Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY) AI Stock Analysis

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Positive Factors

Clinical Development

Pelareorep’s clinical momentum across multiple tumor types reinforces the view that Oncolytics is approaching a critical inflection point.

Financial Valuation

The stock is believed to be undervalued at current levels with multiple catalysts ahead.

Regulatory Progress

Oncolytics Biotech is planning to launch a P2 study in breast cancer, with the intent of seeking accelerated approval, following positive feedback from the FDA.

Negative Factors

Capital Needs

The estimated cash burn and current cash reserves indicate a potential need for additional funding, which could impact financial stability.

Management Changes

Oncolytics is continuing to actively search for a Chief Executive Officer, as well as exploring potential BD opportunities.

Potential Dilution

Oncolytics Biotech is expected to need to raise capital soon to fund its programs, which may lead to potential dilution and has resulted in the lowering of the 12-month price target.

Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$31.78M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)694.76K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.88

Revenue GrowthN/A

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees28

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength42

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.06

Shares Outstanding88,822,240

10 Day Avg. Volume660,156

30 Day Avg. Volume694,763

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.12

Price to Book (P/B)9.14

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-3.03

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$3.88

Price Target Upside977.78% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering4

Oncolytics Biotech Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOncolytics Biotech Inc., a development-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of pharmaceutical products for the treatment of cancer. Its lead product is pelareorep, an intravenously delivered immunotherapeutic agent for the treatment of solid tumors and hematological malignancies. Oncolytics Biotech Inc. has a co-development agreement with Merck KGaA and Pfizer Inc. to co-develop pelareorep in combination with paclitaxel and avelumab, a human anti-PD-L1 antibody for the treatment of hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor 2-negative metastatic breast cancer; and PrECOG LLC. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Oncolytics Biotech Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -30.77%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted significant progress in clinical trials, especially in breast and pancreatic cancers, and a solid financial position with new capital access. However, the ongoing search for a new CEO and a decrease in R&D spending present challenges. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic with key strategic advancements underway.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Progress in Breast Cancer Trials

Two randomized Phase 2 studies showed that pelareorep-based combination therapy substantially outperformed standard care in HR-positive/HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer, with a near doubling of median progression-free survival and two-year survival rate.

Pancreatic Cancer Trial Enrollment

Enrollment for the GOBLET Cohort 5 pancreatic cancer study, funded by a $5 million PanCAN grant, is ongoing with more than half of the Stage 1 patients enrolled.

Financial Runway and Share Purchase Agreement

The company reported $15.3 million in cash and a $20 million share purchase agreement with Alumni Capital, providing financial runway through key milestones and the third quarter of 2025.

Anal Carcinoma Trial Expansion

The GOBLET Cohort 4, investigating pelareorep and atezolizumab in relapsed anal carcinoma, showed a 33% objective response rate, leading to an expansion for Stage 2 enrollment.

Negative Updates

Ongoing CEO Search

The company is still in the process of searching for a new CEO to provide leadership and strategic decision-making.

Decrease in R&D Expenses

Research and development expenses decreased from $5.7 million in Q1 2024 to $4.1 million in Q1 2025 due to reduced manufacturing and clinical trial costs, although partially offset by increased personnel-related expenses.

Net Loss for the Quarter

The company reported a net loss of $6.7 million for the quarter, slightly lower than the $6.9 million loss in Q1 2024.

Company Guidance

During the recent Oncolytics Biotech conference call, several key metrics and strategic updates were shared. The company reported a cash and cash equivalents position of $15.3 million as of March 31, 2025, with a net cash usage of $6.5 million for operating activities in the quarter. Research and development expenses were $4.1 million, a decrease from $5.7 million in the same quarter of the previous year, attributed to lower manufacturing and clinical trial costs. The net loss for the quarter was $6.7 million, equivalent to $0.08 per share. Oncolytics also announced a $20 million share purchase agreement with Alumni Capital, providing additional financial flexibility. Clinically, the company highlighted ongoing trials of pelareorep, particularly in breast and pancreatic cancer, with promising data shared at various medical conferences. The GOBLET Cohort 5 study, supported by a $5 million PanCAN grant, is advancing with more than half of the necessary participants enrolled. The company is also actively advancing its CEO search and exploring multiple business development opportunities.

