Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB)
NASDAQ:ONB
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Old National Bancorp Capital
(NASDAQ:ONB)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$27.00
â–²(12.69% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/30/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (strong revenue scale-up and high-quality cash flow) and supportive earnings-call guidance (reaffirmed targets, strong efficiency, and capital returns). Valuation is a notable positive (low P/E plus dividend), while technicals are constructive but not strongly momentum-driven.
Positive Factors
Sustained Loan Growth
Robust, diversified loan origination and a $5.5B pipeline indicate durable core revenue expansion. Sustained loan growth, especially C&I strength, supports long-term net interest income, franchise share gains, and provides a multi-quarter runway for earning-asset re-pricing and scale benefits.
Negative Factors
Rising Absolute Debt
A step-up in absolute debt increases leverage and interest obligations, potentially constraining capital flexibility if revenue or margins weaken. Higher debt levels can elevate funding costs and limit capacity for opportunistic investment or further capital returns during adverse macro scenarios.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Loan Growth
Robust, diversified loan origination and a $5.5B pipeline indicate durable core revenue expansion. Sustained loan growth, especially C&I strength, supports long-term net interest income, franchise share gains, and provides a multi-quarter runway for earning-asset re-pricing and scale benefits.
Read all positive factors
Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.19B
Dividend Yield2.43%
Average Volume (3M)3.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.1
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth33.41%
EPS Growth11.83%
CountryUS
Employees4,028
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.96
Shares Outstanding386,373,000
10 Day Avg. Volume3,737,931
30 Day Avg. Volume3,166,132
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.99
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)2.33
P/FCF Ratio13.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.88Price Target Upside16.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.91B
Old National Bancorp Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides various financial services to individual and commercial customers in the United States. It accepts deposit accounts, including noninterest-bearing demand...
How the Company Makes Money
ONB primarily generates earnings through a traditional bank revenue model: (1) Net interest income—interest earned on loans and other interest-earning assets minus interest paid on deposits and other funding sources. This spread-based income is ty...
Old National Bancorp Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum: robust loan growth (8% annualized), a record $5.5B pipeline (+~14% YoY), improving efficiency (adjusted efficiency ratio ~46%), solid fee performance ($122M) and peer-leading profitability with tangible book value up ~11% YoY. Management returned capital ($151M) while maintaining CET1 >11% and reiterated 4%–6% loan growth guidance and 15%+ EPS growth for the year. Headwinds included near-term NII/NIM pressure from seasonality, sub-debt issuance and mix impacts (≈19 bps negative), heightened deposit competition in some markets, transition-related criticized loans (+$113M) from the Bremer acquisition, and potential expense increases related to accelerated hiring and investments. Overall, positives (growth, profitability, capital returns, efficiency, and stable credit) materially outweighed the manageable near-term headwinds and sensitivities tied to rates and competition.Positive Updates
Earnings and Profitability
GAAP EPS $0.59; adjusted EPS $0.61 (ex. $0.02 merger-related and a noncash pension item). Management reiterated full-year outlook targeting 15%+ EPS growth and emphasized top-decile profitability (ROA and tangible common equity returns).
