Ryder System (R)
NYSE:R
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Ryder System
(NYSE:R)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$228.00
▲(2.68% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/12/26
The score reflects steady profitability and strong operating cash generation, offset by high leverage and inconsistent free-cash-flow conversion. Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, but overbought indicators add near-term risk. Valuation is fair with a modest dividend, while earnings-call guidance and initiative-driven efficiency gains provide a constructive outlook despite ongoing transactional (rental/used) pressures.
Positive Factors
Transformed, contractual-heavy business model
Ryder's shift toward contractual supply‑chain and dedicated services has materially reduced cyclicality: comparable EPS doubled versus 2018 and ROE rose to ~17% in 2025. This structural mix moves revenue toward recurring contracts, improving predictability and supporting steadier earnings through cycles.
Negative Factors
High and persistent leverage
A debt-to-equity ratio near 2.5x constrains financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to rising rates or credit market stress. Persistent leverage limits runway for opportunistic M&A or rapid buybacks and elevates refinancing and covenant risk during industry downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Transformed, contractual-heavy business model
Ryder's shift toward contractual supply‑chain and dedicated services has materially reduced cyclicality: comparable EPS doubled versus 2018 and ROE rose to ~17% in 2025. This structural mix moves revenue toward recurring contracts, improving predictability and supporting steadier earnings through cycles.
Read all positive factors
Ryder System (R) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.75B
Dividend Yield1.75%
Average Volume (3M)333.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.0
Beta (1Y)1.16
Revenue Growth1.68%
EPS Growth9.91%
CountryUS
Employees50,700
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.59
Shares Outstanding39,427,204
10 Day Avg. Volume254,436
30 Day Avg. Volume333,098
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.99
Price to Book (P/B)2.62
Price to Sales (P/S)0.63
P/FCF Ratio17.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.18
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$231.00Price Target Upside4.04% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)14.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$13.01B
Ryder System Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ryder System, Inc. operates as a logistics and transportation company worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Fleet Management Solutions (FMS), Supply Chain Solutions (SCS), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS). The FMS seg...
How the Company Makes Money
Ryder System generates revenue through multiple key streams. The Fleet Management Solutions segment earns money by renting and leasing commercial vehicles to businesses, along with providing maintenance and repair services for these vehicles. The ...
Ryder System Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRyder System Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized the strength and resiliency of Ryder's transformed, contractual-heavy business model, highlighting doubled comparable EPS since 2018, higher ROE, record supply-chain sales, strong cash generation, and sizable capital deployment capacity. Management also outlined clear operational and AI-driven initiatives expected to deliver incremental benefits ($170M expected in 2026 and $250M by the next cycle peak). Offsetting these positives are persistent near-term headwinds in transactional businesses: weak rental demand, pressure in used truck pricing (-9% YoY), lower FMS profitability versus targets, and a conservative 2026 outlook that assumes limited market improvement (with Q1 2026 as a challenging comparison). Overall the positives from structural transformation, cash generation, and initiative-driven savings outweigh the current transactional pressures.Positive Updates
Transformed Business Model and Durable Results
Comparable EPS of $12.92 in 2025 (more than double 2018's $5.95); ROE of 17% in 2025 (vs 13% in 2018); operating cash flow of $2.6 billion in 2025 (up >50% vs 2018), demonstrating the resiliency of the transformed, contractual-heavy model.
