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Repsol (REPYY)
OTHER OTC:REPYY
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Repsol
(OTC:REPYY)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
â–²(12.14% Upside)
The score is primarily held back by weaker financial quality versus prior-cycle peaks (compressed margins/ROE and higher leverage), despite positive cash generation. Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend and balanced momentum. Valuation is helped by a ~5% dividend yield, while the latest earnings call was broadly constructive with maintained guidance but tempered by rising net debt and petrochemical/upstream softness.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Repsol's revenue growth of 7.52% indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term expansion.
Refining Business Resilience
The significant improvement in refining margins showcases operational efficiency and market strength, bolstering Repsol's competitive position.
Successful Asset Rotations
Strategic asset rotations enhance Repsol's portfolio and future earnings potential, supporting sustainable growth and diversification.
Negative Factors
Declining Margins
The decline in margins indicates rising costs and competitive pressures, potentially impacting profitability and requiring cost management.
Net Debt Increase
Increased debt levels could strain financial flexibility and necessitate careful management to maintain balance sheet health.
Challenges in Petrochemical Markets
Weakness in the petrochemical sector highlights market volatility and cost pressures, affecting Repsol's segment profitability.
Repsol (REPYY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$21.40B
Dividend Yield5.18%
Average Volume (3M)58.12K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.1
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth-4.83%
EPS Growth-41.69%
CountryUS
Employees25,136
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.82
Shares Outstanding1,105,374,400
10 Day Avg. Volume70,856
30 Day Avg. Volume58,122
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.24
P/FCF Ratio57.69
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.62
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.44
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Repsol Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionRepsol S.A. is a global energy company based in Spain, primarily engaged in the exploration, production, refining, and distribution of oil and natural gas. The company operates across several sectors including upstream (exploration and production), downstream (refining, distribution, and marketing of petroleum products), and renewable energy. Repsol also invests in innovative technologies and sustainability initiatives, aiming to transition towards cleaner energy solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyRepsol generates revenue through multiple key streams. The upstream segment, which involves the exploration and production of hydrocarbons, contributes significantly to its revenue through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The downstream segment generates income by refining crude oil into various petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are then marketed and sold through a vast network of service stations and distributors. Additionally, Repsol has been investing in renewable energy projects, such as wind and solar power, which are expected to become increasingly important revenue sources as global energy markets transition. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, contributing positively to its overall earnings.
Repsol Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Repsol displayed a strong financial performance with significant growth in adjusted income and operational cash flow. The customer and refining divisions showed robust results. However, challenges in the petrochemical market and an increase in net debt were noted. The sentiment is balanced with strong highlights but notable lowlights.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Repsol's adjusted income totaled EUR 820 million, 17% above the second quarter and 47% higher than the same period of 2024. Cash flow from operations amounted to EUR 1.5 billion, with accumulated operating cash flow through September reaching EUR 4.3 billion, 15% higher than in the first nine months of 2024.
Record Results in Customer Division
The customer division delivered the highest quarterly result in Repsol's commercial businesses history, with adjusted income reaching EUR 241 million, 22% above the second quarter and 34% higher than in the same period of 2024.
Successful Asset Rotations
Significant asset rotations were completed, including the merger with NEO Energy in the U.K., expected to contribute around $700 million of EBITDA for Repsol in 2026.
Refining Business Resilience
The Refining margin indicator stood at $8.8 per barrel, 49% higher than in the second quarter and 120% higher than the same period in 2024. Operations returned to normalized levels post-Iberian outage.
Negative Updates
Net Debt Increase
Net debt stood at EUR 6.9 billion by quarter end, an increase of EUR 1.2 billion compared to June, mainly due to the integration of the new joint venture with NEO Energy.
Challenges in Petrochemical Markets
Repsol's petrochemical margin indicator declined by 22% over the previous quarter, driven by lower prices and higher energy costs in Europe.
Production Decline in Upstream
Upstream production averaged 551,000 barrels oil equivalent per day, about 1% lower than the previous quarter, with adjusted income 28% below the second quarter.
