Monroe Capital (MRCC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $139.10M
• Dividend Yield: 14.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 105.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: -34.92%
• EPS Growth: -132.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 21,666,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 79,404
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 105,021
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.92
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 138.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -34.95
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.00 ▲(2.19% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak TTM profitability (net loss) and a sharp revenue decline, despite strong operating/free cash flow and improved leverage. Technicals are moderately positive and the dividend yield is attractive, while the debt redemption is a supportive corporate development but not enough to offset earnings volatility.

Positive Factors

Debt Elimination

Eliminating debt reduces leverage risk, enhancing Monroe Capital's financial stability and allowing more resources for growth initiatives.

Cash Flow Stability

Consistent positive cash flow supports Monroe Capital's liquidity, ensuring it can meet operational needs and invest in growth opportunities.

Shareholder Returns

Regular distributions demonstrate Monroe Capital's commitment to shareholder value, potentially enhancing investor confidence and market appeal.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A significant decline in revenue growth indicates potential challenges in market demand or competitive positioning, affecting long-term profitability.

Net Income Volatility

Volatile net income can lead to unpredictable financial performance, complicating strategic planning and investor confidence in sustained profitability.

Negative EPS Growth

A sharp decline in EPS growth suggests profitability issues, potentially affecting Monroe Capital's ability to reinvest in its business and reward shareholders.

Monroe Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Monroe Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in customized financing solutions in senior, unitranche and junior secured debt, subordinated debt financing and to a lesser extent, unsecured debt and equity, including equity co-investments in preferred and common stock and warrants. It also provides financing primarily to leveraged buyouts in lower middle-market companies. It focuses to invest in the United States and Canada. The fund prefers to invest in companies with EBITDA between $3 and $35 million. Its makes minority equity investments.

How the Company Makes Money

Monroe Capital generates revenue through interest income from its debt investments, which include senior secured loans and subordinated loans, as well as from fees associated with loan origination and management. Additionally, the company earns income from equity investments in its portfolio companies. Key revenue streams include interest payments on loans and dividends from equity holdings. The company may also benefit from partnerships with financial institutions and private equity firms, which can enhance its deal flow and access to investment opportunities.

Monroe Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall financial quality is mixed. TTM revenue fell ~31% and the company swung to a net loss (~-$4.2M) from 2024 profitability (~$9.7M), highlighting weak and volatile earnings. Offsetting this, leverage improved materially with total debt reported at $0 and operating/free cash flow were both ~+$16.8M in TTM, supporting liquidity.

Income Statement

Performance has deteriorated sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): revenue fell ~31% and the company swung to a net loss (about -$4.2M) versus solid profitability in 2024 (about $9.7M net income). While the business has shown it can generate profits in prior years (notably 2021 and 2024), results have been volatile with a loss year in 2022 and a very low-profit year in 2023, reducing confidence in earnings stability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved materially in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with total debt reported at $0 and equity of ~$173M, which strengthens balance sheet flexibility versus prior years where debt-to-equity was typically ~1.3–1.5x. Offsetting that improvement, returns on equity remain modest (TTM roughly 2.9%) and equity has trended down from 2021–2024 levels, suggesting weaker earning power and/or valuation marks over time.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow were both about $16.8M, higher than 2024 (~$8.6M). That said, free cash flow declined about 17% year-over-year in TTM, and cash flow growth has been inconsistent across years, indicating some variability in underlying cash earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.12M	35.19M	27.00M	19.45M	54.03M	22.32M
Gross Profit	978.00K	14.59M	5.46M	4.49M	40.16M	6.51M
EBITDA	-3.88M	10.16M	1.18M	-1.38M	32.74M	2.02M
Net Income	-4.19M	9.70M	371.00K	-2.79M	32.46M	1.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	388.95M	490.67M	513.19M	565.00M	590.46M	585.12M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.53M	9.04M	4.96M	5.45M	2.62M	6.77M
Total Debt	0.00	291.98M	300.87M	330.11M	332.15M	343.51M
Total Liabilities	215.91M	298.91M	309.46M	339.98M	340.99M	350.69M
Stockholders Equity	173.04M	191.76M	203.72M	225.02M	249.47M	234.43M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	16.79M	8.55M	9.96M	10.48M	12.47M	23.73M
Operating Cash Flow	16.79M	8.55M	9.96M	10.48M	12.47M	23.73M
Investing Cash Flow	91.37M	27.40M	41.77M	3.63M	7.54M	51.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-108.71M	-31.87M	-52.22M	-26.72M	-34.30M	-72.15M

Monroe Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRCC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.52, above the 50-day MA of 6.36, and above the 200-day MA of 6.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MRCC.

