Gcm Grosvenor Inc. (GCMG)
NASDAQ:GCMG
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GCM Grosvenor
(NASDAQ:GCMG)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
â–²(14.26% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/11/26
The score is driven by strong cash flow and a bullish technical backdrop, reinforced by a positive earnings-call outlook for AUM, fee growth, and fundraising. The main constraint is balance-sheet risk/volatility across periods, with valuation also only moderate due to a higher P/E despite a solid dividend.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent, high free cash flow (TTM ~$195M) underpins durable funding for dividends, buybacks and investment. Strong cash conversion (FCF-to-net-income ~0.96) reduces reliance on external financing and supports long-term capital allocation and operational resilience.
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet volatility
Sharp swings in leverage and historical negative equity indicate elevated capital-structure risk. Large year-to-year volatility can constrain strategic flexibility, increase refinancing and covenant risk, and limit ability to opportunistically deploy capital or sustain distributions under stress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistent, high free cash flow (TTM ~$195M) underpins durable funding for dividends, buybacks and investment. Strong cash conversion (FCF-to-net-income ~0.96) reduces reliance on external financing and supports long-term capital allocation and operational resilience.
Read all positive factors
GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.18B
Dividend Yield3.91%
Average Volume (3M)408.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.3
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth5.42%
EPS Growth143.26%
CountryUS
Employees549
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.92
Shares Outstanding60,810,960
10 Day Avg. Volume450,153
30 Day Avg. Volume408,712
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)21.81
Price to Sales (P/S)1.07
P/FCF Ratio3.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.09
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.13Price Target Upside29.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.87
Revenue Forecast (FY)$577.57M
GCM Grosvenor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GCM Grosvenor Inc. is global alternative asset management solutions provider. The firm primarily provides its services to pooled investment vehicles. It also provides its services to investment companies, high net worth individuals, pension and pr...
How the Company Makes Money
GCM Grosvenor primarily makes money by earning fees for managing alternative investment solutions for clients, with revenues tied to assets under management and, where applicable, investment performance. Its key revenue streams generally include: ...
GCM Grosvenor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed a constructive and growth-oriented outlook: strong AUM and fee-paying AUM growth, record carried interest, diversified fundraising across strategies (infrastructure, ARS, credit) and clear progress in the wealth channel and product launches. Management emphasized underlying organic revenue and FRE growth after adjusting for prior-year catch-up fees, expanding pipeline and strategic hires, plus capital returns and balance sheet strength. Near-term headwinds include a flat reported FRE (GAAP-view) driven by prior-year timing, slightly elevated G&A from AI investments, and the inherent uncertainty in monetizing carried interest. On balance, highlights and positive momentum materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
AUM and Fee-Paying AUM Growth
Assets under management of $91.0B (up 12% year-over-year) and fee-paying AUM of $74.0B (up 11% year-over-year), reflecting growth driven by both performance and capital formation.
Negative Updates
Reported FRE and Fee-Related Revenue Flat on a GAAP-Reported Basis
Fee-related earnings were flat year-over-year at $47M and fee-related revenue was $107M on a reported basis, with growth masked by the prior-year catch-up management fees, which distorted YoY comparatives.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
AUM and Fee-Paying AUM Growth
Assets under management of $91.0B (up 12% year-over-year) and fee-paying AUM of $74.0B (up 11% year-over-year), reflecting growth driven by both performance and capital formation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management reiterated confidence in near‑term and multi‑year targets while providing specific Q2 and FY signals: Q1 AUM was $91B and fee‑paying AUM $74B (up 12% and 11% YoY) with $9.8B contracted but not yet fee‑paying (+20% YoY) and unrealized carried interest topping $1.0B (firm share >$500M, +16% and +23% YoY); fundraising was $1.5B in Q1 and $9.3B over the last 12 months (infrastructure $2.6B, ARS $2.0B, credit secondaries ~$1.0B), ARS fee‑paying AUM was $26B (+16% YoY), fee‑related revenue was $107M and fee‑related earnings $47M (FRE margin 44%) — excluding $7.6M of Q1’25 catch‑up fees, private market management fees of $63M grew ~7% YoY — and the company expects Q2 private market management fees to be ~+2% sequential, ARS management fees to be ~+1% sequential (≈+10% YoY), overall fee‑related revenue to rise in Q2 by a high single‑digit % YoY, FRE compensation & benefits to increase ~$1M in Q2 (from $37M), G&A to remain near $23M, and larger fundraising in Q2 and the back half of 2026 while reaffirming the 2028 FRE/ANI growth objectives.GCM Grosvenor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 557.46M | 565.55M | 523.47M | 451.99M | 452.52M | 577.56M |
| Gross Profit | 459.25M | 565.55M | 235.40M | 95.94M | 175.21M | 243.73M |
| EBITDA | 198.26M | 182.15M | 77.64M | 4.93M | 116.26M | 177.17M |
| Net Income | 50.38M | 45.37M | 18.70M | 12.77M | 19.82M | 21.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 688.77M | 813.76M | 612.73M | 504.94M | 488.93M | 581.62M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 164.39M | 242.12M | 89.45M | 44.35M | 85.16M | 96.19M |
| Total Debt | 414.47M | 480.23M | 485.92M | 426.21M | 403.15M | 390.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 566.50M | 686.33M | 703.07M | 616.17M | 582.94M | 637.42M |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.49M | 26.99M | -27.62M | -27.63M | -19.82M | -25.71M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 190.82M | 175.04M | 132.04M | 88.30M | 215.73M | 178.23M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 202.00M | 183.54M | 148.77M | 92.06M | 216.51M | 178.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -97.72M | -120.50M | -31.83M | -18.84M | -10.07M | -28.11M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -33.77M | 89.13M | -70.38M | -113.66M | -215.07M | -251.27M |
GCM Grosvenor Technical Analysis
Negative
10.94
Price Trends
10.49
Positive
10.90
Negative
11.30
Negative
Market Momentum
0.07
Positive
43.22
Neutral
9.92
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCMG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.97, above the 50-day MA of 10.49, and below the 200-day MA of 11.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GCMG.
GCM Grosvenor Risk Analysis
GCM Grosvenor disclosed 79 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GCM Grosvenor reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GCM Grosvenor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $2.97B | 10.37 | 71.27% | 8.72% | 9.72% | 8.92% | |
72 Outperform | $3.71B | 18.99 | 28.28% | 3.92% | 9.99% | -1.69% | |
70 Outperform | $1.80B | 217.90 | 12.14% | 3.78% | 3.28% | -3.07% | |
69 Neutral | $2.18B | 27.35 | 614.24% | 3.91% | 5.42% | 143.26% | |
69 Neutral | $2.88B | 15.88 | 15.11% | 10.00% | 14.32% | 36.84% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
52 Neutral | $984.98M | -18.33 | 5.14% | 17.34% | 14.92% | 48.21% |
* Financial Sector Average
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor
10.43
-1.60
-13.33%
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HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
15.64
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APAM
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36.45
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GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
8.91
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PAX
Patria Investments
11.11
-0.97
-8.01%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.