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Plains GP Holdings (PAGP)
NASDAQ:PAGP
US Market

Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) AI Stock Analysis

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Plains GP Holdings

(NASDAQ:PAGP)

Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
â–²( 3.87% Upside)
Plains GP Holdings' overall stock score is driven by solid financial performance and a strong dividend yield. However, bearish technical indicators and market uncertainties temper the score. The company's strategic initiatives and growth outlook are positive, but caution is advised due to economic volatility and technical bearishness.

Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Plains GP Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPlains GP Holdings, L.P., through its subsidiary, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs). The company engages in the transportation of crude oil and NGLs on pipelines, gathering systems, and trucks. As of December 31, 2021, this segment owned and leased assets comprising 18,300 miles of crude oil and NGL pipelines and gathering systems; 38 million barrels of above-ground tank capacity; and 1,275 trailers. It engages in the provision of storage, terminalling, and throughput services primarily for crude oil, NGLs, and natural gas; NGL fractionation and isomerization services; and natural gas and condensate processing services. As of December 31, 2021, this segment owned and operated approximately 74 million barrels of crude oil storage capacity; 28 million barrels of NGL storage capacity; four natural gas processing plants; a condensate processing facility; nine fractionation plants; 16 NGL rail terminals; four marine facilities; and 110 miles of pipelines. As of December 31, 2021, this segment owned 15 million barrels of crude oil and 2 NGL linefill; 3 million barrels of crude oil and 1 NGL linefill in pipelines owned by third parties and other inventory; 640 trucks and 1,275 trailers; and 3,900 NGL railcars. The company offers logistics services to producers, refiners, and other customers. PAA GP Holdings LLC operates as a general partner of the company. Plains GP Holdings, L.P. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyPlains GP Holdings makes money primarily through its ownership interest in Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., which generates revenue by charging fees for the transportation, storage, and marketing of crude oil and natural gas. The company's extensive network of pipelines and storage facilities allows it to provide essential midstream services, earning steady and predictable income streams. Additionally, the company benefits from long-term contracts and tariffs that provide stable revenue. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures further enhance its financial performance by expanding its operational reach and service offerings. Plains GP Holdings also capitalizes on market opportunities by engaging in the marketing and logistics of crude oil, leveraging market fluctuations to optimize its earnings.

Plains GP Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Plains GP Holdings demonstrates solid financial health with strong cash flow generation and profitability improvements. The income statement reflects improving margins and moderate revenue growth. The balance sheet is stable but could benefit from optimizing leverage. Cash flow performance is a highlight, with strong operational efficiency and capital utilization.
Income Statement
68
Positive
The company's gross profit margin for TTM is healthy at 51.41%, and the net profit margin improved significantly to 1.34% from the previous annual report's 0.41%. However, overall revenue showed a modest TTM growth rate of 3.25%. Stability in EBIT and EBITDA margins at 2.83% and 4.54% respectively indicates consistent operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 49.29% for TTM, which is a positive indicator of stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low at 0.024, indicating potential under-leverage. ROE for TTM stood at 5.14%, suggesting moderate returns on equity.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
The company demonstrated a robust free cash flow growth rate of 14.82% TTM, indicating strong cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 3.69, showcasing efficient cash operations. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.69, suggesting effective capital use.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
50.07B48.71B57.34B42.04B23.29B
Gross Profit
3.49B3.13B3.20B2.80B2.20B
EBIT
1.17B1.50B769.00M842.00M589.00M
EBITDA
2.68B3.05B2.78B1.91B-1.51B
Net Income Common Stockholders
103.00M198.00M1.16B600.00M-2.44B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
349.00M453.00M404.00M452.00M25.00M
Total Assets
27.76B28.60B29.21B28.61B24.50B
Total Debt
7.93B8.03B8.75B8.74B9.70B
Net Debt
7.58B7.57B8.35B8.29B9.67B
Total Liabilities
13.44B13.63B14.57B15.80B14.76B
Stockholders Equity
19.24B1.55B14.64B14.18B11.19B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.84B2.16B1.95B1.66B772.00M
Operating Cash Flow
2.48B2.72B2.40B1.99B1.51B
Investing Cash Flow
-875.00M-702.00M-526.00M386.00M-1.09B
Financing Cash Flow
-1.70B-1.97B-1.93B-1.98B-430.00M

Plains GP Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price17.81
Price Trends
50DMA
19.23
Negative
100DMA
19.96
Negative
200DMA
19.05
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.32
Negative
RSI
41.53
Neutral
STOCH
13.82
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAGP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 17.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.18, below the 50-day MA of 19.23, and below the 200-day MA of 19.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PAGP.

