Great Elm Capital Corp (GECC)
NASDAQ:GECC
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Great Elm Capital
(NASDAQ:GECC)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(21.50% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back most by weak and volatile profitability alongside elevated leverage, despite improved recent cash generation. The latest earnings call was moderately constructive due to clear actions to protect/rebuild NAV and reduce refinancing risk, while technicals show positive momentum but near-term overbought conditions. Valuation is supported by a very high yield, but a negative P/E underscores underlying earnings risk.
Positive Factors
Deleveraging and extended debt maturity runway
Retiring near‑term notes and leaving no funded maturities until 2029 materially reduces refinancing and roll‑over risk. This gives management time to rebuild NAV, deploy capital opportunistically, and improve liquidity dynamics—durable credit relief for the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Elevated and persistent leverage
Sustained leverage near 1.6x amplifies NAV and earnings sensitivity to credit losses or mark volatility. High debt levels constrain capital flexibility, increase interest burden variability, and raise the chance that losses materially impair equity cushions during downturns over the coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Deleveraging and extended debt maturity runway
Retiring near‑term notes and leaving no funded maturities until 2029 materially reduces refinancing and roll‑over risk. This gives management time to rebuild NAV, deploy capital opportunistically, and improve liquidity dynamics—durable credit relief for the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Great Elm Capital (GECC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$82.94M
Dividend Yield22.43%
Average Volume (3M)81.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth2.83%
EPS Growth-679.99%
CountryUS
Employees12
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.66
Shares Outstanding13,892,045
10 Day Avg. Volume110,143
30 Day Avg. Volume81,279
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.77
Price to Sales (P/S)1.96
P/FCF Ratio-30.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue-20.52
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-8.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.50Price Target Upside2.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$43.07M
Great Elm Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Great Elm Capital Corp. is a business development company which specializes in loan and mezzanine, middle market investments. It invests in the debt instruments of middle market companies. The fund prefers to invest in media, commercial services a...
How the Company Makes Money
GECC primarily makes money by earning interest income and fee income from its investment portfolio. The largest and most recurring revenue stream is interest (and, where applicable, payment-in-kind interest) received on loans and debt securities i...
Great Elm Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive operational response to recent headwinds: management has prioritized protecting and rebuilding NAV through decisive actions — fee waivers, targeted deleveraging, a shift toward first‑lien secured positions, opportunistic share repurchases, and improved coverage/leverage metrics. These positives are counterbalanced by a quarter‑over‑quarter NAV decline driven by unrealized CLO and one private investment loss, CLO market volatility, and an underlying earnings run‑rate that benefits materially from incentive fee waivers. On balance, the company has strengthened its liquidity and capital structure and put in place measures to stabilize and rebuild NAV, but near‑term valuation and mark volatility remain risks.Positive Updates
Net Investment Income (NII) Growth
NII was $5.0M or $0.36 per share in Q1 2026 versus $4.4M or $0.31 per share in Q4 2025, a ~13% quarter‑over‑quarter increase (partially driven by the incentive fee waiver).
