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Personalis Inc (PSNL)
NASDAQ:PSNL
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Personalis (PSNL) AI Stock Analysis

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PSNL

Personalis

(NASDAQ:PSNL)

Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-4.58% Downside)
Personalis faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and profitability issues, which weigh heavily on the overall score. While recent corporate events and potential growth in the MRD market provide some optimism, the stock's technical indicators and valuation remain concerning. The company's ability to improve its financial performance and capitalize on growth opportunities will be crucial for future stock performance.
Positive Factors
Clinical Test Growth
PSNL drove strong +59% q/q growth of its clinical tests with its partner Tempus and reaffirmed its goal to obtain two Medicare coverage determinations by YE'25.
MRD Testing
NeXT Personal MRD continues to resonate with docs, is building traction.
Negative Factors
Guidance Reduction
Shares of PSNL are down ~23% after PSNL uncharacteristically missed a quarter and guided down for the full year.
Revenue Miss
The company reported total revenues of $17.2M, below the consensus estimate of $20.1M.

Personalis (PSNL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Personalis Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPersonalis, Inc. operates as a cancer genomics company worldwide. The company provides sequencing and data analysis services to support the development of cancer therapies and large-scale genetic research programs. It offers NeXT Platform, which provides data analysis for tumor and its immune microenvironment, from a single limited tissue or plasma sample; ImmunoID Next for tumor profiling from tissue; NeXT Liquid Biopsy for tumor profiling from plasma; NeXT Personal, a liquid biopsy offering for personalized tumor tracking for patients; NeXT Dx Test, a genomic cancer profiling test enabling composite biomarkers for cancer treatment; and NeXT SHERPA and NeXT NEOPS for neoantigen prediction capabilities. The company also provides ACE platform for clinical and therapeutic applications such as neoantigen prediction, biomarker identification, and novel drug target selection. It serves biopharmaceutical customers, universities, non-profits, and government entities. The company has partnership with Mayo Clinic; MapKure, LLC; SpringWorks Therapeutics, Inc.; and Moores Cancer Center. Personalis, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyPersonalis generates revenue primarily through its genomic sequencing services, which are utilized by pharmaceutical companies, academic institutions, and healthcare providers. The company offers a range of products and services, including whole exome and custom gene panel sequencing, as well as bioinformatics analysis. Key revenue streams include contracts with pharmaceutical companies for companion diagnostics and clinical trials, where Personalis provides genomic insights to support drug development. Additionally, the company has established partnerships with leading cancer centers and research institutions, contributing to its earnings through collaborative research projects and service agreements. Personalis also benefits from reimbursement for its services through health insurance providers, further enhancing its revenue model.

Personalis Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed view with significant achievements in clinical adoption and potential growth opportunities in MRD, yet faced challenges with revenue decline, biopharma project delays, and gross margin pressures. The company remains confident about future reimbursement outcomes and growth potential.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Accelerated Clinical Adoption
Test volume for NeXT Personal grew 59% sequentially with nearly 3,500 clinical results delivered in Q2, expanding the base of ordering physicians to over 600.
Partnership with Tempus
The partnership with Tempus is gaining momentum, commercializing NeXT Personal across major cancer indications and immunotherapy monitoring.
MRD Market Growth Potential
The MRD market is poised to exceed $20 billion annually, with Personalis positioned to capture a significant share.
Strong Cash Position
The company ended the quarter with $173.2 million in cash and short-term investments, with no significant debt.
Prospective Reimbursement Catalyst
Personalis is on track to secure Medicare reimbursement for 2 indications this year, which is expected to unlock a significant revenue stream.
NeXT Personal Growth with Biopharma
NeXT Personal revenue from biopharma is on track for 300% to 400% year-over-year growth, with new customers expected to generate over $5 million each in revenue this year.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Total revenue for the second quarter was $17.2 million, a 24% decrease compared to $22.6 million for the same period of the prior year, primarily due to declines from Natera and Moderna.
Biopharma Revenue Challenges
Biopharma revenue was $11.1 million, a 16% decrease year-over-year, with project delays affecting revenue recognition.
Updated Revenue Guidance
Full-year revenue guidance was revised down to $70 million to $80 million from $80 million to $90 million, reflecting variability and delays in biopharma projects.
Gross Margin Pressure
Gross margin decreased to 27.6% from 35.6% year-over-year, affected by lower revenue and unreimbursed clinical test costs.
Increased Net Loss
Net loss for the second quarter was $20.1 million, compared to $12.8 million for the same period of the prior year, due to lower revenue and increased operating expenses.
Company Guidance
During the Personalis Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, several key metrics and strategic updates were discussed. The company reported $17.2 million in revenue for the second quarter, reflecting a 24% decrease year-over-year, largely due to declines in revenue from Natera and Moderna. Despite this, the clinical adoption of their NeXT Personal test showed robust growth, with test volumes increasing by 59% sequentially, delivering nearly 3,500 clinical results. The company has expanded its base of ordering physicians to over 600. Personalis is targeting Medicare coverage for two indications by the end of the year, aiming to capture a significant share of the $20 billion MRD market. Full-year revenue guidance was updated to a range of $70 million to $80 million, down from the previous $80 million to $90 million, due to industry-wide headwinds in biopharma R&D spending. The company continues to focus on converting its biopharma pipeline, expecting 300% to 400% growth in MRD-related revenue this year, and anticipates achieving Medicare reimbursement as a significant catalyst for future financial performance.

