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Citi Trends (CTRN)
NASDAQ:CTRN

Citi Trends (CTRN) AI Stock Analysis

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Citi Trends

(NASDAQ:CTRN)

Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(6.22%Upside)
Citi Trends' overall score is driven by strong earnings call performance and positive technical indicators, countered by weak financial performance and valuation metrics. The company's strategic improvements and liquidity position provide some optimism, but financial challenges remain a significant concern.

Citi Trends (CTRN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Citi Trends Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCiti Trends, Inc. (CTRN) is a leading specialty value retailer of apparel, accessories, and home trends. The company primarily serves the fashion needs of value-conscious African American and Hispanic families in the United States. Citi Trends offers a wide selection of discounted merchandise, including branded and private-label products for men, women, and children, along with a variety of home and lifestyle items.
How the Company Makes MoneyCiti Trends generates revenue through the sale of apparel, accessories, and home goods at its retail locations across the United States. The company's revenue model is primarily based on offering products at discounted prices, attracting cost-conscious consumers looking for quality merchandise at lower prices. Citi Trends operates a chain of physical stores where most of its sales are conducted, and it does not heavily rely on e-commerce as a sales channel. Key revenue streams include seasonal clothing collections, everyday apparel, and a variety of household items. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by its ability to maintain a diverse and appealing product mix, effective inventory management, and strategic store locations that cater to its target demographics.

Citi Trends Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 03, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 52.97%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 26, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant sales growth, improved profitability, and successful product strategies across various categories. The implementation of new systems and financial strength also contributed positively. However, challenges in the accessory business, distribution center performance, and tariff-related uncertainties were noted as areas needing attention.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Sales Growth and Market Share
Total sales grew $15.4 million or 8.3% over the prior year, and comparable store sales increased by 9.9% over the prior year, indicating a 2-year stack of 13%.
Profitability and Cost Management
Adjusted EBITDA increased by $6.2 million, representing a sales to profit flowthrough of 40%, driven by gross margin expansion of 90 basis points and operating expense leverage of 220 basis points.
Broad-Based Category Performance
Strong performance across all apparel and home categories, with many focused categories experiencing double-digit growth, indicating successful product strategy.
Inventory and Operational Improvements
Average in-store inventories down 4.9% with fresher inventory due to 45% reduction in products aged 7 months or more, and implementation of new wayfinding signage systems in stores.
AI-Based Allocation System
Successful testing of a new AI-based allocation system, which is expected to improve inventory efficiency and operational capabilities.
Financial Position and Liquidity
Strong balance sheet with no debt, $42 million in cash, and $75 million revolver, providing liquidity of approximately $117 million.
Negative Updates
Accessory Business Underperformance
The accessory business was slightly below plan for the quarter, with ongoing refinement needed to better meet customer needs in handbags, jewelry, and beauty.
Distribution Center Challenges
Distribution center performance was below expectations, indicating room for improvement in an essential area for long-term success.
Tariff Environment Uncertainty
Uncertainty due to potential changes in tariffs, requiring agility and adaptation in sourcing and cost management strategies.
Company Guidance
During the Citi Trends First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided several key metrics indicating significant progress in their strategic transformation. Total sales increased by $15.4 million, an 8.3% rise over the previous year, with comparable store sales growing by 9.9%. The company reported an increase in adjusted EBITDA by $6.2 million, achieving a sales to profit flowthrough of 40%. Gross margin expanded by 90 basis points, and operating expense leverage improved by 220 basis points. The company also highlighted a strong performance across all apparel and home categories, with many experiencing double-digit growth. Looking ahead, Citi Trends aims for mid single-digit comparable store sales growth for the full year and expects gross margin to expand by approximately 200 basis points compared to 2024. The company forecasts full-year EBITDA between $6 million to $10 million, reflecting a significant improvement from the previous year.

