Patria Investments (PAX)
NASDAQ:PAX
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Patria Investments
(NASDAQ:PAX)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
â–²(30.33% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/04/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong cash flow conversion and low leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook with reiterated fundraising and FRE targets. These positives are tempered by weak current technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and moderate valuation, while performance-fee timing volatility and other near-term risks from the earnings call cap upside.
Positive Factors
Scale of AUM
Reaching over $50bn AUM is a durable competitive advantage: it deepens the recurring fee base, improves fundraising credibility, and enables scale-driven cost efficiencies. Larger AUM supports diversified product distribution and long-term fee revenue resilience across cycles.
Negative Factors
Lumpy Performance Fees
Absence of carried interest in a quarter underscores the inherent volatility of performance fees. Heavy reliance on realization timing makes earnings and distributable cash more episodic, complicating forecasting and increasing sensitivity to exit markets over multi-quarter horizons.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale of AUM
Reaching over $50bn AUM is a durable competitive advantage: it deepens the recurring fee base, improves fundraising credibility, and enables scale-driven cost efficiencies. Larger AUM supports diversified product distribution and long-term fee revenue resilience across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Patria Investments (PAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.02B
Dividend Yield3.78%
Average Volume (3M)974.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.3
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth22.09%
EPS Growth58.98%
CountryUS
Employees577
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.50
Shares Outstanding66,521,570
10 Day Avg. Volume998,968
30 Day Avg. Volume974,248
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.97
Price to Book (P/B)4.06
Price to Sales (P/S)6.54
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.50Price Target Upside46.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$429.17M
Patria Investments Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm focused on investing in Latin America. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investm...
How the Company Makes Money
Patria Investments generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees associated with its investment funds. Management fees are typically a percentage of the assets under management (AUM) and provide a steady income stream re...
Patria Investments Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple clear positives — record fundraising ($7.7B), robust FEAUM growth (+24% YoY to $40.8B and ~$47.4B pro forma), FRE growth (+19% YoY to ~$202.5M), margin expansion, strategic acquisitions expanding scale in credit and REITs, stronger balance sheet metrics (net debt / FRE 0.5x), and a higher dividend policy. Offsetting these strengths are near-term challenges: a notable decline in net accrued performance fees (Q3→Q4), underperforming private equity vintages that lowered carry, elevated one-time M&A transaction costs, and some litigation exposure. Management articulated confidence in hitting 2026–2027 FRE and fundraising targets while acknowledging PRE timing risk. Overall, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, with most risks framed as timing or one-off items rather than structural weaknesses.Positive Updates
Record Fundraising
Organic fundraising of $1.7B in Q4 and a record $7.7B for full year 2025, exceeding the original $6.0B target by >$1.0B and surpassing the revised $6.6B target; 2025 fundraising exceeded initial guidance by ~30%.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Accrued Performance Fees
Net accrued performance fees fell from $402M in Q3 2025 to $249M in Q4 2025, primarily because Private Equity Buyout Fund V fell out of carry due to FX and public holding price moves; performance fees remain volatile and timing is uncertain.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Fundraising
Organic fundraising of $1.7B in Q4 and a record $7.7B for full year 2025, exceeding the original $6.0B target by >$1.0B and surpassing the revised $6.6B target; 2025 fundraising exceeded initial guidance by ~30%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated a $7.0B organic fundraising target for 2026 and $8.0B for 2027 (3‑year organic plan $21B), after reporting Q4 organic fundraising of $1.7B and FY‑2025 $7.7B; fee‑earning AUM was $40.8B (pro forma $47.4B) with $2.9B pending and a year‑end 2027 AUM goal of $70B. Fee‑related earnings guidance is $225–245M in 2026 ($1.42–1.54/share) and $260–290M in 2027 ($1.60–1.80/share); Q4 FRE was $64.2M ($0.41) and FY‑2025 FRE $202.5M ($1.28), with an FRE margin objective of 58–60% (Q4 margin 63.6%). Performance‑related earnings guidance remains $120–140M from Q4‑2024 through end‑2027 (already realized $62M; ~ $20M expected in 2026, mainly from Infra Fund III). Capital‑management and balance sheet guidance: share count to average 158–160M (TRS 1.5M to settle by Q3‑26), up to 7M shares authorized for buyback (target ~3M to offset dilution), declared dividend policy $0.65/share for 2026 (Q4 declared $0.15; expected 2026 dividend ~$100M), net debt ≈ $105M (net‑debt/FRE 0.5), unused debt capacity > $100M (total capacity ≈ $235M), deferred M&A payments ≈ $110M and deferred contingent payments ≈ $100M. Other guideposts: annual tax rate ≈ 10% (Q4 excl. PRE 4.2%, FY excl. PRE 6.3%), management fee rate trending toward ~90bps (trailing 4‑q avg 92bps), 2025 organic net inflows ≈ $2.4B (~7% organic growth), 22% of FEAUM in permanent capital (~$9.1B), ~90% of AUM with no/limited redemptions, and estimated 2026 cash generation of roughly $220M (midpoint FRE + expected PRE).Patria Investments Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 383.80M | 374.20M | 327.62M | 258.88M | 235.51M |
