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OFS Capital (OFS)
NASDAQ:OFS

OFS Capital (OFS) AI Stock Analysis

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OFS Capital

(NASDAQ:OFS)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
OFS Capital's overall stock score reflects a strong financial foundation with high profitability and attractive valuation metrics. However, concerns about declining revenue, cash flow issues, and economic uncertainties weigh on the score. The stock's upward technical momentum and high dividend yield provide potential for returns, balancing the challenges highlighted in the earnings call.

OFS Capital (OFS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

OFS Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOFS Capital Corporation is a business development company specializing in direct and fund investments as well as add-on acquisitions. It provides flexible capital solutions primarily through debt capital and to a lesser extent, minority equity investments serving the needs of U.S.-based middle-market companies across a broad array of industries. It does not invest in operational turnarounds or start-up businesses. For direct, it specializes in debt and structured equity investments, recapitalizations and refinancing, management and leveraged buyouts, acquisition financings, shareholder liquidity events, growth capital, independent sponsor transactions, ESOPs, and minority investments in the lower middle market companies. It invests in the aerospace and defense, business services, consumer products and services, food and beverage, health care services, specialty chemicals, transportation and logistics, value added distribution, franchising, and industrial and niche manufacturing sectors. The firm invests in companies based in United States. It seeks to invest between $5 million and $35 million, revenues between $10 million and $200 million, annual EBITDA more than $5 million, and Enterprise value between $10 million and $500 million. The firm seeks to invest in companies with debt investment values between $5 million and $25 million. The fund uses senior secured, unitranche loans, first-lien, second-lien, subordinated/ mezzanine loans, warrants, and preferred equity securities and common equity securities. It prefers to take a minority as well as majority stake in the investments made. It also co-invests with its partners for additional capital.
How the Company Makes MoneyOFS Capital makes money primarily through the interest income it earns on its debt investments, which include senior secured loans and subordinated loans extended to middle-market companies. The company also generates revenue from dividends and capital gains on its equity investments. Additionally, OFS benefits from fee income related to its investment activities, such as origination fees, amendment fees, and prepayment fees. These revenue streams are complemented by its strategic partnerships and relationships within the financial industry, which facilitate deal sourcing and investment opportunities.

OFS Capital Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -3.76%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 01, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted a stable and defensively positioned loan portfolio, along with strong historical performance and significant returns on certain investments. However, these positives were balanced by decreases in net investment income, net asset value, and total investment income, amid broader economic uncertainties.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Stable Loan Portfolio
No new non-accrual loans were added this quarter, indicating the portfolio's stability despite macroeconomic uncertainties.
Strong Historical Performance
Since 2011, the company has invested over $2 billion with a cumulative net realized loss of only 3.4%, reflecting strong risk-adjusted returns.
Significant Returns on Equity Investment
The company received approximately $3.9 million in distributions from an investment in Pfanstiehl Holdings, representing an 18x return on the original $200,000 investment.
High Yield on Stock Distribution
The quarterly distribution rate represented a 14.6% annualized yield based on the market price of the common stock.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Net Investment Income
Net investment income dropped from $0.30 per share in the previous quarter to $0.26, partly due to the absence of non-recurring income.
Decline in Net Asset Value
Net asset value per share decreased by approximately 7% to $11.97, influenced by broader credit market declines and company-specific marks.
Drop in Total Investment Income
Total investment income decreased by approximately 12% to $10.3 million, influenced by reduced interest income and non-recurring income.
Economic Uncertainty and Potential Slowdown
The overall economic outlook remains uncertain, with increased chances of a slowdown impacting portfolio earnings.
Company Guidance
During the OFS Capital Corporation Q1 2025 earnings call, the company reported a net investment income of $0.26 per share, down from $0.30 in the previous quarter, primarily due to a decrease in non-recurring dividend and fee income. The net asset value per share also declined to $11.97 from $12.85, attributed to company-specific marks and broader credit market price declines. The portfolio remains stable with no new non-accruals, and 100% of the loan portfolio is in senior secured loans. The company maintains a quarterly distribution of $0.34 per share, representing a 14.6% annualized yield. OFS Capital's regulatory asset coverage ratio decreased to 165%, and the company emphasized its 73% unsecured debt position and the ongoing focus on refinancing. The weighted average performing investment income yield slightly decreased to 13.4%, impacted by previous interest rate cuts. Overall, OFS Capital remains committed to capital preservation and increasing net investment income over the long term, leveraging its adviser's $4.1 billion corporate credit platform.

