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Popular Inc (BPOP)
NASDAQ:BPOP
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Popular (BPOP) AI Stock Analysis

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BPOP

Popular

(NASDAQ:BPOP)

Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$132.00
â–²(14.45%Upside)
Popular, Inc. (BPOP) demonstrates strong financial performance with substantial profitability and debt management. The stock benefits from positive technical indicators and a reasonable valuation with a solid dividend yield. The recent earnings call reinforces confidence with impressive growth metrics and strategic capital actions. While challenges in operating expenses and deposit seasonality exist, the overall outlook remains positive, underscoring a solid investment potential.
Positive Factors
Deposit Base
Retail deposits are substantially higher compared to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a strong deposit base.
Long-Term Outlook
The longer-term outlook remains attractive, with expectations for net interest income to benefit from the repricing of public funds.
Negative Factors
Deposit Outflows
The company is facing uncertainty due to an accelerated pace of retail deposit outflows and a worse deposit mix.
Earnings Revision
BPOP's NII fell short of our Street-low est and guided down due to a smaller b/s, leading to a 6% EPS miss and likely lower consensus ahead.
Financial Guidance
The company's preliminary guidance for net interest income in the upcoming fiscal year is below prior estimates, contributing to the earnings revision.

Popular (BPOP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Popular Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPopular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various retail, mortgage, and commercial banking products and services in Puerto Rico, the United States, and British Virgin Islands. The company provides savings, NOW, money market, and other interest-bearing demand accounts; non-interest bearing demand deposits; and certificates of deposit. It also offers commercial and industrial, commercial multi-family, commercial real estate, and residential mortgage loans; consumer loans, including personal loans, credit cards, automobile loans, home equity lines of credit, and other loans to individual borrowers; construction loans; and lease financing comprising automobile loans/leases. In addition, the company provides investment banking, auto and equipment leasing and financing, broker-dealer, and insurance services; debit cards; and online banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 169 branches; and 616 ATMs in Puerto Rico, 23 ATMs in the Virgin Islands, and 91 ATMs in the United States Mainland. Popular, Inc. was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Hato Rey, Puerto Rico.
How the Company Makes MoneyPopular, Inc. generates revenue through various streams, primarily through its banking operations. The company's income is largely derived from interest earned on loans and advances to customers, such as personal loans, mortgages, and commercial loans. Additionally, Popular, Inc. earns non-interest income through fees and commissions from services such as transaction processing, asset management, and investment advisory. The company also benefits from its wealth management services, which contribute to its fee-based income. Popular, Inc.'s strategic partnerships and expansive branch network further bolster its revenue generation capabilities by enhancing customer reach and service offerings.

Popular Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.10%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, significant loan growth, improved credit quality, and strategic capital return actions. However, there are concerns about increasing operating expenses and expected deposit seasonality effects. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the challenges.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Reported net income of $210 million and an EPS of $3.09 per share, marking an increase of $32 million and $0.53 per share, respectively, compared to the first quarter. Achieved a 13.3% return on tangible common equity.
Significant Loan Growth
Loans grew by more than $900 million during the quarter, including a notable $425 million loan to the private sector entity operating several toll roads in Puerto Rico.
Expansion of Net Interest Margin
Net interest income increased by $26 million, driven by balance sheet growth and asset repricing, resulting in a net interest margin expansion of 9 basis points.
Improved Credit Quality
Credit quality metrics improved with lower non-performing loans, lower inflows, and lower net charge-offs. The provision for credit losses was $50 million, down from $65 million in the previous quarter.
Capital Return Actions
Announced a new incremental common stock repurchase program of up to $500 million and a 7% increase in quarterly common stock dividend to $0.75 per share.
Negative Updates
Increased Operating Expenses
Total operating expenses increased by $22 million compared to last quarter, mainly due to a $17 million increase in personnel costs.
Deposit Seasonality Concerns
Expected third-quarter deposit balances to decrease due to historical seasonality, as the retail client base spends Q1 and Q2 tax refunds.
Company Guidance
During the Popular, Inc. Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported a strong financial performance with net income rising to $210 million, or $3.09 per share, an increase of $32 million and $0.53 per share compared to the previous quarter. This boost in earnings resulted in a robust 13.3% return on tangible common equity (ROTCE). The quarter saw an impressive $900 million growth in loans, driven by a $425 million infrastructure financing in Puerto Rico. Popular also announced a new $500 million stock repurchase program and increased its quarterly dividend by 7% to $0.75 per share, reflecting its strong capital position. Deposits increased by $1.4 billion, largely due to public funds, while net interest income grew by 4.3% to $632 million, aided by higher loan volumes and favorable repricing. Credit quality improved with net charge-offs falling to $42 million, or 45 basis points, and non-performing loans decreasing slightly. The company revised its net interest income growth guidance to 10% to 11% for 2025 and expects noninterest income to be at the high end of the $155 million to $160 million range quarterly. Operating expenses rose to $493 million due to profit-sharing accruals, yet the company remains committed to cost discipline, expecting expense growth, including profit-sharing, to be between 4% and 5% for the year.

