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Patria Investments
(NASDAQ:PAX)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(11.11% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/03/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financials (strong cash generation and still-healthy profitability) and a constructive earnings-call outlook (reaffirmed FRE guidance with strong fundraising/AUM momentum and improving fee visibility). These positives are moderated by weak technical trend signals (price below key moving averages) and a valuation that is supported by a high dividend yield but not especially cheap on earnings (P/E ~23).
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Free cash flow has reliably tracked reported earnings (roughly 0.88–0.98x) with TTM OCF and FCF at healthy absolute levels. That durable cash conversion supports sustained distributions, buybacks and reinvestment in growth initiatives, improving long-term financial resilience.
Negative Factors
Increased Financial Leverage
Leverage has stepped up materially versus prior years, raising interest expense and reducing balance sheet flexibility. Higher debt makes the firm more sensitive to earnings volatility and could constrain opportunistic M&A, buybacks or dividend support if performance weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Free cash flow has reliably tracked reported earnings (roughly 0.88–0.98x) with TTM OCF and FCF at healthy absolute levels. That durable cash conversion supports sustained distributions, buybacks and reinvestment in growth initiatives, improving long-term financial resilience.
Read all positive factors
Patria Investments (PAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.75B
Dividend Yield5.66%
Average Volume (3M)811.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.2
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth3.01%
EPS Growth-3.28%
CountryUS
Employees548
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding68,448,420
10 Day Avg. Volume820,757
30 Day Avg. Volume811,634
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.98
Price to Book (P/B)4.10
Price to Sales (P/S)6.54
P/FCF Ratio9.72
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.00Price Target Upside38.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$425.72M
Patria Investments Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm. It specializes in investments in private equity, secondary direct and indirect and venture capital with focus in middle market, buyout and growth capital investments. It seek...
How the Company Makes Money
Patria Investments primarily makes money by earning fees for managing alternative investment funds and related vehicles. Its core revenue streams typically include: (1) management fees (or “base fees”) charged as a percentage of assets under manag...
Patria Investments Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted robust fundraising, substantial AUM growth, strong fee and distributable earnings growth, and outperformance across key strategies (credit, infrastructure, GPMS), providing clear visibility into future fee growth. Offsetting this, legacy private equity vintages required markdowns, earnings margin was modestly compressed in 2026 due to lower-margin acquisitions and elevated near-term transaction/integration costs, and there were one-time equity impacts from put-option obligations. On balance, the positive commercial momentum and recurring fee growth materially outweigh the contained, largely explainable challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Fundraising Momentum
Raised $2.3 billion in Q2; year-to-date fundraising $4.5 billion. On track to exceed 2026 target of $7 billion and potentially surpass 2025 record of $7.7 billion and 3-year target of $21 billion.
Negative Updates
Private Equity Vintage Underperformance and Markdowns
Older private equity Funds IV and V (together < $2 billion AUM) underperformed and were marked down this quarter due to prolonged high interest rates in Brazil, post-COVID macro adversities and sector-specific shocks; Fund IV generated no management fees for the last 2 years and both Funds IV & V have no accrued performance fees since Q4'25.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Fundraising Momentum
