GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.39B
• Dividend Yield: 3.85%
• Average Volume (3M): 933.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 42.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.65
• Revenue Growth: 18.33%
• EPS Growth: 109.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 549
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.19
• Shares Outstanding: 62,656,210
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 853,417
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 933,500
• PEG Ratio: -0.22
• Price to Book (P/B): -19.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.07
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.38
• 1Y Price Target: $13.25
• Price Target Upside: 13.44% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.78
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $534.73M

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▼(-1.54% Downside)

GCM Grosvenor's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial picture with strong earnings call highlights and cash flow generation, but significant financial risks and bearish technical indicators. The high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, balanced by a strong dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Record Assets Under Management

The record AUM indicates strong client trust and effective investment strategies, enhancing GCMG's market position and revenue potential.

Impressive Fundraising Achievements

Surpassing previous fundraising records showcases GCMG's strong market reputation and ability to attract capital, supporting future growth.

Strong Cash Flow Generation

Robust cash flow growth ensures financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and sustaining dividend payouts, bolstering investor confidence.

Negative Factors

High Leverage and Negative Equity

High leverage and negative equity pose financial risks, limiting GCMG's ability to withstand economic downturns and invest in growth opportunities.

Challenges in ARS Net Flows

Flat net flows in Absolute Return Strategies suggest potential challenges in attracting new investments, which could impact future revenue growth.

Seasonal Nature of Carried Interest Realizations

Seasonal fluctuations in carried interest realizations can lead to inconsistent earnings, affecting financial predictability and planning.

GCM Grosvenor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) is a global investment management firm specializing in alternative investments, including private equity, real assets, and hedge funds. The company provides tailored investment solutions to a diverse clientele, including institutional investors, pension funds, and family offices. With a strong focus on delivering long-term value through rigorous research and a disciplined investment approach, GCMG leverages its expertise to navigate complex markets and identify opportunities across various asset classes.

How the Company Makes Money

GCM Grosvenor generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees associated with the assets under management (AUM). The management fees are typically charged as a percentage of AUM, providing a steady income stream based on the total capital managed for clients. Performance fees, on the other hand, are contingent on the investment performance exceeding a predefined benchmark, allowing the company to capitalize on successful investments. Additionally, GCMG may earn advisory fees for providing investment consulting services and may engage in co-investment opportunities alongside clients, further enhancing its revenue. Strategic partnerships with institutional investors and a strong track record in alternative investments also contribute significantly to its earnings.

GCM Grosvenor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GCM Grosvenor shows promising revenue growth and improved profitability margins, but faces significant challenges with its leveraged balance sheet and negative equity. Strong cash flow generation provides a cushion, but addressing the high leverage and improving net profitability are crucial for long-term financial stability.

Income Statement

GCM Grosvenor's income statement shows a positive trajectory with a revenue growth rate of 10.5% in the TTM, indicating a recovery from previous declines. The gross profit margin improved to 39.1%, reflecting better cost management. However, the net profit margin remains low at 5.2%, suggesting challenges in translating revenue growth into net income. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, but there is room for further enhancement to strengthen profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals significant leverage with a negative equity position, resulting in a high debt-to-equity ratio of -23.44. This indicates financial instability and potential risk. The return on equity is negative, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is also negative, underscoring the need for improved capital structure and financial health.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows strong free cash flow growth of 18.3% in the TTM, indicating robust cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.48, suggesting efficient cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, highlighting the company's ability to generate cash beyond its net income, which is a positive sign for liquidity and operational efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	557.89M	523.47M	451.99M	452.52M	577.56M	433.14M
Gross Profit	476.02M	235.40M	95.94M	175.21M	243.73M	44.67M
EBITDA	154.97M	77.64M	4.93M	116.26M	177.17M	-45.43M
Net Income	34.01M	18.70M	12.77M	19.82M	21.48M	4.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	685.93M	612.73M	504.94M	488.93M	581.62M	632.28M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	182.75M	89.45M	44.35M	85.16M	96.19M	198.15M
Total Debt	481.54M	485.92M	426.21M	403.15M	390.52M	335.15M
Total Liabilities	682.11M	703.07M	616.17M	582.94M	637.42M	599.35M
Stockholders Equity	-7.39M	-27.62M	-27.63M	-19.82M	-25.71M	-29.34M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	188.10M	132.04M	88.30M	215.73M	178.23M	66.86M
Operating Cash Flow	193.16M	148.77M	92.06M	216.51M	178.80M	68.17M
Investing Cash Flow	-21.20M	-31.83M	-18.84M	-10.07M	-28.11M	-5.53M
Financing Cash Flow	-87.13M	-70.38M	-113.66M	-215.07M	-251.27M	54.76M

GCM Grosvenor Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.68
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.99, above the 50-day MA of 11.28, and below the 200-day MA of 11.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.93 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GCMG.

GCM Grosvenor Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HTGC	79 Outperform	$3.42B	10.96	15.21%	9.86%	-15.32%	-12.29%
PAX	74 Outperform	$2.58B	23.80	20.03%	3.81%	22.09%	58.98%
APAM	73 Outperform	$3.35B	11.55	62.04%	8.75%	5.46%	2.10%
GSBD	71 Outperform	$1.13B	8.72	8.75%	16.88%	-16.58%	65.24%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CNS	60 Neutral	$3.19B	19.64	31.53%	3.97%	12.73%	19.01%
GCMG	60 Neutral	$2.39B	42.33	―	3.85%	18.33%	109.57%

GCM Grosvenor Corporate Events

GCM Grosvenor Announces $100M Equity Distribution Deal

On November 17, 2025, GCM Grosvenor Inc. entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC, allowing the company to sell up to $100 million of its Class A common stock through an at-the-market offering. The proceeds from this offering are intended for general working capital and corporate purposes, potentially impacting the company’s financial flexibility and market positioning.

GCM Grosvenor Increases Quarterly Dividend

On October 15, 2025, GCM Grosvenor Inc. held an Investor Day event, sharing a presentation on their website for public shareholders, which was also webcast live. The day prior, the company’s Board of Directors approved an increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.12 per share, reflecting a $0.01 rise from the previous dividend, payable on December 15, 2025.