Ryder System (R) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.81B
• Dividend Yield: 1.75%
• Average Volume (3M): 366.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: 1.68%
• EPS Growth: 9.91%
• Country: US
• Employees: 50,700
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.59
• Shares Outstanding: 39,427,204
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 470,629
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 366,179
• PEG Ratio: 1.99
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.62
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.63
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.95
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.36
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.16
• 1Y Price Target: $231.86
• Price Target Upside: 3.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 14.42
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $13.00B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $228.00 ▲(2.03% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/12/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/12/26

The score reflects steady profitability and strong operating cash generation, offset by high leverage and inconsistent free-cash-flow conversion. Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, but overbought indicators add near-term risk. Valuation is fair with a modest dividend, while earnings-call guidance and initiative-driven efficiency gains provide a constructive outlook despite ongoing transactional (rental/used) pressures.

Positive Factors

Transformed, contractual-heavy business model

Ryder's shift toward contractual supply‑chain and dedicated services has materially reduced cyclicality: comparable EPS doubled versus 2018 and ROE rose to ~17% in 2025. This structural mix moves revenue toward recurring contracts, improving predictability and supporting steadier earnings through cycles.

Consistently strong operating cash flow

Sustained OCF in the $2.2B–$2.6B range provides durable internal funding for fleet replacement, strategic capex, M&A and shareholder returns. Reliable OCF underpins financial flexibility and allows Ryder to invest in growth and execute capital allocation even when free cash flow swings.

Shift to asset-light mix and supply-chain momentum

Increasing the share of supply‑chain and dedicated services reduces fleet capital intensity and increases higher‑margin, contractually backed revenue. Record supply‑chain sales and targeted exit growth support more stable margins and long‑term revenue expansion versus transactional leasing.

Negative Factors

High and persistent leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio near 2.5x constrains financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to rising rates or credit market stress. Persistent leverage limits runway for opportunistic M&A or rapid buybacks and elevates refinancing and covenant risk during industry downturns.

Volatile free cash flow and weak conversion

Irregular FCF and low conversion (FCF roughly ~18% of net income in 2025) mean less predictable distributable cash. That volatility constrains sustainable buybacks/dividend growth and requires management to balance reinvestment in fleets with shareholder returns, leaving execution sensitive to timing of used-vehicle proceeds.

Structural pressure in transactional businesses

Rental and used-vehicle markets remain cyclical and can materially swing margins and proceeds. Persistent weak rental utilization and softer used-pricing create recurring earnings volatility in FMS, limiting predictability of resale gains and pressuring short‑term profitability and cash generation from transactional flows.

Ryder System Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ryder System, Inc. operates as a logistics and transportation company worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Fleet Management Solutions (FMS), Supply Chain Solutions (SCS), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS). The FMS segment offers full service leasing and leasing with flexible maintenance options, as well as maintenance services, supplies, and related equipment for operation of the vehicles; commercial vehicle rental services; and contract or transactional maintenance services of trucks, tractors, and trailers, as well as fleet support services. This segment also provides access to diesel fuel; offers fuel planning and tax reporting, cards, and monitoring services, and centralized billing; and sells used vehicles through its 63 retail sales centers and www.ryder.com/used-trucks website. The DTS segment offers equipment, maintenance, drivers, administrative, and additional services, as well as routing and scheduling, fleet sizing, safety, regulatory compliance, risk management, and technology and communication systems support services. The SCS segment comprises distribution management services, such as designing and managing customer's distribution network and facilities; coordinating warehousing and transportation for inbound and outbound material flows; handling import and export for international shipments; coordinating just-in-time replenishment of component parts to manufacturing and final assembly; and offering shipments to customer distribution centers or end customer delivery points, as well as other value added services, such as light assembly of components. This segment also offers transportation management services, such as shipment optimization, load scheduling, and delivery confirmation services; knowledge-based professional services; and e-commerce and last mile services. Ryder System, Inc. was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Ryder System generates revenue through multiple key streams. The Fleet Management Solutions segment earns money by renting and leasing commercial vehicles to businesses, along with providing maintenance and repair services for these vehicles. The Supply Chain Solutions segment derives income from logistics services, including warehousing, distribution, and freight transportation, often through long-term contracts with large corporations. Meanwhile, the Dedicated Transportation Solutions segment focuses on providing customized transportation services, which also includes vehicle leasing and management. Significant partnerships with major retailers and manufacturers enhance Ryder's earnings by ensuring steady demand for its logistics and transportation services. Additionally, Ryder benefits from service contracts that provide recurring revenue, helping stabilize its financial performance.

Ryder System Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Core profitability and operating cash flow are consistently positive, but results are held back by volatile revenue growth, highly variable free cash flow (often negative until improving in 2025), and a debt-heavy balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~2.5x).

