Republic Airways Holdings (RJET)
NASDAQ:RJET
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Republic Airways Holdings
(NASDAQ:RJET)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▲(0.05% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/10/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (profitability recovery and better leverage) but held back by persistent negative free cash flow. Technical signals are meaningfully bearish and further pressure the score, while valuation/dividend are reasonable and corporate events point to governance and leadership stability.
Positive Factors
CPA business model
The CPA model provides durable, contract-based revenue where major airline partners bear ticketing and demand risk. That structure creates more predictable cash flows tied to capacity and performance, letting Republic focus on operational efficiency and long-term contract renewal dynamics.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative FCF
Sustained negative free cash flow, despite rising operating cash flow, constrains the company's ability to return capital, pay down debt aggressively, or absorb shocks. Over 2–6 months this limits strategic flexibility and could force tradeoffs between capex, maintenance and shareholder distributions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
CPA business model
The CPA model provides durable, contract-based revenue where major airline partners bear ticketing and demand risk. That structure creates more predictable cash flows tied to capacity and performance, letting Republic focus on operational efficiency and long-term contract renewal dynamics.
Read all positive factors
Republic Airways Holdings (RJET) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$854.64M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)108.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.8
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth159.73%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees6,400
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.88
Shares Outstanding46,829,475
10 Day Avg. Volume160,526
30 Day Avg. Volume108,004
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.10
Price to Book (P/B)0.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio-8.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.14
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.61
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Republic Airways Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Republic Airways Holdings Inc., founded in 1974, specializes in offering scheduled air passenger services. The company operates a substantial fleet of approximately 240 aircraft, which allows it to conduct around 1,000 daily flights. These service...
How the Company Makes Money
Republic Airways primarily makes money through long-term capacity purchase agreements (CPAs) with major airlines. Under a CPA structure, Republic operates flights marketed and sold by its airline partners (typically under the partner’s brand), whi...
Republic Airways Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented several clear operational and financial positives — double-digit revenue and EBITDAR growth, a completed fleet transition with United, strong block-hour growth from the Mesa acquisition, tangible integration progress (especially back-office and IT), and reaffirmed full-year guidance. These strengths are tempered by transitory but material winter-weather disruption, ongoing merger/integration costs and a multi-year harmonization timeline, the deferral of Embraer deliveries to 2028, and continued leverage that management must actively reduce. On balance, the highlights — including strong organic and acquisition-driven growth and measured integration execution — outweigh the lowlights, which are largely execution/timing and macro uncertainties rather than structural operational failures.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $527.4 million in Q1 2026, up 34% year-over-year (first full quarter including Mesa operations).
Negative Updates
Severe Winter Weather Disruption
January/February winter storms (Fern and Hernando) materially impacted operations: one day saw 87% of the airline unable to operate; full-up completion factor declined to 94% from 97% in prior-year Q1 (down ~3 points). Management did not quantify the exact earnings hit from weather.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $527.4 million in Q1 2026, up 34% year-over-year (first full quarter including Mesa operations).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Republic reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance — revenues in excess of $2.0 billion, adjusted EBITDAR above $380 million and at least 865,000 block hours — with CapEx about $170 million (primarily aircraft/engine spend, completion of the Carmel training campus and maintenance), planned principal repayments of $165 million and roughly $75 million of new debt proceeds; the company aims to reduce net leverage below 2.2x by year‑end 2026 (longer‑term target <1.5x) after reporting Q1 adjusted net leverage of 2.7x. Q1 results included $527.4 million of revenue, $100.1 million of adjusted EBITDAR, $47.1 million of adjusted pretax income, $0.73 adjusted net income per diluted share, $58 million of cash from operations and $9.5 million of merger/integration costs, and management noted the guidance is reaffirmed despite geopolitical uncertainty and the deferral of the next Embraer delivery to April 2028.Republic Airways Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.68B | 1.47B | 1.43B | 1.33B | 503.59M |
| Gross Profit | 466.00M | 365.00M | 323.50M | 339.50M | -1.92M |
| EBITDA | 300.30M | 261.60M | 296.50M | 280.50M | 139.99M |
| Net Income | 76.20M | 64.60M | 54.80M | 67.80M | 16.59M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.28B | 2.77B | 2.73B | 1.27B | 1.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 296.50M | 302.00M | 342.20M | 61.02M | 123.87M |
| Total Debt | 1.23B | 1.14B | 1.24B | 633.70M | 718.05M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.95B | 1.65B | 1.68B | 960.19M | 1.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.33B | 1.12B | 1.05B | 308.17M | 488.05M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -88.70M | -33.50M | -62.40M | -9.80M | 115.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 322.00M | 226.10M | 329.20M | 189.70M | 132.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -350.90M | -105.50M | -420.90M | -137.00M | -33.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 54.70M | -102.20M | 107.10M | -189.80M | -78.37M |
Republic Airways Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
18.99
Price Trends
19.81
Negative
19.20
Negative
19.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.70
Positive
44.80
Neutral
52.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RJET, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.78, below the 50-day MA of 19.81, and below the 200-day MA of 19.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RJET.
Republic Airways Holdings Risk Analysis
Republic Airways Holdings disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Republic Airways Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Republic Airways Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $854.64M | 21.80 | 5.97% | ― | 159.73% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $2.46B | -50.52 | -3.25% | ― | 3.31% | 82.72% | |
52 Neutral | $1.44B | -4.11 | -88.57% | ― | -0.47% | -632.83% | |
50 Neutral | $1.86B | -2.77 | -33.13% | ― | -0.52% | -138.22% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RJET
Republic Airways Holdings
18.43
4.60
33.26%
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Republic Airways Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Republic Airways Shareholders Endorse Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 26, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on May 21, 2026, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. shareholders elected six directors—Ellen N. Artist, David Grizzle, Michael C. Lenz, Ruth Okediji, Barry W. Ridings, and James E. Sweetnam—to ser...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Republic Airways Names Matthew Koscal New CEO and President
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 22, 2026, Republic Airways’ board promoted Matthew J. Koscal to become president and chief executive officer, effective June 15, 2026, completing a previously announced succession plan. Current CEO and chairman David Grizzle, who le...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.