2027 earnings outlook that anticipates improved operating profit and EPS despite flat sales. Overall, the positives around execution, cash flow, Journeys momentum and guidance modestly outweigh the domestic and international margin and transition challenges, though risks and near-term volatility remain.Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue and Comparable Sales Strength
Q4 revenue of $800 million, up 7% year-over-year; total comparable sales increased 9% (stores +9%, direct +8%), the strongest quarterly comp performance of the year across both channels.
Negative Updates
Schuh Margin Pressure and Promotional Environment
Schuh faced a lackluster holiday season with heavy promotional activity that pressured profitability; promotional cadence was a primary driver of gross margin pressure (company cites Schuh as ~60% of the gross margin deleverage in 2026). FY2027 will require a promotional reset and mid-single-digit sales decline at Schuh is expected as a trade-off to restore margins.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Revenue and Comparable Sales Strength
Q4 revenue of $800 million, up 7% year-over-year; total comparable sales increased 9% (stores +9%, direct +8%), the strongest quarterly comp performance of the year across both channels.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for fiscal 2027 assumes comparable sales up roughly 1%–2% (after +6% in FY25 and +9% in FY26) but total sales to be down 1% to flat as about $30 million of planned net store closures and roughly $30 million from license exits offset positive comps; by division management expects low-single-digit growth at Journeys, mid-single-digit declines at Schuh, mid-single-digit increases at Johnston & Murphy and a decline at Genesco Brands. They expect gross margin to improve ~50–60 basis points (with Q1 flattish), ongoing tariff mitigation but a net negative operating income impact of ~$5–10 million already modeled, SG&A to deleverage ~10–30 bps on a flat sales base, and profitability weighted to the back half of the year. Full-year adjusted operating income is guided to $32–38 million with adjusted EPS of $1.90–2.30, capex of $65–70 million (primarily Journeys remodels/new stores), an average share count of ~10.9 million (no share repurchases assumed), and a full‑year effective tax rate of ~30% (with Q1–Q3 roughly 7–8% and a Q4 true‑up), while Q1 is expected to be the most pressured quarter (adjusted operating loss a little over $1 million worse than last year and EPS materially lower due to tax timing).Genesco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.44B | 2.33B | 2.32B | 2.38B | 2.42B |
| Gross Profit | 1.13B | 1.10B | 1.10B | 1.14B | 1.18B |
| EBITDA | 70.71M | 66.72M | 35.84M | 136.11M | 198.41M |
| Net Income | 13.27M | -18.89M | -16.83M | 71.92M | 114.85M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.39B | 1.34B | 1.33B | 1.46B | 1.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 105.41M | 34.01M | 35.16M | 47.99M | 320.52M |
| Total Debt | 521.38M | 485.09M | 522.94M | 580.43M | 632.64M |
| Total Liabilities | 825.93M | 788.57M | 758.69M | 849.46M | 959.63M |
| Stockholders Equity | 567.04M | 546.97M | 571.20M | 606.97M | 602.47M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 83.71M | 46.75M | 34.49M | -224.82M | 185.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 145.76M | 87.89M | 94.80M | -164.88M | 239.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -62.05M | -41.13M | -60.00M | -59.93M | -33.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -13.32M | -47.00M | -47.58M | -45.53M | -101.17M |
Genesco Technical Analysis
Positive
36.00
Price Trends
28.15
Positive
28.65
Positive
28.55
Positive
Market Momentum
1.93
Negative
79.95
Negative
90.78
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.91, above the 50-day MA of 28.15, and above the 200-day MA of 28.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.95 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.78 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GCO.
Genesco Risk Analysis
Genesco disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Genesco reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Genesco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $376.13M | 1.57 | 2.52% | ― | 4.78% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $496.92M | 14.39 | 7.75% | 3.12% | -5.62% | -29.58% | |
56 Neutral | $423.73M | 5.28 | 4.41% | ― | 4.48% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $185.43M | -16.64 | 23.05% | 2.25% | -2.34% | -31.72% | |
49 Neutral | $151.95M | -3.52 | 3.50% | ― | -9.39% | -147.79% | |
42 Neutral | $73.97M | -0.50 | 532.94% | ― | -12.80% | 11.78% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GCO
Genesco
34.64
14.57
72.60%
SCVL
Shoe Carnival
18.09
0.83
4.80%
PLCE
Children's Place
3.33
-2.09
-38.56%
ZUMZ
Zumiez
24.97
13.26
113.24%
JILL
JJill
12.44
-2.52
-16.86%
CURV
Torrid Holdings
1.53
-3.72
-70.86%
Genesco Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Genesco Names Ashley Randolph Chief Accounting Officer
Positive
May 5, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Genesco Inc. announced that 20-year company veteran Ashley Randolph has been appointed vice president and chief accounting officer, effective the same day, succeeding CEO Mimi E. Vaughn in the principal accounting officer role as V...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Genesco Adopts New Performance-Based Short-Term Incentive Plan
Positive
Apr 8, 2026
On April 7, 2026, Genesco’s board of directors approved a new Short-Term Incentive Plan to replace its prior EVA-based incentive program, reshaping how annual bonuses are determined for eligible employees, including named executive officers....
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Genesco CEO Assumes Interim Principal Accounting Officer Role
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
Genesco said that, under a consulting agreement dated January 29, 2026, former Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Cassandra E. Harris continued to serve as a consultant and principal accounting officer from March 7, 2026, through th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.