OPAL Fuels (OPAL)
NASDAQ:OPAL
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OPAL Fuels
(NASDAQ:OPAL)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(2.46% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet instability and persistently negative free cash flow, despite strong revenue/production growth. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages, and valuation looks favorable on a low P/E. Forward guidance and improved liquidity are constructive, but commodity/regulatory headwinds and increased financing obligations temper the upside.
Positive Factors
RNG Production Growth
Sustained multi-year production growth provides a durable revenue base and supports operating scale. Higher throughput improves plant fixed-cost absorption, underpins management's target utilization (~85–86%), and increases the company's ability to convert project buildout into recurring fuel and credit volumes over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Instability
Volatile equity and episodic negative shareholders' equity create unstable leverage metrics and heighten refinancing and dilution risk. Erratic capitalization can limit strategic flexibility, raise borrowing costs, and concentrate governance influence among preferred holders, constraining long-term financial resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
RNG Production Growth
Sustained multi-year production growth provides a durable revenue base and supports operating scale. Higher throughput improves plant fixed-cost absorption, underpins management's target utilization (~85–86%), and increases the company's ability to convert project buildout into recurring fuel and credit volumes over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
OPAL Fuels (OPAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$423.10M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)198.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.4
Beta (1Y)1.56
Revenue Growth7.03%
EPS Growth-86.15%
CountryUS
Employees341
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.02
Shares Outstanding29,001,120
10 Day Avg. Volume225,648
30 Day Avg. Volume198,551
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-5.14
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-1.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.97
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.37
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.30Price Target Upside35.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$397.83M
OPAL Fuels Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
OPAL Fuels Inc. engages in the production and distribution of renewable natural gas for use as a vehicle fuel for heavy and medium-duty trucking fleets. It also designs, develops, constructs, operates, and services fueling stations for trucking fl...
How the Company Makes Money
OPAL makes money primarily by selling renewable natural gas (RNG) used as a transportation fuel and by earning environmental attribute revenues tied to RNG. Key revenue streams include: (1) Sale of RNG as a physical commodity: OPAL produces or sou...
OPAL Fuels Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus areas.
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOPAL Fuels Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 16, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly constructive operational and liquidity picture: material production growth (28% YoY), improved plant utilization, expansion of owned fueling stations, and strengthened capital structure (new $180M preferred facility and credit draws). These positives were offset by meaningful macro and commodity headwinds—chiefly a ~ $0.70 decline in realized D3 RIN prices that reduced adjusted EBITDA by roughly $33M, the expiration of an ISCC pathway contribution (> $10M in 2024), and delayed downstream demand from fleet deferrals and adverse winter weather. Management delivered 2026 guidance implying modest growth (midpoint ~14%) and emphasized cautious, disciplined capital allocation. On balance, operational momentum, improved liquidity, and forward guidance outweigh the near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong RNG Production Growth
RNG production reached 4.9 million MMBtu in 2025, up 28% year-over-year; fourth-quarter production exceeded 1.3 million MMBtu, ~24% higher versus Q4 2024. Management expects 2026 production of 5.4–5.8 million MMBtu (>14% growth versus 2025).
Negative Updates
Decline in RIN Prices and Significant EBITDA Headwind
Realized D3 RIN price averaged $2.45 in 2025 versus $3.13 in 2024 (decline of ≈$0.68–$0.70), which management estimates reduced adjusted EBITDA by approximately $33 million in 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong RNG Production Growth
RNG production reached 4.9 million MMBtu in 2025, up 28% year-over-year; fourth-quarter production exceeded 1.3 million MMBtu, ~24% higher versus Q4 2024. Management expects 2026 production of 5.4–5.8 million MMBtu (>14% growth versus 2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
OPAL guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $95–$110 million (midpoint ≈ $102.5M, ~14% growth vs 2025’s $90.2M) and RNG production of 5.4–5.8 million MMBtu (>14% vs 2025’s 4.9M MMBtu), assuming ~$15–$20M of 45Z credits; it expects roughly $154M of 2026 CapEx (primarily committed upstream projects plus some fueling stations), targets plant utilization of ~85–86% (up from ~70%→~80% in 2025), and reiterates a rough long-run economics of about $20 of EBITDA/cash flow per MMBtu. The guidance factors in a difficult winter start to 2026 and is supported by year-end liquidity (~$184M total: ≈$30M cash, $138M undrawn term capacity, $16M revolver), a $180M Series A preferred facility, ~ $128M drawn on the term loan, and an in-construction pipeline of ~2.8M MMBtu (with management noting potential for ~2.0M MMBtu of early-days production).OPAL Fuels Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
32
Negative
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 348.98M | 299.97M | 256.11M | 235.53M | 166.12M |
| Gross Profit | 83.81M | 100.12M | 72.21M | 72.74M | 51.06M |
| EBITDA | 28.13M | 40.95M | 150.74M | 53.31M | 58.24M |
| Net Income | 14.75M | 11.03M | 29.95M | 11.32M | 210.00K |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 959.47M | 881.08M | 754.61M | 644.86M | 380.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.41M | 24.31M | 48.22M | 105.37M | 39.31M |
| Total Debt | 365.43M | 310.56M | 210.61M | 179.65M | 229.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 461.71M | 416.05M | 297.12M | 267.04M | 285.89M |
| Stockholders Equity | -12.93M | -148.45M | -478.81M | -800.60M | 14.00K |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -34.24M | -94.21M | -75.56M | -132.76M | -70.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 36.50M | 33.03M | 38.27M | -1.35M | 18.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -77.32M | -134.55M | -74.15M | -184.03M | -117.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 41.56M | 83.50M | 5.90M | 220.55M | 125.01M |
OPAL Fuels Technical Analysis
Positive
2.44
Price Trends
2.26
Positive
2.34
Positive
2.36
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Negative
55.26
Neutral
77.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OPAL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.35, above the 50-day MA of 2.26, and above the 200-day MA of 2.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for OPAL.
OPAL Fuels Risk Analysis
OPAL Fuels disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. OPAL Fuels reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
OPAL Fuels Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $2.31B | 16.85 | 7.78% | 4.18% | 11.27% | 20.04% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $240.84M | 11.15 | 11.11% | 3.75% | 12.63% | 10.99% | |
65 Neutral | $1.31B | 6.81 | 20.91% | 6.97% | 7.94% | 43.23% | |
58 Neutral | $3.37B | 20.03 | 3.50% | ― | ― | ― | |
56 Neutral | $423.10M | 3.40 | -40.95% | ― | 7.03% | -86.15% | |
43 Neutral | $199.87M | -0.52 | -87.35% | ― | -27.23% | -634.60% |
* Utilities Sector Average
OPAL
OPAL Fuels
2.44
1.08
79.41%
NWN
Northwest Gas
55.60
16.14
40.91%
RGCO
Rgc Resources
23.17
1.91
8.99%
SPH
Suburban Propane
19.73
1.19
6.40%
NFE
New Fortress Energy
0.70
-5.20
-88.10%
CTRI
Centuri Holdings, Inc.
33.69
16.20
92.62%
OPAL Fuels Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
OPAL Fuels Secures New Preferred Equity and Debt Financing
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 6, 2026, OPAL Fuels LLC entered into a subscription agreement with Preferred Fuels LLC, an affiliate of majority shareholder Fortistar, for a preferred equity facility of up to $180 million in Series A preferred units. At the initial clos...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.