Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.35B
• Dividend Yield: 2.43%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.17M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: 20.72%
• EPS Growth: 3.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 4,028
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.62
• Shares Outstanding: 389,673,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,737,931
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,166,132
• PEG Ratio: 1.99
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.33
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.58
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.84
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.14
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.69
• 1Y Price Target: $27.78
• Price Target Upside: 29.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.6
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.91B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $24.00 ▲(11.94% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

Overall score is driven by solid financial performance and constructive technical momentum, reinforced by a notably upbeat earnings outlook (loan growth, NII/NIM resilience, cost saves, strong capital/credit). Valuation is reasonable and capital-return actions are supportive, while margin/ROE softening and uneven free-cash-flow growth keep the score from being higher.

Positive Factors

Sustained loan growth

Consistent, above-trend loan production and a growing pipeline indicate durable earnings capacity from core lending. Sustained loan growth increases net interest income potential, supports asset mix expansion, and provides a multi-quarter revenue runway even if markets soften.

Strong capital and TBV growth

Rapid tangible book growth and CET1 rebuilding provide a durable capital buffer to absorb credit volatility and fund growth. Proven buybacks show management can return capital without impairing balance sheet strength, supporting long-term shareholder value creation.

Repricing tailwinds to NII

Significant new-money yield pickup and upcoming securities cash flow create structural net interest income support as assets reprice. This strengthens medium-term margin prospects and NII resilience versus peers reliant on legacy book yields.

Negative Factors

Softening ROE trend

A sustained decline in return on equity suggests the bank is earning less per unit of capital despite balance sheet growth. If ROE remains pressured, it limits capacity for organic capital buildup, dividends, and accretive M&A without increased leverage or higher margins.

Volatile free cash flow

Irregular free cash flow undermines predictability of capital returns and makes long-term planning harder. Volatility in cash generation can force more conservative capital policies or increase reliance on market funding when opportunistic repurchases or dividend maintenance conflict with cash shortfalls.

Deposit seasonality and broker usage

Seasonal swings in core deposits and increased reliance on brokered funding create structural liquidity and funding-cost exposure. Higher broker usage can compress margins over time and makes liability mix more sensitive to rate shifts or market dislocations.

Old National Bancorp Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Old National Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Old National Bank that provides various financial services to individual and commercial customers in the United States. It accepts deposit accounts, including noninterest-bearing demand, interest-bearing checking, negotiable order of withdrawal, savings and money market, and time deposits; and offers loans, such as home equity lines of credit, residential real estate loans, consumer loans, commercial loans, commercial real estate loans, letters of credit, and lease financing. The company also provides debit and automated teller machine cards, telephone access, online banking, and other electronic and mobile banking services; cash management, private banking, brokerage, trust, investment advisory, and other traditional banking services; wealth management, investment, and foreign currency services; and treasury management, merchant, health savings, and capital markets services, as well as community development lending and equity investment solutions. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a total of 162 banking centers located primarily in the states of Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Old National Bancorp was founded in 1834 and is headquartered in Evansville, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

ONB primarily generates earnings through a traditional bank revenue model: (1) Net interest income—interest earned on loans and other interest-earning assets minus interest paid on deposits and other funding sources. This spread-based income is typically the largest driver of revenue for banks, influenced by loan growth, deposit mix and pricing, credit quality, and prevailing interest rates. (2) Noninterest (fee) income—fees and service charges associated with banking activities, which commonly include deposit account service charges, payment and card-related fees, and other customer and treasury-related service fees. (3) Other sources—banks may also earn from investment securities activities, gains/losses, and other ancillary income depending on product mix; specific breakdowns for ONB are null. Significant partnerships or unique monetization arrangements beyond standard banking relationships are null.

Old National Bancorp Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statements show healthy fundamentals: solid revenue growth and steady profitability, supported by a larger balance sheet. Offsetting this are margin compression since 2021, a softer ROE trend, and choppy free-cash-flow growth that reduces confidence in consistency.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded materially over the last several years, accelerating into 2025 (annual revenue up ~7% in 2025 after strong growth in 2022–2024). Profitability remains solid with net margins around ~18–23% in 2022–2025, but margins have compressed from the unusually high 2020–2021 levels and EBIT/EBITDA margins have drifted lower since 2021. Net income is growing (2025 > 2024), though not as strongly as revenue, indicating some operating pressure.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet has grown significantly (assets and equity up strongly from 2020 to 2025), supporting scale and earnings capacity. Leverage looks moderate for a regional bank, with debt-to-equity generally in the ~0.85–1.09 range and improving versus the 2022 peak. Return on equity is positive but trending lower versus 2023 (down to ~7.9% in 2025 from ~10.5% in 2023), suggesting profitability on capital has softened even as the balance sheet expands.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently positive across the period, and cash generation roughly matches reported earnings (free cash flow to net income near ~0.85–1.00). However, free cash flow growth is volatile, including declines in 2023 and 2025, which points to less predictable cash momentum. Overall cash generation is adequate, but the uneven trajectory tempers confidence versus the stronger income statement trend.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.71B	2.96B	2.54B	1.85B	852.87M
Gross Profit	2.36B	1.77B	1.78B	1.58B	840.24M
EBITDA	977.98M	746.07M	816.56M	607.03M	377.47M
Net Income	669.26M	539.19M	581.99M	428.29M	277.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	72.15B	53.55B	49.09B	46.76B	24.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.83B	8.69B	7.89B	7.50B	8.20B
Total Debt	7.68B	5.41B	5.33B	5.59B	2.65B
Total Liabilities	63.66B	47.21B	43.53B	41.63B	21.44B
Stockholders Equity	8.49B	6.34B	5.56B	5.13B	3.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	637.41M	592.01M	477.97M	776.52M	281.69M
Operating Cash Flow	681.47M	622.28M	516.34M	814.42M	330.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.83B	-1.37B	-1.82B	-1.69B	-1.43B
Financing Cash Flow	1.75B	802.59M	1.75B	777.48M	1.33B

