Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $9.29B
• Dividend Yield: 2.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: 20.72%
• EPS Growth: 3.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,028
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.62
• Shares Outstanding: 390,773,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,790,302
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,459,321
• PEG Ratio: -0.93
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.27
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.70
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.51
• 1Y Price Target: $27.25
• Price Target Upside: 11.68% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(6.56% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (revenue growth, strong free-cash-flow growth, and a stable balance sheet) and a notably positive earnings outlook (loan growth, NII/NIM support, cost saves, strong capital/credit). Technicals are supportive but not strong enough to materially lift the score, while valuation remains reasonable with a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Free cash flow strength

Sustained, large free cash flow expansion and near‑parity FCF-to-net income provide durable internal funding for loan growth, dividends and buybacks. Strong FCF enhances capital flexibility through economic cycles and supports reinvestment without excessive external funding.

Capital and tangible book value growth

Rising tangible book and rebuilt CET1 above regulatory thresholds indicate durable capital generation. That strengthens the bank’s ability to support organic loan growth, absorb losses, execute buybacks/dividends and pursue strategic initiatives with lower dilution risk over the medium term.

Loan growth and repricing tailwinds

Consistent production, a growing pipeline and explicit repricing headroom (new‑money loan yields and securities cash flow) support structurally higher net interest income and margin resilience. This underpins medium‑term revenue growth and profit compounding.

Negative Factors

Merger costs and incomplete synergies

Significant merger charges have weighed on GAAP results and tangible capital; only ~28% of anticipated Bremer cost saves were realized in 4Q, so operating leverage and full cost benefits remain contingent on future execution, delaying merger economics realization.

Reserve coverage modestly reduced

A small decline in reserve coverage while loans accelerate erodes the incremental loss absorption buffer. If credit conditions deteriorate or charge-offs rise, reduced coverage could require quicker provision rebuilds, pressuring earnings and capital over the medium term.

Cash conversion quality

Despite strong headline FCF growth, a low operating‑cash‑flow to net‑income ratio signals weaker earnings-to-cash conversion. That raises concerns about earnings quality and could limit free cash available for discretionary capital returns under stress or if nonrecurring cash items reverse.

Old National Bancorp Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides various financial services to individual and commercial customers in the United States. It accepts deposit accounts, including noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing checking, negotiable order of withdrawal, savings and money market, and time deposits; and offers loans, such as home equity lines of credit, residential real estate loans, consumer loans, commercial loans, commercial real estate loans, letters of credit, and lease financing. The company also provides debit and automated teller machine cards, telephone access, online banking, and other electronic and mobile banking services; cash management, private banking, brokerage, trust, investment advisory, and other traditional banking services; wealth management, investment, and foreign currency services; and treasury management, merchant, health savings, and capital markets services, as well as community development lending and equity investment solutions. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a total of 162 banking centers located primarily in the states of Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Old National Bancorp was founded in 1834 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Old National Bancorp generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is earned from the interest on loans and securities minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. The company provides various types of loans, including commercial, consumer, and mortgage loans, which contribute significantly to its interest income. Non-interest income comes from fees and commissions related to services such as wealth management, investment banking, and treasury management. Additionally, Old National Bancorp may form strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and businesses to enhance its service offerings and expand its customer base, further contributing to its revenue. The company's financial performance is also influenced by economic conditions, interest rates, and regulatory factors in the banking industry.

Old National Bancorp Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid fundamentals supported by strong free-cash-flow growth (46.98%) and healthy revenue growth (7.68% TTM). Profitability is stable (net margin 17.53%) but with some pressure from slightly lower EBIT/EBITDA margins, and the balance sheet is steady with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity 0.81) and reasonable ROE (8.28%).

