Target Hospitality (TH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $932.43M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 437.22K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: -26.65%
• EPS Growth: -110.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 770
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Specialty Business Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 100,153,206
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 323,886
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 437,218
• PEG Ratio: 0.14
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.49
• P/FCF Ratio: 113.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.90
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.46
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 21.15
• 1Y Price Target: $11.00
• Price Target Upside: 18.15% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.24
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $285.32M

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(7.41% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

The score is anchored by a strong balance sheet and a bullish earnings-call setup (large contracted awards, clear 2026 ramp guidance, solid liquidity), offset by currently weak profitability (TTM losses and margin pressure) and technically overbought conditions that raise near-term volatility risk.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Zero net debt and ~ $183M liquidity materially reduce financing and solvency risk, enabling the company to fund planned 2026 capex and absorb working-capital swings. This balance-sheet flexibility supports durable execution of multiyear contracts without near-term external financing.

Contract Backlog and Pipeline

A >$740M backlog and a 20,000+ bed pipeline provide multi-period revenue visibility and reduce customer-concentration timing risk. Large multiyear commitments (notably >$495M in WHS) underpin a predictable ramp to higher recurring services revenue as construction phases convert to service contracts.

Guided Revenue and EBITDA Ramp

Management's explicit 2026 guidance, supported by announced contracts and WHS mix shift, outlines a clear, achievable path to substantially higher revenue and adjusted EBITDA. This forward guidance reflects structural margin improvement as the business transitions from construction to steadier, higher-margin services.

Negative Factors

Deteriorated Profitability

The swing to TTM net losses and compressed margins signals structural profit pressure from pricing, mix or cost dynamics. Sustained recovery will require consistent mix shift to higher-margin WHS/data-center services and disciplined cost control to convert backlog into durable profitability.

Limited Spare Inventory

Only ~3k–4k spare beds against a >20k-bed pipeline risks delayed deployments or the need to buy/lease additional capacity. Rapid conversion would force incremental capex or secondary-market purchases, raising costs and potentially delaying margin improvement and contract economics.

Current EBITDA and Corporate Spend

Modest recent adjusted EBITDA (~$7M) alongside ~ $18M of corporate expense highlights a structural drag on near-term profitability. Until scale benefits materialize and corporate spend normalizes relative to revenue, margin recovery may be constrained despite strong contract wins.

Target Hospitality Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Target Hospitality Corp. operates as a specialty rental and hospitality services company in North America. The company operates through four segments: Hospitality & Facilities Services - South, Hospitality & Facilities Services - Midwest, Government, and TCPL Keystone. It owns a network of specialty rental accommodation units with approximately 15,528 beds across 27 communities, which include 26 owned and 1 leased; and operates 1 community not owned or leased by the company. Target Hospitality Corp. also provides catering and food, maintenance, housekeeping, grounds-keeping, security, health and recreation, workforce community management, concierge, and laundry services. It serves the U.S. government, government contractors, investment grade natural resource development companies, and energy infrastructure companies. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Target Hospitality primarily makes money by providing contracted lodging and hospitality services through workforce housing communities and related site-support offerings. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Lodging/accommodation fees: Revenue is earned by housing individuals in the company’s modular or community-style facilities, commonly structured as per-person/per-night (or per-bed/per-day) charges or fixed minimum/availability commitments under contract. (2) Food service and hospitality services: The company generates additional revenue by providing on-site meals and dining operations, often bundled with lodging or billed based on service levels and volumes specified in customer agreements. (3) Facility and site services: Revenue is also generated from ancillary services such as housekeeping, laundry, maintenance, security, transportation coordination, and other camp/community management services, frequently packaged into comprehensive service contracts. (4) Contract structure and utilization: Earnings are driven by contract terms (e.g., duration, minimum occupancy/throughput commitments, pricing escalators, and pass-through treatment for certain costs) and by utilization/occupancy levels at the company’s communities. Significant factors that contribute to revenue include securing multi-year agreements with large customers, maintaining high occupancy at existing communities, and expanding capacity or services where customer demand supports it. Specific customer names, contract pricing, and segment-level contribution details are null if not publicly specified in the prompt.

Target Hospitality Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: the income statement is weak with a swing to TTM losses and compressed margins (Income Statement Score 44), but the balance sheet is a strength with zero debt and improved solvency (Balance Sheet Score 82). Cash flow remains positive though free cash flow declined versus last year (Cash Flow Score 63).

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with net losses and a much lower gross margin versus 2023–2024. While revenue shows a large rebound in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), the earnings profile swung from strong profitability in 2022–2024 to losses, suggesting either cost pressure, pricing/mix changes, or one-time impacts. The multi-year record shows the business can be highly profitable (notably 2022–2023), but current run-rate performance is weak and more volatile.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet appears meaningfully de-risked: total debt is shown as zero in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and leverage has improved substantially versus 2020–2022 when debt was high relative to equity. Equity remains sizable relative to total assets, providing a stronger cushion. The key offset is that returns on equity are negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) due to net losses, so while solvency looks strong, profitability on the capital base is currently pressured.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a relative bright spot in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive, indicating the business is still producing cash despite net losses. However, free cash flow dropped materially versus the prior year, pointing to weaker underlying cash profitability and/or higher reinvestment needs. Overall, cash flow quality is decent (cash flow remains supportive), but the downtrend in free cash flow is a clear near-term concern.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	320.63M	386.27M	563.61M	501.99M	291.34M
Gross Profit	26.45M	178.18M	313.32M	247.13M	101.35M
EBITDA	41.33M	125.10M	332.62M	224.29M	102.21M
Net Income	-37.12M	71.27M	173.70M	73.94M	-4.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	530.21M	725.77M	694.35M	771.73M	513.39M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.35M	190.67M	103.93M	181.67M	23.41M
Total Debt	10.70M	209.65M	200.83M	354.69M	331.64M
Total Liabilities	141.15M	304.68M	317.05M	570.88M	416.12M
Stockholders Equity	389.26M	421.08M	377.31M	200.85M	97.27M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	7.05M	121.43M	88.38M	164.77M	69.11M
Operating Cash Flow	74.09M	151.68M	156.80M	305.61M	104.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-67.79M	-28.84M	-68.18M	-140.23M	-35.91M
Financing Cash Flow	-188.64M	-36.06M	-166.37M	-7.10M	-52.27M

