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Pandora (PNDRY)
OTHER OTC:PNDRY
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Pandora
(OTC:PNDRY)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▼(-29.29% Downside)
The score is primarily driven by strong profitability and revenue momentum, offset by significantly increased balance-sheet leverage and very bearish technical signals. Valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield) provides support but does not fully counter the elevated financial risk and negative price momentum.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent 12.6% revenue growth demonstrates sustained consumer demand and effective product/market execution. Durable top-line expansion improves operating leverage, funds retail and e‑commerce investment, and supports strategic reinvestment over the medium term.
High Profitability
Very high gross margin and solid net margin reflect strong brand pricing power and tight cost control. Sustainable margin profiles provide a buffer against input-cost pressure, enable reinvestment and shareholder returns, and support long-term competitive resilience.
Strong Cash Generation
Free cash flow growth of 19.4% and operating cash flow to net income of 1.67 indicate robust cash conversion. Reliable cash generation supports debt servicing, capex for retail/digital channels, dividends and strategic initiatives without immediate equity dilution.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.43 signals significant financial leverage. Elevated debt increases interest and refinancing risks, limits flexibility for M&A or counter-cyclical investment, and can amplify earnings volatility if top-line or margins weaken.
Thin Equity Base
An equity ratio under 20% implies a relatively thin capital cushion versus assets. Low equity buffers raise the likelihood of covenant pressure or forced deleveraging during downturns, potentially forcing asset sales or constraining strategic spending.
Leverage-driven ROE Risk
Extremely high ROE (94.9%) appears driven by leverage, which can be fragile. If earnings slip, high leverage can quickly erode equity and returns, increasing downside risk and making capital structure stability a material long-term concern.
Pandora (PNDRY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.4
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth8.46%
EPS Growth9.46%
CountryUS
Employees37,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryLuxury Goods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.12
Shares Outstanding632,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume3,181
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.70
Price to Book (P/B)10.02
Price to Sales (P/S)1.74
P/FCF Ratio7.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.53
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Pandora Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPandora A/S engages in the designing, manufacturing, and marketing of jewelry products. The company operates in two segments, Core and Fuel With More. It offers charms, bracelets, rings, earrings, necklaces, and pendants; and lab-grown diamonds. The company sells its products through physical stores, online stores, and wholesale and third-party distribution in the United States, China, the United Kingdom, Italy, Australia, France, Germany, and internationally. Pandora A/S was founded in 1982 and is based in Copenhagen, Denmark.
How the Company Makes MoneyPandora generates revenue primarily through the sale of its jewelry products, which are distributed through a combination of owned retail stores, franchise stores, and e-commerce platforms. The company’s core revenue streams include direct sales from its retail locations and online sales, as well as wholesale relationships with third-party retailers. Key partnerships with various distributors and retailers enhance its market reach, while seasonal collections and limited-edition products drive consumer interest and sales. Additionally, Pandora benefits from brand loyalty and repeat purchases due to its focus on personalization and customer engagement.
Pandora Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2024
(Q3-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Pandora showed strong financial performance with significant like-for-like growth, improved margins, and successful brand repositioning. However, challenges in key markets like China and Italy, as well as the pressure from rising commodity prices, indicate areas of concern.Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Like-for-Like Growth
Pandora delivered 7% like-for-like growth in Q3 2024, demonstrating stable growth in core collections and strong growth in other collections.
Improved Gross Margin
The gross margin remained above 80% for the second consecutive quarter, showing structural efficiencies and ASP improvements.
Double-Digit EPS Growth
Pandora achieved double-digit EPS growth, fulfilling its target set at last year's Capital Markets Day.
Lab-Grown Diamonds Growth
The lab-grown diamond collection showed a 34% like-for-like growth, indicating strong market reception.
Full-Year Organic Growth Guidance Raised
Pandora increased its full-year organic growth guidance to 11%-12% from 9%-12% previously, due to strong year-to-date performance.
U.S. Market Performance
The U.S. market delivered 6% like-for-like growth, with total organic growth at 14% due to network expansion.
Brand Repositioning Success
Pandora's marketing efforts and brand restaging have led to higher store traffic and improved brand KPIs, such as unaided awareness and consideration.
Network Expansion Contribution
Pandora's store network expansion contributed 5% to organic revenue growth in Q3 2024.
Negative Updates
Challenges in China
China faced a 33% like-for-like decline, attributed to a challenging market backdrop and brand-related challenges.
Performance in Italy
Pandora's business in Italy remains challenged, with brand metrics not yet translating into higher store traffic.
Commodity and FX Headwinds
Pandora faces a 50 basis point headwind from commodities and foreign exchange, which is expected to persist.
EBIT Margin Pressure from Silver Prices
EBIT margin guidance for 2026 faces a potential 360 basis point headwind due to increased silver and gold prices.
Australia's Negative Performance
Australia showed a 2% like-for-like decline, with performance weighed down by the partner channel.
