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Hertz Global (HTZ)
NASDAQ:HTZ

Hertz Global (HTZ) AI Stock Analysis

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HTZ

Hertz Global

(NASDAQ:HTZ)

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Neutral 45 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(1.81% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is held down primarily by weakened financial quality—losses and declining revenue alongside high leverage and negative equity—despite currently positive cash generation. Technicals also remain bearish with the stock below major moving averages and negative momentum. The earnings call adds moderate support due to improving EBITDA/operational metrics, but ongoing recalls, pricing pressure, and outages temper confidence, and valuation is constrained by losses and no indicated dividend support.
Positive Factors
Fleet renewal & utilization
A materially younger fleet and record utilization reduce maintenance costs, improve reliability and customer satisfaction, and raise revenue per unit. Over months, this supports better unit economics, stronger resale values and more efficient capital deployment across rental and remarketing channels.
Improving underlying profitability
Sustained EBITDA improvement and a return to positive EPS reflect operational leverage and pricing/mix gains. If maintained, higher EBITDA provides durable cash flow to service debt, fund fleet replacement, and support reinvestment, enabling a multi-quarter path toward structural profitability.
Asset-backed securitization to fund fleet
Using asset-backed notes ties financing to rental fleet cash flows, preserving unsecured capacity and matching funding to asset life. This durable funding source can lower refinancing risk, finance vehicle acquisitions, and help manage maturities if executed with disciplined covenant and amortization profiles.
Negative Factors
High leverage and negative equity
Severely negative equity and very high leverage constrain financial flexibility, increase refinancing risk and borrowing costs, and limit ability to absorb shocks. Long-term recovery depends on sustained cash generation to deleverage, which is challenging under stressed capital structure.
Persistent net losses and revenue decline
Chronic net losses and falling top-line undermine retained earnings and the company's ability to self-fund growth or debt reduction. Without durable revenue recovery or structural margin improvement, profitability remains fragile and reliant on continued operational improvements or external capital.
Negative free cash flow after capex
Negative free cash flow despite positive operations implies fleet investment and capex consume cash, limiting capacity to pay down debt or return capital. Over months, sustained negative FCF heightens refinancing and liquidity risk unless capex intensity eases or cash conversion improves.

Hertz Global (HTZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Hertz Global Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHertz Global Holdings, Inc. operates as a vehicle rental company. It operates through two segments, Americas Rental Car and International Rental Car. The company provides vehicle rental services under the Hertz, Dollar, and Thrifty brands from company-owned, licensee, and franchisee locations in the United States, Africa, Asia, Australia, Canada, the Caribbean, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and New Zealand. It also sells vehicles; and operates the Firefly vehicle rental brand and Hertz 24/7 car sharing business in international markets. Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Estero, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyHertz generates revenue primarily through its car rental services, which accounts for the majority of its earnings. Customers pay for daily, weekly, or monthly rentals, with rates varying based on vehicle type, rental duration, and geographic location. Additionally, Hertz earns money from ancillary services, including insurance products, GPS rentals, and fuel purchase options. The company also benefits from long-term vehicle leasing and fleet management services provided to corporate clients. Partnerships with airlines and travel agencies enhance its visibility and customer reach, leading to strategic collaborations that drive additional bookings. Furthermore, Hertz has engaged in fleet acquisition and management strategies, allowing it to maintain an optimal fleet size and reduce operational costs, ultimately contributing to its profitability.

Hertz Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Shows profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be financial challenges.
Chart InsightsHertz Global's U.S. Rental Cars segment has shown a volatile recovery, with a significant turnaround in Q2 2025, moving from deep losses to a positive income. This aligns with the company's strategic focus on fleet optimization and cost management, as highlighted in their earnings call. Despite challenges like pricing pressures and recall impacts, Hertz's improved fleet utilization and strong retail vehicle sales indicate a positive trajectory. The International Rental Cars segment also returned to profitability, reflecting operational improvements. The earnings call underscores a cautiously optimistic outlook, aiming for a $1 billion adjusted corporate EBITDA by 2027.
Data provided by:The Fly

Hertz Global Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was generally positive with significant improvements in revenue, fleet management, and customer satisfaction. However, challenges remain due to fleet recalls, pricing pressures, and system outages impacting revenue.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Significant EBITDA Improvement
Achieved $2.5 billion in revenue and an adjusted corporate EBITDA of $190 million, which is a $350 million year-over-year improvement. Achieved positive EPS for the first time in 2 years.
Fleet Transformation Success
Completed a transformative fleet refresh, achieving a record high utilization rate since 2018. The average fleet age is now under 12 months.
Hertz Car Sales Expansion
Hertz car sales transformed into a profit accretive engine with the rent-to-buy program available in over 100 cities, achieving a 70% conversion rate.
Improvement in Customer Satisfaction
Net Promoter Score in North America increased by nearly 50% year-over-year.
Strong International Performance
International segment saw strong margins with larger RPD and RPU gains in a strong pricing environment.
Negative Updates
Challenges with Fleet Recalls
Over 2% of the U.S. fleet was under recall, impacting utilization.
Decline in Government Demand
Significant decline in government demand since November due to federal government issues, impacting revenue.
Pricing Pressure and RPD Decline
Global RPD was down approximately 4% year-over-year, with fleet mix changes negatively impacting RPD by 2%.
System Outages Impacting Q4 Revenue
Three different external system outages affected operations, potentially costing $10 million to $20 million in Q4 revenue.
Company Guidance
In the third quarter of 2025, Hertz Global Holdings reported $2.5 billion in revenue and an adjusted corporate EBITDA of $190 million, marking a $350 million year-over-year improvement. This quarter also saw Hertz achieve positive EPS for the first time in two years. The company completed a significant fleet refresh, resulting in a record high utilization rate since 2018, despite 2% of the U.S. fleet being under recall. Hertz maintained a sub-$350 DPU goal and made progress toward an annual target RPU of over $1,500. The Net Promoter Score in North America increased nearly 50% year-over-year, reflecting enhanced customer satisfaction. Hertz aims to scale its Hertz car sales and e-commerce channels, targeting a $2,000 incremental margin benefit per vehicle. The company's strategic focus includes expanding its rent-a-car, fleet, service, and mobility platforms to unlock new revenue streams and create a diversified value-creating platform.