Negative Updates
Quarterly NAV Decline
Net assets were $107.5M or $7.74 per share as of March 31, 2026 versus $112.9M or $8.07 per share as of December 31, 2025 — a decline of ~4.8% in total net assets and ~4.1% on a per‑share NAV basis, driven primarily by unrealized losses.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Investment Income (NII) Growth
NII was $5.0M or $0.36 per share in Q1 2026 versus $4.4M or $0.31 per share in Q4 2025, a ~13% quarter‑over‑quarter increase (partially driven by the incentive fee waiver).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance is to prioritize protecting and rebuilding NAV first and creating income second, and they outlined several concrete actions and metrics to support that: GECM has waived all accrued/unpaid incentive fees through June 30, 2026 (≈$2.8M or $0.20/share), NII was $5.0M ($0.36/share) in Q1 2026 (≈13% QoQ growth vs $4.4M/$0.31 in Q4 2025, largely driven by the ~$0.20/share waiver), NAV was $107.5M ($7.74/share) as of 3/31/26 (down from $112.9M/$8.07), asset coverage was 161.8% (vs 158.1%), debt/equity improved to 1.62x (from 1.72x) with total debt $174M and no revolver borrowings, cash ≈$10M plus $4M in liquid exchange‑traded assets and full availability on a $50M revolver, the company called/repurchased $57.5M of GECCO notes eliminating near‑term maturities so there are no funded debt maturities until 2029, Q1 deployments were ≈$22M across 12 investments (including ≈$15M across 3 institutional partnership deals) while first‑lien exposure rose to nearly 75% of the corporate portfolio, less than 1% of fair value was on nonaccrual, CLO equity cashflows of roughly $2.5M were received this quarter (expected to continue quarterly though variable), the board approved a $0.25/share Q2 dividend (an 18% annualized yield on the $5.56 close on 5/1/26), and the $10M buyback program has repurchased ~1% of shares at an average 36% discount to 3/31 NAV with ≈$9.5M of capacity remaining.Great Elm Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | -11.60M | 44.48M | 39.32M | 35.83M | 24.43M | 25.25M |
| Gross Profit | -27.18M | 34.00M | 10.00M | 31.83M | -14.76M | -5.09M |
| EBITDA | -32.99M | -12.80M | 3.55M | 25.33M | -15.58M | -10.28M |
| Net Income | -32.99M | -31.79M | 3.55M | 25.33M | -15.58M | -10.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 282.76M | 340.77M | 342.03M | 246.82M | 310.11M | 426.31M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 0.00 | 1.83M | 8.45M | 953.00K | 587.00K | 9.13M |
| Total Debt | 169.14M | 189.32M | 189.69M | 140.21M | 153.15M | 142.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 175.29M | 227.83M | 205.91M | 148.09M | 225.30M | 351.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 107.48M | 112.95M | 136.11M | 98.74M | 84.81M | 74.56M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 50.42M | -2.81M | -82.67M | 15.39M | -41.76M | -58.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 50.42M | -2.81M | -82.67M | 15.39M | -41.76M | -58.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -67.75M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.77M | -36.47M | -56.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -27.82M | 4.65M | 81.72M | -25.32M | 33.20M | 14.45M |
Great Elm Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
5.35
Price Trends
5.44
Positive
5.80
Positive
6.85
Negative
Market Momentum
0.12
Negative
56.46
Neutral
66.67
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GECC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.80, below the 50-day MA of 5.44, and below the 200-day MA of 6.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GECC.
Great Elm Capital Risk Analysis
Great Elm Capital disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Great Elm Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Great Elm Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $144.80M | 15.80 | 3.58% | 21.24% | -58.30% | 2.72% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
60 Neutral | $82.94M | -2.59 | -26.36% | 22.43% | 2.83% | -679.99% | |
50 Neutral | $46.49M | -1.24 | -29.04% | 25.87% | -21.68% | -223.80% | |
43 Neutral | $124.39M | -3.30 | -24.71% | 24.14% | ― | -10500.00% |
* Financial Sector Average
GECC
Great Elm Capital
6.11
-2.83
-31.63%
OXSQ
Oxford Square Capital
1.35
-0.53
-28.27%
WHF
WhiteHorse
6.69
-0.69
-9.41%
OFS
OFS Capital
3.47
-3.56
-50.66%
NXDT
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust
5.34
1.77
49.71%
Great Elm Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Great Elm Capital Redeems 5.875% Notes Due 2026
Neutral
Apr 27, 2026
On April 27, 2026, Great Elm Capital Corp. announced that it has exercised its option to redeem in full its 5.875% Notes due 2026, which trade on Nasdaq under the symbol GECCO. The company will redeem all issued and outstanding notes on May 27, 20...
Business Operations and Strategy
Great Elm Capital Announces Partial Redemption of 2026 Notes
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Great Elm Capital Corp. notified holders of its 5.875% Notes due 2026 that it will redeem $20 million aggregate principal amount of these notes on March 31, 2026 at par, or $25 per note, plus any accrued and unpaid interest t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.