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OPAL Fuels
(NASDAQ:OPAL)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▼(-2.34% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/30/26
OPAL’s score is held back primarily by financial risk: extremely high leverage, historically weak equity, and persistently negative free cash flow despite positive operating cash flow and thin net margins. The earnings call provides a partial offset with reiterated guidance, improved liquidity/financing, tax-credit monetization, and expected production/capacity acceleration, but near-term results remain pressured by RIN realizations, weather sensitivity, and earnings volatility. Valuation is not compelling at a ~35x P/E with no dividend yield provided, and technical signals are unavailable, resulting in a mostly neutral technical contribution.
Positive Factors
Integrated RNG production and distribution
OPAL combines upstream RNG production with downstream fueling and distribution, allowing it to capture margins across the value chain. This vertical integration supports durable commercial relationships with fleet customers, improves margin control, and reduces reliance on third-party offtake over multi-year project life.
Negative Factors
Extremely high leverage and thin equity
A capital structure with debt nearly two orders of magnitude above equity leaves minimal loss-absorption capacity. High leverage increases refinancing, interest‑rate, and covenant risk, limiting strategic flexibility and elevating the likelihood that future shocks could force dilutive financing or asset sales.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated RNG production and distribution
OPAL combines upstream RNG production with downstream fueling and distribution, allowing it to capture margins across the value chain. This vertical integration supports durable commercial relationships with fleet customers, improves margin control, and reduces reliance on third-party offtake over multi-year project life.
Read all positive factors
OPAL Fuels Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus areas.
Analyzes income from different business areas, highlighting which segments drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOPAL Fuels (OPAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$365.24M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)198.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.6
Beta (1Y)1.55
Revenue Growth4.01%
EPS Growth163.93%
CountryUS
Employees341
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRegulated Gas
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding30,357,544
10 Day Avg. Volume225,648
30 Day Avg. Volume198,551
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)-5.14
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio-1.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.80Price Target Upside9.37% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$366.20M
OPAL Fuels Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
OPAL Fuels Inc. focuses on the creation and distribution of renewable natural gas (RNG), supplying it as an alternative vehicle fuel primarily for heavy and medium-duty commercial trucking fleets. Beyond merely providing fuel, the company also spe...
How the Company Makes Money
OPAL primarily makes money by selling renewable natural gas (RNG) used as vehicle fuel and by monetizing the environmental attributes associated with RNG. Key revenue streams include: (1) RNG fuel sales: OPAL sells RNG (often as compressed natural...
OPAL Fuels Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced near-term operational and commodity-related headwinds (Q1 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA declines, weather impacts, and RIN-related EBITDA drag) with a number of constructive developments: production growth (+9% YoY), secured financing and ~$233M liquidity, tax-credit monetization, an active project pipeline (projects coming online late 2026–H1 2027 and >2M MMBtu of design capacity expected), and encouraging commercial momentum for future fleet conversions. Management reiterated full-year 2026 guidance and emphasized investments and execution that support growth in 2027 and beyond. Overall, the positives around financing, project execution, production improvement, and market fundamentals appear to outweigh the short-term challenges.Positive Updates
RNG Production Growth
RNG production reached 1.2 million MMBtu in Q1 (up 9% year-over-year), reflecting improved execution across operating facilities and growth in the biogas resource.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue Decline
Q1 revenue was $73.3 million versus $85.4 million a year earlier, a decline of approximately 14.2% year-over-year, driven by lower RIN realizations and timing/volume mix in station construction revenues.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
RNG Production Growth
