Oxford Square Capital (OXSQ) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $150.52M
• Dividend Yield: 24.14%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.39M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.27
• Revenue Growth: -177.91%
• EPS Growth: 55.08%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 87,510,730
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,480,864
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,390,810
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.34
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.70
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 21.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 58.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -16.08
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.28
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $40.98M

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(9.29% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (TTM loss and unusually poor cash-flow profile) and a negative earnings-call backdrop (material NAV decline and sharply higher losses). Technicals are mildly supportive and the very high dividend yield helps, but valuation remains risky given negative earnings.

Positive Factors

Stable income-focused BDC business model

OXSQ's core BDC model centers on contractual interest, CLO cash distributions and fee income, providing durable cash generation tied to underlying loan coupons and CLO waterfalls. That recurring income profile supports longer-term ability to pay distributions and deploy capital across credit cycles.

Consistent net investment income

Quarterly net investment income remained roughly steady despite marked portfolio losses, indicating core interest and distribution receipts are still producing operating income. Sustained NII supports coverage of fees and distributions and underpins the firm's ability to generate cash from lending positions over the medium term.

Active portfolio deployment and liquidity management

Management has been actively deploying capital (purchases ~$18M) while raising incremental liquidity via an ATM (~$7.9M). This shows deliberate balance-sheet management to fund opportunities and maintain flexibility, which supports the firm's permanent-capital stance and ability to adjust positioning over a multi-month horizon.

Negative Factors

Material NAV decline

A 13% quarterly NAV drop signals significant portfolio markdowns and erodes the equity base that supports distributions. Persistent NAV pressure can constrain future payout sustainability, raise refinancing or capital-raising needs, and indicate lingering mark-to-market risks in CLO and loan holdings over coming quarters.

Large realized and unrealized losses; CLO markdowns

Substantial realized/unrealized losses driven by CLO-equity markdowns reflect sensitivity to leveraged-loan market stress. CLO equity is volatile and can remain depressed while loan prices and defaults stay elevated, creating prolonged earnings and NAV volatility that impairs capital stability and investor returns.

Weak cash flow quality and rising leverage

TTM operating and free cash flow turned very negative while leverage increased to ~1.08, reducing financial flexibility. Poor cash generation plus higher debt elevates refinancing and coverage risk, limiting the company's ability to absorb further credit losses or opportunistically deploy capital over the medium term.

Oxford Square Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Oxford Square Capital Corp. is a business development company, operates as a closed-end, non-diversified management investment company. It is a private equity and mezzanine firm. The firm invests in both public and private companies. It invests in secured and unsecured senior debt, subordinated debt, junior subordinated debt, preferred stock, common stock and syndicated bank loans. The firm primarily invests in debt and/or equity securities of technology-related companies that operate in the computer software, Internet, information technology infrastructure and services, media, telecommunications and telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, hardware, technology-enabled services, semiconductor capital equipment, medical device technology, diversified technology, and networking systems sectors. It concentrates its investments in companies having annual revenues of less than $200 million and a market capitalization or enterprise value of less than $300 million. The firm invests between $5 million and $30 million per transaction. It seeks to exit its investments within 7 years. It serves as the investment adviser to TICC. Oxford Square Capital Corp., formerly known as TICC Capital Corp., was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.

How the Company Makes Money

Oxford Square Capital generates revenue primarily through interest income from its debt investments and capital gains from its equity investments. The company typically invests in senior secured loans, subordinated debt, and equity securities of middle-market companies, which allows it to earn interest payments and potential appreciation in equity value. A significant portion of its income is derived from the interest on loans that are often structured with favorable terms, providing a reliable income stream. Additionally, OXSQ may earn management fees from its investment activities, depending on its performance and asset management agreements. The company’s earnings can also be influenced by economic conditions and the performance of the underlying companies within its investment portfolio.

