Plains GP Holdings LP (PAGP)
NASDAQ:PAGP
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Plains GP Holdings
(NASDAQ:PAGP)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$25.00
â–²(10.18% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/14/26
The score is primarily supported by strong, consistent cash generation and a constructive earnings outlook featuring raised 2026 guidance and expected deleveraging from the NGL sale proceeds. Technicals are mildly supportive with price holding above major moving averages. The main offset is valuation risk from a high P/E despite an attractive dividend yield, alongside thin margins and historically inconsistent leverage.
Positive Factors
Consistent Free Cash Flow
Sustained TTM operating cash flow and FCF provide durable coverage for distributions and debt service. Consistent free cash generation (FCF ~0.83x net income) supports capital allocation, funds maintenance and growth capex, and underpins long‑term financial flexibility versus peers.
Negative Factors
Thin Profitability Margins
Very low margins mean limited buffer against throughput declines or tariff pressure. Structural thinness constrains retained earnings, reduces reinvestment headroom, and makes distributions and earnings more sensitive to volume volatility or modest cost inflation over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent Free Cash Flow
Sustained TTM operating cash flow and FCF provide durable coverage for distributions and debt service. Consistent free cash generation (FCF ~0.83x net income) supports capital allocation, funds maintenance and growth capex, and underpins long‑term financial flexibility versus peers.
Read all positive factors
Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.14B
Dividend Yield8.03%
Average Volume (3M)1.88M
Price to Earnings (P/E)60.1
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth-9.94%
EPS Growth34.19%
CountryUS
Employees5,000
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.98
Shares Outstanding197,904,130
10 Day Avg. Volume1,808,493
30 Day Avg. Volume1,876,903
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)2.82
Price to Sales (P/S)0.09
P/FCF Ratio1.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.67Price Target Upside4.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$53.38B
Plains GP Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Plains GP Holdings, L.P., through its subsidiary, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)...
How the Company Makes Money
PAGP makes money primarily by receiving distributions and other economic benefits derived from its ownership interests in Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA). In practice, PAGP’s cash generation is tied to PAA’s ability to generate operating ...
Plains GP Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive outlook driven by strong first-quarter results, an upwardly revised 2026 EBITDA guidance, significant expected NGL sale proceeds (~$3.3 billion) enabling meaningful deleveraging, solid free cash flow expectations (~$1.85 billion) and on‑track cost and synergy initiatives. Near‑term headwinds include one‑time weather and operational impacts (~$49 million), elevated pre‑sale leverage (4.1x), regulatory uncertainty around the Keyera transaction, natural gas takeaway constraints in the Permian that limit near‑term volume growth, and limited immediate benefit from higher commodity prices due to prior hedging. Overall, the positives (guidance raise, cash generation, deleveraging, cost savings and Cactus III benefits) outweigh the noted near‑term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Q1 EBITDA and Segment Performance
Reported first quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains GP Holdings of $730 million; crude oil segment adjusted EBITDA of $582 million and NGL segment adjusted EBITDA of $145 million.
