Saia (SAIA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.60B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 610.22K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 34.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: 1.96%
• EPS Growth: -24.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,300
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Trucking
• EPS (TTM): 1.77
• Shares Outstanding: 26,669,521
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 665,832
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 610,222
• PEG Ratio: -1.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.70
• P/FCF Ratio: 319.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.93
• 1Y Price Target: $411.81
• Price Target Upside: 27.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.61
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.37B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $357.00 ▲(10.65% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/04/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/04/26

Overall score is supported by a conservatively positioned balance sheet and an improving technical uptrend, alongside constructive 2026 guidance (OR improvement and expected FCF generation). Offsetting these positives are weaker cash conversion/free-cash-flow volatility, near-term operating and volume/tonnage pressures highlighted in the latest quarter, and a high P/E that leaves less room for execution missteps.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.06 in 2025) and meaningful equity growth provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and liquidity risk, supports sustained capital investment, selective M&A or shareholder returns, and cushions the company through freight cycles.

National network expansion

Completion of a national LTL footprint and profitable ramping terminals increase addressable markets and network density. Higher density and cross-market capability support longer-term yield, scalable economics and material incremental margins as volumes recover and terminals mature.

Consistent operating cash flow

Stable and growing operating cash flow demonstrates underlying cash earning power. Reliable OCF underpins the ability to fund maintenance capex, pay down debt, and invest in network growth without continual reliance on external financing, strengthening long-term financial resilience.

Negative Factors

Free cash flow volatility

Large swings in free cash flow driven by heavy investments and timing can constrain strategic optionality. Volatile FCF reduces predictable funding for buybacks/dividends and raises dependency on strong operating performance to justify earlier capital outlays and future returns.

Volume and tonnage pressure

Sustained declines in shipments and tonnage reduce revenue density and limit operating leverage from the national network. Lighter loads and lower freight density diminish yield per shipment and make it harder to absorb fixed costs, prolonging margin recovery during muted demand.

Rising cost per shipment and labor inflation

Underlying wage and benefits inflation, plus higher per-shipment costs, create persistent margin pressure. If volume and mix remain weak, the company faces structural cost headwinds that require sustained pricing power or productivity gains to restore prior profitability levels.

Saia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Saia, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a transportation company in North America. The company provides less-than-truckload services for shipments between 400 and 10,000 pounds; and other value-added services, including non-asset truckload, expedited, and logistics services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 176 owned and leased facilities; and owned approximately 5,600 tractors and 19,300 trailers. The company was formerly known as SCS Transportation, Inc. and changed its name to Saia, Inc. in July 2006. Saia, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Johns Creek, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Saia makes money primarily by charging customers to transport freight through its less-than-truckload (LTL) network. Revenue is generated when shippers pay freight rates for moving palletized and packaged goods from origin to destination, with pricing generally influenced by shipment weight/classification, distance, service level (e.g., standard vs. time-definite), accessorial requirements (e.g., liftgate, inside delivery, residential delivery), and fuel surcharges that adjust with diesel price benchmarks. The company’s core revenue stream is LTL linehaul and pickup-and-delivery services performed using its network of terminals, city drivers, and linehaul tractors/trailers; shipments are consolidated at terminals and moved through the network to improve equipment utilization and yield per hundredweight. Saia also generates revenue from ancillary services tied to freight movement (accessorial fees) and from logistics-related offerings associated with its transportation services. Significant factors contributing to earnings include shipment volumes and weight, yield (revenue per hundredweight or per shipment), network density and terminal utilization, labor and purchased transportation costs, fuel costs (partly offset through fuel surcharges), and the company’s ability to manage operating ratio through efficient routing, dock productivity, and capacity discipline. Specific partnership details are null.

