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Hertz Global (HTZ)
NASDAQ:HTZ

Hertz Global Holdings Inc (HTZ) AI Stock Analysis

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Hertz Global Holdings Inc

(NASDAQ:HTZ)

Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▼(-13.52%Downside)
Hertz Global's overall stock score reflects significant financial difficulties, including declining revenue, negative earnings, and high leverage, which are major concerns. While there are some strategic improvements noted in fleet management and cost control, they are overshadowed by ongoing challenges in revenue and market conditions. Technical indicators offer mixed signals, and the valuation remains unattractive due to negative profitability. The earnings call provided some positive strategic initiatives but also highlighted persistent risks.
Positive Factors
Leisure travel demand
The company continues to see strong demand in the leisure travel segment, with forward bookings increasing year-over-year.
Pershing Square investment
Pershing Square has reportedly taken a sizeable stake in HTZ, sending the shares up >50%.
Strategic partnerships
Hertz’s ongoing execution on cost efficiency measures includes a variety of partnerships with technology firms geared toward enhancing customer experience and cost productivity.
Negative Factors
Financial leverage and refinancing costs
The company is facing high financial leverage, potentially large free cash outflows should used vehicle prices decline more, high refinancing costs, and newly potential litigation costs.
Liquidity concerns
Liquidity has tightened significantly, with a notable reduction in available funds from the previous quarter.
Market share decline
HTZ is likely to cede market share due to macroeconomic uncertainty and signs of travel demand waning.

Hertz Global Holdings Inc (HTZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Hertz Global Holdings Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHertz Global Holdings, Inc. (Hertz) is a leading global car rental company with operations across North America, Europe, Latin America, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Australia, and New Zealand. The company operates the Hertz, Dollar, and Thrifty brands, offering a diverse fleet of vehicles for rent, including cars, SUVs, trucks, and vans. Hertz caters to both leisure and business travelers, providing convenient vehicle rental solutions through airport locations, neighborhood branches, and online platforms.
How the Company Makes MoneyHertz Global Holdings generates revenue primarily through car rental fees, which include base rental charges and additional fees such as insurance, fuel, and GPS services. The company earns money from both leisure and corporate customers, with airport locations being significant revenue generators due to the high volume of travelers. Additionally, Hertz engages in vehicle sales, selling off used vehicles from its rental fleet through retail and wholesale channels. Partnerships with airlines, hotels, and travel agencies also contribute to customer acquisition and revenue growth by providing bundled travel services and loyalty program integrations.

Hertz Global Holdings Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -8.36%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a strategic focus on fleet management, cost reduction, and technological improvements, which are yielding positive results. However, there are significant challenges related to revenue decline, pricing, and macroeconomic uncertainties that need to be addressed.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Fleet Strategy Success
Over 70% of the core U.S. RAC fleet is now 12 months old or newer, showcasing a successful fleet refresh strategy that positions Hertz to benefit from rising residual values.
Cost Management Improvements
Achieved nearly $100 million year-over-year improvement in total direct operating expense, with sequential improvement in BOE per day despite lower volumes.
Technological Partnerships
Partnerships with UVI for AI-powered vehicle inspections, Amadeus for advanced revenue management, and expanded AI capabilities enhance operational efficiency and customer experience.
Revenue Management System Overhaul
Engaged in a multiyear transformation of revenue management systems with Amadeus, expected to deliver incremental EBITDA and enhance margins.
Liquidity and Financial Strategy
Strong liquidity position at $1.2 billion, with strategic amendments to the revolving credit facility to extend maturity dates and maintain financial flexibility.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline and Fleet Capacity Reduction
Revenue was down year-over-year due to an 8% reduction in fleet capacity, caused by macroeconomic uncertainties and strategic fleet management decisions.
Pricing and Utilization Challenges
Pricing for the quarter was down 5% year-over-year, influenced by fleet mix changes and temporary over-fleeting in certain local markets.
Macroeconomic and Market Uncertainty
Potential headwinds from macroeconomic conditions, including consumer sentiment and tariff impacts, present ongoing challenges.
Corporate and Government Demand Softness
Observed demand moderation in corporate, government, and U.S. inbound segments, contributing to fluctuations in overall demand.
Company Guidance
During the call, Hertz Global Holdings provided detailed guidance on several key metrics that are central to their strategy for the fiscal year 2025. The company emphasized their focus on disciplined fleet management, revenue optimization, and rigorous cost management as their three financial pillars. They reported a depreciation per unit (DPU) below $300, rental per unit (RPU) above $1,500, and direct operating expense (DOE) per day in the low $30s as their North Star metrics. Additionally, Hertz highlighted the transformation of their fleet, with over 70% of their U.S. rental fleet now being 12 months old or newer, which is contributing to improved metrics. The company is also managing cost effectively, achieving nearly a $100 million year-over-year improvement in total direct operating expenses, and expects this disciplined approach to yield a full-year EBITDA margin in the low single digits, with a target of over $1 billion EBITDA by 2027.