RNG production reached 1.2 million MMBtu in Q1 (up 9% year-over-year), reflecting improved execution across operating facilities and growth in the biogas resource.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance while detailing Q1 metrics: adjusted EBITDA of $16.7 million (down from $20.1M a year ago), revenue of $73.3 million (vs. $85.4M), RNG production of 1.2 million MMBtu (up 9% YoY), and fuel‑station services EBITDA of $9.2M (vs. $10.9M). They attributed a roughly $3.4M YoY EBITDA decline primarily to lower RIN realizations (D3 realized $2.41 in Q1, down $0.30 vs. 2025, with an estimated ~$4M EBITDA impact) even as the broader RIN market has strengthened (D4/D5/D6 over $2 and D3 trading above $2.50). Operationally, management expects accelerating production growth starting in Q2, plans to bring more than 2.0 million MMBtu of annual design capacity online over the next year, has 16 OPAL‑owned stations in construction, and ended the quarter with approximately $233M of liquidity (≈$133M cash & short‑term investments, $60M undrawn preferred commitments, $39M revolver availability) after completing $288M of financings (including a $180M preferred facility and a $109M term‑loan draw); they also sold $11.5M of ITC credits and executed a $100M agreement to monetize Section 45Z production tax credits.OPAL Fuels Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 336.94M | 348.98M | 299.97M | 256.11M | 235.53M | 166.12M |
| Gross Profit | 98.94M | 106.18M | 100.12M | 72.21M | 72.74M | 51.06M |
| EBITDA | 30.90M | 34.43M | 40.95M | 150.74M | 53.31M | 58.24M |
| Net Income | 19.26M | 14.75M | 11.03M | 29.95M | 11.32M | 210.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.06B | 959.47M | 881.08M | 754.61M | 644.86M | 380.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 134.17M | 24.41M | 24.31M | 48.22M | 105.37M | 39.31M |
| Total Debt | 447.17M | 365.43M | 310.56M | 210.61M | 179.65M | 229.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 548.71M | 461.71M | 416.05M | 297.12M | 267.04M | 285.89M |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.22M | -12.93M | -148.45M | -478.81M | -800.60M | 14.00K |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -58.65M | -34.24M | -94.21M | -75.56M | -132.76M | -70.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 24.89M | 36.50M | 33.03M | 38.27M | -1.35M | 18.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -92.59M | -77.32M | -134.55M | -74.15M | -184.03M | -117.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 161.42M | 41.56M | 83.50M | 5.90M | 220.55M | 125.01M |
OPAL Fuels Technical Analysis
Negative
2.56
Price Trends
2.10
Negative
2.19
Negative
2.30
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
49.51
Neutral
50.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OPAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.01, above the 50-day MA of 2.10, and above the 200-day MA of 2.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OPAL.
OPAL Fuels Risk Analysis
OPAL Fuels disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. OPAL Fuels reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
OPAL Fuels Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $1.16B | 8.94 | 20.40% | 6.97% | -2.19% | 37.18% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
63 Neutral | $244.67M | 17.28 | 11.87% | 3.75% | 17.51% | 5.98% | |
57 Neutral | $2.05B | 16.67 | 8.27% | 4.18% | 5.90% | 16.54% | |
57 Neutral | $2.77B | 77.10 | 4.27% | ― | 18.67% | 3110.38% | |
49 Neutral | $365.24M | 31.60 | -346.00% | ― | 4.01% | 163.93% | |
39 Underperform | $108.00M | -0.05 | -379.42% | ― | -41.65% | -234.82% |
* Utilities Sector Average
OPAL
OPAL Fuels
2.07
-0.51
-19.77%
NWN
Northwest Gas
49.81
10.50
26.69%
RGCO
Rgc Resources
23.72
1.60
7.25%
SPH
Suburban Propane
17.87
0.82
4.79%
NFE
New Fortress Energy
0.37
-3.43
-90.37%
CTRI
Centuri Holdings, Inc.
26.57
5.22
24.45%
OPAL Fuels Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
OPAL Fuels Stockholders Approve Directors and Auditor Slate
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 17, 2026, OPAL Fuels Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with 256,957,639 votes represented out of a total 265,823,034 available, confirming a quorum across its Class A, Class B and higher-vote Class D shares. Stockholders e...
Business Operations and Strategy
OPAL Fuels, GFL advance landfill RNG facilities expansion
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
On June 3, 2026, OPAL Fuels and GFL Environmental announced they had advanced construction of two jointly owned renewable natural gas facilities at the Stones Throw Landfill in Tallapoosa County, Alabama, and the Grady Road Landfill in Polk County...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
OPAL Fuels Tightens Series A-1 Preferred Unit Terms
Neutral
May 20, 2026
On May 18, 2026, OPAL Fuels LLC approved an Amended and Restated Certificate of Designations for its Series A-1 Preferred Units, aligning most terms with its Series A Preferred Units while excluding board appointment rights for Series A-1 holders....
Financial Disclosures
OPAL Fuels Schedules Release of First-Quarter 2026 Results
Neutral
Apr 28, 2026
On April 28, 2026, OPAL Fuels announced it will report financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, before the market opens on Monday, May 11, 2026. The company will host a conference call later that morning at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.