Patria Investments (PAX) AI Stock Analysis

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Patria Investments

(NASDAQ:PAX)

Rating:68Neutral

Price Target:

$14.50

▲(8.05% Upside)

Patria Investments' overall score is driven by strong earnings call performance and solid financial growth, despite challenges in valuation and technical indicators. The company's increased fundraising targets and positive guidance contribute significantly to the score.

Patria Investments (PAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.12B

Dividend Yield4.45%

Average Volume (3M)497.24K

Price to Earnings (P/E)28.5

Beta (1Y)0.85

Revenue Growth22.92%

EPS Growth-40.61%

CountryUS

Employees577

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength73

IndustryAsset Management

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.24

Shares Outstanding66,521,570

10 Day Avg. Volume454,055

30 Day Avg. Volume497,243

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.89

Enterprise Value/Revenue4.83

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.65

Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.88

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$15.50

Price Target Upside15.50% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

Patria Investments Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPatria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm focused on investing in Latin America. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds. Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.

How the Company Makes MoneyPatria Investments generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees. The company charges management fees based on a percentage of assets under management (AUM), providing a steady income stream as long as the assets remain invested. Additionally, Patria earns performance fees contingent upon achieving certain return thresholds, aligning its interests with those of its investors. The firm's strategic partnerships and local market expertise enable it to identify lucrative investment opportunities, which, combined with successful asset management, contribute to its earnings. Furthermore, Patria's diversification across different asset classes and sectors helps mitigate risks and enhance potential returns.

Patria Investments Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected a strong performance in fundraising and fee-related earnings, with significant growth in AUM and successful M&A activities. Despite challenges such as the lack of performance-related earnings in the quarter and potential impacts of U.S. tariffs, the company maintains a positive outlook with increased fundraising targets and strong market positioning.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Fundraising Performance

Patria reported solid fundraising of $1.3 billion in the second quarter, with total fundraising for the first half of the year reaching $4.5 billion, which is 75% of the original $6 billion target for 2025. The company raised its full-year fundraising target to $6.3 billion to $6.6 billion, 5% to 10% higher than the initial target.

Growth in Fee-Related Earnings

Second quarter fee-related earnings were $46.1 million, representing 8% sequential and 17% year-over-year growth. Fee-earning AUM grew 6% sequentially and 20% year-over-year, reaching $48.7 billion.

Successful M&A Activity

Patria completed acquisitions of Brazilian REITs, adding approximately $600 million of high-margin permanent capital fee-earning AUM. The acquisitions were seen as an attractive alternative to fundraising.

Robust Private Equity and Infrastructure Performance

EBITDA at nonpublic private equity portfolio companies rose approximately 25% in local currency over the past year. Infrastructure Fund V reached $2.5 billion of commitments, highlighting strong demand.

Negative Updates

No Performance-Related Earnings

The second quarter did not generate any performance-related earnings. However, the net accrued performance fee balance rose 7% due to the depreciation of the dollar.

Potential Impact of U.S. Tariffs

Concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports. While the economic impact is expected to be marginal, the political implications add uncertainty to the market.

Company Guidance

During the second quarter of 2025, Patria demonstrated solid financial performance and guidance, highlighted by substantial fundraising achievements and positive growth metrics. The company raised a total of $1.3 billion in the quarter, contributing to a first-half fundraising total of approximately $4.5 billion, which is 75% of their original $6 billion target for the year. As a result, Patria has raised its full-year fundraising guidance for 2025 by 5% to 10%, targeting between $6.3 billion and $6.6 billion. Fee-related earnings for the second quarter reached $46.1 million, marking an 8% sequential increase and a 17% year-over-year growth. Total assets under management (AUM) grew to $48.7 billion, with fee-earning AUM increasing by 6% sequentially and 20% year-over-year. The company also noted over $600 million in organic net inflows into fee-earning AUM for the quarter, with an annualized organic growth rate of about 8% since the start of the year. Patria maintained its guidance for fee-related earnings for the full year, with targets set between $200 million and $225 million, reflecting approximately 20% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the range. Distributable earnings for the second quarter were $39 million, up 4% sequentially and 9% year-over-year. The company also highlighted progress in diversifying its investment platform, with notable growth in infrastructure and credit, and acquisitions such as Brazilian REITs enhancing its fee-earning AUM by approximately $600 million.