Negative Updates
Fleet Management Revenue and Profit Pressure
Fleet Management operating revenue down 1% in Q4; FMS pretax earnings $136 million in Q4 (down vs prior year); FMS EBT as a percent of operating revenue 10.5% in Q4, below long-term target of low teens.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transformed Business Model and Durable Results
Comparable EPS of $12.92 in 2025 (more than double 2018's $5.95); ROE of 17% in 2025 (vs 13% in 2018); operating cash flow of $2.6 billion in 2025 (up >50% vs 2018), demonstrating the resiliency of the transformed, contractual-heavy model.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ryder's 2026 guidance calls for operating revenue growth of ~3% and comparable EPS of $13.45–$14.45 (up ~12% at the high end), with ROE rising to 17–18% (management reiterates an over‑cycle ROE target in the low‑20s); free cash flow is forecast at $700–$800M (versus $946M in 2025) and Q1 EPS is guided to $2.10–$2.35 (vs. $2.46). Fleet and capital assumptions include $1.9B of lease capex in 2026 (ending lease fleet modestly down), $100M of rental capex (ending rental fleet down ~7%, average rental fleet down ~13%), total capex ≈ $2.4B with ~$500M expected used‑vehicle proceeds and net capex ≈ $1.9B; used prices are expected to modestly improve in H2 and remain above residuals. Management expects $70M of incremental pretax benefits from multiyear strategic initiatives in 2026 (bringing total expected annual pretax benefits to $170M to date and at least $250M by the next cycle peak), assumes U.S. Class‑8 production down ~4%, and projects segment targets of supply‑chain exit growth approaching low double‑digits with supply‑chain and dedicated EBT in the high‑single‑digit range while FMS EBT% remains below low‑teens. Financial flexibility metrics include year‑end leverage at 250% (2.5x, at the low end of a 2.5–3x target), a three‑year ~$10.5B operating‑cash + used‑sales generation creating ~$3.5B incremental debt capacity and ~$14B total deployment capacity (with ~ $5B flexible, ≈60% of market cap); share repurchases, dividend growth, and continued M&A remain capital‑allocation priorities.Ryder System Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 12.66B | 12.64B | 11.78B | 12.01B | 9.66B |
| Gross Profit | 2.50B | 2.42B | 2.26B | 2.39B | 1.80B |
| EBITDA | 3.33B | 2.79B | 2.93B | 3.39B | 2.70B |
| Net Income | 499.00M | 489.00M | 406.00M | 867.00M | 519.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.39B | 16.67B | 15.78B | 14.39B | 13.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 198.00M | 154.00M | 204.00M | 267.00M | 234.00M |
| Total Debt | 8.68B | 8.88B | 8.15B | 7.08B | 6.94B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.34B | 13.55B | 12.71B | 11.46B | 11.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.05B | 3.12B | 3.07B | 2.94B | 2.80B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 459.00M | -418.00M | -881.00M | -321.00M | 234.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.59B | 2.27B | 2.35B | 2.31B | 2.17B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.65B | -2.45B | -2.66B | -1.85B | -1.45B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -912.00M | 153.00M | 256.00M | -861.00M | -204.00M |
Ryder System Technical Analysis
Positive
222.04
Price Trends
206.17
Positive
195.18
Positive
185.57
Positive
Market Momentum
1.70
Negative
67.03
Neutral
82.44
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For R, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 222.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 199.19, above the 50-day MA of 206.17, and above the 200-day MA of 185.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.44 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for R.
Ryder System Risk Analysis
Ryder System disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ryder System reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ryder System Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $2.80B | 16.52 | 13.21% | 1.79% | 4.77% | -35.44% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $8.75B | 16.03 | 16.36% | 1.75% | 1.68% | 9.91% | |
61 Neutral | $6.84B | 18.22 | 12.47% | 1.41% | 10.66% | 13.61% | |
51 Neutral | $10.47B | -5.08 | 32.05% | ― | -1.22% | -639.34% | |
51 Neutral | $3.38B | -64.81 | -5.35% | 1.44% | -3.64% | 867.62% | |
47 Neutral | $3.45B | 4,644.29 | 0.06% | 1.79% | 19.40% | -120.47% |
* Industrials Sector Average
R
Ryder System
222.04
86.12
63.36%
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18.67
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HRI
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103.37
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113.85
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Ryder System Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Ryder System Posts Modest Earnings Growth on Resilient Model
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Ryder reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, showing modest earnings growth despite flat revenue as its revamped business model continued to emphasize contractual revenue. Fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP earnings pe...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ryder System announces planned board retirement and refreshment
Neutral
Jan 23, 2026
On January 23, 2026, Ryder System, Inc. announced that long-serving director E. Follin Smith informed the board of her decision to retire from the Board of Directors effective February 13, 2026, with the board and management publicly recognizing h...
Executive/Board Changes
Ryder System announces board changes and new director
Positive
Dec 19, 2025
On December 18, 2025, Ryder System, Inc. announced that long-serving director Abbie Smith will retire from its board and not stand for reelection at the company’s 2026 annual shareholders’ meeting, with the company emphasizing that her...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ryder System Announces CEO Transition and Succession Plan
Positive
Dec 12, 2025
On December 11, 2025, Ryder System announced that Robert E. Sanchez will retire as CEO on March 31, 2026, transitioning to the role of Executive Chair. John J. Diez, the current President and COO, will succeed Sanchez as CEO and join the board of ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.