Republic Airways Holdings (RJET) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $48.03M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 108.00K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.15
• Revenue Growth: -15.06%
• EPS Growth: -119.79%
• Country: US
• Employees: 6,400
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Airlines, Airports & Air Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 2,792,443
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 160,526
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 108,004
• PEG Ratio: 1.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.83
• P/FCF Ratio: -36.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 18.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -5.46
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 38 Underperform
• Price Target: $16.00 ▼(-15.75% Downside)

Mesa Air Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its poor financial performance, characterized by significant losses and high leverage. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and the valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio. The lack of earnings call data and corporate events further limits positive influences on the score.

Positive Factors

Strategic Partnerships

These agreements provide stable revenue streams and reduce market risk, ensuring consistent cash flow and operational stability.

Fleet Efficiency

Operating efficient aircraft models helps maintain lower operational costs and enhances reliability, supporting long-term profitability.

Free Cash Flow Growth

Improving free cash flow indicates better cash management, providing more resources for debt reduction and potential reinvestment.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses financial risk, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns, impacting long-term stability.

Declining Revenue

Decreasing revenue indicates challenges in maintaining market share and competitiveness, affecting future growth prospects.

Negative Profit Margin

Sustained losses reflect operational inefficiencies and high expenses, threatening long-term viability and shareholder value.

Republic Airways Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Republic Airways Holdings Inc. provides scheduled passenger services. It operates a fleet of approximately 240 aircraft and offers scheduled passenger service with 1,000 daily flights to 80 cities across the U.S., Canada, the Caribbean, and Central America. The company was founded in 1974 and is based in Indianapolis, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Mesa Air Group generates revenue primarily through capacity purchase agreements with major airlines, such as American Airlines and United Airlines. Under these agreements, Mesa operates flights on behalf of these airlines, receiving compensation for operating costs and a profit margin. Key revenue streams include ticket sales, passenger service fees, and government subsidies for regional air service. Additionally, Mesa may benefit from partnerships with other carriers for code-sharing agreements, enhancing its route offerings and contributing to its overall earnings.

Republic Airways Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mesa Air Group is facing significant financial challenges. The income statement shows declining revenue and substantial losses, with a negative net profit margin of -39.94%. The balance sheet reveals high leverage and negative equity, with a concerning debt-to-equity ratio of -1.96. Cash flow analysis indicates some improvement in free cash flow, but overall cash management is weak.

Income Statement

Mesa Air Group's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a negative net profit margin of -39.94%, indicating substantial losses. Revenue has declined by 6.05% compared to the previous year, and the EBIT and EBITDA margins are both negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Despite a gross profit margin of 31.77%, the overall profitability is severely impacted by high operating expenses and declining revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet highlights financial instability, with a negative stockholders' equity of -$52.64 million in the TTM period, leading to a concerning debt-to-equity ratio of -1.96. This indicates that liabilities significantly exceed equity, posing a risk to financial stability. The return on equity is positive at 3.80%, but this is due to the negative equity, which distorts the metric. Overall, the balance sheet reflects high leverage and financial distress.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some positive aspects, with a free cash flow growth rate of 41.98% in the TTM period. However, the operating cash flow is negative, and the operating cash flow to net income ratio is -0.27, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.15, suggesting that free cash flow is slightly better than net income, but overall cash flow management remains a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	588.71M	1.47B	1.43B	1.33B	503.59M	545.07M
Gross Profit	135.45M	365.00M	323.50M	339.50M	-1.92M	48.58M
EBITDA	-158.94M	261.60M	296.50M	280.50M	139.99M	163.41M
Net Income	-98.97M	64.60M	54.80M	67.80M	16.59M	27.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	158.93M	2.77B	2.73B	1.27B	1.60B	1.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	41.78M	302.00M	342.20M	61.02M	123.87M	102.84M
Total Debt	103.10M	1.14B	1.24B	633.70M	718.05M	838.19M
Total Liabilities	211.57M	1.65B	1.68B	960.19M	1.12B	1.19B
Stockholders Equity	-52.64M	1.12B	1.05B	308.17M	488.05M	457.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-9.70M	-33.50M	-62.40M	-9.80M	115.72M	148.00M
Operating Cash Flow	41.58M	226.10M	329.20M	189.70M	132.87M	174.66M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.28M	-105.50M	-420.90M	-137.00M	-33.47M	-26.67M
Financing Cash Flow	-72.38M	-102.20M	107.10M	-189.80M	-78.37M	-117.66M

Republic Airways Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RJET, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.29, below the 50-day MA of 19.35, and above the 200-day MA of 18.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.11 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RJET.

Republic Airways Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SNCY	69 Neutral	$937.58M	16.71	9.99%	―	4.27%	28.47%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
ALGT	54 Neutral	$1.62B	-5.59	-25.37%	―	3.29%	-983.31%
JBLU	49 Neutral	$1.77B	-3.16	-25.29%	―	-2.49%	47.88%
ULCC	47 Neutral	$1.06B	-8.45	-27.87%	―	1.77%	-1964.48%
RJET	38 Underperform	$48.03M	-0.23	-509.71%	―	-15.06%	-119.79%

Republic Airways Holdings Corporate Events

Republic Airways Appoints David Grizzle as CEO

David Grizzle, who has been the non-executive Chairman of Republic Airways Holdings Inc. since 2017, was appointed as Chairman and CEO in July 2025 due to the unexpected departure of the former CEO to the Federal Aviation Administration. Grizzle will serve as CEO during the integration of Mesa Airlines, with plans for Matthew Koscal, the current President and Chief Commercial Officer, to be promoted to CEO in 2026. Grizzle will then return to his role as non-executive Chairman. Final decisions on succession will be made by the Board of Directors at a later date.

The most recent analyst rating on (RJET) stock is a Sell with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Republic Airways Holdings stock, see the RJET Stock Forecast page.