Patria Investments Ltd. (PAX)
NASDAQ:PAX
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Patria Investments
(NASDAQ:PAX)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(4.87% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/07/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial fundamentals (strong cash generation and healthy profitability with manageable leverage) and a constructive earnings update with reaffirmed FRE guidance and strong fundraising/AUM growth. Offsetting factors include mixed technicals (still below longer-term moving averages) and a reduced/shifted outlook for performance-fee (carry) realization, while valuation is supportive due to a reasonable P/E and a strong dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Fundraising Momentum
Large, sustained fundraising builds a durable, recurring fee base and increases scale for fee-generating products. A consistent pipeline and quarter-over-quarter inflows provide visibility into future management fees, support FRE guidance, and enable investments in higher-return strategies over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Carry / PRE Realization Delays
Delayed and lower-than-originally-expected performance fee realizations reduce upside to FRE and distributable earnings. Slower carry timing compresses potential surplus cash flows and heightens reliance on base fees, limiting near-term earnings acceleration and making long‑term FRE growth more dependent on new fundraising and fee mix.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Fundraising Momentum
Large, sustained fundraising builds a durable, recurring fee base and increases scale for fee-generating products. A consistent pipeline and quarter-over-quarter inflows provide visibility into future management fees, support FRE guidance, and enable investments in higher-return strategies over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Patria Investments (PAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.79B
Dividend Yield3.78%
Average Volume (3M)929.97K
Price to Earnings (P/E)217.9
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth3.28%
EPS Growth-3.07%
CountryUS
Employees577
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.54
Shares Outstanding68,448,420
10 Day Avg. Volume1,295,817
30 Day Avg. Volume929,969
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.97
Price to Book (P/B)4.10
Price to Sales (P/S)6.54
P/FCF Ratio9.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.33Price Target Upside22.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$423.66M
Patria Investments Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm focused on investing in Latin America. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investm...
How the Company Makes Money
Patria Investments primarily makes money by earning fees for managing alternative investment funds and related vehicles. Its core revenue streams typically include: (1) management fees (or “base fees”) charged as a percentage of assets under manag...
Patria Investments Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely constructive operational and financial picture: significant fundraising momentum, strong fee-earning AUM growth (31% YoY), solid fee revenue (+20% YoY) and FRE growth (+19% YoY), successful long-term debt issuance, and strong investment performance in core strategies. Offsetting these positives are timing delays in performance-related earnings (PRE) and carry realization, DPI and exit challenges in older buyout vintages (Fund IV and V), and near-term expense and mix-driven margin headwinds (1Q FRE margin of 54.6% vs long-term target 58%–60%). Management reiterated full-year FRE guidance and outlined a credible path to margin expansion and continued fundraising, but some upside from carry is now expected later than previously guided.Positive Updates
Strong Fundraising Momentum
Raised $2.1 billion in 1Q26, keeping the firm on track for its full-year $7.0 billion fundraising guidance with upside potential to exceed the 2025 record of $7.7 billion.