Company Guidance
During the Q3 2024 earnings call for Pandora (PNDORA.CO), significant guidance was provided regarding the company's performance and future outlook. The company reported a 7% like-for-like growth in the quarter, with particular strength in the "Fuel with more" segment, which saw a 21% like-for-like increase, and the lab-grown diamond collection, which achieved 34% like-for-like growth. Pandora raised its full-year organic growth guidance to 11% to 12%, previously set at 9% to 12%, while maintaining the EBIT margin guidance at around 25%. The company also noted strong performance in the U.S. with a 6% like-for-like growth and robust growth in Germany at 42%. However, challenges were observed in China, with a 33% decline in like-for-like sales, attributed to market conditions and brand positioning issues. The call highlighted ongoing investments in Pandora's Phoenix strategy, emphasizing brand transformation and marketing efforts, which have led to increased store traffic and improved brand KPIs. As part of the cost mitigation strategy in response to higher commodity prices, Pandora implemented a 5% price increase in October and is exploring further pricing actions for 2025.Pandora Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong operating performance (very high gross margin ~80%, solid EBIT/EBITDA margins, and ~45% TTM revenue growth) is tempered by materially higher leverage and a shrinking equity buffer (debt-to-equity rising to ~6.1 TTM). Cash generation remains healthy in absolute terms, but free cash flow growth and cash conversion have recently deteriorated.Income Statement
PNDRY shows strong and improving profitability with very high gross margins (~80%) and healthy operating profitability in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (EBIT margin ~23% and EBITDA margin ~31%). Revenue growth has accelerated over time, reaching ~45% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), while net margins remain solid (~16%). The key weakness is modest net-margin compression versus 2024 and below the 2022 peak, suggesting costs/taxes/other items are taking a slightly larger bite even as revenue scales.86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet has weakened materially due to sharply higher leverage: debt-to-equity rises from ~0.6 (2021) to ~2.4 (2024) and then to ~6.1 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), indicating equity has become a much smaller buffer against obligations. Returns on equity are very high (TTM ~133%), but this is heavily influenced by the thin equity base and higher leverage rather than purely operational improvement. Overall, the capital structure looks increasingly aggressive and raises financial risk despite strong earnings.48
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation remains solid with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow (~7.8B) and free cash flow (~6.0B), and free cash flow continues to cover net income reasonably well (~0.77x). However, free cash flow growth in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is sharply negative, and cash conversion has softened versus 2023–2024 (operating cash flow as a share of net income declines to ~0.62x). Strength is the still-healthy absolute cash generation; weakness is the recent deterioration in growth and conversion.67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 32.64B | 31.68B | 28.14B | 26.46B | 23.39B | 19.01B |
| Gross Profit | 26.02B | 25.29B | 22.12B | 20.19B | 17.80B | 14.38B |
| EBITDA | 10.17B | 10.08B | 8.96B | 8.62B | 7.42B | 4.97B |
| Net Income | 5.26B | 5.23B | 4.74B | 5.03B | 4.16B | 1.94B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 28.49B | 27.76B | 23.80B | 22.01B | 18.54B | 19.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 766.52M | 2.39B | 1.40B | 794.00M | 1.04B | 2.91B |
| Total Debt | 22.13B | 13.40B | 11.17B | 7.59B | 3.93B | 6.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.57B | 22.25B | 18.44B | 14.85B | 11.54B | 12.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.93B | 5.51B | 5.36B | 7.17B | 7.00B | 7.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.01B | 7.04B | 5.90B | 3.24B | 5.64B | 5.47B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.78B | 8.72B | 7.38B | 4.43B | 6.23B | 5.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.32B | -1.89B | -1.80B | -1.78B | -631.00M | -484.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.59B | -5.70B | -4.93B | -3.10B | -7.48B | -3.57B |
Pandora Technical Analysis
Neutral
14.85
Price Trends
12.86
Negative
14.56
Negative
17.42
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.89
Negative
44.06
Neutral
66.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PNDRY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.94, above the 50-day MA of 12.86, and below the 200-day MA of 17.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for PNDRY.
Pandora Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $6.35B | 13.73 | 19.34% | ― | 11.09% | 51.51% | |
74 Outperform | $5.32B | 11.77 | 11.28% | 3.23% | -2.83% | 184.32% | |
69 Neutral | $2.98B | 16.63 | 10.84% | 2.18% | 2.76% | -7.83% | |
64 Neutral | $3.75B | 27.58 | 8.24% | 1.46% | -0.40% | -68.99% | |
63 Neutral | $6.08B | 8.38 | 155.02% | ― | 8.46% | 9.46% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $7.76B | 18.10 | 23.63% | 2.58% | -1.23% | 109.67% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
PNDRY
Pandora
10.97
-12.66
-53.59%
COLM
Columbia Sportswear
55.33
-28.19
-33.75%
M
Macy's
21.19
6.66
45.88%
SIG
Signet Jewelers
94.76
37.74
66.18%
URBN
Urban Outfitters
72.60
18.92
35.25%
LEVI
Levi Strauss & Co
19.68
1.55
8.58%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.