Restaurant Brands International (QSR) AI Stock Analysis

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Restaurant Brands International

(NYSE:QSR)

Select Model

Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:75Outperform

Price Target:

$81.00

▲(14.29% Upside)

Restaurant Brands International's strong earnings call performance and positive technical indicators are the most significant factors driving the score. Financial performance shows operational efficiency but highlights profitability challenges. Valuation concerns are mitigated by a solid dividend yield. The strategic joint venture in China supports long-term growth prospects.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth across key segments indicates strong market demand and effective strategic initiatives, supporting long-term expansion.

Strategic Joint Venture

The joint venture in China is a strategic move to double Burger King's presence, aligning with long-term growth strategies and market expansion.

Cash Flow Management

Strong free cash flow generation and shareholder returns indicate robust financial management and sustainability of operations.

Negative Factors

Profit Margin Decline

Significant decline in profit margins suggests increased cost pressures, which could challenge profitability and operational efficiency.

Popeyes U.S. Underperformance

Underperformance at Popeyes U.S. indicates potential brand-specific challenges, affecting overall growth and market competitiveness.

Elevated Beef Costs

Rising beef costs impact margins and could strain profitability if cost management strategies are not effectively implemented.

Restaurant Brands International (QSR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$32.18B

Dividend Yield3.44%

Average Volume (3M)2.70M

Price to Earnings (P/E)25.2

Beta (1Y)0.29

Revenue Growth16.82%

EPS Growth-29.91%

CountryUS

Employees37,600

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustryRestaurants

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.03

Shares Outstanding327,812,070

10 Day Avg. Volume2,345,768

30 Day Avg. Volume2,702,879

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-1.28

Price to Book (P/B)6.69

Price to Sales (P/S)2.47

P/FCF Ratio15.97

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.42

Enterprise Value/Revenue4.94

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.00

Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.97

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$77.29

Price Target Upside9.06% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering18

EPS Forecast (FY)3.68

Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.37B

Restaurant Brands International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRestaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) is one of the world's largest quick-service restaurant companies, headquartered in Toronto, Canada. It operates a diverse portfolio of well-known brands, including Tim Hortons, Burger King, and Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen. The company focuses on providing high-quality food and exceptional customer service across its global network of franchised and company-owned restaurants. Through innovative menu offerings and strategic marketing initiatives, Restaurant Brands International aims to enhance its presence in the fast-food market and cater to evolving consumer preferences.

How the Company Makes MoneyRestaurant Brands International generates revenue primarily through its franchising model, which allows the company to earn significant fees from franchisees based on sales and royalties. Additionally, it makes money from company-operated restaurants, where it retains a larger portion of revenues. The company also benefits from supply chain efficiencies and product distribution, which contribute to its earnings. Strategic partnerships, such as collaborations with food suppliers and technology firms, enhance operational capabilities and customer engagement, further driving revenue growth.

Restaurant Brands International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Organic Revenue Growth

Organic Revenue Growth
Measures revenue growth from existing operations, excluding acquisitions or currency effects, to assess the company's true growth momentum and operational effectiveness.

Chart InsightsTim Hortons and the International segments are key drivers of Restaurant Brands International's growth, with Tim Hortons maintaining positive momentum in Canada. Despite challenges in the U.S. market, particularly for Burger King and Popeyes, the company's strategic focus on quality and franchisee engagement is promising. The latest earnings call highlights a 5.3% system-wide sales growth and a 5.7% increase in organic adjusted operating income, underscoring disciplined cost management and potential for future growth, although commodity inflation remains a concern.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Restaurant Brands International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong performance in Q3 with growth across various segments, particularly in Tim Hortons Canada and international operations. However, challenges remain with Popeyes U.S. underperformance and elevated beef costs affecting Burger King U.S. Despite some headwinds, the company remains confident in its growth trajectory.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Overall Performance

Q3 saw comparable sales up 4%, net restaurant growth of 2.8%, and system-wide sales growth of 6.9%. Organic adjusted operating income grew 8.8%, and nominal EPS grew in double digits.

Tim Hortons Canada Success

Tim Hortons Canada delivered 18 consecutive quarters of positive same-store sales. Comparable sales grew 4.2% in Q3, outperforming the broader Canadian QSR industry by 3 points.

International Business Growth

International operations, contributing 26% of operating profit, saw same-store sales increase by 6.5% and system-wide sales growth of more than 12%.

Burger King U.S. Progress

U.S. comparable sales grew 3.2%, with franchisee confidence near all-time highs and consistent outperformance against the Burger QSR category.

Strong Financial Management

Generated $566 million in free cash flow and returned $282 million to shareholders through dividends. Reduced interest expenses from refinancing activities.

Negative Updates

Popeyes U.S. Underperformance

Popeyes saw a 2% decline in U.S. comparable sales. Efforts to drive new guest trials fell short in repeat visitation.

Impact of Elevated Beef Costs

Burger King U.S. faced short-term margin pressures due to elevated beef costs, with prices up high teens year-over-year.

Softened October Trends

October began with choppier trends in the U.S., though it hasn't prompted a change in plans.

