OPAL Fuels (OPAL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $350.26M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 198.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 96.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.65
• Revenue Growth: 7.03%
• EPS Growth: -86.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 341
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 28,996,178
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 225,648
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 198,551
• PEG Ratio: -0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.31
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.81
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▼(-25.37% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/09/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/09/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (revenue decline, margin pressure, negative EBIT, negative free cash flow) and an expensive valuation (very high P/E). Offsetting factors include a steadier technical picture and a mixed-but-constructive earnings call highlighting strong RNG production growth, project expansion, and solid liquidity despite RIN-price and regulatory headwinds.

Positive Factors

RNG production growth

A 30% YoY increase to 1.3M MMBtus demonstrates durable operational scaling and stronger feedstock conversion. Higher, sustained production boosts recurring commodity sales and credit generation, improving long-term revenue base and spreading fixed plant costs over larger volumes.

Expanding project footprint

Growth from 2 to 12 facilities signals a deeper, diversified asset base and multi-year capacity expansion. A larger project footprint supports stable feedstock sourcing, operational redundancy, and higher absolute credit generation, reinforcing a long-term platform for fleet and infrastructure contracts.

Strong reported liquidity and ITC monetization

$184M total liquidity and $43M from ITC monetization provide a durable financial buffer to fund project construction and operations without immediate equity dilution. Ability to monetize tax credits shows financial structuring capability and supports near-term capital needs for growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue and margin compression

Sustained revenue decline and compressed margins reduce internal cash generation and limit reinvestment. Negative EBIT and FCF constrain the company’s ability to self-fund expansion, increasing reliance on external financing and making long-term project economics more sensitive to credit and commodity cycles.

Dependence on volatile RIN/LCFS credits

Material sensitivity to environmental credit prices creates recurring earnings volatility. Lower RIN/LCFS prices materially reduced adjusted EBITDA, indicating revenue and margin durability are tied to regulatory markets beyond OPAL’s control, raising structural earnings risk over the medium term.

Balance sheet and equity instability

Prior negative equity and low ROE signal financial instability and constrain borrowing capacity. Fragile equity metrics increase refinancing risk and limit flexibility for large capital projects, making sustained expansion or weathering prolonged credit-price weakness more challenging without dilutive financing.

OPAL Fuels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

OPAL Fuels (OPAL) is a leading provider of renewable natural gas (RNG) solutions, focusing on the production and distribution of low-carbon fuels derived from organic waste. Operating primarily in the clean energy sector, OPAL engages in the development and operation of RNG facilities, catering to various industries such as transportation and utilities that aim to reduce their carbon footprint. The company's core offerings include RNG production, carbon credit generation, and related services that support the transition toward sustainable energy practices.

How the Company Makes Money

OPAL Fuels generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the production and sale of renewable natural gas (RNG). The company operates its own RNG facilities, converting organic waste into clean energy, which is then sold to utilities and other customers. Additionally, OPAL earns revenue from the sale of renewable identification numbers (RINs) and carbon credits, which are generated as a result of its RNG production. Partnerships with municipalities, agricultural businesses, and waste management companies further enhance its earnings potential by ensuring a steady supply of feedstock for RNG production. The company's strategic alliances and investments in expanding its RNG infrastructure also play a significant role in driving revenue growth.

OPAL Fuels Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak fundamentals: TTM revenue declined (-20.9%), profitability compressed (gross margin down to 22.58%, EBIT margin negative), and free cash flow remains negative. Balance sheet risk is elevated with prior negative equity and low ROE (4.84%), despite some positive EBITDA margin (3.40%).

Income Statement

OPAL Fuels has experienced a decline in revenue growth with a negative rate of -20.9% in the TTM period, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum. The gross profit margin has decreased from 33.38% in 2024 to 22.58% in the TTM period, reflecting increased cost pressures. The net profit margin also decreased to 2.59% in the TTM period from 3.68% in 2024, showing reduced profitability. The EBIT margin turned negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies. However, the EBITDA margin remains positive at 3.40%, suggesting some resilience in operational cash generation.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a concerning trend with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage. The return on equity is low at 4.84%, reflecting limited returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is not directly calculable due to negative equity in previous periods, suggesting financial instability. The company's high leverage poses a risk to financial stability, especially in a volatile market.

Cash Flow

OPAL Fuels' cash flow statement reveals a mixed picture. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.54, indicating moderate cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow remains negative, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is -1.55, suggesting challenges in generating positive free cash flow. The free cash flow growth rate is positive at 571.3% in the TTM period, but this is from a negative base, indicating volatility in cash flow generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	329.24M	299.97M	256.11M	235.53M	166.12M	117.71M
Gross Profit	100.70M	100.12M	72.21M	72.74M	51.06M	27.54M
EBITDA	24.17M	40.95M	150.74M	53.31M	58.24M	7.15M
Net Income	11.15M	11.03M	29.95M	11.32M	210.00K	-25.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	916.75M	881.08M	754.61M	644.86M	380.84M	169.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	29.93M	24.31M	48.22M	105.37M	39.31M	12.82M
Total Debt	353.55M	310.56M	210.61M	179.65M	229.10M	103.83M
Total Liabilities	433.95M	416.05M	297.12M	267.04M	285.89M	139.00M
Stockholders Equity	7.48M	-148.45M	-478.81M	-800.60M	14.00K	23.77M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-71.64M	-94.21M	-75.56M	-132.76M	-70.79M	-22.65M
Operating Cash Flow	43.68M	33.03M	38.27M	-1.35M	18.86M	2.29M
Investing Cash Flow	-120.49M	-134.55M	-74.15M	-184.03M	-117.20M	-22.18M
Financing Cash Flow	86.89M	83.50M	5.90M	220.55M	125.01M	21.45M

OPAL Fuels Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.68
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OPAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.28, above the 50-day MA of 2.39, and above the 200-day MA of 2.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OPAL.

OPAL Fuels Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NWN	73 Outperform	$2.08B	19.95	7.20%	4.18%	11.27%	20.04%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
SPH	65 Neutral	$1.34B	10.11	22.70%	6.97%	7.94%	43.23%
RGCO	62 Neutral	$221.09M	16.86	11.98%	3.75%	12.63%	10.99%
CTRI	56 Neutral	$3.08B	1,105.71	0.45%	―	―	―
OPAL	47 Neutral	$350.26M	96.19	―	―	7.03%	-86.15%
NFE	43 Neutral	$327.24M	-0.23	-96.21%	―	-27.23%	-634.60%