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Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB)
NASDAQ:ONB
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Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) AI Stock Analysis

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ONB

Old National Bancorp Capital

(NASDAQ:ONB)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$24.50
â–²(7.36% Upside)
Old National Bancorp Capital's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's stable financial metrics and successful integration of Bremer Bank are key strengths. Technical indicators suggest a neutral trend, while valuation metrics are reasonable. The recent share settlement further bolsters the company's financial position, supporting its growth prospects.

Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Old National Bancorp Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOld National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides various financial services to individual and commercial customers in the United States. It accepts deposit accounts, including noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing checking, negotiable order of withdrawal, savings and money market, and time deposits; and offers loans, such as home equity lines of credit, residential real estate loans, consumer loans, commercial loans, commercial real estate loans, letters of credit, and lease financing. The company also provides debit and automated teller machine cards, telephone access, online banking, and other electronic and mobile banking services; cash management, private banking, brokerage, trust, investment advisory, and other traditional banking services; wealth management, investment, and foreign currency services; and treasury management, merchant, health savings, and capital markets services, as well as community development lending and equity investment solutions. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a total of 162 banking centers located primarily in the states of Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Old National Bancorp was founded in 1834 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.
How the Company Makes MoneyOld National Bancorp generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and fees from a variety of banking services. The company's key revenue streams include net interest income, which is derived from the interest earned on loans issued to customers minus the interest paid on deposits. Additionally, ONB earns non-interest income through service fees, wealth management services, and transaction fees associated with its banking operations. Significant partnerships with local businesses and community organizations also contribute to its customer base, enhancing its ability to cross-sell products and services, ultimately driving earnings growth.

Old National Bancorp Capital Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call demonstrated strong performance in key financial metrics, successful integration of the Bremer partnership, and a robust capital position. These were slightly offset by cautious loan growth outlook due to competitive pressures and economic uncertainties.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Exceeded Earnings Guidance
Old National reported GAAP 2Q earnings per share of $0.34, with adjusted earnings of $0.53, representing an 18% increase over the prior quarter and 15% year over year.
Successful Bremer Partnership
The Bremer Bank partnership closed ahead of schedule, adding to earnings momentum. Integration is on track with a systems conversion planned for mid-October.
Strong Capital Position
CET1 ratio was 10.74%, approximately 50 basis points higher than expected. Tangible book value increased by 14% year over year.
Loan and Deposit Growth
Period-end loans increased by $11.5 billion, and total deposits grew by $13.3 billion, with core deposits up nearly 1% annualized.
Controlled Expenses and Positive Operating Leverage
Run rate expenses remained well controlled, resulting in positive operating leverage year over year.
Negative Updates
Cautious Loan Growth Outlook
Loan growth guidance was adjusted to the lower end of the range due to competitive pressures, particularly in the commercial real estate market.
Increase in Non-Performing Assets (NPAs)
Sequential increase in NPAs primarily due to the Bremer acquisition, though NPAs as a percentage of the balance sheet decreased.
Potential Economic Uncertainties
Uncertainties surrounding global economic conditions and trade could impact growth and rates, widening the range of possible outcomes for the year.
Company Guidance
During Old National Bancorp's second quarter 2025 earnings call, CEO Jim Ryan highlighted the company's strong performance, meeting or exceeding guidance across various metrics. Key achievements included an 18% increase in adjusted earnings per share to $0.53, a 14% year-over-year rise in tangible book value, and a CET1 capital ratio of 10.74%. The company successfully integrated Bremer Bank ahead of schedule, which contributed to growth in loans and deposits and improved the CET1 ratio by 50 basis points. Net charge-offs were 24 basis points, and the allowance for credit losses improved by 8 basis points to 1.24%. Total deposits increased by $13.3 billion, with core deposits up just under 1% annualized, excluding Bremer. The loan deposit ratio stood at 88%, and the company demonstrated disciplined expense management, resulting in positive operating leverage. Looking ahead, Old National remains cautious due to competitive pressures but optimistic about continued growth and maintaining strong credit quality.