Plains GP Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (57)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
DTDTM
79
Outperform
$10.57B28.468.29%2.91%10.83%-10.47%
AMAM
78
Outperform
$8.94B21.6919.71%4.83%5.03%7.15%
WEWES
77
Outperform
$14.85B11.6439.79%11.31%11.48%-5.67%
76
Outperform
$8.22B15.0049.74%7.12%8.77%15.22%
PAPAA
71
Outperform
$11.77B18.019.43%7.96%3.40%-20.48%
59
Neutral
$13.54B24.2710.09%7.48%3.40%-15.90%
57
Neutral
$7.06B3.07-3.45%5.82%0.59%-50.58%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PAGP
Plains GP Holdings
17.81
0.93
5.51%
PAA
Plains All American
16.74
0.72
4.49%
WES
Western Midstream Partners
38.94
3.60
10.19%
AM
Antero Midstream
18.65
4.99
36.53%
HESM
Hess Midstream Partners
38.16
4.80
14.39%
DTM
DT Midstream
104.07
40.01
62.46%

Plains GP Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 09, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -2.36%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 01, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with strong performance in terms of EBITDA growth and strategic acquisitions. However, significant market volatility and weather impacts posed challenges. Despite uncertainties, the company remains optimistic about its growth initiatives and financial strategy.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid First Quarter Performance
Reported a solid first quarter performance with adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains up $754 million.
Strategic Acquisitions
Acquired the remaining 50% equity in the Cheyenne pipeline and Black Knight Midstream for approximately $55 million, enhancing asset base and growth strategy.
NGL Segment Expansion
Transitioned to more fee-based earnings with the completion of a 30,000 barrel a day fractionation bottleneck project at Fort Sask, supported by long-term customer commitments.
Strong Cash Flow Generation
Expected to generate strong cash flow for the year with adjusted free cash flow of about $1.1 billion.
Efficient Growth Initiatives
Continued execution of efficient growth strategy, maintaining a flexible balance sheet and returning capital to unitholders.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty
Ongoing uncertainty on trade tariffs and dissension among OPEC members have resulted in a lower price commodity environment.
Impact of Winter Weather
First quarter crude oil segment adjusted EBITDA was impacted by winter weather and higher than expected refinery downtime, driving volumes below expectations.
Potential Lower End of Guidance
Assuming a $60 to $65 WTI environment persists, 2025 EBITDA guidance and Permian growth outlook could be in the lower half of the respective ranges.
Company Guidance
During the Plains All American and Plains GP Holdings First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $754 million, highlighting resilience amidst market volatility driven by trade tariffs and OPEC dynamics. They expect 2025 EBITDA and Permian growth to be in the lower half of their ranges, assuming a $60-$65 WTI environment. Their NGL segment is largely hedged at 80% for 2025, insulating it from lower commodity prices. Plains continues to execute its efficient growth strategy, generating significant free cash flow and maintaining a flexible balance sheet with a low leverage ratio. They completed a 30,000 barrel a day fractionation project at Fort Sask and made strategic bolt-on acquisitions, including the Cheyenne pipeline and Black Knight Midstream, totaling approximately $55 million, enhancing their asset base and supporting long-term customer commitments. The company remains focused on capital discipline, with a strong balance sheet offering the capacity for further bolt-on acquisitions, supporting a robust cash flow outlook with an expected $1.1 billion adjusted free cash flow for the year.

Plains GP Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Plains GP Holdings Holds Successful Annual Shareholder Meeting
Positive
May 23, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Plains GP Holdings held its annual meeting for Class A, B, and C shareholders, where key decisions were made regarding the election of four Class II directors, the ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and the approval of 2024 executive compensation. The meeting saw significant shareholder participation, with approximately 83.2% of shares represented, and all proposals received strong support, indicating shareholder confidence in the company’s governance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAGP) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Plains GP Holdings stock, see the PAGP Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Plains GP Holdings Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Results
Positive
May 9, 2025

On May 9, 2025, Plains GP Holdings reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a net income of $443 million and net cash from operations of $639 million. The company completed two strategic acquisitions, enhancing its market position and operational capabilities, and maintained a strong financial performance with a leverage ratio at the low end of its target range. These developments underscore Plains’ commitment to financial discipline and growth amid market volatility.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.