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Popular Inc (BPOP)
NASDAQ:BPOP
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Popular
(NASDAQ:BPOP)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$138.00
â–²(0.96% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance and attractive valuation (low P/E with a solid dividend). Earnings-call guidance supports continued improvement and capital returns, but near-term technicals are mixed and cash-flow quality and funding/credit headwinds temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates a stable business model and effective market strategies, supporting long-term financial health.
Loan Growth
Strong loan growth reflects robust demand and effective lending strategies, contributing to future revenue and market expansion.
Digital Banking Initiatives
Advancements in digital banking enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, positioning the company for sustained growth.
Negative Factors
Credit Metrics Impact
Large commercial loans affecting credit metrics can increase risk exposure and necessitate higher provisions, impacting profitability.
Nonperforming Loan Ratio Increase
An increase in nonperforming loans suggests potential asset quality issues, which could strain future earnings and capital reserves.
Cash Flow Management
Challenges in cash flow management may hinder the company's ability to reinvest and manage liabilities effectively, affecting long-term sustainability.
Popular (BPOP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.90B
Dividend Yield2.31%
Average Volume (3M)466.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.9
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth5.87%
EPS Growth53.36%
CountryUS
Employees9,274
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.38
Shares Outstanding66,674,860
10 Day Avg. Volume702,266
30 Day Avg. Volume466,327
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.80
Price to Book (P/B)1.20
Price to Sales (P/S)1.61
P/FCF Ratio14.60
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.22
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.56
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$153.71Price Target Upside12.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Popular Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionPopular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various retail, mortgage, and commercial banking products and services in Puerto Rico, the United States, and British Virgin Islands. The company provides savings, NOW, money market, and other interest-bearing demand accounts; non-interest bearing demand deposits; and certificates of deposit. It also offers commercial and industrial, commercial multi-family, commercial real estate, and residential mortgage loans; consumer loans, including personal loans, credit cards, automobile loans, home equity lines of credit, and other loans to individual borrowers; construction loans; and lease financing comprising automobile loans/leases. In addition, the company provides investment banking, auto and equipment leasing and financing, broker-dealer, and insurance services; debit cards; and online banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 169 branches; and 616 ATMs in Puerto Rico, 23 ATMs in the Virgin Islands, and 91 ATMs in the United States Mainland. Popular, Inc. was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Hato Rey, Puerto Rico.
How the Company Makes MoneyPopular generates revenue through several key streams, including net interest income from loans and deposits, non-interest income from fees associated with banking services, and investment income. The bank earns interest by lending money at higher rates than it pays on deposits. Non-interest income is derived from service charges, transaction fees, and wealth management services. Additionally, Popular engages in partnerships with various financial institutions and service providers, enhancing its product offerings and customer reach, which contributes to its overall earnings.
Popular Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operating and financial performance for 2025: strong profitability (net income +36% YoY), expanded margins, solid loan growth, improved credit metrics, a robust capital position, and active shareholder returns (buybacks and dividend increase). Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (NII +5%–7%, loan growth 3%–4%) while noting a tempered outlook relative to recent years and several headwinds: deposit outflows (public deposits), expected modest increases in net charge-offs, consumer auto softness, and ongoing technology/investment timing that will lift expenses in 2026. Management emphasized disciplined capital management, continued transformation investments, and confidence in Puerto Rico’s economic tailwinds (including onshoring), but also acknowledged lingering structural and macro risks such as PREPA and affordability. On balance, the highlights—strong earnings, margin expansion, loan growth, improving credit metrics, and sizable capital returns—outweigh the lowlights, though the company expects some moderation and prudent conservatism in 2026.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Improvement in Annual Profitability
Net income for fiscal 2025 of $833 million, up $219 million or 36% year-over-year; fourth-quarter net income of $234 million, up $23 million QoQ, and EPS of $3.53 (increase of $0.38). ROTCE exceeded 14% in Q4 and was 13% for the full year, demonstrating progress toward the 14% objective.
Loan Growth and Net Interest Income Expansion
Total loan growth for 2025 of $2.2 billion (approximately +6% year-over-year); Q4 loan growth of $641 million (BPPR +$497M, Popular Bank +$144M). Net interest income of $658 million in Q4, up $11 million QoQ and NII increased $259 million (11%) for the year. GAAP net interest margin expanded 10 basis points to 3.61% in Q4 (FTE margin +13 bps to 4.03%). 2026 NII guidance: +5% to +7%.
Improved Credit Metrics and Reserve Coverage
Net charge-offs improved to 52 basis points for 2025 (down 16 bps year-over-year). Q4 annualized net charge-offs were 51 bps (vs 60 bps prior quarter); excluding recoveries Q4 ratio was 57 bps. Non-performing loans ratio decreased 3 bps to 1.27%. Allowance for credit losses increased $22 million to $808 million; ACL/loans at 2.05% and ACL/NPLs at 162% (up from 157%).
