Hertz Global (HTZ)
NASDAQ:HTZ
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Hertz Global
(NASDAQ:HTZ)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-0.91% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/10/26
The score is held back primarily by weak profitability trends and significant balance-sheet risk (high debt and negative equity), despite currently positive free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages, but overbought indicators raise near-term volatility risk. Earnings-call commentary is a modest positive due to improving operating trajectory and maintained long-term targets, tempered by near-term margin weakness and expected liquidity pressure.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for fleet purchases, working capital and strategic initiatives. Over 2–6 months this supports operational flexibility, funds targeted fleet rotation and can offset some refinancing needs despite volatility in FCF growth.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Material leverage and negative equity constrain financial flexibility and increase refinancing and covenant risk. Over a 2–6 month horizon this reduces the company's ability to absorb shocks, limits strategic optionality and raises funding cost sensitivity during liquidity troughs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for fleet purchases, working capital and strategic initiatives. Over 2–6 months this supports operational flexibility, funds targeted fleet rotation and can offset some refinancing needs despite volatility in FCF growth.
Read all positive factors
Hertz Global (HTZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.05B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth-7.36%
EPS Growth62.27%
CountryUS
Employees26,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.63
Shares Outstanding312,360,700
10 Day Avg. Volume12,515,067
30 Day Avg. Volume8,384,873
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)-3.47
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-0.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.38
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.53
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.67Price Target Upside-44.05% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.86B
Hertz Global Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. operates as a vehicle rental company. It operates through two segments, Americas Rental Car and International Rental Car. The company provides vehicle rental services under the Hertz, Dollar, and Thrifty brands from com...
How the Company Makes Money
Hertz makes money primarily by renting vehicles to customers and charging for associated products and services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Time-and-mileage rental charges: the core rental rate collected for vehicle use, typically priced by d...
Hertz Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Shows profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be financial challenges.
Shows profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be financial challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHertz Global Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented substantial operational and strategic progress — including a >$1 billion full-year adjusted EBITDA improvement, fleet rotation, younger average fleet age, improved unit economics (DOE -6%), and a nearly 50% increase in Net Promoter Score — while acknowledging several pronounced but described as transitory headwinds in Q4 (elevated recalls, a $60M noncash depreciation charge from Black Book residuals, a ~$20M loss on asset sales, government shutdown impacts and temporary liquidity pressure). Management pointed to early 2026 revenue and RPD strength, maintained disciplined growth targets, and reiterated multi-year ambitions (including $1B adjusted EBITDA in 2027) while keeping 2026 guidance unchanged (3%–6% adjusted EBITDA margin). Overall, positives on execution, customer experience, fleet economics and strategic initiatives significantly outweighed the discrete quarter-specific challenges.Positive Updates
Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Hertz achieved a full-year adjusted EBITDA improvement of more than $1.0 billion year-over-year for 2025, reflecting material progress on profitability versus the prior year.
Negative Updates
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Loss and Shortfall vs. Target
Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA was approximately negative $200 million (a $150 million YoY improvement) but about $100 million below management's target for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Hertz achieved a full-year adjusted EBITDA improvement of more than $1.0 billion year-over-year for 2025, reflecting material progress on profitability versus the prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Hertz expects Q1 2026 transaction days and fleet to increase low‑single‑digits year‑over‑year, total fleet utilization to be roughly flat, and revenue to be up mid‑single‑digits with fleet growth only in the low‑single‑digits; Q1 margin guidance is negative high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit (an implied ~600–800 bps YoY improvement) assuming DPU around $300/unit. For the full year management is maintaining a 3%–6% adjusted EBITDA margin outlook and reiterated a $1 billion adjusted EBITDA target for 2027, while aiming to keep DPU at or below ~$300/month (FY2025 net DPU was $300/month; Q4 2025 DPU was $330/unit, down 21% YoY). Recent operating results cited include Q4 revenue of $2.0 billion (RPD ~‑1% YoY, nearly flat ex‑loyalty), Q4 adjusted EBITDA roughly negative $200 million (a $150 million YoY improvement), >$1 billion adjusted EBITDA improvement in 2025 vs. 2024, DOE per transaction day of $36.39 (‑6% YoY), total fleet ~3% smaller, utilization up ~200 bps YoY in Q4, and recall peaks of >20,000 vehicles (~3x normal) that should moderate in Q1. Liquidity ended Q4 at about $1.5 billion (≈$1.2 billion after recent payments); management expects a liquidity trough below $1.0 billion at end‑Q2 before finishing 2026 well north of $1.0 billion, supported by a ~+$200 million financing, >$500 million of additional opportunities and ~ $400 million of first‑lien capacity.Hertz Global Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 8.50B | 9.05B | 9.37B | 8.69B | 7.34B |
| Gross Profit | 1.03B | 283.00M | 1.73B | 3.03B | 2.74B |
| EBITDA | 2.51B | 1.85B | 3.64B | 3.84B | 1.95B |
| Net Income | -747.00M | -2.86B | 616.00M | 2.06B | 366.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 22.31B | 21.80B | 24.61B | 22.50B | 19.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.17B | 592.00M | 764.00M | 943.00M | 2.26B |
| Total Debt | 19.20B | 18.41B | 17.83B | 15.66B | 4.50B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.77B | 21.65B | 21.51B | 19.85B | 16.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | -459.00M | 153.00M | 3.09B | 2.65B | 2.98B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -8.65B | -8.40B | -7.23B | -1.71B | -5.42B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.63B | 2.22B | 2.47B | 2.54B | 1.81B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.00B | -2.93B | -4.02B | -4.23B | -3.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 372.00M | 658.00M | 1.31B | 487.00M | 2.85B |
Hertz Global Technical Analysis
Positive
6.56
Price Trends
4.87
Positive
5.08
Positive
5.62
Positive
Market Momentum
0.63
Negative
72.41
Negative
86.79
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.33, above the 50-day MA of 4.87, and above the 200-day MA of 5.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.41 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HTZ.
Hertz Global Risk Analysis
Hertz Global disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hertz Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hertz Global Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $2.83B | 12.96 | 13.21% | 1.79% | 4.77% | -35.44% | |
64 Neutral | $1.42B | 8.05 | 16.94% | 0.82% | 27.90% | 19.25% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
51 Neutral | $2.05B | -2.13 | 193.77% | ― | -7.36% | 62.27% | |
51 Neutral | $3.45B | -64.81 | -5.35% | 1.44% | -3.64% | 867.62% | |
50 Neutral | $13.98B | -5.08 | 32.05% | ― | -1.22% | -639.34% | |
47 Neutral | $3.35B | 4,644.29 | 0.06% | 1.79% | 19.40% | -120.47% |
* Industrials Sector Average
HTZ
Hertz Global
6.98
-1.26
-15.29%
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104.10
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-9.68%
MGRC
Mcgrath Rentcorp
115.39
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WLFC
Willis Lease Finance
203.58
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43.83%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.