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Plains GP Holdings (PAGP)
NASDAQ:PAGP
US Market
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Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) AI Stock Analysis

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PAGP

Plains GP Holdings

(NASDAQ:PAGP)

Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
â–²(4.88% Upside)
Plains GP Holdings' overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with strong operational efficiency but challenges in profitability and revenue growth. The technical analysis suggests a lack of strong momentum, while the valuation indicates potential overvaluation offset by a strong dividend yield. The earnings call provided positive strategic insights but highlighted some operational challenges.

Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Plains GP Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPlains GP Holdings (PAGP) is a publicly traded master limited partnership that operates in the energy sector, primarily focused on providing midstream logistics services for the transportation, storage, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and refined products. The company operates an extensive network of pipelines, terminals, and storage facilities across North America, facilitating the efficient movement of hydrocarbons from production sites to end-users. PAGP's operations are crucial for maintaining the supply chain in the energy sector, ensuring that producers and consumers can engage in seamless transactions.
How the Company Makes MoneyPlains GP Holdings generates revenue primarily through its midstream services, which include the transportation and storage of crude oil and natural gas liquids. The company earns fees based on the volume of products transported and stored, providing a stable income stream. Key revenue streams include fees from long-term transportation contracts, which offer predictable cash flows, as well as spot market transactions that can yield higher returns during periods of increased demand. Additionally, PAGP benefits from partnerships with a range of producers and refiners, allowing it to leverage existing infrastructure and expand its service offerings. The company's financial performance is also influenced by the overall health of the energy market, including fluctuations in commodity prices and production levels.

Plains GP Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 08, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -1.14%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted solid earnings and strategic moves such as the significant NGL business sale and successful bolt-on acquisitions. However, it also pointed out challenges in the NGL segment performance, contract roll-offs affecting future revenues, and guidance expectations in the lower half of the range.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid Second Quarter Adjusted EBITDA
Reported second quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains of $672 million.
Significant NGL Business Sale
Announced sale of substantially all NGL business to Keyera for approximately $3.75 billion, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026.
Successful Bolt-On Acquisition Strategy
Completed 5 bolt-on transactions year-to-date totaling approximately $800 million, including a 20% interest in BridgeTex Pipeline Company LLC for $100 million.
Permian Volume Growth
Crude Oil segment adjusted EBITDA of $580 million benefited from Permian volume growth and contributions from recent acquisitions.
Negative Updates
Lower NGL Segment Performance
Reported NGL segment adjusted EBITDA of $87 million, stepping down sequentially due to normal seasonality and lower quarter-on-quarter frac spreads.
Contract Roll-offs Impacting Second Half
Contract roll-offs of Cactus II, Cactus I, and Sunrise in the second half of the year, affecting revenue despite recontracted volumes.
Guidance on Lower Half of Range
Full year 2025 EBITDA guidance in the range of $2.8 billion to $2.95 billion, with expectations to be in the lower half of the range.
Company Guidance
During Plains All American's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance metrics including a full-year 2025 EBITDA range of $2.8 billion to $2.95 billion, with expectations to come in the lower half of this range. The company reported second quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains of $672 million, with the crude oil segment contributing $580 million and the NGL segment $87 million. Plains anticipates generating approximately $870 million of adjusted free cash flow for 2025, excluding changes in assets and liabilities, and revised its growth capital guidance to $475 million, reflecting an increase of $75 million due to new projects and weather delays. The company also announced the acquisition of an additional 20% interest in BridgeTex Pipeline Company LLC for $100 million, bringing their overall interest to 40%. Plains completed five bolt-on transactions year-to-date totaling approximately $800 million, and highlighted plans to redeploy $3 billion in net proceeds from the sale of its NGL business to Keyera, focusing on bolt-on M&A, optimizing capital structure, and potential repurchases of preferred and common units.

