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Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN)
NASDAQ:REYN

Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN) AI Stock Analysis

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REYN

Reynolds Consumer Products

(NASDAQ:REYN)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$25.00
â–²(0.77% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/05/26
The score reflects solid cash generation and a reasonable valuation with an attractive dividend, offset by weak top-line trajectory and margin pressure. Technical signals are mixed and the latest guidance emphasizes stability amid ongoing category and commodity headwinds.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Consistently positive free cash flow (FCF) provides durable funding for dividends, deleveraging, and capital investment. FCF of $316M in 2025 supports the company’s ability to finance automation projects and voluntary debt paydowns without relying on external funding, enhancing financial resilience.
Brand strength & share gains
Sustained share gains and a portfolio of household brands (Reynolds, Hefty) create durable shelf presence and repeat purchase behavior. Broad category outperformance indicates pricing and distribution advantages that underpin recurring revenue and mitigate competitive pressure over the medium term.
Productivity & automation progress
Ongoing productivity initiatives and automation investments lower unit costs and SG&A, supporting margin recovery over time. Structural efficiency gains reduce exposure to input cost swings, improve operating leverage as volumes normalize, and fund future innovation without recurring cost increases.
Negative Factors
Multi-year revenue erosion
Sustained top-line decline reduces scale and pricing leverage, increasing vulnerability to fixed-cost absorption and margin pressure. Multi-year revenue softness signals structural demand challenges in key categories (e.g., foam) that may limit long-term growth unless product mix or new channels reverse the trend.
Commodity & tariff exposure
Large commodity and tariff cost shocks compress gross margins and constrain pricing flexibility, especially in foil where aluminum elasticity is high. Persistent input-cost volatility can force repeat pricing actions, erode promo effectiveness, and leave margins exposed if consumers or retailers resist further price increases.
Leverage and balance sheet data risk
Net leverage remains meaningful for a consumer-packaged-goods company and, while trending down to ~2.1x, still limits financial flexibility. Inconsistent 2025 reporting raises data-quality concerns, complicating assessment of solvency and capital allocation risk over the medium term.

Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Reynolds Consumer Products Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionReynolds Consumer Products Inc. produces and sells products in cooking, waste and storage, and tableware product categories in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Reynolds Cooking & Baking, Hefty Waste & Storage, Hefty Tableware, and Presto Products. The Reynolds Cooking & Baking segment produces foil, disposable aluminum pans, parchment paper, freezer paper, wax paper, butcher paper, plastic wrap, baking cups, oven bags, and slow cooker liners under the Reynolds Wrap, Reynolds KITCHENS, and E-Z Foil brands in the United States, as well as under the ALCAN brand in Canada and under the Diamond brand internationally. The Hefty Waste & Storage segment offers trash bags under the Hefty Ultra Strong and Hefty Strong brands; and food storage bags under the Hefty and Baggies brands. This segment also provides a suite of products, including blue and clear recycling bags, compostable bags, bags made from recycled materials, and the Hefty EnergyBag Program. The Hefty Tableware segment offers disposable and compostable plates, bowls, platters, cups, and cutlery under the Hefty brand. The Presto Products segment primarily sells store brand products in food storage bags, trash bags, reusable storage containers, and plastic wrap categories. Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. offers both branded and store brand products to grocery stores, mass merchants, warehouse clubs, discount chains, dollar stores, drug stores, home improvement stores, military outlets, and eCommerce retailers. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois. Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Packaging Finance Limited.
How the Company Makes MoneyReynolds Consumer Products generates revenue primarily through the sale of its consumer goods to retail and wholesale distributors. The company benefits from a strong brand presence, which aids in driving consumer loyalty and repeat purchases. Its revenue model is largely based on product sales across various distribution channels, including supermarkets, mass merchants, and e-commerce platforms. Key revenue streams include sales of aluminum foil, food storage bags, and trash bags, which are staples in many households. Additionally, Reynolds leverages partnerships with major retailers to enhance product visibility and availability, contributing to its overall sales growth. The company also invests in marketing and promotional activities to boost brand recognition and attract new customers.