Patria Investments Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Patria Investments shows strong revenue growth and a stable equity base, but faces challenges with declining net income and cash flow generation. The increased leverage requires careful management to maintain financial health.

Income Statement

Positive

Patria Investments has shown consistent revenue growth over recent years, with a notable increase from $329.4 million in 2023 to $374.2 million in 2024. The gross profit margin remains robust, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has declined due to a decrease in net income from 2023 to 2024, which could indicate rising operational costs or other financial pressures.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a strong equity position with a healthy equity ratio, though the debt-to-equity ratio has increased due to significant growth in total debt. While this suggests potential leverage risks, the overall financial structure remains stable with adequate stockholders' equity to support business operations.

Cash Flow

Neutral

There is a noticeable decline in free cash flow in 2024, which raises concerns about the company's ability to generate cash from operations. The absence of operating cash flow data for 2024 limits detailed analysis, but previous years showed robust free cash flow and operating efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	390.00M	374.20M	329.41M	258.88M	235.51M	115.02M
Gross Profit	246.50M	230.40M	202.74M	224.37M	148.75M	81.83M
EBITDA	173.18M	179.91M	146.36M	132.81M	130.93M	72.81M
Net Income	72.70M	73.40M	118.40M	92.96M	122.48M	62.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.28B	1.22B	1.01B	976.24M	761.32M	107.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	175.40M	92.40M	33.20M	312.37M	167.13M	23.98M
Total Debt	214.75M	250.41M	15.84M	16.09M	7.86M	1.58M
Total Liabilities	718.10M	723.60M	490.24M	462.78M	197.04M	48.13M
Stockholders Equity	549.40M	480.60M	542.49M	552.79M	564.28M	57.31M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	198.33M	137.66M	141.71M	74.34M	105.72M	52.03M
Operating Cash Flow	204.08M	145.95M	156.72M	81.05M	107.56M	52.70M
Investing Cash Flow	68.65M	25.31M	62.17M	-189.35M	-284.23M	23.51M
Financing Cash Flow	-260.49M	-151.65M	-229.63M	118.55M	177.89M	-66.24M

Patria Investments Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price13.42

Price Trends

50DMA

13.60

Negative

100DMA

12.56

Positive

200DMA

11.99

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.06

Positive

RSI

49.02

Neutral

STOCH

43.64

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.48, below the 50-day MA of 13.60, and above the 200-day MA of 11.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAX.

Patria Investments Risk Analysis

Patria Investments disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Patria Investments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

Climate change can create transition risks, physical risks and other risks that could adversely affect us. Q4, 2023

Patria Investments Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VRTS	74 Outperform	$1.35B	9.74	16.46%	4.46%	0.66%	36.96%
GSBD	71 Outperform	$1.30B	9.11	9.36%	15.34%	-55.16%	47.09%
AMTD	70 Outperform	$1.12B	1.46	11.11%	―	―	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.84B	12.03	10.32%	3.73%	9.70%	0.76%
PAX	68 Neutral	$2.12B	28.49	13.60%	4.45%	22.92%	-40.61%
NMFC	65 Neutral	$1.11B	13.77	6.18%	12.52%	39.05%	-32.62%
PSEC	58 Neutral	$1.60B	―	-9.48%	19.66%	-54.81%	-472.20%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

PAX

Patria Investments

13.47

2.50

22.79%

NMFC

New Mountain Finance

10.54

-0.42

-3.83%

PSEC

Prospect Capital

2.90

-1.63

-35.98%

VRTS

Virtus Investment Partners

200.54

-1.45

-0.72%

GSBD

Goldman Sachs BDC

11.42

-0.68

-5.62%

AMTD

AMTD IDEA Group

1.04

-0.25

-19.38%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 23, 2025