GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.33B
• Dividend Yield: 3.91%
• Average Volume (3M): 614.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.58
• Revenue Growth: 18.33%
• EPS Growth: 109.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 549
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 60,810,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 527,925
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 614,477
• PEG Ratio: 0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 21.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.06
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.28
• 1Y Price Target: $17.50
• Price Target Upside: 52.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.88
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $587.37M

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(8.70% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven primarily by improving profitability and strong cash generation, but is held back by high leverage and a thin equity cushion. Earnings-call commentary was a meaningful positive (record fundraising, AUM growth, margin expansion, and shareholder returns/deleveraging), while technicals are only moderately supportive and valuation appears somewhat rich despite the solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Consistently strong operating and free cash flow, including a step-up in 2025, provides durable internal funding for growth, buybacks and debt paydown. Reliable cash conversion reduces dependence on external financing and supports capital allocation even if fee timing is lumpy.

Record fundraising and AUM growth

Record $10.7B fundraising and double-digit AUM growth reflect durable distribution and product capabilities across channels. Growing fee-paying and contracted not-yet-fee-paying AUM creates a multi-period pipeline that should support sustainable management-fee revenue expansion.

Margin expansion & operating leverage

Improving FRE margins show the scalable nature of the business: fixed-cost dilution on rising AUM and higher-margin private markets should lift long-run profitability. Structural margin gains increase free cash flow per dollar of revenue, aiding reinvestment and shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

High leverage, thin equity cushion

Elevated debt and a recently restored but small equity base limit financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to market or fee shocks. High leverage raises refinancing and covenant risk, constraining capacity for opportunistic M&A or sustained buybacks during downturns.

Revenue and earnings volatility

Historically uneven top-line and episodic profitability weaken predictability of fee income and carried interest. For an alternatives manager, this variability complicates forecasting, erodes reliability of distributable earnings, and can hinder consistent capital allocation decisions.

Carry timing and limited near-term fees

Performance-fee and carried interest are inherently lumpy; near-term light realizations and limited catch-up fees reduce fee visibility and compress short-term FRE. Persistent timing uncertainty on carry can meaningfully swing cash flow and reported earnings across periods.

GCM Grosvenor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GCM Grosvenor Inc. is global alternative asset management solutions provider. The firm primarily provides its services to pooled investment vehicles. It also provides its services to investment companies, high net worth individuals, pension and profit sharing plans and state or municipal government entities. The firm invests in equity and alternative investment markets of the United States and internationally. The firm invests in multi-strategy, credit-focused, equity-focused, macro-focused, commodity-focused, and other specialty portfolios. It focuses in hedge fund asset classes, private equity, real estate, and/or infrastructure, credit and absolute return strategies. It also focuses in primary fund investments, secondary fund investments, and co-investments with a focus on buyout, distressed debt, mezzanine, venture capital/growth equity investments. The firm seeks to do seed investments in small, emerging, and diverse private equity firms. The firm seeks to make regionally-focused investments in middle-market buyout. It prefers to invest in aerospace and defense, advanced electronics, information technology, biosciences, and advanced materials. It focuses on Ohio and the Midwest region. The firm employs fundamental and quantitative analysis. GCM Grosvenor Inc. was founded in 1971 and is based in Chicago, Illinois with additional offices in North America, Asia, Australia and Europe.

How the Company Makes Money

GCM Grosvenor generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees associated with the assets under management (AUM). The management fees are typically charged as a percentage of AUM, providing a steady income stream based on the total capital managed for clients. Performance fees, on the other hand, are contingent on the investment performance exceeding a predefined benchmark, allowing the company to capitalize on successful investments. Additionally, GCMG may earn advisory fees for providing investment consulting services and may engage in co-investment opportunities alongside clients, further enhancing its revenue. Strategic partnerships with institutional investors and a strong track record in alternative investments also contribute significantly to its earnings.

GCM Grosvenor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability rebounded meaningfully in 2025 and cash generation is consistently strong (good cash conversion and higher 2025 operating/FCF). The major offset is balance-sheet risk: high leverage and only recently positive equity leave a thin capital cushion and below-average financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Profitability improved meaningfully in 2025, with much stronger operating and net margins versus 2024 and a return to solid operating earnings after a weaker 2023. Revenue also grew in 2024 and 2025, supporting the earnings rebound. Offsetting this, the multi-year revenue path is uneven (including a sharp decline in 2022) and earnings quality has been volatile historically, with losses/very weak operating performance in 2020 and 2023.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key concern: debt is high relative to equity, and equity was negative for several years before turning slightly positive in 2025, which signals a thinner capital cushion than peers. Total debt has risen over time, while equity remains small versus the balance sheet size, leaving the company more exposed to downturns or fee pressure. A positive inflection in 2025 helps, but overall balance-sheet strength remains below average.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength, with strong operating cash flow and free cash flow in each year shown, including a step-up in 2025. Cash flow has generally tracked (and often exceeded) reported earnings, indicating good cash conversion. The main weakness is volatility in free cash flow growth (notably a decline in 2023 and 2025 after growth in 2024), suggesting variability in underlying cash drivers.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	557.57M	523.47M	451.99M	452.52M	577.56M
Gross Profit	553.14M	235.40M	95.94M	175.21M	243.73M
EBITDA	182.15M	77.64M	4.93M	116.26M	177.17M
Net Income	45.37M	18.70M	12.77M	19.82M	21.48M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	813.76M	612.73M	504.94M	488.93M	581.62M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	242.12M	89.45M	44.35M	85.16M	96.19M
Total Debt	480.23M	485.92M	426.21M	403.15M	390.52M
Total Liabilities	686.33M	703.07M	616.17M	582.94M	637.42M
Stockholders Equity	26.99M	-27.62M	-27.63M	-19.82M	-25.71M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	183.54M	132.04M	88.30M	215.73M	178.23M
Operating Cash Flow	183.54M	148.77M	92.06M	216.51M	178.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-26.51M	-31.83M	-18.84M	-10.07M	-28.11M
Financing Cash Flow	-4.86M	-70.38M	-113.66M	-215.07M	-251.27M

GCM Grosvenor Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 11.50
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCMG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.17, above the 50-day MA of 11.30, and below the 200-day MA of 11.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GCMG.

GCM Grosvenor Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAX	69 Neutral	$1.99B	23.09	15.57%	3.78%	22.09%	58.98%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
GSBD	66 Neutral	$1.03B	8.89	7.96%	17.34%	-16.58%	65.24%
CNS	65 Neutral	$3.49B	22.83	31.53%	3.92%	12.73%	19.01%
APAM	65 Neutral	$3.23B	9.87	63.64%	8.72%	5.46%	2.10%
GCMG	62 Neutral	$2.33B	27.60	―	3.91%	18.33%	109.57%
HTGC	62 Neutral	$2.67B	7.83	16.02%	10.00%	-15.32%	-12.29%