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Hertz Global
(NASDAQ:HTZ)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-73.08% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/10/26
HTZ scores low primarily due to weak financial fundamentals (ongoing losses, negative equity/high leverage, and persistently negative free cash flow). Technicals also remain bearish with the stock far below key moving averages, despite oversold readings that could allow a short-term bounce. The earnings call adds some support through improving revenue/unit economics and reiterated margin targets, but recalls and continued negative profitability keep risk high.
Positive Factors
Revenue & unit economics recovery
Sustained top-line growth and rising revenue-per-day signal durable demand recovery and improving pricing power. Stronger RPD and transaction days improve unit-level margins and help absorb fixed fleet costs, supporting a multi-month path toward positive corporate economics if trends persist.
Negative Factors
High leverage / negative equity
Negative equity and a heavily levered balance sheet materially constrain financial flexibility and raise refinancing and solvency risk. Over months this limits strategic choices (fleet growth, M&A, buybacks) and increases sensitivity to demand or resale shocks, especially if credit markets tighten.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & unit economics recovery
Sustained top-line growth and rising revenue-per-day signal durable demand recovery and improving pricing power. Stronger RPD and transaction days improve unit-level margins and help absorb fixed fleet costs, supporting a multi-month path toward positive corporate economics if trends persist.
Read all positive factors
Hertz Global Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Shows profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be financial challenges.
Shows profitability across different business segments, highlighting which areas drive earnings and where there might be financial challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHertz Global (HTZ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$647.32M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)20.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth-0.99%
EPS Growth79.92%
CountryUS
Employees26,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.04
Shares Outstanding315,764,530
10 Day Avg. Volume29,463,144
30 Day Avg. Volume20,578,685
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)-3.47
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-0.18
Enterprise Value/Market Cap32.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.39
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.00Price Target Upside-46.16% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.12B
Hertz Global Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading player in the global vehicle rental industry. Its business is structured into two primary divisions: the Americas Rental Car segment and the International Rental Car segment. The company delivers i...
How the Company Makes Money
Hertz primarily makes money by renting vehicles to customers and charging fees tied to time, mileage (in some cases), and optional add-ons. Its core revenue stream is vehicle rental revenue, which includes daily/weekly/monthly rental charges paid ...
Hertz Global Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call emphasizes materially improved top-line momentum, improving unit economics and strategic progress on building a mobility platform (Oro) while acknowledging significant near-term headwinds from elevated recalls, ongoing GAAP losses and a modest pullback in capacity guidance. The operational and commercial trends (double-digit revenue growth vs. recent years, RPD gains, improved adjusted EBITDA performance, partnerships and product launches) are substantial positives that management believes will drive continued progress, but meaningful execution risk remains in managing recalls, returning to sustained profitability and scaling new mobility businesses.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue of $2.0 billion in Q1 2026, up 11% year-over-year — the company's strongest year-over-year revenue growth in three years; sequential improvements in RPU and RPD throughout the quarter.
Negative Updates
Continued GAAP Losses and Negative Adjusted EBITDA
GAAP net loss of $333 million in Q1 2026; adjusted EBITDA remains negative $161 million (though improved), indicating the company has not yet reached sustained GAAP profitability.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Revenue of $2.0 billion in Q1 2026, up 11% year-over-year — the company's strongest year-over-year revenue growth in three years; sequential improvements in RPU and RPD throughout the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On guidance, Hertz said it still expects to hit full‑year EBITDA margin of about 3%–6% (and is targeting $1.0B EBITDA in 2027) while modestly dialing back capacity: days are now expected up mid‑single‑digits (vs. prior mid‑to‑high) and fleet up low‑single‑digits (vs. prior mid‑single‑digits), with DOE per day roughly flat year‑over‑year; for Q2 specifically they expect days down 2–3% YoY, fleet down 1–2%, RPD improvement greater than Q1 (Q1 RPD ~5–5.5%), Q2 EBITDA margin in the low‑to‑mid single digits, and net DPU “well below” $300/month in Q2 (full‑year net DPU expected below the $300/month North Star). For context Q1 metrics included $2.0B revenue (+11% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of –$161M (improved $141M YoY), adjusted net loss of –$224M (improved ~$105M YoY), adjusted DOE/day $38.43 (+1.7% YoY), gross depreciation per unit/month $296 (Q1 net DPU $312), recalls up ~300% (removing ~16,000 vehicles/month and reducing utilization ~200 bps), and liquidity of ~$837M at quarter‑end (plus $200M ABS in April) with ~<$1B expected end‑Q2 and >$1.5B expected year‑end.Hertz Global Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.70B | 8.50B | 9.05B | 9.37B | 8.69B | 7.34B |
| Gross Profit | 1.11B | 971.00M | 283.00M | 1.73B | 3.03B | 2.74B |
| EBITDA | 2.65B | 2.51B | 1.85B | 3.64B | 3.84B | 1.95B |
| Net Income | -637.00M | -747.00M | -2.86B | 616.00M | 2.06B | 366.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 23.29B | 22.31B | 21.80B | 24.61B | 22.50B | 19.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.22B | 1.17B | 592.00M | 764.00M | 943.00M | 2.26B |
| Total Debt | 20.48B | 19.20B | 18.41B | 17.83B | 15.66B | 4.50B |
| Total Liabilities | 24.07B | 22.77B | 21.65B | 21.51B | 19.85B | 16.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | -786.00M | -459.00M | 153.00M | 3.09B | 2.65B | 2.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -7.93B | -8.65B | -8.40B | -7.23B | -1.71B | -5.42B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.39B | 1.63B | 2.22B | 2.47B | 2.54B | 1.81B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.38B | -2.00B | -2.93B | -4.02B | -4.23B | -3.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.16B | 372.00M | 658.00M | 1.31B | 487.00M | 2.85B |
Hertz Global Technical Analysis
Negative
7.43
Price Trends
4.67
Negative
4.88
Negative
5.19
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.85
Positive
22.21
Positive
16.55
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.40, above the 50-day MA of 4.67, and above the 200-day MA of 5.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.21 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HTZ.
