Republic Airways Holdings (RJET)
NASDAQ:RJET
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Republic Airways Holdings
(NASDAQ:RJET)
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Rating:38Underperform
Price Target:
$16.00
▼(-15.75% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:12/03/25
Mesa Air Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by significant losses and high leverage. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and the valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio. The lack of earnings call data and corporate events further limits positive influences on the score.
Positive Factors
Strategic Partnerships
These agreements provide stable revenue streams and reduce market risk, ensuring consistent cash flow and operational stability.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage poses financial risk, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, impacting long-term stability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strategic Partnerships
These agreements provide stable revenue streams and reduce market risk, ensuring consistent cash flow and operational stability.
Read all positive factors
Republic Airways Holdings (RJET) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$926.76M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)108.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.6
Beta (1Y)1.31
Revenue Growth-15.06%
EPS Growth-119.79%
CountryUS
Employees6,400
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.12
Shares Outstanding46,829,475
10 Day Avg. Volume160,526
30 Day Avg. Volume108,004
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.07
Price to Book (P/B)1.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.83
P/FCF Ratio-36.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.78
Enterprise Value/Ebitda28.46
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Republic Airways Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Republic Airways Holdings Inc. provides scheduled passenger services. It operates a fleet of approximately 240 aircraft and offers scheduled passenger service with 1,000 daily flights to 80 cities across the U.S., Canada, the Caribbean, and Centra...
How the Company Makes Money
Mesa Air Group generates revenue primarily through capacity purchase agreements with major airlines, such as American Airlines and United Airlines. Under these agreements, Mesa operates flights on behalf of these airlines, receiving compensation f...
Republic Airways Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong operating and financial outcomes — double-digit revenue growth, sizable improvements in adjusted EBITDAR, robust cash generation, fleet scale and a clear 2026 guidance framework — while acknowledging near-term disruption from the government shutdown/winter weather, a high one-time Q4 tax rate, and ongoing merger integration costs and complexity. Management presented a multi-year integration plan and set measurable targets for leverage reduction and earnings growth, indicating confidence in the upside once harmonization is complete.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 Revenue and Adjusted EPS
Q4 total revenue of $464 million, up 21% year-over-year; adjusted EPS of $0.54 for the quarter (excluding merger items and with adjusted tax rate).
Negative Updates
Significant Non-Controllable Cancellations and Weather/Shutdown Impact
Q4 experienced ~3,200 more non-controllable cancellations vs. Q4 2024 due to the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, severe winter weather and air traffic control staffing, contributing to a 3% lower completion factor for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 Revenue and Adjusted EPS
Q4 total revenue of $464 million, up 21% year-over-year; adjusted EPS of $0.54 for the quarter (excluding merger items and with adjusted tax rate).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Republic guided 2026 toward a full‑year run rate with block hours of 865,000+ (reflecting a full year of Mesa flying), total revenues of about $2.0 billion, and adjusted EBITDAR of roughly $380 million; capital plans include CapEx of about $90 million net of new financings (≈$170 million gross) and disciplined debt extinguishment of ~$165 million, with a leverage target below 2.2x by year‑end 2026 (long‑term target <1.5x). The outlook assumes improved aircraft availability and utilization as Mesa integration milestones progress, a defined Embraer delivery schedule through 2029 (three United placements this year and ~26 unallocated deliveries thereafter, first delivery mid‑Q1 2027), and a focus on balancing integration execution with debt reduction to drive stronger earnings in 2027.Republic Airways Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
30
Negative
Balance Sheet
25
Negative
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | Sep 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 588.71M | 1.47B | 1.43B | 1.33B | 503.59M | 545.07M |
| Gross Profit | 135.45M | 365.00M | 323.50M | 339.50M | -1.92M | 48.58M |
| EBITDA | 60.85M | 261.60M | 296.50M | 280.50M | 31.07M | 78.63M |
| Net Income | -98.97M | 64.60M | 54.80M | 67.80M | 16.59M | 27.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 158.93M | 2.77B | 2.73B | 1.27B | 1.60B | 1.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 41.78M | 302.00M | 342.20M | 61.02M | 123.87M | 102.84M |
| Total Debt | 103.10M | 1.14B | 1.24B | 633.70M | 718.05M | 838.19M |
| Total Liabilities | 211.57M | 1.65B | 1.68B | 960.19M | 1.12B | 1.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | -52.64M | 1.12B | 1.05B | 308.17M | 488.05M | 457.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -39.63M | -33.50M | -62.40M | -9.80M | 115.72M | 148.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -34.61M | 226.10M | 329.20M | 189.70M | 132.87M | 174.66M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 95.45M | -105.50M | -420.90M | -137.00M | -33.47M | -26.67M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -62.05M | -102.20M | 107.10M | -189.80M | -78.37M | -117.66M |
Republic Airways Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
18.99
Price Trends
18.76
Positive
19.20
Positive
18.94
Positive
Market Momentum
0.17
Negative
58.27
Neutral
86.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RJET, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.84, above the 50-day MA of 18.76, and above the 200-day MA of 18.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RJET.
Republic Airways Holdings Risk Analysis
Republic Airways Holdings disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Republic Airways Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Republic Airways Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | $938.60M | 14.47 | 8.62% | ― | 4.27% | 28.47% | |
48 Neutral | $1.58B | -34.43 | -4.22% | ― | 3.29% | -983.31% | |
46 Neutral | $1.75B | -2.79 | -26.05% | ― | -2.49% | 47.88% | |
45 Neutral | $877.11M | -7.87 | -27.39% | ― | 1.77% | -1964.48% | |
38 Underperform | $926.76M | 9.64 | -15.54% | ― | -15.06% | -119.79% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RJET
Republic Airways Holdings
19.79
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19.94%
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Republic Airways Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Republic Airways Appoints David Grizzle as CEO
Neutral
Dec 15, 2025
David Grizzle, who has been the non-executive Chairman of Republic Airways Holdings Inc. since 2017, was appointed as Chairman and CEO in July 2025 due to the unexpected departure of the former CEO to the Federal Aviation Administration. Grizzle w...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.