Avis Budget Group (CAR)
NASDAQ:CAR
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Avis Budget
(NASDAQ:CAR)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$151.00
▼(-69.42% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/22/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (recent losses and a highly levered, negative-equity balance sheet) and bearish technical momentum. This is partially offset by a more constructive earnings update (raised EBITDA guidance and improving operational metrics) and reasonable-looking valuation only in the sense that earnings are currently negative and dividend support is absent.
Positive Factors
Operating cash generation
Consistent, multi-billion operating cash flow demonstrates the core rental business reliably converts revenue into cash. That durable cash engine underpins fleet purchases, securitizations and debt service, providing a structural buffer while management executes depreciation normalization and deleveraging.
Negative Factors
Negative equity / fragile balance sheet
Persistent negative equity is a structural capital weakness: it constrains borrowing options, elevates refinancing risk and magnifies leverage ratios. That fragile balance sheet limits strategic flexibility and raises the chance that adverse shocks or higher rates will impair the deleveraging plan over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating cash generation
Consistent, multi-billion operating cash flow demonstrates the core rental business reliably converts revenue into cash. That durable cash engine underpins fleet purchases, securitizations and debt service, providing a structural buffer while management executes depreciation normalization and deleveraging.
Read all positive factors
Avis Budget (CAR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.90B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.78
Revenue Growth0.72%
EPS Growth69.91%
CountryUS
Employees17,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-18.93
Shares Outstanding35,324,986
10 Day Avg. Volume807,133
30 Day Avg. Volume4,051,447
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)-1.44
Price to Sales (P/S)0.39
P/FCF Ratio-0.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.60
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$127.00Price Target Upside-74.28% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.91B
Avis Budget Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Avis Budget Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides car and truck rentals, car sharing, and ancillary products and services to businesses and consumers. It operates the Avis brand, that offers vehicle rental and other mobility soluti...
How the Company Makes Money
Avis Budget makes money primarily by renting vehicles to customers and charging related fees for time- and usage-based access to cars. Its core revenue stream is vehicle rental revenue, typically priced by day (or hour for car sharing) and influen...
Avis Budget Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys meaningful operational progress and financial improvement—beat on adjusted EBITDA, raised full-year guidance, pricing recovery in the Americas, improved utilization, fleet youth and liquidity/ refinancing wins—while acknowledging material near-term challenges including elevated leverage, governance/stock volatility tied to a large shareholder sale and uneven international demand. Management presented a clear plan (fleet discipline, debt repayment, ongoing EBITDA growth) and expects continued improvement, supporting an overall constructive tone.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Beat and Raised Guidance
Adjusted EBITDA exceeded plan by approximately $50 million in Q1; company raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $850 million to $1.0 billion.
Negative Updates
Share-Price Volatility and Large Share Sale
Significant stock volatility tied to a large shareholder (Pentwater Capital) that sold 4.3 million shares for gross proceeds of $1.75 billion on April 22–23; company reports this contributed to a material stock price decline.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Beat and Raised Guidance
Adjusted EBITDA exceeded plan by approximately $50 million in Q1; company raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $850 million to $1.0 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $850M–$1.0B after Q1 outperformance of roughly $50M; net corporate leverage was 7.6x as of March 31 with a plan to get below 6x by year‑end and a longer‑term target of 2–4x. Liquidity exceeded $900M with ~$2.9B of ABS capacity; the company renewed a ~€2.4B European securitization (extended two years), issued $668M of AESOP term debt across 3‑ and 5‑year tenors, expects to renew a $2.4B AESOP VFN facility, has $480M of seasonal capacity through Oct‑2026, and has no corporate debt maturities until 2027. Operationally, Americas revenue grew 2.9% with rental days essentially flat and RPD up 2.8% (exiting March ~+4%), ancillary +1.9%, leisure share +1.1 pts, TSA volumes +1.6% and a deliberate Americas fleet reduction of ~0.6%; utilization hit the highest Q1 level in 15+ years, the fleet is ~20% younger, and monthly Americas depreciation averaged about $380 in Q1 (from >$500 in January into the mid‑$300s by March) with a meaningful decline expected in Q2. International rental days were down 3.8% while RPD rose ~3% on a constant‑currency basis, and management said Americas rental days are trending mid‑single‑digit growth with RPD holding into the summer (Waymo Dallas launch on track for Q3).Avis Budget Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.75B | 11.65B | 11.79B | 12.01B | 11.99B | 9.31B |
