OPAL Fuels (OPAL) AI Stock Analysis

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OPAL Fuels

(NASDAQ:OPAL)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:58Neutral

Price Target:

$2.50

▲(3.73% Upside)

OPAL Fuels' overall stock score is driven by a mixed financial performance and moderate technical indicators. While there is short-term bullish momentum, the stock's high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation. The earnings call highlights both achievements and challenges, maintaining a cautious outlook.

OPAL Fuels (OPAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$438.69M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)248.03K

Price to Earnings (P/E)44.2

Beta (1Y)1.49

Revenue Growth12.15%

EPS Growth-22.09%

CountryUS

Employees341

SectorUtilities

Sector Strength65

IndustryRegulated Gas

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.03

Shares Outstanding28,996,178

10 Day Avg. Volume517,641

30 Day Avg. Volume248,034

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.99

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.67

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.51

Enterprise Value/Ebitda26.13

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$2.94

Price Target Upside21.99% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering4

OPAL Fuels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOPAL Fuels (OPAL) is a leading provider of renewable natural gas (RNG) solutions, focusing on the production and distribution of low-carbon fuels derived from organic waste. Operating primarily in the clean energy sector, OPAL engages in the development and operation of RNG facilities, catering to various industries such as transportation and utilities that aim to reduce their carbon footprint. The company's core offerings include RNG production, carbon credit generation, and related services that support the transition toward sustainable energy practices.

How the Company Makes MoneyOPAL Fuels generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the production and sale of renewable natural gas (RNG). The company operates its own RNG facilities, converting organic waste into clean energy, which is then sold to utilities and other customers. Additionally, OPAL earns revenue from the sale of renewable identification numbers (RINs) and carbon credits, which are generated as a result of its RNG production. Partnerships with municipalities, agricultural businesses, and waste management companies further enhance its earnings potential by ensuring a steady supply of feedstock for RNG production. The company's strategic alliances and investments in expanding its RNG infrastructure also play a significant role in driving revenue growth.

OPAL Fuels Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Adjusted EBITDA Breakdown

Adjusted EBITDA Breakdown
Provides a detailed look at earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, adjusted for specific items, to assess operational efficiency and cash flow potential.

Chart InsightsOPAL Fuels' RNG Fuel segment is showing robust growth, aligning with a 40% increase in production. The Fuel Station Services segment also surged, contributing significantly to the company's 30% EBITDA growth. However, the Renewable Power segment faces challenges, with revenue declines due to contract terminations. Despite regulatory uncertainties and slow adoption in heavy-duty trucking, OPAL Fuels maintains a strong liquidity position and optimistic guidance, driven by ongoing projects and a promising development pipeline.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

OPAL Fuels Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with notable achievements in production growth, inclusion in significant indices, and legislative support, but these are balanced by challenges including a decline in adjusted EBITDA, lower RIN prices, and nonrecurring expenses.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

RNG Fuel Segment Production Increase

Production in the RNG Fuel segment reached 1.2 million MMBtus, a 33% increase compared to the same period last year.

Fuel Station Services Segment EBITDA Growth

Fuel Station Services segment EBITDA was approximately $11.2 million, 30% higher compared to the second quarter of 2024.

Positive Earnings Per Share

OPAL Fuels achieved positive earnings per share in the second quarter.

Inclusion in Russell Indices

OPAL Fuels was added to the Russell 2000, Russell 2000 Value, and Russell 2000 Growth indices.

Significant Legislative Support

The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act provides extensive benefits for biomethane capture and the extension of the 45Z production tax credit through 2029.

Revenue Growth

Revenue for the quarter was $80.5 million, up from $71 million in the same period last year.

Negative Updates

Adjusted EBITDA Decline

Second quarter adjusted EBITDA was $16.5 million, $4.6 million lower compared to the same period last year due to a lower RIN price environment and other factors.

Lower RIN Prices

Realized RIN price was $2.50 versus $3.13 last year, impacting the company's financial performance.

Loss of ISCC Carbon Credits

The expiration of ISCC carbon credits in the Renewable Power segment in November 2024 continues to impact results.

Nonrecurring Expenses

Increased nonrecurring expenses, including a $2 million G&A expense related to a contract restructuring, affected the quarter’s financials.