Hertz Global Risk Analysis
Hertz Global disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hertz Global reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hertz Global Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $1.70B | 13.02 | 17.33% | 0.82% | 23.13% | 12.80% | |
68 Neutral | $2.87B | 18.51 | 12.84% | 1.79% | 3.14% | -34.73% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $4.75B | -71.07 | -7.11% | 1.44% | -4.12% | -487.73% | |
56 Neutral | $4.97B | -557.22 | -0.26% | 1.79% | 28.39% | -105.83% | |
48 Neutral | $5.52B | -8.35 | 22.83% | ― | 0.72% | 69.91% | |
44 Neutral | $647.32M | -1.04 | 123.33% | ― | -0.99% | 79.92% |
* Industrials Sector Average
HTZ
Hertz Global
2.05
-5.86
-74.08%
CAR
Avis Budget
156.19
-38.67
-19.85%
WSC
WillScot Mobile Mini Holdings
26.24
-3.52
-11.84%
HRI
Herc Holdings
148.91
15.54
11.65%
MGRC
Mcgrath Rentcorp
116.76
-0.65
-0.56%
WLFC
Willis Lease Finance
221.01
81.61
58.54%
Hertz Global Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hertz Global prices exchangeable notes and equity offering
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
On June 29, 2026, The Hertz Corporation completed a $350 million private offering of 6.75% Exchangeable Senior First-Lien Secured PIK Notes due 2030, with an option for initial purchasers to buy an additional $50 million. The notes, partially paya...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hertz Global Prices Exchangeable Notes and Share Offering
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
On June 25, 2026, Hertz Global priced a SEC-registered offering of 37,037,037 common shares at $2.70 each, lending these “Borrowed Shares” to underwriter J.P. Morgan Securities under a share lending agreement to support hedging activit...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Hertz Global Announces Equity Lending and Exchangeable Notes
Neutral
Jun 24, 2026
On June 24, 2026, Hertz Global Holdings announced plans for a SEC-registered offering of $100 million of common stock whose shares will be lent to J.P. Morgan Securities to support hedging activity tied to a concurrent exchangeable notes transacti...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Hertz Expects Solid Q2 Demand Despite Depreciation Headwinds
Negative
Jun 24, 2026
Hertz Global said it expects its second-quarter 2026 fleet size, revenue, revenue per day (RPD) and rental days to align with or slightly exceed earlier expectations, citing healthy demand and better-than-anticipated capacity utilization, with yea...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hertz Global Issues $1 Billion Rental Car ABS Notes
Neutral
Jun 2, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Hertz Vehicle Financing III LLC, a special‑purpose subsidiary of The Hertz Corporation, issued two series of fixed‑rate rental car asset‑backed notes totaling $1 billion, split evenly between Series 2026‑1 ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Hertz Global Shareholders Back Board Nominees and Governance
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. stockholders elected Lucy Clark Dougherty and Evangeline Vougessis to the board of directors, each to serve until the 2029 annual meeting, reinforcing continuity in the company’s governance struct...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hertz Global Expands U.S. and European Fleet Financing Capacity
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 24, 2026, Hertz Vehicle Financing III LLC, a special-purpose subsidiary of The Hertz Corporation, amended multiple U.S. securitization series to issue a new tranche of subordinated Class E fixed-rate rental car asset-backed notes totaling...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.