Raised $2.3 billion in Q2; year-to-date fundraising $4.5 billion. On track to exceed 2026 target of $7 billion and potentially surpass 2025 record of $7.7 billion and 3-year target of $21 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Patria maintained confident guidance: Q2 fundraising was $2.3bn (YTD $4.5bn) toward a full‑year fundraising target of $7.0bn (2025 record $7.7bn) and a 2025–2027 target of $21bn; fee‑earning AUM stood at $48.9bn (+≈7% q/q, +32% y/y) with $4.0bn of pending fee‑earning AUM (+≈20% q/q) and ~$11bn of permanent capital (~22% of fee‑earning AUM). Q2 fee‑related earnings (FRE) were $57.1m (+13% q/q, +24% y/y), YTD FRE $108m, and management reiterated 2026 FRE guidance of $225–245m ($1.42–1.54/sh) and a 2027 FRE target of $260–290m ($1.60–1.80/sh); FRE margin was 54% in Q2 (vs 54.6%) and is now expected modestly below the 58–60% 2026 target but to return to 58–60% in 2027. Other notable metrics: total fee revenues Q2 ~$105.8m (+30% y/y), distributable earnings Q2 $50.7m (or $0.32/sh, +31% y/y), LTM average management fee ≈86bps, Q2 effective tax rate ~9%, transaction costs $11m in Q2 (expected ~$7–8m in Q3/Q4 and to fall significantly in 2027), $350m bond issued, share count 159.5m (target 158–160m), TRS repurchases 1.5m shares ($18.3m) and Solis/credit fundraising momentum (Solis >$500m raised; credit >$650m in Q2, YTD ~$1.6bn).Patria Investments Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
77
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 401.58M | 383.80M | 374.20M | 327.62M | 258.88M | 235.51M |
| Gross Profit | 340.05M | 369.20M | 323.72M | 288.88M | 224.05M | 220.88M |
| EBITDA | 155.87M | 131.30M | 133.22M | 146.36M | 125.46M | 131.35M |
| Net Income | 72.15M | 85.60M | 71.88M | 118.40M | 92.96M | 122.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.78B | 1.50B | 1.21B | 1.01B | 976.24M | 761.32M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 86.90M | 88.71M | 38.37M | 33.20M | 72.06M | 167.13M |
| Total Debt | 278.31M | 198.68M | 250.41M | 15.84M | 16.09M | 7.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.16B | 861.69M | 715.17M | 490.24M | 462.78M | 197.04M |
| Stockholders Equity | 556.58M | 611.75M | 481.08M | 542.49M | 552.79M | 564.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 185.76M | 258.31M | 137.66M | 141.71M | 74.34M | 105.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 210.21M | 268.87M | 145.95M | 156.72M | 81.05M | 107.56M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -50.25M | 2.30M | 25.31M | 62.17M | -189.35M | -284.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -147.33M | -254.46M | -151.65M | -229.63M | 118.55M | 177.89M |
Patria Investments Technical Analysis
Positive
10.80
Price Trends
11.17
Positive
11.58
Negative
13.06
Negative
Market Momentum
0.01
Negative
53.06
Neutral
68.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.04, below the 50-day MA of 11.17, and below the 200-day MA of 13.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAX.
Patria Investments Risk Analysis
Patria Investments disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Patria Investments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Climate change can create transition risks, physical risks and other risks that could adversely affect us. Q4, 2023
Patria Investments Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $3.18B | 9.25 | 70.91% | 10.07% | 7.40% | 9.66% | |
72 Outperform | $2.52B | 13.57 | 614.24% | 3.85% | 5.42% | 143.26% | |
72 Outperform | $645.99M | 12.09 | 22.87% | 6.58% | 46.25% | 88.59% | |
70 Outperform | $1.75B | 23.21 | 12.14% | 5.67% | 3.01% | -3.28% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $805.67M | 10.87 | 6.57% | 15.29% | 2.31% | -35.07% | |
62 Neutral | $969.22M | 13.45 | 5.14% | 17.78% | 14.92% | 48.21% |
* Financial Sector Average
PAX
Patria Investments
11.23
-1.93
-14.65%
APAM
Artisan Partners
43.05
1.83
4.44%
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
9.09
-0.32
-3.39%
BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance
12.94
-0.04
-0.31%
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor
13.48
1.96
17.06%
VINP
Vinci Partners Investments
9.92
0.98
10.99%
Patria Investments Corporate Events
Patria Investments Posts Strong Q2 2026 Earnings and Fundraising Momentum
Jul 31, 2026
Patria Investments reported unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, showing strong growth in fundraising and fee‑related performance. Management highlighted that the quarter’s performance keeps the firm ...
Patria Investments Reports Higher Q1 2026 Revenue and Expanding Balance Sheet
Jul 28, 2026
Patria Investments Limited, a Cayman Islands-based alternative asset manager, reported unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, in a Form 6-K filed in July 2026. Total assets rose to $1.78 bi...
Patria Investments posts strong Q1 2026 earnings with 19% FRE growth
May 7, 2026
Patria Investments Limited, a global alternative asset manager listed on Nasdaq as PAX, operates across infrastructure, credit, real estate, private equity, GP solutions and public equities, targeting mid‑market opportunities in resilient se...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.