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Patria Investments (PAX)
NASDAQ:PAX
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Patria Investments (PAX) AI Stock Analysis

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PAX

Patria Investments

(NASDAQ:PAX)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(10.96% Upside)
Patria Investments receives a strong overall score driven by robust financial performance and positive earnings call highlights. The company's impressive fundraising achievements and asset growth, along with a healthy balance sheet and strong cash flow, contribute significantly to the score. While the stock's valuation is relatively high, the positive technical indicators and dividend yield provide additional support.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates robust market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial health.
Asset Growth
Surpassing $50 billion in AUM reflects strong fundraising capabilities and market confidence, enhancing the firm's competitive position.
Cash Flow Performance
Strong cash flow growth supports operational flexibility and investment capacity, crucial for sustaining long-term growth.
Negative Factors
Operational Efficiency
A decline in operational efficiency could impact profitability, suggesting the need for cost management improvements.
Cash and Cash Equivalents
Reduced cash reserves may limit liquidity and flexibility, potentially affecting the company's ability to respond to market opportunities.
Performance-Related Earnings
Lack of performance-related earnings could indicate challenges in achieving investment benchmarks, affecting fee income potential.

Patria Investments (PAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Patria Investments Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPatria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm focused on investing in Latin America. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds. Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.
How the Company Makes MoneyPatria Investments generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees associated with its investment funds. Management fees are typically a percentage of the assets under management (AUM) and provide a steady income stream regardless of fund performance. Performance fees, on the other hand, are earned when the funds exceed specified return benchmarks, aligning the company's interests with those of its investors. Additionally, Patria may earn advisory fees from investment banking services and transactions involving mergers and acquisitions. Strategic partnerships with local and international investors, along with a strong track record of successful investments, further contribute to its earnings by attracting new capital and enhancing investment performance.

Patria Investments Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in fundraising and asset growth, reflecting strong business performance and strategic execution. Despite the absence of performance-related earnings in Q3, the company is poised for strong future performance with expected monetizations and continued fundraising success.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Assets Under Management Milestone
Patria's assets under management exceeded $50 billion at the end of Q3 2025, over 3.5 times higher than at the time of IPO in 2021.
Strong Fundraising Performance
Organic fundraising surpassed $1.5 billion in Q3 2025, with year-to-date fundraising reaching $6 billion. The company is on track to exceed the full-year target of $6.6 billion.
Fee-Earning Asset Growth
Fee-earning assets under management grew to $38.8 billion in Q3 2025, up 4% sequentially and 14% year-over-year, reflecting strong fundraising and lower redemption rates.
Fee-Related Earnings Increase
Fee-related earnings for Q3 2025 were $49.5 million, representing 7% sequential growth and 22% year-over-year growth.
Distributable Earnings Growth
Distributable earnings in Q3 2025 reached $46.9 million, up 22% sequentially and 31% year-over-year.
Successful Infrastructure Fundraising
Infrastructure Fund V and related vehicles closed at $2.9 billion, almost 40% higher than the previous vintage.
Credit Business Outperformance
The credit business fundraising surpassed total 2024 fundraising by almost 15% as of Q3 2025, reaching $1.6 billion.
Negative Updates
No Performance-Related Earnings in Q3
The company did not generate performance-related earnings in Q3 2025, although monetization events post-quarter are expected to contribute $15 million in Q4.
Company Guidance
In Patria's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, CEO Alex Saigh highlighted significant financial achievements and future projections. The company reported assets under management (AUM) exceeding $50 billion, a 3.5-fold increase since their IPO in 2021. Organic fundraising in the third quarter totaled $1.5 billion, contributing to a year-to-date total of $6 billion, with expectations to exceed the full-year fundraising target of $6.6 billion. Fee-earning AUM grew to $38.8 billion, a 4% increase sequentially and 14% year-over-year, while fee-related earnings reached $49.5 million, marking a 22% year-over-year increase. Distributable earnings were $46.9 million, up 22% sequentially and 31% year-over-year. Patria also projected optimism for future growth, targeting $14 billion combined fundraising for 2025 and 2026, and introduced a 2026 fee-related earnings target range of $225 million to $245 million, indicating a 15% year-over-year growth. The company announced a $0.65 per share dividend for 2026, emphasizing their commitment to shareholder returns.