Company Guidance
During the call, Repsol provided detailed guidance on various metrics for the third quarter of 2025. The company's adjusted income increased to EUR 820 million, a 17% rise from the previous quarter and 47% higher year-over-year. Cash flow from operations was EUR 1.5 billion, while accumulated operating cash flow through September reached EUR 4.3 billion, up 15% from the first nine months of 2024. Net CapEx for the quarter was EUR 0.3 billion, with a EUR 0.8 billion contribution from disposals and asset rotations. By the end of the quarter, Repsol's net debt was EUR 6.9 billion, an increase primarily due to a new joint venture with NEO Energy. The company also reported that its refining margin indicator stood at $8.8 per barrel, 49% higher than the previous quarter. Additionally, Repsol's upstream production averaged 551,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Looking ahead, the company maintained its cash flow from operations guidance at around EUR 6 billion for the year, with net CapEx expected to remain around EUR 3.5 billion.Repsol Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Profitability and returns have compressed versus 2021–2023 while leverage has increased. Cash generation is positive with improved operating and free cash flow year over year, but free cash flow remains below prior-cycle levels and cash conversion is weaker.Income Statement
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is modestly higher versus the prior year, but profitability has compressed meaningfully: net margin fell to ~1.7% (from ~3.1% in 2024), and EBIT/EBITDA margins are also lower than 2021–2024 levels. While the company has recovered from the 2020 loss period and remains profitable, the multi-year trend shows peak earnings in 2022–2023 followed by deceleration, indicating greater sensitivity to the current commodity/margin environment.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage has moved up: total debt increased to ~20.3B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from ~12.2B in 2024, pushing debt-to-equity to ~0.80 (from ~0.46). Equity remains sizeable (~25.5B) and assets have grown, but returns on equity have stepped down to ~4.6% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from mid-to-high single digits recently (and double digits in 2021–2023), reflecting weaker profitability and a less favorable risk/return balance.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is positive and improved year over year: operating cash flow rose to ~5.6B and free cash flow to ~1.8B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with strong free-cash-flow growth versus 2024. However, free cash flow remains well below 2021–2023 levels and cash conversion is currently weaker (free cash flow is ~32% of net income), suggesting higher reinvestment needs and/or working-capital volatility relative to earnings.54
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 68.31B | 57.12B | 58.95B | 69.29B | 49.74B | 33.28B |
| Gross Profit | 11.98B | 10.91B | 12.52B | 16.11B | 10.10B | 7.01B |
| EBITDA | 4.87B | 5.61B | 7.25B | 9.93B | 6.74B | -557.00M |
| Net Income | 1.14B | 1.76B | 3.17B | 4.25B | 2.50B | -3.29B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 58.52B | 63.19B | 61.63B | 59.96B | 56.25B | 49.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 8.01B | 6.43B | 8.43B | 9.01B | 7.84B | 5.51B |
| Total Debt | 17.32B | 12.19B | 10.56B | 13.36B | 14.49B | 15.56B |
| Total Liabilities | 34.23B | 34.09B | 32.56B | 33.99B | 33.46B | 28.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 21.75B | 26.49B | 26.20B | 25.29B | 22.41B | 20.30B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.71B | 240.00M | 2.22B | 4.30B | 2.77B | 852.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.39B | 4.96B | 6.51B | 7.83B | 4.68B | 2.74B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.26B | -2.69B | -5.85B | -4.10B | -2.93B | 222.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.65B | -1.64B | -3.05B | -2.83B | -529.00M | -1.61B |
Repsol Technical Analysis
Positive
18.28
Price Trends
18.48
Positive
17.95
Positive
15.87
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
60.93
Neutral
94.24
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REPYY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.89, below the 50-day MA of 18.48, and above the 200-day MA of 15.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for REPYY.
Repsol Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $61.93B | 20.44 | 5.31% | 5.41% | -3.84% | 15.75% | |
78 Outperform | $216.51B | 15.64 | 8.06% | 3.92% | -6.96% | 0.03% | |
70 Outperform | $95.26B | 7.16 | 18.20% | 14.10% | -11.63% | -15.67% | |
69 Neutral | $67.29B | 12.71 | 13.49% | 7.43% | 1.53% | -35.81% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $21.40B | 17.15 | 5.00% | 5.18% | -4.83% | -41.69% |
* Energy Sector Average
REPYY
Repsol
19.58
8.44
75.75%
E
Eni SPA
40.92
14.29
53.67%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
15.34
2.36
18.19%
SHEL
Shell
77.03
14.46
23.11%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
26.85
4.41
19.67%
TTE
TotalEnergies SE
72.40
17.96
33.00%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.