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GCM Grosvenor (GCMG)
NASDAQ:GCMG
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GCM Grosvenor
(NASDAQ:GCMG)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
â–²(7.44% Upside)
Positive Factors
Fundraising and Demand
Record fundraising levels highlight growing demand for infrastructure and private credit strategies.
Future Growth
The company is setting up for a strong future given a strong pipeline, improving fundraising and transaction environments, and record levels of CNYFPAUM.
Market Valuation
With shares trading well below peer valuations, analysts believe now is a good time to buy.
Negative Factors
Economic Uncertainty
Greater economic uncertainty and recession risks have weakened the outlook for deployments and realizations.
GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.53B
Dividend Yield3.38%
Average Volume (3M)542.78K
Price to Earnings (P/E)91.8
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth15.78%
EPS Growth56.27%
CountryUS
Employees549
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength73
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding53,220,318
10 Day Avg. Volume491,756
30 Day Avg. Volume542,778
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.56
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.10
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.67Price Target Upside27.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
GCM Grosvenor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGCM Grosvenor Inc. is global alternative asset management solutions provider. The firm primarily provides its services to pooled investment vehicles. It also provides its services to investment companies, high net worth individuals, pension and profit sharing plans and state or municipal government entities. The firm invests in equity and alternative investment markets of the United States and internationally. The firm invests in multi-strategy, credit-focused, equity-focused, macro-focused, commodity-focused, and other specialty portfolios. It focuses in hedge fund asset classes, private equity, real estate, and/or infrastructure, credit and absolute return strategies. It also focuses in primary fund investments, secondary fund investments, and co-investments with a focus on buyout, distressed debt, mezzanine, venture capital/growth equity investments. The firm seeks to do seed investments in small, emerging, and diverse private equity firms. The firm seeks to make regionally-focused investments in middle-market buyout. It prefers to invest in aerospace and defense, advanced electronics, information technology, biosciences, and advanced materials. It focuses on Ohio and the Midwest region. The firm employs fundamental and quantitative analysis. GCM Grosvenor Inc. was founded in 1971 and is based in Chicago, Illinois with additional offices in North America, Asia, Australia and Europe.
How the Company Makes MoneyGCM Grosvenor generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees associated with its investment funds. Management fees are typically charged as a percentage of the assets under management (AUM), providing a steady income stream as the firm manages client investments. Performance fees, often a percentage of the profits generated by the funds, incentivize the firm to maximize returns for its clients. Additionally, GCMG may earn advisory fees from providing strategic investment advice and solutions. The firm benefits from significant partnerships with institutional investors and has built a reputation for its strong performance track record, which further attracts new clients and capital. Its diversified approach across various asset classes also helps mitigate risks and enhance overall profitability.
GCM Grosvenor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong financial performance with record fundraising and growth in key segments like infrastructure and private credit. Although there are some concerns about macroeconomic volatility and fee pressures, the positive developments and robust growth indicators provide a mostly optimistic outlook.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Fee-related earnings, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted net income were up 6%, 9%, and 9% respectively compared to the same quarter last year. Year-to-date figures show even stronger growth of 14%, 17%, and 19% respectively compared to the first half of 2024.
Record Fundraising
Raised $2.4 billion in the quarter, bringing the first half of the year fundraising to $5.3 billion, a 52% increase from the first half of 2024, marking the highest first-half fundraising total on record.
Infrastructure and Private Credit Growth
Infrastructure accounted for $1.9 billion of fundraising in the first half of the year. Private credit was the highest contributor to quarterly fundraising, benefiting the business through market evolution.
Positive Absolute Return Strategies (ARS) Performance
Multi-strategy composite returned approximately 6% on a gross basis with fee-paying AUM in ARS up 7% year-to-date and 10% over the last 12 months.
Significant Unrealized Carried Interest
Unrealized carried interest at NAV surpassed $900 million this quarter, with $450 million owned by the firm, translating into approximately $2.30 per share.
Negative Updates
Volatile Macro Environment
Volatility around interest rates, tariffs, and policy remains, prompting caution despite improved tax policy clarity and some acceleration in transaction activity.
Absolute Return Strategies Fee Rate Decline
The fee rate for absolute return strategies declined by a couple of basis points this quarter due to idiosyncratic factors.
Catch-Up Fees Not Expected
No material catch-up fees expected in the back half of the year, which may affect immediate revenue recognition despite strong fundraising.