| Gross Profit | 369.20M | 323.72M | 288.88M | 224.05M | 220.88M |
| EBITDA | 131.30M | 133.22M | 146.36M | 125.46M | 131.35M |
| Net Income | 85.60M | 71.88M | 118.40M | 92.96M | 122.48M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.49B | 1.21B | 1.01B | 976.24M | 761.32M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 90.10M | 38.37M | 33.20M | 72.06M | 167.13M |
| Total Debt | 174.90M | 250.41M | 15.84M | 16.09M | 7.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 850.60M | 715.17M | 490.24M | 462.78M | 197.04M |
| Stockholders Equity | 618.20M | 481.08M | 542.49M | 552.79M | 564.28M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 137.66M | 141.71M | 74.34M | 105.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 145.95M | 156.72M | 81.05M | 107.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 25.31M | 62.17M | -189.35M | -284.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -151.65M | -229.63M | 118.55M | 177.89M |
Patria Investments Technical Analysis
Negative
12.66
Price Trends
13.15
Negative
14.37
Negative
14.06
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.21
Negative
56.88
Neutral
89.69
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.73, below the 50-day MA of 13.15, and below the 200-day MA of 14.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.69 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PAX.
Patria Investments Risk Analysis
Patria Investments disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Patria Investments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Climate change can create transition risks, physical risks and other risks that could adversely affect us. Q4, 2023
Patria Investments Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $668.50M | 21.23 | 15.08% | 4.56% | 81.45% | -26.75% | |
72 Outperform | $816.05M | 9.13 | 8.72% | 13.18% | -26.08% | -27.65% | |
69 Neutral | $2.02B | 29.32 | 14.71% | 3.78% | 22.09% | 58.98% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $1.02B | 8.99 | 8.03% | 17.34% | -16.58% | 65.24% | |
65 Neutral | $2.95B | 9.21 | 73.54% | 8.72% | 5.46% | 2.10% | |
62 Neutral | $1.96B | 8.56 | -863.72% | 3.91% | 18.33% | 109.57% |
* Financial Sector Average
PAX
Patria Investments
12.66
3.08
32.15%
APAM
Artisan Partners
36.57
4.80
15.12%
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
9.03
0.57
6.71%
BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance
12.58
0.16
1.26%
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor
9.70
-2.30
-19.14%
VINP
Vinci Partners Investments
10.57
1.87
21.45%
Patria Investments Corporate Events
Patria Investments Posts Record 2025 Fundraising, Expands Platform With Strategic Acquisitions
Feb 3, 2026
On February 3, 2026, Patria Investments reported unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting strong fundraising and earnings growth that capped what management described as a very successful year. T...
Patria Investments to Acquire WP Global Partners, Expanding U.S. Private Equity Footprint
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2025, Patria Investments announced an agreement to acquire WP Global Partners, a U.S.-based private equity solutions manager focused on the lower-middle-market, in an all-cash transaction. The deal will add roughly US$1.8 billion in...
Patria Investments Reshapes Corporate Structure, Names Global COO and Successor CFO
Dec 19, 2025
On December 19, 2025, Patria Investments Limited announced a restructuring of its corporate organization to sharpen its global operating model and support growth at scale, including the creation of a Global Chief Operating Officer role. The firm a...
Patria Investments Acquires RBR Gestão, Strengthening REIT Leadership in Brazil
Dec 11, 2025
On December 11, 2025, Patria Investments announced its acquisition of RBR Gestão, which manages approximately US$ 1.5 billion in listed Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in Brazil. This acquisition positions Patria as the leading manager ...
Patria Investments Reports Increased Revenue Amid Rising Expenses
Dec 11, 2025
On December 10, 2025, Patria Investments Limited released its unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the nine-month period ending September 30, 2025. The report highlights a notable increase in net revenue from services,...
Patria Investments Acquires Majority Stake in Solis Investimentos
Nov 26, 2025
On November 26, 2025, Patria Investments announced the acquisition of a 51% stake in Solis Investimentos, a Brazilian firm specializing in CLOs. This strategic move is expected to increase Patria’s Credit FEAUM by over 40%, enhancing its pos...
Patria Investments Surpasses $50 Billion in Assets Under Management
Nov 4, 2025
On November 4, 2025, Patria Investments announced its third-quarter earnings results, highlighting significant growth in assets under management, which surpassed $50 billion, marking a milestone since its IPO in 2021. The firm reported $46.9 milli...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.