Saia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong balance sheet with very low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.06) and meaningful equity growth supports resilience. Revenue has grown steadily long-term, but 2025 profit dollars stepped down versus 2024, and free cash flow has been inconsistent (notably sharply negative in 2024 and only modestly positive in 2025), which weighs on the score.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily from 2020 to 2025 (annual growth ranging from ~2% to ~26%), showing a solid long-term trajectory. Profitability was strong in 2021–2024 with net margins around ~11%–13% and healthy operating profitability, but 2025 annual data shows a meaningful step-down in profit dollars versus 2024 (net income down from ~$362M to ~$255M) and margins are not available for 2025, which reduces visibility into the magnitude of the slowdown.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively positioned: leverage is low across the period, with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.06 in 2025 (from ~0.14 in 2024) and equity expanding materially over time (~$0.96B in 2020 to ~$2.58B in 2025). Return on equity was strong in 2021–2024 (~16%–23%), supporting high-quality earnings generation, though 2025 return on equity is not available, limiting the latest-period profitability read-through.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently strong and relatively stable (roughly ~$309M in 2020 rising to about ~$595M in 2025), indicating good cash earnings power. However, free cash flow is volatile and turned sharply negative in 2024 (about -$460M) and was only modestly positive in 2025 (~$27M), suggesting heavy investment/capital spending and weaker near-term cash conversion versus profits.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.23B	3.21B	2.88B	2.79B	2.29B
Gross Profit	765.19M	644.41M	598.93M	590.96M	451.69M
EBITDA	602.41M	695.04M	647.61M	627.86M	477.69M
Net Income	255.04M	362.06M	354.86M	357.42M	253.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.48B	3.17B	2.58B	2.17B	1.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	19.72M	19.47M	296.21M	187.39M	106.59M
Total Debt	418.11M	324.46M	138.71M	154.51M	160.38M
Total Liabilities	904.98M	855.59M	642.07M	595.37M	624.92M
Stockholders Equity	2.58B	2.31B	1.94B	1.58B	1.22B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	27.33M	-459.86M	138.07M	105.60M	96.85M
Operating Cash Flow	594.97M	583.70M	577.95M	473.03M	382.59M
Investing Cash Flow	-552.52M	-1.04B	-448.70M	-365.51M	-277.85M
Financing Cash Flow	-42.20M	175.42M	-20.42M	-26.71M	-23.46M

Saia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 322.63
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAIA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 322.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 373.58, below the 50-day MA of 370.89, and above the 200-day MA of 315.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -15.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAIA.

Saia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAIA	68 Neutral	$8.60B	34.23	10.30%	―	1.96%	-24.55%
SNDR	66 Neutral	$4.18B	44.87	3.44%	1.40%	5.46%	2.31%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
KNX	60 Neutral	$8.59B	128.70	0.93%	1.34%	>-0.01%	279.47%
ARCB	56 Neutral	$1.94B	28.19	4.61%	0.62%	-5.34%	-48.16%
MRTN	54 Neutral	$946.70M	53.18	2.27%	2.07%	-9.74%	-42.57%
WERN	49 Neutral	$1.63B	-126.32	1.78%	1.84%	-3.42%	-43.86%

Saia Corporate Events

Saia Reports Mixed Early 2026 LTL Operating Trends

On March 3, 2026, Saia reported operating data for January and February 2026 showing mixed trends in its less-than-truckload business versus a year earlier. January saw LTL shipments per workday fall 2.1%, tonnage per workday drop 7.0% and weight per shipment decline 5.1% compared with January 2025, underscoring softer freight density early in the quarter.

In February 2026, LTL shipments per workday edged up 0.3% while tonnage per workday was still down 2.7% and weight per shipment decreased 3.0% from February 2025, pointing to modest volume improvement but lighter loads. For the quarter to date, shipments per workday were down 0.9% and tonnage per workday fell 4.8%, though Saia highlighted solid pricing power with contractual renewals of 6.6% in January and 5.9% in February, a supportive sign for revenue quality despite softer tonnage.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAIA) stock is a Buy with a $500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saia stock, see the SAIA Stock Forecast page.

Saia Highlights 2025 Results and National LTL Expansion

Saia reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 performance on a Feb. 10, 2026 earnings call, highlighting that 2025 marked its first full year operating a national LTL network and underscoring record capital investments of more than $2 billion over the past three years to expand its footprint. Management said the broader reach has enabled increased market share gains, stronger ties with legacy accounts and access to new customers, even as a muted freight environment and regional softness, particularly an 18% volume decline in Southern California, pressured mix and revenue per shipment.

Fourth quarter 2025 revenue edged up 0.1% year on year to a record $790 million for any fourth quarter, with tonnage down 1.5% and shipments per day down 0.5%, while fuel surcharge revenue increased and yield including fuel rose 1.6%. Profitability was hurt by higher self-insurance costs, including about $4.7 million of reserve increases tied to prior-year accidents, pushing the operating ratio to 91.9%, but the company pointed to improving safety metrics, including a 21% reduction in preventable accident frequency and a record-low cargo claims ratio, as evidence that recent investments in safety and operations are enhancing service quality and long-term competitive positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAIA) stock is a Hold with a $415.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saia stock, see the SAIA Stock Forecast page.