Company Guidance
During the GCM Grosvenor Second Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported strong growth across various financial metrics, with fee-related earnings, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted net income increasing by 6%, 9%, and 9% respectively compared to Q2 2024. Year-to-date figures showed even more significant growth, with these metrics up by 14%, 17%, and 19% compared to the first half of 2024. The fee-related earnings margin was 42%, up by 200 basis points from the previous year. Assets under management (AUM) grew to $86 billion, marking a 5% increase from the previous quarter, driven by strong performance and fundraising efforts, especially in private market strategies, which raised $2.4 billion in the quarter, bringing the first half total to $5.3 billion, a 52% increase from the same period last year. The company highlighted a robust fundraising pipeline, particularly in infrastructure and private credit, with infrastructure alone accounting for $1.9 billion of fundraising in the first half. The absolute return strategies also performed well, contributing to a $1 billion gross fund flow for the first half, with net inflows of $400 million in the second quarter. GCM Grosvenor is optimistic about exceeding its 2024 fundraising levels and anticipates strong demand for alternative investments to continue.GCM Grosvenor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
GCM Grosvenor shows strong cash flow management and operational improvements with rising EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the balance sheet presents significant financial risks due to negative equity and high leverage. Income statement results indicate profitability but with potential volatility in revenue trends.Income Statement
The income statement displays a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is healthy at approximately 59.1%, indicating effective cost control despite a slight decline in total revenue. The net profit margin is modest at 3.2%, reflecting some profitability challenges. Revenue growth shows volatility with a recent decline, but EBIT and EBITDA margins improved, suggesting operational enhancements.70
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet highlights significant risks with a negative stockholders' equity, indicating potential solvency issues. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, but total debt is substantial. The equity ratio is negative, further emphasizing financial risk. However, the company maintains a reasonable level of cash and cash equivalents.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis is strong, with substantial free cash flow growth and a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of approximately 9.3 times, suggesting efficient cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also high, indicating strong cash flow relative to net earnings.75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 530.98M | 514.01M | 445.00M | 446.53M | 531.59M | 433.14M |
| Gross Profit | 207.66M | 177.78M | 88.95M | 169.22M | 197.75M | 41.52M |
| EBITDA | 112.93M | 77.64M | -9.15M | 84.17M | 130.21M | -50.95M |
| Net Income | 27.67M | 18.70M | 12.77M | 19.82M | 21.48M | 4.05M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 636.86M | 612.73M | 504.94M | 488.93M | 581.62M | 631.89M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 136.33M | 89.45M | 44.35M | 85.16M | 96.19M | 198.15M |
| Total Debt | 483.80M | 485.92M | 426.21M | 403.15M | 390.52M | 335.15M |
| Total Liabilities | 657.50M | 703.07M | 616.17M | 582.94M | 637.42M | 556.17M |
| Stockholders Equity | -20.64M | -27.62M | -27.63M | -19.82M | -25.71M | -29.34M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 188.91M | 132.04M | 88.30M | 215.73M | 178.23M | 66.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 182.33M | 148.77M | 92.06M | 216.51M | 178.80M | 68.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.97M | -31.83M | -18.84M | -10.07M | -28.11M | -5.53M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -98.09M | -70.38M | -113.66M | -215.07M | -251.27M | 54.76M |
GCM Grosvenor Technical Analysis
Positive
13.03
Price Trends
12.10
Positive
12.24
Positive
12.48
Positive
Market Momentum
0.27
Negative
66.42
Neutral
74.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.67, above the 50-day MA of 12.10, and above the 200-day MA of 12.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GCMG.
GCM Grosvenor Risk Analysis
GCM Grosvenor disclosed 82 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GCM Grosvenor reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GCM Grosvenor Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $4.19B | 11.79 | 32.69% | 2.42% | 5.92% | 54.93% | |
71 Outperform | $3.92B | 10.35 | 9.33% | 11.28% | 32.19% | -13.72% | |
69 Neutral | $3.79B | 12.76 | 67.97% | 7.57% | 9.98% | 12.97% | |
68 Neutral | $17.89B | 12.03 | 10.28% | 3.73% | 9.80% | 1.66% | |
64 Neutral | $2.53B | 91.80 | -12.68% | 3.38% | 15.78% | 56.27% | |
64 Neutral | $3.51B | 12.66 | 12.81% | 9.73% | -15.88% | -13.91% | |
48 Neutral | $2.55B | 72.24 | -18.73% | 2.65% | -4.35% | -281.66% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor
13.03
2.61
25.05%
FHI
Federated Hermes
53.61
20.75
63.15%
GBDC
Golub Capital Bdc
14.78
1.24
9.16%
HTGC
Hercules Capital
19.43
2.31
13.49%
APAM
Artisan Partners
47.16
8.96
23.46%
BRDG
Bridge Investment Group
9.64
1.58
19.60%
GCM Grosvenor Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Sandra Buchanan Resigns from GCM Grosvenor
Neutral
Jul 14, 2025
On July 9, 2025, Sandra Buchanan resigned from her position at GCM Grosvenor Inc., with her resignation taking effect on October 3, 2025. She has agreed to assist the company in transitioning her responsibilities, which may impact the company’s operations during this period.
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
GCM Grosvenor Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting 2025
Neutral
Jun 6, 2025
On June 5, 2025, GCM Grosvenor Inc. held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where Class A and Class C common stockholders participated, representing approximately 97.06% of the combined voting power. During the meeting, Michael J. Sacks, Angela Blanton, Francesca Cornelli, David A. Helfand, Jonathan R. Levin, Stephen Malkin, and Samuel C. Scott III were elected as directors, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.