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Popular Inc (BPOP)
NASDAQ:BPOP

Popular (BPOP) AI Stock Analysis

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BP

Popular

(NASDAQ:BPOP)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$118.00
â–²(13.67%Upside)
Popular's overall score reflects strong technical momentum and a positive earnings call with improved financial metrics. However, challenges include concerns about cash flow management and potential economic impacts from tariff uncertainties. The reasonable valuation and positive corporate event further support the stock's appeal.
Positive Factors
Deposit Base
Retail deposits are substantially higher compared to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a strong deposit base.
Long-Term Outlook
The longer-term outlook remains attractive, with expectations for net interest income to benefit from the repricing of public funds.
Negative Factors
Deposit Outflows
The company is facing uncertainty due to an accelerated pace of retail deposit outflows and a worse deposit mix.
Earnings Revision
BPOP's NII fell short of our Street-low est and guided down due to a smaller b/s, leading to a 6% EPS miss and likely lower consensus ahead.
Financial Guidance
The company's preliminary guidance for net interest income in the upcoming fiscal year is below prior estimates, contributing to the earnings revision.

Popular (BPOP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Popular Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPopular, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various retail, mortgage, and commercial banking products and services in Puerto Rico, the United States, and British Virgin Islands. The company provides savings, NOW, money market, and other interest-bearing demand accounts; non-interest bearing demand deposits; and certificates of deposit. It also offers commercial and industrial, commercial multi-family, commercial real estate, and residential mortgage loans; consumer loans, including personal loans, credit cards, automobile loans, home equity lines of credit, and other loans to individual borrowers; construction loans; and lease financing comprising automobile loans/leases. In addition, the company provides investment banking, auto and equipment leasing and financing, broker-dealer, and insurance services; debit cards; and online banking services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 169 branches; and 616 ATMs in Puerto Rico, 23 ATMs in the Virgin Islands, and 91 ATMs in the United States Mainland. Popular, Inc. was founded in 1893 and is headquartered in Hato Rey, Puerto Rico.
How the Company Makes MoneyPopular, Inc. generates revenue through various streams, primarily through its banking operations. The company's income is largely derived from interest earned on loans and advances to customers, such as personal loans, mortgages, and commercial loans. Additionally, Popular, Inc. earns non-interest income through fees and commissions from services such as transaction processing, asset management, and investment advisory. The company also benefits from its wealth management services, which contribute to its fee-based income. Popular, Inc.'s strategic partnerships and expansive branch network further bolster its revenue generation capabilities by enhancing customer reach and service offerings.

Popular Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 16.81%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance in terms of net interest income, loan and deposit growth, and improved credit quality. However, there were concerns about non-interest income decline and economic uncertainty due to tariff issues. Overall, the positive aspects of financial growth and stability outweighed the challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Net Interest Income and Margin Expansion
Net interest income increased by $15 million, and the net interest margin expanded by five basis points to 3.4%, driven by lower deposit costs.
Strong Loan and Deposit Growth
Loan balances increased by $146 million, and deposit balances grew by $935 million, with contributions from both banks.
Improved Credit Quality
Credit quality improved with lower net charge-offs and early delinquencies, and non-performing loans decreased significantly.
Share Repurchase Program
Repurchased $122 million in shares at an average price of $96 per share, progressing on the $500 million authorization.
Tourism and Hospitality Sector Growth
Passenger traffic at San Juan International Airport increased by 11%, and the hotel occupancy rate exceeded 75%.
Negative Updates
Non-Interest Income Decline
Non-interest income was $152 million, a decrease of $13 million compared to Q4, below the low end of 2025 quarterly guidance.
Economic Uncertainty and Tariff Concerns
Recent tariff uncertainty has impacted markets, raising recession concerns, which could affect future loan demand and economic activity.
Company Guidance
During Popular Incorporated's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, several key financial metrics were highlighted. The company reported an increase in net interest income by $15 million, with the net interest margin expanding by five basis points to 3.4%, primarily due to lower deposit costs. Loan balances rose by $146 million, driven by growth in the Commercial and Construction segments, while deposit balances increased by $935 million across both banks. The quarter also saw a $122 million share repurchase at an average price of $96 per share, contributing to a tangible book value per share increase by nearly $4 to approximately $72. Credit quality improved, evidenced by lower net charge-offs and early delinquency, and non-interest income was reported at $152 million, slightly below guidance due to variances in fair value adjustments. Operating expenses increased slightly to $471 million, with a stable effective tax rate of 20%. The company maintains a strong CET1 ratio of 16.1% and aims for a return on tangible common equity of at least 12% by the fourth quarter of 2025.

