Want to see ONB full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Old National Bancorp Capital
(NASDAQ:ONB)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$31.00
â–²(17.03% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
ONB scores well primarily on improving financial performance and a very positive earnings call featuring raised growth guidance, record efficiency, strong profitability, and continued capital returns. Technicals add support with an uptrend across key moving averages and positive momentum. Valuation is reasonable (P/E ~11.7 with a ~2.1% yield), though balance-sheet leverage trending higher and cyclical sensitivity temper the score.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, high cash conversion (FCF ~96% of net income and nearly $1B TTM) supports durable capital returns (dividends, buybacks) and funds organic growth without relying on volatile external financing, improving resilience across 2–6 month cycles and credit stress periods.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Debt rising toward parity with equity reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to credit shocks. If credit costs increase or growth slows, higher leverage can restrict capital deployment, constrain buybacks/dividends, and intensify earnings volatility over a multi-month horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, high cash conversion (FCF ~96% of net income and nearly $1B TTM) supports durable capital returns (dividends, buybacks) and funds organic growth without relying on volatile external financing, improving resilience across 2–6 month cycles and credit stress periods.
Read all positive factors
Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.19B
Dividend Yield2.14%
Average Volume (3M)4.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.7
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth27.70%
EPS Growth32.69%
CountryUS
Employees4,971
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.28
Shares Outstanding382,570,000
10 Day Avg. Volume5,618,159
30 Day Avg. Volume4,790,367
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.90
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)2.33
P/FCF Ratio13.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.88Price Target Upside12.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.91B
Old National Bancorp Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Old National Bancorp functions as the parent company for Old National Bank, furnishing a wide array of financial services to both individual and commercial clients throughout the United States. Its product portfolio encompasses various deposit acc...
How the Company Makes Money
null...
Old National Bancorp Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial story: record profitability and efficiency, robust organic loan growth and a record commercial pipeline, broad-based fee income strength, improving credit metrics, and active capital returns. Headwinds were relatively modest and largely technical or temporary (sub debt impact on NIM, one-time merger and market-value items, seasonal retail deposit outflows, and a slightly lower mortgage pipeline). Management raised loan growth and fee income guidance while keeping NII guidance unchanged, signaling confidence in execution and balance sheet positioning.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Financial Performance
Reported record GAAP and adjusted results with GAAP and adjusted EPS of $0.65; management called it an "exceptional" quarter driven by profitability and operational execution.
Negative Updates
Margin Headwinds During the Quarter
NIM was modestly impacted (approximately 2 basis points) by the full-quarter effect of sub debt issuance in late January and by lower SOFR rates during the quarter; management noted this offset and expects potential improvement later in the year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Financial Performance
Reported record GAAP and adjusted results with GAAP and adjusted EPS of $0.65; management called it an "exceptional" quarter driven by profitability and operational execution.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026 calls for full-year loan growth of 6%–8% (company saw end‑of‑period loans +$1.0B or ~8% annualized and total loans +8.3% annualized in 2Q), NII guidance unchanged (management expects NIM/NII to improve in the back half of the year after a 2 bp 2Q headwind from sub‑debt and lower SOFR), noninterest income guidance raised (adjusted noninterest income was $140M in 2Q), and unchanged expense, credit and tax outlooks; the company still expects 15%+ EPS growth for the year (adjusted EPS was $0.65 in 2Q), peer‑leading profitability (adjusted ROTACE ~20%, adjusted ROA 1.39%), record adjusted efficiency ratio ~45.2%, CET1 >11% (11.09%), tangible book value per share +14% YoY, return of $163M of capital in 2Q (repurchased $107M / 4.4M shares with $277M remaining authorization), a $5.6B commercial pipeline (up 17% YoY) and plans to fully utilize buybacks opportunistically through Feb‑2027.Old National Bancorp Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.03B | 3.71B | 2.96B | 2.54B | 1.85B | 852.87M |
| Gross Profit | 2.69B | 2.36B | 1.77B | 1.78B | 1.58B | 840.24M |
| EBITDA | 1.29B | 977.98M | 746.07M | 816.56M | 607.03M | 377.47M |
| Net Income | 886.28M | 669.26M | 539.19M | 581.99M | 428.29M | 277.54M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 74.19B | 72.15B | 53.55B | 49.09B | 46.76B | 24.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.33B | 2.28B | 8.69B | 7.89B | 7.50B | 8.20B |
| Total Debt | 8.42B | 7.45B | 5.41B | 5.33B | 5.59B | 2.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 65.61B | 63.66B | 47.21B | 43.53B | 41.63B | 21.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.58B | 8.49B | 6.34B | 5.56B | 5.13B | 3.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 979.48M | 637.41M | 592.01M | 477.97M | 776.52M | 281.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 986.76M | 681.47M | 622.28M | 516.34M | 814.42M | 330.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.41B | -1.83B | -1.37B | -1.82B | -1.69B | -1.43B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.44B | 1.75B | 802.59M | 1.75B | 777.48M | 1.33B |
Old National Bancorp Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
26.49
Price Trends
25.53
Positive
24.23
Positive
23.29
Positive
Market Momentum
0.36
Positive
59.85
Neutral
82.07
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 26.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.56, above the 50-day MA of 25.53, and above the 200-day MA of 23.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.07 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ONB.
Old National Bancorp Capital Risk Analysis
Old National Bancorp Capital disclosed 82 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old National Bancorp Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Old National Bancorp Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $10.19B | 11.68 | 10.46% | 2.15% | 27.70% | 32.69% | |
78 Outperform | $10.76B | 12.63 | 12.33% | 1.32% | 5.67% | 17.55% | |
78 Outperform | $11.19B | 11.82 | 15.44% | 1.75% | 3.80% | 43.71% | |
77 Outperform | $11.07B | 12.06 | 12.17% | 1.20% | 28.55% | 37.78% | |
71 Outperform | $10.17B | 8.86 | 16.14% | 2.60% | 3.90% | 43.99% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
27.00
6.78
33.55%
BPOP
Popular
177.52
65.83
58.94%
UMBF
UMB Financial
146.81
38.35
35.36%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
161.44
38.30
31.10%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
71.70
21.79
43.66%
Old National Bancorp Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Old National Bancorp Highlights Q2 2026 Financial Strength
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Old National Bancorp released an investor presentation outlining its second-quarter 2026 investment thesis and financial profile for use in meetings with investors and analysts. The materials highlight adjusted profitability met...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Old National Shareholders Back 2026 Equity and Governance
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Old National Bancorp held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, with approximately 92.5% of eligible common shares represented, and shareholders elected all nominated directors to one-year terms expiring at the 2027 annual meet...
Dividends
Old National Bancorp Declares Quarterly Common and Preferred Dividends
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Old National Bancorp announced that its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.145 per share on its common stock, payable June 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of June 5, 2026. The decision underscores the bank holdi...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Old National Bancorp Highlights Strong Q1 2026 Performance
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 6, 2026, Old National Bancorp executives prepared to use a new first-quarter 2026 investor presentation in meetings with investors and analysts, outlining the bank’s financial profile and strategy. The materials highlight the company&...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.