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Popular Inc (BPOP)
NASDAQ:BPOP

Popular (BPOP) AI Stock Analysis

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BP

Popular

(NASDAQ:BPOP)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$128.00
â–²(11.99%Upside)
Popular, Inc. exhibits strong financial performance with effective cost management and low leverage. Despite current overbought technical indicators suggesting a potential pullback, the stock's valuation remains attractive. Positive earnings call sentiment and recent dividend announcements further support investor confidence, although non-interest income and economic concerns pose some risk.
Positive Factors
Deposit Base
Retail deposits are substantially higher compared to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a strong deposit base.
Long-Term Outlook
The longer-term outlook remains attractive, with expectations for net interest income to benefit from the repricing of public funds.
Negative Factors
Deposit Outflows
The company is facing uncertainty due to an accelerated pace of retail deposit outflows and a worse deposit mix.
Earnings Revision
BPOP's NII fell short of our Street-low est and guided down due to a smaller b/s, leading to a 6% EPS miss and likely lower consensus ahead.
Financial Guidance
The company's preliminary guidance for net interest income in the upcoming fiscal year is below prior estimates, contributing to the earnings revision.

Popular (BPOP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Popular Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPopular, Inc. (BPOP) is a prominent financial services company operating primarily in Puerto Rico and the United States. It provides a wide range of banking and financial solutions, including retail banking, commercial banking, mortgage banking, and wealth management services. Popular, Inc. is the parent company of Banco Popular de Puerto Rico, one of the largest banks in Puerto Rico, and also operates Popular Bank in the mainland United States.
How the Company Makes MoneyPopular, Inc. generates revenue through various streams, primarily through its banking operations. The company's income is largely derived from interest earned on loans and advances to customers, such as personal loans, mortgages, and commercial loans. Additionally, Popular, Inc. earns non-interest income through fees and commissions from services such as transaction processing, asset management, and investment advisory. The company also benefits from its wealth management services, which contribute to its fee-based income. Popular, Inc.'s strategic partnerships and expansive branch network further bolster its revenue generation capabilities by enhancing customer reach and service offerings.

Popular Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 28.61%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance in terms of net interest income, loan and deposit growth, and improved credit quality. However, there were concerns about non-interest income decline and economic uncertainty due to tariff issues. Overall, the positive aspects of financial growth and stability outweighed the challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Net Interest Income and Margin Expansion
Net interest income increased by $15 million, and the net interest margin expanded by five basis points to 3.4%, driven by lower deposit costs.
Strong Loan and Deposit Growth
Loan balances increased by $146 million, and deposit balances grew by $935 million, with contributions from both banks.
Improved Credit Quality
Credit quality improved with lower net charge-offs and early delinquencies, and non-performing loans decreased significantly.
Share Repurchase Program
Repurchased $122 million in shares at an average price of $96 per share, progressing on the $500 million authorization.
Tourism and Hospitality Sector Growth
Passenger traffic at San Juan International Airport increased by 11%, and the hotel occupancy rate exceeded 75%.
Negative Updates
Non-Interest Income Decline
Non-interest income was $152 million, a decrease of $13 million compared to Q4, below the low end of 2025 quarterly guidance.
Economic Uncertainty and Tariff Concerns
Recent tariff uncertainty has impacted markets, raising recession concerns, which could affect future loan demand and economic activity.
Company Guidance
During Popular Incorporated's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, several key financial metrics were highlighted. The company reported an increase in net interest income by $15 million, with the net interest margin expanding by five basis points to 3.4%, primarily due to lower deposit costs. Loan balances rose by $146 million, driven by growth in the Commercial and Construction segments, while deposit balances increased by $935 million across both banks. The quarter also saw a $122 million share repurchase at an average price of $96 per share, contributing to a tangible book value per share increase by nearly $4 to approximately $72. Credit quality improved, evidenced by lower net charge-offs and early delinquency, and non-interest income was reported at $152 million, slightly below guidance due to variances in fair value adjustments. Operating expenses increased slightly to $471 million, with a stable effective tax rate of 20%. The company maintains a strong CET1 ratio of 16.1% and aims for a return on tangible common equity of at least 12% by the fourth quarter of 2025.

