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Personalis
(NASDAQ:PSNL)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(115.45% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/26/26
PSNL scores in the mid-range primarily due to weak financial performance—shrinking TTM revenue, deeply negative margins, and significant ongoing cash burn—despite a manageable leverage profile. Technical momentum is a notable positive with the stock trading above key moving averages and a positive MACD. The earnings call supports the outlook with reaffirmed guidance and strong clinical volume/reimbursement momentum, but continued large expected losses and cash usage keep risk elevated; valuation remains difficult to assess given negative earnings and no dividend data.
Positive Factors
Clinical volume acceleration and strong retention
Sustained, rapid clinical test volume growth and physician retention above 98% indicate durable commercial traction and customer stickiness. Higher recurring clinical volumes support predictable revenue scale, data network effects, and the operational leverage needed for long‑term margin improvement as reimbursed tests grow.
Negative Factors
Severe gross margin compression
A collapse in gross margin driven by unreimbursed tests and mix shift materially weakens the firm's unit economics. Unless reimbursement and higher‑ASP volumes materialize on schedule, persistently low gross margins will limit the company's ability to fund operations and scale profitably, pressuring long‑term viability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Clinical volume acceleration and strong retention
Sustained, rapid clinical test volume growth and physician retention above 98% indicate durable commercial traction and customer stickiness. Higher recurring clinical volumes support predictable revenue scale, data network effects, and the operational leverage needed for long‑term margin improvement as reimbursed tests grow.
Read all positive factors
Personalis Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across Personalis’ business lines (for example sequencing services, clinical assays, and biopharma partnerships), revealing which activities drive growth, margins, and recurring income. Highlights dependence on large customers or one-off projects versus scalable, repeatable contracts and shows whether the company is moving toward higher-value clinical products that can boost long-term profitability and reduce revenue volatility.
Breaks down revenue across Personalis’ business lines (for example sequencing services, clinical assays, and biopharma partnerships), revealing which activities drive growth, margins, and recurring income. Highlights dependence on large customers or one-off projects versus scalable, repeatable contracts and shows whether the company is moving toward higher-value clinical products that can boost long-term profitability and reduce revenue volatility.
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The Fly
The FlyPersonalis (PSNL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.50B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth-24.71%
EPS Growth21.16%
CountryUS
Employees228
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Diagnostics & Research
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.02
Shares Outstanding104,721,100
10 Day Avg. Volume4,341,035
30 Day Avg. Volume3,561,602
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)2.72
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-8.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit93.89
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-9.72
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.00Price Target Upside63.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$78.89M
Personalis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Personalis, Inc. operates globally as a specialized cancer genomics firm. The company delivers advanced sequencing and data analysis capabilities, primarily supporting the development of novel cancer treatments and facilitating extensive genetic r...
How the Company Makes Money
Personalis primarily generates revenue by providing genomics and related molecular profiling services to customers (rather than selling a therapeutic product). Key revenue streams include: (1) Service revenue from sequencing and multi-omic profili...
Personalis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced strong operational and clinical momentum (rapid test volume growth, compelling real-world and study data, growing MRD pipeline, reimbursement wins and a healthy cash balance) against material near-term financial headwinds (severe gross margin compression, higher operating expenses, widening net loss and elevated cash burn). Management frames the negative margin and revenue mix trends as intentional investments to capture MRD market share and expects margins and ASPs to improve as reimbursed volume scales, but the timing of reimbursement and conversion to higher-margin revenue remains a key risk.Positive Updates
Rapid clinical volume acceleration
Delivered >7,800 clinical tests in Q1 2026, a 26% sequential increase vs Q4 and a 258% year-over-year increase, with a 2026 annual volume target of 43,000 to 45,000 tests.