| Gross Profit | 3.01B | 2.85B | 3.00B | 3.93B | 4.77B | 3.39B |
| EBITDA | 5.29B | 5.25B | 2.67B | 6.43B | 7.15B | 4.74B |
| Net Income | -667.00M | -889.00M | -1.82B | 1.63B | 2.76B | 1.28B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 30.60B | 32.19B | 29.95B | 33.42B | 25.93B | 22.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 528.00M | 519.00M | 537.00M | 559.00M | 572.00M | 537.00M |
| Total Debt | 27.67B | 31.17B | 26.04B | 26.45B | 20.92B | 17.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 33.88B | 35.24B | 32.27B | 33.76B | 26.63B | 22.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | -3.42B | -3.13B | -2.33B | -349.00M | -703.00M | -220.00M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.53B | -11.98B | -6.54B | -11.63B | 576.00M | -2.59B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.11B | 3.30B | 3.52B | 3.83B | 4.71B | 3.49B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.85B | -4.98B | -2.75B | -7.35B | -4.30B | -6.31B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 767.00M | 1.68B | -781.00M | 3.51B | -360.00M | 2.69B |
Avis Budget Technical Analysis
Neutral
493.86
Price Trends
215.22
Negative
164.53
Positive
155.44
Positive
Market Momentum
-26.03
Negative
44.77
Neutral
76.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 493.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 161.66, above the 50-day MA of 215.22, and above the 200-day MA of 155.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -26.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CAR.
Avis Budget Risk Analysis
Avis Budget disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avis Budget reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Avis Budget Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $1.34B | 7.94 | 20.48% | 1.72% | 0.45% | -25.85% | |
71 Outperform | $9.44B | 21.79 | 16.36% | 1.75% | -0.07% | 4.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
57 Neutral | $4.49B | 27.93 | -7.11% | 1.44% | -4.12% | -487.73% | |
56 Neutral | $4.31B | -34.53 | -0.26% | 1.79% | 28.39% | -105.83% | |
49 Neutral | $1.67B | -1.09 | 123.33% | ― | -0.99% | 79.92% | |
48 Neutral | $5.90B | -4.55 | 22.83% | ― | 0.72% | 69.91% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CAR
Avis Budget
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Avis Budget Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Avis Budget Shareholders Uphold Board, Reject Governance Changes
Positive
May 21, 2026
At its May 20, 2026 annual meeting, Avis Budget Group shareholders elected six director nominees to one-year terms ending in 2027, reaffirming the existing board leadership. Investors also ratified Deloitte Touche LLP as the independent auditor f...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Avis Budget Expands and Extends U.S. Fleet Financing
Positive
May 5, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Avis Budget’s Avis Budget Rental Car Funding (AESOP) LLC completed an amendment and extension of its asset-backed variable-funding facilities that help finance its U.S. car rental fleet. The changes increased the aggregate...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Avis Budget Launches At-the-Market Equity Offering Program
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
On March 27, 2026, Avis Budget Group, Inc. entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement with a syndicate of major investment banks that will act as sales agents or principals for up to 5,000,000 newly issued common shares. The shares may be sold ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Avis Budget Raises $668 Million Through Asset-Backed Notes
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Avis Budget’s subsidiary Avis Budget Rental Car Funding (AESOP) LLC issued $668.2 million in asset-backed securities across two series of Class A through D notes with maturities of three and five years, secured by vehicles...
Legal Proceedings
Avis Budget Nears Dismissal of Shareholder Derivative Lawsuits
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
Avis Budget Group, Inc., a major player in the global vehicle rental and mobility services market, was the nominal defendant in two shareholder derivative lawsuits filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey in 2025. These suit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.