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Oxford Square Capital (OXSQ)
NASDAQ:OXSQ
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Oxford Square Capital
(NASDAQ:OXSQ)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▲(9.29% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:11/12/25
Oxford Square Capital's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance challenges, including negative profitability and cash flow issues. While technical analysis and valuation provide some positive aspects, the earnings call's negative sentiment and concerns about dividend sustainability weigh heavily on the score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth suggests effective investment strategies and expanding income streams, supporting long-term business sustainability.
Successful Debt Management
Effective debt management enhances financial flexibility and reduces interest expenses, contributing to long-term financial health.
Share Repurchase Program
The share repurchase program indicates confidence in the company's valuation and can enhance shareholder value over time.
Negative Factors
Decreasing Net Asset Value
A declining net asset value per share may indicate underlying asset performance issues, impacting investor confidence and long-term valuation.
Dividend Coverage Concerns
Inadequate dividend coverage raises sustainability concerns, potentially leading to reduced payouts and affecting income-focused investors.
Increased Losses
Rising losses can erode capital and limit future investment opportunities, posing a risk to long-term profitability and growth.
Oxford Square Capital (OXSQ) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$148.64M
Dividend Yield24.14%
Average Volume (3M)1.20M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.27
Revenue Growth-177.91%
EPS Growth55.08%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding81,669,410
10 Day Avg. Volume1,342,122
30 Day Avg. Volume1,197,046
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.37
Price to Book (P/B)0.96
Price to Sales (P/S)8.69
P/FCF Ratio6.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.68
Enterprise Value/Revenue24.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit138.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-97.63
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$40.98M
Oxford Square Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOxford Square Capital Corp. is a business development company, operates as a closed-end, non-diversified management investment company. It is a private equity and mezzanine firm. The firm invests in both public and private companies. It invests in secured and unsecured senior debt, subordinated debt, junior subordinated debt, preferred stock, common stock and syndicated bank loans. The firm primarily invests in debt and/or equity securities of technology-related companies that operate in the computer software, Internet, information technology infrastructure and services, media, telecommunications and telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, hardware, technology-enabled services, semiconductor capital equipment, medical device technology, diversified technology, and networking systems sectors. It concentrates its investments in companies having annual revenues of less than $200 million and a market capitalization or enterprise value of less than $300 million. The firm invests between $5 million and $30 million per transaction. It seeks to exit its investments within 7 years. It serves as the investment adviser to TICC. Oxford Square Capital Corp., formerly known as TICC Capital Corp., was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyOxford Square Capital generates revenue primarily through interest income from its debt investments and capital gains from its equity investments. The company typically invests in senior secured loans, subordinated debt, and equity securities of middle-market companies, which allows it to earn interest payments and potential appreciation in equity value. A significant portion of its income is derived from the interest on loans that are often structured with favorable terms, providing a reliable income stream. Additionally, OXSQ may earn management fees from its investment activities, depending on its performance and asset management agreements. The company’s earnings can also be influenced by economic conditions and the performance of the underlying companies within its investment portfolio.
Oxford Square Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mix of stability in operating income and active portfolio management (continued distributions, modestly higher total investment income, new investments and capital raised), but was dominated by negative marks: a substantial quarter-over-quarter NAV decline (-13.3%), a large increase in realized and unrealized losses (~$18.3M, +144% vs prior quarter), CLO equity markdowns, rising distress in lower-rated loans and weak primary issuance/outflows. The negative items are material and outweigh the positives.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Maintained Net Investment Income
Net investment income of approximately $5.4 million, or $0.07 per share, for the quarter (slight decrease from $5.6 million prior quarter, approximately -3.6%).
Slight Increase in Total Investment Income
Total investment income of approximately $10.4 million versus $10.2 million in the prior quarter, an increase of roughly 1.96% quarter-over-quarter.
Shareholder Distributions and Dividend Guidance
Distributed $0.105 per share during the quarter; Board declared monthly distributions of $0.035 per share for April, May and June 2026 (consistent distribution policy).
Capital Raised via ATM Offering
Issued approximately 4.3 million shares under an at-the-market offering, generating net proceeds of approximately $7.9 million to support investment activity and liquidity.
Active Investment Activity and Portfolio Positioning
Quarter purchases of approximately $18 million and repayments of approximately $7.4 million (net new deployment of ~ $10.6 million). Management noted focus on first-lien, primarily B2B loans and sees selective opportunities in the primary and secondary markets.
Improved 12-Month Trailing Default Rate (Index)
12-month trailing default rate for the loan index decreased to 1.23% from 1.47% at the end of the prior quarter (a relative decline of ~16.3%).
Negative Updates
Significant Decline in Net Asset Value
Net asset value (NAV) per share declined to $1.69 from $1.95 in the prior quarter, a decrease of $0.26 per share or roughly -13.3% quarter-over-quarter.
Material Increase in Realized and Unrealized Losses
Combined net unrealized and realized losses on investments of approximately $18.3 million ( ~$0.22 per share) versus losses of approximately $7.5 million (~$0.09 per share) in the prior quarter — an increase in losses of approximately 144%.
CLO Equity Markdowns Were Primary Driver of Depreciation
Management attributed a large portion of the quarter's unrealized depreciation to year-end markdowns in the CLO equity portion of the portfolio, with most impacts reported as unrealized.
Rising Distress and CCC Segment Weakness
Distress ratio (loans priced below 80% of par) increased to 4.34% from 2.88% (a relative increase of ~50.7%). CCC-rated loan prices declined materially (down ~265 basis points), indicating stress in lower-rated credits.