Reynolds Consumer Products Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear operational progress and financial discipline (share gains, improved service levels, strong free cash flow, reduced leverage, RGM and pricing success, and Q4 EBITDA growth) against persistent category and input-cost headwinds (pronounced foam declines, aluminum-driven foil elasticity risk, modest full-year EBITDA decline, and embedded headwinds in 2026 guidance). Management communicated confidence in their strategy, actionable plans (productivity, automation, RGM), and financial flexibility to invest, while acknowledging near-term volume and margin pressures.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Net revenues of $1.03 billion in Q4 2025, representing 1% growth versus $1.02 billion in Q4 2024.
Full-Year Revenue and Cash Flow
Full-year net revenues of $3.7 billion, up 1% year-over-year, and strong free cash flow of $316 million for 2025.
Adjusted EBITDA and EPS Performance
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $220 million, a 3% increase versus the year-ago quarter. Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $670 million (vs $678 million prior year). Adjusted EPS of $0.59 in Q4 (vs $0.58) and full-year adjusted EPS of $1.66 (vs $1.67).
Share Gains and Category Outperformance
Outperformed categories by over 1 point for 2025 and by 2 points in Q4. Broad share gains across the six largest core categories including Hefty waste and food bags, Reynolds Wrap, parchment, bakeware, and Hefty party cups.
Service Levels and Distribution Wins
High service levels with case fill rates in the high 90s and approximately five points of incremental distribution gained in Q4, supporting incremental shelf presence.
Revenue Growth Management (RGM) and Pricing Effectiveness
Approximately 11 points of pricing present in Q4 with only a 2-point decline in retail volumes in foil as per scanner data, reflecting improved RGM and pricing/price-pack optimization to offset commodity inflation.
Cost and Productivity Improvements
SG&A reductions: Q4 SG&A down 19% versus 2024 and full-year SG&A down 11% versus 2024. Manufacturing efficiencies, automation pipeline progress and productivity initiatives drove improved operating performance in H2 2025.
Balance Sheet and Capital Flexibility
Reduced net debt leverage to 2.1x (low end of target range), refinanced term loan, made $100 million voluntary principal payments, and maintained capacity to invest in growth (2026 CapEx expected in the low $200s million).
Guidance and Stability for 2026
2026 guidance targets adjusted EBITDA roughly flat (guidance $660M–$675M), net income $331M–$343M, and adjusted EPS $1.57–$1.63, reflecting management's expectation of stable results despite headwinds.
Negative Updates
Foam Category Decline
Foam category volumes were down approximately 14% in 2025 and remain a material headwind; management expects about half that rate of decline in 2026 (~7%). Foam pressure weighed heavily on Hefty Tableware top-line performance.
Margin Pressure and Gross Margin Dilution
Q4 gross margin percentages were diluted by roughly 190 basis points due to pricing to recover commodities and growth in lower-margin non-retail revenues.
Full-Year EBITDA Slight Decline
Adjusted EBITDA declined modestly year-over-year from $678 million to $670 million (down ~1.2%), indicating profitability pressure despite Q4 improvement.
Retail Volume Headwinds and Mix Shift
Retail volumes experienced modest declines (retail revenues slightly down), and growth in low-margin non-retail net revenues (+$24 million in Q4) was dilutive to margins.
Competitive Promotional Pressure
Increased promotional and pricing activity from competitors in waste and food bag categories, creating near-term volume headwinds; management embedded some of this pressure into 2026 guidance.
Commodity and Tariff Cost Increases
Approximately $100 million of higher tariffs and commodity costs in 2025; aluminum costs continue to move significantly higher and create ongoing elasticity risk in foil and related categories.
Guide Includes Potential Revenue Downside
2026 net revenues guidance of -3% to +1% versus 2025 reflects expected category weakness (foam, foil) and potential store-brand bid losses early in the year.
Investment-Driven SG&A Increase in 2026
Although SG&A was lower in 2025, management expects SG&A to increase in 2026 to support innovation and strategic initiatives, partially offsetting margin gains from operations.
Elevated Capital Expenditures
CapEx expected to remain elevated (low $200s million in 2026) as automation and growth projects proceed, implying continued cash deployment toward long-term operational improvements.
Company Guidance
Reynolds guided full‑year 2026 net revenues down 3% to up 1% vs 2025 net revenues of $3.7B, with retail branded sales expected at or above category performance (category ~‑2%), non‑retail revenue flat, and full‑year adjusted EBITDA of $660–675M (roughly flat YoY versus $670M in 2025); management expects net income / adjusted net income of $331–343M, EPS / adjusted EPS of $1.57–1.63, an effective tax rate of ~24.5%, interest expense and D&A broadly in line with 2025, SG&A to be up versus 2025, and CapEx in the low $200M range as automation projects continue; Q1 2026 guidance is net revenues down 3% to up 1% vs Q1’25 revenue of $818M, net income / adjusted net income $49–53M, EPS / adj EPS $0.23–0.25 (vs $0.23 in Q1’25), and Q1 adjusted EBITDA $120–125M (vs $117M in Q1’25). The guide assumes continued pricing actions (Q4 pricing ~11 points with Q4 retail volumes down ~2 points), commodity pressure (notably higher aluminum), and that the company enters 2026 after exiting 2025 with $3.7B revenue, $670M adjusted EBITDA, $1.66 adjusted EPS, $316M free cash flow and net debt leverage of ~2.1x.

