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Genesco
(NYSE:GCO)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▲(14.88% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/23/26
GCO scores as a moderate-quality setup driven primarily by improving fundamentals and a constructive earnings update: the company is rebounding in revenue, generating solid recent cash flow, and raised FY2027 guidance alongside a large cost-reduction program. The score is held back by very slim current margins, meaningful leverage, and near-term pressures (including Schuh weakness and a guided-soft Q2). Technicals are supportive with the stock above key moving averages, while valuation is neutral with a ~19x P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained positive free cash flow (~$148M TTM) provides durable financial flexibility to fund Journeys rollouts, the announced cost program, and potential debt reduction. Strong FCF also supports ongoing capital allocation without relying on fragile operating earnings, cushioning near-term cycles.
Negative Factors
Very Slim Profit Margins
Margins remain extremely thin, leaving minimal buffer against commodity, freight or promotional pressure. Even modest sales weakness or execution slippage can erase profits, making sustained earnings fragile until gross margin and SG&A leverage are meaningfully expanded.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained positive free cash flow (~$148M TTM) provides durable financial flexibility to fund Journeys rollouts, the announced cost program, and potential debt reduction. Strong FCF also supports ongoing capital allocation without relying on fragile operating earnings, cushioning near-term cycles.
Read all positive factors
Genesco (GCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$424.51M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)94.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.9
Beta (1Y)1.95
Revenue Growth4.60%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees16,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.92
Shares Outstanding11,106,973
10 Day Avg. Volume134,898
30 Day Avg. Volume94,845
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.53
Price to Sales (P/S)0.12
P/FCF Ratio3.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$40.67Price Target Upside13.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.43B
Genesco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Genesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Genesco Brands Group. The Journeys Group segment offers...
How the Company Makes Money
Genesco primarily makes money by purchasing branded and private-label footwear (and selected apparel/accessories) from suppliers and selling those products to consumers at a retail markup through its store and e-commerce networks. Its key revenue ...
Genesco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 29, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted clear operational progress: revenue growth, mid-single-digit comps at Journeys, a strong +7% quarter at Johnston & Murphy, gross margin expansion (up 30 bps), SG&A leverage and an upgraded full-year EPS and operating income outlook. Management also announced a sizable cost program and expects meaningful tariff refunds. Offsetting these positives are a continued adjusted operating loss, a pronounced Schuh banner decline (comp -9%) with a cautious U.K. outlook, multi-quarter license-exit headwinds (Levi’s), and a pressured Q2 with sales expected down 3%–4%. On balance, the operational momentum, raised guidance and structural cost initiatives outweigh the near-term headwinds, but the path to sustained profitability still depends on Schuh recovery, execution of cost savings, and macro stability.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Comparable Sales
Total revenue rose 3% year-over-year to $487 million in Q1, driven by overall comparable sales growth of 2% (store comps +3%, direct comps flat).
Negative Updates
Schuh Banner Underperformance
Schuh comps declined 9% in Q1 as management intentionally pulled back promotions to recover gross margin; this caused lower store and e-commerce traffic and a longer expected turnaround timeframe given a weak U.K. consumer market.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Comparable Sales
Total revenue rose 3% year-over-year to $487 million in Q1, driven by overall comparable sales growth of 2% (store comps +3%, direct comps flat).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Genesco raised its fiscal 2027 outlook, tightening full‑year EPS to $2.00–$2.40 (up from prior guidance), with comparable sales estimated at ~1%–2% and total sales expected to be down 1% to flat (reflecting ~$30M of store‑closure sales loss and ~$30M of lost license revenue), adjusted operating income now forecast at approximately $34M–$40M (middle of the range most likely), gross margin up ~50–60 basis points, SG&A roughly flat to ~20 bps of deleverage (versus prior 10–30 bps deleverage), an assumed annual incremental tariff rate of 15% (tariff refund of ~$23M–$25M has been filed but is excluded from outlook), no incremental share repurchases (fiscal '27 average share count ~10.9M), and a full‑year tax rate of ~30% (with lower quarter‑to‑quarter rates — ~7%–8% in Q1–Q3 and a Q4 true‑up). For Q2 specifically they expect comps flat to slightly down, total sales down ~3%–4%, gross margin up ~50–70 bps, SG&A deleverage of ~60–80 bps, an operating loss in line with to slightly worse than last year and EPS about $0.20–$0.30 lower (Q2 called the most pressured quarter), with improvement weighted to the back half of the year (especially Q4).Genesco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.45B | 2.44B | 2.33B | 2.32B | 2.38B | 2.42B |
| Gross Profit | 1.13B | 1.13B | 1.10B | 1.10B | 1.14B | 1.18B |
| EBITDA | 83.28M | 70.71M | 66.72M | 35.84M | 136.11M | 198.41M |
| Net Income | 19.68M | 13.27M | -18.89M | -16.83M | 71.92M | 114.85M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.38B | 1.39B | 1.34B | 1.33B | 1.46B | 1.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 27.12M | 105.41M | 34.01M | 35.16M | 47.99M | 320.52M |
| Total Debt | 575.72M | 521.38M | 485.09M | 522.94M | 580.43M | 632.64M |
| Total Liabilities | 831.59M | 825.93M | 788.57M | 758.69M | 849.46M | 959.63M |
| Stockholders Equity | 552.44M | 567.04M | 546.97M | 571.20M | 606.97M | 602.47M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 147.51M | 83.71M | 46.75M | 34.49M | -224.82M | 185.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 144.02M | 145.76M | 87.89M | 94.80M | -164.88M | 239.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -58.57M | -62.05M | -41.13M | -60.00M | -59.93M | -33.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -80.63M | -13.32M | -47.00M | -47.58M | -45.53M | -101.17M |
Genesco Technical Analysis
Positive
35.69
Price Trends
36.79
Positive
34.38
Positive
31.66
Positive
Market Momentum
0.97
Negative
57.08
Neutral
71.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.06, below the 50-day MA of 36.79, and above the 200-day MA of 31.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GCO.
Genesco Risk Analysis
Genesco disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Genesco reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Genesco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $424.51M | 19.91 | 3.68% | ― | 4.60% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $272.41M | 13.11 | 16.83% | 1.50% | -2.59% | -39.23% | |
55 Neutral | $331.88M | 21.62 | 4.73% | ― | 4.68% | 3252.79% | |
53 Neutral | $253.78M | -20.06 | 6.03% | ― | -10.09% | -232.12% | |
41 Neutral | $54.26M | -0.50 | 245.71% | ― | -13.13% | -54.20% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Genesco Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Genesco announces leadership transition for strategy and digital
Neutral
Aug 6, 2026
Genesco announced that Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Digital Officer Parag D. Desai will retire effective October 31, 2026, after joining the company in 2014 and becoming Chief Strategy and Digital Officer in April 2021. Effective Augu...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Genesco Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Incentive Plan
Positive
Jul 22, 2026
Genesco Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on July 21, 2026, with approximately 85.63% of eligible shares represented, establishing a quorum for key governance decisions. Shareholders elected nine company-nominated directors to serve unt...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Genesco Appoints Jonathan Collins as New Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
On June 29, 2026, Genesco announced that it has appointed Jonathan Collins as Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer, with effect from August 3, 2026, succeeding CEO Mimi E. Vaughn in the interim finance role. Collins will also...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.