Old National Bancorp Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Old National Bancorp Capital shows steady revenue growth, strong profitability margins, and a stable balance sheet. Despite a slight decline in operational efficiency metrics, the company effectively converts income to cash. Attention to debt levels and operational efficiency is needed for maintaining long-term financial health.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Old National Bancorp Capital has demonstrated steady revenue growth with a TTM revenue increase of approximately 1.7% compared to the previous year. The net profit margin stands strong at 18.74%, indicating efficient cost management. However, a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins from previous periods suggests potential pressures on operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a healthy equity ratio of 12.13%, reflecting a solid capital base. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable at 0.83, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity is robust at 8.63%, demonstrating effective utilization of shareholders' equity. While overall stability is evident, the high total liabilities may pose future risks if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Free cash flow has shown a positive growth of 1.12% year over year, indicating good cash generation from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is at 1.11, suggesting a healthy conversion of net income into cash. However, the need for significant investing cash flows for business expansion could impact liquidity.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.96B2.54B1.85B852.87M902.58M
Gross Profit1.77B1.78B1.58B840.24M792.49M
EBITDA746.07M816.56M607.03M377.47M298.56M
Net Income539.19M581.99M428.29M277.54M226.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets53.55B49.09B46.76B24.45B22.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments8.69B7.89B7.50B8.20B6.56B
Total Debt5.41B5.33B5.59B2.65B2.76B
Total Liabilities47.21B43.53B41.63B21.44B19.99B
Stockholders Equity6.34B5.56B5.13B3.01B2.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow592.01M477.97M776.52M281.69M188.95M
Operating Cash Flow622.28M516.34M814.42M330.38M219.82M
Investing Cash Flow-1.37B-1.82B-1.69B-1.43B-2.14B
Financing Cash Flow802.59M1.75B777.48M1.33B2.24B

Old National Bancorp Capital Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price22.82
Price Trends
50DMA
21.91
Positive
100DMA
21.30
Positive
200DMA
21.51
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.39
Negative
RSI
60.65
Neutral
STOCH
70.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.96, above the 50-day MA of 21.91, and above the 200-day MA of 21.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ONB.

Old National Bancorp Capital Risk Analysis

Old National Bancorp Capital disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old National Bancorp Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Old National Bancorp Capital Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$9.36B13.2211.60%1.40%4.74%10.10%
78
Outperform
$8.94B13.558.00%2.45%15.94%-0.47%
78
Outperform
$8.59B12.3312.73%2.17%6.27%45.08%
78
Outperform
$9.39B14.1910.05%1.28%30.40%12.40%
77
Outperform
$9.07B13.5811.07%4.12%-8.62%15.37%
74
Outperform
$8.58B10.6013.23%3.08%2.64%32.07%
68
Neutral
$17.81B11.8710.24%3.74%9.75%1.30%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
22.82
4.68
25.80%
CMA
Comerica
68.86
16.03
30.34%
BPOP
Popular
125.34
30.70
32.44%
UMBF
UMB Financial
124.47
24.22
24.16%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
139.53
35.49
34.11%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
56.52
12.42
28.16%

Old National Bancorp Capital Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Old National Bancorp Highlights Q2 2025 Investment Strategy
Neutral
Aug 15, 2025

Old National Bancorp released its investment thesis for the second quarter of 2025, emphasizing its strategic goals and financial metrics. The company highlighted its focus on maintaining a strong credit culture, a diversified loan portfolio, and a low-cost deposit base to drive long-term shareholder value. The release also discussed the implications of its recent merger with Bremer Financial Corporation, noting potential cost savings and synergies, while addressing risks such as competition, regulatory changes, and economic conditions that could impact its operations.

Dividends
Old National Bancorp Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Neutral
Aug 15, 2025

On August 13, 2025, Old National Bancorp announced its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share on its common stock, payable on September 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of September 5, 2025. Additionally, a quarterly cash dividend of $17.50 per share on its 7.0% Fixed Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A and C, was declared, payable on November 20, 2025, to shareholders of record as of November 5, 2025.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Old National Bancorp Appoints Timothy Burke as President
Neutral
Jul 22, 2025

On July 22, 2025, Old National Bancorp announced the appointment of Timothy M. Burke, Jr. as President and Chief Operating Officer, succeeding the retired Mark G. Sander. Burke, who brings nearly 30 years of banking experience, previously held significant roles at KeyBank, including Executive Vice President and Head of the Central Region. His appointment is accompanied by a comprehensive compensation package, including a base salary, bonuses, equity awards, and severance benefits, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on leadership continuity and operational excellence.

Private Placements and Financing
Old National Bancorp Completes Share Settlement, Raises $443M
Positive
May 28, 2025

Old National Bancorp entered into an underwriting agreement and forward sale agreements on November 25, 2024, involving the sale of 19,047,619 shares of common stock, with Citigroup Global Markets Inc. acting as the representative for the underwriters. The company also granted an option to purchase an additional 2,857,143 shares, which was exercised in full on the same day. On May 23, 2025, Old National Bancorp settled these agreements by delivering a total of 21,904,762 shares, resulting in net proceeds of approximately $443.2 million.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Old National Bancorp Capital’s 2025 Shareholder Meeting Outcomes
Neutral
May 19, 2025

On May 14, 2025, Old National Bancorp Capital held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where shareholders voted on three key matters. All nominees for the Board of Directors were elected for a one-year term, the advisory proposal on executive compensation was approved, and Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025