Target Hospitality Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.31
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.69, above the 50-day MA of 7.60, and above the 200-day MA of 7.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.26 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TH.

Target Hospitality Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TH	65 Neutral	$932.43M	-21.47	-2.36%	―	-26.65%	-110.98%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
PRSU	61 Neutral	$1.02B	41.90	-24.71%	―	-68.48%	2198.47%
CVEO	56 Neutral	$308.58M	-14.41	-12.34%	4.25%	-10.51%	-247.97%

Target Hospitality Corporate Events

Target Hospitality Extends Executive PSU Metrics and Updates Outlook

On March 8, 2026, Target Hospitality’s board compensation committee approved a second amendment to its Executive Performance Stock Unit Agreement, extending the performance period for the diversification EBITDA metric tied to 2023 performance stock units from February 28, 2026, to February 28, 2027. This follows a prior January 25, 2026 change that lengthened the total shareholder return measurement period to December 31, 2026, effectively reissuing the PSUs while keeping other material terms largely unchanged and reinforcing long-term performance alignment for key executives.

On March 11, 2026, the company also posted an updated investor presentation on its website, providing the market with refreshed materials on its strategy and outlook. Together, the compensation changes and new presentation signal continued emphasis on long-horizon metrics and investor communication, with implications for executive incentives and how investors may evaluate management’s performance over an extended timeframe.

The most recent analyst rating on (TH) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Target Hospitality stock, see the TH Stock Forecast page.

Target Hospitality Adopts New Performance-Based Executive Equity Plan

On February 25, 2026, Target Hospitality’s board approved new forms of executive restricted stock unit and performance stock unit agreements under its 2019 Incentive Plan, aligning future stock-based awards for senior leaders with updated structures tied to company performance. The revised PSU framework splits vesting equally between total shareholder return and Adjusted EBITDA metrics over defined performance periods, with payouts ranging from 0% to 200% of target based on results.

On the same date, the compensation committee granted sizable PSU awards to three top executives: 400,000 units to Executive Vice President Operations and Chief Commercial Officer Troy Schrenk, 300,000 units to Executive Vice President Strategy & Corporate Development Brendan Dowhaniuk, and 175,000 units to Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary Heidi Lewis. These grants, structured similarly to prior awards for other senior leaders, underscore the company’s emphasis on performance-linked equity compensation as a tool to motivate, retain, and further align management incentives with shareholder outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (TH) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Target Hospitality stock, see the TH Stock Forecast page.

Target Hospitality Extends Executive Performance Stock Unit Period

On January 25, 2026, Target Hospitality’s board compensation committee amended an existing Executive Performance Stock Unit Agreement covering performance stock units granted on March 1, 2023 to certain employees, including current named executive officers. The change, which extends the total shareholder return performance period by one year to December 31, 2026 while retaining substantially similar material terms, is intended to preserve the original pay-for-performance design and alignment with shareholders after a 2024 unsolicited take‑private proposal disrupted management’s ability to meet the original performance metrics, effectively reissuing the 2023 awards under updated timing conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TH) stock is a Hold with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Target Hospitality stock, see the TH Stock Forecast page.

Target Hospitality Appoints Cyril Hahamski Chief Accounting Officer

On January 12, 2026, Target Hospitality’s board appointed veteran finance executive Cyril J. Hahamski as Chief Accounting Officer, with Chief Financial Officer Jason Vlacich relinquishing his additional Chief Accounting Officer duties but remaining CFO. Hahamski brings more than 25 years of experience spanning public accounting and senior controllership roles at Anew Climate, ALS Limited and Buckeye Partners, and will oversee Target’s accounting operations, external reporting, internal controls and management reporting under an employment agreement running initially through December 31, 2027 that includes equity-based pay options and change-in-control protections. The move is designed to bolster Target’s internal financial and reporting capabilities as it pursues a robust pipeline of growth opportunities, signaling a further professionalization of its finance function that may support execution of its strategic expansion plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (TH) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Target Hospitality stock, see the TH Stock Forecast page.

Target Hospitality Amends Credit Facility to Support Growth

On December 23, 2025, Arrow Bidco, LLC and other Target Hospitality subsidiaries executed a sixth amendment to their existing asset-based lending credit agreement with a syndicate of lenders led by Bank of America, N.A., adjusting the Consolidated Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio covenant applicable in calendar year 2026. The revision is intended to give Target Hospitality greater flexibility in the timing of capital expenditures for planned growth projects during 2026, and the company reported that it remained in compliance with all financial covenants under the credit facility as of the date of the amendment, suggesting continued lender support and financial capacity to pursue its expansion plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (TH) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Target Hospitality stock, see the TH Stock Forecast page.