Negative Updates
Near-term revenue mix shift and year-over-year decline
Total Q1 revenue was $15.5M, ~25% lower than Q1 2025, reflecting an intentional migration away from lower-margin legacy/enterprise revenue and the expected decline in Moderna-related revenue after a large Phase 3 enrollment ended.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Rapid clinical volume acceleration
Delivered >7,800 clinical tests in Q1 2026, a 26% sequential increase vs Q4 and a 258% year-over-year increase, with a 2026 annual volume target of 43,000 to 45,000 tests.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Personalis reaffirmed full‑year 2026 revenue guidance of $78–$80 million, expecting clinical revenue of $10–$11M (breast and lung surveillance), pharma/tests and other customers of $55–$56M, population sequencing/enterprise ~ $13M, strategic revenue to more than double to $30–$32M and biopharma MRD revenue of $20–$21M, and it projects 43,000–45,000 clinical tests for 2026. Management expects full‑year gross margin of 15%–20% (Q1 was 1.8% with >2,000 bps dilution from unreimbursed tests and the first half as the trough), a net loss of ~ $105M, and cash usage of ~ $100M; Q1 results cited $15.5M revenue, >7,800 clinical tests (+26% sequential, +258% YoY), $4.5M strategic revenue, $3.1M MRD revenue, $1.4M clinical revenue, operating expenses of $32.4M (R&D $14.5M; SG&A $17.9M), net loss $30.0M, and $233.2M cash and short‑term investments after ~$28M cash used (including ~$5M one‑time incentive).Personalis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 64.52M | 0.00 | 84.61M | 73.48M | 65.05M | 85.49M |
| Gross Profit | 8.85M | -53.87M | 26.82M | 18.21M | 13.35M | 31.66M |
| EBITDA | -85.53M | -71.00M | -70.30M | -96.81M | -104.64M | -59.01M |
| Net Income | -95.55M | -81.27M | -81.28M | -108.30M | -113.31M | -65.23M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 325.39M | 334.16M | 270.27M | 225.10M | 292.70M | 396.53M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 233.22M | 239.95M | 185.01M | 114.18M | 167.66M | 287.06M |
| Total Debt | 38.78M | 39.95M | 44.25M | 47.73M | 48.65M | 58.33M |
| Total Liabilities | 70.63M | 72.98M | 67.31M | 95.66M | 74.56M | 86.23M |
| Stockholders Equity | 254.76M | 261.19M | 202.96M | 129.44M | 218.14M | 310.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -84.65M | -79.45M | -46.75M | -67.17M | -120.13M | -81.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -79.46M | -74.95M | -45.15M | -56.26M | -70.23M | -70.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -46.04M | -22.57M | -35.07M | 13.10M | 52.54M | -60.07M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 128.08M | 130.34M | 114.67M | 11.03M | 1.37M | 169.70M |
Personalis Technical Analysis
Positive
6.73
Price Trends
9.00
Positive
8.24
Positive
8.41
Positive
Market Momentum
1.34
Negative
74.99
Negative
89.41
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PSNL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.25, below the 50-day MA of 9.00, and below the 200-day MA of 8.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.99 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PSNL.
Personalis Risk Analysis
Personalis disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Personalis reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Personalis Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $1.50B | -179.06 | -2.61% | ― | 19.17% | -111.99% | |
67 Neutral | $734.29M | -55.48 | -2.77% | ― | -2.06% | -169.07% | |
55 Neutral | $1.50B | -13.71 | -43.52% | ― | -24.71% | 21.16% | |
54 Neutral | $607.49M | -8.79 | -6.70% | ― | 9.54% | -79.16% | |
52 Neutral | $569.52M | -1.36 | -109.09% | ― | -0.28% | -286.80% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
46 Neutral | $347.35M | -3.59 | -20.80% | ― | -49.17% | 31.01% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
PSNL
Personalis
13.98
7.12
103.79%
LAB
Standard BioTools
0.90
-0.40
-30.92%
MYGN
Myriad Genetics
5.86
0.31
5.59%
CDNA
CareDx
28.31
9.06
47.06%
FLGT
Fulgent Genetics
21.02
1.50
7.68%
CSTL
Castle Biosciences
23.83
4.07
20.60%
Personalis Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Medicare Expands Coverage for Personalis NeXT Personal Test
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 19, 2026, the Centers for Medicare Medicaid Services Molecular Diagnostics Program expanded Medicare coverage for Personalis, Inc.’s NeXT Personal test to include monitoring treatment response to neoadjuvant therapy in patients with ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Personalis Shareholders Back Directors, Auditor and Executive Pay
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Personalis, Inc. held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders virtually, with 87.76% of outstanding shares represented, establishing a quorum for corporate decision-making. Stockholders elected two Class I directors, Olivia K. Blo...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Personalis Gains Expanded Medicare Coverage for NeXT Personal
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Personalis received expanded Medicare coverage from the Centers for Medicare Medicaid Services Molecular Diagnostics Program for its NeXT Personal test. The coverage now includes immunotherapy monitoring for patients with late-st...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.