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GCM Grosvenor
(NASDAQ:GCMG)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$15.50
â–²(27.05% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/11/26
The score is driven primarily by strong operating/cash-flow performance and a bullish technical setup (price above major moving averages with positive MACD). This is reinforced by constructive earnings-call guidance around fundraising and fee growth, while the main risk holding the score back is balance-sheet history (prior high leverage/negative equity) and incentive-fee uncertainty tied to unrealized gains.
Positive Factors
AUM and Fee-Paying AUM Growth
Growth in total and fee-paying AUM expands the recurring management-fee base and improves operating scalability. Sustained institutional demand for alternative strategies can support durable revenue growth beyond investment-performance-driven income.
Negative Factors
Historical Leverage and Thin Equity
Although TTM equity is positive and debt is reported at zero, the recent history of heavy leverage and negative equity signals balance-sheet fragility. This may constrain flexibility and increase risk if earnings or asset values weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
AUM and Fee-Paying AUM Growth
Growth in total and fee-paying AUM expands the recurring management-fee base and improves operating scalability. Sustained institutional demand for alternative strategies can support durable revenue growth beyond investment-performance-driven income.
Read all positive factors
GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.73B
Dividend Yield3.42%
Average Volume (3M)578.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.6
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth7.62%
EPS Growth34.86%
CountryUS
Employees553
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.78
Shares Outstanding61,126,270
10 Day Avg. Volume735,275
30 Day Avg. Volume578,494
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)21.81
Price to Sales (P/S)1.07
P/FCF Ratio3.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.50Price Target Upside27.05% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$573.03M
GCM Grosvenor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GCM Grosvenor Inc. (GCMG) is an alternative asset management firm that provides investment management services primarily through multi-manager portfolios and advisory solutions. The company focuses on alternative strategies such as hedge funds, pr...
How the Company Makes Money
GCM Grosvenor primarily makes money by earning fees for managing and advising on alternative investment portfolios. Its core revenue streams typically include: (1) management fees charged on assets under management (AUM) in commingled funds and se...
GCM Grosvenor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong growth across AUM, fee-paying AUM, fundraising, revenue and fee-related earnings, with notable upside from the SpaceX position and accelerating credit capabilities. Key risks center on timing and realizability of large unrealized gains (SpaceX), potential volatility in incentive fees tied to share price moves, and uneven realization activity in private markets. Management emphasized a full fundraising pipeline, operating leverage and disciplined expense management, and expects continued fundraising strength and margin expansion.Positive Updates
AUM and Fee-Paying AUM Growth
Assets under management reached $97 billion and fee-paying AUM reached $78 billion, each up approximately 13% year-over-year as of quarter end.
Negative Updates
Unrealized Nature and Timing Risk of SpaceX Gains
The substantial SpaceX gains (~$3.5 billion value on ~$150 million cost basis) remain largely unrealized and subject to lockups and manager-controlled exit timing. Mark-to-market timing differences between ARS and private markets create quarter-to-quarter volatility in reported unrealized carry and potential fee recognition timing issues.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
AUM and Fee-Paying AUM Growth
Assets under management reached $97 billion and fee-paying AUM reached $78 billion, each up approximately 13% year-over-year as of quarter end.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that second‑half fundraising should exceed first‑half levels (H1 fundraising ~ $3.9B; Q1 $1.5B; Q2 $2.3B) and said its pipeline is full; for Q3 it expects ARS management fees to rise ~10% sequentially (nearly 20% YoY) and private‑markets management fees to increase in the mid‑single‑digits YoY. Q2 reported fee‑related revenue of $111M (+11% YoY), fee‑related earnings of $50M (+21% YoY) with an FRE margin of 45%; FRE compensation was ~$38M in Q2 and is estimated to be ~$1M higher in Q3 while G&A is expected to remain roughly consistent. Management reiterated that most performance fees crystallize in Q4, noted ~$7M of annual performance fees earned in H1 and estimated $35–$40M of unrealized annual performance fees (assumed SpaceX $110/share; each $10 move ≈ $4M of fees); gross unrealized carried interest was $965M (firm share $493M). Key balance‑sheet and AUM metrics underpinning the guidance: total AUM $97B, fee‑paying AUM $78B (+13% YoY), contracted non‑fee AUM $9.7B (+11% YoY), ARS fee‑paying AUM +22% YTD, credit platform nearly $18B (credit fundraising >$900M in Q2; credit YTD $1.4B) and closed an inaugural credit secondaries fund of ~ $1.2B; the firm maintained a $0.12 quarterly dividend and repurchased 1.6M shares for ~$17M with $55M remaining authorization.GCM Grosvenor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 564.78M | 550.08M | 503.52M | 436.14M | 452.00M | 538.59M |
| Gross Profit | 560.57M | 545.65M | 500.20M | 433.44M | 440.43M | 534.57M |
| EBITDA | 187.50M | 174.66M | 67.16M | -3.93M | 125.59M | 184.17M |
| Net Income | 44.50M | 45.37M | 18.70M | 12.77M | 19.82M | 21.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 677.04M | 813.76M | 612.73M | 504.94M | 488.93M | 581.62M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 139.60M | 242.12M | 89.45M | 44.35M | 85.16M | 96.19M |
| Total Debt | 412.94M | 480.23M | 485.92M | 426.21M | 403.15M | 390.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 554.65M | 686.33M | 703.07M | 616.17M | 582.94M | 637.42M |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.34M | 26.99M | -27.62M | -27.63M | -19.82M | -25.71M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 192.03M | 175.04M | 132.04M | 88.30M | 215.73M | 178.23M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 198.14M | 183.54M | 148.77M | 92.06M | 216.51M | 178.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -78.60M | -120.50M | -31.83M | -18.84M | -10.07M | -28.11M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -116.87M | 89.13M | -70.38M | -113.66M | -215.07M | -251.27M |
GCM Grosvenor Technical Analysis
Positive
12.20
Price Trends
12.90
Positive
11.72
Positive
11.33
Positive
Market Momentum
0.29
Positive
58.26
Neutral
14.84
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.36, below the 50-day MA of 12.90, and above the 200-day MA of 11.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.84 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GCMG.
GCM Grosvenor Risk Analysis
GCM Grosvenor disclosed 79 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GCM Grosvenor reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GCM Grosvenor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $4.15B | 24.90 | 29.72% | 3.17% | 12.59% | 2.98% | |
78 Outperform | $3.41B | 9.97 | 70.99% | 10.07% | 7.40% | 9.66% | |
77 Outperform | $2.73B | 17.60 | 252.74% | 3.85% | 7.62% | 34.86% | |
70 Outperform | $1.83B | 25.45 | 12.05% | 5.67% | 9.78% | -19.49% | |
68 Neutral | $3.19B | 8.20 | 17.21% | 10.17% | 44.00% | 36.72% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $1.12B | 19.29 | 4.17% | 17.78% | 117.29% | -58.47% |
* Financial Sector Average
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor
13.73
1.21
9.65%
CNS
Cohen & Steers
81.42
7.90
10.75%
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
17.13
<0.01
0.04%
APAM
Artisan Partners
42.26
-0.13
-0.31%
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
9.84
0.09
0.92%
PAX
Patria Investments
11.46
-1.31
-10.27%
GCM Grosvenor Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
GCM Grosvenor shareholders back directors and auditor slate
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on June 9, 2026, GCM Grosvenor Inc. reported that holders of its Class A and Class C common stock representing about 94.42% of combined voting power participated, underscoring strong shareholder engagemen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.