Negative Updates
Weather, Maintenance and MVC Timing Headwinds
One-off items in Q1 (winter weather impacts in the Permian, system maintenance, and timing of minimum volume commitments) produced a roughly $49 million negative impact; weather-related shut-ins are unrecoverable for the quarter, though some production flush may return later.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q1 EBITDA and Segment Performance
Reported first quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains GP Holdings of $730 million; crude oil segment adjusted EBITDA of $582 million and NGL segment adjusted EBITDA of $145 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised full‑year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $130 million to a midpoint of $2.88 billion after reporting Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $730 million (crude segment $582 million; NGL $145 million), and now expects NGL EBITDA of $170 million (after a $45 million Q1 outperformance and an NGL divestiture targeted for May 2026). They left growth capital at $350 million, increased maintenance capital to $185 million (reflecting ownership of NGL assets into May), and reiterated pro forma Q1 leverage of 4.1x that would fall to ~3.5x post‑NGL sale and is expected to migrate toward the low end of the 3.25x–3.75x target range by year‑end. For 2026 they forecast roughly $1.85 billion of adjusted free cash flow (excluding working capital changes and NGL sale proceeds), anticipate net NGL sale proceeds of about $3.3 billion (≈$100 million above prior estimates) to be used to pay down just over $3 billion of debt (term loan, CP and a $750 million note), do not expect a special distribution due to Cactus III tax mitigation, and remain on track for $100 million of cost efficiencies ($50 million in 2026 and $50 million in 2027).Plains GP Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 45.26B | 44.26B | 50.07B | 48.71B | 57.34B | 42.08B |
| Gross Profit | 2.50B | 2.67B | 3.49B | 3.13B | 3.20B | 2.80B |
| EBITDA | 2.63B | 2.81B | 2.68B | 3.05B | 2.78B | 1.91B |
| Net Income | 195.00M | 260.00M | 103.00M | 198.00M | 168.00M | 60.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 32.76B | 31.28B | 27.76B | 28.60B | 29.21B | 29.98B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 172.00M | 329.00M | 349.00M | 453.00M | 404.00M | 456.00M |
| Total Debt | 11.58B | 11.49B | 7.93B | 8.03B | 8.82B | 9.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 18.81B | 17.06B | 13.44B | 13.63B | 14.57B | 15.80B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.27B | 1.34B | 1.35B | 1.55B | 1.52B | 1.53B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.12B | 2.29B | 1.84B | 2.14B | 1.95B | 1.66B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.71B | 2.93B | 2.48B | 2.72B | 2.40B | 1.99B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.81B | -3.36B | -875.00M | -702.00M | -526.00M | 386.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -168.00M | 399.00M | -1.70B | -1.97B | -1.93B | -1.98B |
Plains GP Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
22.69
Price Trends
23.44
Positive
21.96
Positive
19.68
Positive
Market Momentum
0.46
Negative
68.49
Neutral
88.18
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.84, below the 50-day MA of 23.44, and above the 200-day MA of 19.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAGP.
Plains GP Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $18.12B | 12.00 | 34.98% | 9.13% | 11.43% | -8.64% | |
80 Outperform | $15.18B | 26.36 | 9.82% | 2.70% | 22.22% | 23.30% | |
76 Outperform | $8.26B | 14.33 | 64.33% | 8.45% | 7.06% | 13.61% | |
73 Outperform | $10.49B | 22.84 | 20.38% | 4.98% | 8.14% | -0.91% | |
70 Outperform | $16.46B | 25.93 | 11.77% | 8.54% | -9.94% | 43.70% | |
66 Neutral | $19.14B | 60.09 | 14.67% | 8.03% | -9.94% | 34.19% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
PAGP
Plains GP Holdings
25.12
8.70
53.00%
PAA
Plains All American
23.33
8.00
52.23%
WES
Western Midstream Partners
46.02
10.86
30.87%
AM
Antero Midstream
22.08
4.38
24.75%
HESM
Hess Midstream Partners
40.05
4.97
14.18%
DTM
DT Midstream
148.76
49.18
49.39%
Plains GP Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Plains GP Holdings Adds Veteran Executive to Board
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 11, 2026, Plains All American Pipeline and Plains GP Holdings appointed veteran energy executive Cynthia B. Taylor as an independent Class III director of PAA GP Holdings’ board. She will also sit on the Compensation Committee and the...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Plains GP Finalizes Canadian NGL Sale, Refocuses on Crude
Positive
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, a Plains All American subsidiary completed the previously announced sale of Plains Midstream Canada ULC, which held substantially all of its Canadian NGL business, to Keyera Corp. for approximately CAD 5.13 billion (about USD 3.76...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Plains GP Holdings Raises 2026 Outlook on Strong Q1
Positive
May 8, 2026
Plains All American and Plains GP Holdings reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 8, 2026, posting net income attributable to PAA of $152 million, operating cash flow of $418 million and Adjusted EBITDA attributable to PAA of $730 million, alo...
Other
Plains GP Holdings Reports New Material Definitive Agreement
Neutral
Mar 3, 2026
The information provided from Plains GP Holdings is incomplete and does not contain any substantive details about the company’s specific announcement, operational changes, financial results, or strategic initiatives. As a result, it is not p...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.