Avis Budget (CAR)
NASDAQ:CAR
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Avis Budget
(NASDAQ:CAR)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$301.00
▲(0.35% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/08/26
The score is held down primarily by weakened profitability, a structurally stressed balance sheet (negative equity/high debt), and a guidance miss with near-term uncertainty. Strong technical momentum and solid operating cash flow provide support, while valuation signals remain constrained by losses and the lack of a stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Operating cash flow resilience
Consistently strong operating cash flow provides durable liquidity to fund fleet purchases, service debt, and support operations through cycles. Over 2–6 months this steadiness underpins the company’s ability to execute fleet rotation and fund corrective actions without immediate reliance on volatile capital markets.
Negative Factors
Structurally weak balance sheet
Persistent negative equity and elevated debt constrain financial flexibility and raise refinancing risk in a capital-intensive business. Over the medium term this reduces ability to absorb demand shocks, limits strategic optionality, and amplifies earnings volatility when fleet or used-vehicle markets weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating cash flow resilience
Consistently strong operating cash flow provides durable liquidity to fund fleet purchases, service debt, and support operations through cycles. Over 2–6 months this steadiness underpins the company’s ability to execute fleet rotation and fund corrective actions without immediate reliance on volatile capital markets.
Read all positive factors
Avis Budget (CAR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.58B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.45
Revenue Growth-1.22%
EPS Growth-639.34%
CountryUS
Employees17,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.60
Shares Outstanding35,258,650
10 Day Avg. Volume2,902,174
30 Day Avg. Volume1,512,182
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)-1.44
Price to Sales (P/S)0.39
P/FCF Ratio-0.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.41
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$105.60Price Target Upside-64.79% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.76B
Avis Budget Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Avis Budget Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides car and truck rentals, car sharing, and ancillary products and services to businesses and consumers. It operates the Avis brand, that offers vehicle rental and other mobility soluti...
How the Company Makes Money
Avis Budget makes money primarily by renting vehicles to customers and charging related fees for time- and usage-based access to cars. Its core revenue stream is vehicle rental revenue, typically priced by day (or hour for car sharing) and influen...
Avis Budget Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call mixed material near-term negatives with decisive corrective actions. Financially, Avis Budget missed prior guidance meaningfully (full-year adjusted EBITDA guided $900M vs. reported $748M) driven by an abrupt November demand shock in the Americas, RPD weakness (-3.7%), used-vehicle price volatility (Manheim -4.3% Oct→Nov), elevated depreciation per unit ($338 in Q4 versus prior expectations) and a ~ $500M EV write-down. Offsetting these challenges, management monetized EV tax credits (≈$180M cash), recorded operational improvements (utilization +0.5pp, record dispositions in January), accelerated fleet rightsizing (average fleet age <1 year by end of Q1), and laid out clear cost and capital-allocation changes — including OEM rebalancing, a leaner cost base, and continued strategic initiatives (Avis First, Waymo). Given the significant financial misses and large one-time write-downs balanced against strong corrective measures and some tangible cash/operational wins, the call reflects a neutral tone: meaningful problems acknowledged and addressed, but near-term pressure remains.Positive Updates
International Business Turnaround
International segment executed a meaningful turnaround in 2025 and performed as expected in Q4, isolating the operational shortfall to the Americas.
