Repsol (REPYY) AI Stock Analysis

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Repsol

(OTC:REPYY)

Rating:78Outperform

Price Target:

$15.50

▲(9.00%Upside)

Repsol's overall score is driven by its strong technical analysis and reasonable valuation, supported by positive earnings call insights. However, financial performance challenges, particularly declining profit margins and cash flow, are significant considerations.

Repsol (REPYY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$16.13B

Dividend Yield5.4%

Average Volume (3M)79.83K

Price to Earnings (P/E)13.3

Beta (1Y)0.49

Revenue Growth-5.07%

EPS Growth-59.50%

CountryUS

Employees25,136

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength55

IndustryOil & Gas Integrated

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.53

Shares Outstanding1,157,396,000

10 Day Avg. Volume82,855

30 Day Avg. Volume79,831

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.06

Price to Book (P/B)0.83

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio4.90

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$13.91

Price Target Upside-2.18% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering0

Repsol Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRepsol, S.A. operates as an integrated energy company worldwide. Its Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas reserves. The company's Industrial segment is involved in refining activities and petrochemicals business; the trading and transportation of crude oil and oil products; and the sale, transportation, and regasification of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Its Commercial and Renewables segment engages in the low carbon power generation and renewable sources; sale of gas and power; mobility and sale of oil products; and liquified petroleum gas activities. The company also offers asphalt products; installs, operates, and manages service stations; provides maritime services; constructs and operates oil refineries; refines and markets hydrocarbons; offers human resource services; distributes and supplies electricity; and develops new energy source, solar, and wind projects, as well as produces and markets chemical products, lubricants, and biofuels. Further, it is involved in fuel and special products marketing, research, trading and transport, insurance and reinsurance, technology development, and financing activities; develops nanoparticles and nanofibers for material, energy, and biomedicine applications; provides blockchain technology for retail, energy, and automotive sectors; produces synthetic oil cloths; invests in liquefaction plant project; and offers water treatment technology management services. The company was formerly known as Repsol YPF, S.A. and changed its name to Repsol, S.A. in May 2012. Repsol, S.A. was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.

How the Company Makes MoneyRepsol generates revenue through several key streams, primarily within the oil and gas industry. Its upstream segment is responsible for exploring and producing crude oil and natural gas, which are sold in the global market. The downstream segment includes refining operations that process crude oil into various petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are then distributed and sold through retail networks, mainly in Europe and Latin America. Additionally, Repsol is expanding its portfolio in the renewable energy sector, investing in wind and solar projects, which contribute to its earnings. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures in both traditional and renewable energy sectors also play a significant role in enhancing Repsol's revenue potential.

Repsol Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 17.52%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The call highlighted strategic advancements in upstream and renewables, alongside solid cash flow and shareholder returns. However, increased debt and challenges in refining and production presented notable concerns.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Upstream Expansion with NEO Energy

Repsol formed a joint venture with NEO Energy to merge their UK North Sea assets, creating one of the largest operators in the region with a projected production of 130,000 barrels per day in 2025.

Successful Asset Rotations

Completed a fifth asset rotation in Spain and the first in the U.S., validating the growth strategy in renewables. The U.S. rotation included a 46% stake in a 777 MW portfolio valued at $795 million.

Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns

Cash flow from operations excluding working capital movements was EUR 1.6 billion. A share buyback program equivalent to EUR 350 million was implemented, and a dividend of EUR 0.5 per share was confirmed.

Resilient Customer Division

Adjusted income was EUR 160 million, a 3% increase over Q1 2024. EBITDA improved by 24% year-over-year.

Growth in Low Carbon Generation

Adjusted income was EUR 5 million compared to a loss of EUR 6 million a year ago, driven by higher power prices and renewable production.

Negative Updates

Increased Net Debt

Net debt increased by EUR 0.8 billion to EUR 5.8 billion since December, driven by seasonal working capital increases and shareholder remuneration.

Refining Margin Decline

Industrial division's adjusted income dropped significantly to EUR 131 million from EUR 731 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to lower refining margins.

Production Challenges and Maintenance

Production was 550,000 barrels equivalent per day, 3% lower quarter-over-quarter, impacted by maintenance in the UK and divestments.