Popular Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong profitability and financial stability with consistent revenue growth and effective cost management. Low leverage and effective equity utilization, but improvement needed in equity levels and free cash flow growth.
Income Statement
80
Positive
Popular has shown solid revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $4.20 billion, marking a 0.18% increase from 2024 to 2025. The gross profit margin stands at 61.7%, indicating good cost management, while the net profit margin improved to 16.4%, showcasing enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 20.5% and 21.9%, respectively, reflecting operational efficiency. However, revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 was modest at 11.48%, needing attention for long-term growth.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's balance sheet is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21, indicating low leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is strong at 11.87%, showcasing effective utilization of equity. The equity ratio is 7.8%, slightly low, suggesting reliance on liabilities. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with manageable debt levels, though equity levels could be improved.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Popular's operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.99, indicating strong cash generation capability relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.69, showcasing adequate free cash flow generation. However, the free cash flow growth rate is 2.79%, which is modest, indicating room for improvement in cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.20B4.19B3.76B3.24B2.64B2.49B
Gross Profit2.59B2.54B2.44B2.85B2.67B1.96B
EBITDA917.07M856.63M737.23M1.29B1.31B683.41M
Net Income688.43M614.21M541.34M1.10B934.89M506.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets74.04B73.05B70.76B67.64B75.10B65.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments26.04B25.02B24.08B23.76B42.84B33.57B
Total Debt1.22B1.31B1.24B1.58B1.34B1.58B
Total Liabilities68.24B67.43B65.61B63.54B69.13B59.90B
Stockholders Equity5.80B5.61B5.15B4.09B5.97B6.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow474.17M461.31M478.57M910.75M931.47M618.62M
Operating Cash Flow685.22M674.72M686.61M1.01B1.01B678.77M
Investing Cash Flow-2.16B-1.63B-2.61B5.35B-10.52B-13.07B
Financing Cash Flow1.54B959.58M1.88B-6.32B9.45B12.49B

Popular Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price114.30
Price Trends
50DMA
103.35
Positive
100DMA
97.53
Positive
200DMA
96.47
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.89
Negative
RSI
77.49
Negative
STOCH
93.43
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BPOP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 114.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 107.37, above the 50-day MA of 103.35, and above the 200-day MA of 96.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.49 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.43 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BPOP.

Popular Risk Analysis

Popular disclosed 61 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Popular reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Popular Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$6.62B11.8110.17%2.21%6.58%26.56%
76
Outperform
$8.19B10.8113.06%3.10%4.84%28.90%
ONONB
75
Outperform
$8.42B13.249.29%2.46%13.68%-6.57%
PBPB
74
Outperform
$7.04B14.116.83%3.14%9.02%20.88%
74
Outperform
$7.83B11.8012.54%2.45%9.33%43.64%
SNSNV
73
Outperform
$7.66B15.4610.63%2.83%-1.56%22.50%
67
Neutral
$17.01B11.909.70%3.76%11.63%-9.47%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BPOP
Popular
114.30
30.70
36.72%
BOKF
Bok Financial
102.96
16.92
19.67%
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
22.76
6.52
40.15%
PB
Prosperity Bancshares
73.86
16.50
28.77%
SNV
Synovus
55.10
17.04
44.77%
ZION
Zions Bancorporation National Association
55.50
14.28
34.64%

Popular Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Popular Appoints Javier Ferrer as New CEO
Neutral
Jun 27, 2025

On June 27, 2025, Popular, Inc. announced the appointment of Javier D. Ferrer as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective July 1, 2025. Mr. Ferrer, who has been with the company since May 2024, will also lead its subsidiaries, overseeing strategic planning and business operations across various regions. This leadership change is part of the company’s ongoing strategic initiatives, with Mr. Ferrer having no special arrangements or family ties influencing his selection. The announcement reflects Popular’s commitment to maintaining robust leadership and continuity in its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (BPOP) stock is a Buy with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Popular stock, see the BPOP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Popular Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 12, 2025

Popular, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 8, 2025, where shareholders voted on three key proposals. The election of eleven directors for a one-year term was approved, along with an advisory vote on executive compensation and the ratification of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (BPOP) stock is a Buy with a $112.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Popular stock, see the BPOP Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Popular Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend Approval
Positive
May 8, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Popular, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.70 per share on its outstanding common stock. This dividend will be payable on July 1, 2025, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 29, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its shareholders and may positively impact investor confidence and the company’s market position.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Popular Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Apr 23, 2025

Popular, Inc. reported a net income of $177.5 million for the first quarter of 2025, slightly down from $177.8 million in the previous quarter. The company saw an increase in net interest income and improved credit quality metrics, with decreases in non-performing loans and net charge-offs. Despite a volatile operating environment, Popular, Inc. maintained strong capital and liquidity levels, positioning itself well for various macroeconomic scenarios. The company also repurchased shares as part of its capital actions and experienced growth in loans and deposits, particularly in Puerto Rico.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 05, 2025