GCM Grosvenor (GCMG)
NASDAQ:GCMG
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GCM Grosvenor
(NASDAQ:GCMG)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
â–²(8.25% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by improving profitability and strong cash generation, but is held back by high leverage and a thin equity cushion. Earnings-call commentary was a meaningful positive (record fundraising, AUM growth, margin expansion, and shareholder returns/deleveraging), while technicals are only moderately supportive and valuation appears somewhat rich despite the solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation / free cash flow
Consistent operating and free cash flow (including a 2025 step-up) underpins durable funding for buybacks, debt prepayment and reinvestment. Strong cash conversion in an asset-manager supports capital returns and cushions cyclical AUM/fee volatility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High leverage / thin equity cushion
Elevated debt and a recently restored but small equity base reduce financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to AUM declines or fee compression. Higher leverage limits strategic optionality and raises refinancing and covenant risks during market stress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation / free cash flow
Consistent operating and free cash flow (including a 2025 step-up) underpins durable funding for buybacks, debt prepayment and reinvestment. Strong cash conversion in an asset-manager supports capital returns and cushions cyclical AUM/fee volatility over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.96B
Dividend Yield3.91%
Average Volume (3M)743.46K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.0
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth18.33%
EPS Growth109.57%
CountryUS
Employees549
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding60,810,960
10 Day Avg. Volume841,782
30 Day Avg. Volume743,464
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)21.81
Price to Sales (P/S)1.07
P/FCF Ratio3.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.26
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.50Price Target Upside80.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$587.37M
GCM Grosvenor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GCM Grosvenor Inc. is global alternative asset management solutions provider. The firm primarily provides its services to pooled investment vehicles. It also provides its services to investment companies, high net worth individuals, pension and pr...
How the Company Makes Money
GCM Grosvenor primarily makes money by earning fees for managing alternative investment solutions for clients, with revenues tied to assets under management and, where applicable, investment performance. Its key revenue streams generally include: ...
GCM Grosvenor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall: record fundraising, double-digit AUM growth, robust investment performance (notably ARS and Infrastructure), margin expansion, significant dry powder, growing carried interest NAV, and targeted shareholder-return and debt-reduction actions. Notable challenges included softer-than-expected carried interest realizations in Q4, a likely smaller Advance fund successor, and limited catch-up fees in 2026, but these lowlights are relatively limited compared with the breadth and magnitude of the positives.Positive Updates
Record Fundraising in 2025
Raised a firm-record $10.7 billion in total capital in 2025 (including ~$3.5 billion in Q4), with broad-based contributions across all verticals, investor channels, and geographies.
Negative Updates
Light Carried Interest Realizations in Q4
Carried interest realizations were light in the fourth quarter and softer than expected; management emphasized carry is hard to predict timing-wise despite an increasing carried interest NAV (gross unrealized carry $949M).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Fundraising in 2025
Raised a firm-record $10.7 billion in total capital in 2025 (including ~$3.5 billion in Q4), with broad-based contributions across all verticals, investor channels, and geographies.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026: management expects private‑markets management fees to be relatively consistent with Q4 2025 (with limited catch‑up fees this year) and ARS management fees to increase ~5% from Q4; fee‑related earnings (FRE) compensation and benefits are expected to remain about $148M for the year (≈$37M/quarter) and about $1M higher in Q1 2026 versus Q1 2025; non‑GAAP G&A was just over $20M in Q4 and is expected to be in line with or slightly above 2025 in 2026. On capital allocation, the board added $35M to buybacks leaving $91M available, the firm repurchased 2.8M shares in Q4 for ~$31M (avg $11.11), issued ~10M shares from warrant exercises for just over $110M of proceeds, and is prepaying $65M of term loan (saving >$3M/year). Management reiterated targets to more than double 2023 FRE to >$280M and to grow adjusted net income per share to >$1.20 by 2028, noted a pipeline larger than a year ago with a bottom‑up fundraising build that could rival or exceed 2025’s record $10.7B (but the current budget is in line with last year), and called out upside from incentive fees.GCM Grosvenor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 550.08M | 523.47M | 451.99M | 452.52M | 577.56M |
| Gross Profit | 545.65M | 235.40M | 95.94M | 175.21M | 243.73M |
| EBITDA | 174.66M | 77.64M | 4.93M | 116.26M | 177.17M |
| Net Income | 45.37M | 18.70M | 12.77M | 19.82M | 21.48M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 813.76M | 612.73M | 504.94M | 488.93M | 581.62M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 242.12M | 89.45M | 44.35M | 85.16M | 96.19M |
| Total Debt | 480.23M | 485.92M | 426.21M | 403.15M | 390.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 686.33M | 703.07M | 616.17M | 582.94M | 637.42M |
| Stockholders Equity | 26.99M | -27.62M | -27.63M | -19.82M | -25.71M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 175.04M | 132.04M | 88.30M | 215.73M | 178.23M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 183.54M | 148.77M | 92.06M | 216.51M | 178.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -120.50M | -31.83M | -18.84M | -10.07M | -28.11M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 89.13M | -70.38M | -113.66M | -215.07M | -251.27M |
GCM Grosvenor Technical Analysis
Negative
9.70
Price Trends
10.82
Negative
11.01
Negative
11.41
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.40
Positive
37.32
Neutral
51.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.21, below the 50-day MA of 10.82, and below the 200-day MA of 11.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GCMG.
GCM Grosvenor Risk Analysis
GCM Grosvenor disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GCM Grosvenor reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GCM Grosvenor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $2.02B | 18.19 | 14.71% | 3.78% | 22.09% | 58.98% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $1.02B | 8.99 | 8.03% | 17.34% | -16.58% | 65.24% | |
65 Neutral | $3.22B | 21.00 | 28.53% | 3.92% | 12.73% | 19.01% | |
65 Neutral | $2.95B | 9.21 | 73.54% | 8.72% | 5.46% | 2.10% | |
62 Neutral | $1.96B | 12.97 | -863.72% | 3.91% | 18.33% | 109.57% | |
62 Neutral | $2.74B | 10.01 | 15.88% | 10.00% | -15.32% | -12.29% |
* Financial Sector Average
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor
9.70
-2.30
-19.14%
CNS
Cohen & Steers
62.66
-8.07
-11.41%
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
14.90
0.02
0.13%
APAM
Artisan Partners
36.57
4.80
15.12%
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
9.03
0.57
6.71%
PAX
Patria Investments
12.66
3.08
32.15%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.