Negative Updates
Large Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Shortfall vs. Guide
Company guided to full-year adjusted EBITDA of $900 million but reported $748 million, a shortfall of approximately $152 million versus prior guidance; management noted a Q4 miss of roughly $150 million relative to October expectations.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
International Business Turnaround
International segment executed a meaningful turnaround in 2025 and performed as expected in Q4, isolating the operational shortfall to the Americas.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said 2026 guidance comes with a wide adjusted‑EBITDA range that will be narrowed as the year progresses and is built on a tighter‑fleet, utilization‑first plan that assumes modest Americas revenue growth; they highlighted FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $748M versus the October guide of $900M (Q4 had been implied at ~$157M), a roughly $150M miss driven by flat rental days (vs. a +3% guide), an 11% decline in commercial rental days in November, RPD down 3.7% (vs. ~2% expected), a Manheim price drop of about $1,000 (−4.3%) Oct→Nov, and monthly net depreciation per unit in the Americas of $338 (vs. an October estimate just under $300); the Q4 bridge cited roughly $40M from lower rental days/RPD, ~$60M from higher gross depreciation and lower gains on sale, and ~ $50M from a PLPD reserve increase, plus ~14,000 recall‑grounded vehicles (recall impact ≈ $40M in Q4) and an approximately $500M EV fleet write‑down offset in part by monetizing EV tax credits ( ~$180M cash realized to date) and shortening EV useful life from 36 to ~18 months (EV depreciation moved from ≈ $600/month toward slightly north of $300/month); company expectations include elevated depreciation (~$400 headline in Q1 per slides) normalizing to the low‑$300s monthly run rate through 2026, DPU higher in Q1 then moderating, record vehicle dispositions in January and continued elevated sales into the March–April tax‑refund season.Avis Budget Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
20
Very Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 11.65B | 11.79B | 12.01B | 11.99B | 9.31B |
| Gross Profit | 2.85B | 3.00B | 3.93B | 4.77B | 3.39B |
| EBITDA | 4.38B | 2.67B | 6.43B | 7.15B | 4.74B |
| Net Income | -889.00M | -1.82B | 1.63B | 2.76B | 1.28B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 32.19B | 29.95B | 33.42B | 25.93B | 22.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 519.00M | 537.00M | 559.00M | 572.00M | 537.00M |
| Total Debt | 31.17B | 26.04B | 26.45B | 20.92B | 17.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.24B | 32.27B | 33.76B | 26.63B | 22.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | -3.13B | -2.33B | -349.00M | -703.00M | -220.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -11.98B | -6.54B | -11.63B | 576.00M | -2.59B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.30B | 3.52B | 3.83B | 4.71B | 3.49B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.16B | -2.75B | -7.35B | -4.30B | -6.31B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.86B | -781.00M | 3.51B | -360.00M | 2.69B |
Avis Budget Technical Analysis
Positive
299.94
Price Trends
128.01
Positive
128.65
Positive
145.27
Positive
Market Momentum
44.46
Negative
91.97
Negative
95.85
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CAR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 299.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 160.34, above the 50-day MA of 128.01, and above the 200-day MA of 145.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 44.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 91.97 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.85 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CAR.
Avis Budget Risk Analysis
Avis Budget disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avis Budget reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Avis Budget Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $1.18B | 8.05 | 21.17% | 1.72% | 3.71% | 9.14% | |
61 Neutral | $8.63B | 16.03 | 16.36% | 1.75% | 1.68% | 9.91% | |
51 Neutral | $10.58B | -5.08 | 32.05% | ― | -1.22% | -639.34% | |
51 Neutral | $3.37B | -64.81 | -5.35% | 1.44% | -3.64% | 867.62% | |
51 Neutral | $1.97B | -2.13 | 193.77% | ― | -7.36% | 62.27% | |
47 Neutral | $3.44B | 4,644.29 | 0.06% | 1.79% | 19.40% | -120.47% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CAR
Avis Budget
299.94
228.64
320.67%
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Avis Budget Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Avis Budget Launches At-the-Market Equity Offering Program
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
On March 27, 2026, Avis Budget Group, Inc. entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement with a syndicate of major investment banks that will act as sales agents or principals for up to 5,000,000 newly issued common shares. The shares may be sold ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Avis Budget Raises $668 Million Through Asset-Backed Notes
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Avis Budget’s subsidiary Avis Budget Rental Car Funding (AESOP) LLC issued $668.2 million in asset-backed securities across two series of Class A through D notes with maturities of three and five years, secured by vehicles...
Legal Proceedings
Avis Budget Nears Dismissal of Shareholder Derivative Lawsuits
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
Avis Budget Group, Inc., a major player in the global vehicle rental and mobility services market, was the nominal defendant in two shareholder derivative lawsuits filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey in 2025. These suit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.