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Popular
(NASDAQ:BPOP)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$198.00
â–˛(15.30% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/23/26
BPOP scores well due to improving financial fundamentals (profitability, leverage and ROE trends) and strong technical momentum with the stock trading above key moving averages. The latest earnings call adds support via constructive 2026 guidance and meaningful capital return plans, while valuation looks reasonable at ~12.9x earnings. The main constraints on the score are credit-event volatility highlighted this quarter and the fact that revenue growth has recently been flat with earnings still normalized below prior-cycle peaks.
Positive Factors
Capital returns with strong capital buffer
A sizable buyback authorization plus a planned dividend raise, backed by a CET1 ~16%, indicates durable capital generation and a conservative buffer. That combination supports repeatable shareholder returns while preserving capital flexibility for stress scenarios over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Commercial credit volatility
Large isolated commercial losses and fresh C&I nonaccruals highlight concentration and underwriting sensitivity in the commercial portfolio. Such episodic credit events can produce sustained earnings volatility, raise reserve needs and constrain capital allocation over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Capital returns with strong capital buffer
A sizable buyback authorization plus a planned dividend raise, backed by a CET1 ~16%, indicates durable capital generation and a conservative buffer. That combination supports repeatable shareholder returns while preserving capital flexibility for stress scenarios over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Popular (BPOP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.19B
Dividend Yield1.71%
Average Volume (3M)565.01K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.8
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth3.80%
EPS Growth43.71%
CountryUS
Employees9,238
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)14.82
Shares Outstanding63,866,680
10 Day Avg. Volume509,095
30 Day Avg. Volume565,013
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.35
Price to Sales (P/S)1.90
P/FCF Ratio12.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$194.00Price Target Upside12.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)15.74
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.58B
Popular Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Popular, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, offers a broad spectrum of financial products and services encompassing retail, mortgage, and commercial banking. These operations extend across Puerto Rico, the United States, and the British Virgin Isl...
How the Company Makes Money
Popular, Inc. primarily makes money through (1) net interest income and (2) non-interest income. Net interest income is earned from the spread between interest collected on loans and other interest-earning assets (e.g., commercial and consumer loa...
Popular Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strongly positive operational and financial quarter with solid earnings growth (EPS +15% QoQ, +41% YoY), improved profitability (ROTCE 17%), NII growth, fee income expansion, meaningful capital returns (dividend increase and $1B buyback authorization), and continued investments in branches and digital capabilities. Credit quality remains stable in underlying consumer and mortgage portfolios and reserve coverage is healthy. The quarter’s main negatives were discrete commercial credit events (a $71M charge-off and ~$129M of new C&I nonaccruals) that elevated reported net charge-offs and produced some volatility in NPL metrics, along with modest expense increases and deposit-mix headwinds from higher-cost public funds. Overall, the positive drivers and capital/return actions materially outweigh the discrete credit challenges reported this quarter.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Earnings and EPS Growth
Net income of $278 million and diluted EPS of $4.35, up $0.57 QoQ (+15%) and +41% YoY, driven by higher net interest income, solid fee generation, balance sheet growth and strong capital generation.