Patria Investments Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Patria Investments demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability with a solid gross profit margin of 63.47% and a net profit margin of 20.68%. The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28. Cash flow performance is impressive with a free cash flow growth rate of 32.92% TTM. However, there is a slight decline in operational efficiency as indicated by a decrease in EBIT margin.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Patria Investments demonstrates strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.92% and consistent profitability, as evidenced by a solid gross profit margin of 63.47% and a net profit margin of 20.68%. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased to 39.24% from 40.88% in the previous year, indicating some pressure on operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28, reflecting prudent financial management. Return on equity is strong at 15.78%, although it has decreased from previous levels. The equity ratio remains robust at 43.87%, suggesting a stable capital structure.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Patria Investments shows impressive cash flow performance with a free cash flow growth rate of 32.92% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.72, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.97, highlighting strong cash conversion.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue405.83M374.20M327.62M258.88M235.51M115.02M
Gross Profit326.84M323.72M288.88M224.05M220.88M104.39M
EBITDA164.47M133.22M146.36M125.46M131.35M73.53M
Net Income106.27M71.88M118.40M92.96M122.48M62.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.33B1.21B1.01B976.24M761.32M107.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments52.30M38.37M33.20M72.06M167.13M23.98M
Total Debt146.30M250.41M15.84M16.09M7.86M1.58M
Total Liabilities723.00M715.17M490.24M462.78M197.04M48.13M
Stockholders Equity586.80M481.08M542.49M552.79M564.28M57.31M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow195.31M137.66M141.71M74.34M105.72M52.03M
Operating Cash Flow202.89M145.95M156.72M81.05M107.56M52.70M
Investing Cash Flow-39.29M25.31M62.17M-189.35M-284.23M23.51M
Financing Cash Flow-174.49M-151.65M-229.63M118.55M177.89M-66.24M

Patria Investments Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price14.42
Price Trends
50DMA
14.51
Positive
100DMA
14.03
Positive
200DMA
12.84
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.01
Positive
RSI
54.06
Neutral
STOCH
36.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.65, below the 50-day MA of 14.51, and above the 200-day MA of 12.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAX.

Patria Investments Risk Analysis

Patria Investments disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Patria Investments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Climate change can create transition risks, physical risks and other risks that could adversely affect us. Q4, 2023

Patria Investments Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$2.30B26.5915.46%4.07%26.65%-1.26%
73
Outperform
$753.24M24.6610.40%5.04%81.45%-26.75%
71
Outperform
$1.12B8.588.75%16.85%-16.58%65.24%
69
Neutral
$3.36B11.5862.04%8.68%5.46%2.10%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
63
Neutral
$925.67M9.928.18%12.61%-26.08%-27.65%
59
Neutral
$2.12B39.514.12%18.33%109.57%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PAX
Patria Investments
14.74
3.14
27.07%
APAM
Artisan Partners
41.82
-2.98
-6.65%
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
9.92
-1.08
-9.82%
BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance
14.27
-0.86
-5.68%
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor
10.90
-1.08
-9.02%
VINP
Vinci Partners Investments
12.18
2.58
26.88%

Patria Investments Corporate Events

Patria Investments Surpasses $50 Billion in Assets Under Management
Nov 4, 2025

On November 4, 2025, Patria Investments announced its third-quarter earnings results, highlighting significant growth in assets under management, which surpassed $50 billion, marking a milestone since its IPO in 2021. The firm reported $46.9 million in distributable earnings for the quarter, a 31% increase from the previous year, and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on December 12, 2025. This growth reflects Patria’s strong fundraising momentum and its ability to exceed its full-year fundraising target, reinforcing its confidence in achieving its 2025 and future objectives.

Patria Investments Releases Mid-2025 Financial Statements
Sep 26, 2025

Patria Investments Limited released its unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the six-month period ending June 30, 2025. The report highlights a decrease in cash and cash equivalents from $33,418,000 at the end of 2024 to $28,539,000 by mid-2025, alongside an increase in short-term investments and client funds on deposit. These financial shifts indicate strategic adjustments in asset management, which could impact the company’s liquidity and investment strategies. The financial statements provide stakeholders with insights into the company’s operational adjustments and financial health during the first half of 2025.

Patria Investments Announces AGM Results and Board Appointment
Sep 10, 2025

On September 10, 2025, Patria Investments Limited held its annual general meeting where shareholders approved the financial statements and auditor’s report for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024. Additionally, Daniel Rizardi Sorrentino was appointed as a new member of the Board of Directors, reflecting a strategic move to strengthen the company’s governance and leadership.

Patria Investments Announces 2025 AGM and Board Appointment
Aug 20, 2025

Patria Investments Limited has announced its Annual General Meeting (AGM) scheduled for September 10, 2025. The meeting will be held virtually and at their offices in Grand Cayman. Key resolutions to be voted on include the approval of the company’s financial statements for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, and the appointment of Daniel Rizardi Sorrentino to the Board of Directors. The AGM is significant for stakeholders as it will determine the company’s financial direction and leadership structure.

Patria Investments Announces Board Changes with New Interim Appointment
Aug 20, 2025

On August 20, 2025, Patria Investments announced a change in its Board of Directors with the resignation of Peter Paul Lorenço Estermann and the appointment of Daniel Rizardi Sorrentino as an interim Board member. Sorrentino, who has been with Patria since 2001 and currently serves as the Global Head of Commercial, will maintain his existing role while serving on the Board. This change reflects Patria’s ongoing strategic adjustments to strengthen its leadership and operational capabilities.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2025