Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB)
NASDAQ:ONB
Top Page
Old National Bancorp Capital
(NASDAQ:ONB)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$25.00
â–²(6.66% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
Overall score is driven by solid financial performance and constructive technical momentum, reinforced by a notably upbeat earnings outlook (loan growth, NII/NIM resilience, cost saves, strong capital/credit). Valuation is reasonable and capital-return actions are supportive, while margin/ROE softening and uneven free-cash-flow growth keep the score from being higher.
Positive Factors
Loan Growth & NII Tailwinds
Management projects multi-percent loan growth and explicit repricing tailwinds from new‑money loan yields and securities cash flows. That combination is a durable earnings driver: higher earning assets and favorable new‑money spreads should sustain net interest income and margin expansion over the next several quarters, supporting core bank profitability beyond transient rate swings.
Negative Factors
ROE & Margin Compression
Despite balance sheet growth, declining ROE and compressed margins signal that asset repricing, funding costs or mix shifts are eroding capital efficiency. Persistently lower returns on equity reduce the bank's ability to convert growth into shareholder value and may limit sustainable dividend or buyback cadence absent margin recovery or improved fee income.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Loan Growth & NII Tailwinds
Management projects multi-percent loan growth and explicit repricing tailwinds from new‑money loan yields and securities cash flows. That combination is a durable earnings driver: higher earning assets and favorable new‑money spreads should sustain net interest income and margin expansion over the next several quarters, supporting core bank profitability beyond transient rate swings.
Read all positive factors
Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.20B
Dividend Yield2.43%
Average Volume (3M)3.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.9
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth20.72%
EPS Growth3.63%
CountryUS
Employees4,028
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.62
Shares Outstanding389,673,000
10 Day Avg. Volume3,737,931
30 Day Avg. Volume3,166,132
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.99
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)2.33
P/FCF Ratio13.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.76
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.37
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.78Price Target Upside18.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.91B
Old National Bancorp Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides various financial services to individual and commercial customers in the United States. It accepts deposit accounts, including noninterest-bearing demand...
How the Company Makes Money
ONB primarily generates earnings through a traditional bank revenue model: (1) Net interest income—interest earned on loans and other interest-earning assets minus interest paid on deposits and other funding sources. This spread-based income is ty...
Old National Bancorp Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance for 2025 with record adjusted profitability, meaningful tangible book value growth, improving credit metrics, successful integration of the Bremer partnership and a clear plan for capital returns. Lowlights were limited to merger-related one-time charges, seasonality in deposit flows, a modest reduction in reserve coverage driven by improving criticized/classified loan trends, and the fact that some Bremer cost savings remain to be fully realized. Overall, the positives — including top-tier profitability, capital generation, loan production, and improved credit — materially outweigh the near-term and one-time challenges.Positive Updates
Record Profitability and Efficiency
Fourth quarter adjusted EPS of $0.62 (GAAP EPS $0.55) — up 5% linked quarter and up 27% year-over-year. Adjusted return on average tangible common equity near 20%, adjusted ROA of 1.37%, and a record low adjusted efficiency ratio of 46%.