Income Statement

Revenue has been volatile: strong growth in 2021–2022, a dip in 2023, a rebound in 2024, and then flat-to-down in 2025 (annual revenue growth of -11.8%). Profitability is positive and fairly steady recently, with net margin around ~3.4%–3.9% in 2023–2025, but well below the 2022 level (~7.2%) and it also included a loss in 2020. Overall, earnings power looks resilient, but growth and margin consistency are key weaknesses.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is high and persistent, with debt-to-equity around ~2.4x–3.0x across 2020–2025 (2025 at ~2.50x). Returns on equity are solid in recent years (mid-teens in 2023–2025 and very strong in 2022), but the balance sheet profile is still debt-heavy, which increases sensitivity to rate/credit conditions. Equity has been relatively stable, but the capital structure remains the main constraint.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been consistently strong (roughly $2.2B–$2.6B each year), supporting the business through cycles. However, free cash flow has been volatile and often negative (2022–2024), improving to positive in 2025 (~$459M), but with weak conversion versus net income in 2025 (free cash flow about ~18% of net income). This suggests ongoing reinvestment/capex pressure and less predictable cash available to return to shareholders or de-lever.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	12.66B	12.64B	11.78B	12.01B	9.66B
Gross Profit	2.50B	2.42B	2.26B	2.39B	1.80B
EBITDA	3.33B	2.79B	2.93B	3.39B	2.70B
Net Income	499.00M	489.00M	406.00M	867.00M	519.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.39B	16.67B	15.78B	14.39B	13.84B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	198.00M	154.00M	204.00M	267.00M	234.00M
Total Debt	8.68B	8.88B	8.15B	7.08B	6.94B
Total Liabilities	13.34B	13.55B	12.71B	11.46B	11.04B
Stockholders Equity	3.05B	3.12B	3.07B	2.94B	2.80B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	459.00M	-418.00M	-881.00M	-321.00M	234.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.59B	2.27B	2.35B	2.31B	2.17B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.65B	-2.45B	-2.66B	-1.85B	-1.45B
Financing Cash Flow	-912.00M	153.00M	256.00M	-861.00M	-204.00M

Ryder System Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 223.46
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For R, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 223.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 209.81, above the 50-day MA of 198.76, and above the 200-day MA of 177.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for R.

Ryder System Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GATX	69 Neutral	$6.94B	21.46	12.63%	1.41%	10.66%	13.61%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
R	61 Neutral	$8.81B	18.52	16.15%	1.75%	1.68%	9.91%
HRI	58 Neutral	$4.96B	4,568.44	0.06%	1.79%	19.40%	-120.47%
MGRC	58 Neutral	$2.82B	19.14	12.70%	1.79%	4.77%	-35.44%
WSC	54 Neutral	$4.29B	-78.68	-5.65%	1.44%	-3.64%	867.62%
CAR	44 Neutral	$3.31B	-3.71	―	―	-1.22%	-639.34%

Ryder System Corporate Events

Ryder System Posts Modest Earnings Growth on Resilient Model

On February 11, 2026, Ryder reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing modest earnings growth despite flat revenue as its revamped business model continued to emphasize contractual revenue. Fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations rose 5% to $3.25 on essentially unchanged total and operating revenue of $3.2 billion and $2.6 billion, respectively, while comparable EPS increased 4% to $3.59, helped by share repurchases.

For full-year 2025, GAAP EPS from continuing operations climbed 8% to $11.99 and comparable EPS rose 8% to $12.92, driven by higher contractual earnings in all segments and buybacks, partially offset by weaker used vehicle sales and rental performance. Ryder posted a 17% adjusted return on equity, $12.7 billion in total revenue, a 1% increase in operating revenue to $10.4 billion on growth in supply chain and fleet management, and strong cash generation, underlining management’s view that its strategic initiatives and transformed business model are delivering resilient returns through the cycle.

By segment in the fourth quarter, supply chain solutions led growth with a 3% increase in both total and operating revenue, while fleet management revenue declined 1% and dedicated transportation revenue fell 8% in total and 4% in operating terms, pointing to mixed demand trends across Ryder’s portfolio. Looking ahead to 2026, the company signaled confidence in continued profitability with a projected adjusted return on equity of 17% to 18%, operating revenue growth of about 3% led by supply chain services, and robust operating cash flow alongside substantial but slightly lower free cash flow as it continues funding strategic growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (R) stock is a Buy with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ryder System stock, see the R Stock Forecast page.

Ryder System announces planned board retirement and refreshment

On January 23, 2026, Ryder System, Inc. announced that long-serving director E. Follin Smith informed the board of her decision to retire from the Board of Directors effective February 13, 2026, with the board and management publicly recognizing her many years of service and contributions to the company and its shareholders. The company emphasized that Smith’s retirement does not stem from any disagreement over operations, policies, or practices, and framed the move as a planned step within its broader director succession strategy aimed at maintaining a well-rounded board that balances tenured institutional knowledge with fresh perspectives from newer members, signaling continued attention to corporate governance and board refreshment for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (R) stock is a Buy with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ryder System stock, see the R Stock Forecast page.

Ryder System announces board changes and new director

On December 18, 2025, Ryder System, Inc. announced that long-serving director Abbie Smith will retire from its board and not stand for reelection at the company’s 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting, with the company emphasizing that her departure does not stem from any disagreement over operations, policies, or practices and publicly thanking her for her service. As part of its ongoing director succession planning and drive to balance institutional knowledge with fresh perspectives, the board appointed former Southwest Airlines executive vice president and chief financial officer Tammy Romo as an independent director effective January 5, 2026, assigning her to the Audit and Finance Committees and placing her under the company’s standard non-employee director compensation and indemnification arrangements; Ryder highlighted Romo’s deep transportation and financial expertise, along with her governance experience as an independent director at Tenet Healthcare, as strengthening the board’s strategic oversight and stakeholder-focused capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (R) stock is a Buy with a $218.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ryder System stock, see the R Stock Forecast page.

Ryder System Announces CEO Transition and Succession Plan

On December 11, 2025, Ryder System announced that Robert E. Sanchez will retire as CEO on March 31, 2026, transitioning to the role of Executive Chair. John J. Diez, the current President and COO, will succeed Sanchez as CEO and join the board of directors. This leadership change is part of a comprehensive succession plan aimed at ensuring a smooth transition and continued growth for Ryder. The board has approved new compensation packages for both Sanchez and Diez, reflecting their new roles, and has entered into an amended severance agreement with Diez. This transition highlights Ryder’s strategic focus on leadership continuity and its commitment to leveraging its strong industry position to capitalize on growth opportunities in the logistics and transportation sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (R) stock is a Hold with a $203.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ryder System stock, see the R Stock Forecast page.