Personalis (PSNL)
NASDAQ:PSNL
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Personalis
(NASDAQ:PSNL)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▼(-10.85% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (ongoing losses, negative free cash flow, and a major revenue disruption in the financial statements) and bearish technical trends. The latest earnings call provides a meaningful offset via clear 2026 growth guidance, Medicare reimbursement progress, and strong liquidity, but the planned increase in losses and cash burn limits overall attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Rapid Clinical Volume Growth
Sustained, large percentage increases in Clinical tests create durable scale advantages: higher throughput can lower per-test costs, increase lab utilization, and accelerate evidence generation. Growing clinical volumes also deepen provider relationships and support long-term market share gains if reimbursement converts.
Negative Factors
Consistent Negative Cash Flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow mean the business consumes cash to operate. Continued reliance on reserves or external capital increases dilution and constrains strategic options if commercial or reimbursement progress lags, making long-term self-sufficiency uncertain.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Rapid Clinical Volume Growth
Sustained, large percentage increases in Clinical tests create durable scale advantages: higher throughput can lower per-test costs, increase lab utilization, and accelerate evidence generation. Growing clinical volumes also deepen provider relationships and support long-term market share gains if reimbursement converts.
Read all positive factors
Personalis (PSNL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$605.04M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.13
Revenue Growth-17.69%
EPS Growth33.47%
CountryUS
Employees228
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.26
Shares Outstanding104,677,900
10 Day Avg. Volume1,330,569
30 Day Avg. Volume1,467,582
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)2.72
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-8.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit22.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-5.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.67Price Target Upside73.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$78.76M
Personalis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Personalis, Inc. operates as a cancer genomics company worldwide. The company provides sequencing and data analysis services to support the development of cancer therapies and large-scale genetic research programs. It offers NeXT Platform, which p...
How the Company Makes Money
Personalis makes money primarily by providing fee-for-service and contract-based sample analysis and data generation services using its sequencing-based assays and associated bioinformatics. Key revenue streams include: (1) Biopharma and research ...
Personalis Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across Personalis’ business lines (for example sequencing services, clinical assays, and biopharma partnerships), revealing which activities drive growth, margins, and recurring income. Highlights dependence on large customers or one-off projects versus scalable, repeatable contracts and shows whether the company is moving toward higher-value clinical products that can boost long-term profitability and reduce revenue volatility.
Breaks down revenue across Personalis’ business lines (for example sequencing services, clinical assays, and biopharma partnerships), revealing which activities drive growth, margins, and recurring income. Highlights dependence on large customers or one-off projects versus scalable, repeatable contracts and shows whether the company is moving toward higher-value clinical products that can boost long-term profitability and reduce revenue volatility.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyPersonalis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong commercial and clinical momentum (massive Clinical test growth, nearly 240% MRD biopharma revenue increase, two Medicare coverage wins, deepening evidence base and product innovation) alongside an intentional, transitional financial profile (legacy revenue wind-downs, margin compression from unreimbursed volume, higher operating losses and increased cash burn as the company scales). Management presented a clear strategy to trade near-term margins and higher cash usage for accelerated market share and reimbursement conversion, supported by a strong cash position and multiple validation points. Upside depends on further reimbursement rollouts (e.g., IO) and steady biopharma demand/timing.Positive Updates
Explosive Clinical Volume Growth
Delivered 6,183 Clinical tests in Q4 2025 (41% sequential growth vs Q3; 329% year-over-year). Full year 2025 Clinical volume exceeded 16,000 tests (394% YoY growth). 2026 volume guidance: 43,000–45,000 tests (~170% growth YoY; company expects Clinical volumes to roughly quadruple).
Negative Updates
Transitional Top-Line Impact from Legacy Contract Wind-Downs
Full-year 2025 revenue was $69.6M. Company navigated a planned $19.5M year-over-year decline from the Natera contract and a $10M decline from the conclusion of a Moderna melanoma trial—roughly $29M of expected headwinds—muting revenue growth despite strong Clinical volume gains. Q4 2025 revenue of $17.3M was only a modest 3% YoY increase vs $16.8M in Q4 2024.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Explosive Clinical Volume Growth
Delivered 6,183 Clinical tests in Q4 2025 (41% sequential growth vs Q3; 329% year-over-year). Full year 2025 Clinical volume exceeded 16,000 tests (394% YoY growth). 2026 volume guidance: 43,000–45,000 tests (~170% growth YoY; company expects Clinical volumes to roughly quadruple).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Personalis guided 2026 total revenue of $78–80M, with Clinical revenue of $10–11M (from recently Medicare-covered breast and lung surveillance), pharma tests & services and other revenue of $55–56M (including MRD revenue of $20–21M) and population sequencing + enterprise of ~ $13M; it also set a volume target of 43,000–45,000 NeXT Personal tests (~170% YoY) and said its “strategic revenue” should grow from ~ $14M in 2025 to $30–32M in 2026 (~121% growth as Clinical volumes are expected to roughly quadruple). For context, Q4/2025 results included 6,183 Clinical tests (41% sequential growth, 329% YoY) and company 2025 totals were >16,000 Clinical tests (394% YoY) and $69.6M revenue ($17.3M Q4); gross margin is guided to 15–20% for 2026 (Q1 potentially the low point) after Q4 gross margin of 11% and FY2025 margin of 22.7% (Q4 unreimbursed costs diluted margins by ~1,900 bps). The company expects a ~ $105M net loss for 2026 (vs. $81.3M in 2025), plans ~ $100M of cash usage in 2026 (it used ~$74M in 2025) and finished Q4 with $240M of cash and short-term investments and minimal debt.Personalis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 0.00 | 84.61M | 73.48M | 65.05M | 85.49M |
| Gross Profit | -53.87M | 26.82M | 18.21M | 13.35M | 31.66M |
| EBITDA | -71.00M | -70.30M | -96.81M | -104.64M | -59.01M |
| Net Income | -81.27M | -81.28M | -108.30M | -113.31M | -65.23M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 334.16M | 270.27M | 225.10M | 292.70M | 396.53M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 239.95M | 185.01M | 114.18M | 167.66M | 287.06M |
| Total Debt | 31.87M | 44.25M | 47.73M | 48.65M | 58.33M |
| Total Liabilities | 72.98M | 67.31M | 95.66M | 74.56M | 86.23M |
| Stockholders Equity | 261.19M | 202.96M | 129.44M | 218.14M | 310.30M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -79.45M | -46.75M | -67.17M | -120.13M | -81.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -74.95M | -45.15M | -56.26M | -70.23M | -70.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.57M | -35.07M | 13.10M | 52.54M | -60.07M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 130.34M | 114.67M | 11.03M | 1.37M | 169.70M |
Personalis Technical Analysis
Neutral
6.73
Price Trends
7.56
Negative
8.39
Negative
7.55
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.31
Negative
46.89
Neutral
76.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PSNL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.70, below the 50-day MA of 7.56, and below the 200-day MA of 7.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PSNL.
Personalis Risk Analysis
Personalis disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Personalis reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Personalis Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.11B | 79.03 | -2.61% | ― | 19.17% | -111.99% | |
60 Neutral | $751.64M | -46.67 | -5.27% | ― | 3.66% | -229.24% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $605.04M | -8.74 | -39.13% | ― | -17.69% | 33.47% | |
49 Neutral | $420.33M | -13.36 | -5.40% | ― | 9.54% | -79.16% | |
48 Neutral | $448.84M | -1.57 | -79.81% | ― | -1.56% | -181.57% | |
45 Neutral | $365.19M | -6.52 | -17.59% | ― | -39.29% | 64.26% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
PSNL
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.