Blue Owl Capital (OWL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.22B
• Dividend Yield: 5.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 39.94M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 128.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.75
• Revenue Growth: 27.24%
• EPS Growth: -59.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,200
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 665,568,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 39,735,526
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 39,935,074
• PEG Ratio: -3.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.58
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.52
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.26
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.07
• 1Y Price Target: $16.25
• Price Target Upside: 77.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.93
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.06B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.50 ▲(3.83% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven primarily by strong cash flow and a sharply de-risked balance sheet, reinforced by a generally positive earnings outlook centered on fundraising/AUM growth and steady FRE margins. Offsetting this, the stock’s technical setup is weak (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD) and valuation is stretched on earnings (very high P/E), despite a supportive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Consistently strong operating and free cash flow (~$1.26B OCF; ~$1.20B FCF in 2025) signals durable cash conversion from fee and asset-related inflows. This underpins dividends, buybacks, reinvestment and M&A optionality, enhancing resilience across alternative cycles.

Balance-sheet strength

Material deleveraging (debt ≈$0.54B; debt-to-equity ≈0.09x) materially reduces financial risk and interest burden. A stronger capital structure increases flexibility for opportunistic investments, supports liquidity for investor tender requests and helps absorb market stress in private markets.

Fundraising and scale

Record fundraising ($56B) and AUM >$300B expand the fee-bearing asset base and scale economics. Diverse channels—institutional, private wealth, GP-led and digital strategies—should sustain management fee streams and improve bargaining power with distribution partners over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Thin net profitability

Despite strong revenue growth and operating margins, net margin compression to ~2.7% and ROE near ~1.3% indicate limited shareholder-level profitability. A large equity base and thin net earnings reduce capacity to convert growth into durable returns for investors over time.

Dividend sustainability

A >100% payout ratio in 2025 is structurally unsustainable; management plans to cut toward ~85%. High payouts above earnings constrain retained capital for reinvestment and may force material distribution adjustments that affect income-focused investors and capital allocation strategy.

Originations conversion

A gross-to-net conversion rate in the high-20s% (LTM gross $45.4B, net $13.2B) signals persistent deployment or closing friction. Lower conversion constrains growth of fee-paying AUM and recurring management fees, making top-line scaling reliant on higher origination volumes or improved execution.

Blue Owl Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Blue Owl Capital Inc. operates as an asset manager. It offers permanent capital base solutions that enables it to offer a holistic platform to middle market companies, large alternative asset managers, and corporate real estate owners and tenants. The company provides direct lending products that offer private credit products comprising diversified, technology, first lien, and opportunistic lending to middle-market companies; GP capital solutions products, which offers capital solutions, including GP minority equity investments, GP debt financing, and professional sports minority investments to large private capital managers; and real estate products that focuses on structuring sale-leaseback transactions, which includes triple net leases. It offers its solutions through permanent capital vehicles, as well as long-dated private funds. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Blue Owl Capital generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees associated with its investment funds. Management fees are typically calculated as a percentage of assets under management (AUM), providing a steady income stream as the company grows its investment portfolio. Performance fees, often referred to as carried interest, are earned when the funds exceed a predetermined return threshold, aligning the company's interests with those of its investors. Additionally, Blue Owl Capital may benefit from advisory fees and transaction fees related to its investment activities. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and other asset managers further enhance its investment capabilities and broaden its market reach, contributing to overall revenue growth.

Blue Owl Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong cash generation (2025 operating cash flow ~$1.26B; free cash flow ~$1.20B) and a materially improved balance-sheet risk profile (debt reduced to ~$0.54B; debt-to-equity ~0.09x). Revenue is growing quickly ($1.73B in 2023 to $2.87B in 2025) with solid operating profitability, but net margin remains thin and slipped in 2025 (~2.7% vs ~4.8% in 2024) and ROE is modest (~1.3%).

Income Statement

Blue Owl Capital shows solid top-line momentum, with revenue rising from $1.73B (2023) to $2.30B (2024) and $2.87B (2025). Profitability has improved materially versus earlier years (losses in 2020–2022 to positive earnings in 2023–2025), and operating profitability remains healthy in 2025 with a ~19% EBIT margin and ~33% EBITDA margin. The key weakness is that net profitability is still thin and volatile: net margin fell to ~2.7% in 2025 from ~4.8% in 2024, indicating earnings are not scaling as cleanly as revenue.

Balance Sheet

Leverage and capital structure strengthened significantly in 2025: total debt dropped to ~$0.54B and debt relative to equity improved to ~0.09x versus ~1.40x in 2024, reducing financial risk. The company also carries a sizable equity base (~$6.18B) against ~$12.47B in assets. The main drawback is returns on equity remain modest (about ~1.3% in 2025, down from ~5.2% in 2024), suggesting the larger equity base is not yet translating into strong shareholder-level profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength. Operating cash flow increased to ~$1.26B in 2025 (from ~$1.00B in 2024), and free cash flow was robust at ~$1.20B. Free cash flow has also grown year over year in 2025 and has remained consistently high relative to reported net income, pointing to strong cash conversion and good underlying cash economics. The primary watch item is the disconnect between very strong cash flow and comparatively low net income margins, which can signal earnings volatility or non-cash/non-operating impacts on accounting profit.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.87B	2.30B	1.73B	1.37B	823.88M
Gross Profit	1.59B	1.28B	860.97M	475.04M	-673.11M
EBITDA	941.12M	866.04M	632.65M	269.67M	-1.73B
Net Income	78.83M	109.58M	54.34M	-9.29M	-376.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.47B	10.99B	8.82B	8.89B	8.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	194.51M	152.09M	104.16M	68.08M	42.57M
Total Debt	3.86B	2.98B	2.00B	1.86B	1.26B
Total Liabilities	6.41B	5.19B	3.54B	3.34B	2.42B
Stockholders Equity	2.21B	2.13B	1.53B	1.60B	1.66B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.20B	935.37M	881.24M	662.91M	276.40M
Operating Cash Flow	1.26B	999.55M	949.14M	728.45M	281.66M
Investing Cash Flow	-241.28M	-638.14M	-118.03M	-485.22M	-1.60B
Financing Cash Flow	-972.33M	-313.48M	-795.03M	-217.72M	1.35B

Blue Owl Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 9.15
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OWL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.18, below the 50-day MA of 12.46, and below the 200-day MA of 15.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.00 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OWL.

Blue Owl Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
OWL	66 Neutral	$14.22B	128.08	3.43%	5.45%	27.24%	-59.82%
BX	65 Neutral	$136.89B	39.87	36.17%	3.02%	33.12%	19.86%
ARES	64 Neutral	$34.82B	66.62	12.01%	2.65%	50.70%	7.32%
CG	60 Neutral	$17.29B	26.29	14.18%	2.30%	-24.62%	437.16%
TPG	59 Neutral	$15.66B	31.80	16.10%	3.03%	25.02%	235.70%
KKR	57 Neutral	$79.32B	24.79	8.15%	0.56%	-33.80%	-24.81%

Blue Owl Capital Corporate Events

Blue Owl Capital Reports Record 2025 Results, Raises Dividend

On February 5, 2026, Blue Owl Capital reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting record fundraising in both institutional and private wealth channels, with new capital commitments reaching $17 billion in the fourth quarter and $56 billion for the year, and assets under management surpassing the $300 billion milestone by year-end. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.225 per Class A share, payable on March 2, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 20, 2026, underscoring its cash-return profile even as it continues to scale its global alternatives platform and investment performance for clients.

The most recent analyst rating on (OWL) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Blue Owl Capital stock, see the OWL Stock Forecast page.