Primary Market Slowdown and Fund Outflows
U.S. leveraged loan primary market issuance was $70.7 billion, down 27% versus the year-ago quarter. Loan fund outflows were approximately $3.2 billion for the quarter, reflecting broader market weakness and investor flows.
NAV Dilution Risk from Equity Issuance
While ATM proceeds provided liquidity (~$7.9 million), issuance of ~4.3 million shares increases share count and may contribute to dilution pressure on NAV per share amid falling NAV.
Company Guidance
The company’s explicit near-term guidance was the Board’s declaration of monthly distributions of $0.035 per share for each of April, May and June 2026 (see press release for record/payment dates); management also reiterated a permanent‑capital, long‑term investment posture and a continued focus on portfolio‑management strategies to maximize long‑term total return while pursuing opportunities in both the primary and secondary markets amid slower issuance. For context, Q4 net investment income was approximately $5.4M ($0.07/share) with NAV of $1.69 (down from $1.95), total investment income of ~$10.4M, combined net unrealized and realized losses of ~$18.3M ($0.22/share) versus ~$7.5M ($0.09/share) in the prior quarter, purchases of ~$18M and repayments of ~$7.4M, and ~4.3M ATM shares issued for net proceeds of ~$7.9M; market metrics cited included the LSTA loan index falling from 97.06% to 96.64%, BB/B/CCC price moves of -8bps/+18bps/-265bps, 12‑month trailing defaults of 1.23% (from 1.47%) with an adjusted default measure of 3.35%, a distress ratio rising to 4.34% (from 2.88%), U.S. leveraged loan primary issuance of $70.7B (‑27% YoY) and loan fund outflows of about $3.2B; the call also included customary forward‑looking statement disclosures.Oxford Square Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Oxford Square Capital's financial performance is challenged by negative profitability and cash flow issues, despite strong revenue growth. The balance sheet is stable but unremarkable, with a negative return on equity indicating inefficiencies.Income Statement
Oxford Square Capital shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a significant revenue growth rate of 74.43%, which is a positive sign. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin. This suggests challenges in managing costs or generating sufficient profit from its operations.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.72 in the TTM, indicating a reasonable level of leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting inefficiencies in generating returns from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall leverage and equity management appear to be stable yet unremarkable.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement highlights significant issues, with a massive negative free cash flow growth rate and negative operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is close to 1, suggesting that cash flow generation is not aligned with reported earnings, which is concerning for liquidity and operational efficiency.30
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.22M | 17.81M | 33.57M | -69.03M | 37.18M | 13.42M |
| Gross Profit | 1.81M | 9.96M | 22.75M | -81.38M | 37.18M | 5.54M |
| EBITDA | -2.56M | 5.88M | 17.24M | -85.55M | 26.60M | 1.71M |
| Net Income | -2.56M | 5.88M | 17.24M | -85.55M | 39.58M | 1.71M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 314.74M | 299.73M | 277.67M | 327.99M | 433.51M | 357.66M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 50.79M | 34.93M | 5.74M | 9.02M | 9.02M | 59.14M |
| Total Debt | 151.39M | 123.60M | 122.98M | 186.32M | 185.38M | 106.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 155.78M | 139.07M | 126.36M | 189.32M | 188.91M | 132.23M |
| Stockholders Equity | 158.96M | 160.67M | 151.31M | 138.67M | 244.60M | 225.43M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 20.29M | 25.71M | 26.72M | 19.62M | 16.69M | 19.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 20.29M | 25.71M | 26.72M | 19.62M | 16.69M | 19.04M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.09M | 0.00 | 38.97M | 752.49K | -124.12M | 76.01M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 29.40M | 3.48M | -68.97M | -20.37M | 57.31M | -52.37M |
Oxford Square Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
1.83
Price Trends
1.78
Positive
1.75
Positive
1.85
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
51.44
Neutral
52.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OXSQ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.82, above the 50-day MA of 1.78, and below the 200-day MA of 1.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OXSQ.
Oxford Square Capital Risk Analysis
Oxford Square Capital disclosed 75 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oxford Square Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Oxford Square Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $151.48M | 10.41 | 7.87% | 16.60% | -5.23% | 193.87% | |
61 Neutral | $156.19M | 14.85 | 3.51% | 21.24% | -55.82% | -4.97% | |
56 Neutral | $56.27M | 17.42 | 2.25% | 25.87% | -14.76% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $126.96M | -30.30 | -2.25% | 14.03% | -34.92% | -132.22% | |
49 Neutral | $87.21M | -11.29 | -5.98% | 22.43% | 47.01% | -179.46% | |
48 Neutral | $148.64M | -50.84 | -1.61% | 24.14% | -177.91% | 55.08% |
* Financial Sector Average
OXSQ
Oxford Square Capital
1.82
-0.52
-22.12%
BCIC
BCP Investment Corporation
11.58
-3.24
-21.86%
WHF
WhiteHorse
6.72
-2.51
-27.19%
OFS
OFS Capital
4.20
-3.30
-44.00%
MRCC
Monroe Capital
5.86
-1.28
-17.93%
GECC
Great Elm Capital
6.23
-3.52
-36.10%
Oxford Square Capital Corporate Events
Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Oxford Square Capital Announces Q3 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Nov 4, 2025
On November 4, 2025, Oxford Square Capital Corp. announced its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, highlighting a decrease in net asset value per share from $2.06 to $1.95. The company declared distributions for the first quarter of 2026 and reported a net investment income of $5.6 million. The Board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $25 million, reflecting strategic efforts to enhance shareholder value.
The most recent analyst rating on (OXSQ) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Oxford Square Capital stock, see the OXSQ Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.