OPAL Fuels (OPAL) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

99 Followers

Top Page

OPAL Fuels

(NASDAQ:OPAL)

Rating:53Neutral

Price Target:

$2.50

▼(-0.40%Downside)

OPAL Fuels' overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance with significant revenue and EBITDA growth. However, challenges such as high leverage, negative free cash flow, and valuation concerns due to a high P/E ratio and no dividend yield impact its attractiveness. Mixed technical indicators and regulatory uncertainties further moderate the score.

OPAL Fuels (OPAL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$435.16M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)252.57K

Price to Earnings (P/E)103.3

Beta (1Y)1.30

Revenue Growth16.30%

EPS Growth-96.72%

CountryUS

Employees341

SectorUtilities

Sector Strength78

IndustryRegulated Gas

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.01

Shares Outstanding28,971,882

10 Day Avg. Volume160,141

30 Day Avg. Volume252,571

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.06

Price to Book (P/B)0.08

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-1.11

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.08

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.11

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.66

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.29

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$3.56

Price Target Upside41.83% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering4

OPAL Fuels Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOPAL Fuels (OPAL) is a leading provider of renewable natural gas (RNG) and related infrastructure solutions. The company operates within the renewable energy sector, focusing on the production and distribution of sustainable RNG derived from organic waste sources. OPAL Fuels offers comprehensive services, including the design, construction, and operation of RNG facilities, as well as the development of fueling stations for clean transportation solutions.

How the Company Makes MoneyOPAL Fuels generates revenue primarily through the sale of renewable natural gas, which is produced at its biogas facilities. The company monetizes RNG by selling it as a cleaner alternative to conventional fossil fuels, particularly for use in transportation and industrial processes. Another key revenue stream comes from the development and operation of RNG fueling infrastructure, where OPAL Fuels provides solutions for fleets and other customers looking to transition to low-carbon fuel options. Additionally, OPAL Fuels benefits from various government incentives and environmental credits, such as Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) and Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits, which enhance the financial returns of their RNG projects.

OPAL Fuels Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Adjusted EBITDA Breakdown

Adjusted EBITDA Breakdown
Provides a detailed look at earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, adjusted for specific items, to assess operational efficiency and cash flow potential.

Chart InsightsOPAL Fuels' RNG Fuel segment is showing robust growth, aligning with a 40% increase in production. The Fuel Station Services segment also surged, contributing significantly to the company's 30% EBITDA growth. However, the Renewable Power segment faces challenges, with revenue declines due to contract terminations. Despite regulatory uncertainties and slow adoption in heavy-duty trucking, OPAL Fuels maintains a strong liquidity position and optimistic guidance, driven by ongoing projects and a promising development pipeline.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

OPAL Fuels Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 4.15%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlights OPAL Fuels' significant growth in EBITDA, revenue, and RNG production, demonstrating strong performance across its segments. However, challenges persist in regulatory uncertainties and adoption rates in heavy-duty trucking, alongside a decrease in renewable power segment revenue. Despite these obstacles, the company's liquidity and production guidance remain strong.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Significant EBITDA Growth

First quarter adjusted EBITDA was $20.1 million, over 30% higher compared to the same period last year.

Fuel Station Services Segment Performance

First quarter 2025 fuel station services segment EBITDA was approximately $12.5 million, 80% higher versus the first quarter of 2024.

Increase in RNG Fuel Production

RNG fuel production for the quarter was 1.1 million MMBtus, up nearly 40% versus the same period last year.

Revenue and Net Income Growth

Revenue for the quarter was $85 million compared to $64.9 million in the same period last year. Net income was $1.3 million, up from $700,000 in Q1 2024.

Strong Liquidity Position

Total liquidity was $240 million, including over $40 million in cash and cash equivalents, and more than $178 million of undrawn availability under the term credit facility.

Positive Outlook for RNG Production

Maintained 2025 RNG production guidance of 5 million MMBtus to 5.4 million MMBtus, a 37% increase versus 2024.

Negative Updates

Regulatory and Trade Policy Uncertainties

Uncertain macro and regulatory environments are causing delays in investment decisions among customers and partners.

Challenges in Heavy-Duty Trucking Adoption

No acceleration in the adoption of CNG/RNG for heavy-duty trucking due to delays in regulatory clarity and product availability.

Decrease in Equity Method Investments EBITDA

OPAL's share of adjusted EBITDA from equity method investments was $3.4 million for the quarter, down from $6.5 million in Q1 2024.

Renewable Power Segment Revenue Decline

Revenue from the renewable power segment was down due to terminated ISCC pathway contracts in the fourth quarter of last year.

