Great Elm Capital Corporation (GECC)
NASDAQ:GECC
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Great Elm Capital
(NASDAQ:GECC)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▼(-2.91% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and unreliable cash flow and high volatility in reported results, alongside a bearish technical trend (price below major moving averages and negative MACD). These are partially offset by income appeal from the very high dividend yield and a cautiously constructive earnings update (rising NII and active de-risking), though the material NAV decline remains a significant overhang.
Positive Factors
Portfolio de-risking
Actively trimming nearly a third of corporate names and cutting higher‑risk second‑lien exposure materially reduces concentration and downside sensitivity. This durable repositioning improves portfolio liquidity and lowers prospective loss severity, supporting steadier income and NAV stabilization over months.
Negative Factors
Material NAV decline
A near‑20% quarter‑over‑quarter NAV drop materially erodes the company's capital buffer and demonstrates mark volatility across CLOs, restructurings and stressed credits. Such a large capital impairment constrains dividend flexibility and heightens sensitivity to further credit or market shocks for several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Portfolio de-risking
Actively trimming nearly a third of corporate names and cutting higher‑risk second‑lien exposure materially reduces concentration and downside sensitivity. This durable repositioning improves portfolio liquidity and lowers prospective loss severity, supporting steadier income and NAV stabilization over months.
Read all positive factors
Great Elm Capital (GECC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$72.09M
Dividend Yield22.43%
Average Volume (3M)124.58K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth47.01%
EPS Growth-179.46%
CountryUS
Employees12
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding13,998,168
10 Day Avg. Volume63,369
30 Day Avg. Volume124,579
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.77
Price to Sales (P/S)1.96
P/FCF Ratio-30.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.66
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-19.34
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.50Price Target Upside6.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$51.99M
Great Elm Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Great Elm Capital Corp. is a business development company which specializes in loan and mezzanine, middle market investments. It invests in the debt instruments of middle market companies. The fund prefers to invest in media, commercial services a...
How the Company Makes Money
GECC primarily makes money by earning interest income and fee income from its investment portfolio. The largest and most recurring revenue stream is interest (and, where applicable, payment-in-kind interest) received on loans and debt securities i...
Great Elm Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: management acknowledged a significant NAV decline (roughly 19% q/q) driven by market volatility, CLO mark compression, restructurings and specific stressed investments, and disclosed realized losses on certain DIP positions. Offsetting those negatives were clear remediation efforts — an incentive fee waiver (~$2.3M), active portfolio derisking (nearly 30% of corporate credits repositioned), strong quarter-over-quarter NII growth (>50% in NII per share), low nonaccruals (<1%), improved liquidity actions (note repurchases and revolver availability), a strengthened credit team, and continued CLO JV cash generation. Given the material NAV headwinds but decisive governance and portfolio actions to stabilize earnings and protect capital, the overall tone is cautious and constructive.Positive Updates
Net Investment Income Growth
NII increased to $4.4M (or $0.31 per share) in Q4, up from $2.4M (or $0.20 per share) — a greater than 50% quarter-over-quarter increase in NII per share driven primarily by higher cash income and stronger distributions from the CLO joint venture.
