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Patria Investments (PAX)
NASDAQ:PAX
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Patria Investments (PAX) AI Stock Analysis

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PAX

Patria Investments

(NASDAQ:PAX)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(9.81% Upside)
Patria Investments receives a strong overall score driven by robust financial performance and positive earnings call highlights. The company's impressive fundraising achievements and growth in fee-related earnings are significant strengths. While the valuation suggests the stock is relatively expensive, the dividend yield offers a compensating factor. Technical indicators support a moderately bullish outlook, contributing to the positive assessment.

Patria Investments (PAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Patria Investments Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPatria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm focused on investing in Latin America. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds. Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.
How the Company Makes MoneyPatria Investments generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees associated with its investment funds. Management fees are typically a percentage of the assets under management (AUM) and provide a steady income stream regardless of fund performance. Performance fees, on the other hand, are earned when the funds exceed specified return benchmarks, aligning the company's interests with those of its investors. Additionally, Patria may earn advisory fees from investment banking services and transactions involving mergers and acquisitions. Strategic partnerships with local and international investors, along with a strong track record of successful investments, further contribute to its earnings by attracting new capital and enhancing investment performance.

Patria Investments Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance in fundraising and fee-related earnings, with significant growth in AUM and successful M&A activities. Despite challenges such as the lack of performance-related earnings in the quarter and potential impacts of U.S. tariffs, the company maintains a positive outlook with increased fundraising targets and strong market positioning.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Fundraising Performance
Patria reported solid fundraising of $1.3 billion in the second quarter, with total fundraising for the first half of the year reaching $4.5 billion, which is 75% of the original $6 billion target for 2025. The company raised its full-year fundraising target to $6.3 billion to $6.6 billion, 5% to 10% higher than the initial target.
Growth in Fee-Related Earnings
Second quarter fee-related earnings were $46.1 million, representing 8% sequential and 17% year-over-year growth. Fee-earning AUM grew 6% sequentially and 20% year-over-year, reaching $48.7 billion.
Successful M&A Activity
Patria completed acquisitions of Brazilian REITs, adding approximately $600 million of high-margin permanent capital fee-earning AUM. The acquisitions were seen as an attractive alternative to fundraising.
Robust Private Equity and Infrastructure Performance
EBITDA at nonpublic private equity portfolio companies rose approximately 25% in local currency over the past year. Infrastructure Fund V reached $2.5 billion of commitments, highlighting strong demand.
Negative Updates
No Performance-Related Earnings
The second quarter did not generate any performance-related earnings. However, the net accrued performance fee balance rose 7% due to the depreciation of the dollar.
Potential Impact of U.S. Tariffs
Concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports. While the economic impact is expected to be marginal, the political implications add uncertainty to the market.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Patria demonstrated solid financial performance and guidance, highlighted by substantial fundraising achievements and positive growth metrics. The company raised a total of $1.3 billion in the quarter, contributing to a first-half fundraising total of approximately $4.5 billion, which is 75% of their original $6 billion target for the year. As a result, Patria has raised its full-year fundraising guidance for 2025 by 5% to 10%, targeting between $6.3 billion and $6.6 billion. Fee-related earnings for the second quarter reached $46.1 million, marking an 8% sequential increase and a 17% year-over-year growth. Total assets under management (AUM) grew to $48.7 billion, with fee-earning AUM increasing by 6% sequentially and 20% year-over-year. The company also noted over $600 million in organic net inflows into fee-earning AUM for the quarter, with an annualized organic growth rate of about 8% since the start of the year. Patria maintained its guidance for fee-related earnings for the full year, with targets set between $200 million and $225 million, reflecting approximately 20% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the range. Distributable earnings for the second quarter were $39 million, up 4% sequentially and 9% year-over-year. The company also highlighted progress in diversifying its investment platform, with notable growth in infrastructure and credit, and acquisitions such as Brazilian REITs enhancing its fee-earning AUM by approximately $600 million.

Patria Investments Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Patria Investments demonstrates strong revenue growth and consistent profitability with a solid gross profit margin of 63.47% and a net profit margin of 20.68%. The balance sheet is healthy with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28, and cash flow performance is impressive with a free cash flow growth rate of 32.92% TTM. However, there is a slight decline in operational efficiency as indicated by a decrease in the EBIT margin.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Patria Investments demonstrates strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.92% and consistent profitability, as evidenced by a solid gross profit margin of 63.47% and a net profit margin of 20.68%. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased to 39.24% from 40.88% in the previous year, indicating some pressure on operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28, reflecting prudent financial management. Return on equity is strong at 15.78%, although it has decreased from previous levels. The equity ratio remains robust at 43.87%, suggesting a stable capital structure.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Patria Investments shows impressive cash flow performance with a free cash flow growth rate of 32.92% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.72, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.97, highlighting strong cash conversion.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue397.39M374.20M327.62M258.88M235.51M115.02M
Gross Profit340.94M323.72M288.88M224.05M220.88M104.39M
EBITDA153.60M133.22M146.36M125.46M131.35M73.53M
Net Income84.23M71.88M118.40M92.96M122.48M62.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.32B1.22B1.01B976.24M761.32M107.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments165.20M38.37M33.20M312.37M167.13M23.98M
Total Debt161.00M250.41M15.84M16.09M7.86M1.58M
Total Liabilities728.30M715.17M490.24M462.78M197.04M48.13M
Stockholders Equity578.20M480.60M542.49M552.79M564.28M57.31M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow263.62M137.66M141.71M74.34M105.72M52.03M
Operating Cash Flow271.29M145.95M156.72M81.05M107.56M52.70M
Investing Cash Flow-39.12M25.31M62.17M-189.35M-284.23M23.51M
Financing Cash Flow-230.64M-151.65M-229.63M118.55M177.89M-66.24M