Company Guidance

During the OPAL Fuels First Quarter 2025 Earnings Results Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and guidance updates. First quarter adjusted EBITDA reached $20.1 million, marking a 30% increase from the previous year, with the fuel station services segment contributing $12.5 million, an 80% rise from the same period last year. RNG fuel production was 1.1 million MMBtus, up 40% year-over-year. For the full year, OPAL Fuels maintained its guidance, expecting adjusted EBITDA between $90 million and $110 million and RNG production between 5.0 to 5.4 million MMBtus. The company also highlighted ongoing projects, including four landfill RNG projects under construction with a combined design capacity of 2.1 million MMBtus. These projects, along with a robust development pipeline, are expected to drive sequential quarterly RNG production growth. Despite some macro and regulatory uncertainties, OPAL Fuels remains optimistic about long-term growth potential, particularly with the introduction of new 15-liter engines and evolving regulatory support for RNG/CNG-powered heavy-duty trucking.

OPAL Fuels Financial Statement Overview

Summary

OPAL Fuels shows strong revenue growth and improved operational efficiency, but faces challenges with thin net profit margins and high leverage. Positive trends in EBITDA and cash flow generation are offset by negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures.

Income Statement

Positive

OPAL Fuels has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a significant increase from $117.7M in 2020 to $320.4M in the TTM period ending March 2025. Gross profit margins have improved over the years, reflecting effective cost management. However, net profit margins remain thin due to consistent operating expenses, despite the rising revenues. The EBITDA margin has shown a positive trajectory, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet shows improvement with positive stockholders' equity in the TTM period, contrasting previous periods of negative equity due to accumulated deficits. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly, reflecting a reduction in debt levels and increased equity. However, the equity ratio remains low, indicating potential risks from high leverage and limited asset financing through equity.

Cash Flow

Neutral

OPAL Fuels has shown improvement in operating cash flow, which has increased over the years, indicating better cash generation from core operations. However, negative free cash flow persists due to high capital expenditures, impacting overall cash health. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests that cash generation is aligned with reported earnings, although the company needs to address its capital spending to achieve positive free cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	299.97M	256.11M	235.53M	166.12M	117.71M
Gross Profit	100.12M	72.21M	63.48M	51.06M	27.54M
EBITDA	40.95M	152.89M	53.13M	21.68M	-12.19M
Net Income	11.03M	29.95M	3.39M	31.91M	-29.92M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	881.08M	754.61M	644.86M	380.84M	169.46M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	24.31M	48.22M	105.37M	39.31M	12.82M
Total Debt	310.56M	210.61M	179.65M	229.10M	100.78M
Total Liabilities	416.05M	297.12M	267.04M	285.89M	139.00M
Stockholders Equity	-148.45M	-478.81M	-662.46M	30.22M	-25.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-94.21M	-75.56M	-132.76M	-70.79M	-22.65M
Operating Cash Flow	33.03M	38.27M	-1.35M	18.86M	2.29M
Investing Cash Flow	-134.55M	-74.15M	-184.03M	-117.20M	-22.18M
Financing Cash Flow	84.13M	5.90M	220.55M	125.01M	21.45M

OPAL Fuels Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price2.51

Price Trends

50DMA

2.80

Negative

100DMA

2.32

Positive

200DMA

2.86

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.06

Negative

RSI

43.56

Neutral

STOCH

50.67

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OPAL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.52, below the 50-day MA of 2.80, and below the 200-day MA of 2.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.67 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OPAL.

OPAL Fuels Risk Analysis

OPAL Fuels disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. OPAL Fuels reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

OPAL Fuels Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RGCO	72 Outperform	$212.63M	16.02	11.60%	3.99%	9.74%	-1.29%
NWN	71 Outperform	$1.65B	16.22	7.36%	4.79%	3.88%	11.80%
SPH	66 Neutral	$1.21B	12.89	14.42%	7.00%	4.02%	-14.66%
Sector *	60 Neutral	C$5.13B	-24.83	-19.26%	3.76%	12.02%	-69.08%
NFE	56 Neutral	$1.04B	11.07	-28.26%	10.04%	-15.03%	-201.87%
OPAL	53 Neutral	$435.16M	103.29	-8.53%	―	16.30%	-96.72%
CTRI	47 Neutral	$1.93B	2,071.43	0.11%	―	―	―

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

OPAL

OPAL Fuels

2.50

-1.62

-39.32%

NWN

Northwest Gas

40.50

1.80

4.65%

RGCO

Rgc Resources

20.51

-0.22

-1.06%

SPH

Suburban Propane

18.49

1.21

7.00%

NFE

New Fortress Energy LLC

3.98

-15.38

-79.44%

CTRI

Centuri Holdings, Inc.

21.75

6.03

38.36%

OPAL Fuels Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

OPAL Fuels Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

Neutral

Jun 18, 2025

On June 18, 2025, OPAL Fuels Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where a total of 251,104,008 votes were represented, constituting a quorum. During the meeting, six directors were elected to serve until the 2026 Annual Meeting, and the appointment of BDO USA, P.C. as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified.

The most recent analyst rating on (OPAL) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OPAL Fuels stock, see the OPAL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025