Patria Investments (PAX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.09B
• Dividend Yield: 3.78%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 24.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 22.09%
• EPS Growth: 58.98%
• Country: US
• Employees: 577
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.50
• Shares Outstanding: 66,521,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 896,785
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,101,218
• PEG Ratio: 1.97
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.54
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.38
• 1Y Price Target: $18.50
• Price Target Upside: 41.01% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.36
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $434.77M

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.50 ▲(25.76% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/04/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong cash flow conversion and low leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook with reiterated fundraising and FRE targets. These positives are tempered by weak current technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and moderate valuation, while performance-fee timing volatility and other near-term risks from the earnings call cap upside.

Positive Factors

Scale of AUM

Reaching over $50bn AUM is a durable competitive advantage: it deepens the recurring fee base, improves fundraising credibility, and enables scale-driven cost efficiencies. Larger AUM supports diversified product distribution and long-term fee revenue resilience across cycles.

Growing Fee-Earning Base

Sequential and YoY growth in fee-earning AUM and fee-related earnings indicates a more predictable, recurring revenue mix. This reduces reliance on lumpy carried interest, strengthens cash flows from management fees, and supports multi-year revenue visibility critical for an asset manager's long-term model.

Balance Sheet & Cash Conversion

A conservative capital structure with low leverage plus near-1.0 FCF-to-net-income conversion indicates strong cash generation. That financial flexibility supports reinvestment, dividend policy, acquisitions and weathering fundraising cycles, enhancing long-term operational stability.

Negative Factors

Lumpy Performance Fees

Absence of carried interest in a quarter underscores the inherent volatility of performance fees. Heavy reliance on realization timing makes earnings and distributable cash more episodic, complicating forecasting and increasing sensitivity to exit markets over multi-quarter horizons.

Rising Operating Expenses

Elevated personnel costs and intangible amortization can erode margin expansion from AUM growth. If expense growth outpaces fee revenue over several quarters, return on equity and distributable earnings could be pressured, reducing scalable operating leverage from larger AUM.

Slight Margin Compression

A decline in EBIT margin, while modest, signals rising cost or efficiency pressures as the business scales. Sustained margin compression would impair profitability leverage from higher AUM and could limit reinvestment capacity or dividend growth absent stronger fee rate improvements.

Patria Investments Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm focused on investing in Latin America. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds. Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.

How the Company Makes Money

Patria Investments generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees associated with its investment funds. Management fees are typically a percentage of the assets under management (AUM) and provide a steady income stream regardless of fund performance. Performance fees, on the other hand, are earned when the funds exceed specified return benchmarks, aligning the company's interests with those of its investors. Additionally, Patria may earn advisory fees from investment banking services and transactions involving mergers and acquisitions. Strategic partnerships with local and international investors, along with a strong track record of successful investments, further contribute to its earnings by attracting new capital and enhancing investment performance.

Patria Investments Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid overall fundamentals supported by strong cash generation (free cash flow growth 32.92% TTM; FCF to net income 0.97) and healthy profitability (net margin 20.68%). Balance sheet leverage is low (debt-to-equity 0.28) with a robust equity ratio (43.87%), though operating efficiency shows mild pressure with a slightly lower EBIT margin (39.24% vs 40.88% prior year).

Income Statement

Patria Investments demonstrates strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.92% and consistent profitability, as evidenced by a solid gross profit margin of 63.47% and a net profit margin of 20.68%. However, the EBIT margin has slightly decreased to 39.24% from 40.88% in the previous year, indicating some pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28, reflecting prudent financial management. Return on equity is strong at 15.78%, although it has decreased from previous levels. The equity ratio remains robust at 43.87%, suggesting a stable capital structure.

Cash Flow

Patria Investments shows impressive cash flow performance with a free cash flow growth rate of 32.92% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.72, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.97, highlighting strong cash conversion.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	383.80M	374.20M	327.62M	258.88M	235.51M
Gross Profit	369.20M	323.72M	288.88M	224.05M	220.88M
EBITDA	131.30M	133.22M	146.36M	125.46M	131.35M
Net Income	85.60M	71.88M	118.40M	92.96M	122.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.49B	1.21B	1.01B	976.24M	761.32M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	90.10M	38.37M	33.20M	72.06M	167.13M
Total Debt	174.90M	250.41M	15.84M	16.09M	7.86M
Total Liabilities	850.60M	715.17M	490.24M	462.78M	197.04M
Stockholders Equity	618.20M	481.08M	542.49M	552.79M	564.28M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	137.66M	141.71M	74.34M	105.72M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	145.95M	156.72M	81.05M	107.56M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	25.31M	62.17M	-189.35M	-284.23M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-151.65M	-229.63M	118.55M	177.89M

Patria Investments Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.12
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.83, below the 50-day MA of 15.29, and below the 200-day MA of 14.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.58 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PAX.