Patria Investments Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price14.57
Price Trends
50DMA
14.34
Positive
100DMA
13.99
Positive
200DMA
12.66
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.09
Positive
RSI
51.50
Neutral
STOCH
24.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.46, above the 50-day MA of 14.34, and above the 200-day MA of 12.66, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAX.

Patria Investments Risk Analysis

Patria Investments disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Patria Investments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Climate change can create transition risks, physical risks and other risks that could adversely affect us. Q4, 2023

Patria Investments Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$729.21M23.9110.03%5.29%53.35%-24.09%
$2.32B26.8715.46%4.12%26.65%-1.26%
$1.14B8.049.36%16.68%-55.16%47.09%
$3.52B12.1660.44%8.08%5.46%4.44%
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
$912.70M8.469.42%12.79%-3.29%-16.86%
$2.24B81.403.82%15.78%56.27%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PAX
Patria Investments
14.57
3.28
29.05%
APAM
Artisan Partners
43.66
2.55
6.20%
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
9.98
-0.90
-8.27%
BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance
14.07
-0.58
-3.96%
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor
11.51
0.43
3.88%
VINP
Vinci Partners Investments
11.53
1.83
18.87%

Patria Investments Corporate Events

Patria Investments Releases Mid-2025 Financial Statements
Sep 26, 2025

Patria Investments Limited released its unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the six-month period ending June 30, 2025. The report highlights a decrease in cash and cash equivalents from $33,418,000 at the end of 2024 to $28,539,000 by mid-2025, alongside an increase in short-term investments and client funds on deposit. These financial shifts indicate strategic adjustments in asset management, which could impact the company’s liquidity and investment strategies. The financial statements provide stakeholders with insights into the company’s operational adjustments and financial health during the first half of 2025.

Patria Investments Announces AGM Results and Board Appointment
Sep 10, 2025

On September 10, 2025, Patria Investments Limited held its annual general meeting where shareholders approved the financial statements and auditor’s report for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024. Additionally, Daniel Rizardi Sorrentino was appointed as a new member of the Board of Directors, reflecting a strategic move to strengthen the company’s governance and leadership.

Patria Investments Announces 2025 AGM and Board Appointment
Aug 20, 2025

Patria Investments Limited has announced its Annual General Meeting (AGM) scheduled for September 10, 2025. The meeting will be held virtually and at their offices in Grand Cayman. Key resolutions to be voted on include the approval of the company’s financial statements for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, and the appointment of Daniel Rizardi Sorrentino to the Board of Directors. The AGM is significant for stakeholders as it will determine the company’s financial direction and leadership structure.

Patria Investments Announces Board Changes with New Interim Appointment
Aug 20, 2025

On August 20, 2025, Patria Investments announced a change in its Board of Directors with the resignation of Peter Paul Lorenço Estermann and the appointment of Daniel Rizardi Sorrentino as an interim Board member. Sorrentino, who has been with Patria since 2001 and currently serves as the Global Head of Commercial, will maintain his existing role while serving on the Board. This change reflects Patria’s ongoing strategic adjustments to strengthen its leadership and operational capabilities.

Patria Investments Reports Strong Q2 2025 Earnings and Announces Share Repurchase Program
Aug 1, 2025

On August 1, 2025, Patria Investments reported its unaudited second-quarter earnings, highlighting a robust fundraising performance of $1.3 billion, bringing the total for the first half of 2025 to approximately $4.5 billion. The company anticipates exceeding its initial full-year fundraising target by 5%-10%. Patria’s Fee Related Earnings (FRE) for Q2 2025 reached $46 million, marking a 17% year-over-year increase, while the firm’s Fee Earning Assets Under Management (FEAUM) grew by 6% sequentially and 20% year-over-year. Despite potential global economic challenges, Patria remains confident in achieving its 2025 FRE target of $200-$225 million, supported by its diversified platform and organic growth. Additionally, the board authorized a new share repurchase program for up to 3 million Class A common shares, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on enhancing shareholder value.

Patria Investments Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Aug 1, 2025

On July 31, 2025, Patria Investments Limited released its unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the three-month period ending March 31, 2025. The report highlights a growth in net revenue from services, reaching $79.6 million compared to $63.9 million in the same period in 2024. Despite an increase in personnel expenses and financial expenses, the company managed to maintain a net income before income tax of $14.6 million, although this represents a decrease from the previous year’s $20.1 million. The financial results indicate a robust performance in revenue generation, although challenges in managing expenses have impacted profitability.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 19, 2025