Popular Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Popular demonstrates strong profitability and financial stability, with consistent revenue growth and effective cost management. The balance sheet reflects a low leverage environment and effective equity utilization. However, the company should focus on improving equity levels and enhancing free cash flow growth to ensure sustained financial health.
Income Statement
80
Positive
Popular has shown solid revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $4.20 billion, marking a 0.18% increase from 2024 to 2025. The gross profit margin stands at 61.7%, indicating good cost management, while the net profit margin improved to 16.4%, showcasing enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 20.5% and 21.9%, respectively, reflecting operational efficiency. However, revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 was modest at 11.48%, needing attention for long-term growth.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's balance sheet is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, indicating low leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is strong at 11.87%, showcasing effective utilization of equity. The equity ratio is 7.8%, slightly low, suggesting reliance on liabilities. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with manageable debt levels, though equity levels could be improved.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Popular's operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.99, indicating strong cash generation capability relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.69, showcasing adequate free cash flow generation. However, the free cash flow growth rate is 2.79%, which is modest, indicating room for improvement in cash flow management.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.19B3.76B3.24B2.64B2.49B
Gross Profit2.54B2.44B2.85B2.67B1.96B
EBITDA856.63M737.23M1.29B1.31B683.41M
Net Income614.21M541.34M1.10B934.89M506.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets73.05B70.76B67.64B75.10B65.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments25.02B24.08B23.76B42.84B33.57B
Total Debt1.31B1.24B1.58B1.34B1.58B
Total Liabilities67.43B65.61B63.54B69.13B59.90B
Stockholders Equity5.61B5.15B4.09B5.97B6.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow461.31M478.57M910.75M931.47M618.62M
Operating Cash Flow674.72M686.61M1.01B1.01B678.77M
Investing Cash Flow-1.63B-2.61B5.35B-10.52B-13.07B
Financing Cash Flow959.58M1.88B-6.32B9.45B12.49B

Popular Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price115.33
Price Trends
50DMA
108.28
Positive
100DMA
99.57
Positive
200DMA
97.80
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.16
Positive
RSI
62.09
Neutral
STOCH
56.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BPOP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 115.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 113.75, above the 50-day MA of 108.28, and above the 200-day MA of 97.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BPOP.

Popular Risk Analysis

Popular disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Popular reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Popular Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$7.96B12.7820.74%2.59%15.93%-0.47%
79
Outperform
$7.84B11.1012.73%2.36%6.27%45.08%
78
Outperform
$6.82B12.669.57%2.15%-0.77%17.19%
77
Outperform
$8.14B10.0713.28%3.07%2.64%32.56%
73
Outperform
$7.88B10.8914.71%3.10%11.50%220.78%
70
Neutral
$6.45B12.347.02%3.40%3.66%20.33%
68
Neutral
$17.10B11.199.70%3.58%11.11%-4.55%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BPOP
Popular
115.33
16.01
16.12%
BOKF
Bok Financial
105.33
3.36
3.30%
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
21.65
2.21
11.37%
PB
Prosperity Bancshares
67.70
-1.86
-2.67%
SNV
Synovus
49.61
4.28
9.44%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
55.38
5.24
10.45%

Popular Corporate Events

Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Popular Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Jul 23, 2025

Popular, Inc. reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with a net income of $210.4 million, up from $177.5 million in the first quarter. The company saw improvements across various financial metrics, including net interest income, net interest margin, and credit quality. Additionally, Popular announced an increase in its quarterly dividend and a new stock repurchase program, reflecting its robust capital position and commitment to shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (BPOP) stock is a Buy with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Popular stock, see the BPOP Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackDividends
Popular Announces Dividend Increase and Stock Buyback
Positive
Jul 16, 2025

On July 16, 2025, Popular, Inc. announced plans to increase its quarterly common stock dividend from $0.70 to $0.75 per share, starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, pending board approval. Additionally, the company unveiled a new $500 million common stock repurchase program, supplementing the existing 2024 Repurchase Program. These capital actions underscore Popular’s strong capital position and its commitment to delivering sustainable returns to shareholders while continuing to invest in its franchise and support its clients and communities.

The most recent analyst rating on (BPOP) stock is a Buy with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Popular stock, see the BPOP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Popular Appoints Javier Ferrer as New CEO
Neutral
Jun 27, 2025

On June 27, 2025, Popular, Inc. announced the appointment of Javier D. Ferrer as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective July 1, 2025. Mr. Ferrer, who has been with the company since May 2024, will also lead its subsidiaries, overseeing strategic planning and business operations across various regions. This leadership change is part of the company’s ongoing strategic initiatives, with Mr. Ferrer having no special arrangements or family ties influencing his selection. The announcement reflects Popular’s commitment to maintaining robust leadership and continuity in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (BPOP) stock is a Buy with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Popular stock, see the BPOP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Popular Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 12, 2025

Popular, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 8, 2025, where shareholders voted on three key proposals. The election of eleven directors for a one-year term was approved, along with an advisory vote on executive compensation and the ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (BPOP) stock is a Buy with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Popular stock, see the BPOP Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Popular Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend Approval
Positive
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Popular, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.70 per share on its outstanding common stock. This dividend will be payable on July 1, 2025, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 29, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may positively impact investor confidence and the company’s market position.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025