Strong Capital Position and Shareholder Returns
Common equity Tier 1 ratio ended the year at 15.7%. Tangible book value per share was $82.65, up 21% year-over-year. Repurchased approximately $500 million in common stock during 2025 (about $148 million in Q4) and have repurchased ~$720 million since resuming buybacks in 2024. Quarterly common dividend increased $0.05 to $0.75 per share; further dividend increase anticipated later in the year.
Operational Efficiency and Technology Progress
Total GAAP operating expenses rose ~2.5% for 2025 (below prior 4% guidance) as sustainable efficiency initiatives were executed. Launched commercial cash management platform and a fully digital consumer credit origination platform (approximately $36 million originated since launch). ERP migrated to a modern cloud platform; over 800 colleagues working on transformation projects. 2026 GAAP expense guidance: ~+3%.
Favorable Puerto Rico Economic Trends and Onshoring Momentum
Puerto Rico experienced solid business activity: unemployment stable at 5.7%, consumer/debit+credit card sales up ~5% YoY, record 13.6 million airport passengers (+3% YoY), Q4 hotel demand +11% YoY and total revenue +4%. Onshoring announced investment pipeline cited ~ $2.2 billion in capital with thousands of jobs (e.g., Eli Lilly $1.2B, Amgen $650M), with management expecting additional onshoring announcements in 2026.
Negative Updates
Deposit Outflows and Funding Mix Pressure
Ending deposit balances decreased $323 million in Q4 and average deposits decreased $880 million, largely due to anticipated outflows of Puerto Rico public deposits which fell $662 million in the quarter to $19.4 billion. Management expects public deposits to remain in the $18B–$20B range, and deposit cost pressures remain a key driver of margin guidance.
Moderation in Loan Growth Guidance
After roughly 6% loan growth in recent years, 2026 consolidated loan growth guidance was tempered to 3%–4%, with management calling out expected consumer softness (notably auto) and a desire to prioritize profitable, relationship-driven growth in the U.S. markets.
Higher Expected Net Charge-offs in 2026
2026 net charge-off guidance of 55 to 70 basis points is above the 52 bps recorded in 2025, reflecting management's anticipation of a modest increase in losses (including potential charge-offs from larger commercial relationships) despite improved credit metrics in 2025.
Isolated Commercial Credit Events and NPL Volatility
2025 included several isolated commercial credit relationships that impacted inflows of NPLs and provisions (previous quarter included two unrelated commercial inflows totaling $188 million and a $40 million prior-quarter charge-off). BPPR saw a $5 million increase in NPLs in Q4 (commercial +$8M), and provision activity remains elevated for commercial reserves.
Expense Timing, One-offs and Ongoing Investment Need
Q4 operating expenses decreased QoQ partly due to a partial reversal of the FDIC special assessment; excluding that reversal, Q4 operating expenses were $489 million. Management delayed some 2025 expenditures into 2026, leading to expected ~3% GAAP expense growth in 2026 as investments in people and technology continue and some project-related double-run costs occur around go-lives.
Macro and Structural Risks: PREPA, Affordability and Geographic Concentration
Management cited unresolved risks that could impact performance — PREPA's bankruptcy and Puerto Rico's electricity infrastructure (a potential drag on growth), housing affordability that could affect consumer segments, and geographic concentration risk tied to Puerto Rico which influences capital planning and the need for CET1 buffer/optimization.