Negative Updates
Material NAV Decline
Net asset value per share fell from $10.01 on 09/30/2025 to $8.07 on 12/31/2025 — a decline of approximately 19.4% quarter-over-quarter. Pro forma NAV including the incentive fee waiver was $8.23 per share.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Investment Income Growth
NII increased to $4.4M (or $0.31 per share) in Q4, up from $2.4M (or $0.20 per share) — a greater than 50% quarter-over-quarter increase in NII per share driven primarily by higher cash income and stronger distributions from the CLO joint venture.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that it will prioritize protecting capital, generating sustainable net investment income and methodically rebuilding NAV while remaining patient but opportunistic in deploying capital; specific near-term actions and metrics include a Board‑approved quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share for 2026 (a 19.2% annualized yield on the 02/27/2026 close of $6.26), Q4 NII of $4.4M or $0.31 per share (up >50% QoQ from $2.4M/$0.20), NAV per share down from $10.01 (9/30/25) to $8.07 (12/31/25) — $8.23 pro forma for a $2.3M (≈$0.16/sh) incentive‑fee waiver through 3/31/26 — with drivers including ~$0.40/sh from Coralweed volatility, ~$0.30/sh from CLO fair‑value moves, ~$0.80/sh from restructurings/LMEs and $0.09/sh from First Brands; portfolio and balance‑sheet metrics: nonaccruals <1% of fair value, asset coverage ratio 158.1% (166% pro forma), total debt $194.4M, cash ~$5M, $14M in liquid exchangable assets, $50M revolver undrawn, repurchases of ≈$18.7M of GECCO notes and ~$39M notes outstanding (with $16M cash on hand) resulting in pro forma debt‑to‑equity ≈1.5x, plus active portfolio repositioning (sold/reduced 18 credits — ~30% of 61 corporate names — second‑lien ≈7% of corporate portfolio; added 12 broadly syndicated positions avg ~$2M each; private credit closed one mid‑teens yield deal with warrants), and continued selective deployment into senior secured, cash‑generative opportunities while monitoring CLO JV cash flows (company outperformed broader CLO equity market, which was -6% to -13% in Q4).Great Elm Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 44.48M | 39.32M | 35.83M | 24.43M | 25.25M |
| Gross Profit | 34.00M | 10.00M | 31.83M | -14.76M | -5.09M |
| EBITDA | -12.80M | 3.55M | 25.33M | -15.58M | -10.28M |
| Net Income | -31.79M | 3.55M | 25.33M | -15.58M | -10.28M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 340.77M | 342.03M | 246.82M | 310.11M | 426.31M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 34.64M | 8.45M | 953.00K | 587.00K | 9.13M |
| Total Debt | 189.32M | 189.69M | 140.21M | 153.15M | 142.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 227.83M | 205.91M | 148.09M | 225.30M | 351.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 112.95M | 136.11M | 98.74M | 84.81M | 74.56M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.81M | -82.67M | 15.39M | -41.76M | -58.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -2.81M | -82.67M | 15.39M | -41.76M | -58.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.07M | 0.00 | 14.77M | -36.47M | -56.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.65M | 81.72M | -25.32M | 33.20M | 14.45M |
Great Elm Capital Technical Analysis
Neutral
5.15
Price Trends
5.58
Negative
6.14
Negative
7.47
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.11
Negative
47.19
Neutral
50.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GECC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.02, below the 50-day MA of 5.58, and below the 200-day MA of 7.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GECC.
Great Elm Capital Risk Analysis
Great Elm Capital disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Great Elm Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Great Elm Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
63 Neutral | $170.76M | 11.23 | 5.30% | 21.24% | -55.82% | -4.97% | |
56 Neutral | $107.68M | -13.03 | -2.90% | 14.03% | -34.92% | -132.22% | |
54 Neutral | $50.91M | -1.93 | -23.38% | 25.87% | -14.76% | ― | |
49 Neutral | $72.09M | -2.74 | -24.20% | 22.43% | 47.01% | -179.46% | |
46 Neutral | $163.65M | -7.18 | -12.27% | 24.14% | -177.91% | 55.08% |
* Financial Sector Average
GECC
Great Elm Capital
5.22
-3.15
-37.60%
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OFS
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MRCC
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5.08
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NXDT
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust
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46.60%
Great Elm Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Great Elm Capital Announces Partial Redemption of 2026 Notes
Neutral
Mar 2, 2026
On February 27, 2026, Great Elm Capital Corp. notified holders of its 5.875% Notes due 2026 that it will redeem $20 million aggregate principal amount of these notes on March 31, 2026 at par, or $25 per note, plus any accrued and unpaid interest t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.