Popular Inc (BPOP)
NASDAQ:BPOP
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Popular
(NASDAQ:BPOP)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$152.00
â–²(13.92% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
BPOP’s score is driven mainly by solid financial performance (revenue growth, 2025 earnings rebound, improving leverage) and supportive valuation (low P/E plus a moderate dividend). The main offsets are mixed near-term technicals (below the 20-day average with subdued momentum) and earnings-call risks around deposit outflows, higher 2026 charge-offs, and modest expense growth despite positive NII and loan growth guidance.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent multi-year revenue expansion demonstrates durable market traction across retail, commercial and wealth channels. That steady top-line growth supports loan origination capacity, fee income stability and provides a structural base for earnings and reinvestment over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Deposit Concentration
Heavy reliance on Puerto Rico public deposits creates funding concentration and outflow vulnerability. Persistent public deposit normalization pressures funding mix and cost of deposits, which can structurally compress margins and force more expensive wholesale funding if outflows continue.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent multi-year revenue expansion demonstrates durable market traction across retail, commercial and wealth channels. That steady top-line growth supports loan origination capacity, fee income stability and provides a structural base for earnings and reinvestment over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Popular (BPOP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.64B
Dividend Yield2.31%
Average Volume (3M)553.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth5.87%
EPS Growth53.36%
CountryUS
Employees9,274
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.38
Shares Outstanding65,104,300
10 Day Avg. Volume608,328
30 Day Avg. Volume553,667
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.35
Price to Sales (P/S)1.90
P/FCF Ratio12.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.32
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$153.25Price Target Upside14.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)14.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.49B
Popular Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Popular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various retail, mortgage, and commercial banking products and services in Puerto Rico, the United States, and British Virgin Islands. The company provides savings, NOW, money market, and other inte...
How the Company Makes Money
Popular generates revenue through several key streams, including net interest income from loans and deposits, non-interest income from fees associated with banking services, and investment income. The bank earns interest by lending money at higher...
Popular Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operating and financial performance for 2025: strong profitability (net income +36% YoY), expanded margins, solid loan growth, improved credit metrics, a robust capital position, and active shareholder returns (buybacks and dividend increase). Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (NII +5%–7%, loan growth 3%–4%) while noting a tempered outlook relative to recent years and several headwinds: deposit outflows (public deposits), expected modest increases in net charge-offs, consumer auto softness, and ongoing technology/investment timing that will lift expenses in 2026. Management emphasized disciplined capital management, continued transformation investments, and confidence in Puerto Rico’s economic tailwinds (including onshoring), but also acknowledged lingering structural and macro risks such as PREPA and affordability. On balance, the highlights—strong earnings, margin expansion, loan growth, improving credit metrics, and sizable capital returns—outweigh the lowlights, though the company expects some moderation and prudent conservatism in 2026.Positive Updates
Record Improvement in Annual Profitability
Net income for fiscal 2025 of $833 million, up $219 million or 36% year-over-year; fourth-quarter net income of $234 million, up $23 million QoQ, and EPS of $3.53 (increase of $0.38). ROTCE exceeded 14% in Q4 and was 13% for the full year, demonstrating progress toward the 14% objective.
Negative Updates
Deposit Outflows and Funding Mix Pressure
Ending deposit balances decreased $323 million in Q4 and average deposits decreased $880 million, largely due to anticipated outflows of Puerto Rico public deposits which fell $662 million in the quarter to $19.4 billion. Management expects public deposits to remain in the $18B–$20B range, and deposit cost pressures remain a key driver of margin guidance.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Improvement in Annual Profitability
Net income for fiscal 2025 of $833 million, up $219 million or 36% year-over-year; fourth-quarter net income of $234 million, up $23 million QoQ, and EPS of $3.53 (increase of $0.38). ROTCE exceeded 14% in Q4 and was 13% for the full year, demonstrating progress toward the 14% objective.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to modest 2026 improvement while emphasizing capital return and discipline: consolidated loan growth of 3–4%, net interest income up 5–7% (with continued margin expansion from a GAAP NIM of 3.61% / FTE 4.03% and reinvestment of securities), quarterly noninterest income of $160–165M, full‑year GAAP expenses up ~3%, an effective tax rate of 15–17%, and annual net charge‑offs of 55–70 bps; management expects Puerto Rico public deposits to be $18–20B, will maintain a 2–3 year investment portfolio duration (they bought ~$900M of Treasuries at ~3.56% and 2.1‑year duration in Q4), plans continued buybacks (Q4 repurchase ~$148M, ~$281M remaining authorization, ~$500M repurchased in 2025 and ~$720M since resumption) and a likely dividend increase after the $0.75/share quarterly payout, and remains focused on reaching a sustainable ~14% ROTCE (Q4 >14%, 2025 = 13%) while CET1 was 15.7% and tangible book was $82.65.Popular Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.43B | 4.19B | 3.76B | 3.24B | 2.64B |
| Gross Profit | 2.93B | 2.54B | 2.44B | 2.85B | 2.67B |
| EBITDA | 1.01B | 856.63M | 737.23M | 1.29B | 1.31B |
| Net Income | 833.16M | 614.21M | 541.34M | 1.10B | 934.89M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 75.35B | 73.05B | 70.76B | 67.64B | 75.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 439.32M | 25.02B | 24.08B | 23.76B | 42.84B |
| Total Debt | 1.58B | 1.31B | 1.24B | 1.58B | 1.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 69.10B | 67.43B | 65.61B | 63.54B | 69.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.25B | 5.61B | 5.15B | 4.09B | 5.97B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 680.99M | 461.31M | 478.57M | 910.75M | 931.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 878.45M | 674.72M | 686.61M | 1.01B | 1.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.76B | -1.63B | -2.61B | 5.35B | -10.52B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 864.58M | 959.58M | 1.88B | -6.32B | 9.45B |
Popular Technical Analysis
Positive
133.43
Price Trends
134.38
Negative
126.24
Positive
120.96
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.15
Negative
50.96
Neutral
72.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BPOP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 133.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 132.16, below the 50-day MA of 134.38, and above the 200-day MA of 120.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BPOP.
Popular Risk Analysis
Popular disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Popular reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Popular Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $8.64B | 8.78 | 13.82% | 2.31% | 5.87% | 53.36% | |
73 Outperform | $8.47B | 12.93 | 8.51% | 2.43% | 20.72% | 3.63% | |
72 Outperform | $7.20B | 12.84 | 15.43% | 1.97% | 12.63% | 14.25% | |
69 Neutral | $8.62B | 12.51 | 14.95% | 3.05% | 2.85% | 20.57% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $8.47B | 9.58 | 13.33% | 2.97% | 0.12% | 27.30% |
* Financial Sector Average
BPOP
Popular
132.77
41.87
46.06%
CBSH
Commerce Bancshares
48.99
-9.18
-15.78%
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers
136.38
16.36
13.63%
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
21.73
0.81
3.85%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
57.25
8.62
17.72%
Popular Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Popular announces director Myrna Soto to step down
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
Popular, Inc. announced that on February 25, 2026, director Myrna M. Soto notified the board of her decision not to stand for re-election when her current term ends at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders, scheduled for May 8, 2026. The company...
Dividends
Popular Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend, Signals Ongoing Strength
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Popular, Inc. announced that its board of directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.75 per share on its outstanding common stock. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on April 1, 2026 to shareholders of record as of ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Popular reports stronger Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
On January 27, 2026, Popular, Inc. reported that net income for the fourth quarter of 2025 rose to $233.9 million from $211.3 million in the prior quarter, with earnings per share increasing to $3.53, supported by higher net interest income, an ex...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.