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Old National Bancorp (ONB)
:ONB

Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) AI Stock Analysis

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Old National Bancorp Capital

(NASDAQ:ONB)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
Old National Bancorp's strong financial performance, highlighted by revenue growth and a zero-debt position, is bolstered by the successful Bremer Bank merger and positive earnings call. While challenges such as declining net profit margins and economic uncertainties exist, the company's strategic initiatives and reasonable valuation provide a solid foundation for potential growth.

Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Old National Bancorp Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOld National Bancorp Capital (ONB) is a financial services company that operates primarily in the banking sector. It offers a comprehensive range of financial products and services, including retail and commercial banking, wealth management, and mortgage services. With a focus on customer-centric solutions, ONB serves individuals, small businesses, and large corporations, providing personalized banking experiences tailored to the unique needs of its clients.
How the Company Makes MoneyOld National Bancorp Capital generates revenue through various streams, primarily driven by its banking operations. The company earns interest income from loans provided to individuals and businesses, including personal loans, mortgages, and commercial loans. Additionally, ONB generates fee-based income through account maintenance fees, transaction fees, and wealth management services. The bank also benefits from interest earned on its investment portfolio. Key partnerships with financial institutions and technology providers enhance its service offerings, contributing to its revenue growth. Overall, ONB's diversified financial services and strategic partnerships play a crucial role in sustaining its profitability.

Old National Bancorp Capital Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 11.43%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Old National Bancorp delivered strong financial results with better-than-expected earnings, robust deposit and loan growth, and a successful Bremer Bank partnership. However, challenges include economic uncertainties impacting loan forecasts and competitive pressures in the CRE market. Overall, the sentiment is balanced with confidence in strategic initiatives but caution due to external factors.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Better-than-Expected Earnings
Old National Bancorp reported earnings per share of $0.44, with adjusted earnings per share at $0.45, driven by strong loan and deposit growth.
Strong Deposit and Loan Growth
Total deposit growth was up 2.1% annualized, and core deposits excluding brokered deposits increased by 1.7% annualized. End-of-period total loans increased 1.5% annualized from last quarter.
Successful Bremer Bank Partnership
Old National received regulatory approvals for the Bremer Bank partnership, with legal close anticipated on May 1. This partnership enhances their footprint and provides a boost for balance sheet and earnings growth.
Improved Tangible Book Value
Tangible book value per share increased by 5% compared to the previous quarter and by 13% year-over-year.
Strong Capital Position
CET1 ratio increased to 11.62%, up 86 basis points from a year ago, providing significant flexibility for future growth.
Negative Updates
Uncertain Macroeconomic Environment
Global trade and economic uncertainty were incorporated into the allowance for credit loss, reflecting a cautious outlook.
Potential Challenges in Loan Growth
Despite strong pipelines, there is increased uncertainty around loan growth forecasts due to macroeconomic conditions.
Competitive Market Impacting CRE
Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market is increasingly competitive, affecting pull-through rates despite strong pipelines.
Company Guidance
During the Old National Bancorp First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance indicating a positive outlook for the year, despite the challenging economic environment. The company's adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter were $0.45, with net interest income and margin performance in line with expectations. Old National reported a tangible book value per share increase of 5% from the previous quarter and 13% year-over-year, with a strong CET1 ratio of 11.62%. Deposit growth was strong, with total deposits up 2.1% annualized and core deposits ex-brokered up 1.7% annualized. The company maintained a loan-to-deposit ratio of 89% and reported a cumulative total deposit beta of 37%. Moving forward, the company expects continued growth in net interest income and margin, supported by repricing dynamics and the Bremer Bank partnership. The guidance for the second quarter and full year 2025 includes expected full-year loan growth of 4% to 6%, with the Bremer partnership anticipated to close on May 1, providing additional scale and earnings growth.