Personalis Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Personalis displays mixed financial health with strong equity positions, yet struggles with profitability and cash flow negativity. Revenue growth provides some optimism, but operational losses and cash flow issues are concerning. The company must strategically manage costs and leverage growth opportunities to improve financial performance.
Income Statement
42
Neutral
The company shows a mixed performance on the income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) Gross Profit Margin stands at 33.31%, which indicates a reasonable level of profitability, albeit with high operational costs reflected in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The Net Profit Margin is significantly negative at -98.10%, highlighting ongoing losses. Revenue growth is positive at 3.20% year-over-year, suggesting some potential for future revenue expansion despite current challenges.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Personalis maintains a solid balance sheet, with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 0.21, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The Equity Ratio is strong at 75.88%, showing substantial equity funding. However, despite a positive Return on Equity of -40.54%, the company operates at a loss, impacting overall financial health.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with negative free cash flow, though the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 0.56 suggests some alignment between cash outflows and net loss. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio at 0.51 indicates cash operations are not fully supporting net income, a risk factor for liquidity.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue80.32M84.61M73.48M65.05M85.49M78.65M
Gross Profit25.26M26.82M18.21M13.35M31.66M20.11M
EBITDA-80.80M-70.30M-96.81M-104.64M-59.01M-34.05M
Net Income-91.32M-81.28M-108.30M-113.31M-65.23M-41.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets258.68M270.27M225.10M292.70M396.53M244.84M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments173.23M185.01M114.18M167.66M287.06M203.29M
Total Debt42.44M44.25M48.96M48.65M52.80M10.99M
Total Liabilities67.85M67.31M95.66M74.56M86.23M49.90M
Stockholders Equity190.83M202.96M129.44M218.14M310.30M194.94M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-49.18M-46.75M-67.17M-120.13M-81.91M-45.90M
Operating Cash Flow-44.89M-45.15M-56.26M-70.23M-70.83M-42.65M
Investing Cash Flow-81.28M-35.07M13.10M52.54M-60.07M-65.14M
Financing Cash Flow131.79M114.67M11.03M1.37M169.70M121.27M

Personalis Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.24
Price Trends
50DMA
5.66
Negative
100DMA
5.22
Positive
200DMA
4.85
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.12
Negative
RSI
54.56
Neutral
STOCH
82.95
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PSNL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.76, below the 50-day MA of 5.66, and above the 200-day MA of 4.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.95 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PSNL.

Personalis Risk Analysis

Personalis disclosed 72 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Personalis reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Personalis Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
57
Neutral
$7.65B-4584.47%28.74%18.25%
52
Neutral
$451.37M-60.26%0.36%22.13%
52
Neutral
$631.77M-70.03%3.83%-137.31%
51
Neutral
$7.95B-0.40-41.67%2.21%22.29%-1.85%
48
Neutral
$1.10B-13.16%-7.31%29.84%
48
Neutral
$1.55B-17.58%22.72%62.11%
45
Neutral
$1.25B-41.88%-3.20%-11471.95%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PSNL
Personalis
5.24
-0.08
-1.50%
MYGN
Myriad Genetics
6.61
-20.53
-75.64%
NEOG
Neogen
5.75
-9.60
-62.54%
OPK
Opko Health
1.35
-0.21
-13.46%
GH
Guardant Health
60.13
36.36
152.97%
TWST
Twist Bioscience
25.76
-11.50
-30.86%

Personalis Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Personalis Secures New VA Contract Task Order
Positive
Aug 22, 2025

On August 19, 2025, Personalis, Inc. announced a new task order under its contract with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs for the Million Veteran Program, effective September 30, 2025, valued at up to $13.5 million. This order increases the cumulative value of task orders received by Personalis under its contracts with the VA MVP to approximately $225.0 million, highlighting the company’s significant role in this large-scale genomic research initiative.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Personalis Expands Agreement with Tempus AI for Cancer Test
Positive
Jul 9, 2025

On July 8, 2025, Personalis, Inc. and Tempus AI, Inc. amended their existing agreement to include colorectal cancer as a new indication for the NeXT Personal® test, alongside breast cancer, lung cancer, and immuno-oncology monitoring. The amendment extends the exclusivity period for marketing the test and modifies certain standstill restrictions, potentially strengthening Personalis’ market position in cancer diagnostics.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 05, 2025