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Quad/Graphics, Inc. Class A (QUAD)
NYSE:QUAD

Quad/Graphics (QUAD) AI Stock Analysis

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Quad/Graphics

(NYSE:QUAD)

Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▼(-2.14%Downside)
Quad/Graphics faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and high leverage impacting stability. Technical indicators show a neutral to bearish trend. While recent strategic investments and governance changes offer some positive aspects, the overall outlook is hindered by profitability issues and economic uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Company Strategy
Quad has shifted its revenue mix towards services with favorable long-term growth prospects, including an increase in targeted print offerings and growth in Latin American operations.
Earnings
Q1/25 revenue of $629.4 million exceeded estimates, indicating better-than-expected performance.
Financial Performance
Q1/25 adjusted EPS of $0.20 doubled from the year-ago quarter, supported by lower depreciation & amortization expenses and a decline in interest expense due to debt reduction efforts.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow
Quad reported a free cash outflow of $(100.3) million for Q1/25, larger than the previous year, due to accelerated purchases of paper in advance of potential tariffs.
Market Challenges
The launch of In-Store Connect marked Quad’s entry into the large and growing Retail Media Networks space, enabling smaller store chains to compete more effectively with large national chains.
Revenue Decline
Q4/24 revenue declined -10.1% YOY to $708.4 million, driven by lower paper sales and lower print volumes, including the impact from client mix and increased gravure volume.

Quad/Graphics (QUAD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Quad/Graphics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionQuad/Graphics, Inc. provides marketing solutions worldwide. The company operates through United States Print and Related Services, and International segments. It offers printing services, such as retail inserts, publications, catalogs, special interest publications, journals, direct mail, directories, in-store marketing and promotion, packaging, newspapers, custom print products, and other commercial and specialty printed products; and paper procurement services. The company also provides marketing and other services, including consumer insights, audience targeting, personalization, media planning and placement, process optimization, campaign planning and creation, pre-media production, videography, photography, digital and print execution, and logistics, as well as manufactures ink. It serves blue chip companies that operate in various industries, and serve businesses and consumers comprising retailers, publishers, and direct marketers. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Sussex, Wisconsin.
How the Company Makes MoneyQuad/Graphics makes money primarily through its comprehensive suite of marketing and printing services. The company generates revenue by providing integrated marketing solutions that include direct marketing, in-store marketing, packaging, and logistics services. A significant portion of its earnings comes from long-term contracts with retailers, publishers, and major corporations who rely on Quad's capabilities to produce and distribute promotional materials and publications. Additionally, Quad/Graphics monetizes its data-driven marketing services, helping clients optimize their marketing campaigns and reach target audiences effectively. Key partnerships with leading brands and strategic investments in technology and innovation also play a crucial role in enhancing its service offerings and expanding its market reach.

Quad/Graphics Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 9.98%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook for Quad, with strategic investments and expansions being overshadowed by declines in net sales and challenges from tariffs and postal rate increases. While there are positive developments in AI and new client acquisitions, economic uncertainties pose significant risks.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Investments in AI and Data Solutions
Quad has partnered with Google Cloud to leverage AI optimization capabilities and large language models, creating AI-driven solutions that enhance their data stack for marketing personalization at scale.
In-Store Connect Expansion
Quad has expanded its In-Store Connect network to over 45 stores with 30 more planned, adding two new retailers in the West and Midwest, increasing consumer engagement opportunities.
Successful Direct Mail Growth
Direct mail volume was up 14% in the quarter, with a 6% increase in sales, driven by new client wins across multiple offerings in the MX experience.
Strong Cash Position and Debt Management
Quad's net debt decreased by $81 million from March 31, 2024, to March 31, 2025, with a total available liquidity of $209 million.
Negative Updates
Net Sales Decline
Net sales were $629 million, a decrease of 2% compared to the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to lower paper, logistics, and agency solution sales.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow was negative $100 million in the first quarter of 2025, compared to negative $70 million in the first quarter of 2024, due in part to proactive inventory purchases.
Impact of Tariffs and Postal Rate Increases
Quad faces challenges from potential tariffs and a 10% postal rate increase in July, which could impact client demand and marketing costs.
Company Guidance
During Quad's First Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, projecting organic net sales to decline between 2% and 6% compared to 2024, excluding the impact of divested European operations. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to range from $180 million to $220 million, with a mid-point of $200 million. The company anticipates free cash flow to be between $40 million and $60 million, with capital expenditures ranging from $65 million to $75 million. Quad also aims to reduce its net debt leverage ratio to approximately 1.5 times by the end of 2025. Despite challenges such as potential tariff impacts and recessionary pressures, Quad remains committed to achieving its financial goals, supported by innovative solutions like Household Fusion and strategic investments in AI-driven data capabilities.