Negative Updates
Discrete Large Commercial Charge-Off
Recognized a $71 million charge-off related to a previously nonperforming $155 million commercial loan and transferred the remaining $84 million to loans held for sale (sale completed July 2 for $84M). This one-time loss materially increased quarterly net charge-offs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Earnings and EPS Growth
Net income of $278 million and diluted EPS of $4.35, up $0.57 QoQ (+15%) and +41% YoY, driven by higher net interest income, solid fee generation, balance sheet growth and strong capital generation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management issued detailed 2026 guidance: loan growth is expected at the low end of a 3–4% range; net interest income is now forecast to rise 8–9% with NIM broadly stable (Q2 GAAP NIM 3.66%, taxable-equivalent 4.17%); quarterly noninterest income is expected at $165–170M (Q2 was $181M); full‑year operating expenses are guided to grow ~2–3% (Q2 expenses $484M); effective tax rate 14–15% (Q2 was 14%); net charge‑offs are now expected at 65–80 bps for the year (Q2 NCOs annualized 1.05%, excluding a $71M commercial charge‑off = 33 bps); capital and shareholder return actions include a new $1B buyback authorization, an additional $300–400M of repurchases planned for 2026 (YTD repurchases $280M; Q2 repurchase $125M), a planned 20% dividend increase to $0.90/sh beginning in Q4 (board approval pending); and balance‑sheet / capital metrics of deposits $70.2B, Puerto Rico public deposits expected $20–22B, CET1 16.1%, tangible book value per share $87.94, ACL/loans 1.97% and ACL/NPL 190%.Popular Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
76
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.50B | 4.43B | 4.19B | 3.76B | 3.24B | 2.64B |
| Gross Profit | 3.11B | 2.93B | 2.54B | 2.44B | 2.85B | 2.67B |
| EBITDA | 1.17B | 1.06B | 856.63M | 737.23M | 1.29B | 1.31B |
| Net Income | 969.11M | 833.16M | 614.21M | 541.34M | 1.10B | 934.89M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 78.97B | 75.35B | 73.05B | 70.76B | 67.64B | 75.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 365.01M | 25.61B | 25.02B | 24.08B | 23.76B | 42.84B |
| Total Debt | 1.46B | 1.59B | 1.31B | 1.24B | 1.58B | 1.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 72.54B | 69.10B | 67.43B | 65.61B | 63.54B | 69.13B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.43B | 6.25B | 5.61B | 5.15B | 4.09B | 5.97B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 517.13M | 680.99M | 461.31M | 478.57M | 910.75M | 931.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 655.07M | 878.45M | 674.72M | 686.61M | 1.01B | 1.01B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -191.32M | -1.76B | -1.63B | -2.61B | 5.35B | -10.52B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -480.02M | 864.58M | 959.58M | 1.88B | -6.32B | 9.45B |
Popular Technical Analysis
Positive
171.73
Price Trends
164.38
Positive
153.10
Positive
138.55
Positive
Market Momentum
3.14
Positive
66.53
Neutral
67.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BPOP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 171.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 172.51, above the 50-day MA of 164.38, and above the 200-day MA of 138.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BPOP.
Popular Risk Analysis
Popular disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Popular reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Popular Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $10.19B | 11.68 | 10.46% | 2.15% | 27.70% | 32.69% | |
78 Outperform | $11.19B | 11.82 | 15.44% | 1.75% | 3.80% | 43.71% | |
75 Outperform | $8.64B | 14.42 | 14.39% | 1.84% | 6.89% | 3.32% | |
71 Outperform | $10.17B | 8.86 | 16.14% | 2.60% | 3.90% | 43.99% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $10.34B | 15.68 | 15.04% | 2.45% | 1.94% | 13.72% |
* Financial Sector Average
BPOP
Popular
177.52
66.50
59.89%
CBSH
Commerce Bancshares
59.66
3.79
6.78%
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers
166.13
47.68
40.26%
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
27.00
7.03
35.18%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
71.70
22.10
44.56%
Popular Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Popular unveils capital plan and leadership transition
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
Popular, Inc. reported unaudited second-quarter 2026 net income of $278 million, up 13% from the prior quarter and 32% year over year, with basic and diluted EPS of $4.35 and return on tangible common equity rising to 17%. Results were driven by h...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Popular Announces CEO Retirement and Leadership Transition
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
Popular announced on July 23, 2026 that President and CEO Javier D. Ferrer will retire effective August 31, 2026, ending a tenure that began in 2014 in various leadership roles and as CEO in July 2025. In recognition of his 2026 service, the board...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividends
Popular Boosts Dividend and Launches New Buyback Program
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
On July 23, 2026, Popular, Inc. announced plans to raise its quarterly common stock dividend from $0.75 to $0.90 per share starting with the fourth-quarter 2026 payout, subject to board approval. The move signals management’s confidence in t...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Popular addresses third‑party cybersecurity incident impacting customers
Negative
Jun 9, 2026
On May 15, 2026, Popular, Inc. was informed that Evertec, Inc., its third-party provider of core financial transaction processing and IT services, had suffered a cybersecurity incident affecting some client data, including information from Banco P...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Popular shareholders approve governance and indemnification updates
Positive
May 11, 2026
At its May 8, 2026 annual meeting, Popular’s shareholders approved amendments to the Restated Certificate of Incorporation that modernize indemnification provisions, add exculpation protections for directors and officers to the extent allowe...
Dividends
Popular Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
May 8, 2026
On May 8, 2026, Popular, Inc. announced that its board of directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.75 per share on its outstanding common stock. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on July 1, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the cl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.