Custom Truck One Source (CTOS)
NYSE:CTOS
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Custom Truck One Source
(NYSE:CTOS)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▼(-3.58% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/11/26
CTOS scores low primarily due to strained financial performance (high leverage, recent losses, and consistently negative free cash flow) and weak technicals (downtrend with negative momentum). The latest earnings call is a meaningful offset, with upbeat 2026 guidance and a clearer path to deleveraging and free cash flow, but it has not yet translated into stronger reported fundamentals or price trend.
Positive Factors
Diversified lifecycle revenue model
CTOS’s multi-armed business model—sales, rental, parts/service, upfitting, and used-asset disposition—creates durable, complementary cash streams. This reduces cyclicality of new equipment demand, supports recurring revenue from rentals and service, and preserves aftermarket capture over the equipment lifecycle.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and gearing
Material leverage constrains financial flexibility and increases exposure to interest-rate and refinancing risk. High gearing limits the company’s capacity to absorb demand shocks or invest opportunistically, making sustained deleveraging essential to long-term stability and strategic optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified lifecycle revenue model
CTOS’s multi-armed business model—sales, rental, parts/service, upfitting, and used-asset disposition—creates durable, complementary cash streams. This reduces cyclicality of new equipment demand, supports recurring revenue from rentals and service, and preserves aftermarket capture over the equipment lifecycle.
Read all positive factors
Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.65B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)784.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.58
Revenue Growth7.39%
EPS Growth34.57%
CountryUS
Employees2,619
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.09
Shares Outstanding226,625,930
10 Day Avg. Volume748,621
30 Day Avg. Volume784,820
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.52
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.67
P/FCF Ratio-12.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.98
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.50Price Target Upside3.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.04B
Custom Truck One Source Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Custom Truck One Source, Inc. provides specialty equipment rental services to the electric utility transmission and distribution, telecommunications, rail, other infrastructure-related industries in North America. It operates through Equipment Ren...
How the Company Makes Money
CTOS generates revenue through multiple, complementary streams tied to specialty work equipment. (1) Equipment sales: the company sells new and used vocational trucks and specialty equipment; revenue is recognized at the point of sale, and sales c...
Custom Truck One Source Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Details revenue contributions from each business segment, revealing growth drivers and diversification of income sources.
Details revenue contributions from each business segment, revealing growth drivers and diversification of income sources.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCustom Truck One Source Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a predominantly positive operational and financial story: record full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA, strong rental fundamentals (high utilization, OEC growth, de-aged fleet), improving backlog and orders for TES, and constructive 2026 guidance with planned deleveraging and free cash flow generation. Notable challenges include Q4 TES revenue softness driven by timing and pricing pressure, a FY GAAP net loss (impacted by prior-year one-time gain), elevated but improving inventory and leverage levels, and sensitivity to macro and timing factors. Overall, the positive momentum in core rental KPIs, backlog growth, and clear plans for reduced capital intensity and deleveraging outweigh the near-term TES timing and inventory headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue and EBITDA
Q4 revenue of $528,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA of $121,000,000 (Q4 EBITDA up >18% YoY). Full-year 2025 record revenue of $1,944,000,000 (up 8% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $384,000,000 (up 13% YoY and ahead of midpoint guidance).
Negative Updates
TES Q4 Revenue Decline and Pricing Pressure
TES Q4 equipment sales declined ~8% YoY due to customers pulling forward purchases earlier in the year, atypical year-end delivery deferrals into 2026, and continued pricing pressure on certain truck sales.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue and EBITDA
Q4 revenue of $528,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA of $121,000,000 (Q4 EBITDA up >18% YoY). Full-year 2025 record revenue of $1,944,000,000 (up 8% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $384,000,000 (up 13% YoY and ahead of midpoint guidance).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided full‑year 2026 revenue of $2,005 million to $2,120 million and adjusted EBITDA of $410 million to $435 million (implying ~3%–9% revenue growth and ~7%–13% EBITDA growth vs. 2025), with segment targets of ERS $725–$760M, TES $1,125–$1,200M and APS $155–$160M. They expect net OEC on rent to grow mid‑single digits, a net rental fleet investment of ~ $150–$170M (down from >$250M in 2025), non‑rental CapEx of $40–$50M, lower maintenance CapEx, and >$50M of levered free cash flow; Q1 is expected to show mid‑to‑high single‑digit revenue growth and double‑digit EBITDA growth year‑over‑year. On the balance sheet, management plans to reduce net leverage to meaningfully below 4.0x by year‑end (current net leverage 4.3x on ~$1,650M net debt), noted ABL availability of $248M with >$200M additional potential, targets inventory below six months (expected to free ~$25–$50M of net working capital), and will recast reporting into two segments (SER and STEM) beginning Q1 2026.Custom Truck One Source Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
36
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.94B | 1.80B | 1.87B | 1.57B | 1.17B |
| Gross Profit | 367.36M | 343.43M | 410.09M | 340.39M | 165.65M |
| EBITDA | 409.76M | 380.66M | 414.78M | 359.12M | 104.84M |
| Net Income | -31.05M | -28.66M | 50.71M | 38.91M | -181.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.74B | 3.50B | 3.37B | 2.94B | 2.68B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.27M | 3.81M | 10.31M | 14.36M | 35.90M |
| Total Debt | 2.42B | 2.43B | 2.20B | 1.83B | 1.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.93B | 2.64B | 2.45B | 2.05B | 1.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 809.10M | 861.31M | 917.20M | 888.44M | 858.51M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -107.59M | -353.63M | -511.64M | -358.74M | -31.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 349.39M | 44.68M | -147.45M | -17.95M | 157.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -282.46M | -187.49M | -176.60M | -218.94M | -1.43B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -64.55M | 135.58M | 319.44M | 217.82M | 1.30B |
Custom Truck One Source Technical Analysis
Positive
7.26
Price Trends
6.73
Positive
6.40
Positive
6.15
Positive
Market Momentum
0.12
Negative
66.05
Neutral
88.01
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CTOS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.52, above the 50-day MA of 6.73, and above the 200-day MA of 6.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CTOS.
Custom Truck One Source Risk Analysis
Custom Truck One Source disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Custom Truck One Source reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Custom Truck One Source Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $2.81B | 12.96 | 13.21% | 1.79% | 4.77% | -35.44% | |
64 Neutral | $1.38B | 8.05 | 16.94% | 0.82% | 27.90% | 19.25% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $8.63B | 16.03 | 16.36% | 1.75% | 1.68% | 9.91% | |
51 Neutral | $3.37B | -64.81 | -5.35% | 1.44% | -3.64% | 867.62% | |
47 Neutral | $1.65B | -42.03 | -3.00% | ― | 7.39% | 34.57% | |
47 Neutral | $3.44B | 4,644.29 | 0.06% | 1.79% | 19.40% | -120.47% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source
7.26
3.85
112.90%
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Custom Truck One Source Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Custom Truck One Source Plans Segment Reporting Realignment Webinar
Neutral
Mar 25, 2026
Custom Truck One Source, Inc. is one of the largest North American providers of specialty equipment, parts, tools, accessories and related services to the electric utility transmission and distribution, telecommunications and rail markets. The com...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Custom Truck One Source Reports Record 2025 Revenue Growth
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
On March 10, 2026, Custom Truck One Source, Inc. reported record fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $528.2 million, up 1.4% year over year, and record full-year 2025 revenue of $1.94 billion, a 7.9% increase from 2024, while quarterly net income decli...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.