Old National Bancorp Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Old National Bancorp demonstrates strong revenue growth and operational efficiency with a zero-debt position, highlighting financial robustness. However, declining net profit margins and substantial investing cash outflows suggest areas that need attention to ensure sustained financial health.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Old National Bancorp has shown strong revenue growth, with a significant increase in total revenue from the previous year. The gross profit margin remained stable at 100% due to the nature of the banking industry. However, the net profit margin has slightly declined, pointing towards increased expenses or lower profitability. The EBIT margin is impressive at 96.9%, indicating efficient operational control.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company maintains a solid equity base with a healthy equity ratio of 11.8%, reflecting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is zero, emphasizing a debt-free position, which is a strong positive indicator. Return on equity is reasonable at 8.5%, but there is room for improvement.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Operating cash flow has improved, and free cash flow shows positive growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.15, indicating strong cash earnings. However, the large investing cash outflows could indicate potential risks if not managed well.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.14B1.89B1.84B1.73B810.62M835.37M
Gross Profit
2.22B1.89B1.84B1.73B810.62M835.37M
EBIT
547.13M688.94M832.19M589.92M356.26M276.37M
EBITDA
821.48M754.57M816.56M607.03M383.11M313.75M
Net Income Common Stockholders
563.56M539.19M581.99M428.29M277.54M226.41M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
4.89B7.85B7.14B7.23B7.55B6.56B
Total Assets
20.08B53.55B49.09B46.76B24.45B22.96B
Total Debt
2.09B5.14B5.05B4.57B2.26B2.33B
Net Debt
1.76B3.91B3.87B3.84B1.44B1.74B
Total Liabilities
17.33B47.21B43.53B41.63B21.44B19.99B
Stockholders Equity
2.75B6.34B5.56B5.13B3.01B2.97B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
612.26M592.01M477.97M776.52M281.69M188.95M
Operating Cash Flow
639.85M622.28M516.34M814.42M330.38M219.82M
Investing Cash Flow
-876.38M-1.37B-1.82B-1.69B-1.43B-2.14B
Financing Cash Flow
550.40M802.59M1.75B777.48M1.33B2.24B

Old National Bancorp Capital Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price21.25
Price Trends
50DMA
20.50
Positive
100DMA
21.51
Negative
200DMA
20.72
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.01
Positive
RSI
53.48
Neutral
STOCH
42.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.24, above the 50-day MA of 20.50, and above the 200-day MA of 20.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ONB.

Old National Bancorp Capital Risk Analysis

Old National Bancorp Capital disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old National Bancorp Capital reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Failure to complete the Merger could negatively impact Old National. Q4, 2024

Old National Bancorp Capital Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$7.27B9.6013.06%3.45%4.84%28.90%
PBPB
76
Outperform
$6.67B13.376.83%3.26%9.02%20.88%
74
Outperform
$6.20B11.0710.17%2.34%6.58%26.56%
ONONB
74
Outperform
$7.86B12.369.29%2.63%13.68%-6.57%
SNSNV
71
Outperform
$6.82B13.7710.63%3.12%-1.64%22.50%
68
Neutral
$7.25B10.9212.54%2.57%9.33%43.64%
64
Neutral
$12.85B9.817.59%16985.65%12.30%-7.71%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
21.25
5.60
35.78%
BOKF
Bok Financial
96.46
10.73
12.52%
BPOP
Popular
105.75
23.25
28.18%
PB
Prosperity Bancshares
70.00
13.49
23.87%
SNV
Synovus
49.06
13.70
38.74%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
49.28
9.33
23.35%

Old National Bancorp Capital Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesM&A Transactions
Old National Completes Merger with Bremer Financial
Positive
May 1, 2025

On May 1, 2025, Old National Bancorp completed its merger with Bremer Financial Corporation, significantly enhancing its market presence and operational scale. This merger, which included the integration of Bremer Bank into Old National Bank, positions Old National among the top 25 U.S. banking companies and increases its Community Growth Plan commitments to $11.1 billion. The merger also sees the addition of Daniel Reardon to the Old National Board of Directors, further strengthening its leadership team.

Spark’s Take on ONB Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, ONB is a Outperform.

Old National Bancorp scores well due to its strong financial performance, particularly its revenue growth and zero-debt position. The successful Bremer Bank partnership and robust deposit growth highlighted in the earnings call contribute positively. However, challenges such as declining net profit margins, substantial investing cash outflows, and economic uncertainties slightly offset these strengths.

To see Spark’s full report on ONB stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Old National Bancorp Unveils Q4 2024 Investor Presentation
Neutral
Feb 10, 2025

Old National Bancorp has filed an investor presentation for the fourth quarter of 2024, outlining its investment thesis and operational strategies. Key highlights include forward-looking statements addressing potential risks and opportunities related to its financial performance and strategic initiatives such as mergers and market positioning. The company also emphasizes its use of non-GAAP financial measures to provide a clearer understanding of its operational performance, excluding items that do not pertain to its core business operations.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.