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Plains GP Holdings (PAGP)
NASDAQ:PAGP
US Market

Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) AI Stock Analysis

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PAGP

Plains GP Holdings

(NASDAQ:PAGP)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$20.50
â–²(2.45% Upside)
Plains GP Holdings' overall stock score is driven by strong financial stability and positive technical indicators. The strategic acquisition of EPIC Crude Holdings further strengthens its market position. However, the relatively high P/E ratio suggests caution regarding valuation. The attractive dividend yield provides a compensating factor for income-focused investors.
Positive Factors
Strategic Acquisition
The acquisition of EPIC Crude Holdings enhances Plains GP Holdings' operational capacity and market influence, positioning it as a key operator in the crude oil pipeline sector, which could drive future growth and synergy capture.
Cash Flow Generation
Strong cash flow generation indicates efficient operations and provides financial flexibility, supporting investment in growth opportunities and debt management, which is crucial for long-term sustainability.
Stable Revenue Streams
Take-or-pay contracts ensure stable revenue streams by securing fees regardless of volume fluctuations, providing financial stability and predictability, which is beneficial for long-term planning and investment.
Negative Factors
Rising Debt Levels
The increase in debt through new offerings could strain financial resources and limit flexibility, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth or weather economic downturns.
Declining Revenue Growth
A decline in revenue growth suggests challenges in market expansion or competitive pressures, which could affect future profitability and market positioning if not addressed.
Low Profit Margins
Low profit margins indicate challenges in converting revenue into profit, which may limit reinvestment capacity and shareholder returns, potentially impacting long-term financial health.

Plains GP Holdings (PAGP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Plains GP Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPlains GP Holdings, L.P., through its subsidiary, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P., owns and operates midstream energy infrastructure in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs). The company engages in the transportation of crude oil and NGLs on pipelines, gathering systems, and trucks. As of December 31, 2021, this segment owned and leased assets comprising 18,300 miles of crude oil and NGL pipelines and gathering systems; 38 million barrels of above-ground tank capacity; and 1,275 trailers. It engages in the provision of storage, terminalling, and throughput services primarily for crude oil, NGLs, and natural gas; NGL fractionation and isomerization services; and natural gas and condensate processing services. As of December 31, 2021, this segment owned and operated approximately 74 million barrels of crude oil storage capacity; 28 million barrels of NGL storage capacity; four natural gas processing plants; a condensate processing facility; nine fractionation plants; 16 NGL rail terminals; four marine facilities; and 110 miles of pipelines. As of December 31, 2021, this segment owned 15 million barrels of crude oil and 2 NGL linefill; 3 million barrels of crude oil and 1 NGL linefill in pipelines owned by third parties and other inventory; 640 trucks and 1,275 trailers; and 3,900 NGL railcars. The company offers logistics services to producers, refiners, and other customers. PAA GP Holdings LLC operates as a general partner of the company. Plains GP Holdings, L.P. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyPlains GP Holdings generates revenue primarily through its midstream services, which include the transportation of crude oil and natural gas liquids via pipelines and gathering systems. The company earns fees based on the volume of product transported and stored, which are typically structured as take-or-pay contracts, ensuring a stable revenue stream. Key revenue streams include transportation fees, storage fees, and terminal services. Additionally, PAGP benefits from long-term contracts with major oil and gas producers, providing a degree of revenue stability. The company also engages in joint ventures and partnerships with other companies in the energy sector, which can enhance its operational capabilities and expand its market reach, further contributing to its earnings.

Plains GP Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 08, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call provided a balanced view of Plains' ongoing strategic initiatives, including solid financial performance and significant transactions like the NGL business sale. However, challenges such as the decline in the NGL segment and cautious guidance for the year indicate areas of concern.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid Second Quarter Adjusted EBITDA
Plains reported a solid second quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to Plains of $672 million.
NGL Business Sale
Execution of definitive agreements to sell substantially all of the NGL business to Keyera for approximately USD 3.75 billion, with expected close in the first quarter of 2026.
Bolt-on Acquisition Strategy
Year-to-date, Plains completed 5 bolt-on transactions totaling approximately $800 million. Recently acquired an additional 20% interest in BridgeTex Pipeline Company LLC for $100 million.
Permian Volume Growth
Crude Oil segment adjusted EBITDA of $580 million benefited from Permian volume growth and contributions from recent bolt-on acquisitions.
Financial Flexibility and Strategy
Plains expects to generate approximately $870 million of adjusted free cash flow in 2025 and maintain financial flexibility for growth and capital allocation.
Negative Updates
NGL Segment Decline
Reported adjusted EBITDA of $87 million for the NGL segment, which stepped down sequentially due to normal seasonality and lower quarter-on-quarter frac spreads.
Guidance on Lower Range
Full year 2025 EBITDA guidance of $2.8 billion to $2.95 billion is expected to be in the lower half of the range, indicating cautious outlook.
Increased Growth Capital Guidance
2025 growth capital guidance increased by $75 million to $475 million due to new projects and weather delays, though maintenance capital is trending below initial forecast.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of 2025, Plains All American (PAA) reported an adjusted EBITDA of $672 million. The company announced the sale of its NGL business to Keyera for approximately $3.75 billion, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, which will result in a streamlined crude oil midstream entity with less commodity exposure. PAA plans to use around $3 billion of net proceeds for bolt-on M&A to expand its crude oil-focused portfolio and potential repurchases of Series A and B preferred units. The company also acquired an additional 20% interest in BridgeTex Pipeline for $100 million, increasing its overall interest to 40%. For the full year 2025, PAA maintained its EBITDA guidance range of $2.8 billion to $2.95 billion and expects to generate approximately $870 million of adjusted free cash flow, along with increasing its growth capital guidance to $475 million.