Oncolytics Biotech Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Oncolytics Biotech's financial health is challenged by a lack of revenue, substantial operational losses, and reliance on external financing. The persistent negative cash flows and declining equity raise concerns about sustainability and investor confidence. Strategic shifts may be necessary to improve financial outcomes.

Income Statement

Negative

Oncolytics Biotech has consistently reported zero revenue, reflecting the challenges of monetization in biotechnology. The company experiences persistent net and gross losses, with EBIT and EBITDA margins heavily negative, indicating substantial operational expenditures without offsetting income. Revenue growth is non-existent, which hinders overall financial health.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet reveals significant financial strain, with a declining stockholders' equity and high liabilities relative to assets. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively manageable due to low absolute debt levels. However, the equity ratio has deteriorated, reflecting increased financial leverage and potential solvency risks.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash flow analysis shows negative free cash flow, indicating a reliance on external financing, which could pose risks as investor sentiment fluctuates. Operating cash flow is consistently negative, underscoring the need for revenue generation. The cash flow to net income ratios are unfavorable due to persistent losses.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Gross Profit
0.00	-403.00K	-392.00K	-452.06K	-446.19K
	EBIT
-34.98M	-33.79M	-28.57M	-26.23M	-25.46M
	EBITDA
-34.88M	-33.71M	-26.83M	-25.80M	-25.37M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-31.71M	-27.75M	-24.84M	-26.30M	-19.55M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
15.94M	34.91M	32.14M	41.26M	31.22M
	Total Assets
20.19M	38.82M	37.33M	45.88M	34.35M
	Total Debt
1.06M	423.00K	373.00K	654.75K	402.06K
	Net Debt
-14.88M	-34.49M	-11.29M	-40.61M	-30.82M
	Total Liabilities
14.20M	11.26M	10.83M	9.78M	9.59M
	Stockholders Equity
5.98M	27.56M	26.50M	36.10M	24.75M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-27.20M	-28.46M	-23.41M	-22.72M	-22.10M
	Operating Cash Flow
-26.97M	-28.45M	-23.36M	-22.43M	-22.07M
	Investing Cash Flow
-239.00K	20.22M	-20.40M	-285.95K	-29.30K
	Financing Cash Flow
6.64M	31.99M	12.21M	33.02M	39.77M

Oncolytics Biotech Risk Analysis

Oncolytics Biotech disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oncolytics Biotech reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

There is substantial doubt that we can remain a going concern over the next twelve months. Q4, 2024

We may not achieve our projected development milestones in the time frames we announce and expect. Q4, 2024

Our success depends on our ability to obtain and maintain protection for our intellectual property and our proprietary technologies and to avoid infringing the rights of others. Q4, 2024

Oncolytics Biotech Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (54)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ONCY		$31.78M	―	-211.24%	―	―	―
COV	77 Outperform	C$64.98M	16.84	14.51%	―	28.97%	―
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.31B	3.29	-45.39%	2.79%	16.77%	-0.07%
MDNA	53 Neutral	C$71.18M	―	-149.09%	―	―	-67.03%
BCT	43 Neutral	C$26.92M	―	-478.64%	―	―	56.78%
SVA	33 Underperform	C$55.84M	―	248.46%	―	―	32.71%
HBP	33 Underperform	C$68.22M	―	685.26%	―	―	-50.29%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ONCY

Oncolytics Biotech

0.36

-0.66

-64.71%

TSE:MDNA

Medicenna Therapeutics Corp

0.91

-1.42

-60.94%

TSE:BCT

BriaCell Therapeutics

4.71

-25.89

-84.61%

TSE:COV

Covalon Technologies

2.37

0.37

18.50%

TSE:HBP

Helix BioPharma

0.92

-0.16

-14.81%

TSE:SVA

Sernova

0.17

-0.13

-43.33%

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.