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Custom Truck One Source
(NYSE:CTOS)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(1.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance (sharp TTM revenue contraction, thin net margins, historically high leverage, and volatile free cash flow) offset by a very constructive earnings call with raised EBITDA guidance, improving operating KPIs, and a clearer free-cash-flow/deleveraging plan. Technicals are modestly supportive with the stock above key moving averages, while valuation is pressured by negative earnings and no provided dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High rental fleet utilization & scale
Sustained high fleet utilization and record rental OEC support recurring rental revenue and higher rental yields. A large, actively rented fleet creates durable cashflow from rentals, reduces per-unit fixed cost, and provides resilience to cyclical equipment sales swings over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage near 4x materially constrains financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to operating setbacks. Durable deleveraging depends on sustained FCF and working-capital improvements; failure to hit targets would leave the company exposed to interest-cost variability and limited ability to fund strategic investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High rental fleet utilization & scale
Sustained high fleet utilization and record rental OEC support recurring rental revenue and higher rental yields. A large, actively rented fleet creates durable cashflow from rentals, reduces per-unit fixed cost, and provides resilience to cyclical equipment sales swings over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Custom Truck One Source Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Details revenue contributions from each business segment, revealing growth drivers and diversification of income sources.
Details revenue contributions from each business segment, revealing growth drivers and diversification of income sources.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCustom Truck One Source (CTOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.31B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)784.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.51
Revenue Growth9.38%
EPS Growth43.77%
CountryUS
Employees2,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding227,432,820
10 Day Avg. Volume748,621
30 Day Avg. Volume784,820
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.47
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.67
P/FCF Ratio-12.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.00Price Target Upside10.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.05B
Custom Truck One Source Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (CTOS) specializes in providing comprehensive services for specialty equipment across North America, serving crucial industries such as electric utility (transmission and distribution), telecommunications, rail, and o...
How the Company Makes Money
CTOS generates revenue primarily through three core activities: (1) Equipment rental: CTOS rents out specialty trucks, aerial devices, cranes, material handling, and other vocational equipment to contractors and operators, earning rental fees over...
Custom Truck One Source Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 27, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial momentum: record Q1 revenue and a massive year-over-year adjusted EBITDA increase, improving rental KPIs, growing backlog, affirming revenue guidance and raising adjusted EBITDA guidance, and clear plans for reduced maintenance spend and improved free cash flow to delever. Headwinds are present—notably elevated leverage, inventory/working-capital levels, tougher Q2 comps, and some supply-chain/tariff risk—but management outlined concrete actions and expectations to mitigate these risks and achieve deleveraging and cash-flow targets.Positive Updates
Record First-Quarter Revenue and EBITDA
Total revenue of $462.0M and adjusted EBITDA of $98.0M in Q1 2026; adjusted EBITDA grew more than 933% year-over-year versus Q1 2025.
Negative Updates
High Leverage Remains a Near-Term Risk
Net debt of $1.65B and net leverage slightly above 4.0x (though improved sequentially ~30 bps and ~80 bps YoY); deleveraging is a focus but remains dependent on achieving FCF targets and executing on working capital improvements.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record First-Quarter Revenue and EBITDA
Total revenue of $462.0M and adjusted EBITDA of $98.0M in Q1 2026; adjusted EBITDA grew more than 933% year-over-year versus Q1 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management affirmed 2026 consolidated revenue guidance of $2.005–$2.12 billion and raised adjusted EBITDA to $415–$440 million (implying ~3%–9% revenue growth and ~8%–15% EBITDA growth y/y); segment targets are SER revenue of $835–$870 million (rental fleet net OEC expected to grow mid‑single digits, net rental CapEx of ~$150–$170 million) and STEM revenue of $1.58–$1.655 billion (STEM third‑party growth of 3%–10%, with overall STEM sales including intersegment flat to slightly down), with non‑rental CapEx of $40–$50 million, levered free cash flow >$50 million, plans to reduce inventory from roughly 7–7.5 months toward <6 months, current net debt of $1.65 billion against LTM adjusted EBITDA >$408 million (net leverage just over 4x now, targeted meaningfully below 4x by year‑end and ~3x in 2027), ABL availability of $257 million with ~ $190 million additional potential capacity; the raise reflects stronger T&D fundamentals, higher utilization/OEC and margin/operational improvements.Custom Truck One Source Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.47B | 1.94B | 1.80B | 1.87B | 1.57B | 1.17B |
| Gross Profit | 302.64M | 367.36M | 343.43M | 410.09M | 340.39M | 165.65M |
| EBITDA | 267.16M | 397.67M | 380.66M | 414.78M | 359.12M | 104.84M |
| Net Income | 11.03M | -31.05M | -28.66M | 50.71M | 38.91M | -181.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.60M | 3.74B | 3.50B | 3.37B | 2.94B | 2.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.29K | 6.27M | 3.81M | 10.31M | 14.36M | 35.90M |
| Total Debt | 125.29K | 2.42B | 2.43B | 2.20B | 1.83B | 1.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.80M | 2.93B | 2.64B | 2.45B | 2.05B | 1.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 815.96K | 809.10M | 861.31M | 917.20M | 888.44M | 858.51M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.20M | -107.59M | -353.63M | -511.64M | -358.74M | -31.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 245.89M | 349.39M | 44.68M | -147.45M | -17.95M | 157.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -142.76M | -282.46M | -187.49M | -176.60M | -218.94M | -1.43B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -102.40M | -64.55M | 135.58M | 319.44M | 217.82M | 1.30B |
Custom Truck One Source Technical Analysis
Positive
10.86
Price Trends
10.42
Positive
9.16
Positive
7.75
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.05
Positive
53.20
Neutral
46.48
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTOS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.86 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.34, above the 50-day MA of 10.42, and above the 200-day MA of 7.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTOS.
Custom Truck One Source Risk Analysis
Custom Truck One Source disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Custom Truck One Source reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Custom Truck One Source Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $2.81B | 18.51 | 12.84% | 1.63% | -0.92% | -39.51% | |
68 Neutral | $9.83B | 20.81 | 16.70% | 1.36% | 1.12% | 3.84% | |
65 Neutral | $1.64B | 37.48 | 17.33% | 0.70% | 23.13% | 12.80% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $4.39B | -65.62 | -7.11% | 1.06% | -4.12% | -487.73% | |
58 Neutral | $2.31B | -121.85 | -2.18% | ― | 9.38% | 43.77% | |
49 Neutral | $5.02B | 102.14 | 2.56% | 1.72% | 28.50% | 67.75% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source
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Custom Truck One Source Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Custom Truck One Source Raises 2026 Outlook After Record Q2
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Custom Truck One Source reported record second-quarter 2026 revenue of $563.4 million, up 10.2% year over year, driven by strong transmission and distribution markets and robust performance across both segments. The company also...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Custom Truck One Source Shareholders Reelect Directors, Ratify Auditor
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Custom Truck One Source held its annual stockholders meeting, at which shareholders elected three Class A directors, Paul Bader, Mark D. Ein, and David Glatt, to serve until the 2029 annual meeting, reflecting continuity in the c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.