Company Guidance

During the OPAL Fuels Second Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company maintained its guidance for the year despite a challenging environment with lower RIN prices and reduced renewable power earnings. The second quarter adjusted EBITDA was $16.5 million, down $4.6 million from the previous year, while revenue was $80.5 million, up from $71 million in Q2 2024. Key highlights included a 33% increase in RNG Fuel segment production to 1.2 million MMBtus and a 30% rise in Fuel Station Services segment EBITDA to approximately $11.2 million. Additionally, OPAL completed the sale of $16.7 million in investment tax credits. The company was added to the Russell 2000 indices, with less than 20% of companies included in both Growth and Value indexes, reflecting its strong platform and growth trajectory. Despite policy uncertainties, OPAL expects positive contributions from the extension of the 45Z production tax credit through 2029, potentially adding at least $2 per MMBtu in salable tax credits for landfill RNG. Looking ahead, OPAL remains focused on executing its strategic growth objectives, with several projects under construction and a robust development pipeline, anticipating continued operational improvements and financial performance in line with annual guidance.

OPAL Fuels Financial Statement Overview

Summary

OPAL Fuels shows stable revenue growth and profit margins, but faces challenges with cash flow and historical equity issues. Improved leverage management is a positive sign, yet cash flow sustainability and operational efficiency need addressing.

Income Statement

Positive

OPAL Fuels shows a moderate performance in its income statement. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.1%. Gross profit margin is stable at 31.3%, and the net profit margin is modest at 3.7%. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased over time, indicating potential challenges in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects a mixed picture. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly to 0.02 in the TTM period, indicating better leverage management. However, the company has faced negative equity in previous years, which poses a risk. Return on equity has improved to 7.7% in the TTM, but historical negative equity raises concerns about financial stability.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with negative free cash flow and a declining free cash flow growth rate. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is below 1, indicating potential cash flow issues. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio suggests that the company is not generating sufficient cash to cover its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	327.16M	299.97M	256.11M	235.53M	166.12M	117.71M
Gross Profit	102.45M	100.12M	72.21M	63.48M	51.06M	27.54M
EBITDA	33.37M	40.95M	152.89M	53.13M	58.89M	7.15M
Net Income	12.06M	11.03M	29.95M	11.32M	210.00K	-25.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	905.54M	881.08M	754.61M	644.86M	380.84M	169.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	29.27M	24.31M	48.22M	105.37M	39.31M	12.82M
Total Debt	18.24M	310.56M	210.61M	179.65M	229.10M	103.83M
Total Liabilities	8.29M	416.05M	297.12M	267.04M	285.89M	139.00M
Stockholders Equity	897.25M	-148.45M	-478.81M	-662.46M	14.00K	23.77M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-47.92M	-94.21M	-75.56M	-132.76M	-70.79M	-22.65M
Operating Cash Flow	74.55M	33.03M	38.27M	-1.35M	18.86M	2.29M
Investing Cash Flow	-125.60M	-134.55M	-74.15M	-184.03M	-117.20M	-22.18M
Financing Cash Flow	88.22M	83.50M	5.90M	220.55M	125.01M	21.45M

OPAL Fuels Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price2.41

Price Trends

50DMA

2.31

Positive

100DMA

2.54

Negative

200DMA

2.52

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.04

Negative

RSI

53.42

Neutral

STOCH

53.14

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OPAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.27, above the 50-day MA of 2.31, and below the 200-day MA of 2.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OPAL.

OPAL Fuels Risk Analysis

OPAL Fuels disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. OPAL Fuels reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

OPAL Fuels Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (66)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NWN	71 Outperform	$1.82B	17.53	7.08%	4.43%	8.40%	17.90%
RGCO	71 Outperform	$232.32M	16.99	11.72%	3.76%	12.04%	5.89%
SPH	68 Neutral	$1.21B	12.43	13.56%	6.99%	6.29%	-1.67%
OPAL	58 Neutral	$438.69M	44.23	-8.53%	―	12.15%	-22.09%
NFE	48 Neutral	$611.79M	-0.56	-76.28%	4.59%	-15.57%	-423.86%
CTRI	42 Neutral	$1.87B	-560.16	-1.21%	―	―	―
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

OPAL

OPAL Fuels

2.41

-1.14

-32.11%

NWN

Northwest Gas

44.23

6.94

18.61%

RGCO

Rgc Resources

21.90

2.25

11.45%

SPH

Suburban Propane

18.60

1.66

9.80%

NFE

New Fortress Energy

2.15

-6.88

-76.19%

CTRI

Centuri Holdings, Inc.

20.67

5.16

33.27%

OPAL Fuels Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

OPAL Fuels Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

Neutral

Jun 18, 2025

On June 18, 2025, OPAL Fuels Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where a total of 251,104,008 votes were represented, constituting a quorum. During the meeting, six directors were elected to serve until the 2026 Annual Meeting, and the appointment of BDO USA, P.C. as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 02, 2025