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Old National Bancorp (ONB)
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Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) AI Stock Analysis

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ONB

Old National Bancorp Capital

(NASDAQ:ONB)

Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
$26.00
▲(20.09%Upside)
The strongest factors driving Old National Bancorp's stock score are its robust financial performance and successful corporate events, such as the completion of its merger with Bremer Financial. The stock's valuation and technical outlook further support a positive investment thesis.

Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Old National Bancorp Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOld National Bancorp Capital (ONB) is a financial services holding company headquartered in Evansville, Indiana. ONB operates primarily through its subsidiary, Old National Bank, which provides a wide array of financial services including retail and commercial banking, wealth management, and investment services. The company serves individuals, families, and businesses across the Midwest, offering products such as checking and savings accounts, loans, credit cards, and financial advisory services.
How the Company Makes MoneyOld National Bancorp Capital generates revenue through a diversified model encompassing various financial services. Key revenue streams include interest income from loans and credit products offered to consumers and businesses, and non-interest income derived from fees and service charges on deposit accounts, wealth management services, and other banking operations. The company also earns income through its investment portfolio and treasury operations. Significant partnerships and community engagement initiatives help ONB expand its market reach and customer base, contributing to its earnings.

Old National Bancorp Capital Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 22, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -4.42%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance in the second quarter with impressive earnings growth, successful integration of the Bremer partnership, and improved credit metrics. However, challenges such as increased competition in loan growth and ongoing economic uncertainties were noted.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Second Quarter Earnings
Old National reported GAAP Q2 earnings per share of $0.34. Excluding $0.19 of net merger-related expenses, adjusted EPS was $0.53, marking an 18% increase over the prior quarter and a 15% increase year over year.
Successful Bremer Partnership
Closed the partnership with Bremer Bank two months ahead of schedule, contributing to higher than expected capital levels and enabling retention of CRE loans initially slated for sale.
Improved Credit Metrics
Legacy criticized and classified assets reduced by 9%, and allowance for credit losses improved by 8 basis points to 1.24%.
Growth in Core Deposits
Total deposits increased by $13.3 billion, with core deposits ex-brokered up $11.6 billion. Non-interest-bearing deposits represent 25% of core deposits, up 2% from the previous quarter.
Increase in Tangible Book Value
Tangible book value increased by 14% year over year despite the impact of the Bremer partnership.
Negative Updates
Competitive Loan Growth Environment
Loan growth expected at the lower end of the 4% to 6% range due to increased competition, particularly in the commercial real estate market.
Regulatory and Economic Uncertainty
Uncertainties surrounding global economic conditions and trade, as well as a prolonged macroeconomic outlook, may affect growth and rates.
Company Guidance
During Old National Bancorp's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported strong performance, meeting or exceeding all previous guidance metrics. Notably, the allowance for credit losses improved by 8 basis points to 1.24%, and the CET1 ratio was better than expected at 10.74%. The tangible book value increased by 14% year-over-year despite the recent partnership with Bremer Bank, which closed ahead of schedule on May 1st. The integration of Bremer is on track for systems conversion by mid-October. Net charge-offs remained within the expected range, while legacy criticized and classified assets were reduced by 9%. The company highlighted a significant increase in adjusted earnings per share to $0.53, an 18% increase over the prior quarter, with strong contributions from Bremer operations, organic growth in loans and deposits, margin expansion, and well-controlled expenses. Looking ahead, Old National expects continued growth in net interest income and margin, driven by loan growth, Bremer's integration, and favorable repricing dynamics. They project full-year loan growth, excluding Bremer's impact, to be in the 4% to 6% range, but likely toward the lower end due to competition and economic uncertainties.

Old National Bancorp Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Old National Bancorp Capital shows steady revenue growth, strong profitability margins, and a stable balance sheet. Despite a slight decline in operational efficiency metrics, the company effectively converts income to cash. Attention to debt levels and operational efficiency is needed for maintaining long-term financial health.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Old National Bancorp Capital has demonstrated steady revenue growth with a TTM revenue increase of approximately 1.7% compared to the previous year. The net profit margin stands strong at 18.74%, indicating efficient cost management. However, a slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins from previous periods suggests potential pressures on operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a healthy equity ratio of 12.13%, reflecting a solid capital base. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable at 0.83, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity is robust at 8.63%, demonstrating effective utilization of shareholders' equity. While overall stability is evident, the high total liabilities may pose future risks if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Free cash flow has shown a positive growth of 1.12% year over year, indicating good cash generation from operations. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is at 1.11, suggesting a healthy conversion of net income into cash. However, the need for significant investing cash flows for business expansion could impact liquidity.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.96B2.54B1.85B852.87M902.58M
Gross Profit1.77B1.78B1.58B840.24M792.49M
EBITDA746.07M816.56M607.03M377.47M298.56M
Net Income539.19M581.99M428.29M277.54M226.41M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets53.55B49.09B46.76B24.45B22.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments8.69B7.89B7.50B8.20B6.56B
Total Debt5.41B5.33B5.59B2.65B2.76B
Total Liabilities47.21B43.53B41.63B21.44B19.99B
Stockholders Equity6.34B5.56B5.13B3.01B2.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow592.01M477.97M776.52M281.69M188.95M
Operating Cash Flow622.28M516.34M814.42M330.38M219.82M
Investing Cash Flow-1.37B-1.82B-1.69B-1.43B-2.14B
Financing Cash Flow802.59M1.75B777.48M1.33B2.24B

