Custom Truck One Source (CTOS)
NYSE:CTOS
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Custom Truck One Source
(NYSE:CTOS)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(31.41% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/01/26
The score is held back mainly by balance-sheet and cash-flow risk (high leverage, recent net losses, and negative free cash flow), partially offset by constructive earnings-call momentum (raised EBITDA outlook and deleveraging/FCF targets) and strong technical trend signals that are tempered by overbought conditions.
Positive Factors
Diversified revenue model and recurring streams
A multi-pronged business model—sales, rentals, parts & service, upfitting, and remarketing—reduces reliance on a single cycle and supports recurring revenue. This structural diversity smooths cash flow across infrastructure cycles and enables cross‑sell and higher lifetime customer value.
Negative Factors
High leverage limits flexibility
Elevated leverage constrains strategic optionality and raises refinancing and interest risk. Achieving durable deleveraging depends on consistent free cash flow and execution; until leverage meaningfully declines, capital allocation and downturn resilience remain constrained for multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified revenue model and recurring streams
A multi-pronged business model—sales, rentals, parts & service, upfitting, and remarketing—reduces reliance on a single cycle and supports recurring revenue. This structural diversity smooths cash flow across infrastructure cycles and enables cross‑sell and higher lifetime customer value.
Read all positive factors
Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.24B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)784.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.58
Revenue Growth9.38%
EPS Growth43.77%
CountryUS
Employees2,619
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.02
Shares Outstanding227,432,820
10 Day Avg. Volume748,621
30 Day Avg. Volume784,820
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.52
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.67
P/FCF Ratio-12.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.30
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.92Price Target Upside30.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.05B
Custom Truck One Source Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Custom Truck One Source, Inc. provides specialty equipment rental services to the electric utility transmission and distribution, telecommunications, rail, other infrastructure-related industries in North America. It operates through Equipment Ren...
How the Company Makes Money
CTOS generates revenue through multiple, complementary streams tied to specialty work equipment. (1) Equipment sales: the company sells new and used vocational trucks and specialty equipment; revenue is recognized at the point of sale, and sales c...
Custom Truck One Source Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Details revenue contributions from each business segment, revealing growth drivers and diversification of income sources.
Details revenue contributions from each business segment, revealing growth drivers and diversification of income sources.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCustom Truck One Source Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 27, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial momentum: record Q1 revenue and a massive year-over-year adjusted EBITDA increase, improving rental KPIs, growing backlog, affirming revenue guidance and raising adjusted EBITDA guidance, and clear plans for reduced maintenance spend and improved free cash flow to delever. Headwinds are present—notably elevated leverage, inventory/working-capital levels, tougher Q2 comps, and some supply-chain/tariff risk—but management outlined concrete actions and expectations to mitigate these risks and achieve deleveraging and cash-flow targets.Positive Updates
Record First-Quarter Revenue and EBITDA
Total revenue of $462.0M and adjusted EBITDA of $98.0M in Q1 2026; adjusted EBITDA grew more than 933% year-over-year versus Q1 2025.
Negative Updates
High Leverage Remains a Near-Term Risk
Net debt of $1.65B and net leverage slightly above 4.0x (though improved sequentially ~30 bps and ~80 bps YoY); deleveraging is a focus but remains dependent on achieving FCF targets and executing on working capital improvements.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record First-Quarter Revenue and EBITDA
Total revenue of $462.0M and adjusted EBITDA of $98.0M in Q1 2026; adjusted EBITDA grew more than 933% year-over-year versus Q1 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management affirmed 2026 consolidated revenue guidance of $2.005–$2.12 billion and raised adjusted EBITDA to $415–$440 million (implying ~3%–9% revenue growth and ~8%–15% EBITDA growth y/y); segment targets are SER revenue of $835–$870 million (rental fleet net OEC expected to grow mid‑single digits, net rental CapEx of ~$150–$170 million) and STEM revenue of $1.58–$1.655 billion (STEM third‑party growth of 3%–10%, with overall STEM sales including intersegment flat to slightly down), with non‑rental CapEx of $40–$50 million, levered free cash flow >$50 million, plans to reduce inventory from roughly 7–7.5 months toward <6 months, current net debt of $1.65 billion against LTM adjusted EBITDA >$408 million (net leverage just over 4x now, targeted meaningfully below 4x by year‑end and ~3x in 2027), ABL availability of $257 million with ~ $190 million additional potential capacity; the raise reflects stronger T&D fundamentals, higher utilization/OEC and margin/operational improvements.Custom Truck One Source Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.98B | 1.94B | 1.80B | 1.87B | 1.57B | 1.17B |
| Gross Profit | 394.91M | 367.36M | 343.43M | 410.09M | 340.39M | 165.65M |
| EBITDA | 369.06M | 409.76M | 380.66M | 414.78M | 359.12M | 104.84M |
| Net Income | -17.36M | -31.05M | -28.66M | 50.71M | 38.91M | -181.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.55B | 3.74B | 3.50B | 3.37B | 2.94B | 2.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.61M | 6.27M | 3.81M | 10.31M | 14.36M | 35.90M |
| Total Debt | 2.49B | 2.42B | 2.43B | 2.20B | 1.83B | 1.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.74B | 2.93B | 2.64B | 2.45B | 2.05B | 1.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 805.24M | 809.10M | 861.31M | 917.20M | 888.44M | 858.51M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -33.20M | -107.59M | -353.63M | -511.64M | -358.74M | -31.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 322.00M | 349.39M | 44.68M | -147.45M | -17.95M | 157.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -270.39M | -282.46M | -187.49M | -176.60M | -218.94M | -1.43B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -47.59M | -64.55M | 135.58M | 319.44M | 217.82M | 1.30B |
Custom Truck One Source Technical Analysis
Positive
7.61
Price Trends
6.81
Positive
6.49
Positive
6.21
Positive
Market Momentum
0.23
Negative
69.29
Neutral
81.92
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTOS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.61 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.81, above the 50-day MA of 6.81, and above the 200-day MA of 6.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTOS.
Custom Truck One Source Risk Analysis
Custom Truck One Source disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Custom Truck One Source reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Custom Truck One Source Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $2.72B | 25.10 | 13.21% | 1.79% | 3.14% | -34.73% | |
67 Neutral | $9.82B | 21.79 | 16.39% | 1.75% | -0.07% | 4.18% | |
64 Neutral | $1.48B | 8.05 | 16.94% | 0.82% | 29.01% | 0.08% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
56 Neutral | $4.24B | -34.53 | -0.26% | 1.79% | 28.39% | -105.83% | |
55 Neutral | $2.24B | -90.75 | -2.18% | ― | 9.38% | 43.77% | |
51 Neutral | $4.09B | -64.81 | -5.35% | 1.44% | -4.77% | -287.56% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Custom Truck One Source Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Custom Truck One Source Posts Record Q1 2026 Results
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
On April 27, 2026, Custom Truck One Source reported record first-quarter 2026 revenue of $461.6 million, up 9.3% year over year, driven by strong performance in its transmission and distribution markets and robust demand in its new Specialty Equip...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Custom Truck One Source Plans Segment Reporting Realignment Webinar
Neutral
Mar 25, 2026
Custom Truck One Source, Inc. is one of the largest North American providers of specialty equipment, parts, tools, accessories and related services to the electric utility transmission and distribution, telecommunications and rail markets. The com...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Custom Truck One Source Reports Record 2025 Revenue Growth
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Custom Truck One Source, Inc. reported record fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $528.2 million, up 1.4% year over year, and record full-year 2025 revenue of $1.94 billion, a 7.9% increase from 2024, while quarterly net income decli...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.