Plains GP Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Plains GP Holdings demonstrates solid operational performance with strong cash flow generation. While revenue and operational margins are improving, the company faces challenges with high leverage. Continued focus on cost management and debt reduction could enhance financial stability and profitability.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Plains GP Holdings shows a stable revenue base with a slight increase in TTM revenue compared to the previous year. The gross profit margin improved significantly in the TTM period, indicating better cost management. However, the net profit margin remains low, reflecting challenges in translating revenue into net income. The EBITDA margin is healthy, showing strong operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio, which indicates significant leverage and potential financial risk. However, the return on equity has improved, suggesting better utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is low, highlighting reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Plains GP Holdings demonstrates strong cash flow generation, with a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio. The free cash flow has grown steadily, indicating effective cash management and investment strategies. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust, reflecting efficient conversion of profits into cash.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue47.80B50.07B48.71B57.34B42.04B23.29B
Gross Profit14.24B3.49B3.13B3.20B2.80B2.20B
EBITDA2.73B2.68B3.05B2.78B1.91B-1.51B
Net Income136.00M103.00M198.00M168.00M60.00M-568.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets28.30B27.76B28.60B29.21B29.98B25.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments460.00M349.00M453.00M404.00M452.00M25.00M
Total Debt8.80B7.93B8.03B8.82B9.64B10.61B
Total Liabilities14.18B13.44B13.63B14.57B15.80B14.76B
Stockholders Equity18.77B1.35B1.55B14.64B1.53B1.48B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.10B1.84B2.14B1.95B1.66B772.00M
Operating Cash Flow2.44B2.48B2.72B2.40B1.99B1.51B
Investing Cash Flow-1.52B-875.00M-702.00M-526.00M386.00M-1.09B
Financing Cash Flow-1.33B-1.70B-1.97B-1.93B-1.98B-430.00M

Plains GP Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price19.07
Price Trends
50DMA
19.02
Positive
100DMA
18.66
Positive
200DMA
18.76
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
47.61
Neutral
STOCH
20.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.31, above the 50-day MA of 19.02, and above the 200-day MA of 18.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAGP.

Plains GP Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$8.78B15.5252.91%6.72%9.02%17.28%
78
Outperform
$8.74B19.4221.65%4.95%7.09%17.53%
77
Outperform
$14.55B11.7438.42%9.23%7.11%-16.14%
75
Outperform
$10.50B27.798.48%3.00%15.28%-9.99%
69
Neutral
$12.42B19.538.34%8.20%-4.31%-17.80%
65
Neutral
$14.83B8.533.10%5.45%4.59%-62.54%
62
Neutral
$14.34B27.478.16%7.64%-4.31%-16.62%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PAGP
Plains GP Holdings
19.07
1.77
10.23%
PAA
Plains All American
17.78
1.75
10.92%
WES
Western Midstream Partners
38.69
3.79
10.86%
AM
Antero Midstream
18.20
4.60
33.82%
HESM
Hess Midstream Partners
42.14
8.82
26.47%
DTM
DT Midstream
103.80
31.83
44.23%

Plains GP Holdings Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Plains GP Holdings Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results
Positive
Aug 8, 2025

On August 8, 2025, Plains GP Holdings reported solid second-quarter results for 2025, with a net income of $210 million and net cash from operating activities of $694 million. The company announced the divestiture of its Canadian NGL business for $3.75 billion USD, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, which will enhance its financial flexibility and streamline operations. Additionally, Plains acquired an additional 20% interest in BridgeTex Pipeline Company, strengthening its position in the Permian Basin.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAGP) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Plains GP Holdings stock, see the PAGP Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Plains GP Holdings Sells Canadian NGL Business
Positive
Jun 17, 2025

On June 17, 2025, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., a subsidiary of Plains GP Holdings, announced a definitive agreement to sell its Canadian NGL business to Keyera Corp. for approximately C$5.15 billion. The transaction, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, will allow Plains to retain its NGL assets in the U.S. and all crude oil assets in Canada. This strategic move positions Plains as a premier crude oil midstream entity, enhancing its financial flexibility and free cash flow profile while reducing commodity exposure and working capital requirements. The proceeds will support capital allocation strategies, including potential acquisitions and unit repurchases.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAGP) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Plains GP Holdings stock, see the PAGP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Plains GP Holdings Holds Successful Annual Shareholder Meeting
Positive
May 23, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Plains GP Holdings held its annual meeting for Class A, B, and C shareholders, where key decisions were made regarding the election of four Class II directors, the ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and the approval of 2024 executive compensation. The meeting saw significant shareholder participation, with approximately 83.2% of shares represented, and all proposals received strong support, indicating shareholder confidence in the company’s governance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAGP) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Plains GP Holdings stock, see the PAGP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 14, 2025