Hertz Global Holdings Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Hertz Global faces significant financial challenges with declining revenue, negative profitability, and high leverage. While operating cash flow remains positive, substantial liabilities and negative equity pose financial stability risks. The company needs to address revenue decline and leverage to improve its financial health.
Income Statement
40
Negative
Hertz Global's income statement reveals challenges with declining revenue, negative gross profit, and a significant net loss in the TTM. The gross profit margin has turned negative, and the net profit margin is also negative. Revenue has decreased by 3.44% from the previous year, indicating a concerning trend. The company shows a negative EBIT margin and a positive EBITDA margin, suggesting operational struggles but some ability to generate earnings before non-cash charges.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio due to substantial liabilities and minimal equity, indicating financial leverage risk. Stockholders' equity has decreased significantly, impacting the equity ratio negatively. The TTM return on equity is negative, reflecting the substantial net loss. Overall, the balance sheet highlights a risky financial position with potential solvency concerns.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows an increase in operating cash flow compared to net income, indicating an ability to generate cash despite net losses. However, free cash flow remains negative due to high capital expenditures, affecting the company's liquidity. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash generation struggles. Despite these issues, the company maintains positive operating cash flow.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
8.78B9.05B9.37B8.69B7.34B5.26B
Gross Profit
-236.00M-251.00M1.73B3.03B2.72B-401.00M
EBIT
-1.10B-1.07B756.00M2.07B2.06B-1.06B
EBITDA
1.05B1.85B3.64B3.84B1.35B1.04B
Net Income Common Stockholders
-3.12B-2.86B616.00M2.06B366.00M-1.72B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.02B592.00M774.00M943.00M2.26B1.10B
Total Assets
22.05B21.80B24.61B22.50B19.78B16.91B
Total Debt
16.77B18.41B17.83B15.66B12.42B7.90B
Net Debt
15.75B17.82B17.07B14.72B10.16B6.81B
Total Liabilities
22.31B21.65B21.51B19.85B16.81B16.82B
Stockholders Equity
-262.00M153.00M3.09B2.65B2.98B56.00M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-4.33B-8.40B-7.23B-8.21B-5.42B-4.69B
Operating Cash Flow
2.10B2.22B2.47B2.54B1.81B953.00M
Investing Cash Flow
-2.94B-2.93B-4.02B-4.23B-3.54B4.59B
Financing Cash Flow
573.00M658.00M1.31B487.00M2.85B-5.37B

Hertz Global Holdings Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price6.36
Price Trends
50DMA
6.22
Negative
100DMA
5.13
Positive
200DMA
4.33
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Positive
RSI
46.32
Neutral
STOCH
32.22
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTZ, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.50, above the 50-day MA of 6.22, and above the 200-day MA of 4.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HTZ.

Hertz Global Holdings Inc Risk Analysis

Hertz Global Holdings Inc disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hertz Global Holdings Inc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Hertz Global Holdings Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
RR
73
Outperform
$6.37B13.4816.41%2.10%6.21%47.05%
HRHRI
66
Neutral
$4.07B27.359.60%2.31%8.34%-63.02%
66
Neutral
$1.07B-3.76%-0.61%-248.58%
66
Neutral
$4.52B12.345.41%3.62%4.15%-12.18%
CACAR
57
Neutral
$4.43B8.2678.26%-2.78%-296.07%
HTHTZ
47
Neutral
$1.91B-244.63%-6.61%-1516.07%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HTZ
Hertz Global Holdings Inc
6.09
2.83
86.81%
CAR
Avis Budget
125.21
19.96
18.96%
HRI
Herc Holdings
119.27
-6.87
-5.45%
R
Ryder System
149.65
33.19
28.50%
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source
4.72
0.45
10.54%

Hertz Global Holdings Inc Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Hertz Global Elects Directors at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 22, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where four director nominees were elected to the Board of Directors for a three-year term. Additionally, stockholders ratified the appointment of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and approved the compensation of the company’s named executive officers on an advisory basis.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTZ) stock is a Sell with a $2.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hertz Global stock, see the HTZ Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Hertz Global Amends European ABS Facility Maturity
Neutral
May 9, 2025

On May 6, 2025, The Hertz Corporation announced an amendment to its credit agreement, extending the maturity date of $1.665 billion of its revolving credit facility to March 31, 2028, with certain additional limitations. Subsequently, on May 8, 2025, Hertz Vehicle Financing III LLC extended the commitment termination date for its Series 2021-A Variable Funding Rental Car Asset Backed Notes to May 7, 2027. Additionally, on May 9, 2025, Hertz’s affiliates amended their European ABS facility, extending the maturity date for €1.160 billion of Class A notes to April 30, 2027, impacting their vehicle fleet financing in several European countries.

Executive/Board Changes
Hertz Global’s Chief Accounting Officer Resigns
Neutral
Mar 18, 2025

On March 12, 2025, Kelly Galloway, Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer of Hertz Global Holdings, Inc., announced her resignation to pursue an opportunity outside the company. She will continue in her role until the filing of the quarterly report for the period ending March 31, 2025, after which Scott M. Haralson, the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will take over as the principal accounting officer.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.