Negative Updates
Carry / PRE Realization Delays and Reduced Near‑term Expectations
Cumulative PRE target for 4Q24–4Q27 was originally $120M–$140M; after generating ~$62M through 1Q26, management now expects cumulative PRE of ~$80M–$100M in that period with material carry (e.g., Private Active Fund VI with ~$237M net accrued carry) likely to realize beyond 2027—a timing delay vs prior expectations.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Fundraising Momentum
Raised $2.1 billion in 1Q26, keeping the firm on track for its full-year $7.0 billion fundraising guidance with upside potential to exceed the 2025 record of $7.7 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reaffirmed full‑year fee‑related earnings (FRE) guidance of $225–$245 million (or $1.42–$1.54 per share) and a 2027 FRE target of $260–$290 million after reporting Q1 fee revenues of ~$92.6 million, FRE of ~$50.5–$51 million (FRE margin 54.6%), and distributable earnings of $42.4 million ($0.27 per share, +14% YoY); Q1 fundraising was $2.1 billion (credit >$925M, infrastructure >$545M, private equity $275M, GPMS ~$265M including a $139M first close) keeping the firm on track to a $7.0 billion 2026 fundraising target with upside vs. the $7.7 billion 2025 record. Fee‑earning AUM reached $45.8 billion (pro forma $47.5 billion), +12% QoQ and +31% YoY (including ~$4.9 billion from Solis and three Brazilian REIT acquisitions), with pending fee AUM up ~17% to $3.3 billion and permanent capital of $10.7 billion (~23% of fee‑earning AUM); last‑12‑month management fee rate ~87 bps. Capital management highlights: $350 million fixed‑rate debt placed (avg. cost 6.4%, avg. duration 8.5 years), pro forma net debt/FRE ~0.8x (target ≤1x), share count ~159.1 million (893k shares repurchased for $12.7M plus 840k TRS). PRE expectations for the 4Q24–4Q27 period were revised from $120–$140M to ~$80–$100M (≈$62M realized through 1Q26; Infrastructure Fund III net accrued carry ~$19M; Private Active Fund VI net accrued carry ~$237M), and management reiterated a long‑term FRE margin target of 58%–60% and stock‑based comp of ~10%–11% of fee revenues for 2026–2027.Patria Investments Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 383.80M | 374.20M | 327.62M | 258.88M | 235.51M |
| Gross Profit | 369.20M | 323.72M | 288.88M | 224.05M | 220.88M |
| EBITDA | 131.30M | 133.22M | 146.36M | 125.46M | 131.35M |
| Net Income | 85.60M | 71.88M | 118.40M | 92.96M | 122.48M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.50B | 1.21B | 1.01B | 976.24M | 761.32M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 88.71M | 38.37M | 33.20M | 72.06M | 167.13M |
| Total Debt | 198.68M | 250.41M | 15.84M | 16.09M | 7.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 861.69M | 715.17M | 490.24M | 462.78M | 197.04M |
| Stockholders Equity | 611.75M | 481.08M | 542.49M | 552.79M | 564.28M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 258.31M | 137.66M | 141.71M | 74.34M | 105.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 268.87M | 145.95M | 156.72M | 81.05M | 107.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 2.30M | 25.31M | 62.17M | -189.35M | -284.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -254.46M | -151.65M | -229.63M | 118.55M | 177.89M |
Patria Investments Technical Analysis
Negative
13.35
Price Trends
11.99
Negative
13.31
Negative
13.70
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.37
Positive
36.87
Neutral
8.53
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.00, above the 50-day MA of 11.99, and below the 200-day MA of 13.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PAX.
Patria Investments Risk Analysis
Patria Investments disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Patria Investments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Climate change can create transition risks, physical risks and other risks that could adversely affect us. Q4, 2023
Patria Investments Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $2.95B | 10.37 | 71.27% | 8.72% | 9.72% | 8.92% | |
74 Outperform | $653.95M | 8.17 | 22.87% | 4.56% | 59.28% | 44.87% | |
70 Outperform | $1.79B | 217.90 | 12.14% | 3.78% | 3.28% | -3.07% | |
69 Neutral | $858.86M | 59.32 | 6.57% | 13.18% | 2.31% | -35.07% | |
69 Neutral | $2.11B | 27.35 | 614.24% | 3.91% | 5.42% | 143.26% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
52 Neutral | $1.00B | -18.33 | 5.14% | 17.34% | 14.92% | 48.21% |
* Financial Sector Average
PAX
Patria Investments
11.11
-0.97
-8.01%
APAM
Artisan Partners
36.45
-1.54
-4.05%
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
8.91
-0.34
-3.71%
BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance
13.24
-0.17
-1.26%
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor
10.43
-1.60
-13.33%
VINP
Vinci Partners Investments
10.34
1.15
12.48%
Patria Investments Corporate Events
Patria Investments posts strong Q1 2026 earnings with 19% FRE growth
May 7, 2026
Patria Investments Limited, a global alternative asset manager listed on Nasdaq as PAX, operates across infrastructure, credit, real estate, private equity, GP solutions and public equities, targeting mid‑market opportunities in resilient se...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.