Monroe Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BCIC	66 Neutral	$160.64M	11.36	7.87%	16.60%	-5.23%	193.87%
WHF	61 Neutral	$155.96M	15.82	3.51%	21.24%	-55.82%	-4.97%
MRCC	55 Neutral	$139.10M	-33.30	-2.25%	14.03%	-34.92%	-132.22%
OFS	54 Neutral	$66.59M	20.61	2.25%	25.87%	-14.76%	―
OXSQ	48 Neutral	$151.91M	-50.84	-1.61%	24.14%	-177.91%	55.08%
GECC	45 Neutral	$98.13M	-12.72	-5.98%	22.43%	47.01%	-179.46%

Monroe Capital Corporate Events

Monroe Capital Completes Redemption of 2026 Senior Notes

On January 14, 2026, Monroe Capital Corporation amended its senior secured revolving credit facility through Amendment No. 9, temporarily modifying borrowing base mechanics and concentration limits via a new Borrowing Base Flex Period, increasing interest margins by 0.75 percentage points, enhancing mandatory prepayment provisions tied to specified proceeds, and incorporating financing arrangements and references related to its 4.75% Notes due 2026 and previously announced strategic transactions. The changes, which leave the facility secured by substantially all of the company’s assets and subject to existing leverage, coverage and covenant frameworks, are designed to provide flexibility around the refinancing of the 2026 Notes and adjust liquidity and risk parameters, while preserving customary default and covenant protections that, if breached, could adversely affect Monroe Capital’s liquidity and financial condition; on January 15, 2026, the company completed the redemption of all $130 million of its outstanding 2026 Notes at par plus accrued interest, eliminating this debt and stopping further interest accrual on the notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRCC) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monroe Capital stock, see the MRCC Stock Forecast page.

Monroe Capital Prepares Fund Wind-Down for Merger

Monroe Capital Corporation and Life Insurance Company of the Southwest have been co-investing in senior secured loans through MRCC Senior Loan Fund I, LLC since 2017. In preparation for a proposed merger with Horizon Technology Finance Corporation, the companies have initiated the wind-down and dissolution of the fund, with the process expected to be completed by December 31, 2025. The company anticipates no early termination penalties or continuing obligations following the dissolution.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRCC) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monroe Capital stock, see the MRCC Stock Forecast page.

Monroe Capital Plans Redemption of 2026 Notes

On December 15, 2025, Monroe Capital Corporation announced its intention to redeem $130 million of its 4.75% Notes due 2026, contingent upon completing financing transactions generating at least $130 million before the redemption date of January 15, 2026. The redemption, which will be executed at 100% of the principal amount plus accrued interest, may be delayed or rescinded if the financing conditions are not met, impacting stakeholders by potentially altering the company’s debt profile and financial strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRCC) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monroe Capital stock, see the MRCC Stock Forecast page.

Monroe Capital Announces Q4 Distribution for 2025

On December 15, 2025, Monroe Capital Corporation announced a fourth-quarter distribution of $0.18 per share, payable on December 31, 2025, to stockholders of record as of December 23, 2025. This announcement follows the company’s dividend reinvestment plan, allowing stockholders to reinvest distributions unless they opt for cash. The company is also planning an Asset Sale and Merger in early 2026, which will impact its asset holdings and financial structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRCC) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monroe Capital stock, see the MRCC Stock Forecast page.

Monroe Capital to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results

On October 30, 2025, Monroe Capital Corporation announced that it will release its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, on November 5, 2025, after the market closes. This announcement is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to keep stakeholders informed about its financial performance, which could impact its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRCC) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monroe Capital stock, see the MRCC Stock Forecast page.