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Patria Investments (PAX)
NASDAQ:PAX
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Patria Investments
(NASDAQ:PAX)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(8.16%Upside)
Patria Investments (PAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.27B
Dividend Yield4.19%
Average Volume (3M)589.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.6
Beta (1Y)0.87
Revenue Growth22.27%
EPS Growth-42.27%
CountryUS
Employees577
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength81
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding65,129,960
10 Day Avg. Volume524,096
30 Day Avg. Volume589,471
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-7.31
Price to Book (P/B)3.95
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio21.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.00Price Target Upside4.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
Patria Investments Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPatria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm focused on investing in Latin America. The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds. Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.
How the Company Makes MoneyPatria Investments generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees. The company charges management fees based on a percentage of assets under management (AUM), providing a steady income stream as long as the assets remain invested. Additionally, Patria earns performance fees contingent upon achieving certain return thresholds, aligning its interests with those of its investors. The firm's strategic partnerships and local market expertise enable it to identify lucrative investment opportunities, which, combined with successful asset management, contribute to its earnings. Furthermore, Patria's diversification across different asset classes and sectors helps mitigate risks and enhance potential returns.
Patria Investments Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 02, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 35.83%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 01, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presents a generally positive outlook with strong fundraising results and growth in fee-earning AUM, despite some challenges in performance-related earnings and the real estate market.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Fundraising Achievements
Patria raised a record $3.2 billion in Q1 2025, contributing to a $7.4 billion total over the last 12 months. This brings the company over halfway to its $6 billion fundraising target for the year.
Strong Growth in Fee-Earning AUM
The fee-earning AUM grew 46% year-over-year and 6% sequentially, driven by organic net inflows of over $700 million in Q1 2025, reflecting an annualized growth rate of 8.6%.
Increase in Distributable Earnings
Distributable earnings rose 12% year-over-year to $37 million or $0.23 per share, mainly due to strong fee-related earnings growth.
Resilience in Credit Investment Performance
The credit platform showed strong investment performance, particularly in high-yield credit funds, indicating robust demand and investor interest.
Negative Updates
Performance-Related Earnings Decline
Performance-related earnings were minimal in the quarter, with a noted decline in publicly-listed portfolio companies within private equity.
Challenges in Real Estate Market
High interest rates in Brazil negatively impacted demand for many listed REITs, posing challenges for capital raising in the real estate sector.
Company Guidance
During Patria's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company highlighted record fundraising of $3.2 billion, aiming to reach a $6 billion target for the year. Fee-related earnings (FRE) were reported at $42.6 million, or $0.27 per share, showing a 16% year-over-year increase despite a 22% sequential decline due to seasonal factors. Fee-earning assets under management (AUM) rose 6% sequentially and 46% year-over-year, with $700 million in organic net inflows, reflecting an annualized growth rate of 8.6%. Patria's total AUM grew to $46 billion, driven by strong fundraising, investment returns, and favorable FX impacts. The company reiterated its 2025 FRE per share guidance of $1.25 to $1.50, aiming for approximately 20% year-over-year growth. They also emphasized the impact of currency fluctuations, noting that a 10% change in soft currencies would only affect FRE by about 2% due to a natural hedge in expenses. Patria remains confident in its fundraising goals, attributing success to its diversified investment strategies and the ability to craft customized solutions for investors, especially amid global economic uncertainties.Patria Investments Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Patria Investments shows strong revenue growth and a stable equity base but faces challenges with declining net income and cash flow generation. The increased leverage needs careful management.Income Statement
Patria Investments has shown consistent revenue growth over recent years, with a notable increase from $329.4 million in 2023 to $374.2 million in 2024. The gross profit margin remains robust, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has declined due to a decrease in net income from 2023 to 2024, which could indicate rising operational costs or other financial pressures.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a strong equity position with a healthy equity ratio, though the debt-to-equity ratio has increased due to significant growth in total debt. While this suggests potential leverage risks, the overall financial structure remains stable with adequate stockholders' equity to support business operations.70
Positive
Cash Flow
There is a noticeable decline in free cash flow in 2024, which raises concerns about the company's ability to generate cash from operations. The absence of operating cash flow data for 2024 limits detailed analysis, but previous years showed robust free cash flow and operating efficiency.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 390.00M | 374.20M | 329.41M | 258.88M | 235.51M | 115.02M |
| Gross Profit | 246.50M | 230.40M | 202.74M | 224.37M | 148.75M | 81.83M |
| EBITDA | 173.18M | 179.91M | 146.36M | 132.81M | 130.93M | 72.81M |
| Net Income | 72.70M | 73.40M | 118.40M | 92.96M | 122.48M | 62.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.28B | 1.22B | 1.01B | 976.24M | 761.32M | 107.20M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 175.40M | 92.40M | 33.20M | 312.37M | 167.13M | 23.98M |
| Total Debt | 192.10M | 228.00M | 15.84M | 16.09M | 7.86M | 1.58M |
| Total Liabilities | 718.10M | 723.60M | 490.24M | 462.78M | 197.04M | 48.13M |
| Stockholders Equity | 549.40M | 480.60M | 542.49M | 552.79M | 564.28M | 57.31M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 100.52M | 137.66M | 141.71M | 74.34M | 105.72M | 52.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 104.01M | 145.95M | 156.72M | 81.05M | 107.56M | 52.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 78.08M | 25.31M | 62.17M | -189.35M | -284.23M | 23.51M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -174.18M | -151.65M | -229.63M | 118.55M | 177.89M | -66.24M |
Patria Investments Technical Analysis
Positive
14.33
Price Trends
12.78
Positive
11.90
Positive
11.64
Positive
Market Momentum
0.40
Positive
62.59
Neutral
79.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.91, above the 50-day MA of 12.78, and above the 200-day MA of 11.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAX.
Patria Investments Risk Analysis
Patria Investments disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Patria Investments reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Climate change can create transition risks, physical risks and other risks that could adversely affect us. Q4, 2023
Patria Investments Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.27B | 31.60 | 13.16% | 4.19% | 22.27% | -42.27% | |
73 Outperform | $1.35B | 11.59 | 13.66% | 4.52% | 0.63% | 1.46% | |
71 Outperform | $1.35B | 26.65 | 3.27% | 16.67% | -28.04% | -69.52% | |
69 Neutral | $1.13B | 1.44 | 11.11% | ― | ― | ― | |
67 Neutral | $16.89B | 11.79 | 9.73% | 3.75% | 11.97% | -8.33% | |
65 Neutral | $1.14B | 10.68 | 8.11% | 12.11% | -3.55% | -20.43% | |
58 Neutral | $1.60B | ― | -4.80% | 16.31% | -31.63% | -0.75% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
PAX
Patria Investments
14.18
2.14
17.77%
NMFC
New Mountain Finance
10.66
-0.24
-2.20%
PSEC
Prospect Capital
3.32
-1.49
-30.98%
VRTS
Virtus Investment Partners
197.36
-15.84
-7.43%
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
11.61
-1.67
-12.58%
AMTD
AMTD IDEA Group
1.01
-0.61
-37.65%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.