Company Guidance
The company guided to modest 2026 improvement while emphasizing capital return and discipline: consolidated loan growth of 3–4%, net interest income up 5–7% (with continued margin expansion from a GAAP NIM of 3.61% / FTE 4.03% and reinvestment of securities), quarterly noninterest income of $160–165M, full‑year GAAP expenses up ~3%, an effective tax rate of 15–17%, and annual net charge‑offs of 55–70 bps; management expects Puerto Rico public deposits to be $18–20B, will maintain a 2–3 year investment portfolio duration (they bought ~$900M of Treasuries at ~3.56% and 2.1‑year duration in Q4), plans continued buybacks (Q4 repurchase ~$148M, ~$281M remaining authorization, ~$500M repurchased in 2025 and ~$720M since resumption) and a likely dividend increase after the $0.75/share quarterly payout, and remains focused on reaching a sustainable ~14% ROTCE (Q4 >14%, 2025 = 13%) while CET1 was 15.7% and tangible book was $82.65.Popular Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability and operating performance (healthy margins; ROE 13.58%) with prudent leverage (debt-to-equity 0.23). The main drag is weaker cash conversion and declining free cash flow growth (operating cash flow to net income 0.01), which reduces confidence in earnings quality.Income Statement
Popular has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.13% and strong profitability metrics. The gross profit margin and net profit margin are healthy at 64.90% and 18.32% respectively, indicating efficient cost management and profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust, reflecting strong operational performance. However, the decline in gross profit margin from 2022 suggests some pressure on cost control.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a solid equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23, indicating prudent leverage management. The return on equity is strong at 13.58%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 8.14%, suggesting a stable financial structure. However, the slight increase in debt levels over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.01, indicating potential challenges in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively healthy at 0.74, suggesting decent cash generation relative to net income. The negative growth in free cash flow needs to be addressed to ensure long-term sustainability.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.25B | 4.19B | 3.76B | 3.24B | 2.64B | 2.49B |
| Gross Profit | 2.73B | 2.54B | 2.44B | 2.85B | 2.67B | 1.96B |
| EBITDA | 1.00B | 856.63M | 737.23M | 1.29B | 1.31B | 683.41M |
| Net Income | 777.08M | 614.21M | 541.34M | 1.10B | 934.89M | 506.62M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 75.07B | 73.05B | 70.76B | 67.64B | 75.10B | 65.93B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.78B | 25.02B | 24.08B | 23.76B | 42.84B | 33.57B |
| Total Debt | 1.39B | 1.31B | 1.24B | 1.58B | 1.34B | 1.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 68.95B | 67.43B | 65.61B | 63.54B | 69.13B | 59.90B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.12B | 5.61B | 5.15B | 4.09B | 5.97B | 6.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 599.05M | 461.31M | 478.57M | 910.75M | 931.47M | 618.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 809.46M | 674.72M | 686.61M | 1.01B | 1.01B | 678.77M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.26B | -1.63B | -2.61B | 5.35B | -10.52B | -13.07B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.40B | 959.58M | 1.88B | -6.32B | 9.45B | 12.49B |
Popular Technical Analysis
Positive
136.69
Price Trends
123.17
Positive
121.03
Positive
114.49
Positive
Market Momentum
2.53
Negative
67.18
Neutral
95.64
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BPOP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 136.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 128.49, above the 50-day MA of 123.17, and above the 200-day MA of 114.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BPOP.
Popular Risk Analysis
Popular disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Popular reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Popular Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $9.55B | 13.65 | 22.83% | 2.43% | 20.72% | 3.63% | |
75 Outperform | $8.90B | 10.86 | 14.05% | 2.31% | 5.87% | 53.36% | |
73 Outperform | $7.84B | 13.03 | 15.83% | 1.97% | 12.63% | 14.25% | |
73 Outperform | $8.81B | 13.89 | 14.68% | 3.05% | 2.85% | 20.57% | |
72 Outperform | $8.85B | 9.97 | 13.39% | 2.97% | 0.12% | 27.30% | |
70 Outperform | $11.33B | 16.79 | 10.09% | 3.21% | -7.07% | 31.09% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
BPOP
Popular
136.69
38.06
38.59%
CMA
Comerica
88.67
23.71
36.50%
CBSH
Commerce Bancshares
53.23
-9.84
-15.60%
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers
139.06
4.60
3.42%
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
24.91
1.66
7.14%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
60.99
5.80
10.51%
Popular Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Popular reports stronger Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Popular, Inc. reported that net income for the fourth quarter of 2025 rose to $233.9 million from $211.3 million in the prior quarter, with earnings per share increasing to $3.53, supported by higher net interest income, an expanded net interest margin and lower operating expenses. Full-year 2025 net income reached $833.2 million, up from $614.2 million in 2024, while adjusted net income excluding FDIC special assessment effects grew to $823.5 million from $646.1 million, reflecting stronger profitability, loan growth to $39.3 billion, and improved credit quality metrics such as lower non-performing loans and net charge-offs. Deposits ended 2025 at $66.2 billion, down quarter-on-quarter due to lower Puerto Rico public deposits but higher when those are excluded, and Popular underscored its robust capital position with a 15.72% Common Equity Tier 1 ratio and continued capital returns, including repurchasing 4.66 million shares for $501.5 million and paying a quarterly dividend of $0.75 per share, as it advances a strategic framework aimed at boosting returns and cementing its position as a top-performing bank for customers and shareholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (BPOP) stock is a Buy with a $145.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Popular stock, see the BPOP Stock Forecast page.
Dividends
Popular Announces Quarterly Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Nov 14, 2025
On November 14, 2025, Popular, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.75 per share on its outstanding common stock, payable on January 2, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 5, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may enhance its attractiveness to investors, potentially impacting its market positioning positively.
The most recent analyst rating on (BPOP) stock is a Buy with a $160.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Popular stock, see the BPOP Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.