Plains GP Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Plains GP Holdings demonstrates resilience in its financial performance, with strengths in cash flow generation and a stable balance sheet. While the income statement shows some areas for improvement, particularly in profit margins, the company's ability to manage debt and generate cash flow positions it well for future growth.
Income Statement
Plains GP Holdings shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth, but the company maintains a positive EBIT and EBITDA margin, suggesting operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin remains low, indicating challenges in translating revenue into profit. The historical data shows fluctuating revenue growth rates, with a notable decline in 2020, but a recovery trend is visible in subsequent years.
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM period, indicating financial stability. The company has improved its leverage significantly compared to previous years, reducing potential financial risks. Return on equity is moderate, showing the company's ability to generate returns on shareholders' investments, although it has decreased from previous highs.
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement reveals a robust free cash flow growth in the TTM period, highlighting the company's ability to generate cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating efficient cash generation relative to reported earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also healthy, suggesting good cash conversion from profits.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue46.63B50.07B48.71B57.34B42.08B23.29B
Gross Profit2.94B3.49B3.13B3.20B2.80B2.20B
EBITDA2.77B2.68B3.05B2.78B1.91B-1.51B
Net Income186.00M103.00M198.00M168.00M60.00M-568.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets29.25B27.76B28.60B29.21B29.98B25.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.18B349.00M453.00M404.00M456.00M63.00M
Total Debt9.64B7.93B8.03B8.82B9.64B10.61B
Total Liabilities15.11B13.44B13.63B14.57B15.80B14.76B
Stockholders Equity1.34B1.35B1.55B1.52B1.53B1.46B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.19B1.84B2.14B1.95B1.66B772.00M
Operating Cash Flow2.87B2.48B2.72B2.40B1.99B1.51B
Investing Cash Flow-1.76B-875.00M-702.00M-526.00M386.00M-1.09B
Financing Cash Flow-573.00M-1.70B-1.97B-1.93B-1.98B-430.00M

Plains GP Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price20.01
Price Trends
50DMA
18.52
Positive
100DMA
18.15
Positive
200DMA
18.16
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.38
Negative
RSI
75.72
Negative
STOCH
94.18
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PAGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.17, above the 50-day MA of 18.52, and above the 200-day MA of 18.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.72 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PAGP.

Plains GP Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$16.83B12.2040.29%9.13%5.81%-13.58%
79
Outperform
$13.12B15.089.78%8.54%-7.53%9.74%
78
Outperform
$12.03B30.019.04%2.70%20.39%-3.85%
77
Outperform
$7.05B12.0759.81%8.45%10.78%19.10%
74
Outperform
$8.24B17.7422.52%4.98%8.70%21.42%
72
Outperform
$15.11B22.6310.33%8.03%-7.53%11.27%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
PAGP
Plains GP Holdings
20.17
1.10
5.77%
PAA
Plains All American
19.00
1.15
6.44%
WES
Western Midstream Partners
42.16
4.95
13.30%
AM
Antero Midstream
17.71
2.42
15.83%
HESM
Hess Midstream Partners
34.73
-2.39
-6.44%
DTM
DT Midstream
118.19
13.16
12.53%

Plains GP Holdings Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Plains GP Holdings Terminates EPIC Credit Agreement
Neutral
Dec 3, 2025

On October 31, 2025, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. acquired 100% of EPIC Crude Holdings, LP and its general partner, which own and operate the EPIC Crude Oil Pipeline. Subsequently, on December 1, 2025, PAA terminated the EPIC Credit Agreement and repaid all outstanding amounts. Additionally, PAA entered into a new $1.1 billion senior unsecured term loan agreement on November 26, 2025, with PNC Bank and other lenders, which includes covenants and conditions typical for such facilities. This move aligns with the company’s strategic financial management and operational restructuring, potentially impacting its financial obligations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAGP) stock is a Hold with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Plains GP Holdings stock, see the PAGP Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Plains GP Holdings Completes $750 Million Debt Offering
Neutral
Nov 14, 2025

On November 14, 2025, Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. and PAA Finance Corp. completed a public offering of $750 million in debt securities, comprising $300 million in 4.700% Senior Notes due 2031 and $450 million in 5.600% Senior Notes due 2036. These notes are additional issuances to previous notes issued in September 2025, bringing the total outstanding amounts to $1 billion for each series. The notes are senior unsecured obligations, with specific covenants and events of default outlined in the indenture. The offering was conducted under a shelf registration statement filed with the SEC, with Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and others acting as underwriters.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAGP) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Plains GP Holdings stock, see the PAGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Plains GP Holdings Completes Acquisition of EPIC Crude Holdings
Positive
Nov 6, 2025

On October 31, 2025, Plains GP Holdings completed the acquisition of a 100% equity interest in EPIC Crude Holdings and EPIC GP, the operators of the EPIC Crude Oil Pipeline, for a total of approximately $2.9 billion. This strategic move positions Plains GP Holdings as the sole operator of the EPIC Pipeline, enhancing its capacity to transport crude oil from key basins to the Gulf Coast, and potentially expanding its market influence with future pipeline capacity enhancements.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAGP) stock is a Buy with a $23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Plains GP Holdings stock, see the PAGP Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Plains GP Holdings Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Nov 5, 2025

On November 5, 2025, Plains GP Holdings announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results, reporting a net income of $441 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $669 million. The company also completed the acquisition of a 100% equity interest in EPIC Crude Holdings, which is expected to enhance synergy capture and cost savings, and plans to rename the system Cactus III. Additionally, Plains is in the process of divesting its Canadian NGL business, which is anticipated to close by the first quarter of 2026, as part of its strategy to streamline operations and focus on crude oil midstream services.

The most recent analyst rating on (PAGP) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Plains GP Holdings stock, see the PAGP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025