Herc Holdings (HRI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.66B
• Dividend Yield: 1.79%
• Average Volume (3M): 605.95K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4368.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.60
• Revenue Growth: 19.40%
• EPS Growth: -120.47%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,600
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Rental & Leasing Services
• EPS (TTM): 2.07
• Shares Outstanding: 33,370,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 738,733
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 605,945
• PEG Ratio: -46.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.38
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.06
• P/FCF Ratio: -34.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.38
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.34
• 1Y Price Target: $182.40
• Price Target Upside: 30.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.45
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.81B

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $180.00 ▲(28.76% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is held back primarily by mixed financial performance: strong results through 2024 but a sharp deterioration and cash-flow visibility concerns in the latest 2025 annual snapshot, plus a history of high leverage. Technicals are a meaningful positive with the stock trading above key moving averages and supportive momentum. Guidance from the latest earnings call is constructive (growth, EBITDA and FCF targets tied to integration/synergies), but elevated leverage and execution risks temper the upside. Valuation is less supportive due to the negative P/E, with only modest help from the dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Scale from Strategic Acquisition

The H&E acquisition materially expands Herc's branch network, specialty footprint and market scale, creating durable competitive advantages. Faster branch consolidation and territory optimization improve network density, enable pricing and service leverage, and underpin multi-year revenue and margin upside as synergies are realized.

Sustained Revenue Growth and Clear 2026 Guidance

Management's multi-metric guidance signals confidence in integration-driven growth and cash generation. Persistent rental demand, specialty expansion and mega-project participation support above-market top-line trajectories, giving a multi-quarter runway for improved profitability and increased free cash flow to fund capex and deleveraging.

Digital, Telematics and Productivity Gains

Rapid digital adoption and telematics materially improve utilization, reduce downtime and enable data-driven pricing and cross-selling. These structural productivity gains raise long-term fleet ROI, support margin sustainability, and lower incremental operating cost per rental, enhancing durable cash conversion as the platform scales.

Negative Factors

Elevated Pro Forma Leverage

High leverage heightens financial risk for a cyclical rental business and curtails strategic flexibility. Herc must generate sustained EBITDA and FCF to meet de‑leveraging targets; any integration delays or market softness could prolong elevated interest costs and constrain reinvestment or return of capital for multiple quarters.

Volatile Free Cash Flow and Reporting Issues

Inconsistent FCF undermines the reliability of cash available for debt reduction and fleet reinvestment. The zeroed 2025 cash items raise data‑quality or visibility concerns, making forecasting and covenant planning harder; for a capital‑intensive rental firm, dependable cash conversion is essential for sustainable deleveraging.

Margin Pressure and Execution Risk on Synergies

A higher share of lower‑margin used equipment sales and an acquired business mix compress margins, reducing EBITDA flow‑through. Realizing revenue synergies depends on specialty branch rollouts, salesforce assimilation and local market recovery; execution shortfalls would delay margin recovery and slow the path to targeted leverage.

Herc Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Herc Holdings Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment. The company also provides ProSolutions, an industry specific solution-based services, which include power generation, climate control, remediation and restoration, pump, trench shoring, and studio and production equipment; and ProContractor professional grade tools. In addition, it offers various services, including repair, maintenance, equipment management, and safety training; and equipment re-rental and on-site support services, as well as ancillary services, such as equipment transport, rental protection, cleaning, refueling, and labor. Further, the company sells used equipment and contractor supplies, such as construction consumables, tools, small equipment, and safety supplies. It serves non-residential and residential construction, specialty trade, restoration, remediation and environment, and facility maintenance contractors; industrial manufacturing industries, including automotive and aerospace, power, metals and mining, agriculture, pulp, paper and wood, food and beverage, and refineries and petrochemical industries; infrastructure and government sectors; and commercial facilities, hospitality, healthcare, recreation, entertainment production, and special event management customers. The company sells its products through its sales team and industry catalogs, as well as through participation and sponsorship of industry events, trade shows, and Internet. Herc Holdings Inc. was founded in 1965 and is based in Bonita Springs, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Herc Holdings generates revenue primarily through the rental of equipment to a wide range of customers. The company's core revenue streams include rental income from its extensive fleet of equipment, which is often leased on a short-term or long-term basis. Additionally, Herc earns money from the sale of new and used equipment, parts, and accessories, as well as through maintenance and repair services provided to its customers. By leveraging a network of branch locations, Herc enhances customer proximity and service efficiency, contributing to customer retention and increased rental transactions. Significant partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers also enable the company to maintain a modern and diverse fleet, ensuring it can meet the evolving needs of its customer base. Seasonality in construction and infrastructure projects also plays a role in revenue fluctuations, impacting rental demand during peak periods.

Herc Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth and solid profitability through 2024, but the latest 2025 annual snapshot shows an abrupt earnings/margin drop (near-breakeven net income and much weaker EBITDA margin) alongside volatile/often negative free cash flow and cash-flow visibility concerns (2025 cash flow reported as zero). Balance-sheet leverage was high in 2021–2024, and while 2025 shows improved debt-to-equity, profitability/ROE deterioration increases uncertainty.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly from 2021–2024 (including ~20% in 2023), and profitability through 2024 was solid with operating profitability around the low‑20% range and net margins near ~6–12%. However, the latest 2025 annual figures show an abrupt collapse in earnings (net income near breakeven and a much lower EBITDA margin ~5%), which materially weakens the consistency and quality of the earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

Leverage was high in 2021–2024 (debt-to-equity roughly ~2.5–3.6x), which is a meaningful risk for a cyclical rental/leasing business. The 2025 annual balance sheet shows sharply lower reported debt-to-equity (~0.8x) and higher equity, but returns on equity also fell to near zero alongside the earnings drop—suggesting the balance sheet looks improved while profitability deteriorated.