Quad/Graphics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Quad/Graphics presents a challenging financial picture with declining revenue and negative net profit margins. The balance sheet indicates high financial risk due to significant leverage. Cash flow generation is a positive aspect, highlighting operational cash efficiency, but profitability issues persist.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Quad/Graphics shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has experienced a declining revenue trend with a decrease in total revenue over recent years. Gross profit margin for TTM stands at approximately 39.65%, which is relatively strong for the industry. However, net profit margins remain negative, reflecting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also low, indicating operational inefficiencies. The company needs to address its cost structure and improve profitability metrics.
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects significant leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio that indicates high financial risk. TTM data shows a debt-to-equity ratio above 6.31, suggesting a heavy reliance on debt financing. Return on equity remains negative due to net losses, indicating challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is low at about 7%, reflecting a limited equity cushion. Overall, the balance sheet suggests a need for better capital management to enhance financial stability.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis highlights some strengths, with positive operating cash flow in TTM and consistent free cash flow generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating effective cash conversion from operations. However, free cash flow growth has been inconsistent, and the free cash flow to net income ratio reflects ongoing profitability challenges. The company demonstrates an ability to generate cash but must address profitability to support long-term growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.65B2.67B2.96B3.22B2.96B2.93B
Gross Profit529.80M580.00M576.50M598.20M570.50M594.80M
EBITDA143.30M122.50M150.60M252.20M245.60M150.40M
Net Income-17.00M-50.90M-55.40M9.30M37.80M-106.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.25B1.30B1.51B1.70B1.89B1.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments8.10M29.20M52.90M25.20M179.90M55.20M
Total Debt552.00M464.60M625.30M685.10M931.60M1.01B
Total Liabilities1.16B1.25B1.39B1.53B1.75B1.84B
Stockholders Equity87.40M49.90M119.50M172.90M136.80M84.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow25.50M55.70M76.80M94.30M86.50M129.20M
Operating Cash Flow76.10M112.90M147.60M154.60M136.50M190.20M
Investing Cash Flow14.50M12.70M-46.40M-60.50M129.40M9.70M
Financing Cash Flow-94.20M-149.10M-73.60M-248.70M-140.90M-223.60M

Quad/Graphics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price5.62
Price Trends
50DMA
5.50
Positive
100DMA
5.57
Positive
200DMA
5.97
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Negative
RSI
51.74
Neutral
STOCH
74.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For QUAD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.52, above the 50-day MA of 5.50, and below the 200-day MA of 5.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for QUAD.

Quad/Graphics Risk Analysis

Quad/Graphics disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Quad/Graphics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Quad/Graphics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (53)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
MEMEC
73
Outperform
$332.08M15.019.40%-8.42%164.82%
68
Neutral
$439.02M972.090.18%1.59%-4.08%
68
Neutral
$285.69M17.588.09%7.18%186.98%
64
Neutral
$331.42M27.924.58%-9.91%-25.58%
53
Neutral
kr678.01M8.52-45.18%10.07%-138.83%
51
Neutral
$284.44M-19.25%5.34%-7.00%71.30%
$261.63M
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
QUAD
Quad/Graphics
5.62
<0.01
0.18%
SHYF
Shyft Group
12.54
2.32
22.70%
RLGT
Radiant Logistics
6.19
0.44
7.65%
BBCP
Concrete Pumping Holdings
6.46
0.66
11.38%
MEC
Mayville Engineering Company
16.21
-1.14
-6.57%
AMBI
Ambipar Emergency Response
4.92
1.16
30.85%

Quad/Graphics Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Quad/Graphics Shareholders Approve Governance Changes
Positive
May 23, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Quad/Graphics, Inc. held its annual meeting of shareholders, where key decisions were made regarding the company’s governance and incentive plans. The Board of Directors was reduced from ten to nine members, and all nine directors were elected for a one-year term. Additionally, an amendment to the 2020 Omnibus Incentive Plan was approved by the shareholders, reflecting strong support for the company’s strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (QUAD) stock is a Buy with a $8.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Quad/Graphics stock, see the QUAD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 25, 2025