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Republic Airways Holdings (RJET)
NASDAQ:RJET
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Republic Airways Holdings (RJET) AI Stock Analysis

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RJET

Republic Airways Holdings

(NASDAQ:RJET)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$19.50
▲(2.69% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (growing revenue, positive earnings, and better leverage), tempered by persistent negative free cash flow that limits financial flexibility. Valuation is a notable positive (low P/E with a dividend), while technicals are a meaningful drag because the stock trades below major moving averages. The latest earnings call was supportive overall due to raised 2026 guidance and strong operational metrics, though leverage and ongoing integration costs remain key watch items.
Positive Factors
Business Model (CPA)
Republic’s CPA model transfers ticketing and demand risk to major airline partners while it provides aircraft, crews, maintenance and operations. This creates durable, contractually backed revenue tied to block hours and performance metrics, improving predictability and partner-driven demand visibility over months to years.
Negative Factors
Persistent Negative Free Cash Flow
Despite improving operating cash flow, consecutive negative free cash flow reduces capacity to deleverage, invest selectively, or return capital. Ongoing capital intensity and reinvestment needs mean cash conversion risk persists until operational efficiencies or synergy savings materially reduce capex/working capital requirements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Business Model (CPA)
Republic’s CPA model transfers ticketing and demand risk to major airline partners while it provides aircraft, crews, maintenance and operations. This creates durable, contractually backed revenue tied to block hours and performance metrics, improving predictability and partner-driven demand visibility over months to years.
Read all positive factors

Republic Airways Holdings (RJET) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Republic Airways Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Republic Airways Holdings Inc., founded in 1974, specializes in offering scheduled air passenger services. The company operates a substantial fleet of approximately 240 aircraft, which allows it to conduct around 1,000 daily flights. These service...
How the Company Makes Money
Republic Airways primarily makes money through long-term capacity purchase agreements (CPAs) with major airlines. Under a CPA structure, Republic operates flights marketed and sold by its airline partners (typically under the partner’s brand), whi...

Republic Airways Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational performance, sequential growth in block hours and revenues, improved completion metrics, meaningful progress on the Republic–Mesa integration (FAA approval of the first revision cycle) and a raised full-year guidance. Offsetting items include short-term weather-related disruption in July, continued integration costs and a timeline for realizing full synergy benefits through late 2027 into 2028, plus continued leverage and some unallocated fleet. On balance, the positives—notably revenue and utilization growth, improved margins on an adjusted basis, and upgraded guidance—outweigh the challenges.
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Quarterly revenues rose approximately 8% sequentially to about $571 million, driven by strong partner demand and higher block hour production.
Negative Updates
Severe Q3 Weather Impact
July severe weather reduced completion factor to 91% through July 28, below levels seen in winter storm months and negatively impacting the start of Q3 operations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Revenue Growth
Quarterly revenues rose approximately 8% sequentially to about $571 million, driven by strong partner demand and higher block hour production.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management raised full‑year 2026 guidance: block hour production is now targeted at approximately 880,000 hours (up ~2% from the prior at least 865,000), revenue is expected to be greater than $2.1 billion (up from >$2.0B) and adjusted EBITDAR is guided to $395–$405 million (up from >$380M); there are no changes to previously issued guidance for capital expenditures or debt reduction. They cited Q2 results and operating trends supporting the raise (Q2 adjusted net income $41.3M or $0.89/sh, adjusted pretax $57.4M, Q2 adjusted EBITDAR $109.6M) while noting recent July weather weakness (completion factor ~91% through July 28) but a 99.99% controllable completion factor for the quarter. Balance‑sheet and fleet context included $278M unrestricted cash, $1.2B total debt and lease liabilities, repayment of $43M of debt in the quarter, Q2 capex of ~$21M, a 314‑aircraft fleet (275 on CPAs, 31 leased to a partner, 8 unallocated), and 26 Embraer delivery positions with the next scheduled in April 2028.

Republic Airways Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Improving operating and net profitability alongside steadily expanding revenue supports a solid mid-to-upper score, and leverage has improved materially (debt-to-equity down to ~0.83x by 2025). The main constraint is cash conversion: despite stronger operating cash flow in 2025, free cash flow has been negative for several consecutive years (2022–2025), limiting flexibility for deleveraging and shareholder returns.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Mar 2025Dec 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.08B1.68B1.47B1.43B1.33B503.59M
Gross Profit279.51M466.00M365.00M323.50M339.50M-1.92M
EBITDA157.51M300.30M261.60M296.50M280.50M139.99M
Net Income17.78M76.20M64.60M54.80M67.80M16.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.27B3.28B2.77B2.73B1.27B1.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments295.60M296.50M302.00M342.20M61.02M123.87M
Total Debt1.24B1.23B1.14B1.24B633.70M718.05M
Total Liabilities1.91B1.95B1.65B1.68B960.19M1.12B
Stockholders Equity1.35B1.33B1.12B1.05B308.17M488.05M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-73.94M-88.70M-33.50M-62.40M-9.80M115.72M
Operating Cash Flow413.75M322.00M226.10M329.20M189.70M132.87M
Investing Cash Flow-620.87M-350.90M-105.50M-420.90M-137.00M-33.47M
Financing Cash Flow170.19M54.70M-102.20M107.10M-189.80M-78.37M

Republic Airways Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price18.99
Price Trends
50DMA
18.97
Positive
100DMA
19.24
Positive
200DMA
19.57
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.71
Negative
RSI
59.85
Neutral
STOCH
79.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RJET, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.00, above the 50-day MA of 18.97, and below the 200-day MA of 19.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RJET.

Republic Airways Holdings Risk Analysis

Republic Airways Holdings disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Republic Airways Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Republic Airways Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$4.15B10.4315.02%9.10%1.55%
67
Neutral
$967.03M-5.634.88%299.75%87.78%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
61
Neutral
$1.55B-3.99-120.34%9.95%-1057.36%
54
Neutral
$2.64B-49.293.28%3.31%82.72%
50
Neutral
$2.28B-2.50-45.51%3.99%-119.13%
46
Neutral
$5.29B-30.03-4.50%9.79%-161.50%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RJET
Republic Airways Holdings
21.39
5.19
32.04%
ALK
Alaska Air
49.96
-1.18
-2.31%
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
95.61
46.57
94.96%
JBLU
JetBlue Airways
6.07
1.80
42.15%
SKYW
SkyWest
111.84
2.24
2.04%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
7.38
4.07
122.96%

Republic Airways Holdings Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Republic Airways appoints new CEO and realigns leadership
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 12, 2026, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. expanded its board to seven members and appointed incoming President and Chief Executive Officer Matthew J. Koscal as a director, effective June 15, 2026, with no separate board compensation. Concur...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Republic Airways Shareholders Endorse Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 26, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on May 21, 2026, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. shareholders elected six directors—Ellen N. Artist, David Grizzle, Michael C. Lenz, Ruth Okediji, Barry W. Ridings, and James E. Sweetnam—to ser...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 31, 2026