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Onity Group Inc. (ONIT)
:ONIT
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Onity Group (ONIT) AI Stock Analysis

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ONIT

Onity Group

(NYSE:ONIT)

Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$39.00
▲(0.49% Upside)
Onity Group's overall stock score reflects a mix of strengths and challenges. The most significant impact comes from the positive outcomes of the latest earnings call, indicating strong financial performance and strategic growth. However, financial performance issues persist due to high leverage and cash flow challenges. The technical analysis suggests mild bullish momentum, while valuation indicates moderate pricing. Investors should be cautious of financial risks but may find potential in the company's growth strategy.

Onity Group (ONIT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Onity Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOnity Group Inc., a financial services company, originates and services forward and reserve mortgage loans in the United States, the United States Virgin Islands, India, and the Philippines. It operates through the Servicing and Originations segments. The company offers owned mortgage servicing rights and subservicing products; conventional, government-insured, and non-agency mortgage loans, as well as reverse mortgage and multi-family loans; and residential forward mortgage and small commercial mortgage loans. It also originates and purchases conventional and government-insured residential forward and reverse mortgage loans through its correspondent lending arrangements, broker relationships, and retail channels. The company offers its services under the PHH Mortgage and Liberty Reverse Mortgage brands. It serves financial institutions. The company was formerly known as Ocwen Financial Corporation and changed its name to Onity Group Inc. in June 2024. Onity Group Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in West Palm Beach, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyOnity generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling electronic locking systems and access control solutions to hotels, residential complexes, and commercial enterprises. The company also earns income through the installation and maintenance of its products, providing ongoing support and software updates. Key revenue streams include direct sales of hardware, subscription services for mobile access solutions, and recurring service contracts. Significant partnerships with major hotel chains and property management companies further bolster Onity's earnings by ensuring a steady demand for its products and services.

Onity Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 3.41%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong net income growth, impressive origination volume, and effective technology investments, despite challenges posed by market volatility affecting originations and a decline in reverse servicing income.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Robust Net Income and Book Value Growth
For the second quarter, Onity Group delivered a GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders of $20 million or $2.40 per share fully diluted, reflecting an annualized ROE of 17%. Book value increased to $60 per share, up 5% versus prior year.
Strong Originations Volume Growth
The origination team delivered 35% year-over-year growth in originations volume versus the industry's 23% growth over the same period.
Impressive Consumer Direct Recapture Rates
Consumer Direct team increased funded volume 2.4x versus the second quarter of 2024 with a refinance recapture rate slightly above peers, achieving 88% recapture rate for loans previously originated by their channel.
Technology and AI Investment Impact
AI investments have delivered meaningful process performance improvements, saving approximately 57,000 hours per month of manual efforts year-to-date.
Maintained Strong Servicing Platform
Servicing segment delivered $31 million in adjusted pretax income, with forward servicing experiencing growth in average UPB and being recognized for industry-leading servicing performance.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility Impact on Originations
Interest rate volatility in April impacted origination profitability by over $4 million, leading to slightly lower adjusted pretax income year-over-year for originations.
Reverse Servicing Pretax Income Decline
Reverse servicing pretax income declined primarily due to negative valuation adjustments on reverse buyout loans.
Higher MSR Runoff
Increased MSR runoff due to higher prepayment speeds, resulting in approximately $8 million higher than the previous year.
Company Guidance
During the Onity Group's second quarter 2025 earnings call, guidance highlighted strong financial performance despite market volatility. The company reported a GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders of $20 million, or $2.40 per share fully diluted, reflecting an annualized ROE of 17%. Adjusted pretax income was $16 million, leading to an annualized adjusted ROE of 14%. Book value increased to $60 per share, up 5% from the previous year. The company reaffirmed its annual adjusted ROE guidance of 16% to 18% for the full year, underscoring its commitment to delivering strong shareholder returns. The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasted a 14% year-over-year growth in origination volumes, although volatile interest rates and slower home sales remain challenges. Onity's origination team achieved a 35% year-over-year growth versus the industry's 23%. The company continues to leverage technology and process optimization to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency.

Onity Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Onity Group's financial statements indicate significant challenges, including high leverage and inconsistent profitability. The income statement shows moderate operational efficiency but struggles with net profit margins and revenue growth. The balance sheet highlights financial risk due to high debt levels, and cash flow management is strained with negative free cash flow growth, suggesting difficulties in generating cash from operations.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Onity Group's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin has been relatively stable, but the net profit margin is weak due to inconsistent net income, with a recent return to profitability. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a decline in the latest year. EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, indicating operational efficiency but also highlighting challenges in maintaining profitability.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reveals high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio indicating significant reliance on debt financing. Return on equity is low, reflecting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is weak, suggesting limited buffer against liabilities. Overall, the balance sheet indicates financial risk due to high debt levels.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows negative free cash flow growth, indicating cash outflows exceeding inflows. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting operational cash challenges. Free cash flow to net income is also negative, suggesting difficulties in generating cash from operations. Overall, cash flow management appears strained.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.09B1.07B1.14B999.50M1.08B976.80M
Gross Profit513.50M495.60M584.50M459.20M521.00M524.80M
EBITDA232.30M256.10M238.80M285.50M235.80M175.50M
Net Income25.90M33.90M-63.70M25.70M18.10M-40.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets16.26B16.44B12.51B12.40B12.15B10.65B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments178.00M184.80M213.10M274.20M263.45M357.26M
Total Debt14.64B14.74B10.93B10.46B10.47B9.29B
Total Liabilities15.75B15.94B12.11B11.94B11.67B10.24B
Stockholders Equity510.10M492.90M401.80M456.70M476.70M415.37M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-729.90M-807.00M-111.80M-31.70M-1.30B-16.30M
Operating Cash Flow-424.80M-573.80M10.40M173.20M-468.40M261.00M
Investing Cash Flow824.70M401.30M-100.30M-120.80M-1.01B-527.90M
Financing Cash Flow-414.30M182.90M70.80M-13.40M1.38B131.80M

Onity Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price38.81
Price Trends
50DMA
37.67
Positive
100DMA
35.50
Positive
200DMA
33.84
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.12
Negative
RSI
57.97
Neutral
STOCH
55.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONIT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 38.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.75, above the 50-day MA of 37.67, and above the 200-day MA of 33.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ONIT.

Onity Group Risk Analysis

Onity Group disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Onity Group reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Onity Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$606.12M8.6213.62%32.62%16.91%
67
Neutral
¥764.28B11.147.42%3.20%7.66%14.08%
59
Neutral
$2.59B25.945.62%3.55%6.68%6.08%
59
Neutral
$310.81M10.177.55%-3.14%264.15%
57
Neutral
$1.24B28.613.71%2.52%42.92%64.72%
57
Neutral
$219.60M9.767.02%4.96%12.43%
48
Neutral
$554.25M-29.48%3.76%16.19%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ONIT
Onity Group
38.81
11.73
43.32%
SNFCA
Security National Financial
8.92
1.52
20.54%
WD
Walker & Dunlop
76.14
-23.13
-23.30%
LDI
loanDepot
1.92
-0.38
-16.52%
VEL
Velocity Financial
16.61
-1.76
-9.58%
GHLD
Guild Holdings
19.87
4.57
29.87%

Onity Group Corporate Events

Shareholder Meetings
Onity Group Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
May 21, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Onity Group held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where three key proposals were voted on. Shareholders elected directors for one-year terms, ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025, and approved the executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONIT) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Onity Group stock, see the ONIT Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 02, 2025