Reynolds Consumer Products Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong and consistently positive free cash flow supports the business, but multi-year revenue softness and margin compression weigh on quality. Balance sheet leverage appears to be improving, yet anomalous 2025 balance sheet figures reduce confidence in the latest-period balance sheet assessment.
Income Statement
63
Positive
Revenue has been drifting down for several years (2025: -8.1% after modest declines in 2023–2024), which is the key overhang. Profitability remains solid but has compressed versus 2020: gross margin fell from ~29.8% (2020) to ~24.7% (2025) and net margin from ~11.1% to ~8.1%. Still, earnings are positive and relatively stable ($301M net income in 2025 vs. $298M in 2023), suggesting resilience despite weaker top-line momentum.
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Leverage looks moderate in recent years (debt roughly $1.77–$2.17B; 2024 debt-to-equity ~0.84 improving from ~1.42 in 2020), which is a positive trajectory. However, the 2025 balance sheet figures appear internally inconsistent (equity and assets shown near $1–$2M), which makes 2025 leverage and return measures unreliable and raises data-quality risk for that period. Using the more coherent 2020–2024 set, the balance sheet is workable but still meaningfully levered for a consumer packaging business.
Cash Flow
71
Positive
Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow has generally covered earnings well (2023 operating cash flow meaningfully above net income), and free cash flow is consistently positive. After a weak 2022, free cash flow rebounded sharply in 2023 and remained healthy in 2024; 2025 shows free cash flow matching operating cash flow at $477M and equaling net income (1.0x), indicating strong cash conversion. The main weakness is volatility (notably the 2022 dip and 2024 decline in free cash flow).
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.72B3.69B3.76B3.82B3.56B
Gross Profit914.00M978.00M942.00M776.00M811.00M
EBITDA614.00M707.00M661.00M533.00M583.00M
Net Income301.00M352.00M298.00M258.00M324.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.94B4.87B4.83B4.93B4.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments147.00M137.00M115.00M38.00M164.00M
Total Debt1.76B1.79B1.91B2.17B2.17B
Total Liabilities2.68B2.73B2.85B3.06B3.06B
Stockholders Equity2.25B2.14B1.98B1.87B1.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow316.00M369.00M540.00M91.00M169.00M
Operating Cash Flow477.00M489.00M644.00M219.00M310.00M
Investing Cash Flow-161.00M-120.00M-110.00M-128.00M-141.00M
Financing Cash Flow-306.00M-346.00M-457.00M-217.00M-317.00M

Reynolds Consumer Products Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price24.81
Price Trends
50DMA
23.42
Positive
100DMA
23.64
Positive
200DMA
22.76
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.42
Negative
RSI
62.69
Neutral
STOCH
81.92
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REYN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.57, above the 50-day MA of 23.42, and above the 200-day MA of 22.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for REYN.

Reynolds Consumer Products Risk Analysis

Reynolds Consumer Products disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Reynolds Consumer Products reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Reynolds Consumer Products Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$6.17B15.5740.42%1.94%-1.22%-0.76%
71
Outperform
$5.57B14.1920.07%4.33%8.31%-99.39%
63
Neutral
$3.68B19.302.08%3.19%-17.63%-80.32%
63
Neutral
$5.07B17.7913.53%1.97%11.10%6.54%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
60
Neutral
$5.22B17.3413.70%3.97%0.76%-17.69%
58
Neutral
$3.61B8.2613.99%2.91%-3.93%-27.37%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
REYN
Reynolds Consumer Products
24.81
1.12
4.72%
GPK
Graphic Packaging
12.23
-13.36
-52.20%
GEF
Greif Class A
72.67
19.08
35.60%
SEE
Sealed Air
41.88
10.05
31.59%
SLGN
Silgan Holdings
48.05
-3.73
-7.21%
SON
Sonoco Products
56.47
11.31
25.05%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 05, 2026