OFS Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary
OFS Capital demonstrates strong profitability and efficient management with high margins and good equity returns. However, declining revenue and free cash flow raise concerns about future growth prospects. The balance sheet reflects prudent financial management with moderate leverage, although asset decline is a potential risk. Overall, the company is financially stable but must address revenue and cash flow challenges to sustain long-term growth.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data shows a strong gross profit margin of 87.16% and a solid net profit margin of 87.54%, indicating efficient cost management and profitability. However, the revenue growth rate is negative, suggesting declining sales compared to previous years. The EBIT margin is robust at 101.10%, reflecting effective operational control. Overall, while profitability metrics are strong, declining revenue is a concern.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.42, which is relatively low and indicates moderate leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is high at 23.37%, showing effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profit. The equity ratio of 38.93% suggests a healthy proportion of equity financing. The balance sheet is stable with good profitability and manageable debt levels, though a decrease in total assets over time could be a risk.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The free cash flow growth rate is negative, indicating a decline in free cash flow from previous periods. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.63, which suggests that operating cash flow is lower than net income, potentially indicating issues with cash conversion. Free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.63 as well, highlighting the need for improved cash flow management. Cash flow is stable but shows signs of potential strain.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
42.82M32.88M45.59M46.26M68.23M10.33M
Gross Profit
37.32M32.88M31.24M35.77M54.31M-918.00K
EBIT
43.30M28.44M40.05M35.53M56.86M3.69M
EBITDA
44.08M0.0040.05M35.79M80.11M0.00
Net Income Common Stockholders
37.49M28.44M-465.00K-7.74M56.86M3.69M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
4.05M6.07M45.35M515.51K43.05M37.71M
Total Assets
411.96M428.12M469.82M520.72M569.05M483.81M
Total Debt
68.05M68.35M299.73M331.75M344.81M309.19M
Net Debt
64.00M62.28M254.38M316.81M301.76M271.48M
Total Liabilities
251.58M255.90M307.81M340.29M365.30M324.86M
Stockholders Equity
160.38M172.22M162.00M180.42M203.74M158.96M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
23.53M33.01M81.57M2.95M-12.01M80.63M
Operating Cash Flow
23.53M33.01M81.57M2.95M-12.01M80.63M
Investing Cash Flow
392.00K0.000.00-107.55M-216.11M-59.63M
Financing Cash Flow
-28.67M-72.29M-51.15M-31.06M17.35M-56.36M

OFS Capital Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price8.45
Price Trends
50DMA
8.71
Negative
100DMA
8.37
Positive
200DMA
7.96
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Positive
RSI
45.21
Neutral
STOCH
19.76
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OFS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.63, below the 50-day MA of 8.71, and above the 200-day MA of 7.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for OFS.

OFS Capital Risk Analysis

OFS Capital disclosed 92 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. OFS Capital reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

OFS Capital Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
OFOFS
70
Outperform
$113.48M3.7619.56%16.06%-49.04%
69
Neutral
$138.01M19.603.63%15.77%127.09%2519.30%
64
Neutral
$12.67B9.747.58%17015.08%12.21%-6.96%
51
Neutral
$168.44M605.13-0.32%17.80%-338.17%-97.99%
48
Neutral
$109.42M41.01-5.47%21.45%-37.27%-153.39%
48
Neutral
$122.83M25.783.56%13.35%32.38%-90.38%
45
Neutral
$150.26M-9.96%90.08%-893.47%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
OFS
OFS Capital
8.45
0.25
3.05%
PTMN
Portman Ridge Finance
11.89
-5.03
-29.73%
SSSS
SuRo Capital
6.59
2.42
58.03%
OXSQ
Oxford Square Capital
2.36
-0.26
-9.92%
MRCC
Monroe Capital
6.37
-0.23
-3.48%
GECC
Great Elm Capital
10.69
1.82
20.52%

OFS Capital Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
OFS Capital Announces CFO Transition in 2025
Neutral
Jan 29, 2025

On January 28, 2025, Jeffrey A. Cerny announced his resignation as Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of OFS Capital Corporation, effective March 31, 2025, without any disagreements related to company operations. Kyle Spina, with over 15 years of experience in accounting, will replace him as CFO and Treasurer, bringing extensive expertise from his previous roles, enhancing the company’s financial leadership.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.