Negative Updates
Merger-Related Charges and One-Time Costs
Bremer closing absorbed approximately $140 million of merger-related charges year-to-date, which weighed on GAAP results and required adjustments to arrive at adjusted metrics.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Profitability and Efficiency
Fourth quarter adjusted EPS of $0.62 (GAAP EPS $0.55) — up 5% linked quarter and up 27% year-over-year. Adjusted return on average tangible common equity near 20%, adjusted ROA of 1.37%, and a record low adjusted efficiency ratio of 46%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Old National guided that 2026 will feature continued loan growth (Q1 3–5%, full year 4–6%), rising NII and stable-to-improving NIM (Q1 impacted by two fewer days), and assumes two 25‑bp rate cuts, a five‑year Treasury at 3.75% (375 bps) and a total down‑rate deposit beta of ~40% with noninterest‑bearing deposits roughly stable; management expects to fully realize Bremer cost saves in Q1 (≈28% realized in Q4) supporting positive operating leverage and more active share repurchases in 2026, with repricing tailwinds of roughly $5.0B of loan new money (~+70 bps) and $2.9B of securities cash flow (new‑money securities ~94 bps above back book); capital and credit remain strong (CET1 >11%, TCE +20 bps, TBVPS +4% linked quarter / +15% YoY, expected AOCI improvement ~$55M/11% by year‑end; Q4 adjusted EPS $0.62 / GAAP $0.55, adjusted ROA 1.37%, adjusted ROTCE ~20%, adjusted efficiency ratio 46%; Q4 NCOs 27 bps (16 bps ex‑PCD), criticized/classified loans down ~8%, NALs down ~12%, ACL to loans ~124 bps).Old National Bancorp Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.71B | 2.96B | 2.54B | 1.85B | 852.87M |
| Gross Profit | 2.36B | 1.77B | 1.78B | 1.58B | 840.24M |
| EBITDA | 977.98M | 746.07M | 816.56M | 607.03M | 377.47M |
| Net Income | 669.26M | 539.19M | 581.99M | 428.29M | 277.54M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 72.15B | 53.55B | 49.09B | 46.76B | 24.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.83B | 8.69B | 7.89B | 7.50B | 8.20B |
| Total Debt | 7.68B | 5.41B | 5.33B | 5.59B | 2.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 63.66B | 47.21B | 43.53B | 41.63B | 21.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.49B | 6.34B | 5.56B | 5.13B | 3.01B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 637.41M | 592.01M | 477.97M | 776.52M | 281.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 681.47M | 622.28M | 516.34M | 814.42M | 330.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.83B | -1.37B | -1.82B | -1.69B | -1.43B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.75B | 802.59M | 1.75B | 777.48M | 1.33B |
Old National Bancorp Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
23.44
Price Trends
23.20
Positive
22.88
Positive
22.12
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
62.29
Neutral
87.32
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.19, above the 50-day MA of 23.20, and above the 200-day MA of 22.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.32 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ONB.
Old National Bancorp Capital Risk Analysis
Old National Bancorp Capital disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old National Bancorp Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Old National Bancorp Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $9.51B | 8.78 | 13.82% | 2.31% | 5.87% | 53.36% | |
74 Outperform | $9.90B | 10.50 | 11.71% | 1.40% | 3.58% | 13.93% | |
73 Outperform | $9.20B | 12.93 | 8.51% | 2.43% | 20.72% | 3.63% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $9.10B | 9.58 | 13.33% | 2.97% | 0.12% | 27.30% | |
65 Neutral | $9.17B | 12.43 | 9.63% | 1.37% | 38.81% | 10.38% |
* Financial Sector Average
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
23.44
4.45
23.41%
BPOP
Popular
144.61
62.25
75.57%
UMBF
UMB Financial
120.63
31.48
35.32%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
145.51
44.15
43.56%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
61.69
19.32
45.59%
Old National Bancorp Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividends
Old National Bancorp Expands Capital Returns, Adjusts Governance
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
On February 17, 2026, four Old National Bancorp directors — Ellen A. Rudnick, Rebecca S. Skillman, Stephen C. Van Arsdell and Austin M. Ramirez — notified the company they intend to retire from the board at the end of their terms at th...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Old National Bancorp Highlights Q4 2025 Investor Presentation
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Old National Bancorp’s executive officers prepared an investor presentation outlining a fourth-quarter 2025 investment thesis for use in upcoming meetings with investors and analysts. The materials underscore the bank...
Private Placements and Financing
Old National Bancorp Capital Issues Subordinated Notes Offering
Neutral
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Old National Bancorp completed a $450 million issuance of 5.768% fixed-to-floating rate subordinated notes due 2036, sold at a 0.75% underwriting discount for net proceeds of about $446.6 million before expenses, to be used fo...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Old National Bancorp Capital Highlights Fixed Income Investor Presentation
Neutral
Jan 22, 2026
On January 22, 2026, Old National Bancorp released a fixed income investor presentation for use in meetings with investors, analysts and other interested parties, offering summarized information on its consolidated business, operations, financial ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.