Patria Investments Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VINP	73 Outperform	$751.98M	24.62	10.40%	4.56%	81.45%	-26.75%
PAX	69 Neutral	$2.09B	24.21	15.57%	3.78%	22.09%	58.98%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GSBD	66 Neutral	$1.02B	7.95	8.75%	17.34%	-16.58%	65.24%
APAM	65 Neutral	$3.25B	9.94	63.64%	8.72%	5.46%	2.10%
BCSF	62 Neutral	$837.45M	8.98	8.18%	13.18%	-26.08%	-27.65%
GCMG	62 Neutral	$2.34B	27.80	―	3.91%	18.33%	109.57%

Patria Investments Corporate Events

Patria Investments Posts Record 2025 Fundraising, Expands Platform With Strategic Acquisitions

On February 3, 2026, Patria Investments reported unaudited results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting strong fundraising and earnings growth that capped what management described as a very successful year. The firm raised a record $7.7 billion organically in 2025, including $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter, grew fee-earning assets under management to $40.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year, and increased fee-related earnings 19% to $202.5 million with robust margins. IFRS net income attributable to Patria reached $34.5 million in the fourth quarter and $85.6 million for the year, while distributable earnings were $78.5 million for the quarter ($0.50 per share) and $200.9 million for the full year ($1.27 per share). The company also advanced an expansion strategy with three acquisitions announced since late 2025: a 51% stake in Brazilian private credit manager Solis, closing January 2, 2026; the purchase of Brazilian REIT manager RBR, which closed on February 2, 2026 and makes Patria the largest independent manager of listed REITs in Brazil; and the pending acquisition of U.S.-based lower-middle-market private equity solutions manager WP Global Partners. Patria declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share payable on March 12, 2026 to shareholders of record on February 20, 2026 and hosted an earnings webcast on February 3, 2026, underscoring its confidence that the 2025 momentum and recent deals strengthen its position to meet its medium-term fundraising and fee-related earnings targets.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAX) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Patria Investments stock, see the PAX Stock Forecast page.

Patria Investments to Acquire WP Global Partners, Expanding U.S. Private Equity Footprint

On February 2, 2025, Patria Investments announced an agreement to acquire WP Global Partners, a U.S.-based private equity solutions manager focused on the lower-middle-market, in an all-cash transaction. The deal will add roughly US$1.8 billion in fee-earning assets under management to Patria’s Global Private Markets Solutions platform, lifting its pro forma fee-earning AUM to more than US$13.3 billion as of the third quarter of 2025, with nearly 40% of investments in U.S. assets, and is expected to be immediately accretive to fee-related earnings and distributable earnings. By integrating WP’s New York- and Chicago-based team and its network of general partner relationships, Patria is significantly expanding its U.S. footprint, strengthening its capabilities in middle-market primaries, secondaries and co-investments, and advancing its global diversification strategy for investors seeking greater exposure to North American private equity.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAX) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Patria Investments stock, see the PAX Stock Forecast page.

Patria Investments Reshapes Corporate Structure, Names Global COO and Successor CFO

On December 19, 2025, Patria Investments Limited announced a restructuring of its corporate organization to sharpen its global operating model and support growth at scale, including the creation of a Global Chief Operating Officer role. The firm appointed former DWS Group executive Nikitas Psyllakis as Global COO and Partner, based in London and reporting to CEO Alex Saigh, with responsibility for finance, funds, technology, legal and compliance, risk management and internal audit, bringing these functions under a unified leadership structure. As part of the same announcement, Patria confirmed that Chief Financial Officer Ana Cristina Russo, in the role since October 2022, plans to step down in April 2026, after which Raphael Denadai, currently Partner and CFO of Portfolio Management, will become CFO and join the Management Committee, reporting to the new COO, with a transition period through April 2026 to ensure continuity. The governance changes consolidate key control and support functions, signaling a drive for greater integration, agility and decision-making efficiency as Patria scales its global alternative asset management platform and strengthens its operational backbone for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAX) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Patria Investments stock, see the PAX Stock Forecast page.

Patria Investments Acquires RBR Gestão, Strengthening REIT Leadership in Brazil

On December 11, 2025, Patria Investments announced its acquisition of RBR Gestão, which manages approximately US$ 1.5 billion in listed Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in Brazil. This acquisition positions Patria as the leading manager of listed REITs in Brazil, enhancing its scale in credit and multi-asset strategies. The transaction, expected to close in Q1 2026, will increase Patria’s total Real Estate Fee Earning Assets under Management to US$ 8.5 billion, representing significant growth since its IPO in 2021.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAX) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Patria Investments stock, see the PAX Stock Forecast page.

Patria Investments Reports Increased Revenue Amid Rising Expenses

On December 10, 2025, Patria Investments Limited released its unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the nine-month period ending September 30, 2025. The report highlights a notable increase in net revenue from services, rising to $248.55 million from $216.96 million in the previous year. Despite this revenue growth, the company faced increased personnel expenses and amortization of intangible assets, impacting its overall financial performance. The financial statements provide stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial health and operational challenges over the past year.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAX) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Patria Investments stock, see the PAX Stock Forecast page.

Patria Investments Acquires Majority Stake in Solis Investimentos

On November 26, 2025, Patria Investments announced the acquisition of a 51% stake in Solis Investimentos, a Brazilian firm specializing in CLOs. This strategic move is expected to increase Patria’s Credit FEAUM by over 40%, enhancing its position as a leading Credit platform in Latin America. The acquisition is anticipated to be accretive in the first year, and it aligns with Patria’s strategy to expand its reach in the fast-growing CLO market, benefiting from Solis’ expertise and robust market relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAX) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Patria Investments stock, see the PAX Stock Forecast page.

Patria Investments Surpasses $50 Billion in Assets Under Management

On November 4, 2025, Patria Investments announced its third-quarter earnings results, highlighting significant growth in assets under management, which surpassed $50 billion, marking a milestone since its IPO in 2021. The firm reported $46.9 million in distributable earnings for the quarter, a 31% increase from the previous year, and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on December 12, 2025. This growth reflects Patria’s strong fundraising momentum and its ability to exceed its full-year fundraising target, reinforcing its confidence in achieving its 2025 and future objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAX) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Patria Investments stock, see the PAX Stock Forecast page.