Old National Bancorp Capital Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price21.65
Price Trends
50DMA
21.63
Positive
100DMA
21.05
Positive
200DMA
21.29
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.14
Positive
RSI
44.01
Neutral
STOCH
8.68
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.50, above the 50-day MA of 21.63, and above the 200-day MA of 21.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ONB.

Old National Bancorp Capital Risk Analysis

Old National Bancorp Capital disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old National Bancorp Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Old National Bancorp Capital Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$8.01B12.8520.74%2.59%15.93%-0.47%
79
Outperform
$7.84B11.1012.73%2.36%6.27%45.08%
78
Outperform
$6.82B12.669.57%2.15%-0.77%17.19%
77
Outperform
$8.17B10.1113.28%3.07%2.64%32.56%
73
Outperform
$7.88B10.8914.71%3.10%11.50%220.78%
70
Neutral
$6.45B12.347.02%3.40%3.66%20.33%
68
Neutral
¥758.97B11.027.55%3.20%7.82%14.69%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
21.65
2.21
11.37%
BOKF
Bok Financial
105.33
3.36
3.30%
BPOP
Popular
115.33
16.01
16.12%
PB
Prosperity Bancshares
67.70
-1.86
-2.67%
SNV
Synovus
49.61
4.28
9.44%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
55.38
5.24
10.45%

Old National Bancorp Capital Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Old National Bancorp Appoints Timothy Burke as President
Neutral
Jul 22, 2025

On July 22, 2025, Old National Bancorp announced the appointment of Timothy M. Burke, Jr. as President and Chief Operating Officer, succeeding the retired Mark G. Sander. Burke, who brings nearly 30 years of banking experience, previously held significant roles at KeyBank, including Executive Vice President and Head of the Central Region. His appointment is accompanied by a comprehensive compensation package, including a base salary, bonuses, equity awards, and severance benefits, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on leadership continuity and operational excellence.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONB) stock is a Buy with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old National Bancorp Capital stock, see the ONB Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Old National Bancorp Completes Share Settlement, Raises $443M
Positive
May 28, 2025

Old National Bancorp entered into an underwriting agreement and forward sale agreements on November 25, 2024, involving the sale of 19,047,619 shares of common stock, with Citigroup Global Markets Inc. acting as the representative for the underwriters. The company also granted an option to purchase an additional 2,857,143 shares, which was exercised in full on the same day. On May 23, 2025, Old National Bancorp settled these agreements by delivering a total of 21,904,762 shares, resulting in net proceeds of approximately $443.2 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONB) stock is a Buy with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old National Bancorp Capital stock, see the ONB Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Old National Bancorp Capital’s 2025 Shareholder Meeting Outcomes
Neutral
May 19, 2025

On May 14, 2025, Old National Bancorp Capital held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, where shareholders voted on three key matters. All nominees for the Board of Directors were elected for a one-year term, the advisory proposal on executive compensation was approved, and Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONB) stock is a Buy with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old National Bancorp Capital stock, see the ONB Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Old National Bancorp Highlights Q1 2025 Performance
Neutral
May 15, 2025

Old National Bancorp has released an investor presentation for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting its strategic objectives and financial performance. The company emphasizes the use of non-GAAP financial measures to provide a clearer picture of its operational performance, excluding items that do not pertain to core operations. The release also discusses the potential impacts of its merger with Bremer Financial Corporation, including risks related to integration and financial benefits.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONB) stock is a Buy with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old National Bancorp Capital stock, see the ONB Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Old National Bancorp Declares Quarterly Cash Dividends
Positive
May 14, 2025

On May 14, 2025, Old National Bancorp announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share on its common stock, payable on June 16, 2025, to shareholders recorded by June 5, 2025. Additionally, a quarterly cash dividend of $17.50 per share on its 7.0% Fixed Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A and C, was declared, payable on August 20, 2025, to shareholders recorded by August 5, 2025. These dividends reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to providing shareholder value and may enhance its attractiveness to investors, reinforcing its strong market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONB) stock is a Buy with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old National Bancorp Capital stock, see the ONB Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Old National Completes Merger with Bremer Financial
Positive
May 1, 2025

On May 1, 2025, Old National Bancorp completed its merger with Bremer Financial Corporation, significantly enhancing its market presence and operational scale. This merger, which included the integration of Bremer Bank into Old National Bank, positions Old National among the top 25 U.S. banking companies and increases its Community Growth Plan commitments to $11.1 billion. The merger also sees the addition of Daniel Reardon to the Old National Board of Directors, further strengthening its leadership team.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 23, 2025