Hertz Global Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cash flow is currently supportive (TTM operating cash flow ~$1.63B; free cash flow ~$1.42B), but profitability has deteriorated with revenue down ~14.1% TTM and net losses persisting (TTM net margin ~-12.1%). The biggest constraint is balance-sheet risk: high debt (~$17.1B) alongside negative equity (~-$0.46B) reduces flexibility and elevates refinancing/downturn risk.
Income Statement
34
Negative
Profitability has deteriorated materially versus prior years. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue fell ~14.1% and net losses persisted (net margin ~-12.1%), following a very weak 2024 (net margin ~-31.6% and negative operating profitability). While 2022–2023 showed strong margins and positive earnings, the recent downshift in revenue and return to losses outweighs the still-positive TTM EBITDA margin (~28.0%), pointing to elevated costs/charges below EBITDA and weaker earnings quality.
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Leverage is high and the capital structure has weakened. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) total debt is ~$17.1B against negative equity (~-$0.46B), which is a meaningful balance-sheet risk signal and reduces financial flexibility. The company previously had positive equity (e.g., ~$3.1B in 2023), but the sharp erosion into negative territory, alongside sustained high debt levels, increases refinancing and downturn vulnerability even though total assets remain sizable (~$22.3B TTM).
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
Cash generation is a relative bright spot, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow of ~$1.63B and positive free cash flow of ~$1.42B. However, momentum is mixed: TTM free cash flow declined sharply (growth ~-28.1%) and historical free cash flow has been highly volatile, including very large outflows in 2021–2024 despite positive operating cash flow in those years. Overall, cash flow is currently supportive, but variability and recent weakening reduce confidence in durability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.50B9.05B9.37B8.69B7.34B5.26B
Gross Profit987.00M283.00M1.73B3.03B2.74B-376.00M
EBITDA2.86B1.85B3.64B3.84B1.95B1.04B
Net Income-747.00M-2.86B616.00M2.06B366.00M-1.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets22.31B21.80B24.61B22.50B19.78B16.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.17B592.00M764.00M943.00M2.26B1.10B
Total Debt17.05B18.41B17.83B15.66B4.50B6.32B
Total Liabilities22.77B21.65B21.51B19.85B16.81B16.82B
Stockholders Equity-459.00M153.00M3.09B2.65B2.98B56.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.42B-8.40B-7.23B-1.71B-5.42B-4.69B
Operating Cash Flow1.63B2.22B2.47B2.54B1.81B953.00M
Investing Cash Flow-2.00B-2.93B-4.02B-4.23B-3.54B4.59B
Financing Cash Flow372.00M658.00M1.31B487.00M2.85B-5.37B

Hertz Global Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.42
Price Trends
50DMA
5.22
Negative
100DMA
5.36
Negative
200DMA
5.90
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.21
Positive
RSI
35.52
Neutral
STOCH
12.61
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.97, below the 50-day MA of 5.22, and below the 200-day MA of 5.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.61 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HTZ.

Hertz Global Risk Analysis

Hertz Global disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hertz Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Hertz Global Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$1.40B12.2818.91%0.82%27.90%19.25%
70
Outperform
$2.82B19.3812.70%1.79%4.77%-35.44%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
58
Neutral
$4.96B4,643.440.06%1.79%19.40%-120.47%
51
Neutral
$4.29B-72.51-5.65%1.44%-3.64%867.62%
45
Neutral
$1.38B-1.28-567.03%-7.36%62.27%
44
Neutral
$3.31B-3.67-1.22%-639.34%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HTZ
Hertz Global
4.42
0.24
5.74%
CAR
Avis Budget
92.90
12.68
15.81%
WSC
WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings
21.87
-10.62
-32.69%
HRI
Herc Holdings
141.63
-0.46
-0.32%
MGRC
Mcgrath Rentcorp
115.69
-6.23
-5.11%
WLFC
Willis Lease Finance
204.32
5.56
2.80%

Hertz Global Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hertz Global Issues $1 Billion Asset-Backed Notes
Neutral
Dec 5, 2025

On December 5, 2025, Hertz Vehicle Financing III LLC, a subsidiary of The Hertz Corporation, issued two series of fixed rate rental car asset-backed notes totaling $1 billion. This move is part of Hertz’s strategy to finance its U.S. rental car fleet through securitization, with proceeds partly used to repay existing debt and potentially fund future vehicle acquisitions. Additionally, Hertz announced its intention to redeem $300 million of its senior notes due in 2026, reflecting a strategic effort to manage its debt obligations and optimize financial operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTZ) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hertz Global stock, see the HTZ Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 26, 2026