Cash Flow

Operating cash generation was strong in 2021–2024 and generally exceeded net income by a wide margin, supporting earnings quality. That said, free cash flow has been volatile and often negative (notably 2022–2023), and even in 2024 free cash flow was only marginally positive relative to earnings. The 2025 annual cash flow line items are reported as zero with free cash flow down -100%, which raises data-quality/visibility concerns and further pressures the score.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.38B	3.57B	3.28B	2.74B	2.07B
Gross Profit	1.23B	1.35B	1.22B	1.06B	756.00M
EBITDA	1.75B	870.00M	775.00M	654.00M	446.00M
Net Income	1.00M	211.00M	347.00M	330.00M	224.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.78B	7.88B	7.06B	5.96B	4.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	52.00M	83.00M	71.00M	53.50M	35.10M
Total Debt	11.16B	5.07B	4.48B	3.62B	2.47B
Total Liabilities	11.83B	6.48B	5.79B	4.85B	3.51B
Stockholders Equity	1.95B	1.40B	1.27B	1.11B	976.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-135.00M	16.00M	-390.00M	-355.00M	102.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.12B	1.23B	1.09B	917.00M	743.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.83B	-1.51B	-1.58B	-1.68B	-960.00M
Financing Cash Flow	3.81B	299.00M	512.00M	785.00M	220.00M

Herc Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 139.79
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HRI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 139.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 158.38, below the 50-day MA of 157.80, and above the 200-day MA of 135.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.87 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HRI.

Herc Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
URI	71 Outperform	$52.92B	21.76	28.36%	0.88%	6.73%	1.45%
MGRC	70 Outperform	$2.73B	17.48	13.24%	1.79%	4.77%	-35.44%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
R	61 Neutral	$8.74B	18.67	16.15%	1.75%	1.68%	9.91%
HRI	58 Neutral	$4.66B	4,368.44	0.06%	1.79%	19.40%	-120.47%
WSC	51 Neutral	$3.91B	―	-5.65%	1.44%	-3.64%	867.62%
CAR	44 Neutral	$3.43B	-3.84	―	―	-1.22%	-639.34%

Herc Holdings Corporate Events

Herc Holdings Announces Upcoming Board Transition Without Dispute

On January 28, 2026, Herc Holdings Inc. announced that board member John M. Engquist informed the company he would not stand for re-election to the Board of Directors at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. The company stated that Engquist’s decision was not the result of any disagreement with Herc Holdings regarding its operations, policies, or practices, suggesting the board transition is expected to be orderly and without underlying governance dispute signals for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HRI) stock is a Hold with a $163.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Herc Holdings stock, see the HRI Stock Forecast page.

Herc Holdings Issues $600M Senior Unsecured Notes

On December 16, 2025, Herc Holdings Inc. issued $600 million each of 5.750% senior unsecured notes due 2031 and 6.000% senior unsecured notes due 2034. The proceeds, along with other borrowings, were used to redeem the company’s outstanding 5.50% Senior Notes due 2027. The new notes are senior unsecured obligations and are guaranteed by Herc’s domestic subsidiaries. Additionally, Herc Holdings amended its credit agreement, reducing interest rate margins, while maintaining the total loans outstanding at $750 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (HRI) stock is a Buy with a $170.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Herc Holdings stock, see the HRI Stock Forecast page.

Herc Holdings Announces $1.2 Billion Notes Pricing

On December 2, 2025, Herc Holdings Inc. announced the pricing of $1.2 billion in senior unsecured notes, divided equally between notes due in 2031 and 2034, with interest rates of 5.750% and 6.000% respectively. The proceeds from this offering, expected to close on December 16, 2025, will be used to redeem the company’s existing $1.2 billion 5.50% senior notes due 2027, indicating a strategic move to manage its debt obligations and potentially improve its financial positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (HRI) stock is a Hold with a $137.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Herc Holdings stock, see the HRI Stock Forecast page.

Herc Holdings Announces $1.2 Billion Notes Offering

On December 2, 2025, Herc Holdings Inc. announced a proposed private offering of $1,200 million in senior unsecured notes, intended to redeem the company’s existing 5.50% Senior Notes due 2027. This strategic financial maneuver aims to optimize the company’s debt structure and is expected to impact its financial operations positively. The notes will be sold under Rule 144A and Regulation S of the Securities Act of 1933, and are not registered under the Act, indicating a targeted approach towards qualified institutional buyers.

The most recent analyst rating on (HRI) stock is a Hold with a $137.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Herc Holdings stock, see the HRI Stock Forecast page.

Herc Holdings Plans Redemption of Senior Notes

On December 1, 2025, Herc Holdings Inc. announced its intention to redeem all $1,200 million of its outstanding 5.50% Senior Notes due 2027. This redemption is contingent upon securing satisfactory financing to cover the redemption price, which is set for December 16, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (HRI) stock is a Hold with a $137.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Herc Holdings stock, see the HRI Stock Forecast page.

Herc Holdings Announces New President Appointment

On November 19, 2025, Herc Holdings Inc. announced that Aaron Birnbaum, who has been the Chief Operating Officer since 2020, will become the company’s President effective January 1, 2026, while retaining his current responsibilities. Larry Silber will continue as the Chief Executive Officer. Birnbaum’s compensation package includes a base salary of $775,000, a target annual incentive cash bonus, and a long-term equity incentive. Additionally, Patrick S. Shannon and John A. Olin were elected as independent directors to the Board, effective January 1, 2026, and will serve on the Audit Committee. Both will participate in the non-employee director compensation program and enter into Indemnification Agreements with the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (HRI) stock is a Hold with a $137.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Herc Holdings stock, see the HRI Stock Forecast page.