Popular Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Popular demonstrates stable financial health with consistent revenue and profitability margins. The balance sheet is strong with manageable debt levels, but cash flow management is a concern due to unavailable data on free cash flow.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Popular's income statement shows a moderate performance with a positive trend in profitability. The gross profit margin is solid at 100%, indicating strong revenue retention. The net profit margin has slightly decreased from the previous year to approximately 22.9%, but remains competitive within the banking sector. Revenue growth is slightly positive at 1.5% compared to the prior year, suggesting stable demand. However, there's a noticeable decrease in EBIT margin from 30% to 39.1%, which could be a concern if the trend continues.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a sound financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16, indicating low leverage. The equity ratio is stable at 7.7%, though slightly low for the industry, suggesting moderate reliance on external financing. Return on equity stands at 10.9%, pointing to efficient use of equity despite a decline from previous years. The company maintains a healthy level of cash and short-term investments, supporting liquidity.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Popular's cash flow performance is mixed. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not calculable due to missing data, which limits insights into cash generation efficiency. Free cash flow growth is unavailable, impacting the ability to assess future investment capacity. However, cash flow management remains a concern as free cash flow is not currently reported, indicating potential operational cash constraints.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
4.19B3.76B3.24B2.64B2.49B
Gross Profit
2.54B2.44B2.85B2.67B1.96B
EBIT
796.62M675.54M1.23B1.24B618.56M
EBITDA
856.63M737.23M1.29B1.31B683.41M
Net Income Common Stockholders
614.21M541.34M1.10B934.89M506.62M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
419.64M7.42B23.76B25.30B21.93B
Total Assets
73.05B70.76B67.64B75.10B65.93B
Total Debt
1.25B1.14B1.41B1.24B1.22B
Net Debt
-5.55B-6.28B-4.83B-16.73B-10.73B
Total Liabilities
67.43B65.61B63.54B69.13B59.90B
Stockholders Equity
5.61B5.15B4.09B5.97B6.03B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
461.31M478.57M910.75M931.47M618.62M
Operating Cash Flow
667.67M686.61M1.01B1.01B678.77M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.63B-2.61B5.35B-10.52B-13.07B
Financing Cash Flow
959.58M1.88B-6.32B9.45B12.49B

Popular Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price103.81
Price Trends
50DMA
96.65
Positive
100DMA
96.48
Positive
200DMA
95.64
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.12
Positive
RSI
62.04
Neutral
STOCH
71.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BPOP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 103.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 104.09, above the 50-day MA of 96.65, and above the 200-day MA of 95.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BPOP.

Popular Risk Analysis

Popular disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Popular reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Popular Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$6.15B10.9710.17%2.37%6.58%26.56%
PBPB
74
Outperform
$6.67B13.376.83%3.33%9.02%20.88%
SNSNV
73
Outperform
$6.75B13.2210.63%3.21%-1.56%22.50%
ONONB
73
Outperform
$7.75B11.889.29%2.67%13.68%-6.57%
72
Outperform
$7.19B9.2413.06%3.53%4.84%28.90%
71
Outperform
$7.23B10.7212.54%2.65%9.33%43.64%
64
Neutral
$12.93B9.707.85%78.03%12.07%-7.83%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BPOP
Popular
103.81
22.06
26.98%
BOKF
Bok Financial
93.40
7.98
9.34%
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
20.42
5.05
32.86%
PB
Prosperity Bancshares
67.63
11.93
21.42%
SNV
Synovus
47.13
11.79
33.36%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
47.43
7.99
20.26%

Popular Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Popular Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 12, 2025

Popular, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 8, 2025, where shareholders voted on three key proposals. The election of eleven directors for a one-year term was approved, along with an advisory vote on executive compensation and the ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (BPOP) stock is a Buy with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Popular stock, see the BPOP Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Popular Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend Approval
Positive
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Popular, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.70 per share on its outstanding common stock. This dividend will be payable on July 1, 2025, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 29, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may positively impact investor confidence and the company’s market position.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Popular Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Apr 23, 2025

Popular, Inc. reported a net income of $177.5 million for the first quarter of 2025, slightly down from $177.8 million in the previous quarter. The company saw an increase in net interest income and improved credit quality metrics, with decreases in non-performing loans and net charge-offs. Despite a volatile operating environment, Popular, Inc. maintained strong capital and liquidity levels, positioning itself well for various macroeconomic scenarios. The company also repurchased shares as part of its capital actions and experienced growth in loans and deposits, particularly in Puerto Rico.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.