Herc Holdings (HRI)
NYSE:HRI
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Herc Holdings
(NYSE:HRI)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$99.00
▼(-4.90% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is held back primarily by the sharp deterioration shown in the latest annual financial snapshot (weaker earnings/margins and reduced cash-flow visibility) and very weak technicals (price far below major moving averages with bearish momentum). Valuation is also a major negative due to an extremely high P/E. Offsetting these is a relatively positive earnings-call outlook, with 2026 growth/EBITDA/free-cash-flow guidance and synergy-driven improvement plans, though leverage and execution risks remain meaningful.
Positive Factors
Acquisition and Integration Scale
The H&E acquisition and rapid integration (80% branch optimization, tech stack consolidation, expanded field regions) create durable scale, broader geographic coverage and cross‑sell channels. These structural gains support sustained revenue synergies and cost leverage as branches and sales teams normalize over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Elevated Pro‑forma Leverage
Near‑term leverage approaching 4x after the acquisition materially increases refinancing and covenant risk for a cyclical rental operator. A heavy debt burden reduces financial flexibility to absorb local demand shocks and requires sustained margin/cash‑flow improvement to reach target 2x–3x by end‑2027.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Acquisition and Integration Scale
The H&E acquisition and rapid integration (80% branch optimization, tech stack consolidation, expanded field regions) create durable scale, broader geographic coverage and cross‑sell channels. These structural gains support sustained revenue synergies and cost leverage as branches and sales teams normalize over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Herc Holdings (HRI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.35B
Dividend Yield1.79%
Average Volume (3M)585.29K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4644.3
Beta (1Y)1.61
Revenue Growth19.40%
EPS Growth-120.47%
CountryUS
Employees7,600
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRental & Leasing Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.07
Shares Outstanding33,370,260
10 Day Avg. Volume530,731
30 Day Avg. Volume585,292
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-46.64
Price to Book (P/B)2.38
Price to Sales (P/S)1.06
P/FCF Ratio-34.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.36
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.33
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.26
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$159.67Price Target Upside53.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)6.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.72B
Herc Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Herc Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipm...
How the Company Makes Money
Herc Holdings makes money primarily by renting equipment to customers for defined time periods and charging rental rates that vary by equipment type, rental duration, and service requirements. The largest revenue stream is equipment rental revenue...
Herc Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Herc Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a generally positive outlook driven by a large, transformational acquisition, meaningful integration progress, clear synergy targets (cost synergies ahead of plan; revenue synergy targets set), strong Q4 top‑line and adjusted EBITDA growth, healthy free cash flow generation, and a disciplined capital plan with 2026 guidance for profitable growth. Near‑term challenges include margin pressure from elevated used equipment sales, seasonality and pro forma utilization weakness in Q1, elevated pro forma leverage (3.95x), and execution risk on capturing revenue synergies—all acknowledged and being actively managed. Overall, the positives (integration execution, synergy progress, digital/telemetry adoption, cash flow and guidance) outweigh the short‑term headwinds.Positive Updates
Transformational Acquisition and Integration Progress
Completed largest industry acquisition (H&E) in June 2025 and executed rapid integration actions: expanded field operating structure to 10 U.S. regions, completed sales territory optimization, and transitioned acquired branches to Herc’s technology stack. Branch optimization is 80% complete and expected to finish next month; plan increases stand‑alone or co‑located specialty branches by ~25% and adds 50+ specialty locations.
Negative Updates
Margin Pressure from Used Equipment Sales and Acquired Business Mix
Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin was impacted by a 53% increase in used equipment sales (lower margin than rental). REBITDA margin was negatively affected by the lower‑margin acquired business mix.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transformational Acquisition and Integration Progress
Completed largest industry acquisition (H&E) in June 2025 and executed rapid integration actions: expanded field operating structure to 10 U.S. regions, completed sales territory optimization, and transitioned acquired branches to Herc’s technology stack. Branch optimization is 80% complete and expected to finish next month; plan increases stand‑alone or co‑located specialty branches by ~25% and adds 50+ specialty locations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s 2026 guidance calls for roughly $950,000,000 of gross CapEx at the midpoint (net CapEx ≈ $650,000,000 assuming materially lower dispositions), targeting rental revenue growth of 13%–17% and adjusted EBITDA of $2.0–$2.1 billion (about 10%–16% YoY growth), with free cash flow of $400–$600 million. They expect incremental revenue synergies of ~$100–$120 million in 2026 (part of a $390 million gross revenue‑synergy target through 2028) and $125 million of cost synergies to be realized in 2026, which—together with improved fleet productivity—should drive REBITDA margin improvement; pro forma leverage is ~3.95x today with a goal to return to the top of the 2.0x–3.0x target range by year‑end 2027. For context, 2025 results cited include $521,000,000 of free cash flow net of transaction costs, Q4 disposals of $342,000,000 with realized proceeds ~44% of OEC, full‑year disposals +67% YoY, fleet expenditures ~22% higher vs. 2H‑2024, branch optimization 80% complete (targeted finish next month) and a plan to increase stand‑alone/co‑located branches by ~25%.Herc Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.38B | 3.57B | 3.28B | 2.74B | 2.07B |
| Gross Profit | 1.23B | 1.35B | 1.22B | 1.06B | 756.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.75B | 870.00M | 775.00M | 654.00M | 446.00M |
| Net Income | 1.00M | 211.00M | 347.00M | 330.00M | 224.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 13.78B | 7.88B | 7.06B | 5.96B | 4.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 52.00M | 83.00M | 71.00M | 53.50M | 35.10M |
| Total Debt | 11.16B | 5.07B | 4.48B | 3.62B | 2.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.83B | 6.48B | 5.79B | 4.85B | 3.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.95B | 1.40B | 1.27B | 1.11B | 976.90M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -135.00M | 16.00M | -390.00M | -355.00M | 102.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.12B | 1.23B | 1.09B | 917.00M | 743.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.83B | -1.51B | -1.58B | -1.68B | -960.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.81B | 299.00M | 512.00M | 785.00M | 220.00M |
Herc Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
104.10
Price Trends
126.01
Negative
138.27
Negative
133.15
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.41
Negative
45.46
Neutral
85.59
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HRI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 104.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 100.67, below the 50-day MA of 126.01, and below the 200-day MA of 133.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.59 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HRI.
Herc Holdings Risk Analysis
Herc Holdings disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Herc Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Herc Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $48.21B | 20.90 | 27.87% | 0.88% | 6.73% | 1.45% | |
70 Outperform | $2.83B | 12.96 | 13.21% | 1.79% | 4.77% | -35.44% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $8.31B | 16.03 | 16.36% | 1.75% | 1.68% | 9.91% | |
51 Neutral | $3.45B | -64.81 | -5.35% | 1.44% | -3.64% | 867.62% | |
50 Neutral | $13.98B | -5.08 | 32.05% | ― | -1.22% | -639.34% | |
47 Neutral | $3.35B | 4,644.29 | 0.06% | 1.79% | 19.40% | -120.47% |
* Industrials Sector Average
HRI
Herc Holdings
104.10
-11.16
-9.68%
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MGRC
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R
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URI
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777.49
191.16
32.60%
Herc Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Herc Holdings Announces Upcoming Board Transition Without Dispute
Neutral
Jan 30, 2026
On January 28, 2026, Herc Holdings Inc. announced that board member John M. Engquist informed the company he would not stand for re-election to the Board of Directors at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. The company stated that EngquistR...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.