Income Statement

Old National Bancorp Capital shows strong revenue growth with a 7.68% increase in TTM, indicating robust business expansion. The gross profit margin is healthy at 61.60%, though slightly lower than previous years. Net profit margin is stable at 17.53%, reflecting consistent profitability. However, there is a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins compared to prior periods, suggesting increased operational costs or competitive pressures.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.81, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is reasonable at 8.28%, though it has slightly decreased from previous years, suggesting a need for improved efficiency in using equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 11.67%, reflecting a stable capital structure but with room for improvement in asset management.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is strong, with a significant 46.98% growth in free cash flow, highlighting effective cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 1.24%, indicating potential challenges in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 99.11%, demonstrating efficient cash generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.46B	2.96B	2.54B	1.85B	852.87M	902.58M
Gross Profit	2.13B	1.77B	1.78B	1.58B	840.24M	792.49M
EBITDA	840.87M	746.07M	816.56M	607.03M	377.47M	298.56M
Net Income	606.51M	539.19M	581.99M	428.29M	277.54M	226.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	71.21B	53.55B	49.09B	46.76B	24.45B	22.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.93B	8.69B	7.89B	7.50B	8.20B	6.56B
Total Debt	6.77B	5.41B	5.33B	5.59B	2.65B	2.76B
Total Liabilities	62.90B	47.21B	43.53B	41.63B	21.44B	19.99B
Stockholders Equity	8.31B	6.34B	5.56B	5.13B	3.01B	2.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	751.29M	592.01M	477.97M	776.52M	281.69M	188.95M
Operating Cash Flow	758.04M	622.28M	516.34M	814.42M	330.38M	219.82M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.25B	-1.37B	-1.82B	-1.69B	-1.43B	-2.14B
Financing Cash Flow	986.36M	802.59M	1.75B	777.48M	1.33B	2.24B

Old National Bancorp Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.29, above the 50-day MA of 22.59, and above the 200-day MA of 21.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ONB.

Old National Bancorp Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WTFC	79 Outperform	$9.73B	12.74	12.11%	1.40%	3.58%	13.93%
ONB	77 Outperform	$9.29B	13.28	22.83%	2.43%	20.72%	3.63%
UMBF	76 Outperform	$9.47B	13.42	12.59%	1.37%	38.81%	10.38%
BPOP	75 Outperform	$8.77B	10.69	14.05%	2.31%	5.87%	53.36%
ZION	72 Outperform	$8.61B	9.71	13.39%	2.97%	0.12%	27.30%
CMA	70 Outperform	$11.85B	17.55	10.09%	3.21%	-7.07%	31.09%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Old National Bancorp Capital Corporate Events

Old National Bancorp Announces CEO Retirement

On December 3, 2025, Old National Bancorp announced that Jim Sandgren, the Commercial Banking CEO, will retire in April 2026 after nearly 35 years with the company. Sandgren has been pivotal in shaping the bank’s commercial strategy, contributing to its growth into a $71 billion institution. His departure marks the end of a significant era for Old National, with Sandgren’s leadership and community involvement leaving a lasting impact on the company’s culture and operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONB) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old National Bancorp Capital stock, see the ONB Stock Forecast page.

Old National Bancorp Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend

On November 12, 2025, Old National Bancorp announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share on its common stock, payable on December 15, 2025. Additionally, a quarterly cash dividend of $17.50 per share was declared on its 7.0% Fixed Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A and C, payable on February 20, 2026. This decision reflects the company’s commitment to providing returns to its shareholders and maintaining its financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONB) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old National Bancorp Capital stock, see the ONB Stock Forecast page.

Old National Bancorp Highlights Q3 2025 Financial Strategy

Old National Bancorp has released an investor presentation detailing its strategic objectives and financial performance as of the third quarter of 2025. The company emphasizes its focus on maintaining a diversified loan portfolio, strong credit culture, and low-cost deposit base to drive long-term shareholder value. The presentation also highlights the company’s use of non-GAAP financial measures to provide a clearer picture of its operational performance, excluding merger-related charges and other non-core items.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONB) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old National Bancorp Capital stock, see the ONB Stock Forecast page.