Citi Trends Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Citi Trends is experiencing financial strain with declining revenues and profitability, affecting both the income statement and cash flows. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, posing potential risks if earnings do not improve. While the company faces challenges, the relatively stable cash position offers some resilience to navigate through difficult periods. Continued focus on cost management and operational efficiency will be key to reversing the negative trends.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Citi Trends has faced declining revenue and profitability in recent years. The TTM data shows a negative EBIT and net income, reflecting operational challenges. Gross profit margin has decreased compared to previous years, indicating pressure on cost management. However, despite the negative trend, there are signs of recovery in revenue growth when comparing recent TTM figures to the previous annual data.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The company's balance sheet reveals moderate stability with a debt-to-equity ratio that is relatively high, indicating potential leverage risk. The equity ratio has decreased over time, reflecting increased liabilities. However, the company maintains a consistent level of cash, which provides some liquidity buffer. Return on equity has been negative recently, consistent with the negative net income.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Citi Trends has struggled with cash flow in recent periods, as evidenced by negative free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is weak, highlighting challenges in converting income to cash. Free cash flow growth has been negative, suggesting difficulties in managing capital expenditures relative to cash generation.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue768.52M753.08M747.94M795.01M991.60M783.29M
Gross Profit280.67M282.04M285.12M310.99M407.53M311.68M
EBITDA-11.55M-18.19M3.41M148.24M150.40M51.43M
Net Income-38.87M-43.17M-11.98M58.89M62.24M23.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets437.41M462.77M518.72M544.26M474.02M494.59M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments41.56M61.09M79.71M103.50M49.79M123.18M
Total Debt220.39M220.40M234.65M267.60M216.11M192.81M
Total Liabilities328.85M349.59M361.01M377.81M357.88M330.96M
Stockholders Equity108.56M113.18M157.71M166.44M116.14M163.63M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-5.83M-13.96M-24.45M-16.53M44.61M93.90M
Operating Cash Flow4.80M-3.85M-9.58M5.75M74.32M110.86M
Investing Cash Flow-10.62M-10.11M-13.36M60.18M-29.52M26.70M
Financing Cash Flow-10.79M-4.66M-854.00K-12.23M-118.19M-34.30M

Citi Trends Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price32.95
Price Trends
50DMA
27.60
Positive
100DMA
25.12
Positive
200DMA
23.54
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.36
Positive
RSI
64.56
Neutral
STOCH
83.22
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTRN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 32.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.84, above the 50-day MA of 27.60, and above the 200-day MA of 23.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTRN.

Citi Trends Risk Analysis

Citi Trends disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Citi Trends reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Citi Trends Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
$236.58M6.9041.77%2.07%-2.24%-33.43%
66
Neutral
£1.86B11.366.20%3.10%0.61%-17.57%
61
Neutral
$273.29M-29.52%1.85%-337.77%
GCGCO
57
Neutral
$239.83M-3.07%1.85%22.34%
56
Neutral
$258.03M1,320.000.23%3.01%
DBDBI
51
Neutral
$148.43M-9.20%7.07%-4.22%-386.70%
40
Underperform
$108.40M-521.67%-12.15%75.86%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CTRN
Citi Trends
32.95
13.55
69.85%
DBI
Designer Brands
3.04
-3.46
-53.23%
GCO
Genesco
22.25
-2.95
-11.71%
PLCE
Children's Place
4.89
-3.18
-39.41%
ZUMZ
Zumiez
14.52
-6.04
-29.38%
JILL
JJill
15.48
-18.16
-53.98%

Citi Trends Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Citi Trends Approves Share Increase at Annual Meeting
Positive
Jun 9, 2025

On June 5, 2025, Citi Trends, Inc. held its annual stockholders meeting virtually, where stockholders approved an amendment to increase shares under the 2021 Incentive Plan by 500,000. Additionally, eight directors were elected, executive compensation was approved on a non-binding basis, and Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026, indicating strong governance and strategic planning for future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (CTRN) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Citi Trends stock, see the CTRN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 28, 2025