Company Guidance

During the Restaurant Brands International Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a robust performance despite a challenging consumer environment. Key metrics highlighted include a 4% increase in comparable sales, a 2.8% rise in net restaurant growth, and a 6.9% growth in system-wide sales. This strong top-line performance contributed to an 8.8% growth in organic adjusted operating income and double-digit nominal EPS growth. The call also noted the positive contributions from Tim Hortons Canada and the international business, which together account for approximately 70% of RBI's adjusted operating income, with both segments achieving 18 consecutive quarters of positive same-store sales. Additionally, the Burger King segment in the U.S. showed improvement with a 3.2% increase in comparable sales, driven by menu innovation and remodels. Overall, the company expressed confidence in achieving at least 8% organic AOI growth for the full year 2025, supported by strategic initiatives and disciplined execution across its brands.

Restaurant Brands International Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Restaurant Brands International demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, with significant improvements in leverage. However, challenges in maintaining profitability are evident due to declining profit margins and return on equity. Improved free cash flow growth is a positive indicator, but cash flow management requires attention.

Income Statement

Positive

Restaurant Brands International has shown consistent revenue growth over the years, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.74%. However, the gross profit margin has decreased significantly in the TTM period to 8.03% from 35.97% in the previous year, indicating increased cost pressures. The net profit margin also declined to 9.95% in the TTM period from 12.15% in the previous year, which suggests challenges in maintaining profitability. Despite these challenges, the company maintains a strong EBIT margin of 17.42% and an EBITDA margin of 22.86% in the TTM period, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company has improved its debt-to-equity ratio to 0.58 in the TTM period from 5.13 in the previous year, indicating a significant reduction in leverage. However, the return on equity has decreased to 28.54% in the TTM period from 32.83% in the previous year, reflecting a decline in profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced approach to asset financing.

Cash Flow

Positive

The free cash flow growth rate has improved significantly to 2.75% in the TTM period, indicating better cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.85, demonstrating adequate cash flow coverage. However, the operating cash flow coverage ratio has slightly decreased compared to previous years, which could indicate potential cash flow management challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.26B	8.41B	7.02B	6.50B	5.74B	4.97B
Gross Profit	3.81B	3.02B	2.80B	2.60B	2.37B	1.97B
EBITDA	2.41B	2.66B	2.24B	2.07B	2.04B	1.50B
Net Income	922.00M	1.02B	1.19B	1.01B	838.00M	486.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	25.67B	24.63B	23.39B	22.75B	23.25B	22.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.21B	1.33B	1.14B	1.18B	1.09B	1.56B
Total Debt	15.84B	15.96B	14.52B	14.49B	14.62B	14.12B
Total Liabilities	20.50B	19.79B	18.66B	18.48B	19.39B	19.06B
Stockholders Equity	3.38B	3.11B	2.87B	2.50B	2.24B	2.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.36B	1.30B	1.20B	1.39B	1.62B	804.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.60B	1.50B	1.32B	1.49B	1.73B	921.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-260.24M	-660.00M	11.00M	-64.00M	-1.10B	-79.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.23B	-625.00M	-1.37B	-1.31B	-1.09B	-821.00M

Restaurant Brands International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price70.87

Price Trends

50DMA

68.80

Positive

100DMA

66.62

Positive

200DMA

66.26

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.83

Positive

RSI

53.71

Neutral

STOCH

15.66

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For QSR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 70.60, above the 50-day MA of 68.80, and above the 200-day MA of 66.26, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.83 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.66 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for QSR.

Restaurant Brands International Risk Analysis

Restaurant Brands International disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Restaurant Brands International reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Restaurant Brands International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YUMC	78 Outperform	$16.97B	19.46	15.44%	1.98%	3.29%	6.72%
QSR	75 Outperform	$32.18B	25.22	28.08%	3.44%	16.82%	-29.91%
CMG	73 Outperform	$46.11B	31.85	44.96%	―	7.31%	5.26%
DPZ	68 Neutral	$14.59B	25.23	―	1.56%	3.92%	4.98%
MCD	65 Neutral	$220.56B	26.41	―	2.26%	1.26%	2.87%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
YUM	59 Neutral	$41.13B	28.84	―	1.88%	11.60%	-4.33%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

QSR

Restaurant Brands International

70.87

5.81

8.93%

CMG

Chipotle

36.14

-28.66

-44.23%

DPZ

Domino's Pizza

431.73

-10.74

-2.43%

MCD

McDonald's

316.72

25.80

8.87%

YUM

Yum! Brands

151.06

18.58

14.02%

YUMC

Yum China Holdings

48.54

0.71

1.48%

Restaurant Brands International Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy

Restaurant Brands International Announces Joint Venture in China

Positive

Nov 10, 2025

On November 7, 2025, Restaurant Brands International (RBI) announced a joint venture with CPE Alder Investment Limited to enhance Burger King China’s growth. CPE will invest $350 million, owning 83% of the venture, while RBI retains 17% and a board seat. This move aims to double Burger King’s presence in China to over 4,000 restaurants by 2035, aligning with RBI’s strategy to simplify operations and focus on franchising. The transaction, expected to close in early 2026, will also involve a 20-year development agreement to expand the brand’s footprint in China, supporting RBI’s goal for 5%+ net restaurant growth.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025