Negative Updates
Net Interest Income and Margin Headwinds
Q1 experienced NII pressure from typical seasonality, two fewer business days and a late-January subordinated debt issuance. Management cited a ~19 basis point negative impact from rate/volume mix in the quarter and noted first-quarter NII was weaker than some expected.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Earnings and Profitability
GAAP EPS $0.59; adjusted EPS $0.61 (ex. $0.02 merger-related and a noncash pension item). Management reiterated full-year outlook targeting 15%+ EPS growth and emphasized top-decile profitability (ROA and tangible common equity returns).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and said the quarter supports trending to the high end of targets: full‑year loan growth 4–6% (pipeline $5.5B, up ~14% from year‑end; loans +8% annualized last quarter; C&I +16.9% annualized), NII guidance unchanged and NIM expected stable-to-improving (spot NIM ~3.55%, ~4 bp day‑count benefit next quarter), fee income leaning to the high end (1Q adjusted noninterest income $122M), expense guidance unchanged despite 1Q adjusted noninterest expense of $354M and a record adjusted efficiency ratio ~46%, EPS growth >15% (1Q GAAP EPS $0.59; adjusted $0.61) with positive operating leverage, stable credit (total NCOs 26 bps; 19 bps ex‑PCD; allowance 122 bps), strong liquidity/capital (loan‑to‑deposit 89%, CET1 >11%, TBVPS +6% linked‑quarter annualized / +11% YoY), capital returned $151M in 1Q with 3.9M shares repurchased (6.1M last 12 months) and $383M remaining authorization, ~ $8B of fixed‑rate assets repricing in 12 months and ~$2.4B of expected investment portfolio cash flow — all cited as supporting the outlook.Old National Bancorp Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.99B | 3.71B | 2.96B | 2.54B | 1.85B | 852.87M |
| Gross Profit | 2.57B | 2.36B | 1.77B | 1.78B | 1.58B | 840.24M |
| EBITDA | 1.08B | 977.98M | 746.07M | 816.56M | 607.03M | 377.47M |
| Net Income | 758.27M | 669.26M | 539.19M | 581.99M | 428.29M | 277.54M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 73.00B | 72.15B | 53.55B | 49.09B | 46.76B | 24.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.37B | 2.28B | 8.69B | 7.89B | 7.50B | 8.20B |
| Total Debt | 7.82B | 7.45B | 5.41B | 5.33B | 5.59B | 2.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 64.49B | 63.66B | 47.21B | 43.53B | 41.63B | 21.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.51B | 8.49B | 6.34B | 5.56B | 5.13B | 3.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 750.45M | 637.41M | 592.01M | 477.97M | 776.52M | 281.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 779.40M | 681.47M | 622.28M | 516.34M | 814.42M | 330.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.65B | -1.83B | -1.37B | -1.82B | -1.69B | -1.43B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.38B | 1.75B | 802.59M | 1.75B | 777.48M | 1.33B |
Old National Bancorp Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
23.96
Price Trends
23.10
Positive
22.98
Positive
22.15
Positive
Market Momentum
0.31
Negative
67.05
Neutral
76.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.53, above the 50-day MA of 23.10, and above the 200-day MA of 22.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ONB.
Old National Bancorp Capital Risk Analysis
Old National Bancorp Capital disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old National Bancorp Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Old National Bancorp Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $9.62B | 8.86 | 14.64% | 2.31% | 3.21% | 39.91% | |
78 Outperform | $9.83B | 8.21 | 11.67% | 1.37% | 41.57% | 41.57% | |
78 Outperform | $10.04B | 10.27 | 11.93% | 1.40% | 6.69% | 17.78% | |
77 Outperform | $9.19B | 9.12 | 9.07% | 2.43% | 33.41% | 11.83% | |
73 Outperform | $9.13B | 9.08 | 13.77% | 2.97% | -1.12% | 25.68% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
23.78
3.21
15.59%
BPOP
Popular
148.04
51.43
53.24%
UMBF
UMB Financial
129.41
30.77
31.20%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
148.95
36.97
33.01%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
62.11
18.19
41.42%
Old National Bancorp Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividends
Old National Bancorp Expands Capital Returns, Adjusts Governance
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 17, 2026, four Old National Bancorp directors — Ellen A. Rudnick, Rebecca S. Skillman, Stephen C. Van Arsdell and Austin M. Ramirez — notified the company they intend to retire from the board at the end of their terms at th...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Old National Bancorp Highlights Q4 2025 Investor Presentation
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Old National Bancorp’s executive officers prepared an investor presentation outlining a fourth-quarter 2025 investment thesis for use in upcoming meetings with investors and analysts. The materials underscore the bank...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.