Oxford Square Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are high-risk in the latest TTM: net income swung to a sizeable loss with deeply negative margins, and cash-flow quality is extremely weak with very large negative operating/free cash flow. The balance sheet is workable but less resilient than last year as leverage rose (debt-to-equity ~1.08) and ROE turned negative.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): net income is a sizeable loss (-$18.7M) with deeply negative margins, a meaningful reversal from profitable 2023–2024. Revenue is up strongly in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (+17.9%), but the growth is not translating into earnings power. Results have also been volatile across the period (including a very weak 2022), which lowers confidence in consistency of returns.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate-to-elevated and has increased recently: debt-to-equity moved up to ~1.08 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from ~0.77 in 2024, while equity remains sizable (~$145M) against ~$307M of assets. Returns to shareholders have turned negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (negative return on equity), reflecting the earnings drawdown. Overall, the balance sheet looks workable but less resilient than last year due to higher leverage and current losses.

Cash Flow

Cash flow quality appears very weak in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with extremely large negative operating and free cash flow figures that overwhelm the otherwise stable, positive cash generation shown in 2020–2024. The magnitude and direction imply significant cash burn and/or abnormal period movements, which materially increases financial risk. While prior years showed operating cash flow generally covering reported profits well, the latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) cash profile is a major red flag.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	23.51M	17.81M	33.57M	-69.03M	37.18M
Gross Profit	19.17M	9.96M	22.75M	-81.38M	37.18M
EBITDA	-9.49M	5.88M	17.24M	-85.55M	26.60M
Net Income	-18.73M	5.88M	17.24M	-85.55M	39.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	306.74M	299.73M	277.67M	327.99M	433.51M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	51.93M	34.93M	5.74M	9.02M	9.02M
Total Debt	157.58M	123.60M	122.98M	186.32M	185.38M
Total Liabilities	161.33M	139.07M	126.36M	189.32M	188.91M
Stockholders Equity	145.40M	160.67M	151.31M	138.67M	244.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	18.34M	25.71M	26.72M	19.62M	16.69M
Operating Cash Flow	18.34M	25.71M	26.72M	19.62M	16.69M
Investing Cash Flow	-32.07M	0.00	38.97M	752.49K	-124.12M
Financing Cash Flow	30.75M	3.48M	-68.97M	-20.37M	57.31M

Oxford Square Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.83
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OXSQ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.75, above the 50-day MA of 1.77, and above the 200-day MA of 1.80, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.59 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OXSQ.

Oxford Square Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
WHF	63 Neutral	$162.53M	11.23	5.30%	21.24%	-55.82%	-4.97%
MRCC	59 Neutral	$103.57M	12.10	6.46%	14.03%	-34.92%	-132.22%
BCIC	57 Neutral	$92.53M	11.33	5.90%	16.60%	-5.23%	193.87%
OFS	56 Neutral	$41.94M	-1.93	-27.67%	25.87%	-14.76%	―
GECC	49 Neutral	$69.43M	-2.74	-24.20%	22.43%	47.01%	-179.46%
OXSQ	46 Neutral	$150.52M	-7.18	-12.27%	24.14%	-177.91%	55.08%

Oxford Square Capital Corporate Events

Oxford Square Declares Q2 2026 Monthly Distributions

Oxford Square Capital reported financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, showing a decline in net asset value per share to $1.69 from $1.95 on September 30, 2025, driven by net unrealized depreciation of about $16.0 million and net realized losses of $2.3 million. Net investment income held steady at $0.07 per share on slightly higher total investment income of $10.4 million, while portfolio yields on debt and CLO equity investments edged down modestly and one preferred equity position, with a fair value of about $5.0 million, moved to non-accrual status.

The board on February 26, 2026 declared monthly common stock distributions of $0.035 per share for April, May and June 2026, signaling a continuation of regular shareholder payouts despite pressure on NAV and accumulated losses. During the fourth quarter of 2025 the company was a net investor, with $18.0 million of purchases versus $7.4 million of repayments and no sales, and it raised approximately $7.9 million in net proceeds through an at-the-market equity offering, increasing shares outstanding to about 86.1 million and modestly bolstering its capital base amid a challenging valuation environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (OXSQ) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oxford Square Capital stock, see the OXSQ Stock Forecast page.