Old National Bancorp Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.44
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.09, below the 50-day MA of 23.61, and below the 200-day MA of 21.96, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.36 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.06 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ONB.

Old National Bancorp Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BPOP	74 Outperform	$8.56B	8.78	13.82%	2.31%	5.87%	53.36%
WTFC	74 Outperform	$8.88B	10.50	11.71%	1.40%	3.58%	13.93%
ONB	73 Outperform	$8.35B	12.93	8.51%	2.43%	20.72%	3.63%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ZION	66 Neutral	$7.99B	9.58	13.33%	2.97%	0.12%	27.30%
UMBF	65 Neutral	$8.43B	10.14	9.63%	1.37%	38.81%	10.38%

Old National Bancorp Capital Corporate Events

Old National Bancorp Expands Capital Returns, Adjusts Governance

On February 17, 2026, four Old National Bancorp directors — Ellen A. Rudnick, Rebecca S. Skillman, Stephen C. Van Arsdell and Austin M. Ramirez — notified the company they intend to retire from the board at the end of their terms at the May 13, 2026 annual meeting, with three departures tied to the firm’s age-based governance rules and Ramirez stepping down due to other professional commitments. The board responded by amending its by-laws on February 18, 2026 to allow board size to be set by resolution and voted to cut the board from 16 to 12 members once those retirements take effect, signaling a move to a smaller, more flexible governance structure.

In parallel, Old National’s board on February 18, 2026 approved a 3.6% increase in the quarterly cash dividend on common stock to $0.145 per share, payable March 16, 2026 to shareholders of record on March 5, 2026, and declared quarterly dividends on its 7.0% Fixed Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series A and C, payable May 20, 2026. The board also doubled the size of the company’s share repurchase authorization to $400 million, effective through February 28, 2027, replacing a $200 million program and underscoring a more aggressive capital return stance that may enhance earnings per share and support the stock for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONB) stock is a Hold with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old National Bancorp Capital stock, see the ONB Stock Forecast page.

Old National Bancorp Highlights Q4 2025 Investor Presentation

On February 9, 2026, Old National Bancorp’s executive officers prepared an investor presentation outlining a fourth-quarter 2025 investment thesis for use in upcoming meetings with investors and analysts. The materials underscore the bank’s goal of achieving top-quartile performance as a straightforward community-focused bank, while also detailing its use of non-GAAP financial measures to provide what management views as a clearer view of underlying operational performance and capital strength, including adjustments for merger-related charges, special assessments and pension-related items.

By highlighting these adjusted metrics alongside GAAP results, Old National aims to enhance comparability across periods and with peers, particularly as it continues to integrate completed and pending acquisitions and manage associated costs. The presentation also reiterates extensive risk disclosures around economic conditions, regulatory changes, merger execution and cybersecurity, signaling to stakeholders the breadth of factors that could materially affect future results despite management’s articulated strategic objectives and performance targets.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONB) stock is a Hold with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old National Bancorp Capital stock, see the ONB Stock Forecast page.

Old National Bancorp Capital Issues Subordinated Notes Offering

On January 29, 2026, Old National Bancorp completed a $450 million issuance of 5.768% fixed-to-floating rate subordinated notes due 2036, sold at a 0.75% underwriting discount for net proceeds of about $446.6 million before expenses, to be used for general corporate purposes. The notes pay a fixed 5.768% coupon until February 15, 2031, then float at a benchmark rate expected to be three‑month Term SOFR plus 220 basis points until their February 15, 2036 maturity, are redeemable at the company’s option starting in 2031 or upon specified regulatory and tax events subject to Federal Reserve approval, and are deeply subordinated—ranking junior to senior and secured debt and structurally subordinated to all liabilities of its subsidiaries—highlighting their role as Tier 2-style capital in the firm’s funding structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONB) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old National Bancorp Capital stock, see the ONB Stock Forecast page.

Old National Bancorp Capital Highlights Fixed Income Investor Presentation

On January 22, 2026, Old National Bancorp released a fixed income investor presentation for use in meetings with investors, analysts and other interested parties, offering summarized information on its consolidated business, operations, financial performance and trends. The materials emphasize the company’s use of non-GAAP financial measures—such as adjusted earnings per share, efficiency ratio, returns on equity and tangible equity, adjusted pre-provision net revenues, and adjusted noninterest income and expense—to isolate core operating performance from merger-related charges, pension-related items, FDIC special assessments and other notable items, which management views as enhancing period-to-period and peer comparability for stakeholders evaluating capital strength and operating results.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONB) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Old National Bancorp Capital stock, see the ONB Stock Forecast page.