Company Guidance

In the first quarter of 2025, Repsol reported adjusted income of EUR 651 million, reflecting a 1% increase from the previous quarter, with cash flow from operations excluding working capital movements totaling EUR 1.6 billion. The company maintained its guidance for the year, even under a stress scenario with Brent crude at $65 per barrel, Henry Hub at $3.5 per million BTU, and a $4 refining margin indicator, projecting cash flow from operations between EUR 5.5 billion and EUR 6 billion. Organic CapEx was at EUR 1.2 billion, the lowest since the first quarter of 2023, while net CapEx after disposals stood at EUR 1 billion. Repsol completed EUR 0.7 billion of its expected EUR 2 billion disposals for 2025, with EUR 0.4 billion already cashed in. The company also confirmed a EUR 0.5 per share dividend payment for January 2026, alongside a EUR 350 million share buyback program. In the Upstream sector, Repsol's production averaged 550,000 barrels equivalent per day, 3% lower quarter-over-quarter, but current production is around 560,000 barrels per day. The strategic joint venture with NEO Energy in the U.K. is projected to produce 130,000 barrels per day in 2025. Repsol also continued its renewable asset rotation strategy, completing transactions in Spain and the U.S., indicating ongoing progress towards its strategic priorities.

Repsol Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Repsol's financial performance shows moderate revenue growth and a stable balance sheet with low debt levels. However, declining profit margins and reduced cash flow generation signal profitability pressures and operational challenges.

Income Statement

Positive

Repsol's income statement reflects moderate revenue growth, with a revenue increase from €53.12 billion in 2023 to €57.12 billion in 2024, marking a growth rate of 7.52%. However, there is a notable decline in gross profit margin, from 27.94% in 2023 to 19.09% in 2024, indicating increased cost pressures. The net profit margin also decreased from 5.96% to 3.07%, reflecting reduced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have weakened, suggesting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet indicates a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.46 in 2024, showcasing prudent leverage use. The return on equity (ROE) decreased from 12.10% in 2023 to 6.63% in 2024, suggesting declining efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio remains robust at 41.92%, indicating a healthy capital structure.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow statement shows a significant decrease in operating cash flow from €6.51 billion in 2023 to €4.97 billion in 2024, impacting overall liquidity. Free cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating limited free cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow growth rate is modest at 8.01%, signaling challenges in translating earnings into cash.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
70.04B	57.12B	58.95B	69.29B	49.74B	33.28B
	Gross Profit
11.84B	10.91B	12.52B	16.11B	10.10B	7.01B
	EBIT
1.39B	1.95B	4.29B	5.86B	3.76B	-2.55B
	EBITDA
5.07B	5.61B	7.25B	9.93B	6.74B	-557.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.32B	1.76B	3.17B	4.25B	2.50B	-3.29B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
6.55B	6.43B	8.43B	9.01B	7.84B	5.51B
	Total Assets
61.59B	63.19B	61.63B	59.96B	56.25B	49.30B
	Total Debt
0.00	12.19B	10.56B	13.36B	14.49B	15.56B
	Net Debt
-3.27B	7.43B	6.43B	6.85B	8.90B	11.24B
	Total Liabilities
32.91B	34.09B	32.56B	33.99B	33.46B	28.76B
	Stockholders Equity
26.16B	26.49B	26.20B	25.29B	22.41B	20.30B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
408.00M	240.00M	2.22B	4.30B	2.77B	852.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
4.75B	4.96B	6.51B	7.83B	4.68B	2.74B
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.19B	-2.69B	-5.85B	-4.10B	-2.93B	222.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-2.65B	-1.64B	-3.05B	-2.83B	-529.00M	-1.61B

Repsol Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price14.22

Price Trends

50DMA

12.56

Positive

100DMA

12.58

Positive

200DMA

12.41

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.39

Negative

RSI

75.43

Negative

STOCH

97.77

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REPYY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.53, above the 50-day MA of 12.56, and above the 200-day MA of 12.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.43 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.77 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for REPYY.

Repsol Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (58)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REPYY	78 Outperform	$16.13B	13.26	4.69%	5.40%	-5.07%	-59.50%
TTE	78 Outperform	$129.74B	10.19	11.75%	5.27%	-9.86%	-32.59%
PBR	75 Outperform	$74.59B	9.18	11.25%	8.35%	-10.84%	-61.73%
E	73 Outperform	$47.98B	17.79	4.78%	3.49%	-2.17%	-25.00%
EQNR	73 Outperform	$70.53B	8.16	18.28%	5.61%	3.96%	-1.69%
BP	68 Neutral	$79.01B	186.20	-1.87%	6.14%	-7.70%	-113.83%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.47B	3.50	-4.45%	10.05%	0.81%	-49.42%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

REPYY

Repsol

14.22

-0.15

-1.04%

31.72

-1.14

-3.47%

Eni SPA

32.59

5.02

18.21%

PBR

Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras

12.70

0.88

7.45%

EQNR

Equinor ASA

27.75

2.82

11.31%

TTE

TotalEnergies

63.48

0.56

0.89%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.